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Development of a multimetric index for integrated assessment of salt marsh ecosystem condition

Tools for assessing and communicating salt marsh condition are essential to guide decisions aimed at maintaining or restoring ecosystem integrity and services. Multimetric indices (MMIs) are increasingly used to provide integrated assessments of ecosystem condition. We employed a theory-based approach that considers the multivariate relationship of metrics with human disturbance to construct a salt marsh MMI for five National Parks in the northeastern USA. We quantified the degree of human disturbance for each marsh using the first principal component score from a principal components analysis of physical, chemical, and land use stressors. We then applied a metric selection algorithm to different combinations of about 45 vegetation and nekton metrics (e.g., species abundance, species richness, and ecological and functional classifications) derived from multi-year monitoring data. While MMIs derived from nekton or vegetation metrics alone were strongly correlated with human disturbance ( r values from −0.80 to −0.93), an MMI derived from both vegetation and nekton metrics yielded an exceptionally strong correlation with disturbance ( r = −0.96). Individual MMIs included from one to five metrics. The metric-assembly algorithm yielded parsimonious MMIs that exhibit the greatest possible correlations with disturbance in a way that is objective, efficient, and reproducible.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

Landscape-scale wildlife species richness metrics to inform wind and solar energy facility siting: An Arizona case study

The juxtaposition of wildlife and wind or solar energy facility infrastructure can present problems for developers, planners, policy makers, and management agencies. Guidance on siting of these renewable energy facilities may help identify potential wildlife-facility conflicts with species of regulatory or economic concern. However, existing spatial guidance usually does not consider all wildlife that might use a potential facility location or corridors for its servicing infrastructure. We illustrate an approach toward assessing potential wildlife-facility conflicts using readily available vertebrate habitat models. The U.S. Geological Survey's Gap Analysis Program (GAP) has developed spatial models of potential habitat for vertebrate species across the entire nation. To illustrate their applicability, we used GAP models to estimate richness of all native, terrestrial vertebrates within Arizona and for those vertebrates grouped by class or by sensitivity to the type of facility infrastructure. We examined the spatial overlap of high species richness of each group with agency-developed guidance used to inform facility-siting decisions and found that GAP-based richness mappings augmented existing guidance. As the GAP vertebrate habitat models are publicly available for the entire USA, use of these data can provide a coarse view of potential wildlife-facility conflicts and inform facility planning early in the process.

Arizona↗

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative: 2011 annual report

This is the fourth report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual work activities. In FY2011, there were 37 ongoing, completed, or new projects conducted under the five major multi-disciplinary science and technical-assistance activities: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Targeted Monitoring and Research, (3) Data and Information Management, (4) Integration and Coordination, and (5) Decisionmaking and Evaluation. The four new work activities were (1) development of the Western Energy Citation Clearinghouse, a Web-based energy-resource database of references for literature and on-line resources focused on energy development and its effects on natural resources; (2) a study to support the Sublette County Conservation District in ascertaining potential water-quality impacts to the New Fork River from energy development in the Pinedale Anticline Project Area; (3) a study to test the efficacy of blending high-frequency temporal data provided by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors and high-resolution Landsat data for providing the fine-resolution data required to evaluate habitat responses to management activities at the landscape level; and (4) a study to examine the seasonal water chemistry of Muddy Creek, including documenting salinity patterns and providing a baseline for assessing potential effects of energy and other development on water quality in the Muddy Creek watershed. Two work activities were completed in FY2011: (1) the assessment of rancher perceptions of energy development in Southwest Wyoming and (2) mapping aspen stands and conifer encroachment using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for effectiveness monitoring. The USGS continued to compile data, develop geospatial products, and upgrade Web-based products in support of both individual and overall WLCI efforts, including (1) ranking and prioritizing proposed conservation projects, (2) developing the WLCI integrated assessment, (3) developing the WLCI 5-year Conservation Action Plan, and (4) continuing to upgrade the content and improve the functionality of the WLCI Web site. For the WLCI FY2012 annual report, a decision was made to greatly reduce the overall length of the annual report, which will be accomplished by simplifying the report format and focusing on the take-home messages of each work activity for WLCI partners.

Wyoming↗

Evaluation of a black-footed ferret resource utilization function model

Resource utilization function (RUF) models permit evaluation of potential habitat for endangered species; ideally such models should be evaluated before use in management decision‐making. We evaluated the predictive capabilities of a previously developed black‐footed ferret ( Mustela nigripes ) RUF. Using the population‐level RUF, generated from ferret observations at an adjacent yet distinct colony, we predicted the distribution of ferrets within a black‐tailed prairie dog ( Cynomys ludovicianus ) colony in the Conata Basin, South Dakota, USA. We evaluated model performance, using data collected during post‐breeding spotlight surveys (2007–2008) by assessing model agreement via weighted compositional analysis and count‐metrics. Compositional analysis of home range use and colony‐level availability, and core area use and home range availability, demonstrated ferret selection of the predicted Very high and High occurrence categories in 2007 and 2008. Simple count‐metrics corroborated these findings and suggested selection of the Very high category in 2007 and the Very high and High categories in 2008. Collectively, these results suggested that the RUF was useful in predicting occurrence and intensity of space use of ferrets at our study site, the 2 objectives of the RUF. Application of this validated RUF would increase the resolution of habitat evaluations, permitting prediction of the distribution of ferrets within distinct colonies. Additional model evaluation at other sites, on other black‐tailed prairie dog colonies of varying resource configuration and size, would increase understanding of influences upon model performance and the general utility of the RUF.

South Dakota↗

Managing water and riparian habitats on the Bill Williams River with scientific benefit for other desert river systems

This report details modeling to: 1) codify flow-ecology relationships for riparian species of the Bill Williams River as operational guidance for water managers, 2) test the guidance under different climate scenarios, and 3) revise the operational guidance as needed to address the effects of climate change. Model applications detailed herein include the River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and the Ecosystem Functions Model (HEC-EFM), which was used to generate more than three million estimates of local seedling recruitment areas. Areas were aggregated and compared to determine which scenarios generated the most seedling area per unit volume of water. Scenarios that maximized seedling area were grouped into a family of curves that serve as guidance for water managers. This work has direct connections to water management decision-making and builds upon and adds to the rich history of science-based management for the Bill Williams River, Arizona, USA.

Arizona↗

Developing an outcome-based biodiversity metric in support of the field to market project: Final report

Our objective was to create a metric that would calculate the relative impact of common commercial agricultural practices on terrestrial vertebrate richness. We sought to define impacts in fields (including field borders) of the southeastern region’s commercial production of corn, wheat, soy, and cotton. The metric is intended to serve as an educational tool, allowing producers to see how operational decisions made at the field level impact overall vertebrate species richness and to explore decision impacts to targeted species groups (e.g. game, pest, or beneficial species). Agricultural landscapes are often mistakenly thought to be unsuitable habitat for most species. However, as demonstrated by results reported here, even large-scale, conventional agricultural producers are potentially important partners in biodiversity conservation. Many vertebrate species do inhabit agricultural landscapes, benefitting from the provision of water, food, or shelter within cultivated fields and their immediate borders (e.g., Holland et al. 2012). In the Southeastern US, of the 613 terrestrial vertebrate species modeled by the Southeast Gap Analysis Program (SEGAP) (http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/segap/index.html), 263 utilize row crop and associated agricultural land cover classes as potential habitat (Box 1). While some species may be sensitive to certain operational practices (e.g., tillage, pest management, or field border management practices), others are generally tolerant, and some may benefit either directly or indirectly. For example, field margins and ditches often serve as semi-natural habitats providing foraging resources and shelter for vertebrates and are shown to positively influence species richness and abundance (Billeter et al. 2007; Herzon & Helenius 2008; Marshall & Moonen 2002; Shore et al. 2005; Weibull et al. 2003; Wuczyńskia et al. 2011). Biodiversity responses are, therefore, complex, as an individual species’ responses to agricultural production practices depends on that animal’s resource specialization, mobility, and life history strategies (Jeanneret et al. 2003a, b; Jennings & Pocock 2009). The knowledge necessary to define the biodiversity contribution of agricultural lands is specialized, dispersed, and nuanced, and thus not readily accessible. Given access to clearly defined biodiversity tradeoffs between alternative agricultural practices, landowners, land managers and farm operators could collectively enhance the conservation and economic value of agricultural landscapes. Therefore, Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture and The Nature Conservancy jointly funded a pilot project to develop a biodiversity metric to integrate into Field to Market’s existing sustainability calculator, The Fieldprint Calculator (http://www. fieldtomarket.org/). Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture is an alliance among producers, agribusinesses, food companies, and conservation organizations seeking to create sustainable outcomes for agriculture. The Fieldprint Calculator supports the Keystone Alliance’s vision to achieve safe, accessible, and nutritious food, fiber and fuel in thriving ecosystems to meet the needs of 9 billion people in 2050. In support of this same vision, our project provides proof-of-concept for an outcome-based biodiversity metric for Field to Market to quantify biodiversity impacts of commercial row crop production on terrestrial vertebrate richness. Little research exists examining the impacts of alternative commercial agricultural practices on overall terrestrial biodiversity (McLaughlin & Mineau 1995). Instead, most studies compare organic versus conventional practices (e.g. Freemark & Kirk 2001; Wickramasinghe et al. 2004), and most studies focus on flora, avian, or invertebrate communities (Jeanneret et al. 2003a; Maes et al. 2008; Pollard & Relton 1970). Therefore, we used an expert-knowledge-based approach to develop a metric that predicts expected impacts to shelter and forage resources, individual species, and overall biodiversity (species richness). This approach is modeled after an ecosystems services concept (WRI 2005), except that we examine services (i.e., resources) provided to vertebrate wildlife rather than service provided to the human population. SEGAP predicts species that are potentially present in an area given landscape-scale habitat availability, configuration, and context (e.g., patch size, proximity to resources, connectivity, potential for disturbance). Based on the prediction of species that may be potentially present, the impacts of management decisions within fields and around their borders can be analyzed based on the impact of those practices to the availability of species’ resources. The final metric provides an index of a producer’s relative impact, but perhaps even more importantly, the underlying database allows producers to explore details such as which species are most impacted or how alternative decisions would impact their score.

Technical Bulletin↗

EthoCRED: A framework to guide reporting and evaluation of the relevance and reliability of behavioural ecotoxicity studies

Behavioural analysis has been attracting significant attention as a broad indicator of sub-lethal toxicity and has secured a place as an important subdiscipline in ecotoxicology. Among the most notable characteristics of behavioural research, compared to other established approaches in sub-lethal ecotoxicology (e.g. reproductive and developmental bioassays), are the wide range of study designs being used and the diversity of endpoints considered. At the same time, environmental hazard and risk assessment, which underpins regulatory decisions to protect the environment from potentially harmful chemicals, often recommends that ecotoxicological data be produced following accepted and validated test guidelines. These guidelines typically do not address behavioural changes, meaning that these, often sensitive, effects are not represented in hazard and risk assessments. Here, we propose a new tool, the EthoCRED evaluation method, for assessing the relevance and reliability of behavioural ecotoxicity data, which considers the unique requirements and challenges encountered in this field. This method and accompanying reporting recommendations are designed to serve as an extension of the “Criteria for Reporting and Evaluating Ecotoxicity Data (CRED)” project. As such, EthoCRED can both accommodate the wide array of experimental design approaches seen in behavioural ecotoxicology, and could be readily implemented into regulatory frameworks as deemed appropriate by policy makers of different jurisdictions to allow better integration of knowledge gained from behavioural testing into environmental protection. Furthermore, through our reporting recommendations, we aim to improve the reporting of behavioural studies in the peer-reviewed literature, and thereby increase their usefulness to inform chemical regulation.

Biological Reviews↗

Applying threshold concepts to conservation management of dryland ecosystems: Case studies on the Colorado Plateau

Ecosystems may occupy functionally distinct alternative states, some of which are more or less desirable from a management standpoint. Transitions from state to state are usually associated with a particular trigger or sequence of triggers, such as the addition or subtraction of a disturbance. Transitions are often not linear, rather it is common to see an abrupt transition come about even though the trigger increases only incrementally; these are examples of threshold behaviors. An ideal monitoring program, such as the National Park Service’s Inventory and Monitoring Program, would quantify triggers, and be able to inform managers when measurements of a trigger are approaching a threshold so that management action can avoid an unwanted state transition. Unfortunately, both triggers and the threshold points at which state transitions occur are generally only partially known. Using case studies, we advance a general procedure to help identify triggers and estimate where threshold dynamics may occur. Our procedure is as follows: (1) Operationally define the ecosystem type being considered; we suggest that the ecological site concept of the Natural Resource Conservation Service is a useful system, (2) Using all available a priori knowledge to develop a state-and-transition model (STM), which defines possible ecosystem states, plausible transitions among them and likely triggers, (3) Validate the STM by verifying the existence of its states to the greatest degree possible, (4) Use the STM model to identify transitions and triggers likely to be detectable by a monitoring program, and estimate to the greatest degree possible the value of a measurable indicator of a trigger at the point that a state transition is imminent (tipping point), and values that may indicate when management intervention should be considered (assessment points). We illustrate two different methods for attaining these goals using a data-rich case study in Canyonlands National Park, and a data-poor case study in Wupatki National Monument. In the data-rich case, STMs are validated and revised, and tipping and assessment points are estimated using statistical analysis of data. In the data-poor case, we develop an iterative expert opinion survey approach to validate the degree of confidence in an STM, revise the model, identify lack of confidence in specific model components, and create reasonable first approximations of tipping and assessment points, which can later be refined when more data are available. Our goal should be to develop the best set of models possible given the level of information available to support decisions, which is often not much. The approach presented here offers a flexible means of achieving this goal, and determining specific research areas in need of study.

Book chapter↗

Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential

In the past decade, there has been a growing interest of dam safety officials to incorporate a risk‐based analysis for design‐flood hydrology. Extreme or rare floods, with probabilities in the range of about 10 −3 to 10 −7 chance of occurrence per year, are of continuing interest to the hydrologic and engineering communities for purposes of planning and design of structures such as dams [ National Research Council , 1988]. The National Research Council stresses that as much information as possible about floods needs to be used for evaluation of the risk and consequences of any decision. A regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach was developed to assist dam safety officials and floodplain managers in their assessments of the risk of large floods. The interdisciplinary components included documenting maximum paleofloods and a regional analyses of contemporary extreme rainfall and flood data to complement a site‐specific probable maximum precipitation study [ Tomlinson and Solak , 1997]. The cost‐effective approach, which can be used in many other hydrometeorologic settings, was applied to Elkhead Reservoir in Elkhead Creek (531 km 2 ) in northwestern Colorado; the regional study area was 10,900 km 2 . Paleoflood data using bouldery flood deposits and noninundation surfaces for 88 streams were used to document maximum flood discharges that have occurred during the Holocene. Several relative dating methods were used to determine the age of paleoflood deposits and noninundation surfaces. No evidence of substantial flooding was found in the study area. The maximum paleoflood of 135 m 3 s −1 for Elkhead Creek is about 13% of the site‐specific probable maximum flood of 1020 m 3 s −1 . Flood‐frequency relations using the expected moments algorithm, which better incorporates paleoflood data, were developed to assess the risk of extreme floods. Envelope curves encompassing maximum rainfall (181 sites) and floods (218 sites) were developed for northwestern Colorado to help define maximum contemporary and Holocene flooding in Elkhead Creek and in a regional frequency context. Study results for Elkhead Reservoir were accepted by the Colorado State Engineer for dam safety certification.

Water Resources Research↗

Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

Geological Society of London Special Publications↗

Rapidly assessing social characteristics of drought preparedness and decision making: A guide for practitioners

Executive Summary This guide is intended to provide managers, decision makers, and other practitioners with advice on conducting a rapid assessment of the social dimensions of drought. Findings from a rapid assessment can provide key social context that may aid in decision making, such as when preparing a drought plan, allocating local drought resilience funding, or gathering the support of local agencies and organizations for collective action related to drought mitigation. Part I —In the introduction to Part I, we describe the unique problems associated with drought—particularly its slow onset and long duration, which make it difficult to define drought—and highlight five major types of drought (see Box 1). We introduce a few social dimensions of drought (such as economic and institutional perspectives), demonstrate how these dimensions can be interrelated, and describe a few of the modern challenges (such as transformational change and cascading risks) that practitioners face. We also provide background on the rapid assessment method, first describing it as a “snapshot” of the social landscape, then providing some key advantages of the method (it can be quicker and cheaper than more in-depth methods), and lastly describing how secondary data and other methods can help overcome some of the disadvantages of rapid assessments. Then, after summarizing the process of developing this guide, we outline the process of using the guide. Importantly, we compare the guide to a travel guide, which provides many different types of information and is best approached with specific interests in mind. Ultimately, we hope for this guide to be malleable enough that it can be helpful to researchers and practitioners in many different contexts, using many different research methods. Related to how to use the guide, we characterize the type of person who might be motivated to use this guide. We also specify key qualifications for a researcher conducting a rapid assessment, drawing particular attention to training on ethical considerations. We sketch out key considerations when choosing social dimensions of drought to focus on, and the type of data used for analysis. First, it is important to note that in this guide we provide nine important social dimensions of drought, but this is by no means a comprehensive list, and a researcher may find that other dimensions better fit their local context. Second, we provide some pros and cons to a narrow (focusing on just a few dimensions or at a smaller scale) versus broad research focus. Lastly, we describe the pros and cons of using primary versus secondary data (one strategy is to use both, sequentially) and qualitative versus quantitative data. Ultimately, Part I of this guide functions as an exploration of the various decisions a researcher will make when designing a rapid assessment. These decisions will inform the type of findings and other outcomes that result from the rapid assessment. Part II —Part II of this guide introduces nine key social dimensions of drought: defining the problem of drought, individual perceptions, social relationships, technology, economics and livelihoods, water governance, decision making, information, and social vulnerability. Each section provides background and key considerations related to a particular dimension, as well as ideas for how to explore the dimension via a rapid assessment. Part III —Part III of this guide provides two hypothetical examples of how one might use this guide to aid the practitioner in implementing the lessons learned here. In the first example, a watershed group uses two dimensions, defining the problem of drought and social relationships, to inform a community meeting about protecting fisheries from drought. In the second example, a resource manager uses the economics and livelihoods and social vulnerability dimensions to inform the development of a livestock grazing drought management plan.

Techniques and Methods↗

Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012

In 2012, a late season tropical depression developed into a tropical storm and later a hurricane. The hurricane, named “Hurricane Sandy,” gained strength to a Category 3 storm on October 25, 2012, and underwent several transitions on its approach to the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern coast of the United States. By October 28, 2012, Hurricane Sandy had strengthened into the largest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic and was tracking parallel to the east coast of United States, heading toward New Jersey. On October 29, 2012, the storm turned west-northwest and made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. The high winds and wind-driven storm surge caused massive damage along the entire coastline of New Jersey. Millions of people were left without power or communication networks. Many homes were completely destroyed. Sand dunes were eroded, and the barrier island at Mantoloking was breached, connecting the ocean with Barnegat Bay. Several days before the storm made landfall in New Jersey, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) made a decision to deploy a temporary network of storm-tide sensors and barometric pressure sensors from Virginia to Maine to supplement the existing USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent tide monitoring stations. After the storm made landfall, the USGS conducted a sensor data recovery and high-water-mark collection campaign in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Peak storm-tide elevations documented at USGS tide gages, tidal crest-stage gages, temporary storm sensor locations, and high-water-mark sites indicate the area from southern Monmouth County, N.J., north through Raritan Bay, N.J., had the highest peak storm-tide elevations during this storm. The USGS tide gages at Raritan River at South Amboy and Raritan Bay at Keansburg, part of the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System, each recorded peak storm-tide elevations of greater than 13 feet (ft)—more than 5 ft higher than the previously recorded period-of-record maximum. A comparison of peak storm-tide elevations to preliminary FEMA Coastal Flood Insurance Study flood elevations indicated that these areas experienced the highest recurrence intervals along the coast of New Jersey. Analysis showed peak storm-tide elevations exceeded the 100-year FEMA flood elevations in many parts of Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, and Bergen Counties, and peak storm-tide elevations at many locations in Monmouth County exceeded the 500-year recurrence interval. A level 1 HAZUS (HAZards United States) analysis was done for the counties in New Jersey affected by flooding to estimate total building stock losses. The aggregated total building stock losses estimated by HAZUS for New Jersey, on the basis of the final inundation verified by USGS high-water marks, was almost $19 billion. A comparison of Hurricane Sandy with historic coastal storms showed that peak storm-tide elevations associated with Hurricane Sandy exceeded most of the previously documented elevations associated with the storms of December 1992, March 1962, September 1960, and September 1944 at many coastal communities in New Jersey. This scientific investigation report was prepared in cooperation with FEMA to document flood processes and flood damages resulting from this storm and to assist in future flood mitigation actions in New Jersey.

New Jersey↗

Physical deposit measures and commercial potential: The case of titanium-bearing heavy-mineral deposits

Physical measures of mineral deposit characteristics, such as grade and tonnage, long have been used in both subjective and analytic models to predict favorability of areas for the occurrence of mineral deposits of particular types. After a deposit has been identified, however, the explorationist must decide whether to continue data collection, begin an economic feasibility study, or abandon the prospect. The decision maker can estimate the probability that a deposit will be commercial by examining physical measures. The amount of sampling data required before such a probability estimate can be considered reliable can be determined. A logit probability model estimated from onshore titanium-bearing heavy-mineral deposit data identifies and quantifies the relative influence of a deposit's physical measures on the chances of the deposit becoming commercial. A principal conclusion that can be drawn from the analysis is that, along with a measure of deposit size, the characteristics most important in predicting commercial potential are grades of the constituent minerals. Total heavy-mineral-bearing sand grade or even total titanium grade (without data on constituent mineral grades) are poor predictors of the deposit's commercial potential. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Mathematical Geology↗

Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge: A survey of visitor experiences: Report to respondents

In the fall of 2000, researchers from the Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Program (PASA) of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) met with the staff of the Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge (CPNWR) to discuss the issues related to social, economic, and human dimensions of natural resource management as it related to the Comprehensive Conservation Plan (CCP) planning process. As a result of the meeting a research study was designed to better understand how visitors are affected by environmental management decisions and provide information to assist the refuge managers in making decisions regarding public use and recreational management related to the goals of the proposed CCP. More specifically, information was collected to document the type and frequency of visitor use; assess the importance of recreational activities; and to determine visitor attitudes about recreation management decisions within the refuge. To this end, we designed a study to assess the effects of the no-action and alternative management plans for the Refuge visitors’ perceptions and likely visitation patterns. In fall of 2002 a questionnaire was developed in collaboration with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the CCP planning team and mailed to 1090 people who visited the refuge between June 2001 and June 2002. We used standard research methods in designing and administering the questionnaire. Six hundred and eightyfive (685) completed questionnaires (74%) were considered usable. We developed the questionnaire (OMB Control Number 1040-00) to answer the following questions: What are the important differences in visitors’ attitudes and perception regarding recreation and visitor use at CPNWR? What are the factors that explain the differences in visitor attitudes and perception regarding recreation and visitor use at CPNWR? What are the regional economic impacts of visitor spending? In general the respondents indicated support for current management practices of CPNWR. We found that people came to the Refuge to experience a connection with the resource and the environment. More than half of the respondents said that viewing the desert scenery, seeking wilderness solitude and viewing wildlife were the most important reasons for making the visit to the refuge.

Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge↗

Historical analysis of riparian vegetation change in response to shifting management objectives on the Middle Rio Grande

Riparian ecosystems are valuable to the ecological and human communities that depend on them. Over the past century, they have been subject to shifting management practices to maximize human use and ecosystem services, creating a complex relationship between water policy, management, and the natural ecosystem. This has necessitated research on the spatial and temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation change. The San Acacia Reach of the Middle Rio Grande has experienced multiple management and river flow fluctuations, resulting in threats to its riparian and aquatic ecosystems. This research uses remote sensing data, GIS, a review of management decisions, and an assessment of climate to both quantify how riparian vegetation has been altered over time and provide interpretations of the relationships between riparian change and shifting climate and management objectives. This research focused on four management phases from 1935 to 2014, each highlighting different management practices and climate-driven river patterns, providing unique opportunities to observe a direct relationship between river management, climate, and riparian response. Overall, we believe that management practices coupled with reduced surface river-flows with limited overbank flooding influenced the compositional and spatial patterns of vegetation, including possibly increasing non-native vegetation coverage. However, recent restoration efforts have begun to reduce non-native vegetation coverage.

New Mexico↗

Linking environmental variability to long-term demographic change of an endangered species using integrated population models

Understanding how species populations change with environmental conditions is important for implementing effective habitat management and conservation strategies. Challenges to evaluating population-level responses to environmental conditions arise when data are sparse or not spatiotemporally aligned, especially for at-risk species with small, declining numbers. We synthesized 30 years (1992–2021) of three partially aligned data sets to build a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) and evaluate demographic and environmental drivers of growth rates for six separately managed ‘subpopulations’ (A–F) of the federally endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow endemic to the Florida Everglades. We found that juvenile survival peaked at inundation periods (hydroperiods) around 100–220 days and dropped sharply outside those values, while adult survival increased with longer periods of water depth <20 cm, but not with longer periods of water depth >20 cm. Fecundity increased when water depths were more stable, more area was dry, intervals between fires were longer and less area was burned. Changes in population growth rates tended to occur in years that juvenile and adult survival were associated with hydroperiod, especially in the two largest subpopulations B and E. Population growth rates were also associated with hydrologic conditions during the breeding season and fire dynamics through changes in fecundity, most notably in the smaller subpopulations A, C/F and D. Synthesis and applications . Our IPM represents the first long-term population analysis of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow connecting demographic processes to environmental factors. Our results suggest that sustaining periods of shallow water year-round may enhance Cape Sable seaside sparrow survival and population growth. Also, limiting water depth variability and maintaining dry conditions during the breeding season and inhibiting fires in consecutive years may increase fecundity and population growth. Identifying the mechanistic links between environmental and population dynamics could inform how species are expected to respond to management decisions and anticipated ecosystem changes.

Florida↗

Coastal Louisiana ecosystem assessment and restoration program: The role of ecosystem forecasting in evaluating restoration planning in the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain

The development of ecosystem management plans to restore and rehabilitate natural resources requires an understanding of how specific ecological mechanisms regulate the structure and function of ecosystems. To achieve restoration goals, comprehensive plans and engineering designs must effectively change environmental drivers at the regional level to reduce stress conditions at the local environment that are responsible for ecosystem degradation. This document focuses on the Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) ecosystem forecasting framework and how it can be used to support the analysis of Louisiana’s coastal restoration plans. Specifically, the framework is designed to (1) develop and incorporate conceptual ecological models that can be used to integrate ecological needs and opportunities with engineering designs, (2) utilize wetland loss rates to describe the most likely “future without” scenario for a variety of ecosystem attributes, (3) estimate broad ecosystem responses to restoration alternatives based on processes associated with succession of geomorphic and ecological systems, and (4) calculate ecological benefits for incorporation into decision support tools associated with large-scale geomorphic and hydrologic processes. This paper provides a brief overview of the spatial framework and modular design of the CLEAR ecosystem forecasting framework and describes in greater detail the evolution of the landscape change module, concepts for its refinement, and how it was utilized in evaluating a coastal restoration alternative proposed in the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority Preliminary Draft Master Plan. Such projections by the CLEAR forecasting framework can evaluate processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems with habitat functions that support higher trophic levels.

Louisiana↗

Bayesian belief network model to predict human-wildlife conflict in protected areas

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) poses a pervasive global challenge, affecting livelihoods and threatening biodiversity. To better anticipate and mitigate HWC risk, we developed a large-scale predictive model using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). We surveyed 1,011 park rangers across 135 terrestrial protected areas in three Andean countries, documenting recent HWC incidents involving wildlife persecution or killing, livestock depredation, crop damage, or threats to human safety and property. We identified key drivers of HWC risk, including governance, wildlife acceptance, participation, and habitat quality. A sensitivity analysis revealed that enhancing governance and improving wildlife acceptance could reduce HWC risk by > 85%. The BBN model demonstrated scalability, effectively identifying strategies to reduce HWC risk at multiple scales, from individual protected areas to national networks. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening governance, increasing wildlife acceptance, and enhancing community participation in conservation efforts. BBNs provide a flexible, cost-effective, and data-driven tool to guide protected areas and wildlife managers in monitoring, anticipating, and making informed decisions to mitigate conflict and promote coexistence.

Scientific Reports↗