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At least 667 records · Page 37Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Disruptions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections by the Madden–Julian Oscillation

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual variability, with global impacts on weather and climate that have seasonal predictability. Research on the link between interannual ENSO variability and the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), has focused mainly on the role of MJO initiating or terminating ENSO. We use observational analysis and modeling to show that the MJO has an important simultaneous link to ENSO: strong MJO activity significantly weakens the atmospheric branch of ENSO. For weak MJO conditions relative to strong MJO conditions, the average magnitude of ENSO-associated tropical precipitation anomalies increases by 63%, and the strength of hemispheric teleconnections increases by 58%. Since the MJO has predictability beyond three weeks, the relationships shown here suggest that there may be subseasonal predictability of the ENSO teleconnections to continental circulation and precipitation.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2014

Agricultural conversion without external water and nutrient inputs reduces terrestrial vegetation productivity

Driven by global population and standard of living increases, humanity co-opts a growing share of the planet's natural resources resulting in many well-known environmental trade-offs. In this study, we explored the impact of agriculture on a resource fundamental to life on Earth: terrestrial vegetation growth (net primary production; NPP). We demonstrate that agricultural conversion has reduced terrestrial NPP by ~7.0%. Increases in NPP due to agricultural conversion were observed only in areas receiving external inputs (i.e., irrigation and/or fertilization). NPP reductions were found for ~88% of agricultural lands, with the largest reductions observed in areas formerly occupied by tropical forests and savannas (~71% and ~66% reductions, respectively). Without policies that explicitly consider the impact of agricultural conversion on primary production, future demand-driven increases in agricultural output will likely continue to drive net declines in global terrestrial productivity, with potential detrimental consequences for net ecosystem carbon storage and subsequent climate warming.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2014

The birth and death of transverse aeolian ridges on Mars

Transverse aeolian ridges (TARs) are small bright windblown deposits found throughout the Martian tropics that stand a few meters tall and are spaced a few tens of meters apart. The origin of these features remains mysterious more than 20 years after their discovery on Mars. This paper presents a new hypothesis, that some of the TARs could be indurated dust deposits emplaced millions of years ago during periods of higher axial obliquity. It suggests that these TARs are primary depositional bed forms that accumulated in place from dust carried by the winds in suspension, perhaps in a manner comparable to antidunes on Earth, and were subsequently indurated and eroded to their current states by eons of sandblasting. It points out examples of modern dust drifts and dune‐like features that appear to have been recently formed by dust accumulating directly onto the surface from atmospheric suspension. It shows how these pristine dust deposits could evolve to explain the range of morphologies of the TARs. Finally, it explains how the known properties of many TARs are consistent with this hypothesis, including their composition, thermal behavior, and distribution.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2014

Multisensor earth observations to characterize wetlands and malaria epidemiology in Ethiopia

Malaria is a major global public health problem, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The spatial heterogeneity of malaria can be affected by factors such as hydrological processes, physiography, and land cover patterns. Tropical wetlands, for example, are important hydrological features that can serve as mosquito breeding habitats. Mapping and monitoring of wetlands using satellite remote sensing can thus help to target interventions aimed at reducing malaria transmission. The objective of this study was to map wetlands and other major land cover types in the Amhara region of Ethiopia and to analyze district-level associations of malaria and wetlands across the region. We evaluated three random forests classification models using remotely sensed topographic and spectral data based on Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) and Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery, respectively. The model that integrated data from both sensors yielded more accurate land cover classification than single-sensor models. The resulting map of wetlands and other major land cover classes had an overall accuracy of 93.5%. Topographic indices and subpixel level fractional cover indices contributed most strongly to the land cover classification. Further, we found strong spatial associations of percent area of wetlands with malaria cases at the district level across the dry, wet, and fall seasons. Overall, our study provided the most extensive map of wetlands for the Amhara region and documented spatiotemporal associations of wetlands and malaria risk at a broad regional level. These findings can assist public health personnel in developing strategies to effectively control and eliminate malaria in the region.

Amhara region↗
USGS2016

Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (“bathtub”) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

Earth's Future↗
USGS2016

Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding

Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observations captured two large wave events that had waves with maximum heights greater than 6 m with peak periods of 16 s over the fore reef. The larger event coincided with a peak spring tide, leading to energetic, highly skewed infragravity (0.04–0.004 Hz) and very low frequency (0.004–0.001 Hz) waves at the shoreline, which reached heights of 1.0 and 0.7 m, respectively. Water surface elevations, combined with wave runup, reached 3.7 m above the reef bed at the innermost reef flat adjacent to the toe of the beach, resulting in flooding of inland areas. This overwash occurred during a 3 h time window that coincided with high tide and maximum low-frequency reef flat wave heights. The relatively low-relief characteristics of this narrow reef flat may further drive shoreline amplification of low-frequency waves due to resonance modes. These results (1) demonstrate how the coupling of high offshore water levels with low-frequency reef flat wave energetics can lead to large impacts along fringing reef-lined shorelines, such as island overwash, and (2) lend support to the hypothesis that predicted higher sea levels will lead to more frequent occurrences of these extreme events, negatively impacting coastal resources and infrastructure.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2017

Estimating belowground carbon stocks in isolated wetlands of the Northern Everglades Watershed, central Florida, using ground penetrating radar (GPR) and aerial imagery

Peat soils store a large fraction of the global soil carbon (C) pool and comprise 95% of wetland C stocks. While isolated freshwater wetlands in temperate and tropical biomes account for more than 20% of the global peatland C stock, most studies of wetland soil C have occurred in expansive peatlands in northern boreal and subarctic biomes. Furthermore, the contribution of small depressional wetlands in comparison to larger wetland systems in these environments is very uncertain. Given the fact that these wetlands are numerous and variable in terms of their internal geometry, innovative methods are needed for properly estimating belowground C stocks and their overall C contribution to the landscape. In this study, we use a combination of ground penetrating radar (GPR), aerial imagery, and direct measurements (coring) in conjunction with C core analysis to develop a relation between C stock and surface area, and estimate the contribution of subtropical depressional wetlands to the total C stock of pine flatwoods at the Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP), Florida. Additionally, GPR surveys were able to image collapse structures underneath the peat basin of depressional wetlands, depicting lithological controls on the formation of depressional wetlands at the DWP. Results indicate the importance of depressional wetlands as critical contributors to the landscape C budget at the DWP and the potential of GPR-based approaches for (1) rapidly and noninvasively estimating the contribution of depressional wetlands to regional C stocks and (2) evaluating the formational processes of depressional wetlands.

Florida↗
USGS2017

A Bayesian-based system to assess wave-driven flooding hazards on coral reef-lined coasts

Many low-elevation, coral reef-lined, tropical coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and wave-induced flooding. The considerable morphological diversity of these coasts and the variability of the hydrodynamic forcing that they are exposed to make predicting wave-induced flooding a challenge. A process-based wave-resolving hydrodynamic model (XBeach Non-Hydrostatic, “XBNH”) was used to create a large synthetic database for use in a “Bayesian Estimator for Wave Attack in Reef Environments” (BEWARE), relating incident hydrodynamics and coral reef geomorphology to coastal flooding hazards on reef-lined coasts. Building on previous work, BEWARE improves system understanding of reef hydrodynamics by examining the intrinsic reef and extrinsic forcing factors controlling runup and flooding on reef-lined coasts. The Bayesian estimator has high predictive skill for the XBNH model outputs that are flooding indicators, and was validated for a number of available field cases. It was found that, in order to accurately predict flooding hazards, water depth over the reef flat, incident wave conditions, and reef flat width are the most essential factors, whereas other factors such as beach slope and bed friction due to the presence or absence of corals are less important. BEWARE is a potentially powerful tool for use in early warning systems or risk assessment studies, and can be used to make projections about how wave-induced flooding on coral reef-lined coasts may change due to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2021

Summary of wetland carbon and environmental management: Path forward

Wetlands around the world are under pressure from both anthropogenic sources such as land-use change and accelerating climate change (Erwin, 2009; Moomaw et al., 2018). Storage of carbon resources is a key ecosystem service of wetlands and offer natural solutions to climate change mitigation; policies and management actions could determine the fate of these resources and their contributions to climate mitigation and society needs. Inland and tidal wetlands store and sequester more carbon in soil and biomass than any other ecosystems on a per unit area basis, but also are responsible for the majority of ecosystem methane emissions (NASEM, 2019; Knox et al., 2019). Most of wetland carbon is stored deep in soils, thus providing long-term preservation of the resource (Nahlik and Fennessy, 2016). In addition to productive carbon sequestration in situ, wetlands also play a major role in lateral fluxes of carbon and other greenhouse gases along the continuum of different landscape features, including lakes, rivers, and coastal waters (Aufdenkampe et al., 2011; Ciais et al., 2008; Troxler et al., 2013). The ability of wetlands to regulate key processes of the carbon cycle is related to characteristics of the ecosystem, particularly hydrologic functions (Zhou et al., 2018). Disturbances to wetland hydrology, from land use change to natural disturbances such as wildfire, could lead to major disruptions to the wetland carbon cycle (Moomaw et al., 2018). This book is organized to first introduce fundamentals of wetland biogeochemistry (Neubauer and Megonigal, 2020) and carbon stock distribution and management in broad geographic and temporal domains, then provide a more in-depth treatment of case studies of different wetland types across the world (Fig. 1). A range of wetland management actions are described in the context of carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions, including hydrology, sediment, avoided loss, restoration, wildfire, and co-habitation of multiple uses. Different wetland types or land uses considered in this book include freshwater herbaceous wetlands, peatlands of temperate as well as tropical climate, coastal tidal marshes and mangroves, drained croplands, and rice paddies.

Book chapter↗
USGS2018

Are fungal networks key to dryland primary production?

In low-resource ecosystems, competition among primary producers can be reduced through the partitioning of limiting resources in space or time. Partitioning, coupled with species interactions, can be a source of ecosystem stability by retaining resources within a biotic “loop” and slowing losses due to physical processes, such as erosion, gaseous loss, or leaching. Such coupling occurs in marine food webs (the microbial loop), where positive interactions among microbes limit losses of nutrients that would otherwise drop to the ocean floor (Fenchel, 2008). Likewise, mycorrhizal fungi in tropical rainforests may rapidly recycle litter nutrients back to canopy trees, preventing leaching driven by high rainfall (Hattenschwiler et al., 2011). Such dynamics differ from the paradigm for most mesic, terrestrial ecosystems, in which the primary source of nutrients for primary production is the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM, Schimel and Bennett, 2004). Thus, in ecosystems that lack large reserves of soil organic matter to supply nutrients to producers (e.g., drylands, where sparse litter yields low SOM), biotic retention of nutrients may be particularly critical to primary production and ecosystem dynamics.

American Journal of Botany↗
USGS2013

Effects of isolation and fishing on the marine ecosystems of Easter Island and Salas y Gómez, Chile

1. An expedition to Salas y Gómez and Easter islands was conducted to develop a comprehensive baseline of the nearshore marine ecosystem, to survey seamounts of the recently created Motu Motiro Hiva Marine Park (MMHMP) – a no-take marine reserve of 150 000 km2 – and to compare these results with Easter Island where the marine ecosystem is similar but has no marine protection. 2. Live coral cover was surprisingly high at both Easter Island (53%) and Salas y Gómez (44%), especially considering their sub-tropical location, high wave energy environments, and geographic isolation. 3. Endemic and regionally-endemic species comprised 77% of the fish abundance at Easter Island and 73% at Salas y Gómez. Fish biomass at Salas y Gómez was relatively high (1.2 t ha-1) and included a large proportion of apex predators (43%), whereas at Easter Island it was almost three times lower (0.45 t ha-1) with large predators accounting for less than 2% of the biomass, despite good habitat quality. 4. The large cohort of small sharks and the absence of larger sharks at Salas y Gómez suggest mesopredator release consistent with recent shark fishing. The fish fauna at the seamounts between Easter Island and Salas y Gómez, outside of MMHMP, harboured 46% endemic species, including a new species of damselfish (Chromis sp. nov.) and probably a new species of Chimaera (Hydrolagus). Numerous seamounts adjacent to Salas y Gómez are currently not included in the MMHMP. 5. This expedition highlights the high biodiversity value of this remote part of the Pacific owing to the uniqueness (endemicity) of the fauna, large apex predator biomass, and geographic isolation.

Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosys↗
USGS2018

Size-structured habitat selection by arapaima in floodplain lakes of the lower Amazon

Human modification of floodplain ecosystems is widespread and a major threat to fish populations, particularly in the tropics where fish diversity and rates of floodplain degradation are high. Identifying measures to minimize the susceptibility of floodplain fishes to habitat modification requires understanding dry-season lake habitat selection for species of conservation concern. This study examined the effects of environmental factors on dry-season floodplain lake habitat selection by arapaima ( Arapaima spp.) and determined the extent to which they differed across three size classes. In floodplain lakes of the lower Amazon River, variables were measured at locations representing habitat availability and compared with measurements taken where arapaima were observed during surface breathing. Regression models were used to account for between-lake variation in the presence of arapaima owing to nearby fishing communities. The probability of arapaima presence at each sample location was modelled based on the variables measured. The results indicated that arapaima expressed distinct habitat selection patterns, which differed significantly across size classes. The general pattern observed was that all arapaima were more likely to be found in deeper, more turbid, and higher conductivity locations, whereas smaller arapaima were more likely to remain near dense beds of floating macrophytes. The probability of arapaima presence differed among fishing community territories, reflecting differences in management schemes. Deeper, macrophyte-rich sections of floodplain lakes appear to provide key habitats for arapaima and deserve consideration for becoming priority targets for conservation of the rich diversity of fish species in these systems.

Pará↗
USGS2025

Shifting baselines of coral-reef species composition from the Late Pleistocene to the present in the Florida Keys

The ongoing global-scale reassembly of modern coral reefs is unprecedented compared with the observed stability of most late Quaternary reef assemblages. One notable exception is the marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e ( ca 130–116 thousand years ago [ka]) reefs in the Florida Keys, where the ubiquitous shallow-water coral, Acropora palmata , was near absent. Little is known, however, about reefs that grew during MIS5d–a ( ca 116–74 ka), between MIS5e and the Holocene. It is therefore unclear whether Florida's unique MIS5e coral assemblages represent a geologically brief anomaly or a more persistent departure from the western Atlantic coral-reef archetype. We addressed that question by reconstructing the composition of MIS5d–a reefs within 29 coral-reef cores collected throughout the Florida Keys. We then compared the relative composition of corals during MIS5d–a to existing datasets from MIS5e, Holocene and modern (1996 and 2022) reefs to evaluate how far today's reef assemblages have diverged from geological baselines. We show that although the proportion of reef frameworks built by corals was remarkably consistent ( ca 38%), species composition changed significantly through time. Acropora palmata was rare throughout MIS5, which we hypothesise was due to greater cold-temperature stress in Florida's subtropical reefs compared with the more climatically stable tropics. In contrast, the massive reef-building coral, Orbicella spp., was regionally dominant throughout the late Quaternary, but has become increasingly rare on modern reefs. By 2022, reefs in the Florida Keys were characterised by a truly novel coral assemblage dominated by Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea . In many ways, Florida's reefs defy the concept of a natural baseline; instead, their most persistent characteristic since the Late Pleistocene is their uniqueness. Yet, as reefs are increasingly subjected to unprecedented levels of environmental change, the exceptions to what was normal in the past could, paradoxically, provide the best geological analogues for the future.

Florida↗
USGS2021

What is the effect of poaching activity on wildlife species?

Poaching is a pervasive threat to wildlife, yet quantifying the direct effect of poaching on wildlife is rarely possible because both wildlife and threat data are infrequently collected concurrently. In this study, we used poaching data collected through the Management Information System (MIST) and wildlife camera trap data collected by the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) network from 2014 to 2017 in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda. We implemented co-occurrence multi-season occupancy models that accounted for imperfect detection to investigate the effect of poaching on initial occupancy, colonization, and extinction of 5 mammal species. Specifically, we focused on 2 species of conservation concern (mountain gorilla ( Gorilla beringei beringei ) and golden money ( Cercopithecus mitis kandti )), and 3 species targeted by poachers (black-fronted duiker ( Cephalophus nigrifrons ), bushbuck ( Tragelaphus scriptus ), and African buffalo ( Syncerus caffer )). We found that the probability of local extinction was highest in sites with poaching activity for golden monkey and bushbuck. In addition, the probability of initial occupancy for golden monkey was highest in sites without poaching activity. We only found weak evidence of effects of poaching on parameters governing the occupancy dynamics of the other species. All species showed evidence of poaching presence affecting the probability of detection of the wildlife species. This is the first study to our knowledge to combine direct threat observations from ranger-based monitoring data with camera trap wildlife observations to quantify the effect of poaching on wildlife. Given the widespread collection of ranger-based monitoring and camera trap data, our approach is broadly applicable to numerous protected areas and has the potential to significantly improve conservation management. Specifically, the relationship between poaching activity and wildlife population dynamics (this paper) can be combined with information on the relationship between ranger patrols and poaching activity (Moore et al. 2017) to develop models useful for making wise decisions about ranger patrol deployment.

Volcanoes National Park↗
USGS2014

Estimating migratory connectivity of birds when re-encounter probabilities are heterogeneous

Understanding the biology and conducting effective conservation of migratory species requires an understanding of migratory connectivity – the geographic linkages of populations between stages of the annual cycle. Unfortunately, for most species, we are lacking such information. The North American Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) houses an extensive database of marking, recaptures and recoveries, and such data could provide migratory connectivity information for many species. To date, however, few species have been analyzed for migratory connectivity largely because heterogeneous re-encounter probabilities make interpretation problematic. We accounted for regional variation in re-encounter probabilities by borrowing information across species and by using effort covariates on recapture and recovery probabilities in a multistate capture–recapture and recovery model. The effort covariates were derived from recaptures and recoveries of species within the same regions. We estimated the migratory connectivity for three tern species breeding in North America and over-wintering in the tropics, common (Sterna hirundo), roseate (Sterna dougallii), and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia). For western breeding terns, model-derived estimates of migratory connectivity differed considerably from those derived directly from the proportions of re-encounters. Conversely, for eastern breeding terns, estimates were merely refined by the inclusion of re-encounter probabilities. In general, eastern breeding terns were strongly connected to eastern South America, and western breeding terns were strongly linked to the more western parts of the nonbreeding range under both models. Through simulation, we found this approach is likely useful for many species in the BBL database, although precision improved with higher re-encounter probabilities and stronger migratory connectivity. We describe an approach to deal with the inherent biases in BBL banding and re-encounter data to demonstrate that this large dataset is a valuable source of information about the migratory connectivity of the birds of North America.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Lessons from the Tōhoku tsunami: A model for island avifauna conservation prioritization

Earthquake-generated tsunamis threaten coastal areas and low-lying islands with sudden flooding. Although human hazards and infrastructure damage have been well documented for tsunamis in recent decades, the effects on wildlife communities rarely have been quantified. We describe a tsunami that hit the world's largest remaining tropical seabird rookery and estimate the effects of sudden flooding on 23 bird species nesting on Pacific islands more than 3,800 km from the epicenter. We used global positioning systems, tide gauge data, and satellite imagery to quantify characteristics of the Tōhoku earthquake-generated tsunami (11 March 2011) and its inundation extent across four Hawaiian Islands. We estimated short-term effects of sudden flooding to bird communities using spatially explicit data from Midway Atoll and Laysan Island, Hawai'i. We describe variation in species vulnerability based on breeding phenology, nesting habitat, and life history traits. The tsunami inundated 21%–100% of each island's area at Midway Atoll and Laysan Island. Procellariformes (albatrosses and petrels) chick and egg losses exceeded 258,500 at Midway Atoll while albatross chick losses at Laysan Island exceeded 21,400. The tsunami struck at night and during the peak of nesting for 14 colonial seabird species. Strongly philopatric Procellariformes were vulnerable to the tsunami. Nonmigratory, endemic, endangered Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ) were sensitive to ecosystem effects such as habitat changes and carcass-initiated epizootics of avian botulism, and its populations declined approximately 40% on both atolls post-tsunami. Catastrophic flooding of Pacific islands occurs periodically not only from tsunamis, but also from storm surge and rainfall; with sea-level rise, the frequency of sudden flooding events will likely increase. As invasive predators occupy habitat on higher elevation Hawaiian Islands and globally important avian populations are concentrated on low-lying islands, additional conservation strategies may be warranted to increase resilience of island biodiversity encountering tsunamis and rising sea levels.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2014

Guidelines for a priori grouping of species in hierarchical community models

Recent methodological advances permit the estimation of species richness and occurrences for rare species by linking species-level occurrence models at the community level. The value of such methods is underscored by the ability to examine the influence of landscape heterogeneity on species assemblages at large spatial scales. A salient advantage of community-level approaches is that parameter estimates for data-poor species are more precise as the estimation process borrows from data-rich species. However, this analytical benefit raises a question about the degree to which inferences are dependent on the implicit assumption of relatedness among species. Here, we assess the sensitivity of community/group-level metrics, and individual-level species inferences given various classification schemes for grouping species assemblages using multispecies occurrence models. We explore the implications of these groupings on parameter estimates for avian communities in two ecosystems: tropical forests in Puerto Rico and temperate forests in northeastern United States. We report on the classification performance and extent of variability in occurrence probabilities and species richness estimates that can be observed depending on the classification scheme used. We found estimates of species richness to be most precise and to have the best predictive performance when all of the data were grouped at a single community level. Community/group-level parameters appear to be heavily influenced by the grouping criteria, but were not driven strictly by total number of detections for species. We found different grouping schemes can provide an opportunity to identify unique assemblage responses that would not have been found if all of the species were analyzed together. We suggest three guidelines: (1) classification schemes should be determined based on study objectives; (2) model selection should be used to quantitatively compare different classification approaches; and (3) sensitivity of results to different classification approaches should be assessed. These guidelines should help researchers apply hierarchical community models in the most effective manner.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate-mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semi-arid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate-mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global- and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.

Ecological Monographs↗