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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Daily patterns of river herring (Alosa spp.) spawning migrations: Environmental drivers and variation among coastal streams in Massachusetts

The timing of life history events in many plants and animals depends on the seasonal fluctuations of specific environmental conditions. Climate change is altering environmental regimes and disrupting natural cycles and patterns across communities. Anadromous fishes that migrate between marine and freshwater habitats to spawn are particularly sensitive to shifting environmental conditions and thus are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, for many anadromous fish species the specific environmental mechanisms driving migration and spawning patterns are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the upstream spawning migrations of river herring Alosa spp. in 12 coastal Massachusetts streams. By analyzing long-term data sets (8–28 years) of daily fish counts, we determined the local influence of environmental factors on daily migration patterns and compared seasonal run dynamics and environmental regimes among streams. Our results suggest that water temperature was the most consistent predictor of both daily river herring presence–absence and abundance during migration. We found inconsistent effects of streamflow and lunar phase, likely due to the anthropogenic manipulation of flow and connectivity in different systems. Geographic patterns in run dynamics and thermal regimes suggest that the more northerly runs in this region are relatively vulnerable to climate change due to migration occurring later in the spring season, at warmer water temperatures that approach thermal maxima, and during a narrower temporal window compared to southern runs. The phenology of river herring and their reliance on seasonal temperature patterns indicate that populations of these species may benefit from management practices that reduce within-stream anthropogenic water temperature manipulations and maintain coolwater thermal refugia.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2025

Effects of climate on temporal variability in streamflow and salinity in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Study Region The Upper Colorado River Basin, a critical water source for more than 40 million people in the western United States. Study Focus Potential decreasing streamflow and elevated salinity concentrations threaten this resource. Climate variability has a large and well-studied effect on streamflow in the basin; however, the effect on salinity loading is less understood. This study investigates how snowpack dynamics, precipitation volume, and air temperature affect both streamflow and salinity at the basin scale from water years 1986–2021. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Climate variables explained 54 % of streamflow variability and 40 % of salinity variability across the basin. Both streamflow and salinity yields have declined in response to climate variability, but their response occurs on different timescales. Streamflow is more sensitive to snowpack, whereas salinity yields respond more strongly to antecedent precipitation. The delayed response of salinity yields may obscure the effects of both climate variability and salinity control measures. Residual analysis identified subbasins where the climate-salinity relation deviated from basin-wide patterns, suggesting that possible anthropogenic or other watershed processes may influence salinity loading in these areas. These novel findings underscore the importance of accounting for climate variability when evaluating long-term trends in streamflow and salinity.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.

Natural Hazards↗
USGS2017

Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

Public Summary We worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises. In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention. In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or artifacts and revealed substantial opportunities for different agencies to learn from each other and cooperate on common management goals. Follow up quantitative simulation modeling of grassland dynamics helped quantify the degree of change expected in vegetation production under the wide range of climate scenarios and suggested that (a) low grazing rates could be adversely affecting vegetation composition in the national park and (b) understanding of the management practices needed to maintain desired vegetation conditions is incomplete.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo↗
USGS2016

Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States—A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

In the southeastern United States, insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies and barrens—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, incorporating factors such as soil surface temperature, widely fluctuating hydrologic conditions, fires, flood scouring, and episodic droughts that may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous localized, site-level investigations have yielded important information about the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems; however, the literature from these investigations has generally remained fragmented. This report consists of literature syntheses for eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, concerning (1) physical geography, (2) ecological determinants of community structures including vegetation dynamics and regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, (3) contributions to regional and global biodiversity, (4) historical and current anthropogenic threats and conservation approaches, and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. This regional synthesis was undertaken to discern patterns across ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for future analyses of climate-change vulnerability. Findings from this synthesis indicate that, despite their importance to regional and global biodiversity, insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a variety of direct and indirect human alterations. In many cases, important questions remain concerning key determinants of ecosystem function. In particular, few empirical investigations in these ecosystems have focused on possible climate-change effects, despite the well-documented ecological effects of climate change at a global level. Long-term management of these ecosystems could benefit from increased scientific effort to characterize and quantify the linkages between changing environmental conditions and the ecological processes that sustain biodiversity.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗
USGS2022

Terrestrial ecosystem modeling with IBIS: Progress and future vision

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM) are powerful tools for studying complicated ecosystem processes and global changes. This review article synthesizes the developments and applications of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a DGVM, over the past two decades. IBIS has been used to evaluate carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, vegetation changes, land-atmosphere interactions, land-aquatic system integration, and climate change impacts. Here we summarize model development work since IBIS v2.5, covering hydrology (evapotranspiration, groundwater, lateral routing), vegetation dynamics (plant functional type, land cover change), plant physiology (phenology, photosynthesis, carbon allocation, growth), biogeochemistry (soil carbon and nitrogen processes, greenhouse gas emissions), impacts of natural disturbances (drought, insect damage, fire) and human induced land use changes, and computational improvements. We also summarize IBIS model applications around the world in evaluating ecosystem productivity, carbon and water budgets, water use efficiency, natural disturbance effects, and impacts of climate change and land use change on the carbon cycle. Based on this review, visions of future cross-scale, cross-landscape and cross-system model development and applications are discussed.

Journal of Resources and Ecology↗
USGS2017

Landsat-based trend analysis of lake dynamics across northern permafrost regions

Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here we present, a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM,ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69%), Western Alaska (-2.82%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e. upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region.

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2010

Ecoregion and land-use influence invertebrate and detritus transport from headwater streams

Summary 1. Habitats are often connected by fluxes of energy and nutrients across their boundaries. For example, headwater streams are linked to surrounding riparian vegetation through invertebrate and leaf litter inputs, and there is evidence that consumers in downstream habitats are subsidised by resources flowing from headwater systems. However, the strength of these linkages and the manner in which potential headwater subsidies vary along climatic and disturbance gradients are unknown. 2. We quantified the downstream transport of invertebrates, organic matter and inorganic sediment from 60 fishless headwater streams in the Wenatchee River Basin located on the eastern slope of the Cascade Range in Washington, U.S.A. Streams were classified into four groups (each n = 15) based on their position within two ecological subregions (wet and dry) and the extent of past timber harvest and road development (logged and unlogged). 3. Time and ecoregion were significant for all response variables as transport varied across sampling periods, and dry ecoregion streams displayed significantly higher mean values. Logged sites also generally showed higher mean transport, but only inorganic sediment transport was significantly higher in logged sites. Both ecoregion and land-use interacted significantly with time depending on the response variable. Differences among stream categories were driven by relatively low levels of transport in unlogged drainages of the wet ecoregion. Interestingly, unlogged dry ecoregion streams showed comparable transport rates to logged sites in the wet ecoregion. Dominance by deciduous riparian vegetation in all but unlogged streams in the wet ecoregion is a primary hypothesised mechanism determining transport dynamics in our study streams. 4. Understanding the quantity and variation of headwater subsidies across climate and disturbance gradients is needed to appreciate the significance of ecological linkages between headwaters and associated downstream habitats. This will enable the accurate assessment of resource management impacts on stream ecosystems. Predicting the consequences of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on headwater stream transport rates will require knowledge of how both local and regional factors influence these potential subsidies. Our results suggest that resources transported from headwater streams reflect both the meso-scale land-use surrounding these areas and the constraints imposed by the ecoregion in which they are embedded.

Washington↗
USGS2014

Late Holocene sea level variability and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Pre-twentieth century sea level (SL) variability remains poorly understood due to limits of tide gauge records, low temporal resolution of tidal marsh records, and regional anomalies caused by dynamic ocean processes, notably multidecadal changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examined SL and AMOC variability along the eastern United States over the last 2000 years, using a SL curve constructed from proxy sea surface temperature (SST) records from Chesapeake Bay, and twentieth century SL-sea surface temperature (SST) relations derived from tide gauges and instrumental SST. The SL curve shows multidecadal-scale variability (20–30 years) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), as well as the twentieth century. During these SL oscillations, short-term rates ranged from 2 to 4 mm yr −1 , roughly similar to those of the last few decades. These oscillations likely represent internal modes of climate variability related to AMOC variability and originating at high latitudes, although the exact mechanisms remain unclear. Results imply that dynamic ocean changes, in addition to thermosteric, glacio-eustatic, or glacio-isostatic processes are an inherent part of SL variability in coastal regions, even during millennial-scale climate oscillations such as the MCA and LIA and should be factored into efforts that use tide gauges and tidal marsh sediments to understand global sea level rise.

Paleoceanography↗
USGS2021

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Climate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley

Concept California’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited water supplies and climate change will impact the long-term viability of these intensively managed habitats. Objectives Forecast the distribution, abundance, and connectivity of surface water and managed wetland habitats, using 5 spatially explicit (270 m 2 ) climate/land use/water prioritization scenarios. Mapping potential future dynamic flooded habitat used by waterbirds and other wetland-dependent wildlife to inform management decisions. Methods We integrated a climate-driven hydrologic water use model with a spatially explicit land change model, to examine stakeholder-driven scenarios of future land change, climate, and water use and their impacts on future habitat availability. Results Declining water availability is the dominant driver of habitat loss across scenarios. The hot/dry scenarios showed the greatest declines in January flooded area by 2101—an important month for overwintering waterbirds. In contrast, higher water supplies in wet climates drive perennial cropland conversion and loss of potential habitat. Potential flooded cropland declined (25 and 33%) under warmer/wetter climate conditions due to this conversion to perennial crops, exposing habitat vulnerability. Conclusion Climate-driven loss of water availability had a greater impact on flooded habitat availability than land-use change. When combined, climate change and the conversion of potentially flooded cropland to perennial cropland will threaten future waterbird habitat particularly in January, the peak of the migratory bird season, even when habitat restoration goals are met. Stakeholder-informed scenario analysis can identify target areas for potential habitat change, vulnerability, and conservation.

California↗
USGS2026

Satellite time series analysis to quantify changing climax ciénegas using a state and transition model approach

Ciénegas are rare wetlands in arid landscapes of the North American Southwest, historically providing critical ecological and hydrological functions but increasingly threatened by changing climate and land use pressures. This study quantifies changes in ciénega condition and floodplain dynamics using a state-and-transition model (STM) informed by expert knowledge and remote sensing. Key factors include woody plant encroachment, water availability, and soil aggradation. We mapped 31 ciénegas with high-resolution imagery and analyzed Landsat data (1985–2023) to assess vegetation health and moisture using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII). Results show substantial interannual variability in phenology, water stress, and soil moisture, with regional drying and elevation strongly influencing ciénega resilience. We classified ciénegas into three functional states—healthy, desiccated, and dormant—and mapped their 2023 condition. Trend analyses indicate most ciénegas exhibit greening despite drought, though localized variability underscores the need for site-specific management. None are in a stable climax (reference) state; rather, they transition among states in response to external drivers. Increasing woody plant cover and surface drying, likely linked to declining regional water tables, favor deep-rooted species over wetland grasses—a pattern mirrored in adjacent control plots. Spatially explicit analysis revealed intra-ciénega variability often masked by aggregated data, highlighting the importance of high-resolution monitoring. Seasonal and long-term trends provide context for understanding ciénega dynamics, including degradation and restoration pathways. This study emphasizes the importance of groundwater conservation and demonstrates how remote sensing supports long-term monitoring. The STM framework offers a practical tool for adaptive management to sustain freshwater resources in arid environments.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2026

Climate-smart wetlands can mitigate the wetland-methane feedback loop

Climate change is intensifying wetland methane emissions, reinforcing a feedback loop that accelerates warming and threatens wetlands’ role as natural climate solutions. We propose climate-smart interventions for wetland protection, restoration, and management that explicitly account for methane dynamics. Targeted interventions can weaken methane feedback while safeguarding ecological functions and services.

One Earth↗
USGS2025

Seasonal stratification drives bioaccumulation of pelagic mercury sources in eutrophic lakes

Increased lake eutrophication, influenced by changing climate and land use, alters aquatic cycling and bioaccumulation of mercury (Hg). Additionally, seasonally dynamic lake circulation and plankton community composition can confound our ability to predict changes in biological Hg concentrations and sources. To assess temporal variation, we examined seasonal total Hg (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations and stable isotope values in seston, waters, sediments, and fish from two adjacent urban eutrophic lakes in Madison, Wisconsin. In Lake Monona, surface sediment THg concentrations were elevated due to comparably higher urbanization and historical industrial inputs, whereas Lake Mendota sediments had lower concentrations corresponding with largely agricultural and suburban surrounding watershed. Surface water THg and MeHg were similar between lakes and seasonally dynamic, but water profiles exhibited elevated concentrations in the meta- and hypolimnion, highlighting water column MeHg production. Seston MeHg concentrations were often highest at shoulder seasons, possibly owing to metalimnetic MeHg delivery, but also differences in biomass and water clarity. The ∆199Hg and δ202Hg values in seston were similar between lakes, despite differing sediment THg concentrations and values, suggesting a shared bioaccumulated source of MeHg. Measurement of MeHg stable isotopes further elucidated that seston and fish predominantly bioaccumulated pelagic-sourced MeHg.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2002

Potential effects of global warming on the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed and the San Francisco estuary

California's primary hydrologic system, the San Francisco estuary and its upstream watershed, is vulnerable to the regional hydrologic consequences of projected global climate change. Projected temperature anomalies from a global climate model are used to drive a combined model of watershed hydrology and estuarine dynamics. By 2090, a projected temperature increase of 2.1°C results in a loss of about half of the average April snowpack storage, with greatest losses in the northern headwaters. Consequently, spring runoff is reduced by 5.6 km 3 (∼20% of historical annual runoff), with associated increases in winter flood peaks. The smaller spring flows yield spring/summer salinity increases of up to 9 psu, with larger increases in wet years.

California↗
USGS2019

Endless forams: >34,000 modern planktonic foraminiferal images for taxonomic training and automated species recognition using convolutional neural networks

Accurate planktonic foraminiferal species identification is central to many paleoceanographic studies, from selecting specific species for geochemical research to elucidating the biotic dynamics of microfossil communities relevant to physical oceanographic processes and interconnected phenomena such as climate change. However, species identification varies among taxonomic schools, few resources exist to train students in the difficult task of discerning amongst closely related species, and the number of taxonomic experts is limited. Here, we take the first steps towards removing these rate-limiting steps by generating the first extensive image library of modern planktonic foraminifera, providing taxonomic training tools and resources, and automating species-level taxonomic identification of planktonic foraminifera via machine learning using convolution neural networks. Taxonomic experts identified 34,640 images of modern planktonic foraminifera to the species level. These images are served as species exemplars through the online portal Endless Forams (endlessforams.org) and a taxonomic training portal hosted on the citizen science platform Zooniverse (zooniverse.org/projects/ahsiang/endless-forams/). A supervised machine learning classifier was then trained with more than 24,000 images of planktonic foraminifera and tested using the remaining ~10,000 images (i.e., the validation set). The best classifier provided the correct species name for an image in the validation set 87.4% of the time. Together, these resources provide a rigorous set of training tools in modern planktonic foraminiferal taxonomy and a means of rapidly generating assemblage data via machine learning in future studies.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗
USGS1998

Influence of subglacial geology on the onset of a West Antarctic ice stream from aerogeophysical observations

Marine ice-sheet collapse can contribute to rapid sea-level rise . Today, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains an amount of ice equivalent to approximately six metres of sea-level rise, but most of the ice is in the slowly moving interior reservoir. A relatively small fraction of the ice sheet comprises several rapidly flowing ice streams which drain the ice to the sea. The evolution of this drainage system almost certainly governs the process of ice-sheet collapse . The thick and slow-moving interior ice reservoir is generally fixed to the underlying bedrock while the ice streams glide over lubricated beds at velocities of up to several hundred metres per year. The source of the basal lubricant — a water-saturated till overlain by a water system — may be linked to the underlying geology. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet rests over a geologically complex region characterized by thin crust, high heat flows, active volcanism and sedimentary basins . Here we use aerogeophysical measurements to constrain the geological setting of the onset of an active West Antarctic ice stream. The onset coincides with a sediment-filled basin incised by a steep-sided valley. This observation supports the suggestion that ice-stream dynamics — and therefore the response of the West Antarctice Ice Sheet to changes in climate — are strongly modulated by the underlying geology.

Nature↗