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USGS1978

Clarence Allen talks about the responsibilities in earthquake prediction

Dr. Clarence R. Allen is professor of geology and geophysics at the California Institute of Technology. He has been a member of advisory panels to the Executive Office of the President, National Academy of Sciences, National Science Foundation, U.S Geological Survey, UNESCO, California State Mining and Geology Board, and the California Department of Water Resources. Dr. Allen has been President of both the Geological Society of America and the Seismological Society of America (SSA). The title of this interview is based on his presidential address to the SSA in 1976.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

USGS2020

Spectral inversion for seismic site response in central Oklahoma: Low-frequency resonances from the Great Unconformity

We investigate seismic site response by inverting seismic ground‐motion spectra for site and source spectral properties, in a region of central Oklahoma, where previous ground‐motion studies have indicated discrepancies between observations and ground‐motion models (GMMs). The inversion is constrained by a source spectral model, which we computed from regional seismic records, using aftershocks as empirical Green’s functions to deconvolve site and path effects. Site spectra across the region exhibit multiple, strong, low‐frequency ( ⁠ f <2 Hz ⁠ ) resonances. Modeling of vertically propagating SH waves reproduces the mean amplitudes and frequencies of the site spectra and requires a deep ( ⁠ ∼1–2 km ⁠ ) impedance contrast. Comparison of regional seismic velocity models and geologic profiles indicates that the seismic impedance contrast is, or is in proximity to, the Great Unconformity, which marks the interface between Precambrian basement rocks and overlying Paleozoic sedimentary rocks. Depth to Precambrian basement increases to the southwest across the study region ( ⁠ ∼1500–4500 m ⁠ ), and the fundamental frequencies of the site spectra are anticorrelated with basement depth. The first higher‐mode resonance also exhibits dependence on basement depth; although modeling suggests that the second higher mode should depend on basement depth, site spectra do not support this. The low‐frequency resonances in central Oklahoma are not represented in the GMMs used in current seismic hazard analyses for tectonic earthquakes, though approaches to account for such features are under consideration in other regions of the central and eastern United States. Given the broad spatial extent of the Great Unconformity underlying eastern North America, it is likely that similar effects on seismic site response also occur in other areas. This study highlights the impact of regional geologic structure on earthquake ground motions and reiterates the need for modeling regional effects to improve ground‐motion predictions and seismic hazard assessments.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2022

Shallow faulting and folding in the epicentral area of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake

The moment magnitude ( ⁠ M w "> M w �w ⁠ ) ∼7 earthquake that struck Charleston, South Carolina, on 31 August 1886 is the largest historical earthquake in the United States east of the Appalachian Mountains. The fault(s) that ruptured during this earthquake has never been conclusively identified, and conflicting fault models have been proposed. Here we interpret reprocessed seismic reflection profiles, reprocessed legacy aeromagnetic data, and newly collected ground penetrating radar (GPR) profiles to delineate faults deforming the Cretaceous and younger Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) strata in the epicentral area of the 1886 earthquake. The data show evidence for faults folding or vertically displacing ACP strata, including apparent displacements of near‐surface strata (upper ∼20 m). Aeromagnetic data show several northeast (NE)‐trending lineaments, two of which correlate with faults and folds with vertical displacements as great as 55 m on the seismic reflection and radar profiles. ACP strata show only minor thickness changes across these structures, indicating that much of the displacement postdates the shallowest well‐imaged ACP strata of Eocene age. Faults imaged on the seismic reflection profiles appear on GPR profiles to displace the erosional surface at the top of the upper Eocene to Oligocene Cooper Group, including where railroad tracks were bent during the 1886 earthquake. Some faults coincide with changes in river trends, bifurcations of river channels, and unusual river meanders that could be related to recent fault motion. In contrast to our interpreted NE fault trends, earthquake locations and some focal mechanisms in the modern seismic zone have been interpreted as defining a nearly north‐striking, west‐dipping zone of aftershocks from the 1886 earthquake. The relationship between the modern seismicity and the faults we image is therefore enigmatic. However, multiple faults in the area clearly have been active since the Eocene and deform strata in the upper 20 m, providing potential targets for field‐based geologic investigations.

South Carolina↗

USGS2004

Observed and simulated ground motions in the San Bernardino basin region for the Hector Mine, California, earthquake

During the MW 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake, peak ground velocities recorded at sites in the central San Bernardino basin region were up to 2 times larger and had significantly longer durations of strong shaking than sites just outside the basin. To better understand the effects of 3D structure on the long-period ground-motion response in this region, we have performed finite-difference simulations for this earthquake. The simulations are numerically accurate for periods of 2 sec and longer and incorporate the detailed spatial and temporal heterogeneity of source rupture, as well as complex 3D basin structure. Here, we analyze three models of the San Bernardino basin: model A (with structural constraints from gravity and seismic reflection data), model F (water well and seismic refraction data), and the Southern California Earthquake Center version 3 model (hydrologic and seismic refraction data). Models A and F are characterized by a gradual increase in sediment thickness toward the south with an abrupt step-up in the basement surface across the San Jacinto fault. The basin structure in the SCEC version 3 model has a nearly uniform sediment thickness of 1 km with little basement topography along the San Jacinto fault. In models A and F, we impose a layered velocity structure within the sediments based on the seismic refraction data and an assumed depth-dependent Vp/Vs ratio. Sediment velocities within the SCEC version 3 model are given by a smoothly varying rule-based function that is calibrated to the seismic refraction measurements. Due to computational limitations, the minimum shear-wave velocity is fixed at 600 m/sec in all of the models. Ground-motion simulations for both models A and F provide a reasonably good match to the amplitude and waveform characteristics of the recorded motions. In these models, surface waves are generated as energy enters the basin through the gradually sloping northern margin. Due to the basement step along the San Jacinto fault, the surface wave energy is confined to the region north of this structure, consistent with the observations. The SCEC version 3 model, lacking the basin geometry complexity present in the other two models, fails to provide a satisfactory match to the characteristics of the observed motions. Our study demonstrates the importance of using detailed and accurate basin geometry for predicting ground motions and also highlights the utility of integrating geological, geophysical, and seismological observations in the development and validation of 3D velocity models.

California↗

USGS2005

Coal-mining seismicity and ground-shaking hazard: A case study in the Trail Mountain area, Emery County, Utah

We describe a multipart study to quantify the potential ground-shaking hazard to Joes Valley Dam, a 58-m-high earthfill dam, posed by mining-induced seismicity (MIS) from future underground coal mining, which could approach as close as ???1 km to the dam. To characterize future MIS close to the dam, we studied MIS located ???3-7 km from the dam at the Trail Mountain coal mine. A 12-station local seismic network (11 stations above ground, one below, combining eight triaxial accelerometers and varied velocity sensors) was operated in the Trail Mountain area from late 2000 through mid-2001 for the dual purpose of (1) continuously monitoring and locating MIS associated with longwall mining at a depth of 0.5-0.6 km and (2) recording high-quality data to develop ground-motion prediction equations for the shallow MIS. (Ground-motion attenuation relationships and moment-tensor results are reported in companion articles.) Utilizing a data set of 1913 earthquakes (M ??? 2.2), we describe space-time-magnitude distributions of the observed MIS and source-mechanism information. The MIS was highly correlated with mining activity both in space and time. Most of the better-located events have depths constrained within ??0.6 km of mine level. For the preponderance (98%) of the 1913 located events, only dilatational P-wave first motions were observed, consistent with other evidence for implosive or collapse-type mechanisms associated with coal mining in this region. We assess a probable maximum magnitude of M 3.9 (84th percentile of a cumulative distribution) for potential MIS close to Joes Valley Dam based on both the worldwide and regional record of coal-mining-related MIS and the local geology and future mining scenarios.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2021

Evaluating spectral ratio methods for characterizing fundamental resonance peaks on flat sediments: An example from the Atlantic Coastal Plain, Eastern United States

Damaging ground motions from the 2011 M w "> M w 5.8 Virginia earthquake were likely increased due to site amplification from the unconsolidated sediments of the Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP), highlighting the need to understand site response on these widespread strata along the coastal regions of the eastern United States. The horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method, using either earthquake signals or ambient noise as input, offers an appealing method for measuring site response on laterally extensive sediments, because it requires a single seismometer rather than requiring a nearby bedrock site to compute a horizontal sediment‐to‐bedrock spectral ratio (SBSR). Although previous studies show mixed results when comparing the two methods, the majority of these studies investigated site responses in confined sedimentary basins that can generate substantial 3D effects or have relatively small reflection coefficients at their base. In contrast, the flat‐lying ACP strata and the underlying bedrock reflector should cause 1D resonance effects to dominate site response, with amplification of the fundamental resonance peaks controlled by the strong impedance contrast between the base of the sediments and the underlying bedrock. We compare site‐response estimates on the ACP strata derived using the HVSR and SBSR methods from teleseismic signals recorded by regional arrays and observe a close match in the frequencies of the fundamental resonance peak ( ⁠ f 0 "> f 0 ⁠ ) determined by both methods. We find that correcting the HVSR amplitude using source term information from a bedrock site and multiplying the peak by a factor of 1.2 results in amplitude peaks that, on average, match SBSR results within a factor of 2. We therefore conclude that the HVSR method may successfully estimate regional linear weak‐motion site‐response amplifications from the ACP, or similar geologic environments, when appropriate region‐specific corrections to the amplitude ratios are used.

Atlantic Coastal Plain↗

USGS2012

Estimating pole/zero errors in GSN-IRIS/USGS network calibration metadata

Mapping the digital record of a seismograph into true ground motion requires the correction of the data by some description of the instrument's response. For the Global Seismographic Network (Butler et al., 2004), as well as many other networks, this instrument response is represented as a Laplace domain pole–zero model and published in the Standard for the Exchange of Earthquake Data (SEED) format. This Laplace representation assumes that the seismometer behaves as a linear system, with any abrupt changes described adequately via multiple time-invariant epochs. The SEED format allows for published instrument response errors as well, but these typically have not been estimated or provided to users. We present an iterative three-step method to estimate the instrument response parameters (poles and zeros) and their associated errors using random calibration signals. First, we solve a coarse nonlinear inverse problem using a least-squares grid search to yield a first approximation to the solution. This approach reduces the likelihood of poorly estimated parameters (a local-minimum solution) caused by noise in the calibration records and enhances algorithm convergence. Second, we iteratively solve a nonlinear parameter estimation problem to obtain the least-squares best-fit Laplace pole–zero–gain model. Third, by applying the central limit theorem, we estimate the errors in this pole–zero model by solving the inverse problem at each frequency in a two-thirds octave band centered at each best-fit pole–zero frequency. This procedure yields error estimates of the 99% confidence interval. We demonstrate the method by applying it to a number of recent Incorporated Research Institutions in Seismology/United States Geological Survey (IRIS/USGS) network calibrations (network code IU).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2009

Earthquake stress drops and inferred fault strength on the Hayward Fault, east San Francisco Bay, California

We study variations in earthquake stress drop with respect to depth, faulting regime, creeping versus locked fault behavior, and wall-rock geology. We use the P-wave displacement spectra from borehole seismic recordings of M 1.0-4.2 earthquakes in the east San Francisco Bay to estimate stress drop using a stack-and-invert empirical Green's function method. The median stress drop is 8.7 MPa, and most stress drops are in the range between 0.4 and 130 MPa. An apparent correlation between stress drop and magnitude is entirely an artifact of the limited frequency band of 4-55 Hz. There is a trend of increasing stress drop with depth, with a median stress drop of ~5 MPa for 1-7 km depth, ~10 MPa for 7-13 km depth, and ~50 MPa deeper than 13 km. We use S=P amplitude ratios measured from the borehole records to better constrain the first-motion focal mechanisms. High stress drops are observed for a deep cluster of thrust-faulting earthquakes. The correlation of stress drops with depth and faulting regime implies that stress drop is related to the applied shear stress. We compare the spatial distribution of stress drops on the Hayward fault to a model of creeping versus locked behavior of the fault and find that high stress drops are concentrated around the major locked patch near Oakland. This also suggests a connection between stress drop and applied shear stress, as the locked patch may experience higher applied shear stress as a result of the difference in cumulative slip or the presence of higher-strength material. The stress drops do not directly correlate with the strength of the proposed wall-rock geology at depth, suggesting that the relationship between fault strength and the strength of the wall rock is complex.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2013

Conditional spectrum computation incorporating multiple causal earthquakes and ground-motion prediction models

The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all earthquake scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) and seismic source models. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single earthquake scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal earthquakes and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal earthquake and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are performed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some insights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2020

Repeatable source, path, and site effects from the 2019 Ridgecrest M7.1 earthquake sequence

We use a large instrumental dataset from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence ( Rekoske et al. , 2019 , 2020 ) to examine repeatable source‐, path‐, and site‐specific ground motions. A mixed‐effects analysis is used to partition total residuals relative to the Boore et al. (2014 ; hereafter, BSSA14) ground‐motion model. We calculate the Arias intensity stress drop for the earthquakes and find strong correlation with our event terms, indicating that they are consistent with source processes. We look for physically meaningful trends in the partitioned residuals and test the ability of BSSA14 to capture the behavior we observe in the data. We find that BSSA14 is a good match to the median observations for M > 4 "> M > 4 M>4 ⁠ . However, we find bias for individual events, especially those with small magnitude and hypocentral depth ≥ 7    km "> depth ≥ 7 km depth≥7 km ⁠ , for which peak ground acceleration is underpredicted by a factor of 2.5. Although the site amplification term captures the median site response when all sites are considered together, it does not capture variations at individual stations across a range of site conditions. We find strong basin amplification in the Los Angeles, Ventura, and San Gabriel basins. We find weak amplification in the San Bernardino basin, which is contrary to simulation‐based findings showing a channeling effect from an event with a north–south azimuth. This and an additional set of ground motions from earthquakes southwest of Los Angeles suggest that there is an azimuth‐dependent southern California basin response related to the orientation of regional structures when ground motion from waves traveling south–north are compared with those in the east–west direction. These findings exhibit the power of large, spatially dense ground‐motion datasets and make clear that nonergodic models are a way to reduce bias and uncertainty in ground‐motion estimation for applications like the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model and the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning System.

California↗

USGS1968

Earthquake of August 19, 1966, Varto Area, eastern Turkey

The earthquake of August 19, 1966, centered near Varto in eastern Turkey. It occurred at 12:22:09.6 G. M. T. and had a Richter magnitude of about 7. Intensities reached IX. Reportedly, 2,529 people were killed, 1,500 injured, and 19,013 buildings were demolished or heavily damaged. Surface fractures in three parallel fracture zones trending N65-70°W display both right-lateral strike slip and extension normal to the fractures. The trend and sense of displacement relate the fracturing to the North Anatolia fault system. Examples of geologic factors influencing damage include: (1) degree of saturation of the alluvium, (2) proximity to landslides, and (3) relation to surface faulting.

Near Varto in eastern Turkey↗

USGS2012

Extraordinary distance limits of landslides triggered by the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake

The 23 August 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake (M w 5.8) was the largest to strike the eastern U.S. since 1897 and was felt over an extraordinarily large area. Although no large landslides occurred, the shaking did trigger many rock and soil falls from steep river banks and natural cliffs in the epicentral area and from steep road cuts along, and northwest of, the Blue Ridge Parkway. We mapped the occurrence of rock falls to determine distance limits that could be compared with those from other documented earthquakes. Studies of previous earthquakes indicated a maximum epicentral distance limit for landsliding of ~60 km for an M 5.8 earthquake; the maximum distance limit for the 2011 earthquake was 245 km, the largest exceedance of the historical limit ever recorded. Likewise, the previous maximum area affected by landslides for this magnitude was 1500 km 2 ; the area affected by landslides in the 2011 earthquake was 33,400 km 2 . These observations provide physical evidence that attenuation of strong shaking for eastern U.S. earthquakes is significantly lower than for plate‐boundary earthquakes. Also, distance limits parallel to the regional structural trend are greater than those that transect the structure, which suggests anisotropic attenuation related to the regional geologic structure. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the landslide distance limits is estimated to have been about 0.02–0.04g.

Virginia↗

USGS2000

High-resolution seismic reflection surveys and modeling across an area of high damage from the 1994 Northridge earthquake, Sherman Oaks, California

Approximately 3.6 km of P-wave seismic-reflection data were acquired along two orthogonal profiles in Sherman Oaks, California to determine whether shallow (less than 1-km depth) geologic structures contributed to the dramatic localized damage resulting from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Both lines, one along Matilija Avenue and one along Milbank Street, crossed areas of both high and low damage. We believe these data reveal a geologic structure in the upper 600 m that contributed to the increased earthquake ground shaking in the high-damage areas south of and along the Los Angeles River. Of interest in these data is a reflection interpreted to be from bedrock that can be traced to the north along the Matilija Avenue profile. This reflecting interface, dipping northward at 15°–22°, may be an important impedance boundary because it is the lower boundary of a wedge of overlying low-velocity sediments. The wedge thins and terminates in the area where we interpret down-warped reflections as evidence of a shallow subbasin. The low-velocity subbasin sediments (V s of 200 m/sec V p of 500 m/sec) may be up to 150 m thick beneath the channelized Los Angeles River. The area across the subbasin experienced greater earthquake damage from possible geometric focusing effects. Three-dimensional basin effects may be responsible for the variable damage pattern, but from these seismic profiles it is not possible to determine the regional structural trends. Two-dimensional elastic and SH-mode finite-difference modeling of the imaged structural geometry along Matilija Avenue suggests that a peak horizontal-velocity amplification factor of two-and-over can be explained in the high-damage area above the shallow subbasin and sediment wedge. Amplification factors up to 5 were previously observed in aftershock data, at frequencies of 2 to 6 Hz. Amplification in the elastic simulation at the Santa Monica Mountains range-front on the southern end of the Matilija profile, with the geologic layering and geometry interpreted from the seismic data, is also consistent with aftershock observations.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

Long-term afterslip of the M6.0, 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake—Implications for forecasting amount and duration of afterslip on other major creeping faults

We present the longest record of surface afterslip on a continental strike‐slip fault for the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake, from which we can derive critical information about the duration and predictability of afterslip relevant to urban displacement hazard applications. Surface slip associated with this event occurred entirely postseismically along the interseismically creeping (0.6–1.5 cm/yr) main trace of the San Andreas fault. Using the first year of afterslip data, the program AFTER correctly predicted the cumulative surface afterslip (maximum ∼35 cm) eventually attained. By 1 yr postearthquake, observed afterslip had accumulated to only ∼74% of its modeled final value u f in units of length. The 6‐yr data suggested final slip would be reached everywhere by ∼6–12 yrs. Parkfield’s afterslip lasted much longer (∼6–12 yrs) than afterslip following a 2014 M 6.0 event in Napa, California, where no interseismic creep was known, and its afterslip neared completion (∼97% of u f ) by 1 yr. The uncertainty in u f for the Napa event fell to ≤2 cm in only three months, versus in 2 yrs for the Parkfield event, mostly because duration of the power‐law stage of afterslip at Parkfield is much longer, ∼1000 (493–1666) days versus ∼100 (35–421) days for Napa. Because the urban Hayward fault near San Francisco, California, like the Parkfield section, exhibits interseismic creep in a similar geological regime, significant afterslip might last for up to a decade following an anticipated M ≥6.7 earthquake, potentially delaying postearthquake recovery.

California↗

USGS2003

Association of earthquakes and faults in the San Francisco Bay area using Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference provides a method to use seismic intensity data or instrumental locations, together with geologic and seismologic data, to make quantitative estimates of the probabilities that specific past earthquakes are associated with specific faults. Probability density functions are constructed for the location of each earthquake, and these are combined with prior probabilities through Bayes' theorem to estimate the probability that an earthquake is associated with a specific fault. Results using this method are presented here for large, preinstrumental, historical earthquakes and for recent earthquakes with instrumental locations in the San Francisco Bay region. The probabilities for individual earthquakes can be summed to construct a probabilistic frequency–magnitude relationship for a fault segment. Other applications of the technique include the estimation of the probability of background earthquakes, that is, earthquakes not associated with known or considered faults, and the estimation of the fraction of the total seismic moment associated with earthquakes less than the characteristic magnitude. Results for the San Francisco Bay region suggest that potentially damaging earthquakes with magnitudes less than the characteristic magnitudes should be expected. Comparisons of earthquake locations and the surface traces of active faults as determined from geologic data show significant disparities, indicating that a complete understanding of the relationship between earthquakes and faults remains elusive.

California↗

USGS2025

Capturing the uncertainty of seismicity observations in earthquake rate estimates: Implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model

The rate of earthquakes in a region is a fundamental input to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. We present a Monte Carlo method for computing that rate from seismicity catalogs while including a range of data and analysis uncertainties. This method is applied to regions for which the b value is assumed to be spatially invariant. Each region is broken down into epochs for which each epoch is estimated to have a uniform magnitude of completeness ( ⁠⁠ M c ). The distribution of earthquake rates for M ≥ M c is determined for each epoch by considering the Poisson likelihood of rates given the number of observed earthquakes with M ≥ M c ⁠ . We use a Monte Carlo process to include the uncertainty in b , ⁠ M c , and individual event magnitudes. The result for each epoch is the joint distribution of the Poisson rate of earthquakes with magnitudes larger than the minimum value used to calculate hazard ( ⁠⁠ M 1 ) and the Gutenberg–Richter b values, which control the extrapolation to other magnitudes. The rate for each region is either the duration‐weighted average over the epochs or, to better capture temporal variations, we also consider mixture models. The mixture models also provide an avenue to allow temporal variations in b values. To implement this joint distribution in a logic tree, we use the mean and 95% confidence branches, each of which is parameterized with an M ≥ M 1 rate and b value. We explore different ways of defining those branches, as well as non‐Gutenberg–Richter branches, and their impact on hazard estimates. The mean hazard, but not the fractiles, is robust with respect to these choices. To illustrate these new methods, we use synthetic data and catalogs from recent U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models for the Central and Eastern United States and for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

central and eastern United States, Puerto Rico, U.↗

USGS2025

Seismic response of rock towers at the Trona Pinnacles (U.S.A.) to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence: Theory, observations, and models

We analyze the seismic response of a class of fragile geologic features (FGFs), referred to as rock towers (RTs) at the Trona Pinnacles, a group of RTs in southern California that suffered strong shaking during the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. FGFs, including RTs, may provide maximum constraints on past earthquake shaking intensity, and thereby support probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs). In a rare case study, we explore the hypothesis that RT structural integrity is time dependent, as damage accumulates progressively. We develop finite‐element method (FEM) models of the RTs using photogrammetric shape models. We validate the models by comparing numerical simulations of their response to broadband ground shaking with low‐intensity seismic recordings obtained at the Pinnacles. Results of our simulations are in good agreement with the seismic recordings of actual earthquake aftershocks. We next use the results of the FEM models to analyze the response and evolution of RTs. Our analyses elucidate the influence of geometry over their seismic response, providing a rationale that may explain the rarity of slender RTs at Trona: high‐aspect‐ratio structures that respond in bending develop detrimental tensile stresses that crack the rock, whereas low‐aspect‐ratio ones’ response also includes shearing, which does not compromise material integrity as much as tension. Field measurements with a rebound hammer support this finding, suggesting that the material around the base of slender rocks has been weakened relative to other parts of the RT. We also study how to define simplified mechanical models (“archetypes”) to predict the natural frequencies of RTs. Results from our work illuminate the fundamental mechanisms of seismic response and progressive failure of RTs, and open new avenues of research to potentially incorporate these geologic features as long‐return period constraints on PSHA, in ways analogous to those of the widely used precariously balanced rocks.

California↗

USGS2014

Frequency-dependent seismic attenuation in the eastern United States as observed from the 2011 central Virginia earthquake and aftershock sequence

Ground shaking due to earthquakes in the eastern United States (EUS) is felt at significantly greater distances than in the western United States (WUS) and for some earthquakes it has been shown to display a strong preferential direction. Shaking intensity variation can be due to propagation path effects, source directivity, and/or site amplification. In this paper, we use S and Lg waves recorded from the 2011 central Virginia earthquake and aftershock sequence, in the Central Virginia Seismic Zone, to quantify attenuation as frequency‐dependent Q ( f ). In support of observations based on shaking intensity, we observe high Q values in the EUS relative to previous studies in the WUS with especially efficient propagation along the structural trend of the Appalachian mountains. Our analysis of Q ( f ) quantifies the path effects of the northeast‐trending felt distribution previously inferred from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “Did You Feel It” data, historic intensity data, and the asymmetrical distribution of rockfalls and landslides.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗