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USGS2023

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment ( i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features ( i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms ( e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods ( e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

Geothermics↗

USGS2020

Using multiple environmental proxies and hydrodynamic modeling to investigate Late Holocene climate and coastal change within a large Gulf of Mexico estuarine system (Mobile Bay, Alabama, USA)

A high degree of uncertainty exists for understanding and predicting coastal estuarine response to changing climate, land-use, and sea-level conditions, leaving geologic records as a best-proxy for constraining potential outcomes. With the majority of the world's population focused in coastal regions, understanding how local systems respond to global, regional, and even local pressures is key in developing mitigation, adaptation, and management plans. The geomorphology of Mobile Bay in southeast Alabama (USA) has evolved considerably (e.g., bayhead delta back-stepping) over the late Holocene in response to global and regional sea-level and climate change. Smaller-scale geomorphic changes (e.g., spit and beach ridge development) have also had a significant influence on the evolution of the estuary. Organic matter characteristics, inorganic sediment geochemistry, benthic microfossils, and pollen in a ~ 3500 cal yr BP sediment sequence recovered in a gravity core (20GC) from Bon Secour Bay, a small sub-bay in the southeast corner of Mobile Bay, record time-varying marine influence. Increases in marine influence during ~3500 to 2300 cal yr BP and 1930 to 1160 cal yr BP are defined as zones with high-density and pre-dominantly calcareous foraminiferal species, abundant sand (>10%) and more marine-like geochemical signatures, which contrast the low-density and pre-dominantly agglutinated foraminiferal and more terrestrially influenced estuarine muds observed in other intervals of the sedimentary record (2300–1930 and 1160–400 cal yr BP) and the modern bay. Hydrodynamic models constrained by geomorphic boundary conditions for the time ~ 3500 cal yr BP, consistent with the most prominent marine-influenced sediment, provide insight to potential coastal configuration that might have permitted such marine water intrusion into the bay. Of several scenarios evaluated, a breach in Morgan Peninsula produces tidal circulation within the basin supportive of persistent marine incursions in the bay between ~3500 to 2300 cal yr BP. The findings show that slight variations in coastal configuration can have broad-scale effects on bays and estuaries with consequences that may relate to water quality, vertebrate and invertebrate habitat, and coastal vulnerability to episodic events like (extra)tropical storms.

Alabama, Mississippi↗

USGS2021

Testing hypotheses on signatures of precipitation variability in the river and floodplain deposits of the Paleogene San Juan Basin, New Mexico, USA

Much progress has been made in recent years towards a set of recognition criteria for river discharge variability in river channel deposits, and thus sedimentary proxies for precipitation variability. Despite this progress, there is currently no consensus on how different styles of discharge variability are reflected in river sedimentary records, and whether variable-discharge river records from different climate types can be distinguished. Herein, river discharge and precipitation variability in the Paleogene is investigated using associations between river channel and floodplain deposits across the Paleocene-Eocene boundary from the Paleocene upper Nacimiento Formation and the early Eocene San Jose Formation in the San Juan Basin, New Mexico, USA. The succession is identified as deposits of variable-discharge river systems based on shared channel-deposit characteristics with modern and ancient variable-discharge river systems and the proposed facies models, in addition to alternations of poorly drained and well-drained floodplain deposits and/or slickensides indicating alternating wet-dry cycles. A long-term stratigraphic trend toward increasingly well-drained floodplain deposits is also observed and hypothesized to indicate successively more arid conditions from the Paleocene into the early Eocene. Comparisons with modern rivers from various climate zones suggest a long-term shift from a monsoonal climate in the Paleocene, to a fluctuating subhumid climate, ultimately leading to semiarid to arid conditions in the early Eocene. These observations suggest that floodplain deposits may be a better indicator of ambient climate, whereas channel deposits are records for frequency and magnitude of high-intensity precipitation events. Therefore, the existing facies models for variable-discharge rivers that consider only channel facies may not capture critical information needed to make accurate interpretations of paleoclimatic conditions. This study also adds to a growing body of evidence from geologic records of mid-latitude Paleogene river systems suggesting increases in the magnitude or variability of river discharge coinciding with established climate perturbations.

New Mexico↗

USGS2004

The world's largest floods, past and present: Their causes and magnitudes

Floods are among the most powerful forces on earth. Human societies worldwide have lived and died with floods from the very beginning, spawning a prominent role for floods within legends, religions, and history. Inspired by such accounts, geologists, hydrologists, and historians have studied the role of floods on humanity and its supporting ecosystems, resulting in new appreciation for the many-faceted role of floods in shaping our world. Part of this appreciation stems from ongoing analysis of long-term streamflow measurements, such as those recorded by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) streamflow gaging network. But the recognition of the important role of flooding in shaping our cultural and physical landscape also owes to increased understanding of the variety of mechanisms that cause floods and how the types and magnitudes of floods can vary with time and space. The USGS has contributed to this understanding through more than a century of diverse research activities on many aspects of floods, including their causes, effects, and hazards. This Circular summarizes a facet of this research by describing the causes and magnitudes of the world's largest floods, including those measured and described by modern methods in historic times, as well as floods of prehistoric times, for which the only records are those left by the floods themselves.

Circular↗

USGS1973

Species diversity: Patterns in modern and Miocene foraminifera of the eastern margin of North America

Patterns of foraminiferal species diversity were examined along the eastern margin of North America by utilizing the number of species, S, the information function, H(S), and species equitability, E. The 350 modern samples we studied extended from the Arctic to the Gulf of Mexico at depths ranging from a few meters to more than 5,000 m. In addition, 29 samples from Miocene strata of the Atlantic Coastal Plain and continental shelf were studied. Modern species diversity as measured by S and H(S) generally increases as depth increases and latitude decreases. Some notable exceptions occur, however, which are difficult to explain. For example, species diversity in the Arctic depth interval of 0 to 100 m is as high or higher than that found immediately south of Nova Scotia, in the Gulf of Maine, on Browns and Georges Banks, and even off the Gulf of Mexico deltas. At the moderate depth interval of 100 to 1,000 m, however, the entire margin north of Browns and Georges Banks has lower diversities than that to the south. The highest diversity by far in this depth interval occurs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the depth interval greater than 1,000 m, the more southern areas studied generally have a higher species diversity than the more northern Cape Cod to Maryland area. An exception to this is the northwestern Gulf of Mexico; this area is also an exception in that species diversity is significantly lower in the deeper waters than in the shallower waters in the same area. The measure of species equitability, E, showed no clear pattern with depth or latitude. This may be so because no simple pattern of species proportions exists or because the sampling was inadequate to measure it. Samples from the Miocene strata show a striking resemblance in species diversity to modern samples at similar depths and latitudes. Our observations indicate that species diversity and equitability have not increased during the last 15 × 10 6 yrs. The fossil and modern data indicate that each environment has its own carrying capacity and that this capacity is reached rather quickly. Although time and environmental stability are undoubtedly important in determining species diversity, as presently defined they are inadequate to explain all observed patterns. Long-term observations in various environments will be required to determine the relative importance of variables that affect species diversity.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS1959

Ground-water provinces of India

This paper gives a general resume of ground-water utilization and development and describes the occurrence of water in eight ground-water provinces of India. The paper is based in part on observations of the writer during 1951-55 and in part on earlier work of the Geological Survey of India. Ground water has been utilized extensively in India since before the beginning of the Christian era. Currently (1956) ground water is an important source of supply for domestic, stock, municipal, and industrial needs throughout the Republic and is widely used for irrigation in the Peninsular and Ganges-Brahmaputra regions west of longitude 85°. Dug, bored, and drilled wells are the principal means by which ground water is developed, although locally infiltration tunnels or improved springs are used. Methods of lifting or pumping water from wells include the hand line and bucket, the hand-lift pump, the counterpoised sweep, bullocks, and "mote," the water wheel, horizontal and vertical centrifugal pumps, and deep-well turbine pumps. The most common device for lifting water for irrigation is still the time-honored bullock and "mote" (leather bag). However, in modern India there is increasing use of mechanical pumps. With respect to the occurrence of ground water, India can be divided into eight provinces, lying in three major regions, (1) the Peninsular region, (2) the Ganges-Brahmaputra region, and (3) the Himalayan region. The Peninsular region contains six ground-water provinces. Precambrian igneous, metamorphic, and indurated sedimentary rocks and early Tertiary volcanic rocks in three of these provinces yield many small supplies of water, which generally is of good quality but locally is brackish or salty. Cretaceous water-bearing sandstones in another province are moderately productive and in places are developed for large water supplies. Late Tertiary and Quaternary water-bearing sands and gravels in two other provinces sustain many small water supplies and several large water supplies-particularly in the coastal areas of southern India. The Ganges-Brahmaputra region is a single ground-water province in which many tens of thousands of small water supplies and several thousand large supplies are obtained from water-bearing sands and gravels in late Tertiary and Quaternary alluvium. This province constitutes a vast groundwater reservoir, which is the most productive in India. The Himalayan region also is considered as a single province, in which ground water occurs in a series of narrow valleys filled with moderately to highly permeable Quaternary alluvium. These alluvial valleys transmit large quantities of water to the ground-water reservoir in the Ganges-Brahmaputra region.

Economic Geology↗

USGS1986

Depletion of 13C in Cretaceous marine organic matter: Source, diagenetic, or environmental sigal?

Geochemical studies of Cretaceous strata rich in organic carbon (OC) from Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) sites and several land sections reveal several consistent relationships among amount of OC, hydrocarbon generating potential of kerogen (measured by pyrolysis as the hydrogen index, HI), and the isotopic composition of the OC. First, there is a positive correlation between HI and OC in strata that contain more than about 1% OC. Second, percent OC and HI often are negatively correlated with carbon isotopic composition (σ 13 C) of kerogen. The relationship between HI and OC indicates that as the amount of organic matter increases, this organic matter tends to be more lipid rich reflecting the marine source of the organic matter. Cretaceous samples that contain predominantly marine organic matter tend to be isotopically lighter than those that contain predominantly terrestrial organic matter. Average σ 13 C values for organic matter from most Cretaceous sites are between −26 and −28‰, and values heavier than about −25‰ occur at very few sites. Most of the σ 13 C values of Miocene to Holocene OC-rich strata and modern marine plankton are between −16 to −23‰. Values of σ 13 C of modern terrestrial organic matter are mostly between −23 and −33‰. The depletion of terrestial OC in 13 C relative to marine planktonic OC is the basis for numerous statements in the literature that isotopically light Cretaceous organic matter is of terrestrial origin, even though other organic geochemical and(or) optical indicators show that the organic matter is mainly of marine origin. A difference of about 5‰ in σ 13 C between modern and Cretaceous OC-rich marine strata suggests either that Cretaceous marine planktonic organic matter had the same isotopic signature as modern marine plankton and that signature has been changed by diagenesis, or that OC derived from Cretaceous marine plankton was isotopically lighter by about 5‰ relative to modern plankton OC. Diagenesis does not produce a significant shift in σ 13 C in Miocene to Holocene sediments, and therefore probably did not produce the isotopically light Cretaceous OC. This means that Cretaceous marine plankton must have had σ 13 C values that were about 5‰ lighter than modern marine plankton, and at least several per mil lighter than Cretaceous terrestrial vegetation. The reason for these lighter values, however, is not obvious. It has been proposed that concentrations of CO 2 were higher during the middle Cretaceous, and this more available CO 2 may be responsible for the lighter σ 13 C values of Cretaceous marine organic matter.

Marine Geology↗

USGS2009

Dune mobility and aridity at the desert margin of northern China at a time of peak monsoon strength

Wind-blown sands were mobile at many sites along the desert margin in northern China during the early Holocene (11.5-8 ka ago), based on extensive new numerical dating. This mobility implies low effective moisture at the desert margin, in contrast to growing evidence for greater than modern monsoon precipitation at the same time in central and southern China. Dry conditions in the early Holocene at the desert margin can be explained through a dynamic link between enhanced diabatic heating in the core region of the strengthened monsoon and increased subsidence in drylands to the north, combined with high evapotranspiration rates due to high summer temperatures. After 8 ka ago, as the monsoon weakened and lower temperatures reduced evapotranspiration, eolian sands were stabilized by vegetation. Aridity and dune mobility at the desert margin and a strengthened monsoon can both be explained as responses to high summer insolation in the early Holocene. ?? 2009 Geological Society of America.

Geology↗

USGS1970

Green River oil shale—concept of origin extended: An interdisciplinary problem being attacked from both ends

A much fuller understanding of the Green River oil shale and its organic chemistry will emerge when the geologists, paleontologists, organic chemists, biologists, paleolimnologists, and biogeochemists, who are now working on it, integrate their findings with those of the others. We know from the geology, paleontology, and paleolimnology that the biologic progenitors of the organic substance in the Green River oil shale could only have been microscopic algae, and other micro-organisms, that grew and accumulated in the central parts of large, shallow lakes that existed under a subtropical climate. The only nonlacustrine organic components were wind-blown, or water borne, pollens and waxy spores. These, however, made up a large and important part of the organic-rich sediment. The geology of the Green River Formation shows that as the algal and pollen-rich sediment was buried deeper and deeper, progressively more of its pore water and dissolved constituents were expressed. Static pressures may have reached as much as 210 kg cm −2 , and the ambient temperature rose, with depth, to somewhere within the range between 90° and 125° C. Beneath the ancient lakes a tectonically quiescent environment persisted for tens of millions of years after their organic sediments had been deeply buried. The organic material of the Green River oil shale can be divided into three fractions—a small bitumen fraction that is extractable with common organic solvents, a major fraction called koerogen that consists of insoluble pyrobitumens, and a somewhat smaller inert fraction that is neither soluble nor does it yield oil on pyrolysis. As all three fractions originated in the same algal, pollen-rich sediment, an explanation for their marked differences must be sought in their geochemical history or from a study of the modern analogues of their progenitors. The components of the bitumen fraction consisted of “biological markers” that were inherited from the Eocene plants and animals in which they originally formed. Diagenesis has changed these hydrogen-rich compounds, but not enough to obscure their provenance. Kerogen presumably became insoluble because its hydrogen-rich components polymerized. My speculation is that the inert fraction was derived from a polyphenolic substance produced in the original algal ooze by “non-enzymatic browning.” Only three Classes of non-marine algae need be considered as progenitors of the Green River oil shale; the Xanthophyceae, the Chlorophyceae, and the Cyanophyceae. Only the Cyanophyceae (the blue-green algae) meet the biologic and paleontologic requirements to have served as the dominant precursors of the Green River oil shale. Several other oil shales clearly were derived from the Xanthophyceae, specifically Botryococcus. The blue-green algal ooze now forming, and accumulating, in Mud Lake, Florida, has been studied biologically and chemically as a possible present-day analogue of the Green River oil shale precursor. In this small lake we have established the fact that a bacterial inhibitor is produced, which inhibits decay of the algae and thereby permits the accumulation of energy-rich organic compounds. We infer that a similar indigenous inhibitor must have acted in the Eocene lakes to permit them to become the huge energy sinks they were. Studies of the organic chemistry of living blue-green algae show that they contain appreciable percentages of fatty acids, hydrocarbons, and very large percentages of proteins. These promising, energy-rich compounds could serve as source materials for potential conversion into oil shale in the geologic future. Certain marine anaerobic bacteria convert fatty acids into aliphatic hydrocarbons. Fresh-water obligate anaerobes should be investigated to see if they also convert fatty acids into hydrocarbons. The part played by aquatic animals that live in, or on, freshwater algal ooze in synthesizing hydrocarbons has not been investigated, but deserves attention. Pollen grains, of course, must be considered an important precursor of hydrocarbons produced on pyrolysis. They contain far higher percentages of long chain hydrocarbons and alcohols than most plant materials. The major problem ahead is to account for the progressive hydrogenation and subsequent polymerization of the relatively oxygen-rich constituents of algae such as the polysaccharides, amino acids, ammo sugars, and fatty acids into the insoluble pyrobitumens that constitute, particularly, the kerogen fraction of the Green River oil shale.

Wyoming↗

USGS1988

Satellite image atlas of glaciers of the world

U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1386, Satellite Image Atlas of Glaciers of the World, contains 11 chapters designated by the letters A through K. Chapter A provides a comprehensive, yet concise, review of the "State of the Earth's Cryosphere at the Beginning of the 21st Century: Glaciers, Global Snow Cover, Floating Ice, and Permafrost and Periglacial Environments," and a "Map/Poster of the Earth's Dynamic Cryosphere," and a set of eight "Supplemental Cryosphere Notes" about the Earth's Dynamic Cryosphere and the Earth System. The next 10 chapters, B through K, are arranged geographically and present glaciological information from Landsat and other sources of historic and modern data on each of the geographic areas. Chapter B covers Antarctica; Chapter C, Greenland; Chapter D, Iceland; Chapter E, Continental Europe (except for the European part of the former Soviet Union), including the Alps, the Pyrenees, Norway, Sweden, Svalbard (Norway), and Jan Mayen (Norway); Chapter F, Asia, including the European part of the former Soviet Union, China, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bhutan; Chapter G, Turkey, Iran, and Africa; Chapter H, Irian Jaya (Indonesia) and New Zealand; Chapter I, South America; Chapter J, North America (excluding Alaska); and Chapter K, Alaska. Chapters A–D each include map plates.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2017

A shifting rift—Geophysical insights into the evolution of Rio Grande rift margins and the Embudo transfer zone near Taos, New Mexico

We present a detailed example of how a subbasin develops adjacent to a transfer zone in the Rio Grande rift. The Embudo transfer zone in the Rio Grande rift is considered one of the classic examples and has been used as the inspiration for several theoretical models. Despite this attention, the history of its development into a major rift structure is poorly known along its northern extent near Taos, New Mexico. Geologic evidence for all but its young rift history is concealed under Quaternary cover. We focus on understanding the pre-Quaternary evidence that is in the subsurface by integrating diverse pieces of geologic and geophysical information. As a result, we present a substantively new understanding of the tectonic configuration and evolution of the northern extent of the Embudo fault and its adjacent subbasin. We integrate geophysical, borehole, and geologic information to interpret the subsurface configuration of the rift margins formed by the Embudo and Sangre de Cristo faults and the geometry of the subbasin within the Taos embayment. Key features interpreted include (1) an imperfect D-shaped subbasin that slopes to the east and southeast, with the deepest point ∼2 km below the valley floor located northwest of Taos at ∼36° 26′N latitude and 105° 37′W longitude; (2) a concealed Embudo fault system that extends as much as 7 km wider than is mapped at the surface, wherein fault strands disrupt or truncate flows of Pliocene Servilleta Basalt and step down into the subbasin with a minimum of 1.8 km of vertical displacement; and (3) a similar, wider than expected (5–7 km) zone of stepped, west-down normal faults associated with the Sangre de Cristo range front fault. From the geophysical interpretations and subsurface models, we infer relations between faulting and flows of Pliocene Servilleta Basalt and older, buried basaltic rocks that, combined with geologic mapping, suggest a revised rift history involving shifts in the locus of fault activity as the Taos subbasin developed. We speculate that faults related to north-striking grabens at the end of Laramide time formed the first west-down master faults. The Embudo fault may have initiated in early Miocene southwest of the Taos region. Normal-oblique slip on these early fault strands likely transitioned in space and time to dominantly left-lateral slip as the Embudo fault propagated to the northeast. During and shortly after eruption of Servilleta Basalt, proto-Embudo fault strands were active along and parallel to the modern, NE-aligned Rio Pueblo de Taos, ∼4–7 km basinward of the modern, mapped Embudo fault zone. Faults along the northeastern subbasin margin had northwest strikes for most of the period of subbasin formation and were located ∼5–7 km basinward of the modern Sangre de Cristo fault. The locus of fault activity shifted to more northerly striking faults within 2 km of the modern range front sometime after Servilleta volcanism had ceased. The northerly faults may have linked with the northeasterly proto-Embudo faults at this time, concurrent with the development of N-striking Los Cordovas normal faults within the interior of the subbasin. By middle Pleistocene(?) time, the Los Cordovas faults had become inactive, and the linked Embudo–Sangre de Cristo fault system migrated to the south, to the modern range front.

New Mexico↗

USGS1997

Stable isotope evidence for an atmospheric origin of desert nitrate deposits in northern Chile and southern California, U.S.A.

Natural surficial accumulations of nitrate-rich salts in the Atacama Desert, northern Chile, and in the Death Valley region of the Mojave Desert, southern California, are well known, but despite many geologic and geochemical studies, the origins of the nitrates have remained controversial. N and O isotopes in nitrate, and S isotopes in coexisting soluble sulfate, were measured to determine if some proposed N sources could be supported or rejected, and to determine if the isotopic signature of these natural deposits could be used to distinguish them from various types of anthropogenic nitrate contamination that might be found in desert groundwaters. High-grade calich-a-type nitrate deposits from both localities have δ 15 N values that range from −5 to +5‰, but are mostly near 0‰. Values of δ 15 N near 0‰ are consistent with either bulk atmospheric N deposition or microbial N fixation as major sources of the N in the deposits. δ 18 O values of those desert nitrates with δ 15 N near 0‰ range from about +31 to +50‰ (V-SMOW), significantly higher than that of atmospheric O 2 (+23.5‰). Such high values of δ 18 O are considered unlikely to result entirely from nitrification of reduced N, but rather resemble those of modern atmospheric nitrate in precipitation from some other localities. Assuming that limited modern atmospheric isotope data are applicable to the deposits, and allowing for nitrification of co-deposited ammonium, it is estimated that the fraction of the nitrate in the deposits that could be, accounted for isotopically by atmospheric N deposition may be at least 20% and possibly as much as 100%. δ 34 S values are less diagnostic but could also be consistent with atmospheric components in some of the soluble sulfates associated with the deposits. The stable isotope data support the hypothesis that some high-grade caliche-type nitrate-rich salt deposits in some of the Earth's hyperarid deserts represent long-term accumulations of atmospheric deposition (possibly in the order of 104 yr for the Death Valley region, 10 7 yr for the Atacama Desert) in the relative absence of soil leaching or biologic cycling. The combined N and O isotope signature of the nitrate in these deposits is significantly different from those of many other natural and anthropogenic sources of nitrate.

Chemical Geology↗

USGS2008

Geologic framework of the 2005 Keathley Canyon gas hydrate research well, northern Gulf of Mexico

The Keathley Canyon sites drilled in 2005 by the Chevron Joint Industry Project are located along the southeastern edge of an intraslope minibasin (Casey basin) in the northern Gulf of Mexico at 1335 m water depth. Around the drill sites, a grid of 2D high-resolution multichannel seismic data designed to image depths down to at least 1000 m sub-bottom reveals 7 unconformities and disconformities that, with the seafloor, bound 7 identifiable seismic stratigraphic units. A major disconformity in the middle of the units stands out for its angular baselapping geometry. From these data, three episodes of sedimentary deposition and deformation are inferred. The oldest episode consists of fine-grained muds deposited during a period of relative stability in the basin (units e, f, and g). Both the BSR and inferred gas hydrate occur within these older units. The gas hydrate occurs in near-vertical fractures. A second episode (units c and d) involved large vertical displacements associated with infilling and ponding of sediment. This second interval corresponds to deposition of intercalated fine and coarse-grained material that was recovered in the drill hole that penetrated the thin edges of the regionally much thicker units. The final episode of deposition (units a and b) occurred during more subdued vertical motions. Hemipelagic drape (unit a) characterizes the modern seafloor. The present-day Casey basin is mostly filled. Its sill is part of a subsiding graben structure that is only 10-20 m shallower than the deepest point in the basin, indicating that gravity-driven transport would mostly bypass the basin. Contemporary faulting along the basin margins has selectively reactivated an older group of faults. The intercalated sand and mud deposits of units c and d are tentatively correlated with Late Pleistocene deposition derived from the western shelf-edge delta/depocenter of the Mississippi River, which was probably most active from 320 ka to 70 ka [Winker, C.D., Booth, J., 2000. Sedimentary dynamics of the salt-dominated continental slope, Gulf of Mexico: integration of observations from the seafloor, near-surface, and deep subsurface. In: Proceedings of the GCSSEPM Foundation 20th Annual Research Conference, Deep-water Reservoirs of the World, pp. 1059-1086]. The presence of sand within the gas hydrate stability zone (in units c and d) is not sufficient to concentrate gas hydrate even though dispersed gas hydrate occurs deeper in the fractured mud/clay-rich sections of units e and f.

Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS2014

Earthquake intensity distributions: a new view

Pioneering work by Nicolas Ambraseys and many collaborators demonstrates both the tremendous value of macroseismic data and the perils of its uncritical assessment. In numerous publications he shows that neglect of original sources and/or failure to appreciate the context of historical accounts, as well as use of unreliable indicators such as landslid- ing to determine intensities, commonly leads to inflated magnitude estimates for historical earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system, which now collects and systematically interprets thousands of first-hand reports from felt earthquakes, provides the opportunity to explore further the biases associated with traditional intensity distributions determined from written (media or archival) accounts. I briefly summarize and further develop the results of Hough (2013), who shows that traditional intensity distrib- utions imply more dramatic damage patterns than are documented by more spatially rich DYFI data, even when intensities are assigned according to the conservative practices estab- lished by Ambraseys’ work. I further consider the separate intensity–attenuation relations that have been developed to characterize intensities for historical and modern earthquakes in California, using traditionally assigned intensities and DYFI intensities, respectively. The results support the conclusion that traditionally assigned intensity values tend to be inflated by a fundamental bias towards reporting of dramatic rather than representative effects. I introduce an empirical correction-factor approach to correct for these biases. This allows the growing wealth of well-calibrated DYFI data to be used as calibration events in the analysis of historical earthquakes

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering↗

USGS1997

The Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) grid

The most convenient way to identify points on the curved surface of the Earth is with a system of reference lines called parallels of latitude and meridians of longitude. On some maps the meridians and parallels appear as straight lines. On most modern maps, however, the meridians and parallels may appear as curved lines. These differences are due to the mathematical treatment required to portray a curved surface on a flat surface so that important properties of the map (such as distance and areal accuracy) are shown with minimum distortion. The system used to portray a portion of the round Earth on a flat surface is called a map projection.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2024

On the provenance of field reports of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake: A seismo-historical whodunnit

Much of what is known about the effects of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake throughout the epicentral region can be attributed to meticulous field investigations by an individual with training in geology and engineering, Earle Sloan ( Clendenin, 1926 ). In a recent study, Bilham and Hough (2024) undertook a detailed analysis of the effects of the earthquake on railroads in the Charleston region, drawing heavily from Sloan’s reports. This exercise identified several inconsistencies in Sloan’s field reports, including understandable measurement imprecision, inferred data entry mistakes, and transcription errors. The study also begged the question, where was Sloan at the time of the mainshock and over the following week? And to what extent did he draw from secondhand information in compiling his reports? On this question Sloan’s reports were sometimes enigmatic, lending themselves to misinterpretation in contemporaneous as well as modern interpretations. Beyond the details that were germane for, and briefly summarized by, the studies of Bilham and Hough (2023 , 2024) , in this report we don our historical seismologist caps to chronicle Sloan’s activities following the earthquake. We summarize our inferences here for the benefit of future scholars who might attempt to retrace either Sloan’s footsteps or our own. This study also serves to highlight Sloan’s singular contributions to earthquake science, which were never published separately.

South Carolina↗

USGS2010

Marine benthic habitat mapping of Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska, with an evaluation of the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard III

Seafloor geology and potential benthic habitats were mapped in Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska, using multibeam sonar, ground-truth information, and geological interpretations. Muir Inlet is a recently deglaciated fjord that is under the influence of glacial and paraglacial marine processes. High glacially derived sediment and meltwater fluxes, slope instabilities, and variable bathymetry result in a highly dynamic estuarine environment and benthic ecosystem. We characterize the fjord seafloor and potential benthic habitats using the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) recently developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NatureServe. Substrates within Muir Inlet are dominated by mud, derived from the high glacial debris flux. Water-column characteristics are derived from a combination of conductivity temperature depth (CTD) measurements and circulation-model results. We also present modern glaciomarine sediment accumulation data from quantitative differential bathymetry. These data show Muir Inlet is divided into two contrasting environments: a dynamic upper fjord and a relatively static lower fjord. The accompanying maps represent the first publicly available high-resolution bathymetric surveys of Muir Inlet. The results of these analyses serve as a test of the CMECS and as a baseline for continued mapping and correlations among seafloor substrate, benthic habitats, and glaciomarine processes.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2018

Crustal structure and quaternary acceleration of deformation rates in central Washington revealed by stream profile inversion, potential field geophysics, and structural geology of the Yakima folds

Post‐Miocene tectonic uplift along fault‐cored anticlines within central Washington produced the Yakima Fold Province, a region of active NNE‐SSW shortening in the Cascadian backarc. The relative timing and rate of deformation along individual structures is coarsely defined yet imperative for seismic hazard assessment. In this work, we use geomorphic and geophysical mapping, stream profile inversion, and balanced cross‐section methods to constrain fault geometries and slip rates in the Yakima Canyon region. We extract stream profiles from LiDAR data and analytically solve for the rate of relative rock uplift along several active fault‐cored anticlines. To constrain the fault geometries at depth and the long‐term magnitude of deformation, we constructed two line‐balanced cross sections across the folds with forward‐modeled magnetic and gravity anomaly data. Our stream profile results indicate an increase of incision rates in the Pleistocene, and we infer the increase is tectonically controlled. We estimate modern slip rates between 0.4 and 0.6 mm/year accommodated on reverse faults that core the Manastash Ridge, Umtanum Ridge, and Selah Butte anticlines and establish that these faults reactivate and invert older normal faults in basement rocks. Finally, we calculate the time required to accumulate sufficient strain energy for a large magnitude earthquake (M ≥ 7) along individual structures in the Yakima Fold Province. Results show that the Yakima folds likely accommodate large magnitude earthquakes and that it takes several hundred to several thousand years to accumulate sufficient strain energy for an M ≥ 7 earthquake.

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