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At least 667 records · Page 37Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Delineation of selected lithologic units using airborne electromagnetic data near Cedar Rapids, Iowa

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Cedar Rapids, began a study in 2013 to better understand the effects of drought stress on the Cedar River alluvial aquifer. After an evaluation of the existing groundwater-flow models for the alluvial aquifer, a plan was begun to construct an updated groundwater-flow model capable of evaluating the effect of prolonged drought and increased demand. As part of the effort to update the existing groundwater-flow model, data were collected during an airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey in May 2017. The study area for the AEM survey encompasses about 53 square kilometers of the Cedar River Basin, west of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and includes a 19-kilometer reach of the Cedar River. The AEM survey of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer and adjacent areas was completed to characterize the subsurface geology of the area to refine a lithologic framework. The collected AEM data were postprocessed by numerical inversion using the program EM1DFM to produce subsurface apparent resistivity cross sections. Changes observed in resistivity profile values with depth were used to infer lithologic changes and delineate three of the four lithologic units designated in the lithologic framework for this area: alluvial deposits, glacial till, and bedrock; hereafter referred to as the “lithologic framework.” The fourth unit, composed of surficial eolian sediments, was not delineated in these profiles because these units are thin and discontinuous and are not reliably distinguishable from flood plain alluvial deposits. For the purposes of delineating lithologic units using the AEM data, bedrock was assumed to be the lowest unit in a profile, glacial till was deposited on a bedrock surface, and alluvium was deposited on erosional till or bedrock surfaces. A three-dimensional fence diagram was created as part of the lithologic framework to further define the extent and thickness of the lithologic units near the Cedar River alluvial aquifer. The fence diagram shows a three-dimensional perspective of unit thickness, extent, and orientation of the delineated lithologic framework. A lithologic framework, by design, is intended to represent a simplification of a more complex natural system through data interpolation between known points, which usually are lithologic logs. The resistivity profiles produced from the AEM survey allow for continuous mapping and accurate interpolation of lithology between lithologic logs; however, the apparent resistivity value may reflect several characteristics of subsurface materials including variations in lithology, porosity, water quality, grain sorting, and degree of saturation. In this study, the only variables considered were those related to changes in the subsurface material.

Iowa↗
USGS2022

Geomorphic survey of North Fork Eagle Creek, New Mexico, 2019

The 2012 Little Bear Fire resulted in substantial loss of vegetation in the Eagle Creek Basin, south-central New Mexico, which has been expected to cause a variety of hydrologic responses that could influence geomorphic change to North Fork Eagle Creek. To monitor geomorphic change, surveys of a downstream study reach of North Fork Eagle Creek were conducted in 2017, 2018, and 2019 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Village of Ruidoso, N. Mex. The study included surveys of select cross sections, woody debris accumulations, and pools found in the channel of the study reach. During 2017–19, high-flow events resulting from both monsoonal rainfall and snowmelt runoff occurred in the study reach, and the events appeared to have caused some minor localized geomorphic changes in the study reach, which were evaluated through comparison of the 2017, 2018, and 2019 survey results. Comparisons of the cross-section survey results indicated that minor geomorphic changes had occurred in 4 of the 14 cross sections surveyed from 2017 to 2019. These geomorphic changes included aggradation or degradation of surface materials by about 1–2 feet in some parts of the affected cross sections. During the 2019 survey, 164 distinct accumulations of woody debris and 228 pools were identified in the study reach. Of the woody debris accumulations identified during the 2019 survey, 67 were certain to have also been present during the 2018 survey, and 21 were certain to have also been present during all three surveys (2017–19), indicating that most of the woody debris accumulations surveyed in 2017 were likely transported during the high-flow events between the 2017 and 2018 surveys. Most woody debris accumulations identified in 2019 did not appear to have substantially influenced geomorphic change in the locations where they were found but may have driven local geomorphic changes. Because the study began 5 years after the 2012 Little Bear Fire and the geomorphic scope of the study has so far been limited, it cannot be said that the changes observed between the 2017 and 2019 surveys are representative of a pattern of geomorphic change following the Little Bear Fire. Once geomorphic changes identified during the 2017 through 2019 surveys can be compared with results from the remaining planned geomorphic surveys, it may be possible to develop an understanding of the patterns in geomorphic change following the 2012 Little Bear Fire.

New Mexico↗
USGS2014

Integrated hydrologic model of Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

Increasing population, agricultural development (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available groundwater resources in the Pajaro Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This study provided a refined conceptual model, geohydrologic framework, and integrated hydrologic model of the Pajaro Valley. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that are being considered in the revision and updates to the Basin Management Plan (BMP). The Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) was designed to reproduce the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system and related climatic factors, permitting an accurate assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform the new BMP and help to improve planning for long-term sustainability of water resources. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, reevaluation of the previous model transformed into MODFLOW, implementation of the new geohydrologic model and conceptual model, and calibration of the transient hydrologic model. The PVHM model, using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP2), is capable of being accurate at seasonal to interannual time frames and subregional to valley-wide spatial scales for the assessment of the groundwater hydrologic budget for water years 1964–2009, as well as potential assessment of the BMP components and sustainability analysis of conjunctive use. The model provides a good representation of the regional flow system and the use and movement of water throughout the valley. Simulated changes in storage over time show that, prior to the 1984–92 dry period, significant withdrawals from storage occurred only during drought years. Since about 1993, growers in the Pajaro Valley have shifted to more water intensive crops, such as strawberries, bushberries, and vegetable row crops, as well as making additional rotational plantings, which have increased demand on limited groundwater resources. Simulated groundwater flow indicates that vertical hydraulic gradients between horizontal layers fluctuate and even reverse in several parts of the basin as recharge and pumpage rates change seasonally and annually. The majority of recharge predominantly enters the Alluvial aquifer system, and along with pumpage and the largest fractions of storage depletion, occurs in the inland regions. Coastal inflow as seawater intrusion replaces much of the potential storage depletion in the coastal regions. The simulated long-term imbalance between inflows and outflows indicates overdraft of the groundwater basin averaging about 12,950 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) over the 46-year period of water years (1964–2009). Annual overdraft varies considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatically driven factors can affect inflows, outflows, and water use by as much as a factor of two between wet and dry years. Coastal inflows and outflows vary by year and by aquifer; the net coastal inflow, or seawater intrusion, ranges from about 1,000 to more than 6,000 acre-ft/yr. Maps of simulated and measured water-level elevations indicate regions with water levels below sea level in the alluvium and Aromas layers. Ongoing expansion of local hydrologic monitoring networks indicates the importance of these networks to the understanding of changes in groundwater flow, streamflow, and streamflow infiltration. In particular, the monitoring of streamflow, groundwater pumpage, and groundwater levels throughout the valley not only indicates the state of the resources, but also provides valuable information for model calibration and for model-based evaluation of management actions. The HS-ASR was simulated for the years 2002–09, and replaced about about 1,290 acre-ft of coastal pumpage. This was combined with the simulation of additional 6,200 acre-ft of deliveries from supplemental wells, recycled water, and city connection deliveries through the CDS that also supplanted some coastal pumpage. Total simulated deliveries were 7,350 acre-ft of the 7,500 acre-ft of reported deliveries for the period 2002-09. The completed CDS should be capable of delivering about 8.8 million cubic meters (7,150 acre-ft) of water per year to coastal farms within the Pajaro Valley, if all the local supply components were fully available for this purpose. This would represent about 15 percent of the 48,300 acre-ft (59.6 million cubic meters) average agricultural pumpage for the period 2005 to 2009. Combined with the potential capture and reuse of some of the return flows and tile-drain flows, this could represent an almost 70 percent reduction of average overdraft for the entire valley and a large part of the coastal pumpage that induces seawater intrusion.

California↗
USGS2022

Virginia Bridge Scour Pilot Study—Hydrological Tools

Hydrologic and geophysical components interact to produce streambed scour. This study investigates methods for improving the utility of estimates of hydrologic flow in streams and rivers used when evaluating potential pier scour over the design-life of highway bridges in Virginia. Recent studies of streambed composition identify potential bridge design cost savings when attributes of cohesive soil and weathered rock unique to certain streambeds are considered within the bridge planning design. To achieve potential cost savings, however, attributes and effects of scour forces caused by water movement across the streambed surface must be accurately described and estimated. This study explores the potential for improving estimates of the hydrologic component, namely hydrologic flow, afforded by empirically based deterministic, probabilistic, and statistical modeling of flows using streamgage data from 10 selected sites in Virginia. Methods are described and tools are provided that may assist with estimating hydrological components of flow duration and potential cumulative stream power for bridge designs in specific settings, and calculation of comprehensive projections of anticipated individual bridge pier scour rates. Examples of hydrologic properties needed to determine the rates of streambed scour are described for sites spanning a range of basin sizes and locations in Virginia. Deterministic, probabilistic, and statistical modeling methods are demonstrated for estimating hydrological components of streambed scour over a bridge design lifespan. Eight tools provide examples of streamflow analysis using daily and instantaneous streamflow data collected at 10 study sites in Virginia. Tool 1 provides a generalized system dynamics model of streamflow and sediment motion that may be used to estimate hydrologic flow over time. Tool 2 illustrates at-a-station hydraulic geometry using methods pioneered by Leopold and others. Tool 3 provides a system dynamics model developed to test the use of Monte-Carlo sampling of instantaneous streamflow measurements to augment and increase precision of site-specific period-of-record daily-flow values useful for driving stream-power and streambed scour estimates. Tool 4 integrates deterministic modeling, maximum likelihood logistic regression, and Monte-Carlo sampling to identify probable hydrologic flows. Tool 5 provides instantaneous flow hydrologic envelope profiles, using measured instantaneous flow data integrated with measured daily-flow value data. Tool 6 provides precise estimates of hydrologic flow over entire data time-series suitable for driving scour simulation models. Tool 7 provides a threshold of flow and probability of time-under-load interactive calculator that allows selection of a desired bridge design lifespan, ranging from 1 to 250 years, and identification of a flow interval of interest. Tool 8 provides a flow-random sampling interactive tool, developed to facilitate easy access to large datasets of randomly sampled flow data measurements from unique locations for purposes of computing and testing future models of bridge pier scour.

Virginia↗
USGS1996

Hydrology and water quality of Lauderdale Lakes, Walworth County, Wisconsin, 1993-94

Water and phosphorus budgets were determined for the Lauderdale Lakes (the interconnected Green, Middle, and Mill Lakes) in Walworth County, southeastern Wisconsin to provide background information for a wastewater management plan to limit the input of phosphorus to the lakes. The most significant components of the water and phosphorus budgets were determined independently by intensive data collection from November 1993 through October 1994. In addition to development of the water and phosphorus budgets, in-lake water quality, and trophic state of the lakes were evaluated. The lakes (treated as one lake with three basins) have a total surface area of 807 acres. The lakes have a surface-water outlet, but have no major surface inlets. Lake level is controlled by a dam and weir at the outlet. Maximum depths of Green, Middle, and Mill Lakes are about 60, 50, and 50 feet, respectively. The total drainage area of the lakes measured from the outlet is 16.1 square miles; only about 2.5 square miles, however, contribute surface runoff directly to the lake. About 70 percent of the 14.7-mile shoreline length is developed. Shoreline development includes 1,010 houses, of which about 30 percent are used year-round. Ground water and precipitation are the primary water-budget inflow components, and during the study period represented 72 and 24 percent of the total annual inflow, respectively. Surface-water inflow from the small nearshore contributing drainage area accounted for only 4 percent of the inflow budget. Total annual phosphorus input to the lakes was 846 pounds. Although surface water accounted for only 4 percent of the water budget, it represented 51 percent of the total annual phosphorus input. Phosphorus input from septic systems was the second largest source, with a probable annual input of 210 pounds, accounting for 25 percent of the total. Positive ground-water gradients to the lake and phosphorus concentrations in ground water were verified by data from nearshore observation wells. Phosphorus concentrations in ground water exceeded background concentrations of 0.008 milligrams per liter in three out of six observation wells in the inflow area of the lakes. Overall, the phosphorus loading to the lakes is small and lake-water quality is good. The trophic state indices calculated for the lakes ranged from oligotrophic to mesotrophic but were in the mesotrophic class for most of the year. An equation to predict phosphorus concentration at spring turnover from loading estimates was fairly accurate in predicting the measured phosphorus concentration for Lauderdale Lakes.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2010

Assessment of ecological conditions and potential effects of water produced from coalbed natural gas development on biological communities in streams of the Powder River structural basin, Wyoming and Montana, 2005-08

Ongoing development of coalbed natural gas in the Powder River structural basin in Wyoming and Montana led to formation of an interagency task group to address concerns about the effects of the resulting production water on biological communities in streams of the area. The interagency task group developed a monitoring plan and conducted sampling of macroinvertebrate, algal, and fish communities at 47 sites during 2005-08 to document current ecological conditions and determine existing and potential effects of water produced from coalbed natural gas development on biological communities. Macroinvertebrate, algal, and fish community composition varied between drainage basins, among sites within drainage basins, and by year. Macroinvertebrate communities of the main-stem Tongue River were characterized by higher taxa richness and higher abundance of Ephemeroptera, for example, compared to macroinvertebrate communities in plains tributaries of the Tongue River and the main-stem Powder River. Fish communities of the Tongue River were characterized by higher taxa richness and abundance of introduced species compared to the Powder River where native species were dominant. Macroinvertebrate community metric values from sites in the middle reach of the main-stem Powder River, from below Willow Creek to below Crazy Woman Creek, differed from metric values in the upper and lower reaches of the Powder River. Metrics indicative of communitywide differences included measures of taxa richness, relative abundance, feeding mode, and tolerance. Some of the variation in the macroinvertebrate communities could be explained by variation in environmental variables, including physical (turbidity, embeddedness, bed substrate size, and streamflow) and chemical (alkalinity and specific conductance) variables. Of these environmental variables, alkalinity was the best indicator of coalbed natural gas development because of the sodiumbicarbonate signature of the production water. Algal samples from the main-stem Powder River generally confirmed the pattern observed in the macroinvertebrate communities. Algal communities at sites in the middle reach of the Powder River commonly were characterized by dominance by a single taxon and by low biovolume of algae compared to other sites. In contrast to the macroinvertebrate and algal communities, species richness of fish communities was highest in the middle reach of the Powder River. Although a few significant differences in fish metrics were determined along the main-stem Powder River, the differences did not correspond to the pattern observed for the macroinvertebrate and algae communities. Differences in biological communities were noted between years, potentially due to the effects of drought. Macroinvertebrate community metrics, such as Diptera taxa richness, were significantly different in the severe drought year of 2006 from metric values in 2005 and 2007-08. Waterquality data collected during the study indicated that, with few exceptions, water-quality constituents generally did not exceed State or Federal acute and chronic criteria for the protection of aquatic life.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1979

A one-dimensional, steady-state dissolved-oxygen model and waste-load assimilation study for Cedar Creek, Dekalb and Allen counties, Indiana

The Indiana State Board of Health is developing a State water-quality management plan that includes the establishing of limits for wastewater effluents discharged into Indiana streams. A digital model calibrated to conditions in Cedar Creek was used to develop alternatives for future waste loadings that would be compatible with Indiana stream water-quality standards defined for two critical hydrologic conditions, summer and winter low flows. All point-source waste loads affecting Cedar Creek are in the four incorporated municipalities of Auburn, Garrett, Huntertown, and Waterloo, in a primarily agricultural area. Avilla, because of its distance from Cedar Creek, does not significantly affect the water quality of the modeled segment. The model indicates that the dissolved-oxygen concentration of the Auburn wastewater effluent and nitrification are the most significant factors affecting the dissolved-oxygen concentration in Cedar Creek during summer low flows. The observed dissolved-oxygen concentration of the Auburn wastewater effluent was low, and averaged 30 percent of saturation. Whether the effluent is aerated before discharge will ultimately define the waste-load assimilative capacity of Cedar Creek. Projected nitrogenous biochemical-oxygen demand loads, from the Indiana State Board of Health, for the Auburn and Waterloo wastewater-treatment facilities will result in violations of the current instream dissolved-oxygen standard (5 milligrams per liter), even with an effluent dissolved-oxygen concentration of 80 percent saturation. Natural streamflow for Cedar Creek upstream from the confluence of Willow and Little Cedar Creeks is small compared with the waste discharge, so benefits of dilution for Waterloo and Auburn are minimal. Stream reaeration capacity is not sufficient to maintain an average dissolved-oxygen concentration of at least 5 milligrams per liter, the State's water-quality standard for streams. The model also indicates that, during winter low flows, ammonia toxicity, rather than dissolved oxygen, is the limiting water-quality criterion in the reach of Cedar Creek downstream from the wastewater-treatment facility at Auburn and the confluence of Garrett ditch. Ammonia-nitrogen concentrations predicted for 2978 through 2000 downstream from the Waterloo wastewater-treatment facility do not exceed Indiana water-quality standards for streams. Calculations of the stream's assimilative capacity indicate that future waste discharge in the Cedar Creek basin will be limited to the reaches between the Auburn wastewater-treatment facility and County Road 68.

Indiana↗
USGS2019

Techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak flows on small streams in the binational U.S. and Canadian Lake of the Woods–Rainy River Basin upstream from Kenora, Ontario, Canada, based on data through water year 2013

A binational study was initiated to update statistical equations that are used to estimate the magnitude and frequency of peak flows on streams in Manitoba and Ontario, Canada, and Minnesota that are contained within the binational Lake of the Woods–Rainy River Basin upstream from Kenora, Ontario, Canada. Hydraulic engineers use peak streamflow data to inform designs of bridges, culverts, and dams, and water managers use peak streamflow data to inform regulation and planning activities. However, long-term streamflow measurements are available at few locations along the more than 20,000 miles of stream/ditch networks within the binational Lake of the Woods–Rainy River Basin upstream from Kenora, Ontario, Canada. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 66.7-, 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 1.5-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively, are presented for 49 streamgages in Minnesota and adjacent areas in the Province of Ontario, Canada, based on data collected through water year 2013. Peak-flow frequency information was subsequently used in regression analyses to develop equations relating peak flows for selected recurrence intervals to various basin and climatic characteristics. The study area includes 49 streamgages located in the binational Lake of the Woods–Rainy River Basin upstream from Kenora, Ontario, Canada, and is represented by southern portions of the Canadian Provinces of Manitoba (2 percent) and Ontario (56 percent) and the northern portion of the U.S. State of Minnesota (42 percent). The study area was represented by three regions that were defined in previous studies in the U.S. State of Minnesota and another in the Canadian Province of Ontario. The two Minnesota regions A and B were developed using a multiple regression method and hydrologic landscape units were used to validate regions in Minnesota. The Ontario region A was developed using a multiple regression method and standardized residuals from the 100-year recurrence intervals. Canadian maximum instantaneous peak-flow data were converted from a calendar year to a water year (October 1 to September 30) and where the annual maximum instantaneous peak-flow value was not available in HYDAT, the Sangal method was applied to known average daily flow values to estimate an annual maximum instantaneous peak-flow value. Geographic information system software was used to calculate eight characteristics investigated as potential explanatory variables in the regression analyses. The procedure for estimating peak-flow frequency for selected exceedance probabilities for a specific ungaged site depends on whether the site is near a streamgage on the same stream or is on an ungaged stream. For an ungaged site near a streamgage on the same stream, the drainage-area ratio method can be used. For an ungaged site on an ungaged stream, the regional regression equations developed for this study should be used. All equations presented in this study will be incorporated into StreamStats, a web-based geographic information system tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. StreamStats allows users to obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected locations on streams through an interactive map.

Manitoba, Minnesota, Ontario↗
USGS1998

Probability of detecting atrazine/desethyl-atrazine and elevated concentrations of nitrate (NO2+NO3-N) in ground water in the Idaho part of the upper Snake River basin

Draft Federal regulations may require that each State develop a State Pesticide Management Plan for the herbicides atrazine, alachlor, cyanazine, metolachlor, and simazine. This study developed maps that the Idaho State Department of Agriculture might use to predict the probability of detecting atrazine and desethyl-atrazine (a breakdown product of atrazine) in ground water in the Idaho part of the upper Snake River Basin. These maps can be incorporated in the State Pesticide Management Plan and help provide a sound hydrogeologic basis for atrazine management in the study area. Maps showing the probability of detecting atrazine/desethyl-atrazine in ground water were developed as follows: (1) Ground-water monitoring data were overlaid with hydrogeologic and anthropogenic data using a geographic information system to produce a data set in which each well had corresponding data on atrazine use, depth to ground water, geology, land use, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Individual (univariate) relations between atrazine/desethyl-atrazine in ground water and atrazine use, depth to ground water, geology, land use, precipitation, soils, and well depth data were evaluated to identify those independent variables significantly related to atrazine/ desethyl-atrazine detections. (3) Several preliminary multivariate models with various combinations of independent variables were constructed. (4) The multivariate models which best predicted the presence of atrazine/desethyl-atrazine in ground water were selected. (5) The multivariate models were entered into the geographic information system and the probability maps were constructed. Two models which best predicted the presence of atrazine/desethyl-atrazine in ground water were selected; one with and one without atrazine use. Correlations of the predicted probabilities of atrazine/desethyl-atrazine in ground water with the percent of actual detections were good; r-squared values were 0.91 and 0.96, respectively. Models were verified using a second set of groundwater quality data. Verification showed that wells with water containing atrazine/desethyl-atrazine had significantly higher probability ratings than wells with water containing no atrazine/desethylatrazine (p <0.002). Logistic regression also was used to develop a preliminary model to predict the probability of nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations greater than background levels of 2 milligrams per liter. A direct comparison between the atrazine/ desethyl-atrazine and nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen probability maps was possible because the same ground-water monitoring, hydrogeologic, and anthropogenic data were used to develop both maps. Land use, precipitation, soil hydrologic group, and well depth were significantly related with atrazine/desethyl-atrazine detections. Depth to water, land use, and soil drainage were signifi- cantly related with elevated nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations. The differences between atrazine/desethyl-atrazine and nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen relations were attributed to differences in chemical behavior of these compounds in the environment and possibly to differences in the extent of use and rates of their application.

Idaho↗
USGS1982

Projected effects of proposed salinity-control projects on shallow ground water; preliminary results for the upper Brazos River basin, Texas

As part of the plan to control the natural salt pollution in the upper Brazos River basin of Texas, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers recommended construction of three impoundment and retention reservoirs. In connection with the proposed reservoirs, the U.S. Geological Survey was requested to define the existing ground-water conditions in the shallow ground-water system of the area and to project the post-construction effects of the reservoirs on the shallow aquifer, especially in relation to aquifer-head changes but also with respect to possible changes in the chemical quality of the ground water. The Corps of Engineers' plan includes a total impoundment reservoir (Kiowa Peak Lake on North Croton Creek) with more than 170,000 acre-feet of storage at the 100-year average pool altitude of 1,550 feet. Croton Lake (23,000 acrefeet of storage at the 100-year average pool altitude of 1,760 feet) on Croton Creek and Dove Lake (no permanent storage) on Salt Croton Creek are projected to hold salt water for transfer to the large Kiowa Peak Lake. The aquifer in the project area is a shallow water-table system with relatively fresh water (calcium sulfate type), in comparison to the saline streamflow, and contains 2,000 to 5,000 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids. The aquifer consists of Permian rocks with very small permeability and is separated from an even less perneable and deeper brine system (sodium chloride type of up to 200,000 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids) by a thin transition zone. Small quantities of infiltration from precipitation in the drainage area constitute the recharge to the aquifer. Discharge from the aquifer consists of the base flow along creeks; well discharge is negligible. Two-dimensional digital-computer models were developed for aquifer simulation of steady and transient conditions in which the density effects of salt water are considered. The models were used to project the effects of the 100- year impoundment of salt water in Kiowa Peak Lake and Croton Lake on the freshwater system. Rises in aquifer head of 10 to 50 feet are projected only for areas near each dan and along each lake shoreline. The maximum migration of salt water downstream from each dam is projected to be about 1 mile. The modeling efforts in this study did not include the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion nor consideration of possible changes in the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer due to physical and chemical interactions in the salt-water and fresh-water environments.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Estimation of regional flow-duration curves for Indiana and Illinois

Flow-duration curves (FDCs) of daily streamflow are useful for many applications in water resources planning and management but must be estimated at ungaged sites. One common technique for estimating FDCs at ungaged sites in a given region is to use equations obtained by linear regression of FDC quantiles against multiple basin characteristics that can be computed by means of a geographic information system (GIS) computer program. In this study, such regional regression equations for estimating FDC quantiles were computed at the 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 75, 80, 90, 95, 98, 99, 99.5, 99.8, and 99.9-percent exceedance probabilities for rural, unregulated streams in Indiana and Illinois with temporally stationary records, using data through September 30, 2007. The approach used accounts for censored values below 0.01 cubic feet per second, which are observed at exceedance probabilities as low as 70 percent (that is, occurring at least 30 percent of the time). The basin characteristics used are suitable for computation by the USGS Web-based application, StreamStats, and are available for all U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region V states and the larger Great Lakes area, with some specific local exceptions. Indiana and Illinois were each divided into three regions, and a different set of equations for estimating FDC quantiles was computed for each region. The error of estimation of the FDC quantiles, measured as the mean square residual in log space converted to a percentage of the quantile, varies somewhat among regions and varies strongly with exceedance probability, with a minimum error of 10 to 20 percent at an exceedance probability of 5 or 10 percent, but rises to 17 to 38 percent at the high-flow end of the FDCs (the 0.1-percent quantile) and 100 to 745 percent at the low-flow end. For comparison, errors of estimation also were computed for FDC quantiles estimated by linear regression on drainage area alone and by using the drainage-area ratio (DAR) method. Three criteria, the nearest basin centroid and two others termed “strict” and “broad”, were used to select index stations for the DAR method. The “strict” and “broad” criteria put conditions on the basin centroid distance and the range of their drainage-area ratios, and the errors were averaged for all index station pairs satisfying each criterion. The use of the simpler DAR method usually resulted in higher errors of estimation compared to the linear regression equations with multiple basin characteristics, except occasionally in the case of the DAR method with the strict index station selection criterion, a criterion that is rarely possible to satisfy in practice. An example application of the estimated equations to one gaged and a few ungaged locations in a watershed in the study area is included to illustrate the steps required. These steps are the computation of the basin characteristics and, using those characteristics together with the estimated equations, the computation of the FDC quantiles and their uncertainties.

Illinois, Indiana↗
USGS2021

Regression relations and long-term water-quality constituent concentrations, loads, yields, and trends in the North Fork Ninnescah River, south-central Kansas, 1999–2019

Cheney Reservoir, in south-central Kansas, is the primary water supply for the city of Wichita, Kansas. The North Fork Ninnescah River is the largest tributary to Cheney Reservoir and contributes about 70 percent of the inflow. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Wichita, has been continuously monitoring water quality (including water temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity) on the North Fork Ninnescah River upstream from Cheney Reservoir (U.S. Geological Survey site 07144780) since November 1998. Continued data collection would be beneficial to update and describe changing water-quality conditions in the drainage basin and in the reservoir over time. Regression models were developed to describe relations between discretely measured constituent concentrations and continuously measured physical properties. The models updated in this report include total suspended solids (TSS), suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), nitrate plus nitrite, nitrate, orthophosphate (OP), total phosphorus (TP), and total organic carbon (TOC). Daily computed concentrations for TSS, TP, and nitrate plus nitrite during 1999–2019 were compared with Cheney Reservoir Task Force (CRTF) goals for base-flow and runoff conditions. CRTF goals for base-flow concentrations were exceeded more frequently (70 to 99.9 percent of the time) than runoff goals (0 to 11 percent of the time). Except for 2012, annual mean TSS concentrations exceeded the base-flow goal every year. Nitrate plus nitrite and TP annual mean concentrations exceeded the base-flow goals every year. TSS and nitrate plus nitrite annual mean concentrations during runoff conditions never exceeded the CRTF runoff goal. TP annual mean concentrations during runoff conditions only exceeded the CRTF runoff goal during 2002. Sedimentation is progressively reducing the storage capacity of Cheney Reservoir. During 1999–2019, 55 percent of the computed suspended-sediment load was transported during the top 1 percent of loading days (76 days); 22 percent of the total load was transported in the top 10 loading days, indicating that substantial parts of suspended-sediment loads continue to be delivered during disproportionately small periods in Cheney Reservoir. Successful sediment management efforts necessitate reduction techniques that account for these large load events. Flow-normalized concentrations and fluxes were computed during 1999 through 2019 using Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) statistical models and WRTDS bootstrap tests. Flow-normalized concentrations of TSS, SSC, OP, TP, and TOC had upward trend probabilities; conversely, nitrate plus nitrite had a downward trend. Flow-normalized fluxes for OP, TP, and TOC had an upward trend. No discernible patterns were identified for flow-normalized flux of TSS or suspended sediment. Nitrate plus nitrite flow-normalized flux indicated a downward trend. Flow-normalized concentrations for TSS were less than the CRTF long-term goal of 100 milligrams per liter (mg/L), but the upward trend indicated the long-term goal may be exceeded if no changes are made. Flow-normalized TP concentrations exceeded the CRTF long-term goal (0.1 mg/L) and were assigned a very likely upward trend. Flow-normalized nitrate plus nitrite concentrations exceeded the CRTF long-term goal of 1.2 mg/L during the beginning of the study period, then were less than the CRTF goal for the remainder of the study; however, during 2010–19 flow-normalized concentrations increased by 6 percent. Linking water-quality changes to causal factors requires consistent monitoring before, during, and after changes; this presents challenges related to length and frequency of data collection and available concomitant land-use and conservation practice data. As such, attribution of water-quality trends to land-use changes or conservation practices was not possible for this study because of a lack of land-use and conservation practice data. Additionally, because precipitation frequency and intensity are projected to continue to increase in the Great Plains region, accounting for extreme episodic events may be an important consideration in future sediment and nutrient load reduction plans.

Kansas↗
USGS2010

Changes in streamflow and the flux of nutrients in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin, USA, 1980-2007

Nutrients and freshwater delivered by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers drive algal production in the northern Gulf of Mexico, which eventually results in the widespread occurrence of hypoxic bottom waters along the Louisiana and Texas coast. Researchers have demonstrated a relation between the extent of the hypoxic zone and the magnitude of streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and nutrient concentrations in the Mississippi River, with springtime streamflows and fluxes being the most predictive. In 1999 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the flux of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica at selected sites in the Mississippi Basin and to the Gulf of Mexico for 1980-1996. These flux estimates provided the baseline information used by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force to develop an Action Plan for reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The primary goal of the Action Plan was to achieve a reduction in the size (areal extent) of the hypoxic zone from an average of approximately 14,000 square kilometers in 1996-2000 to a 5-year moving average of less than 5,000 square kilometers by 2015. Improved statistical models and adjusted maximum likelihood estimation using USGS Load Estimator (LOADEST) software were used to estimate annual and seasonal nutrient fluxes for 1980-2007 at selected sites on the Mississippi River and its tributaries. These data provide a means to evaluate the influence of natural and anthropogenic effects on delivery of water and nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico; to define subbasins that are the most important contributors of nutrients to the gulf; and to investigate the relations among streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and the size and duration of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. A comparative analysis between the baseline period of 1980-1996 and 5-year moving averages thereafter indicate that the average annual streamflow and fluxes of total nitrogen, nitrate, orthophosphate, and silica to the Gulf of Mexico have decreased. However, the flux of total phosphorus between the baseline period and subsequent 5-year periods has increased. The average spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and fluxes of silica, total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphate to the Gulf of Mexico also decreased, whereas the spring flux of total phosphorus has increased. Similar changes in streamflow and nutrient flux were observed at many sites Buxtonwithin the basin. The inputs of water, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus from the major subbasins of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin as a percentage of the to-the-gulf totals have increased from the Ohio River Basin, decreased from the Missouri River Basin, and remained relatively unchanged from the Upper Mississippi, Red, and Arkansas River Basins. Changes in streamflow and nutrient fluxes are related, but short-term variations in sources of streamflow and nutrients complicate the interpretation of factors that affect nutrient delivery to the Gulf of Mexico. Parametric time-series models are used to try and separate natural variability in nutrient flux from changes due to other causes. Results indicate that the decrease in annual nutrient fluxes that has occurred between the 1980-1996 baseline period and more recent years can be largely attributed to natural causes (climate and streamflow) and not management actions or other human controlled activities in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin. The downward trends in total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, and orthophosphate that were detected at either the Mississippi River near St. Francisville, La., or the Atchafalaya River at Melville, La., occurred prior to 1995. In spite of the general decrease in nutrient flux, the average size of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone has increased between 1997 and 2007. The reasons for this are not clear but could be due to the type or nature of nutrient delivery. Whereas the annual flux of total nitrogen to the Gulf of Mexico has decreased, the proporti

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2014

Methow River Studies, Washington: abundance estimates from Beaver Creek and the Chewuch River screw trap, methodology testing in the Whitefish Island side channel, and survival and detection estimates from hatchery fish releases, 2013

Salmon and steelhead populations have been severely depleted in the Columbia River from factors such as the presence of tributary dams, unscreened irrigation diversions, and habitat degradation from logging, mining, grazing, and others (Raymond, 1988). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been funded by the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to provide evaluation of on-going Reclamation funded efforts to recover Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed anadromous salmonid populations in the Methow River watershed, a watershed of the Columbia River in the Upper Columbia River Basin, in north-central Washington State (fig. 1). This monitoring and evaluation program was funded to document Reclamation’s effort to partially fulfill the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion (BiOp) (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Fisheries Division 2003). This Biological Opinion includes Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPA) to protect listed salmon and steelhead across their life cycle. Species of concern in the Methow River include Upper Columbia River (UCR) spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), UCR summer steelhead ( O. mykiss ), and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ), which are all listed as threatened or endangered under the ESA. The work done by the USGS since 2004 has encompassed three phases of work. The first phase started in 2004 and continued through 2012. This first phase involved the evaluation of stream colonization and fish production in Beaver Creek following the modification of several water diversions (2000–2006) that were acting as barriers to upstream fish movement. Products to date from this work include: Ruttenburg (2007), Connolly and others (2008), Martens and Connolly (2008), Connolly (2010), Connolly and others (2010), Martens and Connolly (2010), Benjamin and others (2012), Romine and others (2013a), Weigel and others (2013a, 2013b, 2013c), and Martens and others (2014). The second phase, initiated in 2008, focuses on the evaluation of the M2 reach (rkm 66– 80) of the mainstem Methow River prior to restoration actions planned by Reclamation and Yakama Nation. The M2 study was designed to help understand the inter-relationships between stream habitat and the life history of various fish species to explain potential success or limitations in response to restoration actions. To help document changes derived by restoration, two reference reaches (Upper Methow between rkm 85 and 90, and Chewuch River between rkm 4 and 11) were identified based on relative lack of disturbance, proximity to the restoration reach, and relative unconfined geomorphology. A control reach (Lower Methow between rkm 57 and 64, also referred to as “Silver Reach”) was 2 identified based on its similar disturbance as the reference reach, proximity to the restoration reach, and relatively unconfined geomorphology. Products to date include Barber and others (2011), Bellmore (2011), Tibbits and others (2012), Bellmore and others (2013), Benjamin and others (2013), Romine and others (2013b), Bellmore and other (2014), Martens and others (2014), and Martens and Connolly (2014). The third phase of work has been to help with the development and to provide data for modeling efforts. Most of the planned M2 reach restoration is focused on the creation or improvement of offchannel habitat, especially side channels. The pre-restoration portion of this study has been documented by Martens and Connolly (2014). Side channel restoration actions were initiated in 2012 (Whitefish Island side channel, also referred to as SC3; rkm 76) and are planned to continue over the next several years. The Whitefish Island side channel was modified to maintain hydrological connection with the mainstem throughout the year. In addition, several log structures were installed and pools were deepened to create fish habitat. Prior to restoration, this side channel would lose hydrological connection with the mainstem Methow River, leaving one large pool near the bottom of the side channel and several shallow isolated pools that may or may not go dry. In seasonally connected side channels, juvenile salmonid survival in pools less than 100 cm average depth was lower than in pools greater than 100 cm average depth (Martens and Connolly, 2014). In this report, we document our field work and analysis completed in 2013. During 2013, USGS sampling efforts were focused on resampling of three reaches in Beaver Creek, testing methodology in the Whitefish Island side channel, conducting hatchery survival estimates, and operating a screw trap on the Chewuch River (funded by Yakama Nation; fig. 1). The Beaver Creek sampling effort was a revisit of three index sites sampled continuously from 2004 to 2007 to look at the fish response to barrier removal. Methodology testing in Whitefish Island side channel was done to determine the best method for evaluating fish populations after restoration efforts in side channels (previous sampling methods were determined to be ineffective after pools were deepened). Hatchery survival estimates were completed to monitor fish survival in the Methow and Columbia Rivers, while the screw trap was operated to estimate migrating fish populations in the Chewuch River and track passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagged fish. In addition, we maintained a network of PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTIS), assisted Reclamation with fish removal events associated with stream restoration (two people for 9 days; 14 percent of summer field season), and conducted a stream metabolism study designed to help parameterize and calibrate the stream productivity model (Bellmore and others, 2014) with model validation.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Invasive species in southern Nevada

Southern Nevada contains a wide range of topographies, elevations, and climactic zones emblematic of its position at the ecotone between the Mojave Desert, Great Basin, and Colorado Plateau ecoregions. These varied environmental conditions support a high degree of biological diversity (Chapter 1), but they also provide opportunities for a wide range of invasive species. In addition, the population center of the Las Vegas valley, and the agricultural area scattered throughout Clark, Lincoln, and Nye counties, all connected by a network of roads and highways, plus ephemeral and perennial watercourses, provide abundant opportunities for new invaders to be transported into and within southern Nevada (Brooks 2009; Brookes and Lair 2009). Invasive species are a concern for land managers because they can compete directly with native species (Brooks 2000; Chambers and others 2007; DeFlaco and others 2003, 2007; Mazzola and others 2010), change habitat conditions (Brooks and Esque 2002; Esque and others 2010; Miller and others 2011), and alter ecosystems properties (Brooks and Matchett 2006; Brooks and Pyke 2001; Evans and others 2001). Many invasive species have already established and spread to the point that they are now considered to pose significant problems in southern Nevada. However, there are likely many more than have wither not been transported to or colonized the region, or have established by for various reasons not spread or increased in abundance to the point where they have a significant impact. Land managers must understand both current and potential future problems posed by invasive species to appropriately prioritize management actions. This chapter addressed Sub-goal 1.2 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy (table 1.3; Turner and others 2009), which is to protect southern Nevada's ecosystems from the adverse impacts of invasive species. It provides a brief overview of the key concepts associated with the ecology and management of invasive species, and includes information relevant to all five strategic goals identified by the National Invasive Species Council: prevention, early detection and rapid response, control and management, restoration, and organization collaboration (National Invasive Species Council 2001, 2008). Restoration also is discussed in a broader context in Chapter 5 and 7. This chapter does not present a comprehensive review of all invasive species associated land management issues in southern Nevada, but rather uses key species of concern to illustrate invasion ecology concepts and management strategies. It is focused on terrestrial and aquatic plants and animals, and does not address potential invasive taxa from the other Kingdoms. The information presented herein is intended to provide a foundation upon which land management plans can be developed and project-level decisions can be made relative to the management of invasive species in southern Nevada.

Nevada↗
USGS2018

Effects of groundwater withdrawals from the Hurricane Fault zone on discharge of saline water from Pah Tempe Springs, Washington County, Utah

Pah Tempe Springs, located in Washington County, Utah, contribute about 95,000 tons of dissolved solids annually along a 1,500-foot gaining reach of the Virgin River. The river gains more than 10 cubic feet per second along the reach as thermal, saline springwater discharges from dozens of orifices located along the riverbed and above the river on both banks. The spring complex discharges from fractured Permian Toroweap Limestone where the river crosses the north-south trending Hurricane Fault. The Bureau of Reclamation Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program is evaluating the feasibility of capturing and desalinizing the discharge of Pah Tempe Springs to improve downstream water quality in the Virgin River. The most viable plan, identified by the Bureau of Reclamation in early studies, is to capture spring discharge by pumping thermal groundwater from within the Hurricane Fault footwall damage zone and to treat this water prior to returning it to the river. Three multiple-day interference tests were conducted between November 2013 and November 2014, wherein thermal groundwater was pumped from fractured carbonate rock in the fault damage zone at rates of up to 7 cubic feet per second. Pumping periods for these tests lasted approximately 66, 74, and 67 hours, respectively, and the tests occurred with controlled streamflows of approximately 2.0, 3.5, and 24.5 cubic feet per second, respectively, in the Virgin River upstream from the springs reach. Specific conductance, water temperature, and discharge were monitored continuously in the river (upstream and downstream of the springs reach) at selected individual springs, and in the pumping discharge during each of the tests. Water levels were monitored in three observation wells screened in the thermal system. Periodic stream and groundwater samples were analyzed for dissolved-solids concentration and the stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen. Additional discrete measurements of field parameters (specific conductance, water temperature, pH, and discharge) were made at up to 26 sites along the springs reach. These data demonstrate the interaction between the saline, thermal groundwater system and the Virgin River, and provide estimates of reductions in dissolved-solids loads to the river. The interference tests show that pumping thermal groundwater from the shallow carbonate aquifer adjacent to the springs is effective at capturing high dissolved-solids loads discharging from Pah Tempe Springs before they enter the Virgin River. Discharge measurements made in the Virgin River downstream of the springs reach show that streamflow is reduced by approximately the amount pumped, indicating that complete capture of thermal discharge is possible. During the February 2014 test, the dissolved-solids load removed by pumping (190 tons per day) was approximately equal to the dissolved-solids load reduction observed in the river below the springs reach, indicating near 100-percent efficient capture of spring-sourced dissolved solids. However, an observed decrease in temperature and specific conductance of the pumping discharge during the high-flow test in November 2014 showed that capture of the cool, fresh river water can occur and is more likely at a higher stage in the Virgin River.

Utah↗
USGS2003

Geochemistry of the Birch Creek Drainage Basin, Idaho

The U.S. Survey and Idaho State University, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, are conducting studies to describe the chemical character of ground water that moves as underflow from drainage basins into the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer (ESRPA) system at and near the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) and the effects of these recharge waters on the geochemistry of the ESRPA system. Each of these recharge waters has a hydrochemical character related to geochemical processes, especially water-rock interactions, that occur during migration to the ESRPA. Results of these studies will benefit ongoing and planned geochemical modeling of the ESRPA at the INEEL by providing model input on the hydrochemical character of water from each drainage basin. During 2000, water samples were collected from five wells and one surface-water site in the Birch Creek drainage basin and analyzed for selected inorganic constituents, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, tritium, measurements of gross alpha and beta radioactivity, and stable isotopes. Four duplicate samples also were collected for quality assurance. Results, which include analyses of samples previously collected from four other sites, in the basin, show that most water from the Birch Creek drainage basin has a calcium-magnesium bicarbonate character. The Birch Creek Valley can be divided roughly into three hydrologic areas. In the northern part, ground water is forced to the surface by a basalt barrier and the sampling sites were either surface water or shallow wells. Water chemistry in this area was characterized by simple evaporation models, simple calcite-carbon dioxide models, or complex models involving carbonate and silicate minerals. The central part of the valley is filled by sedimentary material and the sampling sites were wells that are deeper than those in the northern part. Water chemistry in this area was characterized by simple calcite-dolomite-carbon dioxide models. In the southern part, ground water enters the ESRPA. In this area, the sampling sites were wells with depths and water levels much deeper than those in the northern and central parts of the valley. The calcium and carbon water chemistry in this area was characterized by a simple calcite-carbon dioxide model, but complex calcite-silicate models more accurately accounted for mass transfer in these areas. Throughout the geochemical system, calcite precipitated if it was an active phase in the models. Carbon dioxide either precipitated (outgassed) or dissolved depending on the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in water from the modeled sites. Dolomite was an active phase only in models from the central part of the system. Generally the entire geochemical system could be modeled with either evaporative models, carbonate models, or carbonate-silicate models. In both of the latter types of models, a significant amount of calcite precipitated relative to the mass transfer to and from the other active phases. The amount of calcite precipitated in the more complex models was consistent with the amount of calcite precipitated in the simpler models. This consistency suggests that, although the simpler models can predict calcium and carbon concentrations in Birch Creek Valley ground and surface water, silicate-mineral-based models are required to account for the other constituents. The amount of mass transfer to and from the silicate mineral phases was generally small compared with that in the carbonate phases. It appears that the water chemistry of well USGS 126B represents the chemistry of water recharging the ESRPA by means of underflow from the Birch Creek Valley.

Idaho↗
USGS2008

Simulated Effects of Year 2030 Water-Use and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow near the Interstate-495 Corridor, Assabet and Upper Charles River Basins, Eastern Massachusetts

Continued population growth and land development for commercial, industrial, and residential uses have created concerns regarding the future supply of potable water and the quantity of ground water discharging to streams in the area of Interstate 495 in eastern Massachusetts. Two ground-water models developed in 2002-2004 for the Assabet and Upper Charles River Basins were used to simulate water supply and land-use scenarios relevant for the entire Interstate-495 corridor. Future population growth, water demands, and commercial and residential growth were projected for year 2030 by the Metropolitan Area Planning Council. To assess the effects of future development on subbasin streamflows, seven scenarios were simulated by using existing computer-based ground-water-flow models with the data projected for year 2030. The scenarios incorporate three categories of projected 2030 water- and land-use data: (1) 2030 water use, (2) 2030 land use, and (3) a combination of 2030 water use and 2030 land use. Hydrologic, land-use, and water-use data from 1997 through 2001 for the Assabet River Basin study and 1989 through 1998 for the Upper Charles River Basin study were used to represent current conditions - referred to as 'basecase' conditions - in each basin to which each 2030 scenario was compared. The effects of projected 2030 land- and water-use change on streamflows in the Assabet River Basin depended upon the time of year, the hydrologic position of the subbasin in the larger basin, and the relative areas of new commercial and residential development projected for a subbasin. Effects of water use and land use on streamflow were evaluated by comparing average monthly nonstorm streamflow (base flow) for March and September simulated by using the models. The greatest decreases in streamflow (up to 76 percent in one subbasin), compared to the basecase, occurred in September, when streamflows are naturally at their lowest level. By contrast, simulated March streamflows decreased less than 6.5 percent from basecase streamflows in all subbasins for all scenarios. The simulations showed similar effects in the Upper Charles River Basin, but increased water use contributed to decreased simulated streamflow in most subbasins. Simulated changes in March streamflows for 2030 in the Upper Charles River Basin were within +- 6 percent of the basecase for all scenarios and subbasins. Percentage decreases in simulated September streamflows for 2030 were greater than in March but less than the September decreases that resulted for some subbasins in the Assabet River Basin. Only two subbasins of the Upper Charles River Basin had projected decreases greater than 5 percent. In the Mill River subbasin, the decrease was 11 percent, and in the Mine Brook subbasin, 6.6 percent. Changes in water use and wastewater return flow generally were found to have the greatest effect in the summer months when streamflow and aquifer recharge rates are low and water use is high. September increases in main-stem streamflow of both basins were due mainly to increased discharge of treated effluent from wastewater-treatment facilities on the main-stem rivers. In the Assabet River Basin, wastewater-treatment-facility discharge became a smaller proportion of total streamflow with distance downstream. In contrast, wastewater-treatment facility discharge in the Upper Charles River Basin became a greater proportion of streamflow with distance downstream. The effects of sewer-line extension and low-impact development on streamflows in two different subbasins of the Assabet River Basin also were simulated. The result of extending sewer lines with a corresponding decrease in septic-system return flow caused September streamflows to decrease as much as 15 percent in the Fort Pond Brook subbasin. The effect of low-impact development was simulated in the Hop Brook subbasin in areas projected for commercial development. In this simulation, the greater the area where low-i

Scientific Investigations Report↗