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USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy—A framework for understanding and responding to global change

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking. Since the passage of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the USGS has made substantial scientific contributions to understanding the interactive living and nonliving components of the Earth system. USGS natural science activities have led to fundamental advances in observing and understanding climate and land-cover change and the effects these changes have on ecosystems, natural-resource availability, and societal sustainability. Most of these major advances were pursued in partnership with other organizations within and outside the Department of the Interior. The inherent value of partnerships with other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies and natural-resource managers is emphasized in all aspects of the planning and implementation of this Science Strategy for the coming decade. Over the next 10 years, the USGS will make substantial contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change. The USGS will work with science partners, decisionmakers, and resource managers at local to international levels (including Native American tribes) to improve understanding of past and present change; develop relevant forecasts; and identify those lands, resources, and communities most vulnerable to global change processes. Science will play an essential role in helping communities and land and resource managers understand local to global implications, anticipate effects, prepare for changes, and reduce the risks associated with decisionmaking in a changing environment. USGS partners and stakeholders will benefit from the data, predictive models, and decision-support products and services resulting from the implementation of this strategy. This Science Strategy recognizes core USGS strengths that are applied to key societal problems. It establishes seven goals for USGS global change science and strategic actions that may be implemented in the short term (1–5 years) and the longer term (5–10 years) to improve our understanding of the following areas of inquiry: Rates, causes, and impacts of past global changes; The global carbon cycle; Biogeochemical cycles and their coupled interactions; Land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences; Droughts, floods, and water availability under changing land-use and climatic conditions; Coastal response to sea-level rise, climatic change, and human development; and Biological responses to global change. In addition to the seven thematic goals, we address the central role of monitoring in accordance with the USGS Science Strategy recommendation that global change research should rely on existing “…decades of observational data and long-term records to interpret consequences of climate variability and change to the Nation’s biological populations, ecosystems, and land and water resources” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007, p. 19). We also briefly describe specific needs and opportunities for coordinating USGS global change science among USGS Mission Areas and address the need for a comprehensive and sustained communications strategy.

Circular↗

USGS2017

Investigating the landscape of Arroyo Seco—Decoding the past—A teaching guide to climate-controlled landscape evolution in a tectonically active region

Introduction Arroyo Seco is a river that flows eastward out of the Santa Lucia Range in Monterey County, California. The Santa Lucia Range is considered part of the central California Coast Range. Arroyo Seco flows out of the Santa Lucia Range into the Salinas River valley, near the town of Greenfield, where it joins the Salinas River. The Salinas River flows north into Monterey Bay about 40 miles from where it merges with Arroyo Seco. In the mountain range, Arroyo Seco has cut or eroded a broad and deep valley. This valley preserves a geologic story in the landscape that is influenced by both fault-controlled mountain building (tectonics) and sea level fluctuations (regional climate). Broad flat surfaces called river terraces, once eroded by Arroyo Seco, can be observed along the modern drainage. In the valley, terraces are also preserved like climbing stairs up to 1,800 feet above Arroyo Seco today. These terraces mark where Arroyo Seco once flowed.The terraces were formed by the river because no matter how high they are, the terraces are covered by gravel deposits exactly like those that can be observed in the river today. The Santa Lucia Range, Arroyo Seco, and the Salinas River valley must have looked very different when the highest and oldest terraces were forming. The Santa Lucia Range may have been lower, the Arroyo Seco may have been steeper and wider, and the Salinas River valley may have been much smaller. Arroyo Seco, like all rivers, is always changing. Some-times rivers flow very straight, and sometimes they are curvy. Sometimes rivers are cutting down or eroding the landscape, and sometimes they are not eroding but depositing material. Sometimes rivers are neither eroding nor transporting material. The influences that change the behavior of Arroyo Seco are mountain uplift caused by fault moment and sea level changes driven by regional climate change. When a stream is affected by one or both of these influences, the stream accommodates the change by eroding, depositing, and (or) changing its shape. In the vicinity of Arroyo Seco, the geologically young faulting history is relatively well understood. Geologists have some sense of the most recent faulting event and of the faulting in the recent geologic past. The timing of regional climate changes is also well accepted. In this area, warm climate cycles tend to cause the sea level to rise, and cool climate cycles tend to cause the sea level to fall. If we understand the way the terraces form and their ages in Arroyo Seco, we can draw conclusions about whether faulting and (or) climate contributed to their formation. This publication serves as a descriptive companion to the formal geologic map of Arroyo Seco (Taylor and Sweetkind, 2014) and is intended for use by nonscientists and students. Included is a discussion of the processes that controlled the evolution of the drainage and the formation of the terraces in Arroyo Seco. The reader is guided to well-exposed landscape features in an easily accessible environment that will help nonscientists gain an understanding of how features on a geologic map are interpreted in terms of earth processes.

California↗

USGS2007

U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Climate Response Network

The U.S. Geological Survey serves the Nation by providing reliable hydrologic information used by others to manage the Nation's water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measures more than 20,000 wells each year for a variety of objectives as part of Federal programs and in cooperation with State and local agencies. Water-level data are collected using consistent data-collection and quality-control methods. A small subset of these wells meets the criteria necessary to be included in a 'Climate Response Network' of wells designed to illustrate the response of the ground-water system to climate variations nationwide. The primary purpose of the Climate Response Network is to portray the effect of climate on ground-water levels in unconfined aquifers or near-surface confined aquifers that are minimally affected by pumping or other anthropogenic stresses. The Climate Response Network Web site (http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/) is the official USGS Web site for illustrating current ground-water conditions in the United States and Puerto Rico. The Climate Response Network Web pages provide information on ground-water conditions at a variety of scales. A national map provides a broad overview of water-table conditions across the Nation. State maps provide a more local picture of ground-water conditions. Site pages provide the details about a specific well.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2010

Gulf of Mexico Climate-History Calibration Study

Reliable instrumental records of past climate are available for about the last 150 years only. To supplement the instrumental record, reconstructions of past climate are made from natural recorders such as trees, ice, corals, and microfossils preserved in sediments. These proxy records provide information on the rate and magnitude of past climate variability, factors that are critical to distinguishing between natural and human-induced climate change in the present. However, the value of proxy records is heavily dependent on calibration between the chemistry of the natural recorder and of the modern environmental conditions. The Gulf of Mexico Climate and Environmental History Project is currently undertaking a climate-history calibration study with material collected from an automated sediment trap. The primary focus of the calibration study is to provide a better calibration of low-latitude environmental conditions and shell chemistry of calcareous microfossils, such as planktic Foraminifera.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2012

USGS Hydro-Climatic Data Network 2009 (HCDN-2009)

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN) is a subset of all USGS streamgages for which the streamflow primarily reflects prevailing meteorological conditions for specified years. These stations were screened to exclude sites where human activities, such as artificial diversions, storage, and other activities in the drainage basin or the stream channel, affect the natural flow of the watercourse. In addition, sites were included in the network because their record length was sufficiently long for analysis of patterns in streamflow over time. The purpose of the network is to provide a streamflow dataset suitable for analyzing hydrologic variations and trends in a climatic context. When originally published, the network was composed of 1,659 stations (Slack and Landwehr, 1992) for which the years of primarily "natural" flow were identified. Since then data from the HCDN have been widely used and cited in climate-related hydrologic investigations of the United States. The network has also served as a model for establishing climate-sensitive streamgage networks in other countries around the world. After nearly two decades of use without undergoing a systematic revalidation, questions have arisen as to whether many of the original stations still maintain their climate-sensitive status or even remain operational, as some are known to have closed. Some watersheds had been altered to the point that stations no longer meet the minimal disturbance criteria set forth in the original HCDN report. In addition, some sites that did not qualify as HCDN sites in 1988 (the last year of data evaluation) because their records were too short now have sufficiently long streamflow records for climate-sensitivity studies. Accordingly, a review of the existing network was initiated in 2009 in order to drop old stations and add new ones as appropriate.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2015

Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

A new Web-based application, titled “Application of Flood Regressions and Climate Change Scenarios To Explore Estimates of Future Peak Flows”, has been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Transportation, that allows a user to apply a set of regression equations to estimate the magnitude of future floods for any stream or river in New York State (exclusive of Long Island) and the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont. The regression equations that are the basis of the current application were developed in previous investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are described at the USGS StreamStats Web sites for New York ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/new_york.html ) and Vermont ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/Vermont.html ). These regression equations include several fixed landscape metrics that quantify aspects of watershed geomorphology, basin size, and land cover as well as a climate variable—either annual precipitation or annual runoff. The application uses predictions of future annual precipitation from five climate models and two future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and provides results that are averaged over three future periods—2025 to 2049, 2050 to 2074, and 2075 to 2099. Results are presented in ensemble form as the mean, median, maximum, and minimum values among the five climate models for each greenhouse gas emissions scenario and period. These predictions of future annual precipitation are substituted into either the precipitation variable or a water balance equation for runoff to calculate potential future peak flows. This application is intended to be used only as an exploratory tool because (1) the regression equations on which the application is based have not been adequately tested outside the range of the current climate and (2) forecasting future precipitation with climate models and downscaling these results to a fine spatial resolution have a high degree of uncertainty. This report includes a discussion of the assumptions, uncertainties, and appropriate use of this exploratory application.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Report from the workshop on climate downscaling and its application in high Hawaiian Islands, September 16–17, 2015

In the subtropical and tropical Pacific islands, changing climate is predicted to influence precipitation and freshwater availability, and thus is predicted to impact ecosystems goods and services available to ecosystems and human communities. The small size of high Hawaiian Islands, plus their complex microlandscapes, require downscaling of global climate models to provide future projections of greater skill and spatial resolution. Two different climate modeling approaches (physics-based dynamical downscaling and statistics-based downscaling) have produced dissimilar projections. Because of these disparities, natural resource managers and decision makers have low confidence in using the modeling results and are therefore are unwilling to include climate-related projections in their decisions. In September 2015, the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC), the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC), and the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) program convened a 2-day facilitated workshop in which the two modeling teams, plus key model users and resource managers, were brought together for a comparison of the two approaches, culminating with a discussion of how to provide predictions that are useable by resource managers. The proceedings, discussions, and outcomes of this Workshop are summarized in this Open-File Report.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

The Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center synthesis report 2011–15—Projects, products, and science priorities

Introduction In 2009, the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar established a network of eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSCs) that, along with the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), would help define and implement the Department's climate adaptation response. The Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) was established at North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, in 2010, under a 5-year cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), to identify and address the regional challenges presented by climate change and variability in the Southeastern United States. All eight regional CSC hosts, including NCSU, were selected through a competitive process. Since its opening, the focus of the SE CSC has been on working with partners in the identification and development of research-based information that can assist managers, including cultural and natural resource managers, in adapting to global change processes, such as climate and land use change, that operate at local to global scales and affect resources important to the DOI mission. The SE CSC was organized to accomplish three goals: Provide co-produced, researched based, actionable science that supports transparent global change adaptation decisions . Convene conversations among decision makers, scientists, and managers to identify key ecosystem adaptation decisions driven by climate and land use change, the values and objectives that will be used to make decisions, and the research-based information needed to assess adaptation options . Build the capacity of natural resource professionals, university faculty, and students to understand and frame natural resource adaptation decisions and develop and use research-based information to make adaptation decisions . This report provides an overview of the SE CSC and the projects developed by the SE CSC since its inception. An important goal of this report is to provide a framework for understanding the evolution of the SE CSC science agenda, which has evolved over the first 5 years of the Center’s operation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

Public Summary We worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises. In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention. In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or artifacts and revealed substantial opportunities for different agencies to learn from each other and cooperate on common management goals. Follow up quantitative simulation modeling of grassland dynamics helped quantify the degree of change expected in vegetation production under the wide range of climate scenarios and suggested that (a) low grazing rates could be adversely affecting vegetation composition in the national park and (b) understanding of the management practices needed to maintain desired vegetation conditions is incomplete.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo↗

USGS2019

Climate adaptation Science Centers—Annual report for 2018

2018 marked the 10-year anniversary of the establishment of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center! With the passage of the fiscal year 2018 budget on March 23, 2018, our program name was changed from the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center to the National Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCASC). The eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers were renamed Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs). The name changes more clearly align the national and regional centers and emphasize their focus on meeting natural resource adaptation needs. Although the program has a new name, our mission has not changed. We are still hard at work delivering science to help fish, wildlife, water, land, and people adapt to a changing climate. During the past 10 years, the NCASC and the eight regional CASCs funded over 425 science projects and built a network of research partners, resource management stakeholders, interdisciplinary staff, fellows, and early career researchers. In celebration of our work and accomplishments over the last 10 years, the NCASC began a monthly web post series on “10 Things You May Not Know” about topics our science has focused on, including drought, glaciers, and wildfire. Additionally, CASCs that had completed their initial hosting agreement with the USGS underwent a formal review and recompetition process. New hosting agreements were awarded to the Southwest and North Central CASCs in 2018. Read the 2018 annual report to learn more about the CASCs' great science, partnerships, capacity building, and more from 2018.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Potential effects of climate change on Appalachian stoneflies ( Remenus kirchneri , Acroneuria kosztarabi , and Tallaperla lobata )

Plecoptera (stoneflies) are an order of insects where most species rely on clean, fast-moving freshwater for an aquatic larval stage followed by a short terrestrial adult stage. Most species of Plecoptera seem to be restricted to specific stream types and thermal regimes. Climate-driven changes are likely to alter stream temperatures and flow, resulting in physiological stress, reduced reproductive success, and possibly latitudinal or elevational distribution shifts. This report focuses on climate projections and the resulting ecological effect for three species of Appalachian stoneflies: Remenus kirchneri , Acroneuria kosztarabi , and Tallaperla lobata . Although species-specific information is sparse for these three species, climate studies for other Plecoptera spp. are applicable. In the focal region, temperature is increasing and likely leading to increased stream temperatures. In response, Plecoptera spp. will likely experience physiological stress from increasing metabolic rates and energy demands concurrent with changing food quality and access. Warming temperatures and decreased larval energy stores are likely to contribute to lower adult body size and longevity, thus decreasing reproductive success. Whereas projected changes to precipitation and runoff are less certain, under drier future climate projections, decreased streamflow may further stress larval Plecoptera. Remenus kirchneri , A. kosztarabi , and T. lobata will likely retain stable permanent stream habitats for the analyzed future (2006–99). Changing climate is of particular concern for mountaintop species R. kirchneri and T. lobata because they may be unable to track shifts in suitable climate and habitat.

North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia↗

USGS2024

Approaches for using CMIP projections in climate model ensembles to address the ‘hot model’ problem

Several recent generation global-climate models were found to have anomalously high climate sensitivities and may not be useful for certain applications. Four approaches for developing ensembles of climate projections for applications that address this issue are: Using an “all models” approach; Screening using equilibrium climate sensitivity and (or) transient climate response; Bayesian model averaging; and Using global warming levels. Advantages and disadvantages of each approach are described by using example applications to study the effects of climate change on an imaginary at-risk species. Choosing the right approach is dependent on the location, goals, and system focus of each application and the risk-tolerance and resource-management context.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Science needs for determining the effects of climate change on harmful algal blooms in the southeastern United States

The Southeastern United States has many lakes, streams, and reservoirs that serve as important drinking water sources with recreational, agricultural, and ecological uses. However, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming more common in these waters, causing health issues for humans and animals. HABs have been listed as a contaminant of emerging concern, and the magnitude, frequency, and duration of HABs appear to be increasing at the global scale. While it is well known that nutrients stimulate algae growth, it is not clear how climate change and other parameters stimulate the development of toxin production by HABs. The scientific literature describes parameters, such as storm occurrence, temperature, dissolved metals, erosion of soils, increasing length of growing season, discharge, and hydroperiod, that may affect algae growth and toxin production. Climate and hydrologic models address many of the physical and environmental parameters that influence HABs, but no climate models directly address HABs. This report compiles information from the existing literature pertaining to HABs and the modeling and forecasting of HABS. This compilation is done through the incorporation of climate change models. HAB research that involves climate change will require multiple disciplines that bring together ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists, engineers, economists, and new technology. Resource managers could use geographic data about the occurrence and distribution of HABs to develop models that identify waterbodies more vulnerable to HAB events. Development of such models will require teams capable of integrating biological, chemical, and physical factors. Model development will require additional research that can resolve anthropogenic and climate-related environmental factors to identify trends in freshwater HABs. The complexity and interconnectedness of the parameters that influence HAB occurrences will make model development challenging and require rigorous regional calibration.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1993

Sensitivity of water resources in the Delaware River basin to climate variability and change

Because of the "greenhouse effect," projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels might cause global warming, which in turn could result in changes in precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration and in increases in sea level. This report describes the greenhouse effect; discusses the problems and uncertainties associated with the detection, prediction, and effects of climatic change, and presents the results of sensitivity-analysis studies of the potential effects of climate change on water resources in the Delaware River basin. On the basis of sensitivity analyses, potentially serious shortfalls of certain water resources in the basin could result if some climatic-change scenarios become true. The results of basin streamflow-model simulations in this study demonstrate the difficulty in distinguishing effects of climatic change on streamflow and water supply from effects of natural variability in current climate. The future direction of basin changes in most water resources, furthermore, cannot be determined precisely because of uncertainty in current projections of regional temperature and precipitation. This large uncertainty indicates that, for resource planning, information defining the sensitivities of water resources to a range of climate change is most relevant. The sensitivity analyses could be useful in developing contingency plans on how to evaluate and respond to changes, should they occur.

Delaware;New Jersey;Pennsylvania↗

USGS2006

Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America - Alaska species and ecoregions

Climate is the primary factor in controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges is only now beginning to be quantified. Preceding volumes of this atlas explored the continental-scale relations between climatic parameters and the distributions of woody plant species across all of the continent of North America. This volume presents similar information for important woody species, groups of species, and ecoregions in more detail for the State of Alaska. For these analyses, we constructed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America from instrumental weather records. We obtained a digital representation of the geographic distribution of each species or ecoregion, either from a published source or by digitizing the published distributions ourselves. The presence or absence of each species or ecoregion was then determined for each point on the 25-kilometer grid, thus providing a basis for comparison of the climatic data with the geographic distribution of each species or ecoregion. The relations between climate and these distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Terrestrial essential climate variables (ECVs) at a glance

The Global Terrestrial Observing System, Global Climate Observing System, World Meteorological Organization, and Committee on Earth Observation Satellites all support consistent global land observations and measurements. To accomplish this goal, the Global Terrestrial Observing System defined 'essential climate variables' as measurements of atmosphere, oceans, and land that are technically and economically feasible for systematic observation and that are needed to meet the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and requirements of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The following are the climate variables defined by the Global Terrestrial Observing System that relate to terrestrial measurements. Several of them are currently measured most appropriately by in-place observations, whereas others are suitable for measurement by remote sensing technologies. The U.S. Geological Survey is the steward of the Landsat archive, satellite imagery collected from 1972 to the present, that provides a potential basis for deriving long-term, global-scale, accurate, timely and consistent measurements of many of these essential climate variables.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2006

Atlas of climatic controls of wildfire in the western United States

Wildfire behavior depends on several factors including ecologic characteristics, near-term and antecedent climatic conditions,fuel availability and moisture level, weather, and sources of ignition (lightning or human). The variability and interplay of these factors over many spatial and temporal scales present an ongoing challenge to our ability to forecast a given wildfire season. Here we focus on one aspect of wildfire in the western US through a retrospective analysis of wildfire (starts and area burned) and climate over monthly time scales. We consider prefire conditions up to a year preceding fire outbreaks. For our analysis, we used daily and monthly wildfire records and a combination of observed and model-simulated atmospheric and surface climate data. The focus of this report is on monthly wildfire and climate for the period 1980-2000. Although a longer fire record is desirable, the 21-year record is the longest currently available and it is sufficient for the purpose of a first-order regional analysis. We present the main results in the form of a wildfire-climate atlas for 8 subregions of the West that can be used by resource managers to assess current wildfire conditions relative to high, normal, and low fire years in the historical record. Our results clearly demonstrate the link between wildfire conditions and a small set of climatic variables, and our methodology is a framework for providing near-real-time assessments of current wildfire conditions in the West.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

A Spatial Landscape Model of Forest Patch Dynamics and Climate Change

FOREL (a FOREst Landscape model) is an individual-based, multi-scale simulator of forest and climate dynamics. Rationale and design of the model are presented in relation to other forest patch models. Information on implementation of the model is also provided. Capabilities of the FOREL model are demonstrated for forest composition, structure and dynamics along climatic gradients. The model relies on a patch simulation approach that has been tested and developed by independent ecologists for more than three decades. Improvements made over the last decade to the simulation of climate effects on trees are incorporated in the landscape model. A single parameterization of the model is capable of simulating major shifts in forest composition and structure across broad climatic gradients. It is responsive along moisture gradients and temperature gradients. The landscape model is flexible and can be altered easily to test various assumptions about the effects of climate on trees, and the effects of spatial pattern on processes operating within and among forest stands. The spatial structure of the model makes interaction of patches possible. Interactions may include dispersal of propagules and competition for light. The model is a useful tool for projecting temporal climate change effects on forested sites, landscapes and regions.

Scientific Investigations Report↗