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USGS2015

Vulnerabilities and opportunities at the nexus of electricity, water and climate

The articles in this special issue examine the critical nexus of electricity, water, and climate, emphasizing connections among resources; the prospect of increasing vulnerabilities of water resources and electricity generation in a changing climate; and the opportunities for research to inform integrated energy and water policy and management measures aimed at reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience. Here, we characterize several major themes emerging from this research and highlight some of the uptake of this work in both scientific and public spheres. Underpinning much of this research is the recognition that water resources are expected to undergo substantial changes based on the global warming that results primarily from fossil energy-based carbon emissions. At the same time, the production of electricity from fossil fuels, nuclear power, and some renewable technologies (biomass, geothermal and concentrating solar power) can be highly water-intensive. Energy choices now and in the near future will have a major impact not just on the global climate, but also on water supplies and the resilience of energy systems that currently depend heavily on them.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2010

A probabilistic assessment methodology for the evaluation of geologic carbon dioxide storage

In 2007, the Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110-140) authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of potential geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy. The first year of that activity was specified for development of a methodology to estimate storage potential that could be applied uniformly to geologic formations across the United States. After its release, the methodology was to receive public comment and external expert review. An initial methodology was developed and published in March 2009 (Burruss and others, 2009), and public comments were received. The report was then sent to a panel of experts for external review. The external review report was received by the USGS in December 2009. This report is in response to those external comments and reviews and describes how the previous assessment methodology (Burruss and others, 2009) was revised. The resource that is assessed is the technically accessible storage resource, which is defined as the mass of CO 2 that can be stored in the pore volume of a storage formation. The methodology that is presented in this report is intended to be used for assessments at scales ranging from regional to subbasinal in which storage assessment units are defined on the basis of common geologic and hydrologic characteristics. The methodology does not apply to site-specific evaluation of storage resources or capacity.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1975

Physical factors determining the fraction of stored energy recoverable from hydrothermal convection systems and conduction-dominated areas

This report contains background analyses for the estimates of Nathenson and Muffler (1975) of geothermal resources in hydrothermal convection systems and conduction-dominated areas. The first section discusses heat and fluid recharge potential of geothermal reservoirs. The second section analyzes the physical factors that determine the fraction of stored energy obtainable at the surface from a geothermal reservoir. Conversion of heat to electricity and the use of geothermal energy for direct-heating applications are discussed in the last two sections. Nathenson, Manuel, and Muffler, L.J.P., 1975, Geothermal resources in hydrothermal convection systems and conduction dominated areas, in White, D.E., and Williams, D.L., eds., Assessment of the Geothermal Resources of the United States--1975: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 726, p. 104-121, available at http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/usgspubs/cir/cir726

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Neonatal antipredator tactics shape female movement patterns in large herbivores

Caring for newborn offspring hampers resource acquisition of mammalian females, curbing their ability to meet the high energy expenditure of early lactation. Newborns are particularly vulnerable, and large herbivores have evolved a continuum of neonatal anti-predator tactics, ranging from immobile hider to highly mobile follower offspring. How these tactics constrain female movements around parturition is unknown, particularly within the current context of increasing habitat fragmentation and earlier plant phenology caused by global warming. Using a analysis across 54 populations of 23 species of large herbivores, we show that mothers adjust their movements to variation in resource productivity and heterogeneity according to their offspring’s neonatal tactic. Mothers with hider offspring are unable to exploit environments where the variability of resources occurs at a broad scale, which might alter resource allocation compared to mothers with follower offspring. Our findings reveal that the overlooked neonatal tactic plays a key role for predicting how species are coping with environmental variation.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗
USGS2009

Development of a probabilistic assessment methodology for evaluation of carbon dioxide storage

This report describes a probabilistic assessment methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for evaluation of the resource potential for storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the subsurface of the United States as authorized by the Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110-140, 2007). The methodology is based on USGS assessment methodologies for oil and gas resources created and refined over the last 30 years. The resource that is evaluated is the volume of pore space in the subsurface in the depth range of 3,000 to 13,000 feet that can be described within a geologically defined storage assessment unit consisting of a storage formation and an enclosing seal formation. Storage assessment units are divided into physical traps (PTs), which in most cases are oil and gas reservoirs, and the surrounding saline formation (SF), which encompasses the remainder of the storage formation. The storage resource is determined separately for these two types of storage. Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to calculate a distribution of the potential storage size for individual PTs and the SF. To estimate the aggregate storage resource of all PTs, a second Monte Carlo simulation step is used to sample the size and number of PTs. The probability of successful storage for individual PTs or the entire SF, defined in this methodology by the likelihood that the amount of CO 2 stored will be greater than a prescribed minimum, is based on an estimate of the probability of containment using present-day geologic knowledge. The report concludes with a brief discussion of needed research data that could be used to refine assessment methodologies for CO 2 sequestration.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment ( i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features ( i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms ( e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods ( e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

Geothermics↗
USGS2000

Bird mortality associated with wind turbines at the Buffalo Ridge wind resource area, Minnesota

Recent technological advances have made wind power a viable source of alternative energy production and the number of windplant facilities has increased in the United States. Construction was completed on a 73 turbine, 25 megawatt windplant on Buffalo Ridge near Lake Benton, Minnesota in Spring 1994. The number of birds killed at existing windplants in California caused concern about the potential impacts of the Buffalo Ridge facility on the avian community. From April 1994 through Dec. 1995 we searched the Buffalo Ridge windplant site for dead birds. Additionally, we evaluated search efficiency, predator scavenging rates and rate of carcass decomposition. During 20 mo of monitoring we found 12 dead birds. Collisions with wind turbines were suspected for 8 of the 12 birds. During observer efficiency trials searchers found 78.8% of carcasses. Scavengers removed 39.5% of carcasses during scavenging trials. All carcasses remained recognizable during 7 d decomposition trials. After correction for biases we estimated that approximately 36 ?? 12 birds (<1 dead bird per turbine) were killed at the Buffalo Ridge windplant in 1 y. Although windplants do not appear to be more detrimental to birds than other man-made structures, proper facility sitting is an important first consideration in order to avoid unnecessary fatalities.

Minnesota↗
USGS2021

Accounting for fine-scale forest structure is necessary to model snowpack mass and energy budgets in montane forests

Accurately modeling the effects of variable forest structure and change on snow distribution and persistence is critical to water resource management. The resolution of many snow models is too coarse to represent heterogeneous canopy structure in forests, and therefore, most models simplify forest effects on snowpack mass and energy budgets. To quantify the loss of snowpack prediction from simplifications of forest canopy-mediated processes, we applied a high-resolution energy balance snowpack model at two forested sites at a fine (1 m 2 ) and coarse (100 m 2 ) spatial resolution. Simulating open and forested areas separately, as is done in many land surface models (LSMs), leads to biases between the coarse and fine-scale simulations because there is no representation of areas that are near (e.g., <15 m from) trees but with no overhead canopy, which are common in forests of low to medium tree density. Consistent with previous LSM intercomparisons, the coarser simulations predict greater under-canopy radiation (by 30%–80% at our sites), faster snow ablation (by almost 2×), and earlier snow disappearance (by 1–22 days). Many of these biases are reduced dramatically or eliminated when canopy edge environments are considered in the coarser simulations. Furthermore, remaining disagreement between the 100-m and 1-m models can be partially explained by using a combination of tree height, canopy cover, and canopy edginess (which together can explain 46%–96% of remaining model biases). The lack of information about canopy edges and other fine-scale forest structure characteristics in many current LSMs may limit their reliability for simulating forest disturbance.

California, New Mexico↗
USGS1981

Summary appraisal of water resources in the Redmond quadrangle, Sanpete and Sevier Counties, Utah

This map was compiled in conjunction with an energy-related geologic-mapping project on the Redmond Quadrangle (Witkind, 1980) in order to show the general availability and chemical quality of water in the area. The map is based chiefly on data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey under a continuing cooperative program with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and on cursory field observations by the writer. Most of the existing fata are in reports of Carpenter and Young (1963), Hahl and Cabell (1965), Young and Carpenter (1965) and Hahl and Mundorff (1968). Additional information about water and related land resources in the map area may be found in a report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (1969). The map is intended for general planning purposes only and needs to be used with discretion. Detailed site-specific information about the availability and quality of water or about water-related problems can be gained only by special on-site investigations.

Utah↗
USGS1990

Water-resources programs and hydrologic-information needs, Marion County, Indiana, 1987

Water resources are abundant in Marion County, Indiana, and have been developed for public and industrial supply, energy generation, irrigation, and recreation. The largest water withdrawals are from surface water, and the two largest water uses are public supply and cooling water for electrical-generating plants. Water-resources programs in the county are carried out by Federal, State and local agencies to address issues of surface and groundwater availability and quality. The programs of each agency are related to the functions and goals of the agency. Although each agency has specific information needs to fulfill its functions, sometimes these needs overlap, and there are times when the same hydrologic information benefits all. Overlapping information needs and activities create opportunities for interagency coordination and cooperation. Such cooperation could lead to a savings of dollars spent on water-resources programs and could assure an improved understanding of the water resources of the county. Representatives from four agencies-- the Indiana Department of Environmental Management, the Indiana Department of Natural Resources, the Indianapolis Department of Public Works, and the U.S. Geological Survey--met four times in 1987 to describe their own water-resources programs, to identify hydrologic-information needs, and to contact other agencies with related programs. This report presents the interagency findings and is intended to further communication among water resource agencies by identifying current programs and common needs for hydrologic information. Hydrologic information needs identified by the agency representatives include more precise methods for determining the volume of water withdrawals and for determining the volume of industrial and municipal discharges to surface water. Maps of flood-prone areas need to be updated as more of the county is developed. Improved aquifer maps of the inter-till aquifers are needed, and additional observation wells are needed in the inter-till and bedrock aquifers. Finally, immediate access to instantaneous precipitation data is needed to assess flooding potential. (USGS)

Indiana↗
USGS2013

National assessment of geologic carbon dioxide storage resources: Summary

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed an evaluation of the technically accessible storage resource ( TA SR ) for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) for 36 sedimentary basins in the onshore areas and State waters of the United States. The TA SR is an estimate of the geologic storage resource that may be available for CO 2 injection and storage and is based on current geologic and hydrologic knowledge of the subsurface and current engineering practices. By using a geology-based probabilistic assessment methodology, the USGS assessment team members obtained a mean estimate of approximately 3,000 metric gigatons (Gt) of subsurface CO 2 storage capacity that is technically accessible below onshore areas and State waters; this amount is more than 500 times the 2011 annual U.S. energy-related CO 2 emissions of 5.5 Gt (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2012, http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/). In 2007, the Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110–140) directed the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a national assessment of geologic storage resources for CO 2 in consultation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Department of Energy, and State geological surveys. The USGS developed a methodology to estimate storage resource potential in geologic formations in the United States (Burruss and others, 2009, USGS Open-File Report (OFR) 2009–1035; Brennan and others, 2010, USGS OFR 2010–1127; Blondes, Brennan, and others, 2013, USGS OFR 2013–1055). In 2012, the USGS completed the assessment, and the results are summarized in this Fact Sheet and are provided in more detail in companion reports (U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources Assessment Team, 2013a,b; see related reports at right). The goal of this project was to conduct an initial assessment of storage capacity on a regional basis, and results are not intended for use in the evaluation of specific sites for potential CO 2 storage. The national assessment was a geology-based examination of all sedimentary basins in the onshore and State waters area of the United States that contain storage assessment units (SAUs) that could be defined according to geologic and hydrologic characteristics. Although geologic storage of CO 2 may be possible in some areas not assessed by the USGS, the SAUs identified in this assessment represent those areas within sedimentary basins that met the assessment criteria. A geologic description of each SAU was prepared; descriptions for SAUs in several basins are in Warwick and Corum (2012, USGS OFR 2012–1024).

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2024

Going with the floe: Sea-ice movement affects distance and destination during Adélie penguin winter movements

Seasonal migration, driven by shifts in annual climate cycles and resources, is a key part of the life history and ecology of species across taxonomic groups. By influencing the amount of energy needed to move, external forces such as wind and ocean currents are often key drivers of migratory pathways exposing individuals to varying resources, environmental conditions, and competition pressures impacting individual fitness and population dynamics. Although wildlife movements in connection with wind and ocean currents are relatively well understood, movements within sea-ice fields have been much less studied, despite sea ice being an integral part of polar ecology. Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica, currently exist at the southernmost edge of their range and undergo the longest (~12,000 km) winter migration known for the species. Within and north of the Ross Sea, the Ross Gyre drives ocean circulation and the large-scale movement of sea ice. We used remotely sensed sea-ice movement data together with geolocation-based penguin movement data to test the hypothesis that penguins use gyre-driven sea-ice movement to aid their migration. We found that penguins traveled greater distances when their movement vectors were aligned with those of sea ice (i.e., ice support) and the amount of ice support received depended on which route a penguin took. We also found that birds that took an eastern route traveled significantly further north in two of the 3 years we examined, coinciding with higher velocities of sea ice in those years. We compare our findings to patterns observed in migrating species that utilize air or water currents for their travel and with other studies showing the importance of ocean/sea-ice circulation patterns to wildlife movement and life history patterns within the Ross Sea. Changes in sea ice may have consequences not only for energy expenditure but, by altering migration and movement pathways, to the ecological interactions that exist in this region.

Ecology↗
USGS2008

Geologic assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable coalbed-gas resources in Cretaceous and Tertiary rocks, North Slope, and adjacent state waters, Alaska

The purpose of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Oil and Gas Assessment is to develop geology-based hypotheses regarding the potential for additions to oil and gas reserves in priority areas of the United States, focusing on the distribution, quantity, and availability of oil and natural gas resources. The USGS has completed an assessment of the undiscovered, technically recoverable coalbed-gas resources in Cretaceous and Tertiary rocks underlying the North Slope and adjacent State waters of Alaska (USGS Northern Alaska Province 5001). The province is a priority Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) province for the National Assessment because of its potential for oil and gas resources. The assessment of this province is based on geologic principles and uses the total petroleum system concept. The geologic elements of a total petroleum system include hydrocarbon source rocks (source rock maturation, hydrocarbon generation and migration), reservoir rocks (stratigraphy, sedimentology, petrophysical properties), and hydrocarbon traps (trap formation and timing). In the Northern Alaska Province, the USGS used this geologic framework to define one composite coalbed gas total petroleum system and three coalbed gas assessment units within the petroleum system, and quantitatively estimated the undiscovered coalbed-gas resources within each assessment unit.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

The greenscape shapes surfing of resource waves in a large migratory herbivore

The Green Wave Hypothesis posits that herbivore migration manifests in response to waves of spring green-up (i.e. green-wave surfing). Nonetheless, empirical support for the Green Wave Hypothesis is mixed, and a framework for understanding variation in surfing is lacking. In a population of migratory mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), 31% surfed plant phenology in spring as well as a theoretically perfect surfer, and 98% surfed better than random. Green-wave surfing varied among individuals and was unrelated to age or energetic state. Instead, the greenscape, which we define as the order, rate and duration of green-up along migratory routes, was the primary factor influencing surfing. Our results indicate that migratory routes are more than a link between seasonal ranges, and they provide an important, but often overlooked, foraging habitat. In addition, the spatiotemporal configuration of forage resources that propagate along migratory routes shape animal movement and presumably, energy gains during migration.

Wyoming↗
USGS2003

Carboniferous-Rotliegend total petroleum system; description and assessment results summary

The Anglo-Dutch Basin and the Northwest German Basin are two of the 76 priority basins assessed by the U.S. Geological Survey World Energy Project. The basins were assessed together because most of the resources occur within a single petroleum system (the Carboniferous-Rotliegend Total Petroleum System) that transcends the combined Anglo-Dutch Basin and Northwest German Basin boundary. The juxtaposition of thermally mature coals and carbonaceous shales of the Carboniferous Coal Measures (source rock), sandstones of the Rotliegend sedimentary systems (reservoir rock), and the Zechstein evaporites (seal) define the total petroleum system (TPS). Three assessment units were defined, based upon technological and geographic (rather than geological) criteria, that subdivide the Carboniferous-Rotliegend Total Petroleum System. These assessment units are (1) the Southern Permian Basin-Offshore Europe Assessment Unit, (2) the Southern Permian Basin Onshore Europe Assessment Unit, and (3) the Southern Permian Basin Onshore United Kingdom Assessment Unit. Although the Carboniferous-Rotliegend Total Petroleum System is one of the most intensely explored volumes of rock in the world, potential remains for undiscovered resources. Undiscovered conventional resources associated with the TPS range from 22 to 184 million barrels of oil, and from 3.6 to 14.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Of these amounts, approximately 62 million barrels of oil and 13 trillion cubic feet of gas are expected in offshore areas, and 26 million barrels of oil and 1.9 trillion cubic feet of gas are predicted in onshore areas.

Bulletin↗
USGS2016

Cenozoic volcanic rocks of Saudi Arabia

The Cenozoic volcanic rocks of Saudi Arabia cover about 90,000 km 2 , one of the largest areas of alkali olivine basalt in the world. These volcanic rocks are in 13 separate fields near the eastern coast of the Red Sea and in the western Arabian Peninsula highlands from Syria southward to the Yemen Arab Republic. The initial phase of rifting of the Arabian Plate from the African Plate began as a wide zone of continental-crust extension manifested by basin and range topography. Freshwater lakes, northwest-trending marine gulfs, and alkali olivine basalt flows occupied these basins. Extensive dike swarms intruded parallel to the proto-Red Sea and marked the first phase of new mafic crust formed by volcanic processes. After a hiatus in volcanic activity, counterclockwise rotation of the Arabian Plate during middle Miocene time changed the stress pattern in the plate and a second phase of extrusion of alkali olivine basalt commenced along north-trending fractures. This stress pattern continues to influence Holocene volcanism. The earliest (pre-uplift) basalts to erupt on the Arabian Plate were predominantly undersaturated picrite and ankaramite, whereas those to erupt near the axis of the proto-Red Sea rift zone were tholeiite. The within-plate volcanic rocks evolved from picrite-ankaramite to alkali olivine basalt with minor volumes of fractionated, undersaturated felsic rocks. Continued crustal thinning and dike intrusion along the proto-Red Sea were accompanied by melting of the continental crust to produce silicic magma as part of a bimodal volcanic suite (tholeiite-rhyolite). These magmas were emplaced as dikes, sills, layered bodies, and flows that mark the early construction of the Red Sea crust. Second-phase lavas are predominantly fractionated hawaiites and alkali olivine basalts. Because undersaturated and oversaturated silicic magmas represent the second phase of activity, both fractional crystallization of the basaltic magma and melting of the crust are believed to have occurred. The historical record of volcanic activity in Saudi Arabia suggests that volcanism is dormant. The harrats should be evaluated for their potential as volcanic hazards and as sources of geothermal energy. The volcanic rocks are natural traps for groundwater; thus water resources for agriculture may be significant and should be investigated.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1997

Winter mortality of common loons in Florida coastal waters

Diagnostic findings are presented for 434 common loons (Gavia imrner) found sick or dead on Florida beaches from 1970 through 1994, primarily during the months of December to April. The most commonly recognized problem was an emaciation syndrome (66%), followed by oiling (18%), aspergillosis (7%), trauma (5%) and miscellaneous disease entities (1%). The cause-of-death for 3% of the birds was not determined. Many of the carcasses examined (n = 173) were obtained during an epizootic which occurred from January to March of 1983 in which more than 13,000 loons were estimated to have died. An emaciation syndrome, characterized by severe atrophy of pectoral muscles, loss of body fat and hemorrhagic enteritis, was the primary finding in this epizootic. It was postulated to have a complex etiologic basis involving synergistic effects and energy costs of migration, molting and replacement of flight feathers, food resource changes, salt-loading, intestinal parasitism, environmental contaminants, and inclement weather.

Florida↗
USGS2009

Introduction to special section on impacts of land use change on water resources

Changes in land use have potentially large impacts on water resources, yet quantifying these impacts remains among the more challenging problems in hydrology. Water, food, energy, and climate are linked through complex webs of direct and indirect effects and feedbacks. Land use is undergoing major changes due not only to pressures for more efficient food, feed, and fiber production to support growing populations but also due to policy shifts that are creating markets for biofuel and agricultural carbon sequestration. Hydrologic systems embody flows of water, solutes, sediments, and energy that vary even in the absence of human activity. Understanding land use impacts thus necessitates integrated scientific approaches. Field measurements, remote sensing, and modeling studies are shedding new light on the modes and mechanisms by which land use changes impact water resources. Such studies can help deconflate the interconnected influences of human actions and natural variations on the quantity and quality of soil water, surface water, and groundwater, past, present, and future.

Water Resources Research↗