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Radiogenic strontium- and uranium-isotope tracers of water-rock interactions and hydrothermal flow in the Upper Geyser Basin, Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field, USA

Natural radiogenic isotopes (primarily 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) from hot springs in the Upper Geyser Basin of the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field and associated rocks were used to evaluate groundwater flow patterns, water-rock reactions, and the extent of mixing between various groundwater sources. Thermal waters have very low uranium concentrations and 234 U/ 238 U activity ratios near 1.0, which limit their utility as tracers in this reducing setting. Thermal waters have higher Sr concentrations (<22 ng/g) and a wide range of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values that vary both temporally at individual discharge sites and between adjacent springs, indicating that conduits tap different subsurface reservoirs to varying degrees. Sr from local rhyolites have 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions that bound the range of values observed in groundwater throughout the basin. Non-boiling springs on the west flank of the basin discharge water with low 87 Sr/ 86 Sr consistent with flow through young volcanic rocks exposed at the surface. Boiling springs in the central basin have higher 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values reflecting interactions with older, more radiogenic volcanic rocks. Variability in upwelling thermal waters requires mixing with a low 87 Sr/ 86 Sr component derived from young lava or glacial sediments, or more likely, from deeper sources of hot groundwater circulating through buried Lava Creek Tuff having intermediate 87 Sr/ 86 Sr. Isotope data constrain basin-wide output of thermal water to 110–140 kg·s −1 . Results underscore the utility of radiogenic Sr isotopes as valuable tracers of hydrothermal flow patterns and improve the understanding of temperature-dependent water-rock reactions in one of the largest continental hydrothermal systems on Earth.

Wyoming

Exploration for blind geothermal systems in the eastern Great Basin of Utah: An update on the “Lund North” INGENIOUS detailed study site

Existing geothermal production in Utah is commonly collocated with surficial expressions of geothermal heat including active hot springs and hot spring deposits. However, geothermal potential across the Great Basin region is thought to be much higher for hidden or blind geothermal systems. Accordingly, exploration techniques that can locate geothermal resources that lack surface thermal features could support future development of these systems. The goal of the INGENIOUS project is to reduce exploration risk and discover new, economically viable hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin region. This paper summarizes the efforts and preliminary results of blind geothermal resource prospecting in Utah as part of the larger INGENIOUS project. The Lund North site in the Basin and Range province of southwest Utah was designated as the fourth detailed study site for the project. The site was initially identified from the preliminary Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) geothermal favorability map, which is based on various data elements, and the identification of favorable structural settings across Utah. This site contains existing legacy data including a thermal gradient borehole with a heat-flow value exceeding 220 mW/m 2 . New data collected at this site include terrestrial gravity, magnetotellurics, transient electromagnetics, fluid geochemistry, geologic mapping, UAV-based lidar, paleomagnetism, aeromagnetic surveys, and a shallow temperature survey. Preliminary data and model interpretations corroborate the presence of a large, east-dipping, northeast-southwest-trending normal fault on the edge of a typical Basin and Range graben. Quaternary fault mapping refined by high-resolution lidar surveys suggests a complex step over fault geometry. Utilizing multi-disciplinary datasets for further site assessment at Lund North will facilitate the development of a local-scale PFA and geothermal conceptual model. This new data will be used to site successive thermal gradient drilling to verify heat flow with temperatures at depth at the Lund North site and further investigate the existence of a local geothermal system.

Utah

Updating the crustal fault model for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model for Alaska

We present the crustal fault model for Alaska, based on geologic observations, as a primary input for the 2023 revision of the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model. We update the 2013 Alaska Quaternary fault and fold database to produce a simplified model of 105 fault sections and four fault zone polygons with basic geologic parameters including slip sense and rate. Significant updates include the following: (1) a slip rate of ∼53 mm/year on the Queen Charlotte Fault indicating it accommodates all of the plate boundary motion; (2) quantified slip rates on megathrust splay faults in the southern Prince William Sound region and near Kodiak Island; (3) improved details of structures in the Chugach-St. Elias orogen; (4) revision of the Castle Mountain Fault from right-lateral slip to a predominantly reverse fault; (5) improved Interior Alaska tectonic models that clarify relationships between the Denali, Totschunda, and thrust faults on both sides of the Alaska Range; (6) identified large earthquake sources in the eastern Brooks Range; and (7) omission of the Chatham Strait section of the Denali Fault. The fault model underscores that the collision of the Yakutat microplate is the dominant driver of active crustal faulting in most of Alaska.

Alaska, Yukon

Refining the earthquake history of south-central Alaska through lake records

The Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone (AASZ) is one of the world's most seismically active plate boundaries and the source of the 1964 M w 9.2 Great Alaska earthquake–the second largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the world. Understanding the nature and frequency of such earthquakes is necessary for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, but instrumental and historical records that span less than 150 years are too short to allow a statistically reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence times. This calls for studies of evidence of past earthquakes, extending the earthquake catalog further back in time. Subduction-zone paleoseismology in south-central Alaska is predominantly based on coastal evidence of land-level changes and tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes and preserved in the geological record. A complementary approach is lacustrine paleoseismology, which is still a relatively young discipline in Alaska. However, globally, lake basins are well-established high-resolution and continuous recorders of paleoseismic activity along subduction zones, relying on the identification of underwater landslide deposits and turbidites generated by seismic shaking. As a result, lake basins not only register ground shaking from megathrust earthquakes, but also from intraslab and crustal earthquakes, which are typically not accompanied by significant land-level changes. In this review paper, we combine coastal and lacustrine paleoseismology approaches to refine the south-central Alaskan earthquake history by comparing the paleoseismic records from two lakes (i.e., Eklutna Lake, located in the Chugach Mountain Range, and Skilak Lake, situated on the Kenai Peninsula) with the coastal and crustal earthquake catalog in Alaska. The resulting age ranges of all known megathrust earthquakes involving the Alaskan megathrust between the Kodiak and Prince William Sound (PWS) sections are more precise and accurate for the last 1.3 kyrs BP than the previously published age ranges from coastal records. As a result, this study supports the following key conclusions: (1) The 1964 CE earthquake was an exceptionally strong and unique event in the last 2000 years, rupturing the PWS, Kenai, Barren Islands, and Kodiak sections simultaneously. (2) The high-resolution and seasonal markings of the varved lake records now disentangle for the first time closely timed earthquakes, which was not possible based on the coastal evidence alone. (3) No persistent megathrust rupture boundaries exist. So, the possibility of a full rupture of the entire eastern AASZ, from PWS to Semidi cannot be excluded. (4) The rupture pattern in the eastern AASZ reveals superimposed cycles of multi-asperity ruptures (1964 earthquake) and clustered complementary partial ruptures, or rupture cascades. (5) The PWS section hosts the largest asperity in the eastern AASZ. (6) The shaking record of megathrust earthquakes indicates a time-dependent (quasiperiodic) behavior for the study area, but the observation of complementary clusters means that the hazards will not drop to zero but instead may even increase for a neighboring section. (7) The time-independent behavior of intraplate earthquakes implies that the intraslab hazard did not decrease following the 2016 and 2018 earthquakes. This study utilizes an integrated approach for subduction zone paleoseismology as a solution for unraveling recurrence and rupture patterns in Alaska, which can be applied worldwide.

Alaska

Migration of seismicity from the mantle to the upper crust beneath Harrat Lunayyir volcanic field, Saudi Arabia

Harrat Lunayyir is a volcanic field in Saudi Arabia that experienced a Mw~5.4 earthquake driven by an upper-crustal dike intrusion in May 2009. This volcanic field has exhibited numerous forms of volcanic seismicity both prior to and since the 2009 dike intrusion. Significantly, earthquakes within the lithospheric mantle and, rarely, the lower crust are present in the two-decade long seismicity catalog of Harrat Lunayyir. Here we analyze 24 years of volcanic seismicity at Harrat Lunayyir from 1998 to 2022. We find that: 1) precursory seismicity began at least eight years prior to the 2009 event, with a particularly notable seismic episode one year prior; 2) lithospheric mantle seismicity is highly localized in space and in time, largely occurring in discrete sequences lasting on the order of a few hours to a few days; 3) one seismic sequence clearly migrates upward from the lithospheric mantle to the upper crust, including seismicity within the nominally ductile lower crust; 4) crustal seismicity has been slowly declining over time; and 5) lithospheric-mantle seismicity does not show any apparent decline with time. From these observations we infer that the seismicity is driven by magmatic fluids or volatiles, and seismic monitoring of this volcanic field should continue into the future.

Harrat Lunayyir volcanic field

Rapid hydrothermal triggering of induced seismicity at the Coso Geothermal Field

The long-term producing Coso Geothermal Field (CGF) in California operates over 100 wells tapping into a reservoir characterized by an extensive fracture network, complex fluid pathways, and regular seismic activity. Understanding the interaction between seismicity and injection can shed important light on the hydrothermal characteristics of the field. Here, we analyze 15 years of local seismic and daily operational data from the CGF, identifying a strong correlation between short-term increase in seismicity rate and seasonal volumetric and temperature variations in the reinjected fluid. Furthermore, the seismic footprint during peak injection of colder fluids reveals a near-instantaneous response up to 2 km away from the injection well, too rapid for pore pressure diffusion alone. This short-term and distant response is observed to have directional preference, indicating structural or permeability anisotropy within the reservoir. Additionally, the seismic response correlates with the initial volumetric increase of colder fluids, but also with temperature decrease during stable injection periods, suggesting thermal effects alone can play an important role in triggering distant seismicity.

California

Evidence of nitrate attenuation in intertidal and subtidal groundwater in a subterranean estuary at a Cape Cod embayment, East Falmouth, Massachusetts, 2015–16

Nitrogen dynamics in intertidal and nearshore subtidal groundwater (subterranean estuary) adjacent to the Seacoast Shores peninsula, Falmouth, Massachusetts, were investigated during 2015–16 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The peninsula is a densely populated residential area with septic systems and cesspools that are substantial sources of nitrogen to groundwater. The study area is in the Eel River, an estuarine saltwater embayment connected to the ocean adjacent to the western shore of the peninsula, that was the subject of an earlier study by Colman and others (2018, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20185095 ) on nitrogen transport and transformations in groundwater between onshore and offshore locations. The previous study documented the distribution of nitrate concentrations and nitrate attenuation reactions in fresh groundwater beneath the peninsula and the estuary. The current study extended those observations with more detailed sampling and analysis of shallow groundwater from wells near discharge sites beneath the estuary. The current field investigation included sampling of existing wells and installation and sampling of clusters of wells and temporary sampling points in the subterranean estuary, including (1) shallow transects 0.3 to 1.2 meters (m) deep extending from 1 to 13.5 m offshore and (2) deeper wells (from 1.83 to 4.88 m deep) extending from 4.3 to 14.3 m offshore. Measurements of hydraulic-head gradients 2–5 m below the sediment/water interface in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal zones indicated that groundwater flow generally was upwards (towards the estuary) under all tide conditions in October 2016. The magnitude of the gradient was greatest during low tide conditions, indicating that groundwater discharge likely decreased during high tides. Measurements of specific conductance in shallow groundwater in the subterranean estuary in three transects perpendicular to shore were consistent with the existence of saltwater flow cells (infiltration of overlying saline water, mixing with fresh groundwater, and discharge to the overlying saline water) in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal regions. The size of these flow cells was variable in space and time and dependent on the elevation of the tide (spring or neap). At this location in the Eel River subterranean estuary, and offshore to at least 13.5 m, offshore flow of fresh groundwater apparently prevented a deeper saltwater wedge from discharging to the surface. Nitrate concentrations in shallow groundwater (30 to 122 centimeters [cm] depth) were variable in space and time, ranging from not detectable to 600 micromoles per liter (μmol/L) (8.4 milligrams per liter as N), and were highest in June 2016 at depths from 61 to 122 cm below the sediment/water interface and from 4 to 9 m offshore. Nitrate generally was not detectable in saline shallow groundwater at 30-cm depth or at any depth from 30 to 122 cm from 10 to 13.5 m offshore. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were suboxic (less than 16 μmol/L) in 60 percent of the sampled subterranean groundwater beneath the intertidal and subtidal zones. In the remaining sites, the range of dissolved oxygen concentrations was from 18 to 272 μmol/L and the median concentration was 43 μmol/L. Evidence for microbial nitrate reduction (denitrification and possibly anammox) was provided by the distribution of the reaction product nitrogen gas (excess N 2 , or N 2MIC ), as determined from analysis of the dissolved nitrogen gas and argon gas (Ar) concentrations in groundwater samples. Excess nitrogen gas provided evidence for nitrate reduction in shallow groundwater below the subtidal and, to a lesser extent, intertidal zones adjacent to the Seacoast Shores peninsula. These zones, where evidence for nitrate reduction was detected, were in fresh and brackish groundwater near subtidal or intertidal saltwater cells where discharging fresh groundwater mixed with infiltrating saline water. Infiltrating seawater may have supplied organic carbon, one of several potential electron donors that are required for denitrification. Other potential electron donors, such as organic carbon, iron, manganese, hydrogen, methane, ammonium, elemental sulfur, or sulfide phases, may have been supplied by the estuarine sediments. Drainage from surface runoff near the shore also may have supplied organic carbon to fresh groundwater near the intertidal saltwater cell. The highest amounts of nitrate converted to excess nitrogen gas were estimated to be in the range of 230 to 430 μmol/L in nearly fresh groundwater near the subtidal saltwater cell at depths of 61 to 122 cm below the sediment/water interface and from 10 to 13.5 m offshore. Evidence of denitrification within 10 m of the shore was sparse (generally limited to less than 50 μmol/L of N 2 -N) despite the presence of high nitrate concentrations. The spatial distribution of estimated nitrate reduction in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal fresh and brackish groundwater may be related to local variability in the distribution of reactive electron donors in those zones. Variations in the amount of nitrate reduction to nitrogen gas were not clearly related to potential aqueous electron donors such as dissolved organic carbon, nor to potential reaction products such as alkalinity, but may have been controlled by combinations of aqueous and solid-phase reactants. The distribution of relatively shallow fresh groundwater containing nitrate could indicate potential nitrate discharge areas in the lower intertidal zone and uncertain locations farther offshore; however, the data did not extend all the way to the sediment/water interface or to the offshore freshwater limit. This study confirmed substantial loss of nitrate from some of the fresh and brackish groundwater in shallow subestuarine sediments prior to discharge but did not quantify how much nitrate eventually discharged to the estuary.

Massachusetts

Dissolved arsenic concentrations in surface waters within the upper portions of the Klamath River Basin, Oregon and California

Arsenic toxicity is an environmental health problem. Levels of arsenic in surface waters at some locations in the Klamath River Basin in southern Oregon and northern California can exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standard for drinking water. There are both anthropogenic and natural sources of arsenic. The Klamath River Basin consists primarily of volcanic deposits and contains an underground geothermal system with hot springs and warm water wells, all known natural sources of arsenic. Anthropogenic sources of arsenic are related to the agricultural use of herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides. Surface water arsenic levels can also be affected by fertilizer amendments, evaporative concentration, oxygen-level depletion, and various geochemical transformations that can increase arsenic mobilization. In this study by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation, dissolved concentrations of arsenic, copper, and lead were measured in surface waters at 39 unique sites within the upper portions of the Klamath River Basin between 2018 and 2022. In every year, except 2022, sites were sampled four times between April and November. Surface-water arsenic concentrations varied up to four-orders of magnitude among sites. Median arsenic concentration was lowest at Cherry Creek (0.03 micrograms per liter [μg/L]) and highest at Wood Kimball Spring (36.7 μg/L), two sites located north of Upper Klamath Lake. The highest arsenic concentrations (17.4±4.9 μg/L, n =3) were found in drain sites (defined here as a waterbody returning used irrigation water) while the lowest arsenic concentrations were found in an artesian well (0.8 μg/L, n =1). The elevated arsenic concentrations of the drain sites suggest that arsenic might be concentrated or mobilized by agricultural activities, water re-use practices, and (or) by geochemical processes occurring around water stored in drains (that is, in the water column and across sediment water boundaries). A source of arsenic in drain water in the Klamath Strait Drain area includes water used for irrigation originating from Ady Canal. Other potential sources include groundwater, geothermal water, and local soils and sediments. Seasonal differences in surface-water arsenic concentrations were detected at 13 sites, 10 of which had higher arsenic concentrations in summer than in either spring or fall. The sites sampled around Upper Klamath Lake, the impounded rivers, one of the two canal sites, and 5 of the 14 river sites had higher surface-water arsenic concentrations in the summer than in either spring or fall. Surface-water arsenic concentrations from groundwater sources (that is, springs and in the artesian well) did not vary significantly among seasons (p-values greater than 0.1). Median surface-water concentrations of copper and lead ranged from 0.03 to 3.7 μg/L, and from 0.013 to 0.175 μg/L ( n =2–18), respectively. Dissolved concentrations of both metals were below acute toxicity endpoints reported by the EPA for freshwater animals. Surface-water arsenic concentrations varied independently from corresponding changes in surface-water lead or copper concentrations. However, arsenic concentrations measured in bed-sediment samples collected from a subset of sites located north of Upper Klamath Lake correlated strongly and significantly with the corresponding sedimentary lead concentrations ( p =0.015). Aqueous arsenic speciation measured in a subset of sites in 2019 and 2022 showed that all the arsenic existed as arsenic (V), the most oxidized arsenic species, and presumably, the least toxic. The highest proportions of arsenite (As(III)), the presumably most toxic arsenic species, relative to total arsenic concentrations were found at drain sites. Our assessment of dissolved arsenic concentrations in various surface-water bodies in the Upper Klamath River Basin reveals geographical areas of consistently low (below 2.1 μg/L), moderate (below 10 μg/L) and high (above 10 μg/L) surface-water arsenic concentrations. South of Upper Klamath Lake, surface-water arsenic concentrations were consistently higher than 20 μg/L at two drain sites located in an area of predominant agricultural land use with extensive water re-use practices. North of Upper Klamath Lake, surface-water arsenic concentrations greater than 20 μg/L were consistently measured at sites with limited nearby agricultural activities, suggesting a geogenic source. The consistently high arsenic levels from the Wood River at Jackson F. Kimball State Park, Fort Creek, and Crooked Creek, which are sites located at or near headwater spring sources, suggest a natural background source of arsenic. Water flowing downstream from this area could be a potential source of arsenic to Upper Klamath Lake and the Upper Klamath River.

California, Oregon

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the San Joaquin Valley Kern County subbasin domestic-supply aquifer study unit, 2022—California GAMA Priority Basin Project

The quality of water accessed by domestic wells (here referred to as domestic groundwater resources) in the San Joaquin Valley Kern County subbasin (basin number 5-022.14) was assessed as part of the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project (GAMA-PBP), in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board. Kern County is at the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley in California, and about 30,000 residents are estimated to use privately owned domestic wells for drinking water. Domestic wells typically draw from shallower parts of the aquifer system than public-supply wells and can be more vulnerable to effects from surface activities. Kern County is host to a highly productive agricultural industry, with Bakersfield as the main urban center. The Kern River runs through Bakersfield from the southern Sierra Nevada and intersects the Kern Water Bank, one of the largest groundwater banking operations in California, at the Kern River Intertie. The section of the Kern River running through the Kern Water Bank is dry most years. Kern County also encompasses some of the most productive oil and gas basins in California, with extensive underground and surface disposal of oil-field wastewater. This study was based on data collected from 33 sites sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey for the GAMA-PBP in 2022. To provide context for the water quality assessment, measured concentrations were compared to regulatory and non-regulatory health-based and aesthetic benchmarks. A grid-based method was used to estimate the proportions of the groundwater resources used for domestic-supply wells that have water-quality constituents below (low relative concentration), approaching (moderate relative concentration), or above (high relative concentration) benchmark concentrations. At least one measured constituent with a regulatory benchmark was categorized as having a high relative concentration in 72 percent of the aquifer area used for domestic groundwater resources. Inorganic constituents were detected at high concentrations in 45 percent of the domestic groundwater resources, and the constituents detected above regulatory benchmarks were arsenic, nitrate, and uranium. At least one organic constituent was detected at high concentrations in 41 percent of the domestic groundwater resources, and the constituents exceeding regulatory benchmarks were the fumigants 1,2,3-trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP), 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (dibromochloropropane [DBCP]), 1,2-dibromoethane (EDB), and the per-and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS) perfluorooctanesulfonate. The disinfection by-product chloroform, the fumigant 1,2-dichloropropane, the herbicides atrazine and hexazinone, and the herbicide degradates 2-chloro-6-ethylamino-4-amino-s-triazine, 2-chloro-4,6-diamino-s-triazine, 4-hydroxychlorothalonil, and metolachlor sulfonic acid were detected in more than 10 percent of domestic groundwater resources, but concentrations did not exceed regulatory benchmarks. Land use, groundwater age (fraction of modern water and mean age), and geochemical environment (oxic or anoxic conditions, pH, alkalinity) were associated with the distribution of high relative concentrations of inorganic and organic constituents. Young, oxygenated water is recharged along the Kern River and adjacent recharge ponds, or as irrigation water in the agricultural areas. High concentrations of nitrate and volatile organic compounds occurred in the oxic water in urban and agricultural areas. The fumigants 1,2,3-TCP, DBCP, and EDB were reported throughout the agricultural areas, whereas chloroform, tetrachloroethene, and PFAS were associated with urban land use. High uranium concentrations were associated with young, modern groundwater in agricultural areas with low pH and high bicarbonate. Total dissolved solids increased with distance from the Kern River, as the contributions of fresh, oxic water decreased. High concentrations of arsenic were present in older anoxic or alkaline groundwater away from areas of recharge. Overall, groundwater age, redox conditions, and the source of recharge as a result of different land uses contribute to large aquifer-scale portions of domestic groundwater resources that exceed health-based benchmarks for nitrate, uranium, and fumigant concentrations.

California

Produced water geochemistry from hydraulically stimulated Niobrara Formation petroleum wells: Origin of salinity and temporal perspectives on treatment and reuse

Produced water (i.e., a mixture of returned injection fluids and geologic formation brines) represents the largest volumetric waste stream associated with petroleum production in the United States. As such, produced water has been the focus of intense study with emphasis on understanding the geologic origin of the fluids, environmental impacts of unintended or intentional release, disposal concerns, and their commodity (e.g., lithium) potential. However, produced water geochemistry from many active petroleum plays remain poorly constrained leading to knowledge gaps associated with the origin of brine salinity and parameters (e.g., radium levels) that can impact treatment, disposal, and possible reuse. Here we evaluate the major ion geochemistry, radium concentrations, and stable water isotope composition of ~120 produced water samples collected from 17 producing unconventional petroleum wells in Weld County, Colorado from the Late Cretaceous Niobrara Formation. This sample set encompasses eight produced water time series from four new wells across production days 0 to ~365 and from four established wells across production days ~1000 to ~1700. Additionally, produced water from nine other established Niobrara Formation wells were sampled at discrete time points ranging from day 458 to day 2256, as well as hydraulic fracturing input fluids. These results expand the available Niobrara Formation produced water geochemical data, previously limited to few wells sampled within the first year of production, allowing for the heterogeneity of major ions and radium to be evaluated. Furthermore, we explore the geochemical relationships between major ion ratios and stable water isotope composition to understand the origin of salinity in Niobrara Formation brines from the Denver-Julesburg Basin. These findings are discussed with perspective toward potential treatment and reuse of Niobrara produced water prior to disposal.

Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming

From exploration to production: Understanding the development dynamics of lithium mining projects

Recently, there has been considerable recent controversy whether current and new lithium mines will be able to supply the rapidly growing needs of the electromobility transition. Mineral exploration projects are typically active for many years, and only some become operational mines. From exploration to production, the projects go through several stages of characterisation and evaluation. At each stage, decisions are made by companies and stakeholders to advance, continue or stop the project. This is a complex process, and even projects with very similar geological and technical characteristics may take very different trajectories, depending on external factors such as global market conditions and local regulatory environments. The present study investigates the dynamics of this process for lithium exploration projects. A global database of 397 lithium projects was compiled, covering their progression through major development stages between 2004 and 2022. Ordinal logistic regression was used for the statistical analysis of this data. Different explanatory variables were tested, including economic, geological, technical, and geographic factors, to identify the best predictors for project progress at each development stage. The results suggest an essential role for lithium carbonate prices, and a variable role for other factors at each stage. Critically, the already elapsed lead time and project economics, which are traditionally considered important for the prediction of the start-up of individual mines, do not appear to be relevant in all cases. The results provide important insights into the dynamics of lithium supply and may eventually allow more realistic forecasts to be made for future lithium market dynamics.

Resources Policy

A global assessment of SAOCOM-1 L-band stripmap data for InSAR characterization of volcanic, tectonic, cryospheric, and anthropogenic deformation

SAOCOM-1 is an L-band (23.5 cm) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) constellation made up of two satellites launched in 2018 and 2020 by Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE, Argentina). In this contribution, we present a global summary of interferometric SAR (InSAR) observations of ground deformation with SAOCOM-1 stripmap data for tracking volcanic, tectonic, glacier, and anthropogenic deformation. These examples include: 1) episodes of unrest at volcanoes in the Aleutian Islands, Southern Andes, and Italy, with line-of-sight (LOS) deformation from 4 cm/yr in InSAR time series to ~70 cm in interferograms; 2) dike intrusions in Hawai’i; 3) earthquakes in the Andean fold and thrust belt and the East Anatolian fault; 4) ice flow of the Southern Patagonia icefield; and 5) subsidence due to lithium brine extraction in the Salar de Atacama basin (northern Chile). Comparisons between SAOCOM-1, ALOS-2 SM3, Sentinel-1, and TerraSAR-X/ TanDEM-X/PAZ (TSX/TDX/PAZ) mean velocities from InSAR time series show a 1:1 ± 3% correlation in the LOS velocity, which highlights the high accuracy of SAOCOM-1 data. The minimum deformation that we measured in individual interferograms is 4 ± 0.6 cm. One limitation of SAOCOM-1 is the lack of a global acquisition program, which reduces its global and broader applications. Considering the repeat periods, background observation program, and lack of a controlled orbital tube, the best suited targets for SAOCOM-1 InSAR are two. First, volcanoes that deform with secular rates located in vegetated regions in mid- and high-latitudes, and/or that undergo transient episodes of fast deformation in which C-band coherence is lost quickly. Second, glaciers where coherence can be sustained during the repeat period of eight days.

IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing

Ultralong, supershear rupture of the 2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay earthquake reveals unaccounted risk

The 28 March 2025 moment magnitude ( M w ) 7.7 earthquake in Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), ruptured 475 kilometers of the Sagaing Fault, which was more than twice the length predicted by magnitude scaling relationships. Kinematic slip models and observation of a Rayleigh Mach wave that passed through parts of Thailand confirmed that rupture occurred at supershear velocities of greater than 5 kilometers per second. The anomalous length exposed a vast population to violent near-fault shaking. The Mandalay earthquake is a modern analog for the M w 7.9 1906 San Francisco earthquake, another atypically long and fast rupture. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses use scaling relations that do not account for such long ruptures at moderate magnitudes. This limitation, in conjunction with a likely increased population and infrastructure exposure for atypically long ruptures, contributes to a potential mischaracterization of seismic risk.

Mandalay

Trace elements in some rocks and slag from the Yemen Arab Republic and their bearing on the iron ore near Sa'dah

Thirty-seven samples of rocks, saprolite, laterite, gossan, and slag were collected in the Yemen Arab Republic during June-July 1975 when field work was conducted to refine an interpretation of the regional geology made from LANDSAT-1 images by M. J. Grolier. These samples we reanalyzed in the laboratories of the U. S. Geological Survey, and the results were interpreted for use in programs of economic development as a guide for the evaluation of mineral resources in the Yemen Arab Republic. The work was undertaken as part of the program of the U. S. Agency for International Development with the cooperation of the Mineral and Petroleum Authority, Ministry of Economy, Yemen Arab Republic.

Open-File Report

Analysis of aquifer framework and properties, Alvahs Lane well field, Cutchogue, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Suffolk County Water Authority, evaluated the aquifer transmissivity and storage properties at the Alvahs Lane well field north of the village of Cutchogue, New York. This analysis of aquifer properties provides the Suffolk County Water Authority with hydrogeologic information needed to develop water supplies to meet the increasing water demands of the residents of Suffolk County, New York. An aquifer test was conducted at the Alvahs Lane well field from October 18 through October 21, 2022, when a production well was pumped at 550 gallons per minute for about 24 hours, and groundwater-level drawdown and recovery were measured in two monitoring wells. The three wells are screened in a glaciofluvial aquifer under unconfined (water table) conditions. Drawdown and recovery data were analyzed with an analytical solution for partial penetration and delayed yield in an unconfined aquifer to provide estimates of the glaciofluvial aquifer properties. Inclusion of lateral aquifer boundaries was not necessary for the analysis to result in satisfactory matches with the observed water-level responses. Aquifer transmissivity was estimated at 32,000 feet squared per day. Assuming a saturated aquifer thickness of 120 feet, this result is equivalent to a horizontal hydraulic conductivity value of 270 feet per day. Specific yield was estimated at 0.15 (dimensionless). The estimated properties are consistent with those of a highly transmissive unconfined aquifer.

New York

The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards

Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR, 47% of current subaerial barrier island area would be flooded daily, and the 1-year return period storm would flood 74%. For 20-year return period storms, over 85% is projected to be flooded for any SLR. The modelled groundwater table is already shallow (< 2 m deep), and while projected to shoal to the land surface with SLR, marine flooding is projected to overtake areas with emergent groundwater. Projected shoreline retreat reaches an average of 178 m with 1 m of SLR and no interventions, which is over 60% of the current island width at narrower locations. Compounding these hazards is subsidence, with one-third of the study area currently lowering at > 2 mm/yr. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of managing natural barrier systems such as those managed by federal park systems tasked with maintaining natural ecosystems and protecting cultural resources.

North Carolina

Rapid characterization of the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka, Russia earthquake

The 29 July 2025 M w 8.8 Kamchatka, Russia, earthquake was the sixth largest instrumentally recorded earthquake. This event was seismically well observed at regional and teleseismic distances, but publicly available near‐source data were sparse at the time of the event, presenting unique challenges for rapid source and impact characterization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center provides global real‐time monitoring for earthquakes, including rapid response information products that estimate source characteristics, shaking, and the resulting impacts. We describe the USGS rapid response earthquake information products following the Kamchatka event and discuss their implications for ongoing hazards in the region. We describe potential improvements to our response workflows motivated by this event, including more rapid constraints on source geometries and the automated selection of fault geometries for finite‐fault inversions. The rapid response products together support the interpretation of a unilateral southwestward rupture with significant slip on the southwestern end of the rupture extent. The M w 8.8–9.0 event in 1952, which ruptured a comparable extent of the Kuril–Kamchatka subduction interface, has many similarities to the 2025 rupture. This illustrates that slip deficits may remain following great earthquakes and highlights the usefulness of comparative studies between historic and modern events.

Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone

Using geologic mapping to understand temporal and spatial relations of closely clustered to concurrent latest Holocene surface ruptures on two intersecting faults, south-central Mojave Desert, California

The Pinto Mountain Fault Zone (PMFZ) marks a major structural boundary between east-oriented sinistral faults of the eastern Transverse Ranges (to the south) and northwest-oriented dextral faults of the south-central Mojave Desert (to the north). These structural fault systems comprise sinistral and dextral deformational domains of the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ) that intersect one another in the Copper Mountain and Twentynine Palms areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting detailed geologic mapping and geochronologic investigations designed to clarify geometric, kinematic, and temporal relations among the two domains, that are focused on the central portion of the left-lateral PMFZ near its intersection with the right-lateral Copper Mountain Fault (CMF) and Mesquite Lake Fault Zone (MLFZ).

California