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Guidelines for collection and field analysis of ground-water samples for selected unstable constituents

The unstable nature of many chemical and physical constituents in ground water requires special collection procedures and field analysis immediately after collection. This report describes the techniques and equipment commonly used in the collection and field analysis of samples for pH, temperature, carbonate, bicarbonate, specific conductance, Eh, and dissolved oxygen.

Open-File Report

Geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the Edwards and Trinity aquifers within northern Medina County, Texas

During 2023–24, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Edwards Aquifer Authority, revised a previous publication of the geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the Edwards and Trinity aquifers that was completed during 2018–20 within northern Medina County, Texas. The purpose of this report is to present the updated geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the rocks containing the Edwards and Trinity aquifers in northern Medina County from field observations of the surficial expressions of the rocks. The report includes a detailed 1:24,000-scale hydrostratigraphic map with names and descriptions of the geologic and hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) in the study area. This study includes updates to the geology of the Kainer Formation (or its stratigraphic equivalent, the Fort Terrett Formation) with the addition of a burrowed unit between the basal nodular and dolomitic members. The hydrostratigraphy was also updated with the addition of HSU IIA for the upper part of the Devils River Limestone and the Seco Pass HSU for the burrowed member of the Kainer (or Fort Terrett) Formation. The Cretaceous age rocks (listed in ascending order) in the study area are part of the Trinity Group, Edwards Group and stratigraphically equivalent Devils River Limestone, Washita Group, Eagle Ford Group, Austin Group, and Taylor Group, with isolated areas where Late Cretaceous age igneous rocks have intruded. The groups and formations are composed primarily of relatively thick layers of clays, shales, and limestone. The igneous rocks are coarse-grained ultramafic in composition. Hydrostratigraphically, the rocks exposed in the study area (listed in descending order from land surface) are igneous, the upper confining unit to the Edwards aquifer, the Edwards aquifer, the upper zone of the Trinity aquifer, and the upper part of the middle zone of the Trinity aquifer. The karstic carbonate Edwards and Trinity aquifers developed because of their original depositional history, primary and secondary porosity, diagenesis, fracturing, and faulting. These factors have resulted in development of modified porosity, permeability, and transmissivity within and between the aquifers.

Texas

Trace elements in some rocks and slag from the Yemen Arab Republic and their bearing on the iron ore near Sa'dah

Thirty-seven samples of rocks, saprolite, laterite, gossan, and slag were collected in the Yemen Arab Republic during June-July 1975 when field work was conducted to refine an interpretation of the regional geology made from LANDSAT-1 images by M. J. Grolier. These samples we reanalyzed in the laboratories of the U. S. Geological Survey, and the results were interpreted for use in programs of economic development as a guide for the evaluation of mineral resources in the Yemen Arab Republic. The work was undertaken as part of the program of the U. S. Agency for International Development with the cooperation of the Mineral and Petroleum Authority, Ministry of Economy, Yemen Arab Republic.

Open-File Report

Sources and risk factors for nitrate, pathogens, and fecal contamination of private wells in rural southwestern Wisconsin, USA

Household well water can be degraded by contaminants from the land's surface, but private well owners lack means to protect the source water from neighboring disturbances. Rural residents of southwestern Wisconsin, USA, rely on private well water, and the combination of land use and fractured carbonate bedrock makes groundwater vulnerable to contamination. To identify the extent, sources, and risk factors of private well contamination, randomly selected wells sampled during two-day periods in fall (n = 301) and spring (n = 529) were analyzed for nitrate and indicator bacteria, and a subset (n = 138) was sampled across four seasonal events for analysis of pathogens and microbial source tracking markers by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Risk factors representing land use, hydrology, geology, and well construction were analyzed for associations with contamination in multivariable models. The importance of risk factors varied by contaminant, illustrating the multifaceted nature of rural groundwater quality. Nitrate contamination was associated with agricultural land use, and wells with casings that extended below a shale aquitard accessed less contaminated water than those drawing water from above it. Human fecal microbes were detected in 64 wells (46%), and rainfall was the key risk factor for contamination, indicating that wastewater from septic systems was available to contaminate wells when transport conditions were favorable. Manure microbes from cattle/ruminants and pigs were detected in 33 and 13 wells, respectively, and concentrations increased with the hectarage of cultivated land near wells. Pathogen genes for viruses, bacteria, and protozoa were detected in 66 wells (48%), including more detections of zoonotic than human-specific pathogens, and human Bacteroides , an indicator of wastewater, was an equivocal predictor of pathogen presence in private wells. Characterizing important elements of the setting, like geology, and identifying sources and risk factors for contaminants can inform landscape-level policies to protect groundwater quality.

Wisconsin

SUTRA— A code for simulation of saturated-unsaturated, variable-density groundwater flow with solute or energy transport—Documentation of the version 4.0 enhancements—Freeze-thaw capability, saturation and relative-permeability relations, spatially varying properties, and enhanced budget and velocity outputs

Version 4.0 of the Saturated-Unsaturated Transport (SUTRA) software code provides the capability to simulate the freezing and thawing of groundwater during energy transport simulations under saturated and unsaturated conditions. In addition to the types of hydrogeologic processes that SUTRA has been able to simulate in the past, this version can be used to study the effects of the freeze-thaw process on the flow and energy dynamics of hydrogeologic systems. The freeze-thaw simulation capability accounts for the latent heat of fusion and allows thermal property values to vary with changing total-water saturation, liquid-water saturation, and ice saturation. It allows the effective permeability of the porous medium to change as a result of freezing and thawing. This version also provides several user-selectable relations for the dependence of total-water saturation on fluid pressure, the dependence of liquid-water saturation on temperature during freezing and thawing, and the dependence of relative permeability on liquid saturation, as well as three user-selectable formulae for defining the bulk thermal conductivity of a mixture of solid grains, liquid water, ice, and air. For unsaturated simulations without freezing, the selectable total-water saturation relations eliminate the need for the user to program these and their associated relative-permeability functions, as had been required in previous SUTRA versions. Optional nonlinear dependence of fluid density on temperature, which covers the range from supercooled (about −50 degrees Celsius) to superheated (about 400 degrees Celsius), is also provided. Additionally, this version makes it possible to spatially vary parameters that, in previous versions of SUTRA, were required to be spatially uniform: solid-matrix properties, adsorption parameters, and parameters for production of solute mass or energy. Spatial variation is also allowed for the newly included freeze-thaw process parameters. Additional enhancements provide (1) output of water-mass and energy budgets that include values of all component terms in the governing balance equations, and (2) output of Darcy velocities (fluid fluxes), in addition to the velocity output provided by previous SUTRA versions. These enhanced outputs allow fuller interpretation of simulation results, especially for freeze-thaw phenomena. The set of processes simulated by this version of SUTRA are useful for studying a wide range of hydrogeologic system types, conditions, and questions. For cryohydrogeologic simulations, however, this version of the code is limited in that (1) it does not simulate thermomechanical effects of freeze-thaw, (2) pressure changes due to water density change during freezing are neglected, (3) ice saturation cannot exceed the initial porosity of the simulated medium, and (4) cryosuction, the migration of liquid water toward freezing fronts, is neglected. Furthermore, this version does not account for air flow or for water vaporization and sublimation under unsaturated conditions.

Techniques and Methods

Hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity estimates from slug tests in wells within the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, Arkansas and Mississippi, 2020

During the spring and summer of 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted single-well slug tests on selected observation wells within the Mississippi Alluvial Plain in Arkansas and Mississippi to estimate hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity values for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial and middle Claiborne aquifers. Well and aquifer data were collected from field measurements, well-construction reports, and published aquifer-thickness information. A total of 324 slug-in and slug-out tests were conducted on 48 wells by using mechanical slugs to displace the water column and submersible pressure transducers to record changes in water levels in the wells. Hydraulic conductivity of the aquifers in which the wells are screened was estimated by curve fitting the water-level-change data using aquifer test analysis software. Estimates of aquifer transmissivity were made by multiplying the estimated hydraulic conductivity value by the aquifer thickness at well locations. Mean hydraulic conductivity estimates for 44 observation wells screened in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer range from 3 to 401 feet per day, and mean transmissivity estimates range from 285 to 80,559 feet squared per day. Mean hydraulic conductivity estimates for four observation wells screened in units of the middle Claiborne aquifer range from 0.14 to 183 feet per day, and mean transmissivity estimates range from 55 to 67,913 feet squared per day. The results from these tests can be used to improve the understanding of water availability and groundwater migration, to refine groundwater models, and to ultimately provide stakeholders and decisionmakers better information for management of the groundwater resources within the Mississippi Alluvial Plain.

Arkansas, Mississippi

Geochemistry of quartz and fluid inclusions associated with gold, tungsten, and antimony in the Stibnite-Yellow Pine district, Idaho

Deposits in the historic Stibnite-Yellow Pine district in east-central Idaho were mined for Ag, Au, Hg, Sb, and W. Ore is hosted in breccia and fault zones along NE-striking faults that transect the Atlanta lobe of the Late Cretaceous Idaho batholith and metamorphosed Neoproterozoic to lower Paleozoic rocks. Geochronological studies have delineated five superimposed and zoned hydrothermal events in the mining district which range in age from Late Cretaceous to the Eocene. They formed the following consecutive assemblages: (1) vein and disseminated pre-ore milky quartz (± calcite), muscovite, and brassy pyrite with minor molybdenite and base metal sulfides; (2) vein and disseminated quartz, calcite, sericite, auriferous-pyrite, and arsenopyrite; (3) potassium feldspar, quartz, dolomite, and calcite with vein and disseminated scheelite ± pyrite and arsenopyrite; (4) Au-Ag veins that contain adularia; and (5) breccia, vein, and disseminated quartz, calcite, and stibnite with minor Ag sulfosalts and distal zones of cinnabar and realgar at Fern and Hermes mines. In this study, the pressure, temperature, and composition of ore-forming fluids were measured in Au-, W-, and Sb-bearing samples collected from drill core and surface exposures. Using optical petrography, scanning electron microscopy cathodoluminescence (SEM-CL) and electron microprobe cathodoluminescence (EMPA-CL) imaging, as well as electron microprobe (EMP) and laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry trace element analyses, four major overprinting generations of hydrothermal quartz are defined. Fluid inclusion assemblages (FIAs) in each generation of quartz were characterized by microthermometry and laser Raman spectroscopy. Quartz and fluid inclusion paragenesis are as follows: (Qi) altered and overprinted Qi with no coeval FIAs that formed before or during event 1; (Q1) early veins as well as disseminated quartz with dull gray SEM-CL and H 2 O-NaCl-CO 2 FIAs that formed at minimum temperatures and pressures of 281° to 358°C and 1346 to 1789 bar during event 2 (Au); (Q2) vein and disseminated quartz, often euhedral, with H 2 O-NaCl ± CO 2 ± CH 4 FIAs that formed at minimum temperatures and pressures of 183° to 213°C and 72 to 602 bar during event 3 (W); and (Q3) euhedral and disseminated quartz with H 2 O-NaCl FIAs that formed at minimum temperature and pressures of 156° to 161°C and 5 to 6 bar during event 5 (Sb). Stibnite hosts H 2 O-NaCl FIAs trapped at minimum temperatures and pressures of 150° to 189°C and 5 to 12 bar that are similar to those of Q3-hosted FIAs. The quartz paragenetic history in the district follows a progressive temporal path from Tienriched quartz deposited by a relatively deep and higher temperature aqueous-carbonic fluid to a Li, Al, and Sb enriched quartz precipitated from a lower temperature aqueous fluid. Gases in fluid inclusion extracts from ore and gangue minerals were analyzed by mass spectrometry. Noble gas isotope analysis of fluid inclusion extracts revealed three signatures. Pre-ore Qi has R/R A (the isotopic ratio of the sample 3 He/ 4 He to atmospheric 3 He/ 4 He (1.384 × 10 −6 )) values that reflect the composition of the crustal melt-derived Atlanta lobe of the Idaho batholith. Quartz (Q1) and auriferous arsenian pyrite of hydrothermal event 2 have 20 Ne/ 4 He and R/R A values that plot along the air-crust mixing line, and these gases were likely introduced by metamorphic fluids derived from metasedimentary rocks. Stibnite with associated quartz (Q3 ± Q2) have 20 Ne/ 4 He and R/R A values that extend from the air-crust mixing line to the air-mantle mixing line, showing a shift from a crustal signature to an overprinting mantle signature. Late calcite has 20 Ne/ 4 He and R/R A values that extend from air toward the mantle end member, which suggests that magmatic volatiles condensed into meteoric groundwater late in the paragenesis. A mantle volatile source is also supported by high 20 Ne/ 22 Ne ratios. The Stibnite-Yellow Pine district is similar to other Au-W-Sb districts around the world in ore fluid chemistries, with late-stage stibnite being a product of cooling. The fluid pressure-temperature-composition (P-T-X) estimates and the crustal source of He during hydrothermal event 2 gold mineralization are characteristic of orogenic Au deposits, and the observed inclusion reequilibration textures indicate that trapped fluid inclusions were deformed during transitions between the brittle-ductile environment. Scheelite was deposited during event 3 with Q2 quartz and is overgrown by Q3 quartz and stibnite. Our interpretation of the quartz texture, chemistry, and fluid inclusion P-T-X data suggest that Au, W, and Sb mineralization occurred as hydrothermal fluids evolved from H 2 O-NaCl-CO 2 at >300°C and depths of ~4 to 6 km near the ductile to brittle transition to H 2 O-NaCl at ~150°C and epithermal depths as the Idaho batholith was exhumed. Geochronology indicates that from the Late Cretaceous to early Eocene, overprinting hydrothermal events formed deep orogenic Au, intermediate W, and shallow epithermal Au-Ag and Sb. Without comprehensive geochronologic constraints, our fluid inclusion data and textural observations could be interpreted as a single evolving hydrothermal system, as has been done in many other mining districts with similar mineralization.

Idaho

Comparative crop yield forecasting using satellite-derived biophysical and agro-climatic predictors in Sub-Saharan Africa

Timely and accurate crop yield forecasting is central to food security early warning systems, particularly in climate-vulnerable regions. While operational forecasting frameworks commonly rely on precipitation and vegetation indices such as NDVI, their ability to provide actionable lead time remains limited. Here, we evaluate the added value of satellite-derived biophysical Essential Climate Variables (ECVs): Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), for forecasting millet yield in Burkina Faso (BF) and maize yield in South Africa (ZA) and Malawi (MW). Using Random Forest models, we quantify forecast skill across the growing season at both national and sub-national scales. Results show that LAI and FAPAR provide effective forecast lead times of approximately 4 months in BF, 2 months in ZA, and up to 6 months in MW relative to harvest. At peak performance, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) reaches 19.8% (LAI) and 23.8% (FAPAR) in BF, 12.0% and 9.8% in ZA, and 21.8% and 20.8% in MW, respectively. Across countries, biophysical parameters often outperform NDVI and precipitation, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. At the sub-national level, LAI and FAPAR enable classification of administrative units into high and moderate-skill forecast units, revealing strong spatial heterogeneity linked to crop dominance. However, forecast skill declines where the target crop is not the dominant type, highlighting an important limitation for operational deployment. Overall, the findings suggest that satellite-derived biophysical parameters can provide earlier and more spatially resolved yield signals than commonly used predictors, with potential to improve the timeliness and effectiveness of food security early warning systems.

Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environme

Hazard potential of compound flooding from rainfall, storm surge, and groundwater in coastal New York and Connecticut

Compound flood events, the co-occurrence of multiple flood drivers, can result in flood hazard potential exceeding that of any single driver alone. To evaluate compound flooding in a semi-urbanized coastal area, historical records dating back to 1970 are used to study the co-occurrences of high precipitation, storm surge, and shallow groundwater conditions along the coastlines of New York and Connecticut. Joint return periods for coincident precipitation-surge events were computed using statistical dependence models and compared to the assumption of independence as a ratio, referred to here as a return period adjustment. Results indicate distinct seasonality where compound events in the area disproportionately occur in the cold season between October and April. Return period adjustments range from a factor of 1 to almost 9, demonstrating the range in precipitation-storm surge dependence across the study area. Across all 24 station triad locations, groundwater levels were elevated during times of precipitation- surge co-occurrence, reflecting the tendency for coastal storms and shallow groundwater conditions to co-occur seasonally. The result is a pseudo-trivariate compound flood hazard score and corresponding hazard map that integrates dependence between daily precipitation-surge events and overall monthly groundwater levels (as a precondition) into a relative compound hazard score. The location with the highest compound flood hazard score is on the south shore of Long Island, as well as locations across coastal Connecticut where groundwater levels compound the co-occurrence of heavy precipitation and storm surge.

Connecticut, New York

Geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the Edwards and Trinity aquifers within Hays County, Texas

During 2023–24, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Edwards Aquifer Authority, revised a previous publication of the geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the Edwards and Trinity aquifers that was completed during 2018 within Hays County, Texas. The purpose of this report is to present the updated geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the rocks containing the Edwards and Trinity aquifers in Hays County from field observations of the surficial expressions of the rocks. The report includes a detailed 1:24,000-scale hydrostratigraphic map with names and descriptions of the geologic framework and hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) in the study area. The study includes updates to the interpretation of the Kainer Formation of the Edwards Group with the addition of a burrowed unit between the basal nodular and dolomitic members. Hydrostratigraphy was also updated with the addition of the Seco Pass HSU for the burrowed member of the Kainer Formation. The study also includes updates to the interpretation of the hydrostratigraphy of the Trinity aquifer with the addition of the cavernous HSU at the top of the upper zone of the Trinity aquifer and the Herff Falls HSU between the Bulverde and Rust HSUs of the middle zone of the Trinity aquifer. This updated report provides additional information about a complex aquifer system. The complexity in the aquifer system results from a combination of the original depositional history, bioturbation, development of primary and secondary porosity, postdepositional diagenesis, fracturing, and faulting.

Texas

Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center—2023 annual report

The 2023 annual report of the U.S. Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center highlights accomplishments of 2023, includes a list of 2023 publications, and summarizes the work of the center, as well as the work of each of its science groups. This product allows readers to gain a general understanding of the focus areas of the center’s scientific research and learn more about specific projects and progress made throughout 2023, all while enjoying photographs taken in various environments and laboratories, and applicable maps and figures.

Circular

Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center—2024 annual report

The 2024 annual report of the U.S. Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center highlights accomplishments of 2024, includes a list of 2024 publications, and summarizes the work of the center, as well as the work of each of its science groups. This product allows readers to gain a general understanding of the focus areas of the center’s scientific research and learn more about specific projects and progress made throughout 2024, all while enjoying photographs taken in various environments and laboratories, and applicable maps and figures.

Circular

Streamflow, base flow, and ground-water recharge in the Housatonic River basin, western Massachusetts and parts of eastern New York and northwestern Connecticut

Streamflows for selected flow durations from 1 to 99 percent and the August median streamflows were estimated for 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations in and near the study area. Estimates of streamflow and associated standard errors were determined for selected flow durations from 50 to 99 percent and the August median streamflows for 21 low-flow partial-record stations and for selected flow durations from 1 to 99 percent and the August median streamflows for two partial-record stations and seven short-term discontinued streamflow-gaging stations. Median streamflows per square mile for the 10-, 50-, and 90-percent flow durations and the August median streamflows were 3.90, 1.01, 0.185, and 0.248 cubic feet per second per square mile. Streamflows per square mile at selected flow-duration discharges between 1 and 99 percent at the 41 stations were related to basin characteristics to explain differences in streamflow characteristics. Basin characteristics included basin elevations, extent of stratified-drift deposits, land use, aspect, and underlying bedrock geology types. Most streamflow differences were positively correlated to basin elevation differences, most likely because precipitation increases with elevation, and to stratified-drift deposits, which allow more precipitation to recharge the ground water and to discharge later than do till and bedrock deposits. Mean base flow was computed from continuous records of daily mean discharge at 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations in and near the study area. Mean annual base flow ranged from 13.4 to 24.5 inches per year. Minimum annual base flow ranged from 45 to 72 percent of mean annual rates at the 11 long-term stations, and the ratio of base flow to streamflow (base-flow index) ranged from 0.55 to 0.80. Base-flow durations between 1 and 99 percent were calculated from streamflow records at the 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations. Base flow accounted for 45.5 to 85.0 percent of total annual streamflow at the 1- and 99-percent flow durations. Ground-water-recharge rates were computed from continuous records of daily mean discharge at 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations in and near the study area. Mean annual ground-water-recharge rates ranged from 17.5 to 22.4 inches per year at 10 of the 11 long-term stations. Mean annual ground-water-recharge rates ranged from 2 to 7 inches per year higher than base flow. Minimum annual ground-water-recharge rates ranged from 48 to 72 percent of mean annual ground-water-recharge rates. Mean annual potential ground-water recharge was estimated from monthly climatological data collected at six climatological stations in and near the study area. Mean potential ground-water recharge ranged from about 17.9 to 28.9 inches per year, with a median value of 22.6 inches per year. This median value compares well to that calculated by use of streamflow records at the 11 streamflow-gaging stations (20.0 inches per year). Streamflows per square mile for the 10-, 50-, and 90-percent flow durations at stations in and near the study area were similar to those computed for other unregulated long-term continuous streamflow-gaging stations in central and eastern Massachusetts. Base-flow and ground-water-recharge rates in the study area compared closely to results from other studies in southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, which were based on the same computational methods.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York

Land-use interactions, Oil-Field infrastructure, and natural processes control hydrocarbon and arsenic concentrations in groundwater, Poso Creek Oil Field, California, USA

Like many hydrocarbon production areas in the U.S., the Poso Creek Oil Field in California includes and is adjacent to other land uses (agricultural and other developed lands) that affect the hydrology and geochemistry of the aquifer overlying and adjacent to oil development. We hypothesize that the distributions of hydrocarbons and arsenic in groundwater in such areas will be controlled by complex interactions between mixed land uses, oil-field infrastructure, and natural processes. In 2020–2021, samples of groundwater and surface water were collected and analyzed for a large suite of inorganic and organic chemicals and isotope and gas tracers to test this hypothesis. Those data are supplemented with ancillary data on historical geochemistry, hydrology, geology, and oil-field infrastructure. Hydrocarbons in groundwater (e.g., methane through pentane gases and benzene) are associated with natural processes (e.g., fault offsets or transition in sediment depositional environment) and oil-field infrastructure (e.g., fluid-migration pathways associated with uncemented annulus in oil wells or unlined pits). Arsenic concentrations >10 μg per liter (μg/L; maximum concentration 12.9 μg/L) are associated with natural processes in old, high-pH groundwater, and more recent recharge of water from natural and/or engineered recharge processes. Along the southwest margin of the oil field, pumping for drinking-water and irrigation supplies in combination with engineered groundwater recharge produce a depression in groundwater elevations where groundwater with elevated sulfate concentrations from agricultural areas and groundwater with hydrocarbons from the oil field mix to produce a zone of sulfate reduction that removes hydrocarbons and arsenic from groundwater but produces elevated sulfide (S 2- ) concentrations (maximum concentration 29 mg per liter, mg/L). In this study, multiple approaches were required to resolve the overlapping effects of land uses, oil-field infrastructure, and natural processes on the distributions of hydrocarbons and arsenic in groundwater. The combined use of geographic, historical, physical, chemical, isotopic, and other information to constrain processes could be a useful approach for studies in other hydrocarbon-production areas. This is particularly important where land uses affect aquifer hydrology to an extent that causes mixing of groundwaters with different chemical compositions.

California

Navigating uncertainty and competing objectives: Spring chinook salmon recovery in the upper Willamette river

Globally, anadromous fish populations are threatened with extinction due to multiple factors, including river impoundments that block migration, widespread alteration of physical habitat, temperature, and flow regimes, commercial and recreational harvest, changes in biological communities, and long-term climate trends. In this synthesis, we describe how physical and biological factors, policy and law, and public resource allocation affect management of spring-run Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Upper Willamette River (UWR), Oregon, USA. Efforts to restore salmon populations often involve trade-offs, for example, water management decisions must account for flood control, agricultural and municipal water use, and management of other species. UWR Chinook Salmon recovery efforts are also governed by multiple laws, policies, and action agencies that in some cases have incongruent objectives. Competing and conflicting objectives, combined with uncertainty regarding the outcomes of proposed management actions, create significant challenges for decision makers. Resource limitations, regulatory constraints, and incongruent objectives have created challenges for managers in the UWR, but opportunities exist for improved adaptive management and collaboration, which could build trust and engagement among stakeholders and ultimately support the successful implementation of decision tools. A suite of decision support tools that have been used in the Willamette River basin and elsewhere across the range of Pacific salmon have the potential to enhance decision processes. These tools can be effective when decision makers and stakeholders commit to long-term, collaborative utilization of the tools for decision making, and when available resources and regulatory environments are conducive to implementation and adaptive refinement of both the decision-support tools and management plans. The general biological and institutional principles discussed for UWR Chinook Salmon in this work apply more generally to populations of anadromous fishes across their range, especially to populations in highly regulated river systems.

Oregon

Dynamic baseflow storage estimates and the role of topography, geology and evapotranspiration on streamflow recession characteristics in the Neversink Reservoir Watershed, New York

Estimates of dynamic groundwater volumes supplying baseflow to streams are important for water availability projections during extended periods of drought. The primary goals of this study were to provide dynamic storage volume estimates, inferred from streamflow recession analysis, for baseflow regimes within seven gaged catchments within the Neversink Reservoir Watershed (NRW), a critical municipal water source for New York City. Additionally, geomorphological properties, surficial geology and hydro-meteorological processes were quantified and described in relation to time and spatially variable recession behaviour and storage estimates across the NRW. To explore these relationships, we (1) evaluated seasonal trends in streamflow recession behaviour in relation to modelled potential evapotranspiration (PET) and catchment runoff rates, (2) derived empirical streamflow models for cool-season runoff using both linear and nonlinear reservoir assumptions for baseflow and (3) calculated metrics related to the geology and geomorphology of each catchment and compared these metrics to area normalised baseflow dynamic storage estimates. Results show that baseflow recession behaves as a nonlinear reservoir, and applying linear groundwater reservoir assumptions may underestimate the total dynamic storage volumes compared to what would be predicted for a nonlinear reservoir. Increases in PET caused decreases in storage conditions that resulted in increased recession rates and nonlinearity in streamflow recession during the growing season. Additionally, we found that while no single physical catchment characteristic solely predicted catchment storage dynamics, sediment volume and stream gradients were stronger predictors of normalised storage volumes than catchment surface area or surface topography alone. Within the NRW, catchments with the highest sediment volume exhibited the lowest recession rates and higher dynamic storage volumes, while the smallest catchment, mostly devoid of sediment, had the fastest recession rate and lowest dynamic storage volume.

New York

Modeling byproduct and coproduct mine production and mineral substitution using multidimensional supply curves: Application to the Cu-Co-Ni system and beyond

Rapid demand growth is expected for many metals used in the energy transition. Many of these metals are byproducts of other commodities. Byproduct production’s price response is tied to host mineral economics, complicating its supply dynamics. Moreover, many of these metals are used in applications where the material properties desired are difficult to substitute; effectively, limiting how quickly demand can adapt to changes in commodity price. Previous work has demonstrated the interconnectivity of jointly produced mineral commodities from the supply side, where the copper–cobalt–nickel system was used and demand was assumed independent across commodities. Studies to understand byproduct-coproduct market interconnectivity on the demand side are limited, while studies on the interconnectivity of supply and demand simultaneously are even more so. We propose a modification to the multicommodity supply curve method to enable inter-commodity effects on demand simultaneous with supply. In batteries, high cobaltprices may push consumers to transition to high-nickel chemistries, causing the nickel demand surface to decrease with nickel price but increase with cobaltprice, creating a two-dimensional demand surface. Below cross-price elasticities of 0.05, inter-commodity effects were found to be negligible, potentially permitting exclusion of these effects for many commodities. This additional demand curve complexity introduces potential computation challenges alongside the capacity to model many interrelated commodity systems such as rare earth elements, ferroalloys, country-oriented subsidies or restrictions, and bifurcated sustainable metals markets. By presenting the work done on multicommodity supply surfaces to date and potential new directions, this work aims to catalyze the next round of innovative approaches to modeling jointly produced commodities.

Conference Paper