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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources
USGS2021

How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin?

Baseflow is critical to sustaining streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Therefore, effective water resources management requires estimates of baseflow response to climatic changes. This study provides the first estimates of projected baseflow changes from historical (1984 – 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry climatic conditions using a hybrid statistical-deterministic baseflow model. Total baseflow supplied to the Lower Colorado River Basin may decline by up to 33%, although this value may increase in the near future by 6% under warm/wet conditions. The percentage of baseflow lost during in-stream transport is projected to increase by 1 - 5% relative to historical conditions. Results highlight that climate driven changes in high elevation hydrology have impacts on basin-wide water availability. Study results have implications for human and ecological water availability in one of the most heavily managed watersheds in the world.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Climate-related drivers of migratory bird health in the south-central USA

Migratory birds are species of concern that play important ecological roles while also supporting recreational opportunities for the hunting and birdwatching public. Direct and indirect effects of climate variability, extremes, and change on migratory bird health manifest at the individual, population, species, and community levels. This review focuses on the effects of climate on migratory birds that spend part of their life cycles in the south-central USA. Although gaps in knowledge remain, prior studies provide a solid foundation to understand how climate affects migratory birds to inform management priorities and actions.

Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2024

Evaluating spatial coverage of the greater sage-grouse umbrella to conserve sagebrush-dependent species biodiversity within the Wyoming basins

Biodiversity is threatened due to land-use change, overexploitation, pollution, and anthropogenic climate change, altering ecosystem functioning around the globe. Protecting areas rich in biodiversity is often difficult without fully understanding and mapping species’ ecological niche requirements. As a result, the umbrella species concept is often applied, whereby conservation of a surrogate species is used to indirectly protect species that occupy similar ecological communities. One such species is the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), which has been used as an umbrella to conserve other species within the sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystem. Sagebrush-steppe ecosystems within the United States have experienced drastic loss, fragmentation, and degradation of remaining habitat, threatening sagebrush-dependent fauna, resulting in west-wide conservation efforts to protect sage-grouse habitats, and presumably other sagebrush wildlife. We evaluated the effectiveness of the greater sage-grouse umbrella to conserve biodiversity using data-driven spatial occupancy and abundance models for seven sagebrush-dependent (obligate or associated) species across the greater Wyoming Basins Ecoregional Assessment (WBEA) area (345,300 km 2 ) and assessed overlap with predicted sage-grouse occurrence. Predicted sage-grouse habitat from empirical models only partially (39–58%) captured habitats identified by predicted occurrence models for three sagebrush-obligate songbirds and 60% of biodiversity hotspots (richness of 4–6 species). Sage-grouse priority areas for conservation only captured 59% of model-predicted sage-grouse habitat, and only slightly fewer (56%) biodiversity hotspots. We suggest that the greater sage-grouse habitats may be partially effective as an umbrella for the conservation of sagebrush-dependent species within the sagebrush biome, and management actions aiming to conserve biodiversity should directly consider the explicit mapping of resource requirements for other taxonomic groups.

Land↗
USGS2019

An overview of the world’s plovers

Plovers of the genus Charadrius and their close allies are a diverse group, numbering 40 species, many with subspecies. They breed on all continents except Antarctica, in open, sparsely vegetated habitats of tundra and grasslands, and along shores of oceans, rivers, and inland lakes. Most are migratory, especially those breeding in arctic and temperate regions; others are partial migrants or sedentary. On migration, they are poorly studied and do not always correspond to the typical shorebird (i.e., sandpiper) pattern characterized by dense flocks concentrating at a few staging areas. Their foraging ecologies are rather uniform in that all species search visually for prey using a “run-stop-peck” maneuver. Breeding birds defend nesting and foraging territories while nonbreeding birds forage in loose flocks, which may stem from individuals minimizing interference with conspecifics while enhancing benefits of shared vigilance for predators. In breeding, they are conservative, laying two to four eggs at daily or longer intervals; replacement clutches are common, especially in species with prolonged breeding seasons. Precocial young hatch after comparatively long incubation that is correlated with development of neural centers associated with vision. Their mating systems are a mix of social monogamy and biparental care, with frequent sequential polygamy, especially in temperate and tropical taxa that breed for extended periods. Population sizes vary over several orders of magnitude; several species are highly endangered. Other species are abundant and widely distributed, although their populations may also be in decline. Regardless of their status, most plovers occupy habitats throughout the year that put them at conservation risk owing to anthropogenic factors including climate change, human disturbance, habitat loss, and predation. In this book, we draw from the expertise of an international group of researchers to outline the ecologies, behaviors, and challenges of plovers throughout the annual cycle so that decision makers can be most successful in their endeavors to conserve and manage populations.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

Marginal value analysis reveals shifting importance of migration habitat for waterfowl under a changing climate

Migratory waterfowl are an important resource for consumptive and non-consumptive users alike and provide tremendous economic value in North America. These birds rely on a complex matrix of public and private land for forage and roosting during migration and wintering periods, and substantial conservation effort focuses on increasing the amount and quality of target habitat. Yet, the value of habitat is a function not only of a site's resources but also of its geographic position and weather. To quantify this value, we used a continental-scale energetics-based model of daily dabbling duck movement to assess the marginal value of lands across the contiguous United States during the non-breeding period (September to May). We examined effects of eliminating each habitat node (32 × 32 km) in both a particularly cold and a particularly warm winter, asking which nodes had the largest effect on survival. The marginal value of habitat nodes for migrating dabbling ducks was a function of forage and roosting habitat but, more importantly, of geography (especially latitude and region). Irrespective of weather, nodes in the Southeast, central East Coast, and California made the largest positive contributions to survival. Conversely, nodes in the Midwest, Northeast, Florida, and the Pacific Northwest had consistent negative effects. Effects (positive and negative) of more northerly nodes occurred in late fall or early spring when climate was often severe and was most variable. Importance and effects of many nodes varied considerably between a cold and a warm winter. Much of the Midwest and central Great Plains benefited duck survival in a warm winter, and projected future warming may improve the value of lands in these regions, including many National Wildlife Refuges, for migrating dabbling ducks. Our results highlight the geographic variability in habitat value, as well as shifts that may occur in these values due to climate change.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2016

Waterfowl populations are resilient to immediate and lagged impacts of wildfires in the boreal forest

Summary 1. Wildfires are the principal disturbance in the boreal forest, and their size and frequency are increasing as the climate warms. Impacts of fires on boreal wildlife are largely unknown, especially for the tens of millions of waterfowl that breed in the region. This knowledge gap creates significant barriers to the integrative management of fires and waterfowl, leading to fire policies that largely disregard waterfowl. 2. Waterfowl populations across the western boreal forest of North America have been monitored annually since 1955 by the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (BPOP), widely considered the most extensive wildlife survey in the world. Using these data, we examined impacts of forest fires on abundance of two waterfowl guilds – dabblers and divers. We modelled waterfowl abundance in relation to fire extent (i.e. amount of survey transect burned) and time since fire, examining both immediate and lagged fire impacts. 3. From 1955 to 2014, >1100 fires in the western boreal forest intersected BPOP survey transects, and many transects burned multiple times. Nonetheless, fires had no detectable impact on waterfowl abundance; annual transect counts of dabbler and diver pairs remained stable from the pre- to post-fire period. 4. The absence of fire impacts on waterfowl abundance extended from the years immediately following the fire to those more than a decade afterwards. Likewise, the amount of transect burned did not influence waterfowl abundance, with similar pair counts from the pre- to post-fire period for small (1–20% burned), medium (21–60%) and large (>60%) burns. 5. Policy implications. Waterfowl populations appear largely resilient to forest fires, providing initial evidence that current policies of limited fire suppression, which predominate throughout much of the boreal forest, have not been detrimental to waterfowl populations. Likewise, fire-related management actions, such as prescribed burning or targeted suppression, seem to have limited impacts on waterfowl abundance and productivity. For waterfowl managers, our results suggest that adaptive models of waterfowl harvest, which annually guide hunting quotas, do not need to emphasize fires when integrating climate change effects.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2014

Body size and condition influence migration timing of juvenile Arctic grayling

Freshwater fishes utilising seasonally available habitats within annual migratory circuits time movements out of such habitats with changing hydrology, although individual attributes of fish may also mediate the behavioural response to environmental conditions. We tagged juvenile Arctic grayling in a seasonally flowing stream on the Arctic Coastal Plain in Alaska and recorded migration timing towards overwintering habitat. We examined the relationship between individual migration date, and fork length (FL) and body condition index (BCI) for fish tagged in June, July and August in three separate models. Larger fish migrated earlier; however, only the August model suggested a significant relationship with BCI. In this model, 42% of variability in migration timing was explained by FL and BCI, and fish in better condition were predicted to migrate earlier than those in poor condition. Here, the majority (33%) of variability was captured by FL with an additional 9% attributable to BCI. We also noted strong seasonal trends in BCI reflecting overwinter mass loss and subsequent growth within the study area. These results are interpreted in the context of size and energetic state-specific risks of overwinter starvation and mortality (which can be very high in the Arctic), which may influence individuals at greater risk to extend summer foraging in a risky, yet prey rich, habitat. Our research provides further evidence that heterogeneity among individuals within a population can influence migratory behaviour and identifies potential risks to late season migrants in Arctic beaded stream habitats influenced by climate change and petroleum development.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Final project peport for “Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to present – Phase 2: Focus on tamarisk vegetation”

Riparian ecosystems play a critical role in supporting wildlife habitats, maintaining water quality, and sustaining ecological resilience in arid landscapes. In the Upper Gila River level-4 Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-4; Identification Number – 1504) watershed of Arizona and New Mexico, and across areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe of the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter, Tribe/Tribal – entity; or Reservation - place), riparian ecosystems have been substantially altered by the widespread expansion of tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.), an invasive and non-native riparian species. Tamarisk has high water use and increased flammability, making it a growing concern as droughts intensify across the southwestern United States (U.S.). Recent research indicates that tamarisk is increasingly stressed under prolonged drought conditions, which can elevate wildfire risk and further degrade riparian habitat. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Geographic Science Center, in collaboration with the Tribe, developed remote sensing–based tools to map riparian vegetation composition and monitor vegetation condition over time. These tools enable accurate identification of tamarisk extent, detection of vegetation stress, and comparison with native species such as cottonwood and willow. This information directly supports restoration and management actions, including targeted tamarisk removal, protection of endangered species habitat, and prioritization of areas for native vegetation recovery. The tools also provide insight into how riparian vegetation responds to changing climate and hydrologic conditions, strengthening long-term planning for riparian forest management. Findings from this work demonstrate that riparian vegetation responses vary across river systems, indicating differences in plant composition and hydro-climatic conditions. Tamarisk on both the Gila and San Carlos Rivers generally exhibit greater declines in greenness in response to higher temperature as well as lower precipitation and river flow, while cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly sensitive to changes in discharge along the San Carlos River and respond more directly to both high and low flows, with more moderate responses to precipitation and temperature. By providing actionable, science-based information, this research supports climate adaptation planning, wildfire risk reduction, and improved riparian ecosystem health, with benefits that extend beyond the Reservation to regional water and wildlife conservation efforts.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2022

Restoration for resilience: The role of plant-microbial interactions and seed provenance in ecological restoration

With global efforts to restore grassland ecosystems, researchers and land management practitioners are working to reconstruct habitat that will persist and withstand stresses associated with climate change. Part of these efforts involve movement of plant material potentially adapted to future climate conditions from native habitat or seed production locations to a new restoration site. Restoration practice often follows this plant-centered, top-down approach. However, we suggest that restoration of belowground interactions, namely between plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi or rhizobia, is important for restoring resilient grasslands. In this synthesis we highlight these interactions and offer insight into how their restoration might be included in current grassland restoration practice. Ultimately, restoration of belowground interactions may contribute to grassland habitat that can withstand and respond to future climate uncertainties.

Natural Areas Journal↗
USGS2009

U.S. Geological Survey Methodology Development for Ecological Carbon Assessment and Monitoring

Ecological carbon sequestration refers to transfer and storage of atmospheric carbon in vegetation, soils, and aquatic environments to help offset the net increase from carbon emissions. Understanding capacities, associated opportunities, and risks of vegetated ecosystems to sequester carbon provides science information to support formulation of policies governing climate change mitigation, adaptation, and land-management strategies. Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 mandates the Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and assess the capacity of our nation's ecosystems for ecological carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas (GHG) flux mitigation. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) LandCarbon Project is responding to the Department of Interior's request to develop a methodology that meets specific EISA requirements.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2022

Medium spatial resolution mapping of global land cover and land cover change across multiple decades from Landsat

Land cover maps are essential for characterizing the biophysical properties of the Earth’s land areas. Because land cover information synthesizes a rich array of information related to both the ecological condition of land areas and their exploitation by humans, they are widely used for basic and applied research that requires information related to land surface properties (e.g., terrestrial carbon models, water balance models, weather, and climate models) and are core inputs to models and analyses used by natural resource scientists and land managers. As the Earth’s global population has grown over the last several decades rates of land cover change have increased dramatically, with enormous impacts on ecosystem services (e.g., biodiversity, water supply, carbon sequestration, etc.). Hence, accurate information related to land cover is essential for both managing natural resources and for understanding society’s ecological, biophysical, and resource management footprint. To address the need for high-quality land cover information we are using the global record of Landsat observations to compile annual maps of global land cover from 2001 to 2020 at 30 m spatial resolution. To create these maps we use features derived from time series of Landsat imagery in combination with ancillary geospatial data and a large database of training sites to classify land cover at annual time step. The algorithm that we apply uses temporal segmentation to identify periods with stable land cover that are separated by breakpoints in the time series. Here we provide an overview of the methods and data sets we are using to create global maps of land cover. We describe the algorithms used to create these maps and the core land cover data sets that we are creating through this effort, and we summarize our approach to accuracy assessment. We also present a synthesis of early results and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of our early map products and the challenges that we have encountered in creating global land cover data sets from Landsat. Initial accuracy assessment for North America shows good overall accuracy (77.0 ± 2.0% correctly classified) and 79.8% agreement with the European Space Agency (ESA) WorldCover product. The land cover mapping results we report provide the foundation for robust, repeatable, and accurate mapping of global land cover and land cover change across multiple decades at 30 m spatial resolution from Landsat.

Frontiers in Remote Sensing↗
USGS2006

Predicting woodrat ( Neotoma ) responses to anthropogenic warming from studies of the palaeomidden record

Aim The influence of anthropogenic climate change on organisms is an area of great scientific concern. Increasingly there is recognition that abrupt climate transitions have occurred over the late Quaternary; studies of these shifts may yield insights into likely biotic responses to contemporary warming. Here, we review research undertaken over the past decade investigating the response of Neotoma (woodrats) body size and distribution to climate change over the late Quaternary (the last 40,000 years). By integrating information from woodrat palaeomiddens, historical museum specimens and field studies of modern populations, we identify potential evolutionary responses to climate change occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, we characterize climatic thresholds in the past that led to local species extirpation and/or range alterations rather than in situ adaptation, and apply them to anticipate potential biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Location Middens were collected at about 55 sites scattered across the western United States, ranging from about 34 to 46° N and about 104 to 116° W, respectively. Data for modern populations were drawn from studies conducted in Death Valley, California, Missoula, Montana and the Sevilleta LTER site in central New Mexico. Methods We analysed faecal pellets from midden series collected at numerous cave sites across the western United States. From these we estimated body mass using techniques validated in earlier studies. We compared body size fluctuations at different elevations in different regions and integrated these results with studies investigating temperature–body size tradeoffs in modern animals. We also quantify the rapidity of the size changes over the late Quaternary to estimate the evolutionary capacity of woodrats to deal with predicted rates of anthropogenic climate change over the next century. Results We find remarkable similarities across the geographical range to late Quaternary climate change. In the middle of the geographical range woodrats respond in accordance to Bergmann's rule: colder climatic conditions select for larger body size and warmer conditions select for smaller body size. Patterns are more complicated at range boundaries, and local environmental conditions influence the observed response. In general, woodrat body size fluctuates with approximately the same amplitude and frequency as climate; there is a significant and positive correlation between woodrat body size and generalized climate proxies (such as ice core records). Woodrats have achieved evolutionary rates of change equal to or greater than those needed to adapt in situ to anthropogenic climate change. Main conclusions In situ body size evolution is a likely outcome of climate change, and such shifts are part of a normal spectrum of adaptation. Woodrats appear to be subject to ongoing body size selection in response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Allometric considerations suggest that these shifts in body size lead to substantial changes in the physiology, life history and ecology of woodrats, and on their direct and indirect interactions with other organisms in the ecosystem. Our work highlights the importance of a finely resolved and long-term record in understanding biotic responses to climatic shifts.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2019

Soil warming effects on tropical forests with highly weathered soils

The tropics are a region encircling the equator, delineated to the north by the Tropic of Cancer (23°26′14.0″N) and to the south by the Tropic of Capricorn (23°26′14.0″S). While we often think of the tropics as consistently warm and wet throughout the year, in reality, the tropics maintain a myriad of climates. Of the 116 Holdridge life zones (a global bioclimatic classification scheme), the tropics contain more life zones than the sum of all the planet's other geographic regions combined ( Holdridge, 1967 ). In addition to high climatic diversity, the tropics support a wide range of parent materials, landforms, geomorphic characteristics, and soil ages, and maintain all 12 soil types of the USDA soil taxonomy system ( Palm et al., 2007 ; Porder et al., 2007 ; Quesada et al., 2010 ; Richter and Babbar, 1991 ; Sanchez, 1977 ; Soil Survey Staff, 2006 ; Townsend et al., 2008 ). Accordingly, there is no single representative tropical ecosystem. Given the diversity of tropical biomes, this chapter will focus specifically on tropical forested ecosystems and their responses to warming because of their global importance, potential sensitivity to change, and the fact that an improved understanding of how these ecosystems may respond to warmer climate conditions is of significant importance to ecology and society. Furthermore, while generally considering all tropical forest types, emphasis in this chapter is on the humid tropics for which we have most data.

Book chapter↗
USGS2005

Implications of global climatic change and energy cost and availability for the restoration of the Mississippi delta

Over the past several thousand years, inputs from the Mississippi River formed the Mississippi delta, an area of about 25,000 km 2 . Over the past century, however, there has been a high loss of coastal wetlands of about 4800 km 2 . The main causes of this loss are the near complete isolation of the river from the delta, mostly due to the construction of flood control levees, and pervasive hydrological disruption of the deltaic plain. There is presently a large-scale State-Federal program to restore the delta that includes construction of water control structures in the flood control levees to divert river water into deteriorating wetlands and pumping of dredged sediment, often for long distances, for marsh creation. Global climate change and decreasing availability and increasing cost of energy are likely to have important implications for delta restoration. Coastal restoration efforts will have to be more intensive to offset the impacts of climate change including accelerated sea level rise and changes in precipitation patterns. Future coastal restoration efforts should also focus on less energy-intensive, ecologically engineered management techniques that use the energies of nature as much as possible. Diversions may be as important for controlling salinity as for providing sediments and nutrients for restoring coastal wetlands. Energy-intensive pumping-dredged sediments for coastal restoration will likely become much more expensive in the future.

Louisiana↗
USGS2019

Assessing plant production responses to climate across water-limited regions using Google Earth Engine

(Munson) Climate variability and change acting at broad scales can lead to divergent changes in plant production at local scales. Quantifying how production responds to variation in climate at local scales is essential to understand underlying ecological processes and inform land management decision-making, but has historically been limited in spatiotemporal scale based on the use of discrete ground-based measurements or coarse resolution satellite observations. With the advent of cloud-based computing through Google Earth Engine (GEE), production responses to climate can be evaluated across broad landscapes though time at a resolution useful for ecological and land management applications. Here, GEE was employed to synthesize a multi-platform Landsat time series (1988 – 2014) and evaluate relationships between the soil-adjusted vegetation index (a proxy for plant production) and climate across deserts and plant communities of the southwestern U.S. A “climate pivot point” approach was adopted in GEE to assess the trade-off between production responses to increasing wetness and resistances to drought at 30-m resolution. Consistent with a long-term seasonal climate gradient, production was most related to climate variance during the cool-season in the western deserts, during the warm-season in the eastern deserts, and equally related to both seasons within several desert areas. Communities dominated by grasses and deciduous trees displayed large production responses to an increase in wetness and low resistances to water deficit, while shrublands and evergreen woodlands had variable responses and high drought resistances. Production in plant communities that spanned multiple deserts responded differently to seasonal climate variability in each desert. Defining these plant production sensitivities to climate at 30-m resolution in GEE advances forecasts of how long-term climate trajectories may affect carbon storage, wildlife habitat, and the vulnerability of water-limited ecosystems.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2019

Evaluating environmental change and behavioral decision-making for sustainability policy using an agent-based model: A case study for the Smoky Hill River Watershed, Kansas

Sustainability has been at the forefront of the environmental research agenda of the integrated anthroposphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere since the last century and will continue to be critically important for future environmental science. However, linking humans and the environment through effective policy remains a major challenge for sustainability research and practice. Here we address this gap using an agent-based model (ABM) for a coupled natural and human systems in the Smoky Hill River Watershed (SHRW), Kansas, USA. For this freshwater-dependent agricultural watershed with a highly variable flow regime influenced by human-induced land-use and climate change, we tested the support for an environmental policy designed to conserve and protect fish biodiversity in the SHRW. We develop a proof of concept interdisciplinary ABM that integrates field data on hydrology, ecology (fish richness), social-psychology (value-belief-norm) and economics, to simulate human agents' decisions to support environmental policy. The mechanism to link human behaviors to environmental changes is the social-psychological sequence identified by the value-belief-norm framework and is informed by hydrological and fish ecology models. Our results indicate that (1) cultural factors influence the decision to support the policy; (2) a mechanism modifying social-psychological factors can influence the decision-making process; (3) there is resistance to environmental policy in the SHRW, even under potentially extreme climate conditions; and (4) the best opportunities for policy acceptance were found immediately after extreme environmental events. The modeling approach presented herein explicitly links biophysical and social science has broad generality for sustainability problems.

Kansas↗
USGS2017

Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States

Growing human and ecological costs due to increasing wildfire are an urgent concern in policy and management, particularly given projections of worsening fire conditions under climate change. Thus, understanding the relationship between climatic variation and fire activity is a critically important scientific question. Different factors limit fire behavior in different places and times, but most fire-climate analyses are conducted across broad spatial extents that mask geographical variation. This could result in overly broad or inappropriate management and policy decisions that neglect to account for regionally specific or other important factors driving fire activity. We developed statistical models relating seasonal temperature and precipitation variables to historical annual fire activity for 37 different regions across the continental United States and asked whether and how fire-climate relationships vary geographically, and why climate is more important in some regions than in others. Climatic variation played a significant role in explaining annual fire activity in some regions, but the relative importance of seasonal temperature or precipitation, in addition to the overall importance of climate, varied substantially depending on geographical context. Human presence was the primary reason that climate explained less fire activity in some regions than in others. That is, where human presence was more prominent, climate was less important. This means that humans may not only influence fire regimes but their presence can actually override, or swamp out, the effect of climate. Thus, geographical context as well as human influence should be considered alongside climate in national wildfire policy and management.

PNAS↗
USGS2019

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional-scale species distribution models — A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Species distribution models (SDM) that rely on regional-scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local-scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land-use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional-scale variables to drive patterns of species distribution. Incorporating these human-induced factors into SDMs remains a major research challenge, in part because spatial variability in these factors occurs at fine scales, rendering prediction over regional extents problematic. Here, we used big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) as a model species to explore whether including human-induced factors improves the fit of the SDM. We applied a Bayesian hurdle spatial approach using 21,753 data points of field-sampled vegetation obtained from the LANDFIRE program to model sagebrush occurrence and cover by incorporating fire history metrics and restoration treatments from 1980 to 2015 throughout the Great Basin of North America.

Global Change Biology↗