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At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Basin thickness variations at the Junction of the Eastern California Shear Zone and the San Bernardino Mountains, California: How thick could the Pliocene sections be?

We estimate the thickness of Neogene basin fill along the junction of the Eastern California Shear Zone and the North Frontal thrust system of the San Bernardino Mountains using gravity data with geologic and well log constraints. The geometry of the basin fill is of interest for groundwater assessment and location of potential faults, as well as providing an upper bound on the thickness of any potential, buried Pliocene sediments. Nearly one thousand new gravity measurements were collected along the North Frontal thrust system from Hesperia to Johnson Valley. Three-dimensional inverse modeling of the new and existing gravity data shows that Neogene deposits are segmented into basins along the range front of the San Bernardino Mountains. The Helendale fault, a dextral fault in the Eastern California Shear Zone, separates shallower basement (approximately 300 m depth) beneath Lucerne Valley east of the fault from deeper basement (approximately 550 m or more) west of the fault. The thickest part of the basin fill is generally located near the San Bernardino Mountains and the basin shallows northward. The amount of throw on the North Frontal thrust appears to decrease eastward, as the gravity gradient associated with the fault diminishes in amplitude. The thickness of basin fill away from the North Frontal system and east of the Helendale fault is less than 100 to 200 m, except for local pockets generally developed along strike-slip faults of the Eastern California Shear Zone and local east-west oriented depressions associated with folding of the basin fill.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Paleozoic and mesozoic GIS data from the Geologic Atlas of the Rocky Mountain Region: Volume 1

The Rocky Mountain Association of Geologists (RMAG) is, once again, publishing portions of the 1972 Geologic Atlas of the Rocky Mountain Region (Mallory, ed., 1972) as a geospatial map and data package. Georeferenced tiff (Geo TIFF) images of map figures from this atlas has served as the basis for these data products. Shapefiles and file geodatabase features have been generated and cartographically represented for select pages from the following chapters: • Phanerozoic Rocks (page 56) • Cambrian System (page 63) • Ordovician System (pages 78 and 79) • Silurian System (pages 87 - 89) • Devonian System (pages 93, 94, and 96 - 98) • Mississippian System (pages 102 and 103) • Pennsylvanian System (pages 114 and 115) • Permian System (pages 146 and 149 - 154) • Triassic System (pages 168 and 169) • Jurassic System (pages 179 and 180) • Cretaceous System (pages 197 - 201, 207 - 210, 215, - 218, 221, 222, 224, 225, and 227). The primary purpose of this publication is to provide regional-scale, as well as local-scale, geospatial data of the Rocky Mountain Region for use in geoscience studies. An important aspect of this interactive map product is that it does not require extensive GIS experience or highly specialized software.

Book↗

USGS2019

Establishing an Agassiz’s Desert Tortoise monitoring program within the Coachella Valley multiple species habitat conservation plan area: Final report to the Coachella Valley conservation commission on work performed near the Orocopia Mountains

In support of the goals of the Coachella Valley Multiple Species Habitat Conservation Plan and Natural Community Conservation Plan (CVMSHCP/NCCP), a population of Agassiz’s desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) was marked and studied to establish a desert tortoise monitoring program near the Orocopia Mountains beginning in early 2017 and ending in the summer of 2018, following the epic drought of 2012‒2016. This effort compliments a similar effort in the nearby mouth of Cottonwood Canyon in 2015‒2016. Surveys were performed to locate tortoises, tortoise burrows, and tortoise remains at the eastern end of the CVMSHCP area north of the Orocopia Mountains and south of Interstate 10 in Riverside County, California. Although the area is considered Critical Habitat for the recovery of tortoise populations, it was heavily impacted by military training activities in the early 1940s and continues to be impacted by off-highway vehicle use. Data were collected from all live and dead tortoise specimens encountered. Only 22 live tortoises were found during transects covering approximately 21 km 2 of habitat surveyed. The sex ratio of live adult tortoises was strongly biased toward males and the sex ratio of recently (4‒5 years) dead carcasses during the long drought was strongly biased toward females. High female mortality may have resulted from the interaction of drought (including increased predation) and the reproductive strategy of tortoises. We located only one new live tortoise in the drought year of 2018 when there was no germination of winter annual food plants. A subsample of nine tortoises was outfitted with radio transmitters, and females (n = 4) were X-radiographed at approximately 10-day intervals from April–July. Mean clutch size was about 4 eggs as is typical for tortoises in this region. Additional tortoises were located opportunistically in and around the Santa Rosa Mountains (located in the southern end of the CVMSHCP area), and these tortoises were also marked for future identification. Blood samples were taken from adult tortoises and scute clips were taken from a subset of juveniles for ongoing studies to determine genetic diversity and relationships of desert tortoises within the CVMSHCP/NCCP area and beyond. The low tortoise density and high adult female mortality observed by us and others in the area may compromise the long-term viability of the population, especially given published predictions of the negative effects of future droughts on tortoises in the region.

California↗

USGS1994

Strontium isotope geochemistry of soil and playa deposits near Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The isotopic composition of strontium contained in the carbonate fractions of soils provides an excellent tracer which can be used to test models for their origin. This paper reports data on surface coatings and cements, eolian sediments, playas and alluvial fan soils which help to constrain a model for formation of the extensive calcretes and fault infillings in the Yucca Mountain region. The playas contain carbonate with a wide range of strontium compositions; further work will be required to fully understand their possible contributions to the pedogenic carbonate system. Soils from an alluvial fan to the west of Yucca Mountain show that only small amounts of strontium are derived from a fan draining a carbonate terrane have strontium component. Although much evidence points to an eolian source for at least some of the strontium in the pedogenic carbonates near Yucca Mountain, an additional component or past variation of strontium composition in the eolian source is required to model the pedogenic carbonate system

Nevada↗

USGS2020

Extension directions in the Colorado River extensional corridor compared to fragmentation of a structurally disrupted caldera in the Sacramento Mountains, southeastern California

The northwest trend of the southern Colorado River extensional corridor in the southwestern USA veers northward between 34° and 35° north latitude. The tilt axes of early Miocene west-tilted volcanic strata in the west-central Sacramento Mountains mirror this bend. Steeply dipping early Miocene strata and volcanics north and south of the bend indicate the strong respectively westward to southwestward tilt of detached fault blocks and probably of the detachment fault on which they are superposed. These fault panels include fragments of the 18.8 Ma Peach Spring Tuff’s (PST) source caldera. The PST occurs in two major detached fault domains in the Sacramento Mountains where outflow facies ignimbrite grades southward into intracaldera facies. The facies transitions, interpreted as part of the PST’s source caldera’s northeastern margin, lie on a northeast extensional azimuth that would restore them to continuity with the Silver Creek caldera in the Black Mountains, AZ, 50 km to the northeast. This extensional vector agrees with some but not other indicators of extension azimuth such as fault striae, ductile lineations, tilt axes, and elongated plutons. The new results imply spatial variability of extension direction and raise questions about the how this variability may relate to the bend in the Colorado River extensional corridor.

Arizona, California↗

USGS1974

Stratigraphic relations of the Bolsa Quartzite, Vekol Mountains, Pinal County, Arizona

A quartzite unit occurring between the rocks of the Precambrian Apache Group and those of the Cambrian Abrigo Formation in the Vekol Mountains, Final County, Ariz., has been called both Troy Quartzite (Precambrian) and Bolsa(?) Quartzite (Cambrian). Regional and local geologic relationships indicate that this intervening unit is definitely the Bolsa Quartzite. The Bolsa ranges in thickness from at least 200 ft at several localities in the Vekol Mountains to 0 ft over a positive area underlain by Precambrian diabase which has intruded the Apache Group. Previous observations that the diabase intruded the quartzite unit (thereby making this quartzite unit the Troy Quartzite) have been reinterpreted; all nonfaulted exposures of the basal contact of the quartzite unit show sedimentary relationships. No evidence was found to suggest that the Troy Quartzite was ever deposited in the Vekol Mountains.

Arizona↗

USGS1974

Preliminary study of rock alteration in the Catheart Mountain molybdenum-copper deposit, Maine

Studies of drill cores from the Catheart Mountain molybdenum-copper deposit indicate that the deposit is of the porphyry type. Hydrothermal alteration and sulfide mineralization are probably distributed in complex but systematic alteration zones. Most or all mineralization at Catheart Mountain is in a medium-fine-grained quartz monzonite enclosed within a larger mass of Attean Quartz Monzonite; no ore and little hydrothermal alteration have been seen in the Attean. Much of the ore and hydrothermal alteration seem to be and presumably are spatially related to irregular intrusive masses of porphyry. Only certain porphyry intrusives are mineral bearing, however, and many have no associated ore and alteration. Studies of hydrothermal alterations in surface exposures supplemented by rock analyses of bulk samples indicate that alteration features and sulfide zone characteristics of an area northwest of the mountain crest are, when measured against accepted porphyry models, very favorable for the occurrence of ore. Even though this favorable area has already been tested by some drilling, the presence together here of the strong center of potassic enrichment, the well-developed pyrite zone, and the strong and extensive phyllic alteration suggest that some further evaluation may be warranted.

Maine↗

USGS1978

Igneous and metamorphic petrology of the southwestern Dana Mountains, Lassiter Coast, Antarctic Peninsula

The southwestern Dana Mountains of the southern Antarctic Peninsula are underlain by the western part of a composite concentrically zoned Upper Cretaceous batholith consisting largely of granodiorite. The granodiorite (felsic phase) was intrusive into older heterogeneous gabbro-diorite (mafic phase) which makes up the margin of the batholith. Flat-lying pegmatite bodies and abundant inclusions, roof pendants, and septa of metasedimentary rocks and gabbrodiorite suggest that the granodiorite lies near the roof of the batholith. Petrography, chemistry, field relations, and radiometric age dates indicate that the batholith is part of the Andean intrusive suite, a suite of calc-alkaline plutonic rocks that crops out extensively throughout the Antarctic Peninsula and Chilean and Patagonian Andes. Textural features, mineralogy, and chemical data indicate that both phases of the batholith in the southwestern Dana Mountains have been contaminated by assimilation of the Latady Formation, an Upper Jurassic sequence of shale, siltstone, and sandstone that underlies large parts of the southern Antarctic Peninsula. Composition of the granodiorite also has been modified by assimilation of lesser amounts of the gabbro-diorite phase. Such contaminated plutonic rocks occur in several places in the northern Antarctic Peninsula; the batholith in the southwestern Dana Mountains represents the southernmost exposures of contaminated igneous rocks known from the Antarctic Peninsula. Hornblende andesite dikes cut both the mafic and felsic phases of the batholith. Chemical data imply that the dikes represent small amounts of mafic material remobilized by intrusion of the granodiorite. During the austral summers of 1969

Antarctic Peninsula, Dana Mountains, Lassiter Coas↗

USGS2023

A review of geology and mining in the Marble Mountains, southeastern California

Mining in the Marble Mountains of southeastern California was active in the earliest 1900s and gradually declined to very few active mines by 1959. Most mining consisted of hard-rock prospects and mines, with a few soft-rock prospects and one mine. The Marble Mountains are a 10 km by 30 km, gently NE-dipping dipping structural block composed of Proterozoic plutonic and metamorphic rocks, Paleozoic sedimentary rocks, and Jurassic granitoids exposed along the western anti-dip slopes, and Miocene volcanic and sedimentary rocks exposed along the crest of the range and eastern dip slopes. Mineralization occurred in metamorphic aureoles of intrusions, along dikes, as contact metasomatic replacement bodies in carbonate rocks, or adjacent to or along thrust faults. Mineralization locally formed gold, copper, malachite, azurite, bornite, chalcopyrite, magnetite, specularite, limonite, quartz, epidote, actinolite, and garnet. Hard-rock prospects and mines are clustered into five locations. The mines are small open pits, a few consist of a shaft or two with a few adits, most are just a single shaft or adit. There are a few small open-pit marble mines, and one is an open pit fossil mine. Eight prospects were developed in the Miocene tuffaceous deposits; three in the northwest and five prospects, and a single adit, in the south. Most of the Marble Mountains are now in the Trilobite Wilderness or adjacent Areas of Critical Environmental Concern, and the area of the Golden Cycle district (Castle Mine area) and prospect areas in the southern part of the range are in the Mojave Trails National Monument. The Iron Hat mine, several nearby areas, and the Trilobite mine area are privately owned. No rock or mineral mines are currently active, but the Trilobite mine in the south end of the range is still open to the public.

California↗

USGS1980

The Rocky Mountain population of the western Canada goose: Its distribution, habitats, and management

The western Canada goose ( Branta canadensis moffitti ) was divided into a Rocky Mountain population (RMP) and a Pacific population (PP) on the basis of band recovery patterns examined in this study and recovery data from other investigators. Habitat information obtained from nine cooperating wildlife agencies within the RMP's range provided a base line for evaluating future changes in nesting, molting, and wintering areas. The habitat inventory indicated that none of the seasonal habitats were currently limiting the size of the RMP. The RMP's range is divided into 15 reference areas and these are briefly described. Past studies of Canada geese in the Intermountain Region are reviewed. Topics covered in the discussion of breeding biology are nesting chronology, spring population composition, breeding age, clutch size, nesting success. artificial nesting structures, and gosling survival. Much of the mortality of Canada geese occurs before the birds are fledged. Man-made nesting structures reduce losses during incubation. but research is needed on the relations between brooding sites and gosling survival. Some western Canada geese, mainly prebreeders and unsuccessful nesters, make molt migrations to and from molting areas during and after the brood-rearing season. More than half of these molt-migrants are yearlings too young to nest; there are indications that even some successful nesters leave nesting areas to molt before the fledging of their offspring. Geese 2 years old or older may serve as guides to traditional molting areas for the first-time migrants (i.e., yearlings). Lack of disturbance appears to influence selection of specific molting areas within the nesting range of moffitti , whereas movements of molters out of the Intermountain Region may be related to the evolution of this subspecies. Apparently. molters of both the PP and RMP that leave the Region go to the Northwest Territories of Canada. Although the taxonomic status of moffitti as related to the giant Canada goose ( B. c. maxima ) is unclear. these two subspecies are closely related. as evidenced by similar molt migrations to subarctic Canada. similar blood serum proteins. and only dinal differences in body size ,!!nd color. Mean annual survival rates for birds banded on nesting areas averaged 53 ± 2% ( X̿ ± SE) for immatures and 64 ± 1 % for adults. Mean annual survival rates of adults captured on molting areas averaged 70 ± 1 %. Sport hunting accounts for more than 86% of the mortality of fledged Rocky Mountain geese. and hunting may limit the population's growth. Because the number of waterfowl hunters in the Rocky Mountain West is increasing, the continued expansion or future maintenance of the RMP may require more restrictive hunting regulations. Other management recommendations include the refinement and standardization of spring and winter aerial surveys, and more accurate age and sex determinations when geese are banded and color-marked.

Alberta, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Mon↗

USGS2000

Management of land use conflicts in the United States Rocky Mountains

People have long been attracted to the beauty and grandeur of the Rocky Mountains. Until very recently, however, the Rocky Mountain region was sparsely populated and its use mostly extractive. Commodities removed in massive quantities included first beaver, then precious metals, timber, energy, and finally water. There has been a fundamental change in migration patterns since the 1980s. Populations are expanding not only in urban areas; many rural areas are also growing faster. In an affluent and mobile society, Americans are moving to the West for aesthetic reasons, often based on perceptions that have little to do with regional roots, family ties, or economic opportunities. Wallace Stegner described the West into the 1980s as a colony for the rest of the nation. “It seems to be almost like a continuous repetitive act of God that the western resources should be mined …, that populations should rush in and have to rush out again, or trickle out again…. Get in, get rich, get out….Every boom and bust leaves the West physically a little poorer, a little worse damaged” ( Stegner 1996 ). In an article about actor and director Robert Redford, writer Richard Raynor talks about unexpected side effects Redford's movies have had on American behavior. “A River Runs Through It" dangerously swelled the banks of American rivers with novice fishermen. It seems likely that Redford's loving rendition of ranch life in The Horse Whisperer … will have a similar effect on western Montana, filling it with even more people in a nostalgic search for American rapture and simplicity” (1998).

Rocky Mountains↗

USGS2010

Assessment and monitoring of recreation impacts and resource conditions on mountain summits: Examples from the Northern Forest, USA

Mountain summits present a unique challenge to manage sustainably: they are ecologically important and, in many circumstances, under high demand for recreation and tourism activities. This article presents recent advances in the assessment of resource conditions and visitor disturbance in mountain summit environments, by drawing on examples from a multiyear, interdisciplinary study of summits in the northeastern United States. Primary impact issues as a consequence of visitor use, such as informal trail formation, vegetation disturbance, and soil loss, were addressed via the adaption of protocols from recreation ecology studies to summit environments. In addition, new methodologies were developed that provide measurement sensitivity to change previously unavailable through standard recreation monitoring protocols. Although currently limited in application to the northeastern US summit environments, the methods presented show promise for widespread application wherever summits are in demand for visitor activities.

Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, New York, Massachus↗

USGS1999

Component flow processes at four streams in the Catskill Mountains, New York, analysed using episodic concentration/discharge relationship

Plots of solute concentration against discharge have been used to relate stream hydrochemical variations to processes of flow generation, using data collected at four streams in the Catskill Mountains, New York, during the Episodic Response Project of the US Environmental Protection Agency. Results suggest that a two-component system of shallow and deep saturated subsurface flow, in which the two components respond simultaneously during hydrologic events, may be applicable to the study basins. Using a large natural sea-salt sodium input as a tracer for precipitation, it is argued that an additional distinction can be made between pre-event and event water travelling along the shallow subsurface flow path. Pre-event water is thought to be displaced by infiltrating event water, which becomes dominant on the falling limb of the hydrograph. Where, as appears to be the case for sulfate, a solute equilibrates rapidly within the soil, the pre-event-event water distinction is unimportant. However, for some solutes there are clear and consistent compositional differences between water from the two sources, evident as a hysteresis loop in concentration-discharge plots. Nitrate and acidity, in particular, appear to be elevated in event water following percolation through the organic horizon. Consequently, the most acidic, high nitrate conditions during an episode generally occur after peak discharge. A simple conceptual model of episode runoff generation is presented on the basis of these results.Plots of solute concentration against discharge have been used to relate stream hydrochemical variations to processes of flow generation, using data collected at four streams in the Catskill Mountains, New York, during the Episodic Response Project of the US Environmental Protection Agency. Results suggest that a two-component system of shallow and deep saturated subsurface flow, in which the two components respond simultaneously during hydrologic events, may be applicable to the study basins. Using a large natural sea-salt sodium input as a tracer for precipitation, it is argued that an additional distinction can be made between pre-event and event water travelling along the shallow subsurface flow path. Pre-event water is thought to be displaced by infiltrating event water, which becomes dominant on the falling limb of the hydrograph. Where, as appears to be the case for sulfate, a solute equilibrates rapidly within the soil, the pre-event - event water distinction is unimportant. However, for some solutes there are clear and consistent compositional differences between water from the two sources, evident as a hysteresis loop in concentration-discharge plots. Nitrate and acidity, in particular, appear to be elevated in event water following percolation through the organic horizon. Consequently, the most acidic, high nitrate conditions during an episode generally occur after peak discharge. A simple conceptual model of episode runoff generation is presented on the basis of these results.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS1999

Estimation of geomorphically significant flows in alpine streams of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado (USA)

Streamflows recorded at 24 gauging stations in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado were analyzed to derive regional regression equations for estimating the natural flow duration and flood frequency in reaches where the natural flows are unknown or have been altered by diversion or regulation. The principal objective of this analysis is to determine whether the relatively high, infrequent, but geomorphically and ecologically important flows in the Rocky Mountains can be accurately estimated by regional flow duration equations. The region considered in this study is an area of relatively abundant runoff, and, consequently, intense water resources development. The specific streams analyzed here, however, are unaltered and remain nearly pristine. Regional flow duration equations are derived for two situations. When the mean annual discharge is known, flows ≧10% of the time can be estimated with an uncertainty of ±9% for the 10% exceedance flow, to ±11% for the 1.0% exceedance flow. When the mean annual discharge is unknown, the relatively high, infrequent flow can be estimated using the mean basin precipitation rate (in m 3 /s), and basin relief with an uncertainty of ±23% for the 10% exceedance flow to ±21% for the 1.0% exeedance flow. The uncertainty in estimated discharges using the equations derived in this analysis is substantially smaller than has been previously reported, especially for the geomorphically significant flows which are relatively large and infrequent. The improvement is due primarily to the quality of streamflow records analyzed and a well-defined hydrologic region.

Colorado↗

USGS2017

High sensitivity of gross primary production in the Rocky Mountains to summer rain

In the catchments of the Rocky Mountains, peak snowpack is declining in response to warmer spring temperatures. To understand how this will influence terrestrial gross primary production (GPP), we compared precipitation data across the intermountain west with satellite retrievals of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), a proxy for GPP. Annual precipitation patterns explained most of the spatial and temporal variability of SIF, but the slope of the response was dependent on site to site differences in the proportion of snowpack to summer rain. We separated the response of SIF to different seasonal precipitation amounts and found that SIF was approximately twice as sensitive to variations in summer rain than snowpack. The response of peak GPP to a secular decline in snowpack will likely be subtle, whereas a change in summer rain amount will have precipitous effects on GPP. The study suggests that the rain use efficiency of Rocky Mountain ecosystems is strongly dependent on precipitation form and timing.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2018

Snow sublimation in mountain environments and its sensitivity to forest disturbance and climate warming

Snow sublimation is an important component of the snow mass balance, but the spatial and temporal variability of this process is not well understood in mountain environments. This study combines a process‐based snow model (SnowModel) with eddy covariance (EC) measurements to investigate (1) the spatio‐temporal variability of simulated snow sublimation with respect to station observations, (2) the contribution of snow sublimation to the ablation of the snowpack, and (3) the sensitivity and response of snow sublimation to bark beetle‐induced forest mortality and climate warming across the north‐central Colorado Rocky Mountains. EC‐based observations of snow sublimation compared well with simulated snow sublimation at stations dominated by surface and canopy sublimation, but blowing snow sublimation in alpine areas was not well captured by the EC instrumentation. Water balance calculations provided an important validation of simulated sublimation at the watershed scale. Simulated snow sublimation across the study area was equivalent to 28% of winter precipitation on average, and the highest relative snow sublimation fluxes occurred during the lowest snow years. Snow sublimation from forested areas accounted for the majority of sublimation fluxes, highlighting the importance of canopy and sub‐canopy surface sublimation in this region. Simulations incorporating the effects of tree mortality due to bark‐beetle disturbance resulted in a 4% reduction in snow sublimation from forested areas. Snow sublimation rates corresponding to climate warming simulations remained unchanged or slightly increased, but total sublimation losses decreased by up to 6% because of a reduction in snow covered area and duration.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2021

Population structure, intergroup interaction, and human contact govern infectious disease impacts in mountain gorilla populations

Infectious zoonotic diseases are a threat to wildlife conservation and global health. They are especially a concern for wild apes, which are vulnerable to many human infectious diseases. As ecotourism, deforestation, and great ape field research increase, the threat of human-sourced infections to wild populations becomes more substantial and could result in devastating population declines. The endangered mountain gorillas ( Gorilla beringei beringei ) of the Virunga Massif in east-central Africa suffer periodic disease outbreaks and are exposed to infections from human-sourced pathogens. It is important to understand the possible risks of disease introduction and spread in this population and how human contact may facilitate disease transmission. Here we present and evaluate an individual-based, stochastic, discrete-time disease transmission model to predict epidemic outcomes and better understand health risks to the Virunga mountain gorilla population. To model disease transmission we have derived estimates for gorilla contact, interaction, and migration rates. The model shows that the social structure of gorilla populations plays a profound role in governing disease impacts with subdivided populations experiencing less than 25% of the outbreak levels of a single homogeneous population. It predicts that gorilla group dispersal and limited group interactions are strong factors in preventing widespread population-level outbreaks of infectious disease after such diseases have been introduced into the population. However, even a moderate amount of human contact increases disease spread and can lead to population-level outbreaks.

Virunga Massif↗

USGS2016

Shrinking windows of opportunity for oak seedling establishment in southern California mountains

Seedling establishment is a critical step that may ultimately govern tree species’ distribution shifts under environmental change. Annual variation in the location of seed rain and microclimates results in transient “windows of opportunity” for tree seedling establishment across the landscape. These establishment windows vary at fine spatiotemporal scales that are not considered in most assessments of climate change impacts on tree species range dynamics and habitat displacement. We integrate field seedling establishment trials conducted in the southern Sierra Nevada and western Tehachapi Mountains of southern California with spatially downscaled grids of modeled water-year climatic water deficit (CWD wy ) and mean August maximum daily temperature ( T max ) to map historical and projected future microclimates suitable for establishment windows of opportunity for Quercus douglasii , a dominant tree species of warm, dry foothill woodlands, and Q. kelloggii , a dominant of cooler, more mesic montane woodlands and forests. Based on quasi-binomial regression models, Q. douglasii seedling establishment is significantly associated with modeled CWD wy and to a lesser degree with modeled T max . Q. kelloggii seedling establishment is most strongly associated with T max and best predicted by a two-factor model including CWD wy and T max . Establishment niche models are applied to explore recruitment window dynamics in the western Tehachapi Mountains, where these species are currently widespread canopy dominants. Establishment windows are projected to decrease by 50–95%, shrinking locally to higher elevations and north-facing slopes by the end of this century depending on the species and climate scenario. These decreases in establishment windows suggest the potential for longer-term regional population declines of the species. While many additional processes regulate seedling establishment and growth, this study highlights the need to account for topoclimatic controls and interannual climatic variation when assessing how seedling establishment and colonization processes could be affected by climate change.

California↗