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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 667 records · Page 37Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Climate-modulated range expansion of reef-building coral communities off southeast Florida during the late Holocene

The Holocene reefs off southeast Florida provide unique insights into the biogeographical and ecological response of western Atlantic coral reefs to past climate change that can be used to evaluate future climate impacts. However, previous studies have focused on millennial-scale change during the stable mid-Holocene, making it difficult to make inferences about the impact of shorter-term variability that is relevant to modern climate warming. Using uranium-series dating of newly discovered subfossil coral rubble deposits, we establish a new high-resolution record of coral community development off southeast Florida during a period of variable climate in the late Holocene. Our results indicate that coral communities dominated by reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. persisted in the nearshore environments off southeast Florida ~75 km north of their primary historical ranges between ~3500 and 1800 years before present. This timing coincides with regional warming at the northern extent of the Atlantic Warm Pool, suggesting a likely link between regional oceanographic climate and the expansion of cold-sensitive reef-building coral communities to the high-latitude reefs off southeast Florida. These findings not only extend the record of coral-reef development in southeast Florida into the late Holocene, but they also have important implications for future range expansions of reef-building coral communities in response to modern climate change.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Delivering climate science for the nation's fish, wildlife, and ecosystems: The U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Changes to the Earth's climate-temperature, precipitation, and other important aspects of climate-pose significant challenges to our Nation's natural resources now and will continue to do so. Managers of land, water, and living resources need to understand the impacts of climate change-which will exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat fragmentation and invasive species-so they can design effective response strategies. In 2008 Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); this center was formed to address challenges resulting from climate change and to empower natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision-making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has invested over $20M in cutting-edge climate change research and is now leading the effort to establish eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs).

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2009

Groundwater availability of the Central Valley Aquifer, California

California's Central Valley covers about 20,000 square miles and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. More than 250 different crops are grown in the Central Valley with an estimated value of $17 billion per year. This irrigated agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage. Approximately one-sixth of the Nation's irrigated land is in the Central Valley, and about one-fifth of the Nation's groundwater demand is supplied from its aquifers. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California's expanding urban population. Since 1980, the population of the Central Valley has nearly doubled from 2 million to 3.8 million people. The Census Bureau projects that the Central Valley's population will increase to 6 million people by 2020. This surge in population has increased the competition for water resources within the Central Valley and statewide, which likely will be exacerbated by anticipated reductions in deliveries of Colorado River water to southern California. In response to this competition for water, a number of water-related issues have gained prominence: conservation of agricultural land, conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, and effects of climate variability. To provide information to stakeholders addressing these issues, the USGS Groundwater Resources Program made a detailed assessment of groundwater availability of the Central Valley aquifer system, that includes: (1) the present status of groundwater resources; (2) how these resources have changed over time; and (3) tools to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate variability and change. This effort builds on previous investigations, such as the USGS Central Valley Regional Aquifer System and Analysis (CV-RASA) project and several other groundwater studies in the Valley completed by Federal, State and local agencies at differing scales. The principal product of this new assessment is a tool referred to as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) that accounts for integrated, variable water supply and demand, and simulates surface-water and groundwater-flow across the entire Central Valley system. The development of the CVHM comprised four major elements: (1) a comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS) to compile, analyze and visualize data; (2) a texture model to characterize the aquifer system;(3) estimates of water-budget components by numerically modeling the hydrologic system with the Farm Process (FMP); and (4) simulations to assess and quantify hydrologic conditions.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2023

Incremental evolution of modeling a prognosis for polar bears in a rapidly changing Arctic

Updating predictions of the response of high-profile, at-risk species to climate change and anthropogenic stressors is vital for informing effective conservation action. Here, we review two prior generations of Bayesian network probability models predicting changes in global polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) population status, and provide a contemporary update based on recent research findings and sea-ice projections by newer climate models. We compare predictions of polar bear population response from all 3 models among four circumpolar Arctic ecoregions, using sea ice projections based on three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SSP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Consistent with the previous two model generations, polar bears will continue to experience increasing probability of declining or greatly declining populations throughout the 21st century, varying by emission scenario. Populations within the Polar Basin Divergent Ice Ecoregion have the highest predicted probability of declines, but predictions were slightly less dire relative to the previous model generation. Most of the influence, denoted by model sensitivity analysis, is from expected degradation and loss of sea ice and reduced access to marine prey. The lack of terrestrial prey adequate to substitute for loss of access to marine prey, as well as human-caused bear morality associated with hunting and defense of life and property encountered when polar bears are increasingly forced ashore also contributed to predicted declines. Although some tidewater glacial fjords and other localized onshore resources may provide local refugia, their benefit is transient. Our findings continue to inform priorities for inventory, monitoring, and research needs, and suggest that similar updates to models of other at-risk species can capitalize on the comparison framework we present here.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2022

Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: Frontline observations and management responses

Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitioning to persistent alternative types, hereafter called “vegetation type conversion” (VTC). VTC is one of the most pressing management issues in the southwestern US, yet current strategies to intervene and address change often use trial-and-error approaches devised after the fact. To better understand how to manage VTC, we gathered managers, scientists, and practitioners from across the southwestern US to collect their experiences with VTC challenges, management responses, and outcomes.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico↗

USGS2016

When winners become losers: Predicted nonlinear responses of arctic birds to increasing woody vegetation

Climate change is facilitating rapid changes in the composition and distribution of vegetation at northern latitudes, raising questions about the responses of wildlife that rely on arctic ecosystems. One widely observed change occurring in arctic tundra ecosystems is an increasing dominance of deciduous shrub vegetation. Our goals were to examine the tolerance of arctic-nesting bird species to existing gradients of vegetation along the boreal forest-tundra ecotone, to predict the abundance of species across different heights and densities of shrubs, and to identify species that will be most or least responsive to ongoing expansion of shrubs in tundra ecosystems. We conducted 1,208 point counts on 12 study blocks from 2012–2014 in northwestern Alaska, using repeated surveys to account for imperfect detection of birds. We considered the importance of shrub height, density of low and tall shrubs (i.e. shrubs >0.5 m tall), percent of ground cover attributed to shrubs (including dwarf shrubs <0.5 m tall), and percent of herbaceous plant cover in predicting bird abundance. Among 17 species considered, only gray-cheeked thrush ( Catharus minimus ) abundance was associated with the highest values of all shrub metrics in its top predictive model. All other species either declined in abundance in response to one or more shrub metrics or reached a threshold where further increases in shrubs did not contribute to greater abundance. In many instances the relationship between avian abundance and shrubs was nonlinear, with predicted abundance peaking at moderate values of the covariate, then declining at high values. In particular, a large number of species were responsive to increasing values of average shrub height with six species having highest abundance at near-zero values of shrub height and abundance of four other species decreasing once heights reached moderate values (≤ 33 cm). Our findings suggest that increases in shrub cover and density will negatively affect abundance of only a few bird species and may potentially be beneficial for many others. As shrub height increases further, however, a considerable number of tundra bird species will likely find habitat increasingly unsuitable.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Ecological and management implications of climate change induced shifts in phenology of coastal fish and wildlife species in the Northeast CASC region

Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and reproduction, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project seeks to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes, marine mammals,and migratory shore and seabirds along the U.S Atlantic coast. Ideally the suite of species selected will allow us to compare whether fish, marine mammals, shore and seabird predators are shifting their phenology at different rates than their primary prey and optimal habitat conditions, thus influencing trophic interactions and population dynamics. A comprehensive literature review will be conducted simultaneous to data collection and synthesis to determine what is known, and what knowledge/information/data gaps exist regarding regional phenological responses of coastal species to climate change. Project results will help managers assess the vulnerability of coastal species to climate change by providing information on how they are responding to impacts in the region.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2025

Methodology for quantifying biodiversity

Protected and Conserved Areas (PCAs) are usually created and managed for multiple values, with biodiversity conservation being the primary value for most PCAs (see Chapter 1). When using Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) or Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) approaches to climate change mitigation, it is important to ensure that there are no unintended negative consequences on biodiversity and co-benefits for biodiversity are sought. This requires baseline biodiversity information and periodic monitoring. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has developed a monitoring framework to measure progress (CBD COP 15 2022) towards the GBF. The framework consists of: • headline indicators for national, regional and global monitoring; • global level indicators (collated from yes/no responses in national reports and used to provide a count of the number of countries having undertaken specific activities); • component indicators (which are a list of optional indicators that may apply at global, regional, national and sub-national levels); • complementary indicators (which are a list of optional indicators for thematic or in-depth analysis of each goal and target). Further details of the monitoring framework can be found in Decision 15/5: Monitoring framework for the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (CBD COP 15, 2022). See Table 5.1 for headline indicators and related targets that they measure. These indicators are used to track national progress towards the GBF. However, those designing sub-national or regional PCA frameworks can use them as well. Biodiversity can be measured at different scales, both spatially and temporally, and at different levels and attributes of biological organisation (Noss, 1990). The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) (Convention on Biological Diversity, 2022, December 18) includes goals and targets across scales, with Targets 1 and 3 focused on spatial planning and PCA creation, Targets 2 and 4 focused on restoration and species management to prevent extinction, Target 5 focused on fish stocks, Target 8 on minimising climate change impacts, Target 11 on ecosystem services, and Target 21 on biodiversity information for monitoring the GBF.

IUCN WCPA Protected Area Technical Report Series↗

USGS2013

Alpine treeline of western North America: Linking organism-to-landscape dynamics

Although the ecological dynamics of the alpine treeline ecotone are influenced by climate, it is an imperfect indicator of climate change. Mechanistic processes that shape the ecotone—seed rain, seed germination, seedling establishment and subsequent tree growth form, or, conversely tree dieback—depend on microsite patterns. Growth forms affect wind and snow, and so develop positive and negative feedback loops that create these microsites. As a result, complex landscape patterns are generated at multiple spatial scales. Although these mechanistic processes are fundamentally the same for all forest-tundra ecotones across western North America, factors such as prior climate, underlying geology and geomorphology, and genetic constraints of dominant tree species lead to geographic differences in the responses of particular ecotones to climate change.

Physical Geography↗

USGS2026

Climate change vulnerability assessment for guiding ecosystem restoration in fire-prone landscapes of the western U.S.

Climate-driven alterations to fire regimes challenges forest management and restoration in the western United States, where increased wildfire severity threatens ecosystem integrity and resilience. In this study, we demonstrate the application of the FireCLIME (Fire-Climate-Landscape Interactions in Montane Ecosystems) Vulnerability Assessment (VA) as a decision-support tool for evaluating management actions, including restoration strategies, under climate uncertainty. Through collaborative workshops with USDA Forest Service managers, we assessed three project areas in two national forests: Lincoln National Forest (LNF, New Mexico) and Bighorn National Forest (BNF, Wyoming). These two locations represent distinct climate zones, forest ecosystems, and fire regimes. We examined how changing climate and fire regimes affect ecosystem vulnerability with the FireCLIME VA, which integrates exposure to climate and fire regime changes, ecosystem response factors, and adaptive capacity via management intervention to compare vulnerability outcomes relative to desired future conditions (DFC). Results revealed that forests that departed more from historical conditions (LNF) exhibited greater vulnerability. Soil burn severity and associated erosion emerged as common vulnerability drivers across all sites. For both forests, treatments were able to reduce departure from DFC. Treatment effectiveness varied by ecosystem type; some interventions demonstrated broad capacity to lower vulnerability and achieve DFC for a wide range of components, while others had more targeted effects for specific components. This assessment framework reveals substantial synergy between climate adaptation planning and restoration ecology principles, suggesting that vulnerability assessments can effectively guide restoration planning under climate uncertainty by balancing risk reduction with ecosystem resilience enhancement.

New Mexico, Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Mangrove forests and climate change: Impacts and interactions

The position of mangrove forests in the dynamic intertidal zone means that they are expected to be heavily impacted by climate change. Much focus is put on mangroves and their response to sea-level rise, but this ecosystem is exposed to a much broader range of climate change stressors, including increased storminess and waves, more dynamic and unpredictable precipitation patterns, and increases in air and sea surface temperatures, particularly at their latitudinal limits. We show that individual climate change stressors can have (rarely considered) positive, as well as negative impacts on mangroves and associated ecosystem functions such as carbon sequestration. While we generally study climate change stressors individually, they are not expected to act in isolation with other climate change stressors or with anthropogenic stressors. We present a stressor interaction framework previously suggested for coral reefs, and adapt it for use in mangroves, using the recent mangrove dieback in northern Australia as a case study. We show the benefits of moving mangrove and climate change research beyond the study of single stressors and towards identifying key synergistic and antagonistic interactions between climate change stressors.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

Life stage influences the resistance and resilience of black mangrove forests to winter climate extremes

In subtropical coastal wetlands on multiple continents, climate change-induced reductions in the frequency and intensity of freezing temperatures are expected to lead to the expansion of woody plants (i.e., mangrove forests) at the expense of tidal grasslands (i.e., salt marshes). Since some ecosystem goods and services would be affected by mangrove range expansion, there is a need to better understand mangrove sensitivity to freezing temperatures as well as the implications of changing winter climate extremes for mangrove-salt marsh interactions. In this study, we investigated the following questions: (1) how does plant life stage (i.e., ontogeny) influence the resistance and resilience of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) forests to freezing temperatures; and (2) how might differential life stage responses to freeze events affect the rate of mangrove expansion and salt marsh displacement due to climate change? To address these questions, we quantified freeze damage and recovery for different life stages (seedling, short tree, and tall tree) following extreme winter air temperature events that occurred near the northern range limit of A. germinans in North America. We found that life stage affects black mangrove forest resistance and resilience to winter climate extremes in a nonlinear fashion. Resistance to winter climate extremes was high for tall A. germinans trees and seedlings, but lowest for short trees. Resilience was highest for tall A. germinans trees. These results suggest the presence of positive feedbacks and indicate that climate-change induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme minimum air temperatures could lead to a nonlinear increase in mangrove forest resistance and resilience. This feedback could accelerate future mangrove expansion and salt marsh loss at rates beyond what would be predicted from climate change alone. In general terms, our study highlights the importance of accounting for differential life stage responses and positive feedbacks when evaluating the ecological effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes.

Louisiana↗

USGS2016

Simulated impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading to Lake Michigan

Phosphorus (P) loading to the Great Lakes has caused various types of eutrophication problems. Future climatic changes may modify this loading because climatic models project changes in future meteorological conditions, especially for the key hydrologic driver — precipitation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to project how P loading may change from the range of projected climatic changes. To project the future response in P loading, the HydroSPARROW approach was developed that links results from two spatially explicit models, the SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) transport and fate watershed model and the water-quantity Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS was used to project changes in streamflow throughout the Lake Michigan Basin using downscaled meteorological data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) subjected to three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Downscaled GCMs project a + 2.1 to + 4.0 °C change in average-annual air temperature (+ 2.6 °C average) and a − 5.1% to + 16.7% change in total annual precipitation (+ 5.1% average) for this geographic area by the middle of this century (2045–2065) and larger changes by the end of the century. The climatic changes by mid-century are projected to result in a − 21.2% to + 8.9% change in total annual streamflow (− 1.8% average) and a − 29.6% to + 17.2% change in total annual P loading (− 3.1% average). Although the average projected changes in streamflow and P loading are relatively small for the entire basin, considerable variability exists spatially and among GCMs because of their variability in projected future precipitation.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2022

Dynamic sensitivity to resource availability influences population responses to mismatches in a shorebird

Climate change has caused shifts in seasonally recurring biological events leading to the temporal decoupling of consumer-resource pairs – i.e., phenological mismatching. Although mismatches often affect individual fitness, they do not invariably scale up to affect populations, making it difficult to assess the risk they pose. Individual variation may contribute to this inconsistency, with changes in resource availability and consumer needs leading mismatches to have different outcomes over time. Nevertheless, most models estimate a consumer’s match from a single timepoint, potentially obscuring when mismatches matter to populations. We analyzed how the effects of mismatches varied over time by studying precocial Hudsonian godwit ( Limosa haemastica) chicks and their invertebrate prey from 2009 to 2019. We developed individual and population level models to determine how age-specific variation affect the relationship between godwits and resource availability. We found that periods with abundant resources led to higher growth and survival of godwit chicks, but also that chick survival was increasingly related to the availability of larger prey as chicks aged. At the population level, estimates of mismatches using age-structured consumer demand explained more variation in annual godwit fledging rates than more commonly used alternatives. Our study suggests that modeling the effects of mismatches as the disrupted interaction between dynamic consumer needs and resource availability clarifies when mismatches matter to both individuals and populations.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Elevation mediates juvenile steelhead demographic response to stream temperature and flow

Climate change alters streams by modifying flow dynamics, temperature, and biotic communities, changing the habitat where stream dwelling fish have evolved. We used snorkel survey data spanning four decades to investigate how juvenile steelhead (anadromous Oncorhynchus mykiss ) counts and size structure were influenced by stream temperature and flow. Warmer temperatures were associated with lower abundance and larger fish at low elevations and with higher abundance and smaller fish at higher elevations. Low flows were related to increased abundance and smaller fish at low elevations but to decreased abundance at high elevations, suggesting that lower elevation streams, which tend to be larger, provided additional habitat during low flows. High flows were negatively related to abundance and positively related to average size, suggesting emigration of fish in younger age-classes. Overall, steelhead exhibited greater resilience to warm temperatures at high elevations and, conversely, greater resilience to low and high flows at lower elevations. Understanding how streamflow and temperature affect juvenile steelhead abundance and size structure provides insight into how climate change can affect juvenile steelhead production.

Idaho↗

USGS2005

Analysis of vegetation distribution in Interior Alaska and sensitivity to climate change using a logistic regression approach

Aim: To understand drivers of vegetation type distribution and sensitivity to climate change. Location: Interior Alaska. Methods: A logistic regression model was developed that predicts the potential equilibrium distribution of four major vegetation types: tundra, deciduous forest, black spruce forest and white spruce forest based on elevation, aspect, slope, drainage type, fire interval, average growing season temperature and total growing season precipitation. The model was run in three consecutive steps. The hierarchical logistic regression model was used to evaluate how scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation and fire interval may influence the distribution of the four major vegetation types found in this region. Results: At the first step, tundra was distinguished from forest, which was mostly driven by elevation, precipitation and south to north aspect. At the second step, forest was separated into deciduous and spruce forest, a distinction that was primarily driven by fire interval and elevation. At the third step, the identification of black vs. white spruce was driven mainly by fire interval and elevation. The model was verified for Interior Alaska, the region used to develop the model, where it predicted vegetation distribution among the steps with an accuracy of 60-83%. When the model was independently validated for north-west Canada, it predicted vegetation distribution among the steps with an accuracy of 53-85%. Black spruce remains the dominant vegetation type under all scenarios, potentially expanding most under warming coupled with increasing fire interval. White spruce is clearly limited by moisture once average growing season temperatures exceeded a critical limit (+2 ??C). Deciduous forests expand their range the most when any two of the following scenarios are combined: decreasing fire interval, warming and increasing precipitation. Tundra can be replaced by forest under warming but expands under precipitation increase. Main conclusion: The model analyses agree with current knowledge of the responses of vegetation types to climate change and provide further insight into drivers of vegetation change. ?? 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2009

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2009

Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗