Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Nature, Scientific Data”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources

Comparison of index velocity measurements made with a horizontal acoustic Doppler current profiler

The State of Illinois' annual withdrawal from Lake Michigan is limited by a U.S. Supreme Court decree, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for monitoring flows in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) near Lemont, Illinois as a part of the Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting overseen by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District. Every 5 years, a technical review committee consisting of practicing engineers and academics is convened to review the U.S. Geological Survey's streamgage practices in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. The sixth technical review committee raised a number of questions concerning the flows and streamgage practices in the CSSC near Lemont and this report provides answers to many of those questions. In addition, it is the purpose of this report to examine the index velocity meters in use at Lemont and determine whether the acoustic velocity meter (AVM), which is now the primary index velocity meter, can be replaced by the horizontal acoustic Doppler current profiler (H-ADCP), which is currently the backup meter. Application of the AVM and H-ADCP to index velocity measurements in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois, has produced good ratings to date. The site is well suited to index velocity measurements in spite of the large range of velocities and highly unsteady flows at the site. Flow variability arises from a range of sources: operation of the waterway through control structures, lockage-generated disturbances, commercial and recreational traffic, industrial withdrawals and discharges, natural inflows, seiches, and storm events. The influences of these factors on the index velocity measurements at Lemont is examined in detail in this report. Results of detailed data comparisons and flow analyses show that use of bank-mounted instrumentation such as the AVM and H-ADCP appears to be the best option for index velocity measurement in the CSSC near Lemont. Comparison of the rating curves for the AVM and H-ADCP demonstrates that the H-ADCP is a suitable replacement for the AVM as the primary index velocity meter in the CSSC near Lemont. A key component to Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting is the USGS gaging station on the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. The importance of this gaging station in monitoring withdrawals from Lake Michigan has made it one of the most highly scrutinized gaging stations in the country. Any changes in streamgaging practices at this gaging station requires detailed analysis to ensure the change will not adversely affect the ability of the USGS to accurately monitor flows. This report provides a detailed analysis of the flow structure and index velocity measurements in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois, to ensure that decisions regarding the future of this streamgage are made with the best possible understanding of the site and the characteristics of the flow.

Illinois↗

Availability and distribution of low flow in Anahola Stream, Kauaʻi, Hawaiʻi

Anahola Stream is a perennial stream in northeast Kauaʻi, Hawaiʻi, that supports agricultural, domestic, and cultural uses within its drainage basin. Beginning in the late 19th century, Anahola streamflow was diverted by Makee Sugar Company at altitudes of 840 feet (upper intake) and 280 feet (lower intake) for irrigating sugarcane in the Keālia area. When sugarcane cultivation in the Keālia area ceased in 1988, part of the Makee Sugar Company’s surface-water collection system (Makee diversion system) in the Anahola drainage basin was abandoned. In an effort to better manage available surface-water resources, the State of Hawaiʻi Department of Hawaiian Home Lands is considering using the existing ditches in the Anahola Stream drainage basin to provide irrigation water for Native Hawaiian farmers in the area. To provide information needed for successful management of the surface-water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey investigated the availability and distribution of natural low flow in Anahola Stream and also collected low-flow data in Goldfish Stream, a stream that discharges into Kaneha Reservoir, which served as a major collection point for the Makee diversion system. Biological surveys of Anahola Stream were conducted as part of a study to determine the distribution of native and nonnative aquatic stream fauna. Results of the biological surveys indicated the presence of the following native aquatic species in Anahola Stream: ʻoʻopu ʻakupa (Sandwich Island sleeper) and ʻoʻopu naniha (Tear-drop goby) in the lower stream reaches surveyed; and ʻoʻopu nākea (Pacific river goby), ʻoʻopu nōpili (Stimpson’s goby), and ʻōpae kalaʻole (Mountain shrimp) in the middle and upper stream reaches surveyed. Nonnative aquatic species were found in all of the surveyed stream reaches along Anahola Stream. The availability and distribution of natural low flow were determined using a combination of discharge measurements made from February 2011 to May 2012 at low-flow partial-record and seepage-run stations established at locations of interest along study-area streams. Upstream of the upper intake, the estimated natural (undiverted) median flow in Anahola Stream is 2.7 million gallons per day, and the flow is expected to be greater than or equal to 0.97 million gallons per day 95 percent of the time. About 0.7 mile upstream of the lower intake and downstream from the confluence with Keaʻoʻopu Stream, the estimated natural (undiverted) median flow in Anahola Stream is 6.3 million gallons per day, and the flow is expected to be greater than or equal to 2.7 million gallons per day 95 percent of the time. In Goldfish Stream, about 0.4 mile upstream from the point of discharge into Kaneha Reservoir, the estimated natural median flow is 0.54 million gallons per day, and the flow is expected to be greater than or equal to 0.23 million gallons per day 95 percent of the time. The discharge estimates are representative of low-flow conditions in the study-area streams, and they are applicable to the base period (water years 1961–2011) over which they have been computed. The distribution of natural low flow in Anahola Stream was characterized through data collected during wet- and dry-season seepage runs. Seepage-run results show that Anahola Stream was generally a gaining stream under natural low-flow conditions. During the wet-season seepage run, Anahola Stream at the station located upstream of tributary Kaʻalula Stream had more than five times the flow that was measured upstream from the upper intake. The estimated total gain (including tributary inflow) in the 6.1-mile seepage-run reach was 6.97 million gallons per day; about 42 percent of that gain was groundwater discharge to the main channel of Anahola Stream. During the dry-season seepage run, about 34 percent of the estimated total gain of 3.93 million gallons per day in the same seepage-run reach was groundwater discharge to the main channel of Anahola Stream. A 15-percent seepage loss was estimated in a 0.3-mile reach downstream from the confluence of Anahola and Keaʻoʻopu Streams. The report summarizes scenarios that describe (1) surface-water availability under regulated conditions of Anahola Stream if the upper and lower intakes are restored in the future; and (2) amount of flow available for agricultural use at the upper intake under a variety of potential instream-flow standards that may be established by the State of Hawaiʻi for the protection of instream uses.

Hawai'i↗

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI’s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI’s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists’ League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program’s development and success. The value of ARMI’s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI’s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrologic and sediment data collected from selected basins at the Fort Leonard Wood Military Reservation, Missouri--2010-11

Commercial and residential development within a basin often increases the amount of impervious area, which changes the natural hydrologic response to storm events by increasing runoff. Land development and disturbance combined with increased runoff from impervious areas potentially can increase sediment transport. At the Fort Leonard Wood Military Reservation in Missouri, there has been an increase in population and construction activities in the recent past, which has initiated an assessment of the hydrology in selected basins. From April 2010 to December 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Maneuver Support Center at the Fort Leonard Wood Military Reservation, collected hydrologic and suspended-sediment concentration data in six basins at Fort Leonard Wood. Storm-sediment concentration, load, and yield varied from basin to basin and from storm to storm. In general, storm-sediment yield, in pounds per square mile per minute, was greatest from Ballard Hollow tributary (06928410) and Dry Creek (06930250), and monthly storm-sediment yield, in tons per square mile, estimates were largest in Ballard Hollow tributary (06928410), East Gate Hollow tributary (06930058), and Dry Creek (06930250). Sediment samples, collected at nine sites, primarily were collected using automatic samplers and augmented with equal-width-increment cross-sectional samples and manually collected samples when necessary. Storm-sediment load and yield were computed from discharge and suspended-sediment concentration data. Monthly storm-sediment yields also were estimated from the total storm discharge and the mean suspended-sediment concentration at each given site.

Missouri↗

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the Redding–Red Bluff shallow aquifer study unit, 2019—California GAMA priority basin project

Groundwater quality in the north Sacramento Valley (NSV) was studied in the Redding–Red Bluff shallow aquifer study unit (referred to as the NSV shallow aquifer or NSV-SA) as part of the Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The study unit is in Shasta and Tehama Counties and included two physiographic study areas: (1) the Redding area to the north and (2) the Red Bluff area to the south. The study was focused on groundwater resources used for domestic drinking-water supply, which are mostly drawn from shallower parts of aquifer systems than those of groundwater resources used for public drinking-water supply in the same area. This assessment characterized the quality of ambient groundwater in the aquifer before filtration or treatment, rather than the quality of drinking water delivered to the tap. The water-quality evaluation in this study has three components: (1) a status assessment, which characterized the quality of the groundwater resources used for domestic supply for 2018–19, in reference to state and national benchmarks; (2) an understanding assessment, which evaluated the natural and human factors potentially affecting water quality in those resources; and (3) a comparison between the groundwater resources used for domestic supply and those used for public supply in the region. The status assessment was based on data collected from 50 sites sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey for the GAMA-PBP in 2018–19. To provide context for the measured concentrations of groundwater constituents compared to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and California State Water Resources Control Board Division of Drinking Water regulatory and non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality, relative concentrations (RCs) of groundwater constituents were calculated as the concentration in a sample divided by the respective benchmark. Health-based benchmarks include regulatory and non-regulatory human-health benchmarks such as a maximum contaminant level, notification level, or health-based screening level. Aesthetic-based benchmarks are regulatory or non-regulatory non-health-based benchmarks that can affect the color or taste of water. A grid-based method was used to estimate the proportions of the groundwater resources used for domestic drinking wells that have water-quality constituents below (low), approaching (moderate, greater than half the benchmark), or above (high) benchmark concentrations. This method provides statistically unbiased results at the study-area scale and permits comparisons to other GAMA-PBP study areas.

California↗

Application guide for AFINCH (Analysis of Flows in Networks of Channels) described by NHDPlus

AFINCH (Analysis of Flows in Networks of CHannels) is a computer application that can be used to generate a time series of monthly flows at stream segments (flowlines) and water yields for catchments defined in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) value-added attribute system. AFINCH provides a basis for integrating monthly flow data from streamgages, water-use data, monthly climatic data, and land-cover characteristics to estimate natural monthly water yields from catchments by user-defined regression equations. Images of monthly water yields for active streamgages are generated in AFINCH and provide a basis for detecting anomalies in water yields, which may be associated with undocumented flow diversions or augmentations. Water yields are multiplied by the drainage areas of the corresponding catchments to estimate monthly flows. Flows from catchments are accumulated downstream through the streamflow network described by the stream segments. For stream segments where streamgages are active, ratios of measured to accumulated flows are computed. These ratios are applied to upstream water yields to proportionally adjust estimated flows to match measured flows. Flow is conserved through the NHDPlus network. A time series of monthly flows can be generated for stream segments that average about 1-mile long, or monthly water yields from catchments that average about 1 square mile. Estimated monthly flows can be displayed within AFINCH, examined for nonstationarity, and tested for monotonic trends. Monthly flows also can be used to estimate flow-duration characteristics at stream segments. AFINCH generates output files of monthly flows and water yields that are compatible with ArcMap, a geographical information system analysis and display environment. Chloropleth maps of monthly water yield and flow can be generated and analyzed within ArcMap by joining NHDPlus data structures with AFINCH output. Matlab code for the AFINCH application is presented.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Groundwater discharge to the Mississippi River and groundwater balances for the Interstate 94 Corridor surficial aquifer, Clearwater to Elk River, Minnesota, 2012–14

The Interstate 94 Corridor has been identified as 1 of 16 Minnesota groundwater areas of concern because of its limited available groundwater resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, completed six seasonal and annual groundwater balances for parts of the Interstate 94 Corridor surficial aquifer to better understand its long-term (next several decades) sustainability. A high-precision Mississippi River groundwater discharge measurement of 5.23 cubic feet per second per mile was completed at low-flow conditions to better inform these groundwater balances. The recharge calculation methods RISE program and Soil-Water-Balance model were used to inform the groundwater balances. For the RISE-derived recharge estimates, the range was from 3.30 to 11.91 inches per year; for the SWB-derived recharge estimates, the range was from 5.23 to 17.06 inches per year. Calculated groundwater discharges ranged from 1.45 to 5.06 cubic feet per second per mile, a ratio of 27.7 to 96.4 percent of the measured groundwater discharge. Ratios of groundwater pumping to total recharge ranged from 8.6 to 97.2 percent, with the longer-term groundwater balances ranging from 12.9 to 19 percent. Overall, this study focused on the surficial aquifer system and its interactions with the Mississippi River. During the study period (October 1, 2012, through November 30, 2014), six synoptic measurements, along with continuous groundwater hydrographs, rainfall records, and a compilation of the pertinent irrigation data, establishes the framework for future groundwater modeling efforts.

Minnesota↗

Maps of elevation of top of Pierre Shale and surficial deposit thickness with hydraulic properties from borehole geophysics and aquifers tests within and near Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota, 2020–21

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force Civil Engineer Center, collected borehole geophysical data and completed simple aquifer tests to estimate the thickness and hydraulic properties of surficial deposits. The purpose of data collection was to create generalized contour maps of Pierre Shale elevation and surficial deposit thickness within and near Ellsworth Air Force Base (study area). Natural gamma and electromagnetic induction data were collected to refine or determine surficial deposit thickness at selected wells. Additionally, data from previous geophysical studies and driller logs were compiled and combined with results from natural gamma and electromagnetic induction data to provide a more spatially complete image of the subsurface. Borehole nuclear magnetic resonance (bNMR) data were collected to estimate hydraulic conductivity and water content of surficial deposits overlying Pierre Shale. Simple aquifer tests using water slugs (slug tests) were completed to estimate hydraulic conductivity of surficial deposits, and results were compared to hydraulic conductivity estimates from bNMR data. All data used to construct maps and estimate hydraulic properties are provided in an accompanying U.S. Geological Survey data release (available at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9FLR79F ). Generalized contour maps were constructed using results from 26 borehole geophysical logs, 35 geophysical transects from previous studies, and 304 wells with driller logs. Pierre Shale elevation generally followed land-surface topography, sloping from high elevations in the north to lower elevations in the south. Topographic highs of Pierre Shale, where present, could act as groundwater divides that potentially affect groundwater flow direction. Surficial deposit thickness varied spatially and ranged from 0 to 86 feet. Surficial deposits generally were thickest in higher elevation areas near ephemeral streams in the northern part of the study area. Hydraulic conductivity estimated from bNMR results using two analytical methods ranged from 0.1 to 2,314 feet per day, whereas hydraulic conductivity estimated from slug tests ranged from 0.001 to 193 feet per day. Hydraulic conductivity estimates from slug tests were plotted with surficial deposit thickness contours instead of bNMR estimates because bNMR estimates were determined to overestimate hydraulic conductivity. Hydraulic conductivity values generally were greater in the southwestern part of study area than the northeastern part.

South Dakota↗

Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation. 25. Summary of results and baseline and pre-mining ground-water geochemistry, Red River Valley, Taos County, New Mexico, 2001-2005

Active and inactive mine sites are challenging to remediate because of their complexity and scale. Regulations meant to achieve environmental restoration at mine sites are equally challenging to apply for the same reasons. The goal of environmental restoration should be to restore contaminated mine sites, as closely as possible, to pre-mining conditions. Metalliferous mine sites in the Western United States are commonly located in hydrothermally altered and mineralized terrain in which pre-mining concentrations of metals were already anomalously high. Typically, those pre-mining concentrations were not measured, but sometimes they can be reconstructed using scientific inference. Molycorp?s Questa molybdenum mine in the Red River Valley, northern New Mexico, is located near the margin of the Questa caldera in a highly mineralized region. The State of New Mexico requires that ground-water quality standards be met on closure unless it can be shown that potential contaminant concentrations were higher than the standards before mining. No ground water at the mine site had been chemically analyzed before mining. The aim of this investigation, in cooperation with the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED), is to infer the pre-mining ground-water quality by an examination of the geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical controls on ground-water quality in a nearby, or proximal, analog site in the Straight Creek drainage basin. Twenty-seven reports contain details of investigations on the geological, hydrological, and geochemical characteristics of the Red River Valley that are summarized in this report. These studies include mapping of surface mineralogy by Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometry (AVIRIS); compilations of historical surface- and ground- water quality data; synoptic/tracer studies with mass loading and temporal water-quality trends of the Red River; reaction-transport modeling of the Red River; environmental geology of the Red River Valley; lake-sediment chemistry; geomorphology and its effect on ground-water flow; geophysical studies on depth to ground-water table and depth to bedrock; bedrock fractures and their potential influence on ground-water flow; leaching studies of scars and waste-rock piles; mineralogy and mineral chemistry and their effect on ground-water quality; debris-flow hazards; hydrology and water balance for the Red River Valley; ground-water geochemistry of selected wells undisturbed by mining in the Red River Valley; and quality assurance and quality control of water analyses. Studies aimed specifically at the Straight Creek natural-analog site include electrical surveys; high-resolution seismic survey; age-dating with tritium/helium; water budget; ground-water hydrology and geochemistry; and comparison of mineralogy and lithology to that of the mine site. The highly mineralized and hydrothermally altered volcanic rocks of the Red River Valley contain several percent pyrite in the quartz-sericite-pyrite (QSP) alteration zone, which weather naturally to acid-sulfate surface and ground waters that discharge to the Red River. Weathering of waste-rock piles containing pyrite also contributes acid water that eventually discharges into the Red River. These acid discharges are neutralized by circumneutral-pH, carbonate-buffered surface and ground waters of the Red River. The buffering capacity of the Red River, however, decreases from the town of Red River to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging station near Questa. During short, but intense, storm events, the buffering capacity is exceeded and the river becomes acid from the rapid flushing of acidic materials from natural scar areas. The lithology, mineralogy, elevation, and hydrology of the Straight Creek proximal analog site were found to closely approximate those of the mine site with the exception of the mine site?s Sulphur Gulch catchment. Sulphur Gulch contains three subcatchments?upper Sulphur Gulch, Blind Gulch, and Spring Gulc

New Mexico↗

Estimating Locations of Perennial Streams in Idaho Using a Generalized Least-Squares Regression Model of 7-Day, 2-Year Low Flows

Many State and Federal agencies use information regarding the locations of streams having intermittent or perennial flow when making management and regulatory decisions. For example, the application of some Idaho water quality standards depends on whether streams are intermittent. Idaho Administrative Code defines an intermittent stream as one having a 7-day, 2-year low flow (7Q2) less than 0.1 ft3/s. However, there is a general recognition that the cartographic representation of perennial/intermittent status of streams on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) topographic maps is not as accurate or consistent as desirable from one map to another, which makes broad management and regulatory assessments difficult and inconsistent. To help resolve this problem, the USGS has developed a methodology for predicting the locations of perennial streams based on regional generalized least-squares (GLS) regression equations for Idaho streams for the 7Q2 low-flow statistic. Using these regression equations, the 7Q2 streamflow may be estimated for naturally flowing streams in most areas in Idaho. The use of these equations in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) technique known as weighted flow accumulation allows for an automated and continuous estimation of 7Q2 streamflow at all points along stream reaches. The USGS has developed a GIS-based map of the locations of streams in Idaho with perennial flow based on a 7Q2 of 0.1 ft3/s and a transition zone of plus or minus 1 standard error. Idaho State cooperators plan to use this information to make regulatory and water-quality management decisions. Originally, 7Q2 equations were developed for eight regions of similar hydrologic characteristics in the study area, using long-term data from 234 streamflow-gaging stations. Equations in five of the regions were revised based on spatial patterns observed in the initial perennial streams map and unrealistic behavior of the equations in extrapolation. The standard errors of prediction for the final equations ranged from a minimum of +75.0 to -42.9 percent in the central part of the study area to a maximum of +277 to -73.5 percent in the southern part of the study area. The equations are applicable only to unregulated, naturally-flowing streams and may produce unreliable results outside the range of explanatory variables used for equation development. Extrapolation outside the range of available data was necessary, however, to predict perennial flow initiation points and transition zones along stream reaches. The map of perennial streams was evaluated by comparing predicted stream classifications with four independent datasets, including field observations by other government agencies. Overall, 81 percent of the comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Regions with the highest number of disagreements had a high percentage of mountainous and forested area with potential mountain front recharge zones, and regions with the highest agreements had a high percentage of low gradient, low elevation area. As a whole, the USGS model predicted a higher number of perennial streams than predictions made with the independent datasets. Some disagreements were due to poor site location coordinates, timing of the comparison site visits during unusually wet or dry years, discrepancies in classification criteria, and variable ground water contributions to flow in some areas. The Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Beneficial Use Reconnaissance Program (BURP) dataset is considered the most representative dataset for comparison because it covered a range of climate conditions and the number of sites visited were consistent from year to year during the study period. Eighty-five percent of BURP comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Although site-specific flow data may be needed to correctly classify streams in some areas, this information rarely is available and is not always practical to o

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Preliminary groundwater flow model of the basin-fill aquifers in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys, Mohave County, northwestern Arizona

Preliminary numerical models were developed to simulate groundwater flow in the basin-fill alluvium in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys in northwestern Arizona. The purpose of this exercise was to gather and evaluate available information and data, to test natural‑recharge concepts, and to indicate directions for improving future regional groundwater models of the study area. Both steady-state and transient models were developed with a single layer incorporating vertically averaged hydraulic properties over the model layer. Boundary conditions for the models were constant-head cells along the northern and western edges of the study area, corresponding to the location of the Colorado River, and no-flow boundaries along the bedrock ridges that bound the rest of the study area, except for specified flow where Truxton Wash enters the southern end of Hualapai Valley. Steady-state conditions were simulated for the pre-1935 period, before the construction of Hoover Dam in the northwestern part of the model area. Two recharge scenarios were investigated using the steady-state model—one in which natural aquifer recharge occurs directly in places where water is available from precipitation, and another in which natural aquifer recharge from precipitation occurs in the basin-fill alluvium that drains areas of available water. A transient model with 31 stress periods was constructed to simulate groundwater flow for the period 1935–2010. The transient model incorporates changing Colorado River, Lake Mead, and Lake Mohave water levels and includes time-varying groundwater withdrawals and aquifer recharge. Both the steady-state and transient models were calibrated to available water-level observations in basin-f ill alluvium, and simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the study area.

Arizona↗

Visualization of petroleum exploration maturity for six petroleum provinces outside the United States and Canada

Outside the United States and Canada, most of the world’s supplies of oil and natural gas are recovered from conventional (or discrete) oil and gas accumulations. This type of hydrocarbon accumulation remains a target for exploration. In this report, exploration and discovery data are used to visually assist in describing the exploration maturity of selected petroleum provinces with respect to conventional oil and natural gas accumulations. The specific provinces are the Campos Basin (Brazil), the Santos Basin (Brazil), the North Sea Graben (northwestern Europe), the Middle Magdelena Basin (Colombia), the Sirte Basin (Libya), and the Kutei Basin (Indonesia). For each province, discovery data and well data through October 2019 are reported; from these data, depth distributions of the oil in oil fields and natural gas in gas fields were computed. The concepts of delineated prospective area and explored area include elements of geographic spatial information and statistical data analytics. Graphs showing dynamic growth of discoveries that are tied to the delineated prospective area provide a means of grading prospective area. Visualizations put the results of exploration in the context of geographic and geologic features of the play or basin and can be a tool to assist geologists with the appraisal of the number and sizes of undiscovered petroleum accumulations. Visualizations of exploration drilling and discoveries can (1) assist in conceptualizing a geologic model of the basin, (2) highlight relations among discovered accumulations in different plays or assessment units within the basin, and (3) allow the geologist to identify the missing information needed to complete the geologic model of a basin. Further, if visualization attributes can be quantified, they may be used for formulating quantitative models that predict numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations. Such modeling approaches include discovery process models, Bayesian network models that characterize play or assessment unit dependencies, and innovative applications of machine learning to complement standard geologic assessments. The purpose of this report is to show how visualizations can further the understanding of exploration maturity for the six selected petroleum provinces. It also shows how the geologic framework, geologic data, and drilling and discovery trends can give context to the interpretation of the visualizations that lead to appraisal of exploration maturity.

Campos Basin, Kutei Basin, Middle Magdelena Basin,↗

Hydrologic conditions and lake-level fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, 1939-2004, White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota

Long Lost Lake, a closed-basin lake in Clearwater County, Minnesota, has had a substantial rise in lake level since 1990. The increased level and surface area of the lake has led to the inundation of nearby homes and roads. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the White Earth Band of Chippewa Indians, conducted a study to document the historical lake-level fluctuations, to investigate reasons for hydrologic change, and to develop a general understanding of the hydrology of lakes that have had rapid changes in lake level. Lake levels were recorded continuously from August 2003 through December 2004. The purpose was to establish a temporal, detailed record of lake levels and to connect this record to precipitation and ground-water-level data. A long-term record is critical to understanding the relation between surface water and ground water. This is especially true for closed-basin lakes. Between August 2003 and December 2004, the lake level generally declined. The highest lake altitude was 492.58 meters above NAVD 88 on August 5, 2003, and the low of 492.11 meters above NAVD 88 occurred on August 29, 2004. Results of water-level measurements in 5 observation wells and 14 wetlands and ponds show that the water-table level is substantially higher on the north side of the lake than the lake level, providing the head pressure necessary for ground-water discharge into Long Lost Lake. In contrast, on the south and east sides of the lake, water-table levels are similar to the lake level. This indicates a general north-northwest to south-southeast ground-water flow direction. Results of a synoptic survey of lake temperature and other measurements supported the direction of water inflow and outflow. Aerial photography and a geographic information system were used to construct a historical lake record from 1939 to 2001. Lake-level increases match similar increases in precipitation, indicating a strong link between the two. Results show that lake-level increases in Long Lost Lake appear to primarily be due to natural rather than anthropogenic effects.

Minnesota↗

A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996-2008

This report documents the construction of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow in the Smith River watershed, Montana. This Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, constructed in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, can be used to examine the general hydrologic framework of the Smith River watershed, including quantification of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow; partitioning of streamflow between surface runoff and subsurface flow; and quantifying contributions to streamflow from several parts of the watershed. The model was constructed by using spatial datasets describing watershed topography, the streams, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. Time-series data (daily total precipitation, and daily minimum and maximum temperature) were input to the model to simulate daily streamflow. The model was calibrated for water years 2002–2007 and evaluated for water years 1996–2001. Though water year 2008 was included in the study period to evaluate water-budget components, calibration and evaluation data were unavailable for that year. During the calibration and evaluation periods, simulated-natural flow values were compared to reconstructed-natural streamflow data. These reconstructed-natural streamflow data were calculated by adding Bureau of Reclamation’s depletions data to the observed streamflows. Reconstructed-natural streamflows represent estimates of streamflows for water years 1996–2007 assuming there was no agricultural water-resources development in the watershed. Additional calibration targets were basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The model estimated the hydrologic processes in the Smith River watershed during the calibration and evaluation periods. Simulated-natural mean annual and mean monthly flows generally were the same or higher than the reconstructed-natural streamflow values during the calibration period, whereas they were lower during the evaluation period. The shape of the annual hydrographs for the simulated-natural daily streamflow values matched the shape of the hydrographs for the reconstructed-natural values for most of the calibration period, but daily streamflow values were underestimated during the evaluation period for water years 1996–1998. The model enabled a detailed evaluation of the components of the water budget within the Smith River watershed during the water year 1996–2008 study period. During this study period, simulated mean annual precipitation across the Smith River watershed was 16 inches, out of which 14 inches evaporated or transpired and 2 inches left the basin as streamflow. Per the precipitation-runoff model simulations, during most of the year, surface runoff rarely (less than 2 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008) makes up more than 10 percent of the total streamflow. Subsurface flow (the combination of interflow and groundwater flow) makes up most of the total streamflow (99 or more percent of total streamflow for 71 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008).

Montana↗

Are the Columbia River Basalts, Columbia Plateau, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, USA, a viable geothermal target? A preliminary analysis

The successful development of a geothermal electric power generation facility relies on (1) the identification of sufficiently high temperatures at an economically viable depth and (2) the existence of or potential to create and maintain a permeable zone (permeability >10 -14 m 2 ) of sufficient size to allow efficient long-term extraction of heat from the reservoir host rock. If both occur at depth under the Columbia Plateau, development of geothermal resources there has the potential to expand both the magnitude and spatial extent of geothermal energy production. However, a number of scientific and technical issues must be resolved in order to evaluate the likelihood that the Columbia River Basalts, or deeper geologic units under the Columbia Plateau, are viable geothermal targets. Recent research has demonstrated that heat flow beneath the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System may be higher than previously measured in relatively shallow (<600 m depth) wells, indicating that sufficient temperatures for electricity generation occur at depths 5 km. The remaining consideration is evaluating the likelihood that naturally high permeability exists, or that it is possible to replicate the high average permeability (approximately 10 -14 to 10 -12 m 2 ) characteristic of natural hydrothermal reservoirs. From a hydraulic perspective, Columbia River Basalts are typically divided into dense, impermeable flow interiors and interflow zones comprising the top of one flow, the bottom of the overlying flow, and any sedimentary interbed. Interflow zones are highly variable in texture but, at depths <600 m, some of them form highly permeable regional aquifers with connectivity over many tens of kilometers. Below depths of ~600 m, permeability reduction occurs in many interflow zones, caused by the formation of low-temperature hydrothermal alteration minerals (corresponding to temperatures above ~35 °C). However, some high permeability (>10-14 m 2 ) interflows are documented at depths up to ~1,400 m. If the elevated permeability in these zones persists to greater depths, they may provide natural permeability of sufficient magnitude to allow their exploitation as conventional geothermal reservoirs. Alternatively, if the permeability in these interflow zones is less than 10-14 m 2 at depth, it may be possible to use hydraulic and thermal stimulation to enhance the permeability of both the interflow zones and the natural jointing within the low-permeability interior portions of individual basalt flows in order to develop Enhanced/Engineered Geothermal System (EGS) reservoirs. The key challenge for an improved Columbia Plateau geothermal assessment is acquiring and interpreting comprehensive field data that can provide quantitative constraints on the recovery of heat from the Columbia River Basalts at depths greater than those currently tested by deep boreholes.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon↗

USGS—An Unparalleled Scientific Asset

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers information critical to powering our economy, managing our natural resources, and keeping Americans safe and healthy. 1 Mapping the Nation $21B Geologic maps save users an estimated 15% in annual costs: a value of between $14B and $21B. $25.6B in annual value to users of imagery from Landsat satellites, which were codeveloped by NASA and the USGS and operated through their lifespans by the USGS. $13.5B in annual benefits is generated by the USGS's 3D Elevation Program. Securing America’s Energy Independence 44% USGS-identified undiscovered geothermal energy is equal to 44% of current U.S. electricity generation. 29.4B barrels of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of gas in recoverable resources are available on U.S. public lands based on USGS assessments. Protecting Americans’ Health and Safety $424B in recent wildland fire damages highlight the need for USGS fire science, which supports efforts to protect communities and reduce risk. USGS earthquake, volcano, landslide, and coastal hazard monitoring and information save lives and minimize costs; for example, $2.8M can be saved because of USGS enhanced information about a Mauna Loa eruption. $4.5B is the estimated cost of annual flooding. Through a network of over 11,885 streamgages, the USGS supports public safety and enables forecasts, early warning systems, and management actions that protect lives and property. Supporting National Security $3.1B The USGS identified a $3.1B risk to the American economy if China restricts gallium imports. This is one example underscoring the importance of the USGS mapping critical minerals, investigating supply chains, and producing the Nation’s critical minerals list. Enhancing Our Lands and Waters $21B in estimated annual costs results from invasive species. The USGS’s invasive species research informs approaches used to reduce their effects on agriculture, water infrastructure, disease transmission, fisheries, and outdoor recreation. USGS innovations support early warnings for harmful algal blooms—over $2M in yearly benefits are provided to Kansas alone. $45B USGS science informs the management of big game (such as deer and elk). The big-game hunting industry contributes $45B to the U.S. economy. Fostering American Prosperity $4.1T Mineral commodities are necessary for the $4.1T in value added to the GDP by major industries that consume processed mineral materials and employ 1 million workers. Because of this, USGS data on mineral supply, demand, and trade are highly valued. 45,000 metric tons Rare earths power the growing technology economy, including cell phones, electric vehicles, and medical devices. For over 70 years, USGS work has supported the discovery of rare earth resources in California’s Mountain Pass area, which produced 45,000 metric tons of rare earth concentrates in 2024—over 11% of the global supply. Guarding American Food Security $70.2B USGS science informs early warning systems and management strategies to mitigate disease outbreaks in agriculture—critical research on highly pathogenic avian influenza, for example, helps safeguard the $70B value in poultry and egg production. $11.8B USGS groundwater tools are vital for agriculture; for example, in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 65% of farming relies on groundwater to support its $11.8B annual industry. 1 Values throughout are given in billions (B), millions (M), and trillions (T) of U.S. dollars. GDP is “Gross Domestic Product.” Percentages are shown as %.

General Information Product↗

Estimation of Leakage Potential of Selected Sites in Interstate and Tri-State Canals Using Geostatistical Analysis of Selected Capacitively Coupled Resistivity Profiles, Western Nebraska, 2004

With increasing demands for reliable water supplies and availability estimates, groundwater flow models often are developed to enhance understanding of surface-water and groundwater systems. Specific hydraulic variables must be known or calibrated for the groundwater-flow model to accurately simulate current or future conditions. Surface geophysical surveys, along with selected test-hole information, can provide an integrated framework for quantifying hydrogeologic conditions within a defined area. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Platte Natural Resources District, performed a surface geophysical survey using a capacitively coupled resistivity technique to map the lithology within the top 8 meters of the near-surface for 110 kilometers of the Interstate and Tri-State Canals in western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming. Assuming that leakage between the surface-water and groundwater systems is affected primarily by the sediment directly underlying the canal bed, leakage potential was estimated from the simple vertical mean of inverse-model resistivity values for depth levels with geometrically increasing layer thickness with depth which resulted in mean-resistivity values biased towards the surface. This method generally produced reliable results, but an improved analysis method was needed to account for situations where confining units, composed of less permeable material, underlie units with greater permeability. In this report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Platte Natural Resources District, the authors use geostatistical analysis to develop the minimum-unadjusted method to compute a relative leakage potential based on the minimum resistivity value in a vertical column of the resistivity model. The minimum-unadjusted method considers the effects of homogeneous confining units. The minimum-adjusted method also is developed to incorporate the effect of local lithologic heterogeneity on water transmission. Seven sites with differing geologic contexts were selected following review of the capacitively coupled resistivity data collected in 2004. A reevaluation of these sites using the mean, minimum-unadjusted, and minimum-adjusted methods was performed to compare the different approaches for estimating leakage potential. Five of the seven sites contained underlying confining units, for which the minimum-unadjusted and minimum-adjusted methods accounted for the confining-unit effect. Estimates of overall leakage potential were lower for the minimum-unadjusted and minimum-adjusted methods than those estimated by the mean method. For most sites, the local heterogeneity adjustment procedure of the minimum-adjusted method resulted in slightly larger overall leakage-potential estimates. In contrast to the mean method, the two minimum-based methods allowed the least permeable areas to control the overall vertical permeability of the subsurface. The minimum-adjusted method refined leakage-potential estimation by additionally including local lithologic heterogeneity effects.

Scientific Investigations Report↗