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USGS2021

Upland burning and grazing as strategies to offset climate-change effects on wetlands

Wetland ecosystems perform a multitude of services valued by society and provide critical habitat for migratory birds and other wildlife. Despite their importance, wetlands have been lost to different local, regional, and global drivers. Remaining wetlands are extremely sensitive to changing temperature and precipitation regimes. Management of grassland areas in wetland catchments may be an effective strategy for counteracting potentially negative impacts of climate change on wetlands. Our objective was to estimate the effects of climate changes on wetland hydrology, and to explore strategies for increasing surface-water inputs to wetlands. We coupled a field study with process-based simulation modeling of wetland-water levels. We found that climate change could decrease the number of wetlands that hold ponded water during the waterfowl breeding season by 14% under a hot wet scenario or 29% under a hot dry scenario if no upland-management actions were taken. Upland burning reduced pond losses to 9% (hot wet) and 26% (hot dry). Upland grazing resulted in the smallest loss of ponded wetlands, 6% loss under the hot-and-wet scenario and 22% loss under the hot-and-dry scenario. Overall, water inputs could be increased by either burning or grazing of upland vegetation thereby reducing pond losses during the waterfowl breeding season. While field results suggest that both grazing and burning can reduce the vegetative structure that could lead to increases in runoff in grassland catchments, our model simulations indicated that additional actions may be needed for managers to minimize future meteorologically driven water losses.

Wetlands Ecology and Management↗
USGS2021

Monitoring long-term riparian vegetation trends to inform local habitat management in a mountainous environment

Riparian ecosystems provide critical habitat for many species, yet assessment of vegetation condition at local scales is difficult to measure when considering large areas over long time periods. We present a framework to map and monitor two deciduous cover types, upland and riparian, occupying a small fraction of an expansive, mountainous landscape in north-central Wyoming. Initially, we developed broad-scale predictions of predominant woody vegetation types by integrating Landsat data into species distribution models and combining subsequent outputs into a synthesis map. Then, we evaluated a 35-year Landsat time series (1985–2019) using the Mann-Kendall test to identify significant trends in the condition of upland and riparian deciduous vegetation and assessed the rate and direction of change using the Theil-Sen estimator. Finally, we used plot level data to assess the utility of the framework to detect bottom-up controls (ungulate browse pressure and management actions) on vegetation condition. The synthesis map had an overall correct classification rate of 87% and field data indicated deciduous vegetation within 45 m of coniferous forest faces increased pressure of conifer expansion. The trend assessment identified consistent patterns operating at the landscape scale across both upland and riparian deciduous vegetation; a predominant greening trend was observed for 12 years followed by a 9-year browning trend, before switching back to a greening trend for the last 13 years of the study. Our results indicate trends are driven by the climate of the measurement period at the landscape scale. Although we did not find conclusive evidence to establish a strong link between browse pressure and satellite data, we highlight examples where prevailing trends can be overridden by local disturbance or management intervention. This framework is transferable to other understudied riparian environments throughout western North America to provide insight on ecohydrological processes and assess global and local stressors across broad spatiotemporal scales.

Wyoming↗
USGS2018

Measuring and evaluating ecological flows from streams to regions: Steps towards national coverage

Living aquatic communities are largely determined and maintained by the volume and quality of flowing waters, both within lotic systems and in receiving waters of coastal systems. However, flow is one of the most frequently and extensively altered features of rivers and streams; alteration effects are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Lotic systems vary and different fish species need different environmental conditions, and distinct problems are evident at various spatial scales. New synoptic flow and biological information now make it possible to evaluate the effects of altered flows throughout the Great Lakes Region at scales from the stream reach to the Region. We used estimates of river and streamflow and observed fish abundances to develop tools that specify the response of fish to alterations in those flows. We fit the logistic model to a cumulative fish abundance curve as a function of yield providing an empirical means to develop models of the response of cumulative fish abundance to flows. Response zones of yield for each species in each system type (based on size and thermal class) illustrate how criteria may be developed that can be used in decision‐making for management of flows. In our example application, we evaluate both the general response of brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) abundances (and fish diversity) to changes in flows and assess the sensitivity of each stream fish community to flow alteration. Mapping stream sensitivity to flow alteration throughout the US Great Lakes Region with a multiscale spatial framework showed how regional variability in sensitivity for any fish species or assemblage may be evaluated and provides managers with information to help determine where the best opportunities for protection or restoration of streamflows and associated communities exist. These results provide valuable tools and critical information to managers responsible for balancing water uses and maintaining high quality lotic ecosystems. These methods may be applied to any geographic region and can be extended nationally or globally, where flow, temperature, fish and landscape data are available.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗
USGS2024

A new water temperature modeling approach to predict thermal habitat suitability for nonnative cichlids in Florida rivers

As global temperatures increase, the spatiotemporal arrangement of thermal habitats in Florida rivers may shift, creating the potential for greater dispersal and establishment of nonnative tropical freshwater fishes. To understand how water temperature changes may affect the spatial distribution of these nonnative species, more effective water temperature prediction models are necessary. Currently, most models employ either a generalized air–water temperature relationship or require expensive and complicated tools to measure hydrometeorological factors (e.g. groundwater input). Thus, we developed a novel modeling approach that is accurate, accessible, and cost-effective in allowing fisheries managers to project water temperatures in rivers across Central and North Florida. To characterize the potential for nonnative fishes to spread northward, we evaluated two hardy and abundant species currently found primarily in South Florida: Mayan Cichlid ( Mayaheros urophthalmus ) and Oscar ( Astronotus ocellatus ). Our results show an increase in thermally suitable winter days for both species in 10 of 11 rivers studied, consistent with predicted water temperature warming under 16 climate-change scenarios spanning different levels of air temperature warming (+1 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C, +4 °C) and precipitation/groundwater thermal sensitivity (0, 0.33, 0.66, 1). Considering resource limitations, fisheries managers can use our water temperature modeling approach to predict effects of climate change on Mayan Cichlid and Oscar survival, growth, and dispersal and take actions to manage potential northward movement of these species.

Florida↗
USGS2020

Report on the workshop ‘Next Steps in Developing Nature Futures’

The workshop ‘New Narratives for Nature: operationalizing the IPBES Nature Futures Scenarios’ was organised by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models and hosted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), with support from the research team on “Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services through an Integrated Social-Ecological Systems Approach (PANCES)” based at the University of Tokyo, the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN), and the United Nations University, with generous financial support from the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. Due to the COVID-19 virus outbreak, most task force members participated through virtual means, with a subset of task force members meeting in person in Japan. The aim of the workshop was to build on the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) and on the ‘nature futures’ participatory scenario-development work initiated by the IPBES expert group on scenarios and models in the first IPBES work programme. This workshop aims to further elaborate the pre-workshop scenario narratives and to enrich discussions on the NFF. The workshop also served to start working on a more detailed task force work plan. These aims were achieved through: • Task force sessions on the further formulation of the Nature Futures narratives. • Task force sessions on the cross-comparison of draft narratives and the further elaboration of the historical-present narrative. • Organisational sessions to begin the drafting of sub-deliverable-specific work plans. • In parallel to the task force workshop, collaborative sessions between the task force and Japanese researchers took place to discuss the application of the Nature Futures Framework at the national scale, using existing national level scenarios from Japan. • A public seminar, in Japan, for a wider audience introducing the scenarios and models task force’s work, the concept of the Nature Futures Framework, and fostered discussions on the concept of transformative change. Summary of outputs of the workshop in Japan • 6 NEW scenario narratives drafts – an evolution of the pre-workshop work using the narrative templates, into a more coherent set of narratives fitting their locations in the Nature Futures Framework, including some illustrative visualisations. • A cross-comparison table – to identify the core similarities and differences across the 6 new narratives (including single narrative-between-narrative comparisons). • A discussion on how to continue further development, requiring identifying pathways to complete the 6 new narratives. • 1 historical-to-present narrative draft – also an evolution of work done prior to the workshop. The task force has yet to synthesize and shorten this draft, ensuring linkages with topics detailed in the 6 new narratives into a more digestible level. • Elaboration of a follow-up plan for further development of the narratives, post-workshop, through a “buddy” system of in-depth online discussions per and between narratives. • 1 Japan case study – on fitting national level scenarios into the Nature Futures Framework. A summary will be shared by the team who worked closely on this with the PANCES partners, which we expect will give interesting insights to the cross-scale application of the Nature Futures Framework. • Detailed work plan implementation drafts (ongoing post workshop in sub-groups).

Report↗
USGS2021

The changes in species composition mediate direct effects of climate change on future fire regimes of boreal forests in northeastern China

Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature rise, changes in seasonal precipitation, wind patterns and atmospheric stability) affect fire regimes of boreal forests by altering fire behaviour, fire seasons and fuel moisture. Climate change also alters species composition and fuel characteristics, which subsequently alter fire regimes. However, indirect effects of climate change are often simplified or neglected in the direct climate–fire relationship models and dynamic global vegetation models. This may result in high uncertainties associated with existing projections of fire regimes for climate change scenarios. Moreover, few studies have examined fire regime predictions beyond the 21st century, and consequently, how the fire regimes of boreal forests would respond to climate change at the long term (>100 years) are not clear. We develop a coupled modelling framework integrating direct and indirect effects of climate change to predict fire occurrence probability and burned area for boreal forests in northeastern China. We applied repeated measures ANOVA to quantify direct and indirect effects of climate change on fire regimes in the short (0–50 years), medium (60–100 years) and long term (150–200 years). Results showed that for the 21st century, direct effects of climate change are likely to exert a stronger influence on fire regimes than indirect effects. However, increases in fire occurrence probability and burned area will accelerate the transition of boreal forests to temperate forests in the period 2100–2200, and thereby reduce fire occurrence probability and burned area. This suggests that vegetation change will mediate direct effects of climate change on fire regimes of boreal forests at the long term. Synthesis and applications . Vegetation change will mediate direct effects of climate change on fire regimes of boreal forests at the long term. This finding suggested that policymakers may consider adaptive management by planting deciduous species to reduce fire occurrence probability and resistant management by reducing competition to promote boreal species under changing climate conditions.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2020

Colonisation of the alpine tundra by trees: Alpine neighbours assist late-seral but not early-seral conifer seedlings

Background Climate change is projected to alter the elevation and latitude of treeline globally. Seed germination and seedling survival are critical controls on treeline expansion. Neighbouring alpine plants, either through competition for resources or through altered microclimate, also affect seedlings emerging in the alpine zone. With warming, alpine plant species may interact with each other more or less strongly. Aims To determine whether establishing tree seedlings and an alpine herb are similarly sensitive to alpine plant neighbours under ambient and altered climate. Methods We imposed active heating, watering, and removed all plants adjacent to emerging conifer seedlings and an alpine herb. Results Picea engelmannii seedlings showed lower survival compared with Pinus flexilis 3 weeks following neighbour removal, and after 1 year only survived in watered plots. Pinus seedlings responded to neighbour removal by lowering the quantum yield of photosynthesis (ϕ PSII ). Contrary to expectations from the stress gradient hypothesis, survival was reduced without neighbours near the low-elevation range limit of Chionophila jamesii . Conclusions Pinus flexilis has higher expansion potential into the alpine, while Picea engelmannii requires moist conditions that could be facilitated by neighbours to expand its range. This implies likely range expansion by P. flexilis with consequences for alpine plant diversity and ecosystem function.

Colorado↗
USGS2024

Unburned habitat essential for amphibian breeding persistence following wildfire

Wildfire regimes are changing rapidly with widespread increase in the intensity, frequency, and duration of fire activity, especially in the western United States. Limited studies explore the impacts of wildfires on aquatic taxa and few focus on lentic habitats that are essential for amphibians, many of which are of conservation concern. We capitalized on existing pre-fire surveys for anuran species and resurveyed a random subset of wetlands across a gradient of soil burn severity to investigate the short-term effects of wildfire on a relict population of wood frogs in the southern Rocky Mountains. We also investigated whether maps created to support rapid post-fire emergency response activities (i.e., United States Forest Service Burned Area Emergency Response program) accurately characterize soil burn severity around small habitat features (i.e., ponds) that serve as important amphibian breeding and rearing habitat. Soil burn severity reflects fire impacts on soil and surface organic layers, including vegetation loss and changes in soil structure and function. We found that wood frog ( Lithobates sylvaticus ) breeding persistence following fires was negatively influenced by the percentage of their terrestrial habitat (100 m buffer surrounding breeding ponds) that was burned. Wood frog colonization probability of previously unoccupied ponds was low (∼ 0.10) and unaffected by soil burn severity. Importantly, we found that remotely sensed data typically produced to predict flooding and erosion at broad (catchment) scales is a poor representation of the amount and variation in soil burn severity surrounding small habitat features, suggesting that additional field sampling is necessary to understand wildfire responses for species that rely on these small habitat features. Understanding short-term geographic- and species-specific variation in response to wildfires provides the basis to explore time to recovery (e.g., when wood frogs return to burned breeding sites) or to determine if declines in breeding distributions intensify over time.

Wyoming↗
USGS1997

Organic carbon balance and net ecosystem metabolism in Chesapeake Bay

The major fluxes of organic carbon associated with physical transport and biological metabolism were compiled, analyzed and compared for the mainstem portion of Chesapeake Bay (USA). In addition, 5 independent methods were used to calculate the annual mean net ecosystem metabolism (NEM = production - respiration) for the integrated Bay. These methods, which employed biogeochemical models, nutrient mass-balances anti summation of individual organic carbon fluxes, yielded remarkably similar estimates, with a mean NEM of +50 g C m-2 yr-1 (?? SE = 751, which is approximately 8% of the estimated annual average gross primary production. These calculations suggest a strong cross-sectional pattern in NEM throughout the Bay, wherein net heterotrophic metabolism prevails in the pelagic zones of the main channel, while net autotrophy occurs in the littoral zones which flank the deeper central area. For computational purposes, the estuary was separated into 3 regions along the land-sea gradient: (1) the oligohaline Upper Bay (11% of total area); (2) the mesohaline Mid Bay (36% of area); and (3) the polyhaline Lower Bay (53% of area). A distinct regional trend in NEM was observed along this salinity gradient, with net here(atrophy (NEM = 87 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Upper Bay, balanced metabolism in the Mid Bay and net autotrophy (NEM = +92 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Lower Bay. As a consequence of overall net autotrophy, the ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to total organic nitrogen (TON) changed from DIN:TON = 5.1 for riverine inputs to DIN:TON = 0.04 for water exported to the ocean. A striking feature of this organic C mass-balance was the relative dominance of biologically mediated metabolic fluxes compared to physical transport fluxes. The overall ratio of physical TOC inputs (1) to biotic primary production (P) was 0.08 for the whole estuary, but varied dramatically from 2.3 in the Upper Bay to 0.03 in the Mid and Lower Bay regions. Similarly, ecosystem respiration was some 6-fold higher than the sum of all physical carbon sinks. This general negative correspondence between I:P ratio and NEM, which occurred among Bay regions, was also evident in data available for organic C fluxes in other coastal ecosystems. An inverse relationship between NEM and P, postulated in a previous study, did not apply to Chesapeake Bay, and closer examination of available data revealed the importance of the loading ratio of DIN:TOC as a key control on coastal NEM. It is proposed here that the general global trend of coastal eutrophication will lead to increasing values of NEM in estuaries worldwide. The management implications of this trend are complex, involving both increased potential fisheries harvest and decreased demersal habitat.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗
USGS2015

Scale-appropriate adaptation strategies and actions in the Northeast and Midwest United States

Climate Change Adaptation is a growing field within conservation and natural resource management. Actions taken toward climate change adaptation account for climate impacts and ecological responses, both current and projected into the future. These actions attempt to accomplish a number of goals, including the conservation of wildlife and ecosystems by reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience. Climate change adaptation strategies and approaches for natural resources can be thought of as part of a continuum of potential actions ranging from 1) options or goals to 2) strategies, 3) approaches, and 4) tactics. There are a range of decision support tools and processes to aid climate change adaptation. This document highlights several including the Adaptation Workbook, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments, Structured Decision Making, Adaptive Resource Management, and Scenario Planning. It will also provide case studies on the application of these tools across the Northeast and Midwest. Improved, better-integrated, and increasingly coordinated monitoring systems would be helpful to detect, track, and attribute species and habitat shifts to climate change over spatiotemporal scales. We highlight regional examples of projects and programs addressing these challenges. Illustrative case studies of climate change adaptation efforts are presented across landscape/ecoregion, state, and local scales. Appendix 4.1 provides a synthesis of over 900 general, species and habitat-specific adaptation strategies and tactics from 9 regional studies being considered or implemented across the region. The study of climate change adaptation is a relatively new and rapidly growing field focused on preparing for and responding to the current and future impacts of climate change. The goal of this chapter is to highlight different approaches, processes, and tools currently being used across the region through illustrative case studies at varying scales. In addition, we provide a synthesis of numerous species and habitat-specific adaptation strategies and actions from existing assessment reports and management plans, which is intended to showcase a range of possibilities for natural resource management under future global change. This report does not prescribe one specific approach to taking action; instead, we outline a range of adaptation 5 tactics, which will require thoughtful consideration of the needs of the species, habitat, and location, the stakeholders and partners involved, the scale that a decision or policy is being implemented at, and the financial and personnel resources available to managers.

Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ke↗
USGS2010

Measuring sediment accretion in early tidal marsh restoration

Sediment accretion is a critical indicator of initial progress in tidal marsh restoration. However, it is often difficult to measure early deposition rates, because the bottom surface is usually obscured under turbid, tidally-influenced waters. To accurately measure early sediment deposition in marshes, we developed an echosounder system consisting of a specialized acoustic profiler, differential global positioning system unit, and laptop computer mounted on a shallow-draft boat. We conducted a bathymetry at the Tubbs Setback tidal restoration site on San Pablo Bay, California, along north–south transects at 25-m intervals. Horizontal position was recorded within 1 m each second and water depth to 1 cm every 0.05 s. Bottom elevations were adjusted for tidal height with surveyed tide gages. We created detailed bathymetric maps (grid cell size: 12.5 m x 12.5 m) by interpolation with inverse distance weighting. During the third year after restoration, sediment accretion averaged 57.1 ± 1.1 cm and the estimated sediment gain was 132,900 m3. The mean difference between the elevations from the bathymetry system and the 9 sediment pins was 2.0 ± 1.0 cm. The mean difference of the intersection points of east–west and north–south survey transects was 2.1 ± 0.2 cm, which provided a measure of repeatability with changing water levels. Our echosounder system provided accurate and repeatable measurements of sediment accretion of a recently restored tidal wetland, and this system proved to be a viable tool for determining sediment deposition in marshes and assessing early restoration progress.

California↗
USGS2017

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas , which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles – hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta – exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the strongest on record – combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates ( r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years ( r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2019

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

Michigan↗
USGS2021

Establishing the foundation for the global observing system for marine life

Maintaining healthy, productive ecosystems in the face of pervasive and accelerating human impacts including climate change requires globally coordinated and sustained observations of marine biodiversity. Global coordination is predicated on an understanding of the scope and capacity of existing monitoring programs, and the extent to which they use standardized, interoperable practices for data management. Global coordination also requires identification of gaps in spatial and ecosystem coverage, and how these gaps correspond to management priorities and information needs. We undertook such an assessment by conducting an audit and gap analysis from global databases and structured surveys of experts. Of 371 survey respondents, 203 active, long-term (>5 years) observing programs systematically sampled marine life. These programs spanned about 7% of the ocean surface area, mostly concentrated in coastal regions of the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia. Seagrasses, mangroves, hard corals, and macroalgae were sampled in 6% of the entire global coastal zone. Two-thirds of all observing programs offered accessible data, but methods and conditions for access were highly variable. Our assessment indicates that the global observing system is largely uncoordinated which results in a failure to deliver critical information required for informed decision-making such as, status and trends, for the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems and provision of ecosystem services. Based on our study, we suggest four key steps that can increase the sustainability, connectivity and spatial coverage of biological Essential Ocean Variables in the global ocean: (1) sustaining existing observing programs and encouraging coordination among these; (2) continuing to strive for data strategies that follow FAIR principles (findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable); (3) utilizing existing ocean observing platforms and enhancing support to expand observing along coasts of developing countries, in deep ocean basins, and near the poles; and (4) targeting capacity building efforts. Following these suggestions could help create a coordinated marine biodiversity observing system enabling ecological forecasting and better planning for a sustainable use of ocean resources.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS1996

Developing a temporal database of urban development for the Baltimore/Washington region

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC), and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are working together as a multiagency, multidisciplinary team in developing a temporal database that documents the growth of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan region. This database consists of urban development, principal transportation, shoreline, and population density change. The urban development theme, considered a primary data layer in the study of urban land transformation resulting from human impact on the land, is the focus of this paper. The Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics and Human Impacts Study builds on earlier research efforts that mapped urban land use change for the San Francisco Bay area (Acevedo and Bell, 1994; Bell and others, 1995; Kirtland and others, 1994). In developing a temporal database (Acevedo and others, in press), the team participants hope to provide data that can be used to study patterns of urban growth; assess ecological, environmental, and climatic impacts of urban change; and model and predict future urbanization patterns and impacts (Clarke and others, 1996). Both the San Francisco and Baltimore-Washington regions were selected because of the rapid urban growth and resulting impacts on their ecosystems. The Chesapeake Bay region in particular has undergone extensive environmental agitation due to the hydrologic problems that have arisen from the increase in impermeable surfaces and structures, that is buildings and pavement that physically cover the soil. Because of the inability of water to percolate into the ground, little purification occurs by filtration. Water runs over paved surfaces and quickly washes high levels of toxins directly into the water system. Toxins like gasoline, oil, and fertilizer have dramatically affected the local streams, rivers, and the bay. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. This paper describes the techniques used to map the extent of urban areas for Phase I and does not discuss Phase II in detail because the work is still in progress. In this study, urban development is defined as areas of intensive use, with much of the land covered by structures. The built-up areas are characterized by the existence of a systematic street pattern, and the relative concentration of buildings and associated intensive use areas, such as parking lots. Using this definition, urban development does not refer to political boundaries and may include incorporated or unincorporated areas as well as military reservations. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. To build the urban component of the temporal database, a multidisciplinary team was assembled and a phased approach initiated. Expanding on procedures developed for the San Francisco Regional Study (Bell and others, 1995), the team developed data definitions, a classification scheme, compilation criteria, mapping specifications, guidelines for source materials, and metadata specifications to support development of a logically consistent dataset. Extensive documentation procedures were established to ensure consistency in data collection, and for subsequent application to other regions. Phase II was the implementation of the regional mapping effort. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. The study area for Phase I consisted of an approximate area of 15- by 15-minute segment centered around the city of Baltimore (fig. 1). Phase I was used as a prototype for the technique development and integration that the multiagency collaborative effort would require. The regional study, Phase II, encompassed a 2-degree square centered on Washington, D.C. With more than 7 million people spread across 39 counties, the Baltimore-Washington region is one the Nation's fastest growing metropolitan areas. The two cities are rapidly merging into one.

Maryland↗
USGS2018

Demographic drivers of a refugee species: Large‐scale experiments guide strategies for reintroductions of hirola

Effective reintroduction strategies require accurate estimates of vital rates and the factors that influence them. The hirola ( Beatragus hunteri ) is the rarest antelope on Earth, with a global population size of <500 individuals restricted to the Kenya–Somali border. We estimated vital rates of hirola populations exposed to varying levels of predation and rangeland quality from 2012 to 2015, and then built population matrices to estimate the finite rate of population change (λ) and demographic sensitivities. Mean survival for all age classes and population growth was highest in the low‐predation–high‐rangeland‐quality setting (λ = 1.08 ± 0.03 [mean ± SE]), and lowest in the high‐predation–low‐rangeland‐quality setting (λ = 0.70 ± 0.22). Retrospective demographic analyses revealed that increased fecundity (the number of female calves born to adult females annually) and female calf survival were responsible for higher population growth where large carnivores were absent. In contrast, variation in adult female survival was the primary contributor to differences in population growth attributable to rangeland quality. Our analyses suggest that hirola demography is driven by a combination of top‐down (predation) and bottom‐up (rangeland quality) forces, with populations in the contemporary geographic range impacted both by declining rangeland quality and predation. To enhance the chances of successful reintroductions, conservationists can consider rangeland restoration to boost both the survival and fecundity of adult females within the hirola's historical range.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2025

Forest bird population status on Saipan, a small oceanic island

Tropical oceanic islands are critical biodiversity hotspots where population monitoring can help to determine the status and trends of rare and endangered species. Saipan is the second largest island in the Mariana Islands and contains many endemic and range-restricted bird species. Surveys of forest birds were conducted on Saipan using point-transect distance sampling, starting in 1982. To determine population status for Saipan avifauna, we generated abundance estimates based on surveys conducted in 1982, 1997, 2007, and 2018. We also assessed community composition by exploring if there were changes in assemblage diversity, total forest bird abundance, and ratio of native to non-native populations over time. For the 2018 survey, there were 5791 detections of 18 species during 242 counts, with six of 18 species detected at > 50 % of the counts and with relatively high abundance, while 12 species were detected at < 50 % of the counts and were uncommon or rare. The most abundant species was Bridled White eye (nosa', Zosterops conspicillatus saypani ) at > 40 birds/ha and the least common species was the Saipan Reed Warbler (gå'ga' karisu, Acrocephalus hiwae) at < 1 bird/ha. We found that the community composition is becoming slightly more even over time and the overall community abundance is stable (around 375,000 birds), but non-native species have become more common while native species have remained stable. Results from this study can be used to inform conservation management of forest birds in Saipan and contribute to a broader understanding of forest bird status in the Marianas.

Saipan↗
USGS2019

Effects of flood inundation, invasion by Phalaris arundinacea, and nitrogen enrichment on extracellular enzyme activity in an Upper Mississippi River floodplain forest

The community structures and ecosystem functions of floodplains are primarily driven by variation in flood inundation. However, global changes, such as invasive species and nutrient enrichment, may alter the effects of flooding in these systems. We added nitrogen (N) to correspond with twice the annual atmospheric deposition rate of the south-west Wisconsin, USA region within mature floodplain forest plots and patches of an invasive grass (reed canarygrass, Phalaris arundinacea ) along a floodplain elevation gradient in an Upper Mississippi River floodplain forest. We measured soil physicochemical properties and the activity of six extracellular enzymes during 3 months that varied in flooding conditions. Multivariate analyses (distance-based redundancy analysis) revealed that floodplain elevation, month of sampling, and vegetation type were all significant predictors of variation in soil physicochemical properties, while elevation and month were significant predictors of multivariate extracellular enzyme activity (EEA). The best model for predicting EEA consisted of nitrogen availability, soil porosity, and water filled pore space. Although the categorical fertilization and invasion treatments were not significant predictors of EEA, our results suggest that their effects depend on the degree to which they modify N availability and soil moisture. In this system, spatial and temporal patterns in flooding appear to be the main driver of these properties, but N enrichment and invasion may have the potential to further modify them.

Wisconsin↗