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Proceedings of a workshop on fish habitat suitability index models

One of the habitat-based methodologies for impact assessment currently in use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is the Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1980). HEP is based on the assumption that the quality of an area as wildlife habitat at a specified target year can be described by a single number, called a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI). An HSI of 1.0 represents optimum habitat: an HSI of 0.0 represents unsuitable habitat. The verbal or mathematical rules by which an HSI is assigned to an area are called an HSI model. A series of Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models, described by Schamberger et al. (1982), have been published to assist users in applying HEP. HSI model building approaches are described in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (1981). One type of HSI model described in detail requires the development of Suitability Index (SI) graphs for habitat variables believed to be important for the growth, survival, standing crop, or other measure of well-being for a species. Suitability indices range from 0 to 1.0, with 1.0 representing optimum conditions for the variable. When HSI models based on suitability indices are used, habitat variable values are measured, or estimated, and converted to SI's through the use of a Suitability Index graph for each variable. Individual SI's are aggregated into an HSI. Standard methods for testing this type of HSI model did not exist at the time the studies reported in this document were performed. A workshop was held in Fort Collins, Colorado, February 14-15, 1983, that brought together biologists experienced in the use, development, and testing of aquatic HSI models, in an effort to address the following objectives: (1) review the needs of HSI model users; (2) discuss and document the results of aquatic HSI model tests; and (3) provide recommendations for the future development, testing, modification, and use of HSI models. Individual presentations, group discussions, and group decision techniques were used to develop and present information at the meeting. A synthesis of the resulting concepts, results, and recommendations follows this preface. Subsequent papers describe individual tests of selected HSI models. Most of the tests involved comparison of values from HSI models or Suitability index (SI) curves with standing crop, as required contractually. Time and budget constraints generally limited tests to the use of data previously collected for other purposes. These proceedings are intended to help persons responsible for the development, testing, or use of HSI models by increasing their understanding of potential uses and limitations of testing procedures and models based on aggregated Suitability Indices. Problems encountered when testing HSI models are described, model performance during tests is documents, and recommendations for future model development and testing presented by the participants are listed and interpreted.

Biological Report↗

Documentation of models describing relations between continuous real-time and discrete water-quality constituents in the Little Arkansas River, south-central Kansas, 1998–2019

Data were collected at two monitoring sites along the Little Arkansas River in south-central Kansas that bracket most of the easternmost part of the Equus Beds aquifer. The data were used as part of the city of Wichita’s aquifer storage and recovery project to evaluate source water quality. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Wichita, has continued to monitor the water quality of these sites through 2019 to update previously published regression-based models using continuously measured physicochemical properties and discretely sampled water-quality constituents of interest. The purpose of this report is to provide an update of the previously published linear regression models that have been used to continuously compute estimates of water-quality constituent concentrations or densities at these two sites. Water-quality constituent model updates include those for dissolved and suspended solids, suspended-sediment concentration, hardness, alkalinity, primary ions (bicarbonate, calcium, sodium, chloride, and sulfate), nutrients (total Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus), total organic carbon, indicator bacteria ( Escherichia coli and fecal coliform bacteria), a trace element (arsenic), and a pesticide (atrazine). Regression analyses were used to develop surrogate models that related continuously measured physicochemical properties, streamflow, and seasonal components to discretely sampled water-quality constituent concentrations or densities. Specific conductance was an explanatory variable for dissolved solids, primary ions, and atrazine. Turbidity was an explanatory variable for total suspended solids and sediment, nutrients, total organic carbon, and indicator bacteria. Streamflow and water temperature were explanatory variables for dissolved arsenic. Seasonal components were included as explanatory variables for atrazine models. The amount of variance explained by most of the updated models was within 5 percent of previously published models.

Kansas↗

Precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) as part of an integrated hydrologic model for the Osage Nation, northeastern Oklahoma, 1915–2014

Executive Summary The Osage Nation lacks a comprehensive tribal water plan to describe the quality and quantity of water resources in the Osage Nation, a 2,304-square-mile (mi 2 ) area of rolling pastures, tallgrass prairie, and mixed woodlands in northeastern Oklahoma. A tribal water plan can be used to help manage the sustainable development of surface and groundwater resources, thereby helping to provide a better future for the Osage Nation and their neighbors, while preserving water resources for the benefit of the surrounding environment and future generations. To help meet these goals and contribute to increased knowledge of the quantity and quality of water resources and the hydrologic processes and factors affecting those resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Osage Nation began studies to evaluate the surface-water and groundwater resources of the Osage Nation. An important component of these studies is the development and application of numerical models to improve quantification and understanding of the hydrologic system. These models are needed to estimate and quantify the effects of historical and potential future water resource development for the Osage Nation. This report describes the development and application of a precipitation-runoff model, the Osage Nation watershed model (ONWM). The ONWM is needed as a component of the Osage Nation integrated hydrologic model (ONIHM). At the time of this study, the ONIHM was being developed using the USGS computer software MODFLOW-One Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MODFLOW-OWHM). The intended use of the ONIHM is to simulate all surface-water and groundwater components of the hydrologic system for a 2,905-mi 2 study area centered on the Osage Nation. The ONWM was developed using the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, version 4 (PRMS-IV) computer software, also referred to as PRMS in this report, for an 8,343-mi 2 study area in northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, centered on and including the areas of the Osage Nation and the ONIHM. The ONWM is to be used as part of the ONIHM to provide a direct coupling with spatially and temporally varying daily climate conditions affecting the ONIHM study area. As an integral part of the ONIHM, the ONWM (1) simulates the inflow boundary conditions from tributary basins in the region outside and surrounding the ONIHM area; (2) provides estimates of spatially and temporally distributed precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, recharge, and streamflow in the ONIHM area; and (3) provides a preliminary water budget for the ONIHM area and the surrounding region, including tributary drainage basins outside of and next to the ONIHM. The specific objectives of this study were to use the ONWM to (1) provide a systematic inventory of the historical distribution of water inflows from precipitation (rain or snow) falling on the land surface and flowing through the surface-water network, (2) provide a historical context of the variability and spatial and temporal distribution of these waters, and (3) provide estimates of water inflows and potential observations to the ONIHM. The application of the ONWM as a component of the ONIHM is needed for planned simulations using the ONIHM to improve the understanding of the hydrologic system and to develop a fully comprehensive water budget, including the use and movement of water across the landscape, in the surface-water network, and in groundwater aquifers under historical and potential future conditions.

Oklahoma↗

2023 Coastal master plan: Model improvement plan, ICM-wetlands, vegetation, and soil

As part of the model improvement effort for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan, the wetland processes captured by the morphology and vegetation models used during previous master plans were reevaluated to assess how Integrated Compartment Model (ICM) subroutines could be improved. This process considered technical reviews, comments, and suggested improvements provided by model developers, advisory groups, and other experts during previous master plan cycles. The availability of new data and information that could be used to make model improvements was also considered. In many cases, the team considered and tested multiple options or approaches. As a result of this effort, recommended improvements are provided here. The improvements recommended to be included in the 2023 Coastal Master Plan include: adjusting marsh collapse thresholds, refining organic matter accretion calculations, developing an unstructured grid for modeling vegetation, improving flotant marsh and forested wetlands algorithms, creating and applying an updated map of existing vegetation, adjusting model code, and updating the submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) module. This report describes the team’s work through a series of 7 distinct activities to identify and test options for model improvements to ensure the updated ICM used for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan appropriately captures ecological and morphological processes observed in Coastal Louisiana. As appropriate, relevant literature and data are discussed. Test runs to evaluate how changes influence model outputs are also documented. A final list of recommended updates, taking into account consideration of all options and results from test runs, is summarized at the end of the report. A later report will describe the final ICM-LAVegMod and ICM-Morph subroutines for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan, detailing the updates that have been incorporated.

Louisiana↗

Development and calibration of a ground-water flow model for the Sparta Aquifer of southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana and simulated response to withdrawals, 1998-2027

The Sparta aquifer, which consists of the Sparta Sand, in southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana is a major water resource and provides water for municipal, industrial, and agricultural uses. In recent years, the demand in some areas has resulted in withdrawals from the Sparta aquifer that substantially exceed replenishment of the aquifer. Considerable drawdown has occurred in the potentiometric surface forming regional cones of depression as water is removed from storage by withdrawals. These cones of depression are centered beneath the Grand Prairie area and the cities of Pine Bluff and El Dorado in Arkansas, and Monroe in Louisiana. The rate of decline for hydraulic heads in the aquifer has been greater than 1 foot per year for more than a decade in much of southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana where hydraulic heads are now below the top of the Sparta Sand. Continued hydraulic-head declines have caused water users and managers alike to question the ability of the aquifer to supply water for the long term. Concern over protecting the Sparta aquifer as a sustainable resource has resulted in a continued, cooperative effort by the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Geological Survey to develop, maintain, and utilize numerical ground-water flow models to manage and further analyze the ground-water system. The work presented in this report describes the development and calibration of a ground-water flow model representing the Sparta aquifer to simulate observed hydraulic heads, documents major differences in the current Sparta model compared to the previous Sparta model calibrated in the mid-1980's, and presents the results of three hypothetical future withdrawal scenarios. The current Sparta model-a regional scale, three-dimensional numerical ground-water flow model-was constructed and calibrated using available hydrogeologic, hydraulic, and water-use data from 1898 to 1997. Significant changes from the previous model include grid rediscretization of the aquifer, extension of the active model area northward beyond the Cane River Formation facies change, and representation of model boundaries. The current model was calibrated with the aid of parameter estimation, a nonlinear regression technique, combined with trial and error parameter adjustment using a total of 795 observations from 316 wells over 4 different years-1970, 1985, 1990, and 1997. The calibration data set provides broad spatial and temporal coverage of aquifer conditions. Analysis of the residual statistics, spatial distribution of residuals, simulated compared to observed hydrographs, and simulated compared to observed potentiometric surfaces were used to analyze the ability of the calibrated model to simulate aquifer conditions within acceptable error. The calibrated model has a root mean square error of 18 feet for all observations, an improvement of more than 12 feet from the previous model. The current Sparta model was used to predict the effects of three hypothetical withdrawal scenarios on hydraulic heads over the period 1998-2027 with one of those extended indefinitely until equilibrium conditions were attained, or steady state. In scenario 1a, withdrawals representing the time period from 1990 to 1997 was held constant for 30 years from 1998 to 2027. Hydraulic heads in the middle of the cone of depression centered on El Dorado decreased by 10 feet from the 1997 simulation to 222 feet below NGVD of 1929 in 2027. Hydraulic heads in the Pine Bluff cone of depression showed a greater decline from 61 feet below NGVD of 1929 to 78 feet below NGVD of 1929 in the center of the cone. With these same withdrawals extended to steady state (scenario 1b), hydraulic heads in the Pine Bluff cone of depression center declined an 2 Development and Calibration of a Ground-Water Flow Model for the Sparta Aquifer of Southeastern Arkansas and North-Central Louisiana and Simulated Response to Withdrawa

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Spectral characteristics and mapping of lithium-rich playas in the Basin and Range Province, western United States

This report presents a comprehensive set of prospectivity maps for lithium in brines located within the playas of the Basin and Range Province of western United States. The prospectivity assessment is based on criteria established in the descriptive deposit model outlined in a previous U.S. Geological Survey report, with a focus on regional remote sensing methodologies. The playas within the study area have been systematically ranked according to several key factors, including size, the presence and abundance of source rocks, vegetation as an indicator of water availability, documented prospects, and data products derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensor. Notably, the deposits in the playa of Clayton Valley make it stand out as the sole lithium brine-producing playa in the United States. The ASTER sensor provides optimal regional coverage, characterized by a 60-kilometer swath width and unique multispectral capabilities that are not available with other remote sensing instruments. This report and the accompanying maps are intended to serve as resources for further multidisciplinary assessments of lithium or other elements or commodities where prospectivity can be inferred from the presence of proxies such as alteration minerals.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Chihuahua, I↗

Assessing potential effects of highway runoff on receiving-water quality at selected sites in Oregon with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)

In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oregon Department of Transportation began a cooperative study to demonstrate use of the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) for runoff-quality analyses in Oregon. SELDM can be used to estimate stormflows, constituent concentrations, and loads from the area upstream of a stormflow discharge site, from the site of interest and in the receiving waters downstream of the discharge. SELDM also can be used to assess the potential effectiveness of best management practices (BMP) for mitigating potential effects of runoff in receiving waters. Nominally, SELDM is a highway-runoff model, but it is well suited for analysis of runoff from other land uses as well. This report provides case studies and examples to demonstrate stochastic-runoff modeling concepts and to demonstrate application of the model. Basin characteristics from six Oregon highway study sites were used to demonstrate various applications of the model. The highway catchment and upstream basin drainage areas of these study sites ranged from 3.85 to 11.83 acres and from 0.16 to 6.56 square miles, respectively. The upstream basins of two sites are urbanized, and the remaining four sites are less than 5 percent impervious. SELDM facilitates analysis by providing precipitation, pre-storm streamflow, and other variables by region or from hydrologically similar sites. In Oregon, there can be large variations in precipitation and streamflow among nearby sites. Therefore, spatially interpolated geographic information system data layers containing storm-event precipitation and pre-storm streamflow statistics specific to Oregon were created for the study using Kriging techniques. Concentrations and loads of cadmium, chloride, chromium, copper, iron, lead, nickel, phosphorus, and zinc were simulated at the six Oregon highway study sites by using statistics from sites in other areas of the country. Water‑quality datasets measured at hydrologically similar basins in the vicinity of the study sites in Oregon were selected and compiled to estimate stormflow-quality statistics for the upstream basins. The quality of highway runoff and some upstream stormflow constituents were simulated by using statistical moments (average, standard deviation, and skew) of the logarithms of data. Some upstream stormflow constituents were simulated by using transport curves, which are relations between stormflow and constituent concentrations. Stochastic analyses were done by using SELDM to demonstrate use of the model and to illustrate the types of information that stochastic analyses may provide: 1. An analysis was done to demonstrate use of dilution factors as an initial reconnaissance tool for comparing relative risk among sites. 2. An analysis of hardness-dependent, water-quality criteria was done to illustrate the effects of variations in hardness and flow on the application and interpretation of such criteria. This analysis shows that hardness-dependent criteria can vary by an order of magnitude among storm events because hardness is diluted by stormflows. 3. An analysis of uncertainties in input and output values was done to demonstrate that properly selected robust datasets are needed to represent conditions at a site of interest. This analysis shows that the rate of water-quality exceedances that are measured or simulated may depend on sample size and the luck of the draw. 4. An analysis was done to demonstrate that SELDM and other Monte Carlo models may generate extreme values from input statistics, which may or may not be feasible based on physicochemical or hydrological limits. 5. An analysis of BMP modeling methods was done to demonstrate use of the model for estimating treatment requirements for meeting water-quality objectives. 6. An analysis of the use of grab sampling and nonstochastic upstream modeling methods was done to evaluate the potential effects on modeling outcomes. Additional analyses using surrogate water-quality datasets for the upstream basin and highway catchment were provided for six Oregon study sites to illustrate the risk-based information that SELDM will produce. These analyses show that the potential effects of highway runoff on receiving-water quality downstream of the outfall depends on the ratio of drainage areas (dilution), the quality of the receiving water upstream of the highway, and the concentration of the criteria of the constituent of interest. These analyses also show that the probability of exceeding a water-quality criterion may depend on the input statistics used, thus careful selection of representative values is important.

Oregon↗

Near real-time updating of pager loss estimates

Initial alerts by PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) within minutes following an earthquake include several uncertainties, mainly due to potential inaccuracies in location, depth, fault delineation, and shaking estimates. We enhance an updating framework by incorporating early reports of fatalities within the first 24 hours, or so, of an earthquake to update PAGER’s overall fatality estimates and its resulting alert level. Though initial loss reports by officials or the media are uncertain and often undercount the eventual reported impacts, their temporal evolution provides predictive constraints for the PAGER model. The proposed framework helps capture these in a systematic way to minimize potential large fluctuations in PAGER alerts as ShakeMap (the USGS product which estimates how an area is affected by an earthquake) gets updated in the early hours after an earthquake. The new framework also accounts for uncertainties associated with early fatality reports as well as PAGER model-related uncertainties in order to improve the overall impact forecast. This updating framework improves the loss estimate and alert level to the correct level within the first 24 hours even when the initial estimation from PAGER is assumed to be off by two levels of alert, which is plausible due to potential over- or under-estimation of the PAGER model. While test results are very encouraging, our future work aims at implementation of operational PAGER model updating, which entails additional challenges in acquiring useful data, estimating their credibility, and developing rigorously tested operational code and protocols

Conference Paper↗

SutraGUI, a graphical-user interface for SUTRA, a model for ground-water flow with solute or energy transport

This report describes SutraGUI, a flexible graphical user-interface (GUI) that supports two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) simulation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) SUTRA ground-water-flow and transport model (Voss and Provost, 2002). SutraGUI allows the user to create SUTRA ground-water models graphically. SutraGUI provides all of the graphical functionality required for setting up and running SUTRA simulations that range from basic to sophisticated, but it is also possible for advanced users to apply programmable features within Argus ONE to meet the unique demands of particular ground-water modeling projects. SutraGUI is a public-domain computer program designed to run with the proprietary Argus ONE? package, which provides 2D Geographic Information System (GIS) and meshing support. For 3D simulation, GIS and meshing support is provided by programming contained within SutraGUI. When preparing a 3D SUTRA model, the model and all of its features are viewed within Argus 1 in 2D projection. For 2D models, SutraGUI is only slightly changed in functionality from the previous 2D-only version (Voss and others, 1997) and it provides visualization of simulation results. In 3D, only model preparation is supported by SutraGUI, and 3D simulation results may be viewed in SutraPlot (Souza, 1999) or Model Viewer (Hsieh and Winston, 2002). A comprehensive online Help system is included in SutraGUI. For 3D SUTRA models, the 3D model domain is conceptualized as bounded on the top and bottom by 2D surfaces. The 3D domain may also contain internal surfaces extending across the model that divide the domain into tabular units, which can represent hydrogeologic strata or other features intended by the user. These surfaces can be non-planar and non-horizontal. The 3D mesh is defined by one or more 2D meshes at different elevations that coincide with these surfaces. If the nodes in the 3D mesh are vertically aligned, only a single 2D mesh is needed. For nonaligned meshes, two or more 2D meshes of similar connectivity are used. Between each set of 2D meshes (and model surfaces), the vertical space in the 3D mesh is evenly divided into a user-specified number of layers of finite elements. Boundary conditions may be specified for 3D models in SutraGUI using a variety of geometric shapes that may be located freely within the 3D model domain. These shapes include points, lines, sheets, and solids. These are represented by 2D contours (within the vertically-projected Argus ONE view) with user-defined elevations. In addition, boundary conditions may be specified for 3D models as points, lines, and areas that are located exactly within the surfaces that define the model top and the bottoms of the tabular units. Aquifer properties may be specified separately for each tabular unit. If the aquifer properties vary vertically within a unit, SutraGUI provides the Sutra_Z function that can be used to specify such variation.

Open-File Report↗

Lithostratigraphy, geophysics, biostratigraphy, and strontium-isotope stratigraphy of the surficial aquifer system of eastern Collier County and northern Monroe County, Florida

In 1997, ten cores were drilled in eastern Collier County and northern Monroe County, within the limits of the Big Cypress National Preserve. These cores represent a continuation of the study of seven cores in western Collier County begun in 1996 and reported in Weedman and others (1997) and Edwards and others (1998). This joint U.S. Geological Survey and Florida Geological Survey project is designed to acquire subsurface geologic and hydrologic data in southwest Florida to extend current ground-water models, thereby expanding the utility of these models for land and water management. In this report we describe the lithostratigraphy, geophysical logging, sedimentological analysis, dinocyst biostratigraphy, and strontium-isotope stratigraphy of these ten cores. The three geophysical logs (natural gamma-ray, induction conductivity, and neutron porosity) assumed to be related to formation lithology and water quality show that a number of clay-rich zones are present in all of the boreholes, and that pore-water conductivity increases with depth. The clay-rich zones are confirmed by visual examination of core material and sedimentological analysis. The relative transmissivity calculated at 10-foot-thick intervals shows that in six of the boreholes, high values are associated with the shallow aquifer in the 0-40 ft interval. Two of the boreholes (the most northerly and the most easterly) showed relatively higher values of transmissivity in permeable zones at or somewhat below 100 ft in depth. Core geology and logs indicate that the deeper aquifers are not more permeable than similar deeper zones in the other boreholes, but rather that the shallow aquifer appears to be less permeable in these two coreholes. The Arcadia (?) Formation was only penetrated in the deepest core where it is late Miocene in age. The Peace River Formation was penetrated in all but the two westernmost cores. It yields a late Miocene age, based on both dinocysts and strontium-isotope stratigraphy. The top is an irregular surface. Age and stratigraphic relations suggest that the upper part of the Peace River and lower part of the unnamed formation are at least partially equivalent laterally. The unnamed formation was recovered in every core. It is thinnest in the northernmost core and thickest to the west. Ages calculated from strontium isotopes range from 6.9 to 4.6 million years ago (late Miocene to early Pliocene). The top of the unnamed formation is deepest to the north and it becomes shallower to the southwest. The Tamiami Formation also was recovered in every core and consistently yields early Pliocene ages; it yields late Pliocene ages near the top in two cores. The age and lateral relations strongly suggest that the lower part of the Tamiami Formation and the upper part of the unnamed formation are lateral facies of each other. The Fort Thompson (?) Formation, Miami Limestone, and undifferentiated siliciclastic sediments and limestone at the very top of the cores were not dated.

Florida↗

Temperature and solute-transport simulation in streamflow using a Lagrangian reference frame

A computer program for simulating one-dimensional, unsteady temperature and solute transport in a river has been developed and documented for general use. The solution approach to the convective-diffusion equation uses a moving reference frame (Lagrangian) which greatly simplifies the mathematics of the solution procedure and dramatically reduces errors caused by numerical dispersion. The solution procedure has the further advantages, relative to conventional Eulerian solution schemes, of being easy to understand in the physical sense, of being extremely stable numerically, and of providing an accounting system which is very useful for model calibration. The model documentation is presented as a series of four programs of increasing complexity. The conservative transport model can be used to route a single conservative substance, such as dye, through a reach of a river. The simplified temperature model is used to predict water temperature in rivers, either with or without thermal loading, when few meteorological data are available. Only equilibrium temperature and windspeed are required. It is suggested that air temperature can be used to approximate equilibrium temperature. The complete temperature model is highly accurate but requires rather complete meteorological data. Finally, the 10-parameter model can be used to route as many as 10 interacting constituents through a river reach. The mathematical description of the interaction between the constituents, which does not need to be linear, is generally up to the user to supply. An example problem is solved for a three-parameter system involving temperature, dissolved oxygen, and biochemical oxygen demand. For simplicity, all models are developed and presented assuming steady non-uniform flow. Generalization of the models to allow unsteady flow is extremely simple, involving the addition of no more than 18 cards to the program deck. The report is concluded by describing this generalization for any of the models. Before using the models with unsteady flow, a flow model must be used to calculate and store the necessary flow data at each cross section and time step. Such a flow model is available and documented.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes

Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and land-management activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.

Applied Geography↗

Coal and petroleum resources in the Appalachian basin: distribution, geologic framework, and geochemical character

Fossil fuels from the Appalachian basin region have been major contributors to the Nation’s energy supplies over much of the last three centuries. Appalachian coal and petroleum resources are still available in sufficient quantities to contribute significantly to fulfilling the Nation’s energy needs. Although both conventional oil and gas continue to be produced in the Appalachian basin, most new wells in the region are drilled in shale reservoirs to produce natural gas. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1708 is a modern, indepth collection of reports, cross sections, and maps that describe the geology of the Appalachian basin and its fossil fuel resources. This publication supplements and updates older USGS regional studies of Appalachian basin coal and petroleum resources. Some chapters are new, and several have been published in outside journals or as other USGS publications. Although this volume is not a comprehensive regional treatment of all notable geologic and fossil fuel localities in the Appalachian basin, the selected study areas and topics presented in the chapters pertain to large segments of the basin and a wide range of stratigraphic intervals. This volume discusses the locations of coal and petroleum accumulations, the stratigraphic and structural framework, and the geochemical characteristics of the coal beds and petroleum in the basin, as well as the results of recent USGS assessments of coal, oil, and gas resources in the basin. Many of the maps and accompanying data supporting the reports in this volume are available from chapter I.1 as downloadable geographic information system (GIS) data files about the characteristics of selected coal beds and oil and gas fields, locations of oil and gas wells, coal production, coal chemistry, total petroleum system (TPS) boundaries, and bedrock geology. Log ASCII Standard (LAS) files for geophysical (gamma ray) wireline well logs are included in other chapters. Professional Paper 1708 is intended primarily for geoscientists in academia, industry, and government who are interested in Appalachian basin geology and its coal and petroleum resources. Other users, however, may find the topics, papers, and digital images valuable for land-use and policy planning. Among the anticipated benefits of the report are improvements in (1) resource assessment estimates and methodology, (2) exploration strategies, (3) basin models, and (4) energy use policies.

Appalachian basin↗

Selected field parameters from streams and preliminary analytical data from water and macroinvertebrate samples, Central Colorado Assessment Project, task, 2004 and 2005

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Central Colorado Assessment Project (CCAP) began in October 2003 and is planned to last through September 2008. One major goal of this project is to compare the relationships between surface-water chemistry and aquatic fauna in mined and unmined areas. To accomplish this goal, we are conducting a State-scale reconnaissance sampling program, in which we are collecting water and macroinvertebrate samples. Selected results from the first two years of project analyses are reported here. We plan to develop statistical models and use geographic information system (GIS) technology to quantify the relationships between ecological indicators of metal contamination in Rocky Mountain streams and water quality, landscape and land-use characteristics (for example, mine density, geology, geomorphology, vegetation, topography). Our research will test the hypothesis that physicochemical variables and ecological responses to metal concentrations in stream water in Rocky Mountain streams are ultimately determined largely by historical land uses.

Colorado↗

Water Quality in the Great Salt Lake Basins, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming, 1998-2001

This report contains the major findings of a 1998-2001 assessment of water quality in the Great Salt Lake Basins. It is one of a series of reports by the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program that present major findings in 51 major river basins and aquifer systems across the Nation. In these reports, water quality is discussed in terms of local, State, and regional issues. Conditions in a particular basin or aquifer system are compared to conditions found elsewhere and to selected national benchmarks, such as those for drinking-water quality and the protection of aquatic organisms. This report is intended for individuals working with water-resource issues in Federal, State, or local agencies, universities, public interest groups, or in the private sector. The information will be useful in addressing a number of current issues, such as the effects of agricultural and urban land use on water quality, human health, drinking water, source-water protection, hypoxia and excessive growth of algae and plants, pesticide registration, and monitoring and sampling strategies. This report is also for individuals who wish to know more about the quality of streams and ground water in areas near where they live, and how that water quality compares to water quality in other areas across the Nation. The water-quality conditions in the Great Salt Lake Basins summarized in this report are discussed in detail in other reports that can be accessed at http://ut.water.usgs.gov. Detailed technical information, data and analyses, collection and analytical methodology, models, graphs, and maps that support the findings presented in this report in addition to reports in this series from other basins can be accessed at the national NAWQA Web site http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa.

Circular↗

Strong-motion earthquake accelerograms digitization and analysis records from Lima, Peru, 1951 to 1974

This is the second of a series of reports planned to include the results of digitization and routine analyses of strong-motion earthquake accelerograms published by the U.S. Geological Survey. Serving as a model for this effort is the collection of data reports published by the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology during the years 1969 - 1975 and covering the significant records of the period from 1933 up to the San Fernando earthquake of February 9, 1971. The first of the present series of reports, Open File Report No. 76-609, covered the significant records of 1971 subsequent to the San Fernando earthquake. The present report includes the results of some ongoing work on Peru records.

Open-File Report↗

Strong-motion earthquake accelerograms digitization and analysis

This is the third of a series of reports planned to include the results of digitization and routine analyses of strong-motion earthquake accelerograms published by the U.S. Geological Survey. Serving as a model for this effort is the collection of data reports published by the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology during the years 1969 - 1975 and covering the significant records of the period from 133 up to the San Fernando earthquake of February 9, 1971. Earlier reports in the present series have covered the significant records of 1971 subsequent to San Fernando (Open file report No. 76-609) and Peru records from 1951 to 1974 (Open file report No. 77-587). The present report includes a selection of 1972 records.

Open-File Report↗

U.S. Geological Survey seismic engineering data report, 1974-75 records; strong-motion earthquake accelerograms digitization and analysis

This is the fourth of a series of reports planned to include the results of digitization and routine analyses of strong-motion earthquake accelerograms published by the U.S. Geological Survey. Serving as a model for this effort is the collection of data reports published by the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology during the years 1969 - 1975 and covering the significant records of the period from 1933 up to the San Fernando earthquake of February 9, 1971. Earlier reports in the present series have covered records from 1971, Peru, and 1972 (USGS Open File Report Nos. 76-609, 77-587, and 78-941, respectively). The present report includes a selection of 1974 and 1975 records.

Open-File Report↗