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At least 667 records · Page 37Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Multilevel learning in the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests: 20 years and counting

In 1995, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service implemented an adaptive harvest management program (AHM) for the sport harvest of midcontinent mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ). The program has been successful in reducing long-standing contentiousness in the regulatory process, while integrating science and policy in a coherent, rigorous, and transparent fashion. After 20 years, much has been learned about the relationship among waterfowl populations, their environment, and hunting regulations, with each increment of learning contributing to better management decisions. At the same time, however, much has been changing in the social, institutional, and environmental arenas that provide context for the AHM process. Declines in hunter numbers, competition from more pressing conservation issues, and global-change processes are increasingly challenging waterfowl managers to faithfully reflect the needs and desires of stakeholders, to account for an increasing number of institutional constraints, and to (probabilistically) predict the consequences of regulatory policy in a changing environment. We review the lessons learned from the AHM process so far, and describe emerging challenges and ways in which they may be addressed. We conclude that the practice of AHM has greatly increased an awareness of the roles of social values, trade-offs, and attitudes toward risk in regulatory decision-making. Nevertheless, going forward the waterfowl management community will need to focus not only on the relationships among habitat, harvest, and waterfowl populations, but on the ways in which society values waterfowl and how those values can change over time.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2009

Sustaining visitor use in protected areas: Future opportunities in recreation ecology research based on the USA experience

Recreation ecology, the study of environmental consequences of outdoor recreation activities and their effective management, is a relatively new field of scientific study having emerged over the last 50 years. During this time, numerous studies have improved our understanding of how use-related, environmental and managerial factors affect ecological conditions and processes. Most studies have focused on vegetation and soil responses to recreation-related trampling on trails and recreation sites using indicators such as percent vegetation cover and exposed mineral soil. This applied approach has and will continue to yield important information for land managers. However, for the field to advance, more attention needs to be given to other ecosystem attributes and to the larger aspects of environmental conservation occurring at landscape scales. This article is an effort at initiating a dialog on needed advances in the field. We begin by reviewing broadly generalizable knowledge of recreation ecology, to separate what is known from research gaps. Then, based on the authors’ perspective of research in the USA and North America, several research directions are suggested as essential for continued progress in this field including theoretical development, broadening scale, integration with other disciplines, and examination of synergistic effects.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2015

Water-budgets and recharge-area simulations for the Spring Creek and Nittany Creek Basins and parts of the Spruce Creek Basin, Centre and Huntingdon Counties, Pennsylvania, Water Years 2000–06

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with ClearWater Conservancy and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection to develop a hydrologic model to simulate a water budget and identify areas of greater than average recharge for the Spring Creek Basin in central Pennsylvania. The model was developed to help policy makers, natural resource managers, and the public better understand and manage the water resources in the region. The Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW model (GSFLOW), which is an integration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Modular Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW-NWT), was used to simulate surface water and groundwater in the Spring Creek Basin for water years 2000–06. Because the groundwater and surface-water divides for the Spring Creek Basin do not coincide, the study area includes the Nittany Creek Basin and headwaters of the Spruce Creek Basin. The hydrologic model was developed by the use of a stepwise process: (1) develop and calibrate a PRMS model and steady-state MODFLOW-NWT model; (2) re-calibrate the steady-state MODFLOW-NWT model using potential recharge estimates simulated from the PRMS model, and (3) integrate the PRMS and MODFLOW-NWT models into GSFLOW. The individually calibrated PRMS and MODFLOW-NWT models were used as a starting point for the calibration of the fully coupled GSFLOW model. The GSFLOW model calibration was done by comparing observations and corresponding simulated values of streamflow from 11 streamgages and groundwater levels from 16 wells. The cumulative water budget and individual water budgets for water years 2000–06 were simulated by using GSFLOW. The largest source and sink terms are represented by precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. For the period simulated, a net surplus in the water budget was computed where inflows exceeded outflows by about 1.7 billion cubic feet (0.47 inches per year over the basin area); storage increased by about the same amount to balance the budget. The rate and distribution of recharge throughout the Spring Creek, Nittany Creek, and Spruce Creek Basins is variable as a result of the high degree of hydrogeologic heterogeneity and karst features. The greatest amount of recharge was simulated in the carbonate-bedrock valley, near the toe slopes of Nittany and Tussey Mountains, in the Scotia Barrens, and along the area coinciding with the Gatesburg Formation. Runoff extremes were observed for water years 2001 (dry year) and 2004 (wet year). Simulated average recharge rates (water reaching the saturated zone as defined in GSFLOW) for 2001 and 2004 were 5.4 in/yr and 22.0 in/yr, respectively. Areas where simulations show large variations in annual recharge between wet and dry years are the same areas where simulated recharge was large. Those areas where rates of groundwater recharge are much higher than average, and are capable of accepting substantially greater quantities of recharge during wet years, might be considered critical for maintaining the flow of springs, stream base flow, or the source of water to supply wells. The slopes of the Bald Eagle, Tussey, and Nittany Mountains are relatively insensitive to variations in recharge, primarily because of reduced infiltration rates and steep slopes.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2012

Detecting insect pollinator declines on regional and global scales

Recently there has been considerable concern about declines in bee communities in agricultural and natural habitats. The value of pollination to agriculture, provided primarily by bees, is >$200 billion/year worldwide, and in natural ecosystems it is thought to be even greater. However, no monitoring program exists to accurately detect declines in abundance of insect pollinators; thus, it is difficult to quantify the status of bee communities or estimate the extent of declines. We used data from 11 multiyear studies of bee communities to devise a program to monitor pollinators at regional, national, or international scales. In these studies, 7 different methods for sampling bees were used and bees were sampled on 3 different continents. We estimated that a monitoring program with 200-250 sampling locations each sampled twice over 5 years would provide sufficient power to detect small (2-5%) annual declines in the number of species and in total abundance and would cost U.S.$2,000,000. To detect declines as small as 1% annually over the same period would require >300 sampling locations. Given the role of pollinators in food security and ecosystem function, we recommend establishment of integrated regional and international monitoring programs to detect changes in pollinator communities.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2025

Predicting niche spaces of expanding Evening Bat (Nycticeius humeralis) populations following white-nose syndrome establishment

Observations of the Evening Bat ( Nycticeius humeralis ), a species historically distributed abundantly throughout the southeastern United States, are speculated to have increased in the Midwest. One hypothesis for this expansion in geographic distribution is that local extirpations of other bat species resulted in the expanded realized niche spaces for evening bats. In Indiana, such niche spaces may have been created by declines in populations of the Northern Long-eared Bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ), Indiana Bat ( M. sodalis ), Little Brown Bat ( M. lucifugus ), Big Brown Bat ( Eptesicus fuscus ), and the Tri-colored Bat ( Perimyotis subflavus ) due to white-nose syndrome (WNS). Our goal was to estimate the occupancy of Evening Bat in Indiana post-WNS establishment relative to the occupancy of other bat species before significant population declines caused by WNS. We expected that indices of occupancy of nearly extirpated species pre-WNS establishment would best predict current Evening Bat observations, and this would elucidate the niche space evening bats are now filling. We hypothesized that Evening Bat populations may be expanding their geographic range due to compensatory community dynamics, and that their realized niche space may be expanding in part due to losses of other bat species from WNS. We constructed multi-season Bayesian occupancy models using informative priors and integrative prior knowledge to test our predictions. We found that evening bats are occupying the niche space they were already occupying pre-WNS establishment. Furthermore, our results indicate that evening bats may be filling the niche space left behind by Myotis spp. ( M. sodalis and M. lucifigus ). These results can help us understand the dynamics of bat communities in a post-WNS establishment landscape and may also help to inform conservation of imperiled Myotis species.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2021

A decision-analytical framework for developing harvest regulations

The development of harvest regulations for fish or wildlife is a complex decision that needs to weigh multiple objectives, consider a set of alternative regulatory options, integrate scientific understanding about the population dynamics of the harvested species as well as the human response to regulations, account for uncertainty, and provide an avenue for feedback from monitoring programs. The author describes how the field of decision analysis provides a framework for structuring such decisions and tools for navigating the components. At the center of any harvest management endeavor is a set of objectives that may include providing harvest opportunity, conserving the harvested population long into the future, and satisfying hunters, anglers, or trappers; tools from multi-criteria decision analysis are useful in finding the right balance among competing objectives. The population dynamics of harvested populations are often stochastic; tools from risk analysis and dynamic optimization can be used to find state-dependent policies that manage variation. Finally, harvest regulations are often set in the face of uncertainty; value-of-information methods can be used to evaluate the importance of that uncertainty, and adaptive management methods can be used to reduce it.

Book chapter↗
USGS2007

Description and User Manual for a Web-Based Interface to a Transit-Loss Accounting Program for Monument and Fountain Creeks, El Paso and Pueblo Counties, Colorado

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs Utilities, the Colorado Water Conservation Board, and the El Paso County Water Authority, began a study in 2004 with the following objectives: (1) Apply a stream-aquifer model to Monument Creek, (2) use the results of the modeling to develop a transit-loss accounting program for Monument Creek, (3) revise an existing accounting program for Fountain Creek to easily incorporate ongoing and future changes in management of return flows of reusable water, and (4) integrate the two accounting programs into a single program and develop a Web-based interface to the integrated program that incorporates simple and reliable data entry that is automated to the fullest extent possible. This report describes the results of completing objectives (2), (3), and (4) of that study. The accounting program for Monument Creek was developed first by (1) using the existing accounting program for Fountain Creek as a prototype, (2) incorporating the transit-loss results from a stream-aquifer modeling analysis of Monument Creek, and (3) developing new output reports. The capabilities of the existing accounting program for Fountain Creek then were incorporated into the program for Monument Creek and the output reports were expanded to include Fountain Creek. A Web-based interface to the new transit-loss accounting program then was developed that provided automated data entry. An integrated system of 34 nodes and 33 subreaches was integrated by combining the independent node and subreach systems used in the previously completed stream-aquifer modeling studies for the Monument and Fountain Creek reaches. Important operational criteria that were implemented in the new transit-loss accounting program for Monument and Fountain Creeks included the following: (1) Retain all the reusable water-management capabilities incorporated into the existing accounting program for Fountain Creek; (2) enable daily accounting and transit-loss computations for a variable number of reusable return flows discharged into Monument Creek at selected locations; (3) enable diversion of all or a part of a reusable return flow at any selected node for purposes of storage in off-stream reservoirs or other similar types of reusable water management; (4) and provide flexibility in the accounting program to change the number of return-flow entities, the locations at which the return flows discharge into Monument or Fountain Creeks, or the locations to which the return flows are delivered. The primary component of the Web-based interface is a data-entry form that displays data stored in the accounting program input file; the data-entry form allows for entry and modification of new data, which then is rewritten to the input file. When the data-entry form is displayed, up-to-date discharge data for each station are automatically computed and entered on the data-entry form. Data for native return flows, reusable return flows, reusable return flow diversions, and native diversions also are entered automatically or manually, if needed. In computing the estimated quantities of reusable return flow and the associated transit losses, the accounting program uses two sets of computations. The first set of computations is made between any two adjacent streamflow-gaging stations (termed 'stream-segment loop'); the primary purpose of the stream-segment loop is to estimate the loss or gain in native discharge between the two adjacent streamflow-gaging stations. The second set of computations is made between any two adjacent nodes (termed 'subreach loop'); the actual transit-loss computations are made in the subreach loop, using the result from the stream-segment loop. The stream-segment loop is completed for a stream segment, and then the subreach loop is completed for each subreach within the segment. When the subreach loop is completed for all subreaches within a stream segment, the stream-segment loop is initiated for the ne

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Red knot stopover population size and migration ecology at Delaware Bay, USA, 2022

Red Knots (Calidris canutus rufa) stop at Delaware Bay on the mid-Atlantic coast of North America during northward migration to feed on eggs of horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus). In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the number of Red Knots found at Delaware Bay declined from ~50,000 to ~13,000. Horseshoe crabs have been harvested for use as bait in eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon) fisheries since at least 1990, and some avian conservation biologists hypothesized that horseshoe crab harvest levels in the 1990s prevented sufficient refueling for successful migration to the breeding grounds, nesting, and survival for the remainder of the annual cycle. Since 2013, the harvest of horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay region has been managed using an Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) framework. The objective of the ARM framework is to manage sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs while maintaining ecosystem integrity and supporting Red Knot recovery with adequate stopover habitat for Red Knots and other migrating shorebirds. For annual harvest recommendations, the ARM framework requires annual estimates of horseshoe crab population size and the Red Knot stopover population size. We conducted a mark-recapture-resight investigation to estimate the passage population of Red Knots at Delaware Bay in 2022. We used a Bayesian analysis of a Jolly-Seber model, which accounts for turnover in the population and the probability of detection during surveys. The 2022 Red Knot mark-resight dataset

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2026

Life history traits and population dynamics of Freshwater Drum across large river gradients

Objective Monitoring and assessment of nongame native fishes is limited, but conservation interest in these species is growing. Freshwater Drum Aplodinotus grunniens are a wide-ranging species that serve important functional roles and could serve as an indicator for similar but less common species. Our overall objectives were to quantify and compare population dynamic rates and life history of Freshwater Drum among study reaches in the upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers and relate these metrics to hypothesized environmental and anthropogenic factors. Methods We integrated recently collected age data with monitoring data to estimate age and size distributions, growth curves, maturation schedules, mortality rates, and young-to-adult ratios of Freshwater Drum in six study reaches spanning 1,500 km of river. Principal component analyses and linear regression were used to relate environmental and anthropogenic gradients (latitude, commercial harvest, hydrologic dynamics, primary productivity) to life history traits and population dynamic rates. Results We found latitudinal gradients in life history traits and population dynamic rates whereby Freshwater Drum in upstream, higher-latitude study reaches generally exhibited later maturity, slower growth, smaller maximum size, and lower mortality rates compared with those in lower-latitude study reaches. Further, young-to-adult ratios positively corresponded with chlorophyll- a concentration. No clear relationships were apparent between population dynamic rates and hydrologic variation or commercial harvest. Conclusions Latitude is an important structuring component of life history traits and population dynamics of Freshwater Drum in the upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers likely due to both temperature seasonality and disturbance regimes. The presence of demographic structure in a widespread, common species such as Freshwater Drum suggests similar patterns likely exist in other long-lived native fishes.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

Milkweed and floral resource availability for monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in the United States

The global decline of pollinators, particularly insects, underscores the importance of enhanced monitoring of their populations and habitats. However, monitoring some pollinator habitat is challenging due to widespread species distributions and shifts in habitat requirements through seasons and life stages. The monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus ), a migratory insect pollinator that breeds widely throughout North America, presents a unique case study for testing a sampling framework to overcome these challenges. Monarchs exhibit discrete resource needs across life stages (e.g., larval requirement for milkweed, adult requirement for floral nectar), utilizing many land use types across their extensive geographic range during breeding and migration seasons. The Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program (IMMP) uses a standardized protocol with a generalized random tessellation stratified (GRTS) sampling design to gather spatially balanced and ecologically representative information on monarch habitats within the United States. The IMMP is applicable to various land use types and habitats used by breeding monarchs and may be extended to sites outside of the GRTS design to collect data on non-random sites of interest, such as legacy or conservation sites. Additionally, the IMMP’s modular design and publicly available training allows for broad participation, including involvement from community scientists. Here, we summarize habitat metrics (milkweed and floral resources) across 1,233 sites covering much of the monarch’s breeding range. We examine variation in milkweed density and floral resource availability on probabilistic (random) and non-probabilistic (convenience) samples and among land use types (site types). Additionally, we assess resource availability within core geographies for monarch breeding and migration, specifically within the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Monarch Conservation Units (western, northern, and southern United States). Milkweed density, floral frequency, and floral richness were higher on non-random sites and in the North region. Among site types, milkweed density was highest on Rights-of-Way and Unclassified Grassland, while floral frequency was lowest on Rights-of-Way. The IMMP represents the first field-based habitat monitoring program of this scale for monarchs, yielding a robust dataset on monarchs and their habitats across their breeding range and offering a framework for surveying the habitat of insect species with diverse habitat requirements or widespread distributions.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2023

Red Knot stopover population size and migration ecology at Delaware Bay, USA, 2023

Red Knots ( Calidris canutus rufa ) stop at Delaware Bay on the mid-Atlantic coast of North America during northward migration to feed on eggs of horseshoe crabs ( Limulus polyphemus ). We conducted a mark-recapture-resight investigation to estimate the passage population of Red Knots at Delaware Bay in 2023. We used a Bayesian analysis of a Jolly-Seber model, which accounts for turnover in the population and the probability of detection during surveys. The 2023 passage population size was estimated at 39,361 (95% credible interval: 33,724–47,556). Although there is broad overlap in the credible intervals for population estimates from 2020–2023, the population estimate for 2023 was below 40,000 birds for only the second time since 2011. Horseshoe crabs have been harvested for use as bait in eel ( Anguilla rostrata ) and whelk ( Busycon ) fisheries since at least 1990. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the number of Red Knots counted during aerial surveys at Delaware Bay declined from ~50,000 to ~13,000 and some avian conservation biologists hypothesized that horseshoe crab harvest levels in the 1990s prevented sufficient refueling for successful migration to the Arctic breeding grounds, reproduction, and survival for the remainder of the annual cycle. Since 2013, the harvest of horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay region has been managed using an Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) framework. The objective of the ARM framework is to manage sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs while maintaining ecosystem integrity and supporting Red Knot recovery with adequate stopover habitat for Red Knots and other migrating shorebirds. For annual harvest recommendations, the ARM framework requires annual estimates of horseshoe crab population size and the Red Knot stopover population size. The 2023 population size estimate will inform harvest recommendations in the next management cycle for decision making by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2026

Composite samples for perfluorooctanesulfonate in fish may change contaminant threshold decisions

The widespread occurrence and persistence of the per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the environment may pose significant health risks to humans. Fish consumption is a direct pathway for exposure, prompting extensive monitoring. In the United States and Europe, fish consumption advisories for PFAS generally focus on perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), the most frequent and abundant PFAS compound reported in fish. However, PFAS analysis is costly, leading monitoring programs to frequently use composite samples (i.e., combining different fish of the same species). This financial saving comes at an analytical cost of lost information on individual variation. It is unclear how this may influence threshold-based decisions. To test this, we used a modeling approach (i.e., Monte Carlo) based on aggregated data distributions from freshwater fish species. We simulated the measurement of PFOS for individual fish compared to composite means (three, five, and 10 fish) at different levels of error structure. These values were then compared to a typical do-not-eat threshold of 200 ng•g wet mass −1 and four metrics were estimated: (i) the probability of detecting a PFOS concentration above the threshold, (ii) the maximum simulated PFOS concentration, (iii) the number of false negative samples, and (iv) the rate of false negative samples. These results show that the probability of assigning PFOS levels above or below the threshold is shifted by masking individual value contributions in a composite sample. Because true individual contaminant loads are variable, composite sampling is a more conservative metric for contaminant thresholds. The model suggested that the greater the variability, the lower the detection probability for truly contaminated samples. Our study may help to inform sampling for monitoring programs aimed at managing human exposure to PFAS.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗
USGS2023

Perception and trust influence acceptance for black bears more than bear density or conflicts

Introduction: To sustain black bear (Ursus americanus) populations, wildlife managers should understand the coupled socio-ecological systems that influence acceptance capacity for bears. Method: In a study area encompassing a portion of New York State, we spatially matched datasets from three sources: human-bear conflict reports between 2006 and 2018, estimates of local bear density in 2017–2018, and responses to a 2018 property owner survey (n=1,772). We used structural equation modeling to test hypothesized relationships between local human-bear conflict, local bear density, and psychological variables. Results: The final model explained 57% of the variance in acceptance. The effect of bear population density on acceptance capacity for bears was relatively small and was mediated by a third variable: perception of proximity to the effects of human-bear interactions. The variables that exerted a direct effect on acceptance were perception of bear-related benefits, perception of bear-related risks, perceived proximity to effects of human-bear interactions, and being a hunter. Perception of bear-related benefits had a greater effect on acceptance than perception of bear-related risks. Perceived proximity to effects of human-bear interactions was affected by local bear density, but also was affected by social trust. Increased social trust had nearly the same effect on perceived proximity as decreased bear density. Social trust had the greatest indirect effect on acceptance of any variable in the model. Discussion: Findings suggest wildlife agencies could maintain public acceptance for bears through an integrated approach that combines actions to address bear-related perceptions and social trust along with active management of bear populations.

New York↗
USGS2022

Teams, networks, and networks of networks advancing our understanding and conservation of inland waters

Networks are defined as groups of interconnected people and things, and by this definition, networks play a major role in the science of inland waters. In this article, we bring the latest social network research to understand and improve inland waters science and conservation outcomes. What we found is that relationships matter. Different teams and networks have different objectives and lifespans. Consider this: Data collection networks may persist for decades, whereas knowledge-generating teams may exist only for months. The structure of connections in a network determines how easily information or resources can flow or pass through a network, which then influences the ability of the network to accomplish work like creating and applying new knowledge, integrating knowledge across fields, or coordinating collective action. When independent networks designed around different purposes become connected to achieve new goals, a network of networks is formed, where each layer is a unique network defined by social, geographic, and temporal boundaries and distinct types of connections. This structure has a lot of potential for transformative work, but is especially susceptible to failure if one of the cross-network connections fails. From the smallest of inland waters research teams to the largest, multi-institutional, international collaborations, an understanding of how the connections between people are created and maintained can be used to set up conditions for success.

Book chapter↗
USGS2016

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2015 annual report

This is the eighth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In 2015, USGS scientists continued 24 WLCI projects in 5 categories: (1) acquiring and analyzing resource-condition data to form a foundation for understanding and monitoring landscape conditions and projecting changes; (2) using new technologies to improve the scope and accuracy of landscape-scale monitoring and assessments, and applying them to monitor indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms that drive wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them to use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. Of the 24 projects, 21 were ongoing, including those that entered new phases or more in-depth lines of inquiry, 2 were new, and 1 was completed. A highlight of 2015 was the WLCI science conference sponsored by the USGS, Bureau of Land Management, and National Park Service in coordination with the Wyoming chapter of The Wildlife Society. Of 260 participants, 41 were USGS professionals representing 13 USGS science centers, field offices, and Cooperative Wildlife Research Units. Major themes of USGS presentations included using new technologies for developing more efficient research protocols for modeling and monitoring natural resources, researching effects of energy development and other land uses on wildlife species and habitats of concern, and modeling species distributions, population trends, habitat use, and effects of land-use changes. There was also a special session on the effectiveness of Wyoming’s Sage-Grouse Executive Order. Combined, USGS presentations provided WLCI partners with a wealth of information and conservation tools. The project completed in 2015 yielded an index of important agricultural lands in the WLCI region. The index improves upon existing measures of agricultural productivity and provides planners and managers with additional values to consider when making decisions about land use and conservation actions. The two new projects include an analysis of satellite imagery to quantify sagebrush productivity and mortality, and an evaluation of how groundwater and small streams interact in the upper Green River Basin. Initiated in response to concern among WLCI partners that large areas of sagebrush appear to have died recently, the sagebrush study objectives are to assess effects of these mortality events on overall sagebrush ecosystem productivity, evaluate the feasibility of using satellite imagery to detect patterns in sagebrush mortality over time, and identify factors driving these mortality events. The groundwater-streamflow interaction study is being conducted by hydrologists and fish ecologists to better understand how groundwater-streamflow interactions are affected by energy-resource development and how native fish communities are affected by these factors. Expected outcomes of both new projects will provide WLCI partners with additional information and decision-support tools. Highlights of ongoing science foundation activities included simulations of nine alternative build-out scenarios for oil and gas development and an associated online fact sheet that explains how the simulations were conducted, with an applied example for the Atlantic Rim. Also completed in 2015 was an update of the USGS online inventory of mineral resources data, and publication of a USGS uranium resource survey for the WLCI region. Combined, the outcomes of this work provide decisionmakers and managers with important baseline information for existing and (or) future planning and monitoring efforts. Terrestrial monitoring activities in 2015 emphasized the use of satellite data in combination with other technologies and field data to monitor, assess, and (or) forecast distribution patterns and (or) trends in sagebrush ecosystems, seasonal and migration stopover habitats used by mule deer and elk, and semi-arid aspen woodlands. Several professional papers detailing new monitoring models and results have been published. Combined, this and related work will help managers understand distribution patterns and trends among priority habitats, identify areas in need of restoration or conservation, and monitor the effectiveness of habitat-management actions. Aquatic monitoring activities entailed not only the new groundwater-streamflow interaction study already mentioned, but also continued monitoring with streamgages paired with nearby wells in the Green River Basin to assess groundwater effects on streamflow and surface water temperatures. A map that portrays groundwater levels and general direction of flow in the Green River Basin was published as well . Overall, outcomes of USGS hydrological research and monitoring will inform WLCI partners about water resources in the WLCI region and help to explain fish-community responses to energy-resource development. In 2015, USGS terrestrial wildlife ecologists continued to make crucial strides towards better understanding wildlife species responses to energy-resource development and other land-use changes. This body of research includes six taxa that require or heavily depend on sagebrush habitats: sage-grouse, pygmy rabbits, 3 songbird species, and mule deer. Native fish communities are also being evaluated. Approaches include modeling and mapping wildlife species distributions, abundances, and trends; using satellite and other technologies to track wildlife seasonal movements; conducting successive phases of research that build on the knowledge gained through prior phases to reveal the specific factors or thresholds that drive population- or individual-level responses to changes; and conducting population viability analyses. Additionally, wildlife habitat association models for pygmy rabbit and sage-grouse were combined with the oil and gas build-out scenarios to project species responses to alternative energy development scenarios. Outcomes of the wildlife response research are helping decisionmakers and managers identify specific factors that contribute to species population trends, the potential for spatial overlap between important wildlife habitats and proposed energy-resource development, locations of priority habitats for restoration and conservation, and more. Data and WLCI Web site management highlights of 2015 included not only ongoing software upgrades, but also an update of the datasets displayed in two of the online products developed for the WLCI effort: (1) a map of 15,532 oil and natural gas well pad scars and other features associated with oil and gas extraction, and (2) a map of oil and gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production, both for southwestern Wyoming. In addition, a map viewer was developed for a previously published map of coal and wind production in relation to sage-grouse distribution and core management areas in southwestern Wyoming. Combined, these maps place valuable decision-support tools in the hands of WLCI partners. The USGS coordination efforts on behalf of the WLCI in 2015 included significant work on planning and executing the WLCI science conference. They also included ongoing efforts to support Local Project Development Teams and the WLCI Coordination Team (CT) with developing conservation priorities and strategies, identifying priority areas for future conservation actions, supporting the evaluation and ranking of conservation projects, and evaluating the ways in which proposed habitat projects relate to WLCI priorities. In 2015, the USGS also assisted the WLCI CT with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan.

Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Emotions and political identity predict public acceptance of urban deer management

Addressing public preferences can enhance wildlife management effectiveness and reduce backlash. We conducted novel research on public acceptance of wildlife management by accounting for the role of underexplored drivers including emotion and political identity across an urban-to-rural gradient. Using data from a 2022 survey about white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in Durham County, North Carolina, we analyzed drivers of acceptance for three management strategies: passive management, lethal management by hunting, and lethal management by professionals. Support for deer management varied across the urban-to-rural gradient, as rural residents favored hunting but were less supportive of passive management compared to urban and suburban residents. Emotions and general attitudes toward deer were the strongest predictors of management acceptance. Support for passive management was higher among residents with more positive emotions toward deer, whereas support for lethal strategies was higher among those with more negative emotions. Additionally, political identity emerged as a complex yet influential factor in shaping support for lethal management. Conservative respondents exhibited a higher acceptance of hunting, whereas liberal respondents exhibited a higher acceptance of professional sharpshooting. Collectively, our results demonstrate the ways in which emotions, politics, and other socio-demographic factors interact to influence public support for deer management across the urban–rural gradient. When direct experience with wildlife is lacking (e.g., in urban areas), emotions may act as heuristic guides that shape preferences. Managers aiming to increase deer management acceptability could integrate insights about emotional, political, and demographic drivers of public management support in communication efforts, potentially rendering urban deer management more effective.

North Carolina↗
USGS2014

A hierarchical community occurrence model for North Carolina stream fish

The southeastern USA is home to one of the richest—and most imperiled and threatened—freshwater fish assemblages in North America. For many of these rare and threatened species, conservation efforts are often limited by a lack of data. Drawing on a unique and extensive data set spanning over 20 years, we modeled occurrence probabilities of 126 stream fish species sampled throughout North Carolina, many of which occur more broadly in the southeastern USA. Specifically, we developed species-specific occurrence probabilities from hierarchical Bayesian multispecies models that were based on common land use and land cover covariates. We also used index of biotic integrity tolerance classifications as a second level in the model hierarchy; we identify this level as informative for our work, but it is flexible for future model applications. Based on the partial-pooling property of the models, we were able to generate occurrence probabilities for many imperiled and data-poor species in addition to highlighting a considerable amount of occurrence heterogeneity that supports species-specific investigations whenever possible. Our results provide critical species-level information on many threatened and imperiled species as well as information that may assist with re-evaluation of existing management strategies, such as the use of surrogate species. Finally, we highlight the use of a relatively simple hierarchical model that can easily be generalized for similar situations in which conventional models fail to provide reliable estimates for data-poor groups.

North Carolina↗
USGS2015

Understanding protected area resilience: a multi-scale, social-ecological approach

Protected areas (PAs) remain central to the conservation of biodiversity. Classical PAs were conceived as areas that would be set aside to maintain a natural state with minimal human influence. However, global environmental change and growing cross-scale anthropogenic influences mean that PAs can no longer be thought of as ecological islands that function independently of the broader social-ecological system in which they are located. For PAs to be resilient (and to contribute to broader social-ecological resilience), they must be able to adapt to changing social and ecological conditions over time in a way that supports the long-term persistence of populations, communities, and ecosystems of conservation concern. We extend Ostrom's social-ecological systems framework to consider the long-term persistence of PAs, as a form of land use embedded in social-ecological systems, with important cross-scale feedbacks. Most notably, we highlight the cross-scale influences and feedbacks on PAs that exist from the local to the global scale, contextualizing PAs within multi-scale social-ecological functional landscapes. Such functional landscapes are integral to understand and manage individual PAs for long-term sustainability. We illustrate our conceptual contribution with three case studies that highlight cross-scale feedbacks and social-ecological interactions in the functioning of PAs and in relation to regional resilience. Our analysis suggests that while ecological, economic, and social processes are often directly relevant to PAs at finer scales, at broader scales, the dominant processes that shape and alter PA resilience are primarily social and economic.

Ecological Applications↗