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Integration of social and ecological sciences for natural resource decision making: Challenges and opportunities

The last 25 years have witnessed growing recognition that natural resource management decisions depend as much on understanding humans and their social interactions as on understanding the interactions between non-human organisms and their environment. Decision science provides a framework for integrating ecological and social factors into a decision, but challenges to integration remain. The decision-analytic framework elicits values and preferences to help articulate objectives, and then evaluates the outcomes of alternative management actions to achieve these objectives. Integrating social science into these steps can be hindered by failing to include social scientists as more than stakeholder-process facilitators, assuming that specific decision-analytic skills are commonplace for social scientists, misperceptions of social data as inherently qualitative, timescale mismatches for iterating through decision analysis and collecting relevant social data, difficulties in predicting human behavior, and failures of institutions to recognize the importance of this integration. We engage these challenges, and suggest solutions to them, helping move forward the integration of social and biological/ecological knowledge and considerations in decision-making.

Environmental Management↗

Social vulnerability and geographic access barriers to earthquake early warning education in museums and other free choice learning environments

Given the earthquake risk on the West Coast of the United States, individuals and communities require a basic understanding of ShakeAlert earthquake early warning technology, which may provide crucial seconds of warning. Free choice learning environments (FCLEs), such as museums, public libraries, and national parks, are uniquely positioned to expand the reach of earthquake early warning through educational initiatives and resources. Earthquake education in these spaces creates awareness of earthquake hazards and risk in areas where people live or visit and may also increase engagement in preparedness behavior as they are trusted sources of information in their communities. However, population demographics within the ShakeAlert states has yet to be examined; audience segmentation theories require a better understanding of the demographics of the people the system seeks to serve. Here we build upon previous typology research that examined over 150 earthquake displays around the United States and found that most did not include information about earthquake preparedness or associated protective actions. This new research shifts to a hierarchical clustering analysis that identifies seven main population groups within the ShakeAlert states. We also find that the cost of admission and the geographic distance away from FCLEs, including the potential cost and time of transportation, may lead to an urban-rural divide in visitor access. Using audience segmentation theories as related to earthquakes, we can understand critical barriers to FCLEs and opportunities for ShakeAlert education. As earthquake early warning systems expand internationally, thoughtful and equitable education initiatives are beneficial to reach critical audiences.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

Monitoring long-term effects of offshore oil and gas development along the Southern California outer continental shelf and slope: Background environmental conditions in the Santa Maria Basin

Potential environmental impacts of materials discharged from oil and gas development and production platforms off the coast of southern California (Santa Maria Basin) are being monitored during an ongoing, long-term (fiveyear) field program. The study combines hypothesis testing of platform effects with basic research on the structure and dynamics of the regional ecosystem over a time series encompassing both seasonal and repeated annual scales. Oceanographic features and processes that are being measured focus on the benthos and include biological community indices and species abundances for hard-bottom and soft-bottom (macroinfauna and meiofauna) assemblages; levels and distributions of trace metals and hydrocarbons in bottom sediments, suspended particulates, animal tissues, and pore waters; water currents and otherphysical-oceanographicfeatures; various sedimentological properties (sediment grain size, total organic carbon, shear strength, distribution of mineral types, radioisotope profiles, and degrees of sediment mixing as a result of bioturbation); sediment and pollutant-transport processes; and animal-sediment-pollutant interactions. Synoptic measurement of these different environmental variables over the extended sampling period provides an opportunity to examine long-term variability in the benthic environment with respect to both natural and anthropogenic causes. Efforts to distinguish between natural variability and low-level cumulative impacts of drilling are given special attention. Results obtained during the first two years of sampling provide a basis for beginning to understand environmental processes and relations important in detecting and interpreting any subsequent impacts caused by drilling activities in this complex and productive region of the California outer continental shelf and slope. Background chemical, physical, and biological data generated during this period demonstrate that impacts of discharges from oil and gas operations should be detectable, if they occur, and should be distinguishable from natural environmental variability. Small inputs of barium and petroleum hydrocarbons have been detected and appear to be associated with the minor drilling activities that have occurred in the area thus far, however, these initial inputs have not led to any noticeable biological impacts. These initial results are hopefully of value for two reasons: (1) in providing a summary of basic chemical, physical, and biological features of the benthic environment within the Santa Maria Basin; and (2) in presenting information on research strategies that should be considered in designing studies dealing with similar resource-management problems in other parts of the world.

California↗

Shorebird subsistence harvest and indigenous knowledge in Alaska: Informing harvest assessment and management, and engaging users in shorebird conservation

Limited data on harvest and population parameters are major impediments to assess shorebird harvest sustainability. Because of sharp declines in shorebird populations, timely conservation efforts require approaches that account for uncertainty in harvest sustainability. We combined harvest assessment and ethnographic research to better understand shorebird conservation concerns related to subsistence harvest in Alaska and to support culturally sensible conservation actions. Our objectives were to (1) estimate the Alaska-wide shorebird subsistence harvest and (2) document shorebird indigenous knowledge on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Harvest estimates were based on surveys conducted in 1990–2015 (n = 775 community-years). Key respondent interviews conducted in 2017 (n = 72) documented shorebird ethnotaxonomy and ethnography. The Alaska-wide shorebird harvest was 2,783 birds per year. Harvest of godwits was relatively low (1,115 birds per year) and likely included mostly Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica baueri, but this population has a low harvest potential. The egg harvest was 4,676 eggs per year, mostly small shorebird eggs. We documented 24 Yup’ik shorebird names and 10 main ethnotaxonomic categories. Children learning harvesting skills focused on small birds and adults also occasionally harvested shorebirds, but shorebirds were not primary food or cultural resources. Older generations associated shorebirds with a time when people were in closer contact with nature and their cultural roots. Shorebirds connected people with the environment as well as with Yup’ik traditions and language. Our results can inform improvements to harvest assessment and management, as well as outreach and communication efforts to engage subsistence users in shorebird conservation.

Alaska↗

Constraining the inferred paleohydrologic evolution of a deep unsaturated zone in the Amargosa Desert

Natural flow regimes in deep unsaturated zones of arid interfluvial environments are rarely in hydraulic equilibrium with near-surface boundary conditions imposed by present-day plant–soil–atmosphere dynamics. Nevertheless, assessments of water resources and contaminant transport require realistic estimates of gas, water, and solute fluxes under past, present, and projected conditions. Multimillennial transients that are captured in current hydraulic, chemical, and isotopic profiles can be interpreted to constrain alternative scenarios of paleohydrologic evolution following climatic and vegetational shifts from pluvial to arid conditions. However, interpreting profile data with numerical models presents formidable challenges in that boundary conditions must be prescribed throughout the entire Holocene, when we have at most a few decades of actual records. Models of profile development at the Amargosa Desert Research Site include substantial uncertainties from imperfectly known initial and boundary conditions when simulating flow and solute transport over millennial timescales. We show how multiple types of profile data, including matric potentials and porewater concentrations of Cl − , δD, δ 18 O, can be used in multiphase heat, flow, and transport models to expose and reduce uncertainty in paleohydrologic reconstructions. Results indicate that a dramatic shift in the near-surface water balance occurred approximately 16000 yr ago, but that transitions in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation were not necessarily synchronous. The timing of the hydraulic transition imparts the largest uncertainty to model-predicted contemporary fluxes. In contrast, the uncertainties associated with initial (late Pleistocene) conditions and boundary conditions during the Holocene impart only small uncertainties to model-predicted contemporaneous fluxes.

California, Nevada↗

Internet Map Service for Environmental Health in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region

The objective of this project is to provide an earth and biological resources database within a geographic framework using an Internet Map Service (IMS) to further our understanding of the linkages between the condition of the physical environment and public health issues. The IMS is now available on the Internet at borderhealth.cr.usgs.gov

Fact Sheet↗

Sediment yields of Wisconsin streams

Sediment in Wisconsin streams causes economic and engineering problems in water management and reduces the value of water for nearly all uses. Sediment produces problems such as reduced reservoir capacity, navigation hazards, increased cost of water treatment, property damage, temporary loss of farmland, destruction of feeding and nesting grounds of fish, and destruction of wildlife habitat. Sediment in water also reduces the aesthetic value of surface waters and is detrimental to the State's tourist and recreation industry. The yield of sediment from a drainage basin is subject to many environmental influences. Most sediment results from the weathering and erosion of soil and rock materials. Other factors such as rainfall intensity, runoff rate, topography, rock type, soil characteristics, vegetal cover, and land use also influence the rate of sediment production and movement. An understanding of the many parameters that influence sediment yield is a basic need for managing the State's water resources. The purpose of this report is to describe the magnitude and variability of sediment in Wisconsin streams, to relate sediment yields to the local environment, and to identify areas that need further study. The report is based on sediment data from 44 stream-gaging sites throughout the State. Determination of local areas of erosion and deposition are beyond the scope of the report.

Wisconsin↗

Differences between main-channel and off-channel food webs in the upper Mississippi River revealed by fatty acid profiles of consumers

Large river systems are often thought to contain a mosaic of patches with different habitat characteristics driven by differences in flow and mixing environments. Off-channel habitats (e.g., backwater areas, secondary channels) can become semi-isolated from main-channel water inputs, leading to the development of distinct biogeochemical environments. Observations of adult bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ) in the main channel of the Mississippi River led to speculation that the main channel offered superior food resources relative to off-channel areas. One important aspect of food quality is the quantity and composition of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA). We sampled consumers from main-channel and backwater habitats to determine whether they differed in PUFA content. Main-channel individuals for relatively immobile species (young-of-year bluegill, zebra mussels [ Dreissena polymorpha ], and plain pocketbook mussels [ Lampsilis cardium ]) had significantly greater PUFA content than off-channel individuals. No difference in PUFA was observed for the more mobile gizzard shad ( Dorsoma cepedianum ), which may move between main-channel and off-channel habitats even at early life-history stages. As off-channel habitats become isolated from main-channel waters, flow and water column nitrogen decrease, potentially improving conditions for nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria and vascular plants that, in turn, have low PUFA content. We conclude that main-channel food webs of the upper Mississippi River provide higher quality food resources for some riverine consumers as compared to food webs in off-channel habitats.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

Integration and tradeoffs

Managing for sagebrush ecosystems that are resilient to disturbance and resistant to invasive plants often requires managers to make tough decisions in the face of considerable complexity and uncertainty. The deci¬sion making environment is often characterized by multiple management objectives, limited manage¬ment authorities and capabilities, dynamic ecosystems and plant communities, and uncertain responses to management actions. Resource decision makers must be able to determine appropriate objectives based on desired management outcomes and sort through the different management considerations involved in obtaining those desired outcomes. Decision makers must also be able to evaluate the tradeoffs associated with diverse and often competing management considerations and determine the long-term positive or negative effects of particular management actions on the resource.

Report↗

Effect of climate change on disease spread in wildlife

A growing body of evidence indicates that climate change alone, or acting synergistically with current anthropogenic threats, is affecting the health of wild populations of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. Measurable by-products of climate change include elevated atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, higher average global temperatures; variations in global precipitation patterns, rising and warming oceans, altered hydrographs of rivers, and increased mid-continental drying during summer. These consequences affect the terrestrial environment through shifts in phenology, vegetation cover, and fire regimes. Warmer ocean temperatures, increased acidification, rise in sea levels, and reduction in sea ice cover are also leading to widespread ecological changes in marine systems. Wildlife populations face a variety of climate-related pressures, such as changes in animal distribution or density, limitation of food resources, and alteration to critical habitats. The increased potential for emergence and resurgence of diseases that are responsive to environmental conditions also has implications for wildlife populations. Shifts in temperature or other climatic factors may directly affect the incidence of disease in wildlife by altering host-pathogen interactions, promoting vector populations or allowing new ranges for vectors, or reducing development times for parasites. A number of examples from both field and laboratory studies have demonstrated a clear link between warming environments and disease spread. Many climate-related environmental changes also influence wildlife health indirectly. For example, increasing temperatures, in combination with shifts in rainfall and humidity, may aggravate current trends for water resource limitation and habitat degradation or destruction and lead to increased crowding of animal populations, thereby promoting transmission opportunities of pathogens within populations or across species. Although it may be difficult to disentangle the influences of other anthropogenic changes from the direct effects of warming, some ecosystems provide especially useful models for studying climate-related disease spread in wildlife. For example, the effects of climate change on parasite dynamics may be easily observed in the Arctic, where environmental changes are occurring rapidly, anthropogenic influences are relatively limited, and biodiversity is generally low. Marine ecosystems are also undergoing rapid rates of change and may be vulnerable to a variety of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Although many factors affect the health of organisms in ocean environments, temperature has been clearly linked to an increase in disease prevalence among sessile organisms such as corals. In this chapter, we discuss observed and predicted changes to wildlife health resulting from climate change. Our review will not include all aspects of wildlife health, but will instead focus on established or suspected links between climate drivers and disease spread and discuss examples from the current literature. Here, we define disease spread to include: 1) change in geographical or altitudinal distribution of pathogens, parasites, and vectors and the diseases they cause; 2) change in prevalence or severity of disease; and 3) emergence of novel diseases. Additionally, because wildlife species serve as reservoirs for zoonotic diseases that affect both animals and humans, we include select examples of the effect of climate change on the capacity of wildlife to harbor and spread these disease agents.

Book chapter↗

Recent and projected precipitation and temperature changes in the Grand Canyon area with implications for groundwater resources

Groundwater is a critical resource in the Grand Canyon region, supplying nearly all water needs for residents and millions of visitors. Additionally, groundwater discharging at hundreds of spring locations in and near Grand Canyon supports important ecosystems in this mostly arid environment. The security of groundwater supplies is of critical importance for both people and ecosystems in the region and the potential for changes to groundwater systems from projected climate change is a cause for concern. In this study, we analyze recent historical and projected precipitation and temperature data for the Grand Canyon region. Projected climate scenarios are then used in Soil Water Balance groundwater infiltration simulations to understand the state-of-the-science on projected changes to groundwater resources in the area. Historical climate data from 1896 through 2019 indicate multi-decadal cyclical patterns in both precipitation and temperature for most of the time period. Since the 1970s, however, a significant rising trend in temperature is observed in the area. All 10-year periods since 1993 are characterized by both below average precipitation and above average temperature. Downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation and temperature output from 97 CMIP5 global climate models for the water-year 2020–2099 time period indicate projected precipitation patterns similar to recent historical (water-year 1951–2015) data. Projected temperature for the Grand Canyon area, however, is expected to rise by as much as 3.4 °C by the end of the century, relative to the recent historical average. Integrating the effects of projected precipitation and temperature changes on groundwater infiltration, simulation results indicate that > 76% of future decades will experience average potential groundwater infiltration less than that of the recent historical period.

Arizona, Utah↗

Gas hydrates in the ocean environment

A GAS HYDRATE, also known as a gas clathrate, is a gas-bearing, icelike material. It occurs in abundance in marine sediments and stores immense amounts of methane, with major implications for future energy resources and global climate change. Furthermore, gas hydrate controls some of the physical properties of sedimentary deposits and thereby influences seafloor stability.

Book chapter↗

From theory to experiments for testing the proximate mechanisms of mast seeding: An agenda for an experimental ecology

Highly variable and synchronised production of seeds by plant populations is called masting and is implicated in many important ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. The lack of experimental studies prevents underlying mechanisms from being explicitly tested, and thereby precludes meaningful predictions on the consequences of changing environments for plant reproductive patterns and global vegetation dynamics. Here we review the most relevant hypothetical drivers of masting and outline a research agenda that takes the biology of masting from a largely observational field of ecology to one rooted in mechanistic understanding. We divide the experimental framework into three main processes: resource dynamics, pollen limitation, and genetic and hormonal regulation, and illustrate how specific predictions about proximate mechanisms can be tested, highlighting the few successful experiments as examples. We envision that the experiments we outline will deliver new insights into how and why masting patterns might respond to a changing environment.

Ecology Letters↗

When oil and water mix: Understanding the environmental impacts of shale development

Development of shale gas and tight oil, or unconventional oil and gas (UOG), has dramatically increased domestic energy production in the U.S. UOG resources are typically developed through the use of hydraulic fracturing, which creates high-permeability flow paths into large volumes of tight rocks to provide a means for hydrocarbons to move to a wellbore. This process uses significant volumes of water, sand, and chemicals, raising concerns about risks to the environment and to human health. Researchers in various disciplines have been working to make UOG development more efficient, and to better understand the risks to air quality, water quality, landscapes, human health, and ecosystems. Risks to air include releases of methane, carbon dioxide, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter. Water-resource risks include excessive withdrawals, stray gas in drinking-water aquifers, and surface spills of fluids or chemicals. Landscapes can be significantly altered by the infrastructure installed to support large drilling platforms and associated equipment. Exposure routes, fate and transport, and toxicology of chemicals used in the hydraulic fracturing process are poorly understood, as are the potential effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and human health. This is made all the more difficult by an adaptable and evolving industry that frequently changes methods and constantly introduces new chemicals. Geoscientists responding to questions about the risks of UOG should refer to recent, rigorous scientific research.

GSA Today↗

A national reconnaissance for pharmaceuticals and other organic wastewater contaminants in the United States - II) Untreated drinking water sources

Numerous studies have shown that a variety of manufactured and natural organic compounds such as pharmaceuticals, steroids, surfactants, flame retardants, fragrances, plasticizers and other chemicals often associated with wastewaters have been detected in the vicinity of municipal wastewater discharges and livestock agricultural facilities. To provide new data and insights about the environmental presence of some of these chemicals in untreated sources of drinking water in the United States targeted sites were sampled and analyzed for 100 analytes with sub-parts per billion detection capabilities. The sites included 25 ground- and 49 surface-water sources of drinking water serving populations ranging from one family to over 8 million people. Sixty-three of the 100 targeted chemicals were detected in at least one water sample. Interestingly, in spite of the low detection levels 60% of the 36 pharmaceuticals (including prescription drugs and antibiotics) analyzed were not detected in any water sample. The five most frequently detected chemicals targeted in surface water were: cholesterol (59%, natural sterol), metolachlor (53%, herbicide), cotinine (51%, nicotine metabolite), β-sitosterol (37%, natural plant sterol), and 1,7-dimethylxanthine (27%, caffeine metabolite); and in ground water: tetrachloroethylene (24%, solvent), carbamazepine (20%, pharmaceutical), bisphenol-A (20%, plasticizer), 1,7-dimethylxanthine (16%, caffeine metabolite), and tri (2-chloroethyl) phosphate (12%, fire retardant). A median of 4 compounds were detected per site indicating that the targeted chemicals generally occur in mixtures (commonly near detection levels) in the environment and likely originate from a variety of animal and human uses and waste sources. These data will help prioritize and determine the need, if any, for future occurrence, fate and transport, and health-effects research for subsets of these chemicals and their degradates most likely to be found in water resources used for drinking water in the United States.

Science of the Total Environment↗

U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address highly pathogenic avian influenza and its effects on wildlife health 2025–29

Executive Summary Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an ecologically and economically important animal disease that can also directly affect humans (a “zoonotic” disease). HPAI was once limited almost exclusively to domestic poultry but has rapidly adapted to diverse animal hosts. Viruses causing HPAI now appear to be maintained and dispersed by wild birds largely independent of poultry, though HPAI continues to cause considerable economic losses and supply chain disruptions in the domestic poultry trade. Coincident with the adaptation of HPAI viruses to wild birds, particularly waterfowl and gulls, increasingly diverse wild bird hosts are becoming exposed to HPAI, often resulting in disease and death. More sporadically, HPAI has caused mass mortality events, particularly among seabirds. Furthermore, viral spillover to wild and domestic mammals has become more common. Spillover to wild mammals has resulted in mortality among diverse terrestrial and marine taxa, including episodic losses of such scale as to represent potential conservation challenges. Since approximately March 2024, HPAI has also affected dairy cows, which represents a new threat to the agricultural economy. Lastly, HPAI has increasingly affected humans through domestic animal exposures, exemplifying the considerable implications of this disease beyond animal health. Rapid changes in the ecology of HPAI are currently outpacing research efforts. For example, it is not entirely clear which newly established hosts may become reservoirs for HPAI viruses (in other words, capable of maintaining HPAI viruses within a broad population indefinitely) and how this may influence viral evolution and dissemination. As a result, there are considerable information gaps regarding HPAI in wildlife that, if filled, would improve the ability of scientists, managers, agricultural industry representatives, and healthcare professionals to understand and to anticipate the effects of HPAI on wild animal, domestic animal, environmental, and human health (“One Health”). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the lead Federal agency providing scientific research on avian influenza viruses (AIVs), including HPAI viruses, that affect wildlife for which the Department of the Interior (DOI) has management authority. States have jurisdiction over wildlife on Federal lands within their borders (43 CFR § 24.3), so the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area (EMA) coordinates with State natural resource management agencies. The EMA focuses its research on HPAI through priorities identified by the USGS Avian Influenza Science Team ( app. 1 ). Priorities identified by the USGS Avian Influenza Science Team are based on Administration priorities, Congressional direction, and discussions with State, Federal, and Tribal natural resource management agencies that identify specific scientific gaps that need to be filled to inform sound wildlife management decisions. Notable non-DOI Federal partners include the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the lead for the HPAI regulatory response in poultry and livestock, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the lead agency for the HPAI response pertaining to human health. The USGS offers unique expertise and capacity pertaining to research on diseases affecting free-ranging wildlife populations. This expertise has been critical to interjurisdictional surveillance and capacity-building efforts, including programs administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the CDC. The USGS also provides resources, guidance, and tools to inform surveillance and interventions conducted by natural resource management agencies. More specifically, the USGS EMA provides objective and rigorous scientific data for inferring (1) the utility of new methods to detect and characterize AIVs, including those maintained in wildlife and the environment; (2) effects of HPAI on wildlife; (3) spatiotemporal patterns of wildlife host and AIV dispersal; (4) the presence and persistence of AIVs in the environment; (5) how HPAI in wildlife influences consumptive and nonconsumptive utilization of wildlife; (6) how new tools and scientific methods may promote sound management decisions for HPAI-affected wildlife, particularly species of conservation concern; and (7) the combined effects of HPAI and other stressors on ecosystem health and resiliency. This science strategy builds upon research outlined in a previous USGS science strategy for HPAI (2016–20) by Harris and others (2016) . This strategy also details research priorities identified by the Administration (for example, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2025 ) and others based on USGS Avian Influenza Science Team discussions with natural resource management agencies to address HPAI and wildlife health over the next 5 years (2025–29). This strategy presents 7 goals and 26 objectives that focus USGS and partner efforts on priorities that will fill data gaps regarding the effects of HPAI on wildlife managed by or co-managed with the U.S. Department of the Interior such that agencies and partners might anticipate or limit adverse effects on public resources. This strategy also identifies research priorities intended to address HPAI in wildlife and wildlife habitat that are anticipated to support interjurisdictional One Health efforts.

Circular↗

Discovery sequence and the nature of low permeability gas accumulations

There is an ongoing discussion regarding the geologic nature of accumulations that host gas in low-permeability sandstone environments. This note examines the discovery sequence of the accumulations in low permeability sandstone plays that were classified as continuous-type by the U.S. Geological Survey for the 1995 National Oil and Gas Assessment. It compares the statistical character of historical discovery sequences of accumulations associated with continuous-type sandstone gas plays to those of conventional plays. The seven sandstone plays with sufficient data exhibit declining size with sequence order, on average, and in three of the seven the trend is statistically significant. Simulation experiments show that both a skewed endowment size distribution and a discovery process that mimics sampling proportional to size are necessary to generate a discovery sequence that consistently produces a statistically significant negative size order relationship. The empirical findings suggest that discovery sequence could be used to constrain assessed gas in untested areas. The plays examined represent 134 of the 265 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas assessed in undeveloped areas of continuous-type gas plays in low permeability sandstone environments reported in the 1995 National Assessment. ?? 2005 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Natural Resources Research↗

Increasing aeolian dust deposition to snowpacks in the Rocky Mountains inferred from snowpack, wet deposition, and aerosol chemistry

Mountain snowpacks are a vital natural resource for ∼1.5 billion people in the northern Hemisphere, helping to meet human and ecological demand for water in excess of that provided by summer rain. Springtime warming and aeolian dust deposition accelerate snowmelt, increasing the risk of water shortages during late summer, when demand is greatest. While climate networks provide data that can be used to evaluate the effect of warming on snowpack resources, there are no established regional networks for monitoring aeolian dust deposition to snow. In this study, we test the hypothesis that chemistry of snow, wet deposition, and aerosols can be used as a surrogate for dust deposition to snow. We then analyze spatial patterns and temporal trends in inferred springtime dust deposition to snow across the Rocky Mountains, USA, for 1993–2014. Geochemical evidence, including strong correlations (r 2 ≥ 0.94) between Ca 2+ , alkalinity, and dust concentrations in snow deposited during dust events, indicate that carbonate minerals in dust impart a strong chemical signature that can be used to track dust deposition to snow. Spatial patterns in chemistry of snow, wet deposition, and aerosols indicate that dust deposition increases from north to south in the Rocky Mountains, and temporal trends indicate that winter/spring dust deposition increased by 81% in the southern Rockies during 1993–2014. Using a multivariate modeling approach, we determined that increases in dust deposition and decreases in springtime snowfall combined to accelerate snowmelt timing in the southern Rockies by approximately 7–18 days between 1993 and 2014. Previous studies have shown that aeolian dust emissions may have doubled globally during the 20th century, possibly due to drought and land-use change. Climate projections for increased aridity in the southwestern U.S., northern Africa, and other mid-latitude regions of the northern Hemisphere suggest that aeolian dust emissions may continue to increase, compounding the risk that climate warming poses to snowpack water resources in arid/semi-arid regions of the world.

Atmospheric Environment↗