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USGS2025

Permafrost–wildfire interactions: active layer thickness estimates for paired burned and unburned sites in northern high latitudes

As the northern high-latitude permafrost zone experiences accelerated warming, permafrost has become vulnerable to widespread thaw. Simultaneously, wildfire activity across northern boreal forest and Arctic/subarctic tundra regions impacts permafrost stability through the combustion of insulating organic matter, vegetation, and post-fire changes in albedo. Efforts to synthesis the impacts of wildfire on permafrost are limited and are typically reliant on antecedent pre-fire conditions. To address this, we created the FireALT dataset by soliciting data contributions that included thaw depth measurements, site conditions, and fire event details with paired measurements at environmentally comparable burned and unburned sites. The solicitation resulted in 52 466 thaw depth measurements from 18 contributors across North America and Russia. Because thaw depths were taken at various times throughout the thawing season, we also estimated end-of-season active layer thickness (ALT) for each measurement using a modified version of the Stefan equation. Here, we describe our methods for collecting and quality-checking the data, estimating ALT, the data structure, strengths and limitations, and future research opportunities. The final dataset includes 48 669 ALT estimates with 32 attributes across 9446 plots and 157 burned–unburned pairs spanning Canada, Russia, and the United States. The data span fire events from 1900 to 2022 with measurements collected from 2001 to 2023. The time since fire ranges from 0 to 114 years. The FireALT dataset addresses a key challenge: the ability to assess impacts of wildfire on ALT when measurements are taken at various times throughout the thaw season depending on the time of field campaigns (typically June through August) by estimating ALT at the end-of-season maximum. This dataset can be used to address understudied research areas, particularly algorithm development, calibration, and validation for evolving process-based models as well as extrapolating across space and time, which could elucidate permafrost–wildfire interactions under accelerated warming across the high-northern-latitude permafrost zone. The FireALT dataset is available through the Arctic Data Center ( https://doi.org/10.18739/A2RN3092P , Talucci et al., 2024).

Arctic↗

USGS2019

Early-warning signals of individual tree mortality based on annual radial growth

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.

Frontiers in Plant Science↗

USGS2021

The Boreal-Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD)

Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and future methane emissions. Here we present the Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD), a land cover dataset based on an expert assessment, extrapolated using random forest modelling from available spatial datasets of climate, topography, soils, permafrost conditions, vegetation, wetlands, and surface water extents and dynamics. In BAWLD, we estimate the fractional coverage of five wetland, seven lake, and three river classes within 0.5 × 0.5∘ grid cells that cover the northern boreal and tundra biomes (17 % of the global land surface). Land cover classes were defined using criteria that ensured distinct methane emissions among classes, as indicated by a co-developed comprehensive dataset of methane flux observations. In BAWLD, wetlands occupied 3.2 × 106 km2 (14 % of domain) with a 95 % confidence interval between 2.8 and 3.8 × 106 km2. Bog, fen, and permafrost bog were the most abundant wetland classes, covering ∼ 28 % each of the total wetland area, while the highest-methane-emitting marsh and tundra wetland classes occupied 5 % and 12 %, respectively. Lakes, defined to include all lentic open-water ecosystems regardless of size, covered 1.4 × 106 km2 (6 % of domain). Low-methane-emitting large lakes (>10 km2) and glacial lakes jointly represented 78 % of the total lake area, while high-emitting peatland and yedoma lakes covered 18 % and 4 %, respectively. Small (<0.1 km2) glacial, peatland, and yedoma lakes combined covered 17 % of the total lake area but contributed disproportionally to the overall spatial uncertainty in lake area with a 95 % confidence interval between 0.15 and 0.38 × 106 km2. Rivers and streams were estimated to cover 0.12 × 106 km2 (0.5 % of domain), of which 8 % was associated with high-methane-emitting headwaters that drain organic-rich landscapes. Distinct combinations of spatially co-occurring wetland and lake classes were identified across the BAWLD domain, allowing for the mapping of “wetscapes” that have characteristic methane emission magnitudes and sensitivities to climate change at regional scales. With BAWLD, we provide a dataset which avoids double-accounting of wetland, lake, and river extents and which includes confidence intervals for each land cover class. As such, BAWLD will be suitable for many hydrological and biogeochemical modelling and upscaling efforts for the northern boreal and arctic region, in particular those aimed at improving assessments of current and future methane emissions. Data are freely available at https://doi.org/10.18739/A2C824F9X (Olefeldt et al., 2021).

Earth System Science Data↗

USGS2025

The Grouse & Grazing Project: Effects of cattle grazing on demographic traits of greater sage-grouse

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) were once widespread within sagebrush -grassland ecosystems of western North America, but populations have declined since the mid-1960s. Though sage-grouse were not listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), when examined in 2015, they remain a species of interest and concern. Roughly half of the sage-grouse’s remaining habitat is on federal land, most of it managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS). Livestock grazing is the most extensive land use within sage-grouse habitat and the effects of livestock grazing on sage-grouse are often debated. The extensive decade-long research project summarized in this report was initiated to provide rigorous experimental research to inform the debate regarding the relationship between livestock grazing and sage-grouse. In 2012, the Idaho Grouse & Grazing Project was started with several partners including the University of Idaho, BLM, Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG), and other partners to evaluate the effects of cattle grazing on sage-grouse vital rates. Many additional supporters have provided resources to this research effort including the Public Lands Council, Idaho Cattle Association, Idaho Governor’s Office of Species Conservation, Western Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, USFS, and numerous grazing associations and ranchers in Idaho. This 10-year research project was a scientifically rigorous and replicated experiment, occurring across five study sites in Idaho. This document is intended to provide a summary of the findings of this unprecedented study. Annual reports are available on the project’s website: https://idahogrousegrazing.org and scientific papers are being prepared and submitted to journals. The project focused on the influence of spring cattle grazing on sage-grouse vital rates across five study sites in Idaho including 21 BLM grazing pastures. From 2014-2023, we captured 1,343 grouse, documented the fate of 1,285 nests, and tracked 399 broods. Vegetation was characterized at 4,777 plots and grazing utilization levels were recorded at >30,000 locations. Because insects are an important food source for sage-grouse hens and their chicks, insect biomass and diversity were also examined in this study. We collected arthropods in 12,151 pitfall samples and 6,217 sweep-net samples across 786 plots within our five study sites. At each study site, three or four grazing treatments were implemented after two years of pre-treatment field investigations. These controlled cattle grazing treatments included spring-grazing in even years, spring-grazing in odd years, spring-and-fall grazing in alternating years, and a no grazing (or rested) control. Once grazing treatments were implemented at a study site, we measured sage-grouse demographic traits for 4-8 years post-treatment. Stocking rate (grazing intensity) was assessed across pastures each year and was influenced by vegetation communities, topography, and water sources. Grazed pastures exhibited lower grass cover and height compared to the no grazing pastures, and the extent of this difference varied based on annual precipitation levels. Rested pastures maintained higher grass cover and grass height, but the differences in habitat structure did not consistently translate to differences in sage-grouse demographic traits. Apparent nesting success varied annually and by site, ranging from 24% to 44% over the study period. Like some other studies, results from this research show that successful (i.e., hatched) sage-grouse nests have taller grass heights than failed nests. The average grass height surrounding successful nests in grazed pastures was shorter than that surrounding successful nests in non-grazed (i.e., rested) pastures. It is well documented that grazing reduces grass height, and these observations have led to widely held assumptions that livestock grazing reduces grass height which negatively affects sage-grouse nesting habitat. At the pasture scale, this study has found that sage-grouse nesting success is no greater in pastures that were rested for 4-8 years than those currently or recently grazed. This study gives no indication that removing cattle from pastures affected nesting success. We found some evidence that nest density varied among the grazing treatments, but we did not see compelling evidence of increases in density of nesting hens following cessation of grazing in the no grazing treatments. Brood survival varied by site and year but showed no strong effect of grazing treatment. Climatic conditions, particularly drought in 2021, had a greater effect on brood survival than grazing metrics. We also found no differences in hen survival among the grazing treatments. Results of this study suggest that hens nesting in spring and fall grazed pastures had similar or even slightly higher brood survival than hens in the rested pastures or the spring grazed pastures. Arthropod biomass and species diversity varied among our study sites and the differences between grazed and rested pastures also varied among study sites. Average biomass and diversity of arthropods was higher in the spring grazed pastures on two of three sites examined but higher in the rested pastures on the other site examined. Some taxa of arthropods were more abundant in grazed pastures while other taxa were more abundant in rested pastures. For example, Carabidae (Ground Beetles) and Formicidae (Ants) had higher biomass in grazed pastures, while Tenebrionidae (Darkling Beetles) and Acrididae (Grasshoppers) had higher biomass in non-grazed pastures. Results indicate that grazing effects on arthropod biomass and arthropod diversity are study site-dependent, suggesting a need to better quantify the most important prey taxa for sage-grouse chicks and to better control for other factors that influence arthropod abundance. Based on results of this research, livestock grazing, when properly managed, does not appear to negatively impact sage-grouse nest survival or brood success. This study provides critical insights for land managers balancing livestock production with sage-grouse conservation, supporting adaptive grazing strategies that maintain both economic and ecological objectives.

Idaho↗