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Land use and habitat conditions across the southwestern Wyoming sagebrush steppe: development impacts, management effectiveness and the distribution of invasive plants

For the past several years, USGS has taken a multi-faceted approach to investigating the condition and trends in sagebrush steppe ecosystems. This recent effort builds upon decades of work in semi-arid ecosystems providing a specific, applied focus on the cumulative impacts of expanding human activities across these landscapes. Here, we discuss several on-going projects contributing to these efforts: (1) mapping and monitoring the distribution and condition of shrub steppe communities with local detail at a regional scale, (2) assessing the relationships between specific, land-use features (for example, roads, transmission lines, industrial pads) and invasive plants, including their potential (environmentally defined) distribution across the region, and (3) monitoring the effects of habitat treatments on the ecosystem, including wildlife use and invasive plant abundance. This research is focused on the northern sagebrush steppe, primarily in Wyoming, but also extending into Montana, Colorado, Utah and Idaho. The study area includes a range of sagebrush types (including, Artemisia tridentata ssp. tridentata, Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis, Artemisia tridentata ssp. vaseyana, Artemisia nova) and other semi-arid shrubland types (for example, Sarcobatus vermiculatus, Atriplex confertifolia, Atriplex gardneri), impacted by extensive interface between steppe ecosystems and industrial energy activities resulting in a revealing multiple-variable analysis. We use a combination of remote sensing (AWiFS (1 Any reference to platforms, data sources, equipment, software, patented or trade-marked methods is for information purposes only. It does not represent endorsement of the U.S.D.I., U.S.G.S. or the authors), Landsat and Quickbird platforms), Geographic Information System (GIS) design and data management, and field-based, replicated sampling to generate multiple scales of data representing the distribution of shrub communities for the habitat inventory. Invasive plant sampling focused on the interaction between human infrastructure and weedy plant distributions in southwestern Wyoming, while also capturing spatial variability associated with growing conditions and management across the region. In a separate but linked study, we also sampled native and invasive composition of recent and historic habitat treatments. Here, we summarize findings of this ongoing work, highlighting patterns and relationships between vegetation (native and invasive), land cover, landform, and land-use patterns in the sagebrush steppe.

Wyoming↗

Perspectives on transportable array Alaska background noise levels

Background seismic noise fundamentally sets a lower bound on our ability to record signals arising from earthquakes. The background noise spectrum at a station is a combination of cultural noise, ocean-generated microseism noise, intrinsic instrument self-noise, and the sensitivity of the instrument to nonseismic noise sources. The USArray-Transportable Array Alaska deployed 195 stations across Alaska and parts of Canada (Yukon, British Columbia, and Northwest Territories). These stations were all installed using similar techniques and made use of instruments with similar self-noise levels. As such, this network provides an opportunity to look at how geographic location influences seismic background. Using these broadband stations, we report background noise levels from 0.2 to 75 s period in six discrete bands. By constructing “noise maps,” we depict both spatial and temporal changes in the background noise field. Using these maps, combined with targeted analysis, we infer sources and contributing factors to noise levels in these different period bands. These include cultural noise, the formation of sea ice, seasonal changes in permafrost and wave activity in the Gulf of Alaska, and magnetic field variability. We use this study as an opportunity to review several previous studies examining seismic noise in Arctic regions.

Book chapter↗

Assessing models of speciation under different biogeographic scenarios; An empirical study using multi-locus and RNA-seq analyses

Evolutionary biology often seeks to decipher the drivers of speciation, and much debate persists over the relative importance of isolation and gene flow in the formation of new species. Genetic studies of closely related species can assess if gene flow was present during speciation, because signatures of past introgression often persist in the genome. We test hypotheses on which mechanisms of speciation drove diversity among three distinct lineages of desert tortoise in the genus Gopherus . These lineages offer a powerful system to study speciation, because different biogeographic patterns (physical vs. ecological segregation) are observed at opposing ends of their distributions. We use 82 samples collected from 38 sites, representing the entire species' distribution and generate sequence data for mtDNA and four nuclear loci. A multilocus phylogenetic analysis in *BEAST estimates the species tree. RNA‐seq data yield 20,126 synonymous variants from 7665 contigs from two individuals of each of the three lineages. Analyses of these data using the demographic inference package ∂a∂i serve to test the null hypothesis of no gene flow during divergence. The best‐fit demographic model for the three taxa is concordant with the *BEAST species tree, and the ∂a∂i analysis does not indicate gene flow among any of the three lineages during their divergence. These analyses suggest that divergence among the lineages occurred in the absence of gene flow and in this scenario the genetic signature of ecological isolation (parapatric model) cannot be differentiated from geographic isolation (allopatric model).

Ecology and Evolution↗

A novel automatic phenology learning (APL) method of training sample selection using multiple datasets for time-series land cover mapping

The long record of Landsat imagery, which is the cornerstone of Earth observation, provides an opportunity to monitor land use and land cover (LULC) change and understand the interactions between the climate and earth system through time. A few change detection algorithms such as Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) have been developed to utilize all available Landsat images for change detection and characterization at local or global scales. However, the reliable, rapid, and reproducible collection of training samples have become a challenge for time series land cover classification at a large scale. To meet the challenge, we proposed an automatic phenology learning (APL) method with the assumption that the temporal profiles of samples within the same land cover type are the same or similar at a local scale to generate evenly distributed training samples automatically. We designed the method to build land cover patterns for each category based on consensus samples derived from multiple existing scientific datasets including LANDFIRE's (LF) Existing Vegetation Type (EVT), USGS National Land Cover Database (NLCD), National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and National Wetlands Inventory (NWI). Then we calculated the Time-Weighted Dynamic Time Warping (twDTW) distance between any undefined samples and land cover patterns in the same geographical region as prior knowledge. Finally, we selected the optimal land cover category for each undefined sample from the land cover products based on the designed criteria iteratively using the twDTW distance as an indicator. The method was applied in the footprint of 10 selected Landsat Analysis Ready Data (ARD) tiles in the eastern and western conterminous United States (CONUS) to produce annual land cover maps from 1985 to 2017. The accuracy assessment and visual comparison revealed that the APL method can generate reliable training samples without any manual interpretation, producing better land cover results especially for the grass/shrub and wetland land cover classes. Applying the APL method, the overall accuracy of the annual land cover maps was improved by 2% over the accuracy of Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) Collection 1.0 Science Products in the research regions. Our results also indicate that the APL method provides an approach for best use of different land cover products and meets the requirement of intensive sampling for training data collection.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

A habitat assessment for Florida panther population expansion into central Florida

One of the goals of the Florida panther ( Puma concolor coryi ) recovery plan is to expand panther range north of the Caloosahatchee River in central Florida. Our objective was to evaluate the potential of that region to support panthers. We used a geographic information system and the Mahalanobis distance statistic to develop a habitat model based on landscape characteristics associated with panther home ranges. We used cross-validation and an independent telemetry data set to test the habitat model. We also conducted a least-cost path analysis to identify potential habitat linkages and to provide a relative measure of connectivity among habitat patches. Variables in our model were paved road density, major highways, human population density, percentage of the area permanently or semipermanently flooded, and percentage of the area in natural land cover. Our model clearly identified habitat typical of that found within panther home ranges based on model testing with recent telemetry data. We identified 4 potential translocation sites that may support a total of approximately 36 panthers. Although we identified potential habitat linkages, our least-cost path analyses highlighted the extreme isolation of panther habitat in portions of the study area. Human intervention will likely be required if the goal is to establish female panthers north of the Caloosahatchee in the near term.

Florida↗

Developing a framework for evaluating tallgrass prairie reconstruction methods and management

The thousands of hectares of prairie reconstructed each year in the tallgrass prairie biome can provide a valuable resource for evaluation of seed mixes, planting methods, and post-planting management if methods used and resulting characteristics of the prairies are recorded and compiled in a publicly accessible database. The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of such data to understand the outcomes of reconstructions over a 10-year period at two U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service refuges. Variables included number of species planted, seed source (combine-harvest or combine-harvest plus hand-collected), fire history, and planting method and season. In 2015 we surveyed vegetation on 81 reconstructions and calculated proportion of planted species observed; introduced species richness; native species richness, evenness and diversity; and mean coefficient of conservatism. We conducted exploratory analyses to learn how implied communities based on seed mix compared with observed vegetation; which seeding or management variables were influential in the outcome of the reconstructions; and consistency of responses between the two refuges. Insights from this analysis include: 1) proportion of planted species observed in 2015 declined as planted richness increased, but lack of data on seeding rate per species limited conclusions about value of added species; 2) differing responses to seeding and management between the two refuges suggest the importance of geographic variability that could be addressed using a public database; and 3) variables such as fire history are difficult to quantify consistently and should be carefully evaluated in the context of a public data repository.

Ecological Restoration↗

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and harmonic mean flows for streams in Iowa

A statewide study was conducted to develop regression equations for estimating six selected low-flow frequency statistics and harmonic mean flows for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The estimation equations developed for the six low-flow frequency statistics include: the annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day mean low flows for a recurrence interval of 10 years, the annual 30-day mean low flow for a recurrence interval of 5 years, and the seasonal (October 1 through December 31) 1- and 7-day mean low flows for a recurrence interval of 10 years. Estimation equations also were developed for the harmonic-mean-flow statistic. Estimates of these seven selected statistics are provided for 208 U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamgages using data through September 30, 2006. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State's borders. Because trend analyses indicated statistically significant positive trends when considering the entire period of record for the majority of the streamgages, the longest, most recent period of record without a significant trend was determined for each streamgage for use in the study. The median number of years of record used to compute each of these seven selected statistics was 35. Geographic information system software was used to measure 54 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Following the removal of two streamgages from the initial data set, data collected for 206 streamgages were compiled to investigate three approaches for regionalization of the seven selected statistics. Regionalization, a process using statistical regression analysis, provides a relation for efficiently transferring information from a group of streamgages in a region to ungaged sites in the region. The three regionalization approaches tested included statewide, regional, and region-of-influence regressions. For the regional regression, the study area was divided into three low-flow regions on the basis of hydrologic characteristics, landform regions, and soil regions. A comparison of root mean square errors and average standard errors of prediction for the statewide, regional, and region-of-influence regressions determined that the regional regression provided the best estimates of the seven selected statistics at ungaged sites in Iowa. Because a significant number of streams in Iowa reach zero flow as their minimum flow during low-flow years, four different types of regression analyses were used: left-censored, logistic, generalized-least-squares, and weighted-least-squares regression. A total of 192 streamgages were included in the development of 27 regression equations for the three low-flow regions. For the northeast and northwest regions, a censoring threshold was used to develop 12 left-censored regression equations to estimate the 6 low-flow frequency statistics for each region. For the southern region a total of 12 regression equations were developed; 6 logistic regression equations were developed to estimate the probability of zero flow for the 6 low-flow frequency statistics and 6 generalized least-squares regression equations were developed to estimate the 6 low-flow frequency statistics, if nonzero flow is estimated first by use of the logistic equations. A weighted-least-squares regression equation was developed for each region to estimate the harmonic-mean-flow statistic. Average standard errors of estimate for the left-censored equations for the northeast region range from 64.7 to 88.1 percent and for the northwest region range from 85.8 to 111.8 percent. Misclassification percentages for the logistic equations for the southern region range from 5.6 to 14.0 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for generalized least-squares equations for the southern region range from 71.7 to 98.9 percent and pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized-least-squares equations range from 87.7 to 91.8 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for weighted-least-squares equations developed for estimating the harmonic-mean-flow statistic for each of the three regions range from 66.4 to 80.4 percent. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites in Iowa with low flows not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, or urbanization and with basin characteristics within the range of those used to develop the equations. If the equations are used at ungaged sites on regulated streams, or on streams affected by water-supply and agricultural withdrawals, then the estimates will need to be adjusted by the amount of regulation or withdrawal to estimate the actual flow conditions if that is of interest. Caution is advised when applying the equations for basins with characteristics near the applicable limits of the equations and for basins located in karst topography. A test of two drainage-area ratio methods using 31 pairs of streamgages, for the annual 7-day mean low-flow statistic for a recurrence interval of 10 years, indicates a weighted drainage-area ratio method provides better estimates than regional regression equations for an ungaged site on a gaged stream in Iowa when the drainage-area ratio is between 0.5 and 1.4. These regression equations will be implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web-based geographic-information-system tool. StreamStats allows users to click on any ungaged site on a river and compute estimates of the seven selected statistics; in addition, 90-percent prediction intervals and the measured basin characteristics for the ungaged sites also are provided. StreamStats also allows users to click on any streamgage in Iowa and estimates computed for these seven selected statistics are provided for the streamgage.

Iowa↗

Factors influencing riverine fish assemblages in Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, and the Massachusetts Department of Fish and Game, conducted an investigation of fish assemblages in small- to medium-sized Massachusetts streams. The objective of this study was to determine relations between fish-assemblage characteristics and anthropogenic factors, including impervious cover and estimated flow alteration, relative to the effects of environmental factors, including physical-basin characteristics and land use. The results of this investigation supersede those of a preliminary analysis published in 2010. Fish data were obtained for 669 fish-sampling sites from the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife fish-community database. A review of the literature was used to select fish metrics - species richness, abundance of individual species, and abundances of species grouped on life history traits - responsive to flow alteration. The contributing areas to the fish-sampling sites were delineated and used with a geographic information system to determine a set of environmental and anthropogenic factors that were tested for use as explanatory variables in regression models. Reported and estimated withdrawals and return flows were used together with simulated unaltered streamflows to estimate altered streamflows and indicators of flow alteration for each fish-sampling site. Altered streamflows and indicators of flow alteration were calculated on the basis of methods developed in a previous U.S. Geological Survey study in which unaltered daily streamflows were simulated for a 44-year period (water years 1961-2004), and streamflow alterations were estimated by use of water-withdrawal and wastewater-return data previously reported to the State for the 2000-04 period and estimated domestic-well withdrawals and septic-system discharges. A variable selection process, conducted using principal components analysis and Spearman rank correlation, was used to select a set of 15 non-redundant environmental and anthropogenic factors to test for use as explanatory variables in the regression analyses. Twenty-one fish species were used in a multivariate analysis of fish-assemblage patterns. Results of nonmetric multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to group fish species into fluvial and macrohabitat generalist habitat-use classes. Two analytical techniques, quantile regression and generalized linear modeling, were applied to characterize the association between fish-response variables and environmental and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Quantile regression demonstrated that as percent impervious cover and an indicator of percent alteration of August median flow from groundwater withdrawals increase, the relative abundance and species richness of fluvial fish decrease. The quantile regression plots indicate that (1) as many as seven fluvial fish species are expected in streams with little flow alteration or impervious cover, (2) no more than four fluvial fish species are expected in streams where flow alterations from groundwater withdrawals exceed 50 percent of the August median flow or the percent area of impervious cover exceeds 15 percent, and (3) few fluvial fish remain at high rates of withdrawal (approaching 100 percent) or high rates of impervious cover (between 25 and 30 percent). Three generalized linear models (GLMs) were developed to quantify the response of fluvial fish to multiple environmental and anthropogenic variables. All variables in the GLM equations were demonstrated to be significant (p less than 0.05, with most less than 0.01). Variables in the fluvial-fish relative-abundance model were channel slope, estimated percent alteration of August median flow from groundwater withdrawals, percent wetland in a 240-meter buffer strip, and percent impervious cover. Variables in the fluvial-fish species-richness model were drainage area, channel slope, total undammed reach length, percent wetland in a 240-meter buffer strip, and percent impervious cover. Variables in the brook trout relativeabundance model were drainage area, percent open water, and percent impervious cover. The variability explained by the GLM models, as measured by the pseudo R2, ranged from 18.2 to 34.6, and correlations between observed and predicted values ranged from 0.50 to 0.60. Results of GLM models indicated that, keeping all other variables the same, a one-unit (1 percent) increase in the percent depletion of August median flow would result in a 0.9-percent decrease in the relative abundance (in counts per hour) of fluvial fish. The results of GLM models also indicated that a unit increase in impervious cover (1 percent) resulted in a 3.7-percent decrease in the relative abundance of fluvial fish, a 5.4-percent decrease in fluvial-fish species richness, and an 8.7-percent decrease in brook trout relative abundance.

Massachusetts↗

Methods for estimating flow-duration curve and low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged locations on small streams in Minnesota

Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of low flows in streams, which are flows in a stream during prolonged dry weather, is fundamental for water-supply planning and design; waste-load allocation; reservoir storage design; and maintenance of water quality and quantity for irrigation, recreation, and wildlife conservation. This report presents the results of a statewide study for which regional regression equations were developed for estimating 13 flow-duration curve statistics and 10 low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged stream locations in Minnesota. The 13 flow-duration curve statistics estimated by regression equations include the 0.0001, 0.001, 0.02, 0.05, 0.1, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99, 0.999, and 0.9999 exceedance-probability quantiles. The low-flow frequency statistics include annual and seasonal (spring, summer, fall, winter) 7-day mean low flows, seasonal 30-day mean low flows, and summer 122-day mean low flows for a recurrence interval of 10 years. Estimates of the 13 flow-duration curve statistics and the 10 low-flow frequency statistics are provided for 196 U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamgages using streamflow data collected through September 30, 2012. The study area includes 196 streamgages located within Minnesota and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders in North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The study area was divided into five regions that were developed in a previous study using the concept of hydrologic landscape units. Geographic information system software was used to calculate 18 characteristics investigated as potential explanatory variables in regression analyses for each streamgage drainage basin. Trend analyses indicated statistically significant trends in summer 7-day low flows that were not related to precipitation patterns for 19 streamgages. For 16 of these streamgages, the streamflow record was subset using structural change analysis to identify the most recent period of record without a significant trend. The three remaining streamgages with significant trends were excluded from the final analysis because the effective period of record without a significant trend was less than 10 years. Because several streams in this study have zero flow as their minimum reported flow, weighted left-censored regression was used to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on the number of years of record. A total of 115 regression equations were developed in this study to calculate flow-duration curve and low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged locations in the study area. In addition, data from 25 pairs of streamgages were used to develop drainage-area ratio equations that can be used to estimate streamflow statistics at ungaged locations on streams that have a streamgage in another location. Streamflow statistics estimated using regional regression and drainage-area ratio equations were compared among regions. For regions A, D, and E, drainagearea ratio equations were more accurate than regional regression equations for flows, but regional regression equations were more accurate for high flows. For region F, regional regression equations were consistently more accurate than drainage-area ratio equations. For region BC, the pattern in accuracies of regional regression and drainage-area ratio equations between low flows and high flows was not consistent. Equations developed in this study apply only to stream locations where flows are not substantially affected by regulation, diversion, or urbanization. All equations presented in this study will be incorporated into StreamStats, a web-based geographic information system tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. StreamStats allows users to obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected locations on streams through an interactive map.

Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisco↗

Patterning emergent marsh vegetation assemblages in coastal Louisiana, USA, with unsupervised artificial neural networks

Question Are self‐organizing maps (SOMs) useful for patterning coastal wetland vegetation communities? Do SOMs provide robust alternatives to traditional classification methods, particularly when underlying species response functions are unknown or difficult to approximate, or when a need exists to continuously classify new samples obtained under ongoing long‐term ecosystem monitoring programs as they become available?. Location Coastal Louisiana, USA. Methods A SOM was trained from in situ observations of 559 vegetation species relative cover data from 2526 samples collected over eight years at 343 locations across coastal Louisiana. Hierarchical cluster analysis was applied to the SOM output to delineate vegetation community types, and indicator species analysis was conducted. Salinity and flood duration were compared across the delineated community types. Results The SOM patterned the 2526 training samples into 260 output neurons, which were further clustered into eleven community types. Clear gradients in salinity and flood duration existed among the community types, and geographic zonation of the communities was evident across the landscape. At some locations assemblages were temporally stable; at other locations they varied considerably. Samples not used in training the network were effectively projected onto the SOM and assigned to one of the delineated community types. Conclusions The SOM was effective in delineating plant communities in the region that were qualitatively similar to those obtained in previous investigations. Being robust to skewed distributions and the presence of outliers, SOMs provide an alternative to traditional distribution‐based statistical approaches. Their ability to efficiently classify new data into existing community types makes their use an ideal approach to classifying samples obtained from ongoing, long‐term ecological monitoring programs.

Louisiana↗

Geomorphic determinants of species composition of alpine tundra, Glacier National Park, U.S.A.

Because the distribution of alpine tundra is associated with spatially limited cold climates, global warming may threaten its local extent or existence. This notion has been challenged, however, based on observations of the diversity of alpine tundra in small areas primarily due to topographic variation. The importance of diversity in temperature or moisture conditions caused by topographic variation is an open question, and we extend this to geomorphology more generally. The extent to which geomorphic variation per se , based on relatively easily assessed indicators, can account for the variation in alpine tundra community composition is analyzed versus the inclusion of broad indicators of regional climate variation. Visual assessments of topography are quantified and reduced using principal components analysis (PCA). Observations of species cover are reduced using detrended correspondence analysis (DCA). A “best subsets” regression approach using the Akaike Information Criterion for selection of variables is compared to a simple stepwise regression with DCA scores as the dependent variable and scores on significant PCA axes plus more direct measures of topography as independent variables. Models with geographic coordinates (representing regional climate gradients) excluded explain almost as much variation in community composition as models with them included, although they are important contributors to the latter. The geomorphic variables in the model are those associated with local moisture differences such as snowbeds. The potential local variability of alpine tundra can be a buffer against climate change, but change in precipitation may be as important as change in temperature.

Montana↗

Wildfire and aspect effects on hydrologic states after the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire

Wildfire can change how soils take in, store, and release water. This study examined differences in how burned and unburned plots on north versus south-facing slope aspects respond to rainfall. The largest wildfire impacts were litter/duff combustion on burned north-facing slopes versus soil-water retention reduction on burned south-facing slopes. Wildfire is one of the most significant disturbances in mountainous landscapes, affecting water supply and ecologic function and setting the stage for natural hazards such as flash floods. The impacts of wildfire can affect the entire hydrologic cycle. Measurements of soil-water content and matric potential in the near surface (top 30 cm) captured the hydrologic state in both burned and unburned hillslopes during the first spring through fall period (1 June–1 Oct. 2011) after the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire near Boulder, CO. This time span included different hydrologic periods characterized by cyclonic frontal storms (low-intensity, long duration), convective storms (high-intensity, short duration), and dry periods. In mountainous environments, aspect can also control hydrologic states, so north- vs. south-facing slopes were compared. Wildfire tended to homogenize soil-water contents across aspects and with depth in the soil, yet it also may have introduced an aspect control on matric potential that was not observed in unburned soils. Post-wildfire changes in hydrologic state were observed in south-facing soils, probably reflecting decreased soil-water retention after wildfire. North-facing soils were impacted the most, in terms of hydrologic state, by the loss of water storage in the combusted litter–duff layer and forest canopy, which had provided a large “hydrologic buffering” capacity when unburned. Unsaturated zone measurements showed increased variability in hydrologic states and more rapid state transitions in wildfire-impacted soils. A simple, qualitative analysis suggested that the range of unsaturated-zone processes along the gravity–capillarity–adsorption continuum was expanded by wildfire for a given soil. The small number of experimental plots in this study suggests that further work is needed before these conclusions can be generalized to other geographic areas.

Vadose Zone Journal↗

Synoptic analysis of a decade of daily measurements of SO2 emission in the troposphere from volcanoes of the global ground-based Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change

Volcanic plumes are common and far-reaching manifestations of volcanic activity during and between eruptions. Observations of the rate of emission and composition of volcanic plumes are essential to recognize and, in some cases, predict the state of volcanic activity. Measurements of the size and location of the plumes are important to assess the impact of the emission from sporadic or localized events to persistent or widespread processes of climatic and environmental importance. These observations provide information on volatile budgets on Earth, chemical evolution of magmas, and atmospheric circulation and dynamics. Space-based observations during the last decades have given us a global view of Earth's volcanic emission, particularly of sulfur dioxide ( SO 2 ). Although none of the satellite missions were intended to be used for measurement of volcanic gas emission, specially adapted algorithms have produced time-averaged global emission budgets. These have confirmed that tropospheric plumes, produced from persistent degassing of weak sources, dominate the total emission of volcanic SO 2 . Although space-based observations have provided this global insight into some aspects of Earth's volcanism, it still has important limitations. The magnitude and short-term variability of lower-atmosphere emissions, historically less accessible from space, remain largely uncertain. Operational monitoring of volcanic plumes, at scales relevant for adequate surveillance, has been facilitated through the use of ground-based scanning differential optical absorption spectrometer (ScanDOAS) instruments since the beginning of this century, largely due to the coordinated effort of the Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change (NOVAC). In this study, we present a compilation of results of homogenized post-analysis of measurements of SO 2 flux and plume parameters obtained during the period March 2005 to January 2017 of 32 volcanoes in NOVAC. This inventory opens a window into the short-term emission patterns of a diverse set of volcanoes in terms of magma composition, geographical location, magnitude of emission, and style of eruptive activity. We find that passive volcanic degassing is by no means a stationary process in time and that large sub-daily variability is observed in the flux of volcanic gases, which has implications for emission budgets produced using short-term, sporadic observations. The use of a standard evaluation method allows for intercomparison between different volcanoes and between ground- and space-based measurements of the same volcanoes. The emission of several weakly degassing volcanoes, undetected by satellites, is presented for the first time. We also compare our results with those reported in the literature, providing ranges of variability in emission not accessible in the past. The open-access data repository introduced in this article will enable further exploitation of this unique dataset, with a focus on volcanological research, risk assessment, satellite-sensor validation, and improved quantification of the prevalent tropospheric component of global volcanic emission.

Earth System Science Data↗

Estimating black bear population density and genetic diversity at Tensas River, Louisiana using microsatellite DNA markers

The Recovery Plan for the federally threatened Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus ) mandates that remnant populations be estimated and monitored. In 1999 we obtained genetic material with barbed-wire hair traps to estimate bear population size and genetic diversity at the 329-km 2 Tensas River Tract, Louisiana. We constructed and monitored 122 hair traps, which produced 1,939 hair samples. Of those, we randomly selected 116 subsamples for genetic analysis and used up to 12 microsatellite DNA markers to obtain multilocus genotypes for 58 individuals. We used Program CAPTURE to compute estimates of population size using multiple mark-recapture models. The area of study was almost entirely circumscribed by agricultural land, thus the population was geographically closed. Also, study-area boundaries were biologically discreet, enabling us to accurately estimate population density. Using model Chao M h to account for possible effects of individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, we estimated the population size to be 119 (SE=29.4) bears, or 0.36 bears/km 2 . We were forced to examine a substantial number of loci to differentiate between some individuals because of low genetic variation. Despite the probable introduction of genes from Minnesota bears in the 1960s, the isolated population at Tensas exhibited characteristics consistent with inbreeding and genetic drift. Consequently, the effective population size at Tensas may be as few as 32, which warrants continued monitoring or possibly genetic augmentation.

Louisiana↗

Gopherus agassizii : Desert tortoise

The desert tortoise is one of four allopatric North American tortoises. It occurs in the Mojave and Sonoran deserts of the southwestern United States and Mexico. Auffenberg (1976) divided the genus Gopherus (consisting of four species, G. agassizi , G. berlandieri , G.flavomarginatus , and G. polyphemus ) in two osteological groups. Bramble (1982), using morphological and palaeontological data, divided the genus Gopherus into two separate complexes, each with two species. He established a new genus, Scaptochelys , for agassizi and berlandieri , retaining Gopherus for polyphemus and flavomarginatus . Bour and Dubois (1984) noted that Xerobates Agassiz had priority over Scaptochelys Bramble. Using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), Lamb et al. (1989) evaluated the evolutionary relationships of the North American tortoises, particularly the desert tortoise. They concluded that the mtDNA analysis provides strong support for generic recognition of the two distinct species groups described by Bramble (1982). Until a few decades ago, the desert tortoise was widespread at lower elevations throughout the Mojave and Sonoran deserts of the U.S.A. In the northern and western parts of the geographic range, large and relatively homogeneous populations with densities exceeding 1,000/sq km extended throughout parts of California, and probably into Nevada and Utah. In terms of biomass, the tortoise played an important role in the ecosystems. In most areas, numbers have declined dramatically and the extent of populations has been reduced. Most populations are now isolated and low in numbers. Conservation of the desert tortoise is a highly visible and political issue in the U.S.A., but not in Mexico.

Book chapter↗

Precipitation areal-reduction factor estimation using an annual-maxima centered approach

The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed 'annual-maxima centered,' specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed 'annual-maxima centered,' specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [ Aythya affinis ] and greater scaup [ A. marila ] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

North America↗

Who needs closure? Estimating abundance with a Markovian availability model for geographically open removal sampling

Removal sampling is an important method for estimating abundance, but nearly all removal models assume closure during sampling. Yet, closure may be difficult to assume, evaluate, or enforce in many settings. To address situations where populations are geographically open between each removal sample, we incorporated a Markovian availability process into an N-mixture model framework. This model relates local abundance available for sampling to a superpopulation through recruitment of new individuals to the sampling area. To test the model, we (1) conducted parameter identifiability analysis, (2) fit the model to removal data generated from a random walk movement model, and (3) analyzed a case study of empirical removal data. Parameters were increasingly identifiable as capture probability exceeded 0.25 and removal samples increased from 3 to 6. Abundance estimates were unbiased when parameters were identifiable, except for scenarios that simulated a behavioral response to sampling. For our case study, the model estimated negligible recruitment for benthic-oriented fishes, indicating closure, but we found evidence against closure for juvenile Chinook salmon, a highly mobile species. Our removal model allows researchers to formally test closure assumptions, to estimate the degree of closure, and to estimate abundance without bias when closure is violated.

California↗