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USGS2016

Potential effects of alterations to the hydrologic system on the distribution of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer in Broward County, Florida

To address concerns about the effects of water-resource management practices and rising sea level on saltwater intrusion, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Broward County Environmental Planning and Community Resilience Division, initiated a study to examine causes of saltwater intrusion and predict the effects of future alterations to the hydrologic system on salinity distribution in eastern Broward County, Florida. A three-dimensional, variable-density solute-transport model was calibrated to conditions from 1970 to 2012, the period for which data are most complete and reliable, and was used to simulate historical conditions from 1950 to 2012. These types of models are typically difficult to calibrate by matching to observed groundwater salinities because of spatial variability in aquifer properties that are unknown, and natural and anthropogenic processes that are complex and unknown; therefore, the primary goal was to reproduce major trends and locally generalized distributions of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer. The methods used in this study are relatively new, and results will provide transferable techniques for protecting groundwater resources and maximizing groundwater availability in coastal areas. The model was used to (1) evaluate the sensitivity of the salinity distribution in groundwater to sea-level rise and groundwater pumping, and (2) simulate the potential effects of increases in pumping, variable rates of sea-level rise, movement of a salinity control structure, and use of drainage recharge wells on the future distribution of salinity in the aquifer. Results from the simulation of historical conditions indicate that the model generally represents the observed greater westward extent of elevated salinity in the central part of the intruded area relative to the northern and southernmost parts of the intruded area. Results of sensitivity testing indicate that the extent of elevated salinity is most sensitive to pumping in areas where the source of saltwater is largely offshore, from the Atlantic Ocean, and is most sensitive to sea-level rise in areas where the source of salinity is downward leakage of brackish water from canals. Simulations of future scenarios indicate that increases in pumping near the existing interface may cause the interface to advance and decreases in pumping may cause it to retreat. Climatic effects, such as periods of prolonged drought or high precipitation, may augment or counteract long-term effects of changes in pumping on aquifer salinity at well fields. With increasing rates of sea-level rise, the freshwater-saltwater interface advances progressively inland, and flow-averaged salinities at well fields near the existing interface increase commensurately. Hypothetical southeastward (downstream) re-positioning of the existing G–54 salinity-control structure may prevent the interface from moving northwestward along and near the North New River canal, but beneficial effects are localized. Implementation of freshwater recharge wells in the city of Hallandale Beach may also have only a localized freshening effect in the aquifer and little appreciable effect on the freshwater-saltwater interface or on concentrations of salinity at well fields. Model accuracy and use are limited by uncertainty in the physical properties and boundary conditions of the system, uncertainty in historical and future conditions, and generalizations made in the mathematical relationships used to describe the physical processes of groundwater flow and transport. Because of these limitations, model results should be considered in relative rather than absolute terms. Nonetheless, model results do provide useful information on the relative scale of response of the system to changes in pumping distribution, sea-level rise, and mitigation activities.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series: Admiralty Inlet

In 2010 the Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10 initiated the Puget Sound Scientific Studies and Technical Investigations Assistance Program, designed to support research in support of implementing the Puget Sound Action Agenda. The Action Agenda was created in response to Puget Sound having been designated as one of 28 estuaries of national significance under section 320 of the U.S. Clean Water Act, and its overall goal is to restore the Puget Sound Estuary's environment by 2020. The Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project was funded by the Assistance Program request for proposals process, which also supports a large number of coastal-zone- and ocean-management issues. The issues include the recommendations of the Marine Protected Areas Work Group to the Washington State Legislature (Van Cleve and others, 2009), which endorses a Puget Sound and coast-wide marine conservation needs assessment, gap analysis of existing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) and recommendations for action. This publication is the first of four U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigation Maps that make up the Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project. The remaining three map blocks to be published in the future, located south of Admiralty Inlet, are shown in figure 1. Puget Sound is a deep, fjord-type estuary covering an area of 2,330 km 2 in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (fig. 1). It is connected to the ocean by the Strait of Juan de Fuca, a turbulent passage approximately 160 km in length and 22 km wide at its west end, expanding to over 40 km wide at its east end (Thomson, 1994). During the Pleistocene, the area was occupied several times by lobes of continental ice, resulting in a complex basin-fill of glacial and interglacial deposits that are locally as thick as 1100 m (Johnson and others, 2001). The last glaciation, called the Fraser glaciation, began after 28,800±740 14 C yr B.P. when ice started a slow expansion (Clague, 1981). At peak advance the westward Juan de Fuca lobe reached the edge of the continental shelf through the Juan de Fuca Strait shortly before 14,460±200 14 C yr B.P. (Herzer and Bornhold, 1982). The southward Puget lobe advanced to its terminal position in Puget Sound by around 14,150 14 C yr B.P. (Porter and Swanson, 1998). Ice retreated from its maximum to northern Whidbey Island by 13,650±350 14 C yr B.P. (Dethier and others, 1995). Retreating glaciers resulted in a thick sequence of ice-contact, glacial-marine sediment, and early post-glacial sediments (Linden and Schurrer, 1988). These deposits have experienced the effects of a marine transgression followed by regression, resulting in a sea-level several tens of meters lower than the present day (Linden and Schurrer, 1988). A second transgression brought sea level to about the present level by around 5,470±120 14 C yr B.P. (Clague and others, 1982) establishing the present oceanographic and geologic environment Puget Sound is separated into four interconnected basins; Whidbey, Central (Main), Hood Canal, and South (Thomson, 1994). The Whidbey, Central, and Hood Canal basins are the three main branches of the Puget Sound estuary and are separated from the Strait of Juan de Fuca by a double sill at Admiralty Inlet. The Admiralty Inlet map area includes the Inlet and a portion of the Whidbey Basin (fig. 1). The shallower South Basin is separated by a sill at Tacoma Narrows and is highly branched with numerous finger inlets. Flow within Puget Sound is dominated by tidal currents of as much as 1 m/s at Admiralty Inlet, reducing to approximately 0.5 m/s in the Central Basin (Lavelle and others, 1988). The lack of silt and clay-sized sediments in the Admiralty Inlet map area is likely a result of the strong currents (see Ground-Truth Studies for the Admiralty Inlet Map Area, sheet 3). The subtidal component of flow reaches approximately 0.1 m/s and is driven by density gradients arising from the contrast in salty ocean water at the entrance and freshwater inputs from stream flow (Lavelle and others, 1988). The total freshwater input to Puget Sound is approximately 3.4 x 10 6 m 3 /day, primarily from the Skagit River (Cannon, 1983). The subtidal circulation mostly consists of a two-layered flow in the basins with fresher water exiting at the surface and saltier water entering at depth (Ebbesmeyer and Cannon, 2001). In general, surface waters flow north and deeper waters flow south; variations arise from wind effects that can drive a surface current in the same direction as the wind, and a baroclinic response in the lower layer to about 100-m depth (Matsuura and Cannon, 1997). Oceanographic properties are influenced by temporal forcing parameters such as reduced stream flow during the 2000-01 drought that increased surface salinity and decreased differences between surface and bottom waters (Newton and others, 2003). On offshore seismic-reflection profiles, Pleistocene strata (excluding latest Pleistocene glacial and post-glacial deposits) form a distinct seismic unit, bounded below by pre-Tertiary or Tertiary basement and above by typically flat-lying latest Pleistocene to Holocene deposits that fill in erosional or depositional relief (Johnson and others, 2001). Cores from central Puget Sound have accumulation rates that range from 85 to 1200 mg/cm 2 /yr, or 0.12 to 2.4 cm/yr; the highest accumulation rates are near the southern end of central Puget Sound (Carpenter and others, 1985). Carpenter and others (1985) un-weighted arithmetic mean of accumulation rates for central Puget Sound deeper stations is 480±340 (± one standard deviation) mg/cm 2 /yr. Lavelle and others (1985) also found rates as high as 1200 mg/cm 2 /yr over the past approximately 70 years in cores in the Central Basin off of and north and south of Elliott Bay. Puget Sound basin rates are comparable to rates in midshelf silt deposits on the Washington coast north of the Columbia River (Nittrouer and others, 1979). The deep subtidal (in other words, below SCUBA depths) habitats of Puget Sound are relatively poorly known. A few subtidal surveys exist for several habitat types from the 1960s and 1970s (reviewed in Dethier, 1990), using grab and box core data. The Dethier (1990) review divides habitat up into Coast and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) substrate, water column energy, and depth zones but does not attempt to map these habitats, rather it is an inventory of habitats found in the area and the flora and fauna associated with each habitat. The approach of the Southern Salish Sea Mapping project is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data (the undersea equivalent of satellite remote-sensing data in terrestrial mapping), acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, and bottom-sediment sampling data. This approach is based in part on methods presented and data collection and product needs identified at the Washington State Seafloor Mapping Workshop (Washington State Seafloor Mapping Workshop Steering Committee, 2008), attended by coastal and marine managers and scientists. The map products display seafloor geomorphology and substrate, and identify potential marine benthic habitats. It is emphasized that the more interpretive habitat and geology maps rely on the integration of multiple, new high-resolution datasets and that mapping at small scales would not be possible without such data. Oceanographic current and wave data is not included in this analysis, however, the accompanying geographic information system (GIS) data set is designed and intended to be combined with oceanographic and biologic data sets assembled by others in the future and some of the GIS data has already been incorporated in the unpublished Nature Conservancy Benthic Habitats of Puget Sound database. This publication includes four map sheets, explanatory text, and a descriptive pamphlet. Each map sheet is published as a portable document format (PDF) file. ESRI ArcGIS compatible geotiffs (for example, bathymetry) and shapefiles (for example video observation points) will be available for download in the data catalog associated with this publication (Cochrane, 2015). An ArcGIS Project File with the symbology used to generate the map sheets is also provided. For those who do not own the full suite of ESRI GIS and mapping software, the data can be read using ESRI ArcReader, a free viewer that is available at http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcreader/index.html .

Washington↗

USGS2021

Near-field receiving-water monitoring of trace metals and a benthic community near the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant in south San Francisco Bay, California—2019

Trace-metal concentrations in sediment and in the clam Limecola petalum (formerly reported as Macoma balthica and M. petalum ), clam reproductive activity, and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure were investigated in a mudflat 1 kilometer south of the discharge of the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant (PARWQCP) in south San Francisco Bay, Calif. This report includes the data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the period January 2019 to December 2019. These data append to long-term datasets extending back to 1974. A major focus of the report is an integrated description of the 2019 data within the context of the longer, multidecadal dataset. This dataset supports the City of Palo Alto’s Near-Field Receiving-Water Monitoring Program, initiated in 1994. Significant reductions in silver and copper contamination occurred at the site in the 1980s following the implementation by PARWQCP of advanced wastewater treatment and source control measures. Since the 1990s, concentrations of these elements in surface sediments have continued to decrease, although more slowly. Silver appears to have stabilized at concentrations about twice the regional background concentration. Presently, sediment copper concentrations appear to be near the regional background level. Over the same period (1994–2019), sedimentary iron and zinc also exhibited modest declines. Sedimentary aluminum, chromium, mercury, nickel, and selenium have not exhibited any trend. Since 1994, concentrations of silver and copper in L. petalum have varied seasonally, apparently in response to a combination of site-specific metal exposures and cyclic growth and reproduction, as reported previously. Seasonal patterns for other elements, including chromium, mercury, nickel, selenium, and zinc, were generally similar in timing and magnitude as those for silver and copper. The annual growth and reproductive cycle explained a small amount of the variance in annual silver and zinc tissue metal concentrations. However, interannual trends are not apparent for any element. Biological effects of elevated silver and copper contamination at the Palo Alto site have been interpreted from data collected during and after the recession of these contaminants. Concentrations of both elements in the soft tissues of L. petalum declined with sedimentary copper and silver. This pattern was associated with changes in the reproductive activity of L. petalum , as well as the structure of the benthic invertebrate community. Reproductive activity of L. petalum increased as metal concentrations in L. petalum declined and presently is stable with almost all animals initiating reproduction in the fall and spawning the following spring. Analyses of the benthic community structure indicate that the infaunal invertebrate community has shifted from one dominated by several opportunistic species when silver and copper exposures were highest to one in which the species abundance is more evenly distributed, a pattern that indicates a more stable community that is subjected to fewer stressors. Importantly, this long-term change is unrelated to other metals and other measured environmental factors, including salinity and sediment composition. In addition, two of the opportunistic species ( Ampelisca abdita and Streblospio benedicti ) that brood their young and live on the surface of the sediment in tubes have shown a continual decline in dominance coincident with the decline in metals. Both species had short-lived rebounds in abundance in 2008, 2009, and 2010 and showed signs of increasing abundance in 2019. Heteromastus filiformis (a subsurface polychaete worm that lives in the sediment, consumes sediment and organic particles residing in the sediment, and reproduces by laying its eggs on or in the sediment) showed a concurrent increase in dominance and, in the last several years before 2008, showed a stable population. H. filiformis abundance increased slightly in 2011–2012 and returned to pre-2011 numbers in 2019. An unidentified disturbance occurred on the mudflat in early 2008 that resulted in the loss of the benthic animals, except for deep-dwelling animals like L. petalum . However, within two months of this event, animals returned to the mudflat. The resilience of the community suggested that the disturbance was not caused by a persistent toxin or anoxia. The reproductive mode of most species that were present in 2019 was indicative of species that were available either as pelagic larvae or as mobile adults. Although oviparous species were lower in number in this group, the authors hypothesize that these species will return slowly as more species move back into the area. The use of functional ecology was highlighted in the 2019 benthic community data, which showed that the animals that have now returned to the mudflat are those that can respond successfully to a physical, nontoxic disturbance. Today, community data show a mix of species that consume the sediment, or filter feed, those that have pelagic larvae that must survive landing on the sediment, and those that brood their young. USGS scientists view the 2008 disturbance event as a response by the infaunal community to an episodic natural stressor (possibly sediment accretion or a pulse of freshwater), in contrast to the long-term recovery from metal contamination. We will compare this recovery to the long-term recovery observed after the 1970s when the decline in sediment pollutants was the dominating factor.

California↗

USGS2019

Incorporating uncertainty and risk into decision making to reduce nitrogen inputs to impaired waters

This article aims to understand decision making under uncertainty and risk, with a case study on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Decision makers need to consider imperfect information on the cost and effectiveness of advanced nitrogen-removing on-site wastewater treatment systems as options to mitigate water quality degradation. Research included modeling nitrogen load reduction to impaired coastal waters from seven treatment system technologies and eliciting expert knowledge on their costs. Predictions of nitrogen load removal and cost for each technology incorporated variation in effectiveness and uncertainty in household water use, costs, and expert confidence in costs. The predictions were evaluated using the Pareto efficiency concept to reveal tradeoffs between cost and effectiveness. The stochastic dominance index was used to identify preferred technologies for risk-averse decision making, assuming no further learning is possible. Lastly, the predictions were combined into a cost-effectiveness metric to estimate the expected payoff of implementing the best treatment system in the face of uncertainty and the expected payoff of learning which treatment systems are most cost-effective over time. The expected value of perfect information was calculated as the difference between the expected payoffs. Three technologies revealed Pareto efficient tradeoffs between cost and effectiveness, whereas one technology was the preferred risk-averse option in the absence of future learning. There was a high expected value of perfect information, which could motivate adaptive management on Cape Cod. This research demonstrated decision analysis methods to guide future research and decision making toward meeting water quality objectives and reducing uncertainty.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2023

Integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan completion assessment: Restoration topic, 2015–20

Loss and degradation of sagebrush rangelands due to an accelerated invasive annual grass-wildfire cycle and other stressors are substantial management, conservation, and economic issues in the western United States. These sagebrush rangelands comprise a unique biome spanning 11 states, support over 350 wildlife species, and provide important ecosystem services that include stabilizing the economies of western communities. Impacts to sagebrush ecosystem processes over large areas due to the annual grass-wildfire cycle necessitated the development of a coordinated, science-based strategy for improving efforts to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of sagebrush rangelands, which was framed in 2015 under the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (IRFMS). Central to this effort was the development of an Actionable Science Plan (Plan) that identified 37 priority science needs (Needs) for informing the actions proposed under the 5 topics (Fire, Invasives, Restoration, Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse, Climate and Weather) that were part of the collective focus of the IRFMS. Notable keys to this effort were identification of the Needs co-produced by managers and researchers, and a focus on resulting science being “actionable.” Substantial investments aimed at fulfilling the Needs identified in the Plan have been made since its release in 2016. While the state of the science has advanced considerably, the extent to which knowledge gaps remain relative to identified Needs is relatively unknown. Moreover, new Needs have likely emerged since the original strategy as results from actionable science reveal new questions, and possible (yet untested) solutions. A quantifiable assessment of the progress made on the original science Needs can identify unresolved gaps and new information that can help inform prioritization of future research efforts. This report details a systematic literature review that evaluated how well peer-reviewed journal articles and formal technical reports published between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, addressed 10 needs (hereinafter “Needs”) identified under the Restoration topic in the Plan. The topic outlined research Needs for improving restoration success in degraded sagebrush rangelands. We established the level of progress towards addressing each Need following a standardized set of criteria, and developed summaries detailing how research objectives nested within Needs identified in the Plan (“Next Steps”) were either addressed well, partially addressed or remain outstanding (that is, addressed poorly) in the literature through 2020. Our searches resulted in the inclusion of 371 science products that at least partially addressed a Need identified in the Restoration topic. The Needs that were well and partially addressed included: the development of methods to improve seeding success of native plants after fire; evaluation of short- and long-term plant responses relative to biotic and abiotic factors following restoration treatments; assessments of long-term effects on ecosystem processes following conifer removal treatments and development of decision support tools to aid in conifer management; determination of the costs of restoration treatments relative to the benefits to sage-grouse occupancy, survival, and populations; and assessments of the factors which contribute to soil degradation and development of soil enhancement methods that enhance seed germination and seedling survival while resisting nonnative plants. Needs that were not addressed well included: the development of methods for the rapid recovery of sagebrush and native herbaceous plants following wildfire and determination of whether treatments benefit sage-grouse and mitigate impacts from fires; determination of thresholds for successful restoration across a range of environmental conditions and development of decision support tools to assist with restoration effectiveness monitoring; and development and evaluation of the utility of seed transfer zones. The information provided in this assessment will assist updating the Plan along with other science strategies.

western United States↗

USGS1992

Sampling design for spatially distributed hydrogeologic and environmental processes

A methodology for the design of sampling networks over space is proposed. The methodology is based on spatial random field representations of nonhomogeneous natural processes, and on optimal spatial estimation techniques. One of the most important results of random field theory for physical sciences is its rationalization of correlations in spatial variability of natural processes. This correlation is extremely important both for interpreting spatially distributed observations and for predictive performance. The extent of site sampling and the types of data to be collected will depend on the relationship of subsurface variability to predictive uncertainty. While hypothesis formulation and initial identification of spatial variability characteristics are based on scientific understanding (such as knowledge of the physics of the underlying phenomena, geological interpretations, intuition and experience), the support offered by field data is statistically modelled. This model is not limited by the geometric nature of sampling and covers a wide range in subsurface uncertainties. A factorization scheme of the sampling error variance is derived, which possesses certain atttactive properties allowing significant savings in computations. By means of this scheme, a practical sampling design procedure providing suitable indices of the sampling error variance is established. These indices can be used by way of multiobjective decision criteria to obtain the best sampling strategy. Neither the actual implementation of the in-situ sampling nor the solution of the large spatial estimation systems of equations are necessary. The required values of the accuracy parameters involved in the network design are derived using reference charts (readily available for various combinations of data configurations and spatial variability parameters) and certain simple yet accurate analytical formulas. Insight is gained by applying the proposed sampling procedure to realistic examples related to sampling problems in two dimensions.

Advances in Water Resources↗

USGS2014

Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the U.S. Geological Survey (USA), HDR⎪HydroQual, Inc. (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME Workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided herein. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by WHAM; specific or non-specific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors and/or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single versus multiple types of binding site on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong inter-relationships among the model parameters (log KM values, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2015

Integrated risk and recovery monitoring of ecosystem restorations on contaminated sites

Ecological restorations of contaminated sites balance the human and ecological risks of residual contamination with the benefits of ecological recovery and the return of lost ecological function and ecosystem services. Risk and recovery are interrelated dynamic conditions, changing as remediation and restoration activities progress through implementation into long-term management and ecosystem maturation. Monitoring restoration progress provides data critical to minimizing residual contaminant risk and uncertainty, while measuring ecological advancement toward recovery goals. Effective monitoring plans are designed concurrently with restoration plan development and implementation and are focused on assessing the effectiveness of activities performed in support of restoration goals for the site. Physical, chemical, and biotic measures characterize progress toward desired structural and functional ecosystem components of the goals. Structural metrics, linked to ecosystem functions and services, inform restoration practitioners of work plan modifications or more substantial adaptive management actions necessary to maintain desired recovery. Monitoring frequency, duration, and scale depend on specific attributes and goals of the restoration project. Often tied to restoration milestones, critical assessment of monitoring metrics ensures attainment of risk minimization and ecosystem recovery. Finally, interpretation and communication of monitoring findings inform and engage regulators, other stakeholders, the scientific community, and the public. Because restoration activities will likely cease before full ecosystem recovery, monitoring endpoints should demonstrate risk reduction and a successional trajectory toward the condition established in the restoration goals. A detailed assessment of the completed project's achievements, as well as unrealized objectives, attained through project monitoring, will determine if contaminant risk has been minimized, if injured resources have recovered, and if ecosystem services have been returned. Such retrospective analysis will allow better planning for future restoration goals and strengthen the evidence base for quantifying injuries and damages at other sites in the future.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

USGS2025

Dendroseismological investigation of redwood trees along the North Coast section of the San Andreas Fault

Sequoia sempervirens (coast redwood) tree rings have the potential to annually resolve late-Holocene earthquakes on the northern San Andreas Fault based on direct (e.g., physical damage) and indirect (e.g., co-seismic environmental change) impacts, but scarcity of suitable samples and challenges crossdating this long-lived species have limited progress. More precise dating of the pre-1906 (penultimate) earthquake can improve hazard assessment and understanding of rupture segmentation. We target old trees (maximum >815 yr) along the North Coast section of the fault (increment cores via rope-climbing, 11 living trees; plunge cuts, 23 stumps) and employ complementary disturbance detection methods including radial-growth averaging (tree- and series-level), cataloging anatomical indicators (e.g., traumatic resin ducts, TRD), and dating structural components (e.g., reiterated trunks, leans). Multi-centennial ring-width chronologies at Fort Ross (1569−2023) and Gualala (1397−2023) promote continued study with incomplete crossdating limiting utilization of some series. Growth pulses (reductions, releases) and TRD dispersed across the record reflect dynamic environments that obfuscate detection of earthquake signals. The 1906 earthquake did not leave strong signatures on most trees, and when it did, within-tree response varied from normal presentation to discoloration, TRD, and missing rings. Synchrony of indicators at both locations identified 1678−1680 (6 of 15 trees) and 1698−1700 (8 of 16 trees) as the strongest disturbances among dated rings in the time range of the penultimate earthquake, peaking at 1698 (15.7 % of possible growth and anatomical indicators), but the triggering mechanisms for these events are unknown.

California↗

USGS2010

Arctic sea ice decline: Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

The Arctic region is warming faster than most regions of the world due in part to increasing greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks associated with the loss of snow and ice cover. One consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades?a decline that is projected to continue by state-of-the-art models. Many stakeholders are therefore interested in how global warming may change the timing and extent of sea ice Arctic-wide, and for specific regions. To inform the public and decision makers of anticipated environmental changes, scientists are striving to better understand how sea ice influences ecosystem structure, local weather, and global climate. Here, projected changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are examined because sea ice influences the presence of, or accessibility to, a variety of local resources of commercial and cultural value. In this study, 21st century sea ice conditions in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are based on projections by 18 general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the fourth reporting period by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Sea ice projections are analyzed for each of two IPCC greenhouse gas forcing scenarios: the A1B `business as usual? scenario and the A2 scenario that is somewhat more aggressive in its CO2 emissions during the second half of the century. A large spread of uncertainty among projections by all 18 models was constrained by creating model subsets that excluded GCMs that poorly simulated the 1979-2008 satellite record of ice extent and seasonality. At the end of the 21st century (2090-2099), median sea ice projections among all combinations of model ensemble and forcing scenario were qualitatively similar. June is projected to experience the least amount of sea ice loss among all months. For the Chukchi Sea, projections show extensive ice melt during July and ice-free conditions during August, September, and October by the end of the century, with high agreement among models. High agreement also accompanies projections that the Chukchi Sea will be completely ice covered during February, March, and April at the end of the century. Large uncertainties, however, are associated with the timing and amount of partial ice cover during the intervening periods of melt and freeze. For the Bering Sea, median March ice extent is projected to be about 25 percent less than the 1979-1988 average by mid-century and 60 percent less by the end of the century. The ice-free season in the Bering Sea is projected to increase from its contemporary average of 5.5 months to a median of about 8.5 months by the end of the century. A 3-month longer ice- free season in the Bering Sea is attained by a 1-month advance in melt and a 2-month delay in freeze, meaning the ice edge typically will pass through the Bering Strait in May and January at the end of the century rather than June and November as presently observed.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Near-field receiving-water monitoring of trace metals and a benthic community near the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant in south San Francisco Bay, California—2020

Trace-metal concentrations in sediment and in the clam Limecola petalum (World Register of Marine Species, 2020; formerly reported as Macoma balthica and M. petalum ), clam reproductive activity, and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure were investigated in a mudflat 1 kilometer (km) south of the discharge of the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant (PARWQCP) in south San Francisco Bay, California. This report includes the data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for January 2020–December 2020 (Cain and others, 2022). These data append to long-term datasets extending back to 1974. A major focus of the report is an integrated description of the 2020 data within the context of the longer, multidecadal dataset. This dataset supports the City of Palo Alto’s Near-Field Receiving- Water Monitoring Program, initiated in 1994. Silver and copper contamination substantially decreased at the site in the 1980s following the implementation by PARWQCP of advanced wastewater-treatment and source-control measures. Since the 1990s, concentrations of these elements in surface sediments have continued to decrease, although more slowly. For example, from 1994 to 2020, the minimum annual mean silver concentration—0.20 milligram per kilogram (mg/kg)—was observed in multiple years. In 2020, silver concentrations ranged from 0.18 to 0.28 mg/kg. These concentrations are 2 to 3 times higher than the regional background concentration. Presently (2020), sediment-copper concentrations appear to be near the regional background level. Over the same period (1994–2020), sedimentary iron and zinc exhibited modest decreases. Sedimentary aluminum, chromium, mercury, nickel, and selenium have not exhibited any trend. Since 1994, silver and copper concentrations in L. petalum have varied seasonally, apparently in response to a combination of site-specific metal exposures and cyclic growth and reproduction, as reported previously. Seasonal patterns for other elements, including chromium, mercury, nickel, selenium, and zinc, generally were similar in timing and magnitude as those for silver and copper. Downward trends in the silver and zinc concentrations in L. petalum during 1994–2020 were evident and appeared to be related to the general physiological condition of the clam, indicated by a condition index. Biological effects of elevated silver and copper contamination at the Palo Alto site have been interpreted from data collected during and after the recession of these contaminants. Concentrations of both elements in the soft tissues of L. petalum decreased with sedimentary copper and silver. This pattern was associated with changes in the reproductive activity of L. petalum , as well as the structure of the benthic invertebrate community. Reproductive activity of L. petalum increased as metal concentrations in L. petalum decreased (Hornberger and others, 2000), and presently is stable with almost all animals initiating reproduction in the fall and spawning the following spring. Analyses of the benthic community structure indicate that the infaunal invertebrate community has shifted from one dominated by several opportunistic species when silver and copper exposures were highest to one in which the species abundance is more evenly distributed, a pattern that indicates a more stable community that is subjected to fewer stressors. Importantly, this long-term change is unrelated to other metals and other measured environmental factors, including salinity and sediment composition. In addition, two of the opportunistic species ( Ampelisca abdita and Streblospio benedicti ) that brood their young and live on the surface of the sediment in tubes have shown a continual decrease in dominance coincident with the decrease in metals. Both species had short-lived rebounds in abundance in 2008, 2009, and 2010 and showed signs of increasing abundance in 2020. Heteromastus filiformis (a subsurface polychaete worm that lives in the sediment, consumes sediment and organic particles residing in the sediment, and reproduces by laying its eggs on or in the sediment) showed a concurrent increase in dominance and, in the last several years before 2008, showed a stable population. H. filiformis abundance increased slightly from 2011 to 2012 and returned to pre-2011 numbers in 2020. The reproductive mode of most species that were present in 2020 was indicative of species that were capable of movement either as pelagic larvae or as mobile adults. Although oviparous species were lower in number in this group, the authors hypothesize that these species will return slowly as more species move back into the area. The use of functional ecology was highlighted in the 2020 benthic community data, which showed that the animals that have now returned to the mudflat are those that can respond successfully to a physical, nontoxic disturbance. Today, community data show a mix of species that consume the sediment, or filter feed, those that have pelagic larvae that must survive landing on the sediment, and those that brood their young. The long-term recovery observed after the 1970s can be ascribed to the decrease in sediment pollutants.

California↗

USGS2020

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) exposed to different preparatory photoperiods during smoltification show varying responses in gill Na+/K+-ATPase, salinity-specific mRNA transcription and ionocyte differentiation

Control of the parr-smolt transformation (or smoltification) is crucial for the husbandry and successful seawater (SW) transfer of Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) reared in freshwater (FW) hatcheries. Photoperiod is an important environmental signal that initiates the complex physiological, morphological and behavioural changes that coincide with marine migration. While the use of long-day photoperiods to initiate smoltification has been well studied, this study investigated how three preparatory photoperiods in FW (LD 08:16, LD 12:12, LD 16:08) preceding exposure to 24-h light (LD 24:0) may influence or enhance smolt performance and growth post-SW transfer. After the photoperiod treatment phase (8 weeks), all groups were exposed to LD 24:0 for 8 weeks (FW) and then transferred to SW for a further 8 weeks. Exposure to LD 16:08 induced rapid development of smolt-related characteristics such as increased gill NKA activity, gill NKAα1b mRNA, and plasma cortisol, and decreased gill NKAα1a mRNA levels and condition factor through the 8-week treatment phase. Subsequent exposure to a LD 24:0 photoperiod resulted in a partial reversal of several of these characteristics, suggesting these fish went through a partial desmoltification. Exposure to LD 12:12 for 8 weeks prior to LD 24:0 elicited an intermediary response in smoltification attributes compared to LD 16:08 and LD 08:16. The LD 12:12 group adapted to SW and showed no negative effects on growth or physiological responses after transfer to SW. Exposure to a shortened photoperiod (LD 08:16) did not elicit any smoltification-related changes prior to LD 24:0, however, exposure to LD 24:0 increased gill NKA activity, plasma cortisol, changes in NKAα1a and NKAα1b mRNA, and the ratio of NKAα1b: NKAα1a. These results were confirmed by the expected changes in NKAα1a and NKAα 1b-positive immuno-reactive gill ionocytes. In summary, after exposure to LD 24:0 fish in the LD 08:16 group showed similar levels of change to those of the LD 16:08 group during the initial FW phase (prior to exposure to LD 24:0). After SW transfer, all groups were able to upregulate SW-specific NKAα1b mRNA and acclimate to SW, even though no increase in cortisol was evident. By the end of the study, there was no difference in SW growth among the groups. Overall, our data indicate that LD 16:08 advanced hypoosmoregulatory characteristics prior to LD 24:0 exposure. In addition, the physiological and molecular indicators measured in this group suggest that fish could have been transferred to SW immediately after 8 weeks in LD 16:08, with no added benefit of successive exposure to LD 24:0, which is typically used by industry to induce smoltification.

Aquaculture↗

USGS2026

Reassessing water availability in the Nile River Basin using satellite-based irrigation water use accounting

Existing estimates of irrigation areas and water use in the Nile River Basin vary widely and are based on inconsistent data and methodologies. This study leverages advances in remote sensing to provide an up-to-date and consistent basin-wide reassessment of water use in the Nile River Basin. Land cover and actual evapotranspiration data from 2013 to 2022 were used to quantify irrigated areas, irrigation water use, and the average naturalized water yield. Across the basin, 7.1 million hectares of irrigated land consume an average of 72.5 ± 2.6 billion cubic meters (BCM) of blue water annually. Egypt and Sudan together account for 92% of the irrigated area and 97% of the irrigation water use. The basin’s average naturalized yield, evaluated at Dongola station, is determined to be between 108 and 114.4 ± 3.2 BCM. Although conservative, this updated analysis indicates the basin’s average naturalized yield is 14%–20% higher than the previous naturalized yield estimate (95 BCM) and 29%–36% higher than the commonly cited observed flow of 84 BCM, which is frequently treated as the total basin-wide available water. Importantly, the study underscores that the 84 BCM represents flow at the Aswan gauging station after upstream consumptive uses, not the total water available in the basin under naturalized conditions. This distinction is critical for accurate water accounting, planning, and governance in this water-scarce basin. This study demonstrates the value of open-source remote sensing resources in data-scarce regions while emphasizing the need for region specific validation and bias correction for improved accuracy.

Nile River Basin↗

USGS2023

Diverse portfolios: Investing in tributaries for restoration of large river fishes in the Anthropocene

Rehabilitation of large Anthropocene rivers requires engagement of diverse stakeholders across a broad range of sociopolitical boundaries. Competing objectives often constrain options for ecological restoration of large rivers whereas fewer competing objectives may exist in a subset of tributaries. Further, tributaries contribute toward building a “portfolio” of river ecosystem assets through physical and biological processes that may present opportunities to enhance the resilience of large river fishes. Our goal is to review roles of tributaries in enhancing mainstem large river fish populations. We present case histories from two greatly altered and distinct large-river tributary systems that highlight how tributaries contribute four portfolio assets to support large-river fish populations: 1) habitat diversity, 2) connectivity, 3) ecological asynchrony, and 4) density-dependent processes. Finally, we identify future research directions to advance our understanding of tributary roles and inform conservation actions. In the Missouri River United States, we focus on conservation efforts for the state endangered lake sturgeon, which inhabits large rivers and tributaries in the Midwest and Eastern United States. In the Colorado River, Grand Canyon United States, we focus on conservation efforts for recovery of the federally threatened humpback chub. In the Missouri River, habitat diversity focused on physical habitats such as substrate for reproduction, and deep-water habitats for refuge, whereas augmenting habitat diversity for Colorado River fishes focused on managing populations in tributaries with minimally impaired thermal and flow regimes. Connectivity enhancements in the Missouri River focused on increasing habitat accessibility that may require removal of physical structures like low-head dams; whereas in the Colorado River, the lack of connectivity may benefit native fishes as the disconnection provides refuge from non-native fish predation. Hydrologic variability among tributaries was present in both systems, likely underscoring ecological asynchrony. These case studies also described density dependent processes that could influence success of restoration actions. Although actions to restore populations varied by river system, these examples show that these four portfolio assets can help guide restoration activities across a diverse range of mainstem rivers and their tributaries. Using these assets as a guide, we suggest these can be transferable to other large river-tributary systems.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

USGS2022

Next-generation technologies unlock new possibilities to track rangeland productivity and quantify multi-scale conservation outcomes

Historically, relying on plot-level inventories impeded our ability to quantify large-scale change in plant biomass, a key indicator of conservation practice outcomes in rangeland systems. Recent technological advances enable assessment at scales appropriate to inform management by providing spatially comprehensive estimates of productivity that are partitioned by plant functional group across all contiguous US rangelands. We partnered with the Sage Grouse and Lesser Prairie-Chicken Initiatives and the Nebraska Natural Legacy Project to demonstrate the ability of these new datasets to quantify multi-scale changes and heterogeneity in plant biomass following mechanical tree removal, prescribed fire, and prescribed grazing. In Oregon's sagebrush steppe, for example, juniper tree removal resulted in a 21% increase in one pasture's productivity and an 18% decline in another. In Nebraska's Loess Canyons, perennial grass productivity initially declined 80% at sites invaded by trees that were prescriptively burned, but then fully recovered post-fire, representing a 492% increase from nadir. In Kansas' Shortgrass Prairie, plant biomass increased 4-fold (966,809 kg/ha) in pastures that were prescriptively grazed, with gains highly dependent upon precipitation as evidenced by sensitivity of remotely sensed estimates (SD ± 951,308 kg/ha). Our results emphasize that next-generation remote sensing datasets empower land managers to move beyond simplistic control versus treatment study designs to explore nuances in plant biomass in unprecedented ways. The products of new remote sensing technologies also accelerate adaptive management and help communicate wildlife and livestock forage benefits from management to diverse stakeholders.

Kansas, Nebraska, Oregon↗

USGS2024

Parsimonious high-resolution landslide susceptibility modeling at continental scales

Landslide susceptibility maps are fundamental tools for risk reduction, but the coarse resolution of current continental-scale models is insufficient for local application. Complex relations between topographic and environmental attributes characterizing landslide susceptibility at local scales are not transferrable across areas without landslide data. Existing maps with multiple susceptibility classifications under-represent landslide potential in moderate and gently sloping terrain. We leverage an extensive landslide database ( N = 613,724), a high-resolution digital elevation model (10-m), and high-performance computing resources, to develop a new nationwide susceptibility map for the contiguous United States, Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. We calculate four alternative linear and nonlinear thresholds of topographic slope and relief using an objective split-sample calibration. We down-sample our results to a 90-m grid to account for uncertainty in the digital elevation model and landslide position, and evaluate these thresholds' ability to differentiate areas of greater susceptibility. The less conservative nonlinear model optimally balances our priorities of capturing observed landslides (99%) while minimizing area covered by susceptible terrain (43%). Independent evaluation with four statewide landslide inventories ( N = 172,367) reinforces our model selection but highlights spatially variable performance. Therefore, we propose a novel approach to susceptibility classification using the concentration of landslide-prone terrain within each down-sampled grid. While landslides are possible within any cells containing susceptible terrain, those with the highest concentration capture the majority of observed landslides. Our new map characterizes landside susceptibility more consistently than prior models; our transparent classification approach also provides flexibility for accommodating different tolerances in risk reduction measures.

AGU Advances↗

USGS2024

Shifting sands: The influence of coral reefs on shoreline erosion from short-term storm protection to long-term disequilibrium

Climate change is exacerbating shoreline erosion and flooding, posing significant risks to coastal communities. Although traditional coastal defenses such as seawalls, dykes, and breakwaters offer protection from these hazards, their high environmental and economic costs are driving interest in cost-competitive nature-based solutions. Coral reef restoration is a nature-based solution that may be particularly apt to mitigate tropical coastal flooding and shoreline erosion while providing benefits to local tourism, fisheries, and nature. However, the novelty of this field requires studies demonstrating the benefits of reefs for coastal protection. While the flood protection benefits of reefs have been well-documented, their effects on shoreline erosion are comparatively less understood. Here, we investigate the effects of coral reefs on shoreline erosion by comparing tropical beach responses at short and long timescales, as well as identifying important reef structural features influencing coastal erosion rates. Our analyses leveraged two key datasets created in this study: the first derived from a literature review on short-term shoreline erosion due to storm events, and another compiling >80 years of long-term erosion rates, bathymetry, habitat, and wave energy for the Hawaiian Islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, and Maui. Our analyses reveal three key findings regarding the effects of reefs on shoreline erosion. Firstly, we find evidence for the role of reefs in mitigating shoreline erosion during storm events, with coral reef-protected beaches experiencing 97 % less beach volume loss than unprotected beaches. Secondly, a linear regression analysis demonstrates that coral reef structure and wave energy are important predictors of long-term shoreline erosion rates, explaining 34 % of the variation across the Hawaiian Islands. Consistent with prior research, we find beaches protected by coral reefs with shallow reef crests, wide reef flats, calmer offshore conditions, and positioned farther from the shore exhibit lower erosion rates than others. Finally, when comparing historical erosion rates of protected and unprotected beaches in Hawai'i, we find a seemingly incongruous pattern where coral reef-protected beaches eroded up to 2x faster than beaches without reefs. While the cause of the enhanced erosion is yet to be fully understood, a combination of coral reef structural degradation and sea-level rise is likely shifting the equilibrium profiles of reef-protected beaches inshore. These results emphasize the role of coral reefs in reducing coastal erosion during storm events while revealing contrasting erosion patterns over long timescales. Future studies would ideally broaden the scope to include various regions, utilize advanced sediment transport models, and undertake field experiments to deepen our understanding of coral reef-coupled shoreline dynamics.

Nature-Based Solutions↗

USGS2019

Assessment of the potential for in-plume sulphur dioxide gas-ash interactions to influence the respiratory toxicity of volcanic ash

Background Volcanic plumes are complex environments composed of gases and ash particles, where chemical and physical processes occur at different temperature and compositional regimes. Commonly, soluble sulphate- and chloride-bearing salts are formed on ash as gases interact with ash surfaces. Exposure to respirable volcanic ash following an eruption is potentially a significant health concern. The impact of such gas-ash interactions on ash toxicity is wholly un-investigated. Here, we study, for the first time, whether the interaction of volcanic particles with sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) gas, and the resulting presence of sulphate salt deposits on particle surfaces, influences toxicity to the respiratory system, using an advanced in vitro approach. Methods To emplace surface sulphate salts on particles, via replication of the physicochemical reactions that occur between pristine ash surfaces and volcanic gas, analogue substrates (powdered synthetic volcanic glass and natural pumice) were exposed to SO 2 at 500 °C, in a novel Advanced Gas-Ash Reactor, resulting in salt-laden particles. The solubility of surface salt deposits was then assessed by leaching in water and geochemical modelling. A human multicellular lung model was exposed to aerosolised salt-laden and pristine (salt-free) particles, and incubated for 24 h. Cell cultures were subsequently assessed for biological endpoints, including cytotoxicity (lactate dehydrogenase release), oxidative stress (oxidative stress-related gene expression; heme oxygenase 1 and NAD(P)H dehydrogenase [quinone] 1) and its (pro-)inflammatory response (tumour necrosis factor α, interleukin 8 and interleukin 1β at gene and protein levels). Results In the lung cell model no significant effects were observed between the pristine and SO 2 -exposed particles, indicating that the surface salt deposits, and the underlying alterations to the substrate, do not cause acute adverse effects in vitro . Based on the leachate data, the majority of the sulphate salts from the ash surfaces are likely to dissolve in the lungs prior to cellular uptake. Conclusions The findings of this study indicate that interaction of volcanic ash with SO 2 during ash generation and transport does not significantly affect the respiratory toxicity of volcanic ash in vitro . Therefore, sulphate salts are unlikely a dominant factor controlling variability in in vitro toxicity assessments observed during previous eruption response efforts.

Environmental Research↗