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Summary of the history and research of the U.S. Geological Survey gas hydrate properties laboratory in Menlo Park, California, active from 1993 to 2022

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Clathrate Hydrate Properties Project, active from 1993 to 2022 in Menlo Park, California, stemmed from an earlier project on the properties of planetary ices supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program. We took a material science approach in both projects, emphasizing chemical purity of samples, having controlled grain size and grain texture, and having verified crystal structures and phase relations. A foundational contribution from our USGS Gas Hydrate Properties Laboratory (GHPL) was in demonstrating the ability to reproducibly create such pure clathrate hydrate samples for study. Clathrate sample synthesis was achieved by heating sieved and weighed pure granular water ice in the presence of cold clathrate-forming gas or liquid. During heating, the ice melts at the grain scale and reacts with the gas to form clathrate. The resulting material has the desired uniformity and purity, with known intergranular porosity; our subsequent measurements showed that these clathrates exhibited the established clathrate structures and phase relations. This novel synthesis method was successful in creating clathrates of pure methane, ethane, propane, carbon dioxide, and multi-component gases. By mixing sand or silt with granular ice, we were also able to make clathrate-sediment aggregates with controlled grain textures. This simple method, adopted by many others in the community, permitted us to measure the physical and chemical properties of well-characterized and well-crystallized clathrates and clathrate/sediment aggregates. At about the same time, we adapted conventional scanning electron microscopy to cryogenic conditions for analysis of grain-scale characteristics of clathrates made in the GHPL as well as those collected from nature by drill core. The uniformity and reproducibility of our samples also allowed us to investigate how clathrates respond to environmental changes in chemistry, temperature, and pressure: we measured chemical exchange rates with dissolved gas species—such as noble gases and chlorofluorocarbons—as well as rates of clathrate dissolution and decomposition. These advances include the first accurate mapping of the conditions that promote the remarkable process of “anomalous preservation” at room pressure, a metastability that offers potential application for low-cost and safe transportation of natural gas from gas fields far from pipelines. Another advancement stemming from the GHPL was the compaction of as-synthesized porous clathrates to nearly full density by applying external pressure using three different techniques. Compaction allows for high-accuracy measurements of many fundamental physical and chemical properties of these materials, such as elastic wavespeeds and moduli, complete thermal properties, decomposition rates, thermal expansion, and clathrate equations of state. These properties and others, in turn, have helped USGS scientists to interpret geophysical well logs and active geophysical surveys, as well as model the rates of gas production from hydrate deposits in nature. Studying this class of icy minerals that occur in abundance on Earth and in the outer solar system has been a fascinating laboratory journey. Here, we summarize the history and major findings of the USGS GHPL in Menlo Park, including both in-house research as well as findings from the synergistic collaborations with other agencies and institutes that were key to the success of our laboratory. The Menlo Park GHPL was more formally incorporated within the USGS Gas Hydrates Project, a collaboration among multiple USGS Science Centers, in the early 2000s under the leadership of Deborah Hutchinson, and now under the leadership of Carolyn Ruppel and Timothy Collett.

Open-File Report↗

Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector

Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we utilize a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007-2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. Importantly, this supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions.

Science Advances↗

Fine-grained temporal population monitoring of a declining, critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper

Annual point counts are commonly used to monitor birds to track population densities across space and time. Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) are surveyed annually in the first quarter, but we recently instituted quarterly sampling that offers a unique opportunity to improve estimator precision. We conducted point-transect distance sampling point counts during the first quarter of 2020 through 2024, and the second through fourth quarters in 2022 and 2023, and the second quarter in 2024. The reduced sampling intensity during the quarterly counts, however, requires model-based methods to estimate abundance to the entire sampling frame. We modeled spatial and temporal correlation using a soap film smoother within a generalized additive modeling framework, a density surface model, fitted to palila counts each quarter for the five-year timeseries to track changes in population abundances. Our results indicate that palila maintained a high-density hotspot throughout the five-year timeseries; however, the extent of the hotspot declined substantially over the timeseries while densities within the hotspot declined from about 3 birds/ha in 2020 to about 1 bird/ha in 2024, which resulted in a 66% decline in palila abundances over 5 years. Density surface model estimates give on average a confidence interval width that was 74.7% shorter than the associated distance sampling confidence interval widths. Our results indicate that palila may benefit most if management actions were applied within the remaining hotspot. Additionally, this temporally fine-grained sampling provides information on seasonal movement patterns and resource tracking, and population response to management and conservation actions. Our spatially explicit, model-based approach is applicable to a wide range of monitoring programs, particularly those with inconsistent, opportunistic spatial coverage.

Hawaii↗

Prioritizing conservation potential of arid-land montane natural springs and associated riparian areas

Using inventory data and input from natural resource professionals, we developed a classification system that categorizes conservation potential for montane natural springs. This system contains 18 classes based on the presence of a riparian patch, wetland species, surface water, and evidence of human activity. We measured physical and biological components of 276 montane springs in the Oscura Mountains above 1450 m and the San Andres Mountains above 1300 m in southern New Mexico. Two of the 18 classes were not represented during the inventory, indicating the system applies to conditions beyond the montane springs in our study area. The class type observed most often (73 springs) had a riparian patch, perennial surface water, and human evidence. We assessed our system in relation to 13 other wetland and riparian classification systems regarding approach, area of applicability, intended users, validation, ease of use, and examination of system response. Our classification can be used to rapidly assess priority of conservation potential for isolated riparian sites, especially springs, in arid landscapes. We recommend (1) including this classification in conservation planning, (2) removing deleterious structures from high-priority sites, and (3) assessing efficiency and use of this classification scheme elsewhere. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

Use of colloid filtration theory in modeling movement of bacteria through a contaminated sandy aquifer

\A filtration model commonly used to describe removal of colloids during packed-bed filtration in water treatment applications was modified for describing downgradient transport of bacteria in sandy, aquifer sediments. The modified model was applied to the results of a small-scale (7 m), natural-gradient tracer test and to observations of an indigenous bacterial population moving downgradient within a plume of organically contaminated groundwater in Cape Cod, MA. The model reasonably accounted for concentration histories of labeled bacteria appearing at samplers downgradient from the injection well in the tracer experiment and for the observed 0.25-μm increase in average cell length for an unlabeled, indigenous bacterial population, 0.6 km downgradient from the source of the plume. Several uncertainties were apparent in applying filtration theory to problems involving transport of bacteria in groundwater. However, adsorption (attachment) appeared to be a major control of the extent of bacterial movement downgradient, which could be described, in part, by filtration theory. Estimates of the collision efficiency factor, which represents the physicochemical factors that determine adsorption of the bacteria onto the grain surfaces, ranged from 5.4 x 10 -3 to 9.7 x 10 -3 .

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Mechanisms driving recruitment variability in fish: comparisons between the Laurentian Great Lakes and marine systems

In his seminal work, Hjort (in Fluctuations in the great fisheries of Northern Europe. Conseil Parmanent International Pour L'Exploration De La Mar. Rapports et Proces-Verbaux, 20: 1–228, 1914) observed that fish population levels fluctuated widely, year-class strength was set early in life, and egg production by adults could not alone explain variability in year-class strength. These observations laid the foundation for hypotheses on mechanisms driving recruitment variability in marine systems. More recently, researchers have sought to explain year-class strength of important fish in the Laurentian Great Lakes and some of the hypotheses developed for marine fisheries have been transferred to Great Lakes fish. We conducted a literature review to determine the applicability of marine recruitment hypotheses to Great Lakes fish. We found that temperature, interspecific interactions, and spawner effects (abundance, age, and condition of adults) were the most important factors in explaining recruitment variability in Great Lakes fish, whereas relatively fewer studies identified bottom-up trophodynamic factors or hydrodynamic factors as important. Next, we compared recruitment between Great Lakes and Baltic Sea fish populations and found no statistical difference in factors driving recruitment between the two systems, indicating that recruitment hypotheses may often be transferable between Great Lakes and marine systems. Many recruitment hypotheses developed for marine fish have yet to be applied to Great Lakes fish. We suggest that future research on recruitment in the Great Lakes should focus on forecasting the effects of climate change and invasive species. Further, because the Great Lakes are smaller and more enclosed than marine systems, and have abundant fishery-independent data, they are excellent candidates for future hypothesis testing on recruitment in fish.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

A geospatial knowledge graph prototype for national topographic mapping

Knowledge graphs are a form of database representation and handling that show the potential to better meet the challenges of data interoperability, semi-automated information reasoning, and information retrieval. Geospatial knowledge graphs (GKG) have at their core specialized forms of applied ontology that provide coherent spatial context to a domain of information including non-spatial attributes. This paper discusses research toward the development of a prototype GKG based on national topographic databases of geospatial feature instances, attributes, properties, metadata, and annotations. The challenges are to capture and represent geographic semantics inherent in the source data, to align such graph models with standards where possible, to test logical computations, and to visualize the data using a cartographic user interface. Data integration from outside sources was tested through SPARQL and GeoSPARQL queries. Called the MapKB, the approaches applied in this prototype use a number of software components to build a system architecture aligned with those objectives and are composed entirely of free and open-source software. The system and ontology design were validated through reasoning and competency questions. Technical aspects of the prototype software succeeded, but customization was found to be needed for user-based design.

International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remo↗

Prevalence of seismic rate anomalies preceding volcanic eruptions in Alaska

Seismic rate increases often precede eruptions at volcanoes worldwide. However, many eruptions occur without such precursors. Additionally, identifying seismic rate increases near volcanoes with high levels of background seismicity is non-trivial and many periods of elevated seismicity occur without ensuing eruptions, limiting their usefulness for forecasting in some cases. Although these issues are commonly known, efforts to quantify them are limited. In this study, we consistently apply a common statistical tool, the β-statistic, to seismically monitored eruptions in Alaska of various styles to determine the overall prevalence of seismic rate anomalies immediately preceding eruptions. We find that 6 out of 20 (30%) eruptions have statistically significant precursory seismic rate increases. Of these 6 eruptions, 3 of them occur at volcanoes with relatively felsic compositions, repose periods >15 years, and VEI ≥ 3. Overall, our results confirm that seismic rate increases are common prior to larger eruptions at long dormant, “closed-system” volcanoes, but uncommon preceding smaller eruptions at more frequently active, “open-system” volcanoes with more mafic magmas. We also explore the rate of other anomalies not precursory to eruptions and investigate their origins. Some of these non-eruptive anomalies can be explained by aftershocks of regional seismic events, magmatic activity that did not lead to eruption, or unrest at other nearby volcanoes. Some open-system volcanoes have high non-eruptive anomaly rates and low pre-eruptive anomaly rates and are thus not amenable to forecasting based on earthquake catalogs. In this study, we find that 31% of anomalies lead to eruption. With continued calibration at more volcanoes, the β-statistic that we apply may be used more broadly to analyze future periods of seismic unrest at other volcanoes, properly placing such episodes into the context of the long-term background rate. These results may be useful for informing future eruption forecasts around the world, and the statistical tool may aid volcano observatories in identifying future seismic rate anomalies under changing network conditions.

Alaska↗

Effectiveness of a confinement strategy for reducing campsite impacts in Shenandoah National Park

The expansion and proliferation of backcountry campsites is a persistent problem in many parks and protected areas. Shenandoah National Park (SNP) has one of the highest backcountry overnight use densities in the USA national parks system. SNP managers implemented a multi-option backcountry camping policy in 2000 that included camping containment with established campsites. These actions were intended to reduce the number of campsites and the area of camping disturbance at each site. This paper describes a longitudinal adaptive management assessment of the new campsite policies, applying quantitative measures of campsite conditions to evaluate the efficacy of management interventions. Physical campsite measurements combined with qualitative visitor interviews indicated SNP had successfully reduced the number of campsites and aggregate measures of camping-related disturbance in the Park, while minimizing the use of regulations, site facilities and staff resources. Implications for managers of other protected areas are that an established site camping policy can minimize camping disturbance, including the number and size of campsites, provided managers can sustain rehabilitation efforts to close and restore unneeded campsites. Experiential attributes, such as the potential for solitude, can also be manipulated through control over the selection of established campsites. Integrating resource and social science methods also provided a more holistic perspective on management policy assessments. Adaptive management research provided a timely evaluation of management success while facilitating effective modifications in response to unforeseen challenges. Conclusions regarding the effectiveness of a visitor impact containment strategy involving an established site camping option are offered.

Virginia↗

Geologic studies in Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey, 1996

This collection of 12 papers continues the annual series of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports on geologic investigations in Alaska. The annual volume presents results from new or ongoing studies in Alaska that are of interest to scientists in academia, industry, land and resource managers, and the general public. The Geological Studies in Alaska volume reports the results of studies that cover a broad spectrum of earth science topics from many parts of the state (fig. 1). The papers in this volume are organized under the topics Environment and Climate, Resources, and Geologic Framework, in order to reflect the objectives and scope of USGS programs that are currently active in Alaska. Environmental studies are the focus of two articles in this volume: One study addresses the relation between glaciers and aquatic habitat on the Kenai River and another study evaluates the geochemistry of water draining chromite deposits in Alaska. Two papers address mineral resources in southwestern Alaska including a geochemical study of the Fortyseven Creek prospect and a geological and geochemical study of the Stuyahok area. Eight geologic framework studies apply a variety of techniques to a wide range of subjects throughout Alaska, including biostratigraphy, geochemistry, geochronology, paleomagnetism, sedimentology, and tectonics. Two bibliographies at the end of the volume list reports about Alaska in USGS publications released in 1996 and reports about Alaska by USGS authors in non-USGS publications in 1996.

Alaska↗

Loess studies in central United States: Evolution of concepts

Few words in the realm of earth science have caused more debate than "loess". It is a common term that was first used as a name of a silt deposit before it was defined in a scientific sense. Because this "loose" deposit is easily distinguished from other more coherent deposits, it was recognized as a matter of practical concern and later became the object of much scientific scrutiny. Loess was first recognized along the Rhine Valley in Germany in the 1830s and was first noted in the United States in 1846 along the lower Mississippi River where it later became the center of attention. The use of the name eventually spread around the world, but its use has not been consistently applied. Over the years some interpretations and stratigraphic correlations have been validated, but others have been hotly contested on conceptual grounds and semantic issues. The concept of loess evolved into a complex issue as loess and loess-like deposits were discovered in different parts of the US. The evolution of concepts in the central US developed in four indefinite stages: the eras of (1) discovery and development of hypotheses, (2) conditional acceptance of the eolian origin of loess, (3) "bandwagon" popularity of loess research, and (4) analytical inquiry on the nature of loess. Toward the end of the first era around 1900, the popular opinion on the meaning of the term loess shifted from a lithological sense of loose silt to a lithogenetic sense of eolian silt. However, the dual use of the term fostered a lingering skepticism during the second era that ended in 1944 with an explosion of interest that lasted for more than a decade. In 1944, R.J. Russell proposed and H.N. Fisk defended a new non-eolian, property-based, concept of loess. The eolian advocates reacted with surprise and enthusiasm. Each side used constrained arguments to show their view of the problem, but did not examine the fundamental problem, which was not in the proofs of their hypothesis, but in the definition of the term. Between 1944 and about 1950, the debates about loess reached a maximum level of complexity. The main semantic problem was submersed in peripheral arguments about physical properties and genetic interpretations. The scholarly treatment of the subject by Fisk and Russell stimulated quality responses from a diversity of earth scientists interested in academic and applied studies, particularly geo-history, pedology, soil mechanics and stratigraphy. The long-lasting popularity of loess studies during the bandwagon era lasted to about 1970. By that time, the analytical and technical interests had attracted the mainstream into the fourth era with a focus beyond the old arguments. Although Fisk and Russell found themselves defending an unpopular theory, they stimulated a scientific interest in the late Quaternary history of the Mississippi Valley that may never be exceeded.

Engineering Geology↗

Method for determination of methyl tert-butyl ether and its degradation products in water

An analytical method is described that can detect the major alkyl ether compounds that are used as gasoline oxygenates (methyl tert-butyl ether, MTBE; ethyl tert-butyl ether, ETBE; and tert-amyl methyl ether, TAME) and their most characteristic degradation products (tert-butyl alcohol, TBA; tert-butyl formate, TBF; and tert-amyl alcohol, TAA) in water at sub-ppb concentrations. The new method involves gas chromatography (GC) with direct aqueous injection (DAI) onto a polar column via a splitless injector, coupled with detection by mass spectrometry (MS). DAI-GC/MS gives excellent agreement with conventional purge-and-trap methods for MTBE over a wide range of environmentally relevant concentrations. The new method can also give simultaneous identification of polar compounds that might occur as degradation products of gasoline oxygenates, such as TBA, TBF, TAA, methyl acetate, and acetone. When the method was applied to effluent from a column microcosm prepared with core material from an urban site in New Jersey, conversion of MTBE to TBA was observed after a lag period of 35 days. However, to date, analyses of water samples from six field sites using the DAI-GC/MS method have not produced evidence for the expected products of in situ degradation of MTBE.An analytical method is described that can detect the major alkyl ether compounds that are used as gasoline oxygenates (methyl tert-butyl ether, MTBE; ethyl tert-butyl ether, ETBE; and tert-amyl methyl ether, TAME) and their most characteristic degradation products (tert-butyl alcohol, TBA; tert-butyl formate, TBF; and tert-amyl alcohol, TAA) in water at sub-ppb concentrations. The new method involves gas chromatography (GC) with direct aqueous injection (DAI) onto a polar column via a splitless injector, coupled with detection by mass spectrometry (MS). DAI-GC/MS gives excellent agreement with conventional purge-and-trap methods for MTBE over a wide range of environmentally relevant concentrations. The new method can also give simultaneous identification of polar compounds that might occur as degradation products of gasoline oxygenates, such as TBA, TBF, TAA, methyl acetate, and acetone. When the method was applied to effluent from a column microcosm prepared with core material from an urban site in New Jersey, conversion of MTBE to TBA was observed after a lag period of 35 days. However, to date, analyses of water samples from six field sites using the DAI-GC/MS method have not produced evidence for the expected products of in situ degradation of MTBE.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Vegetative community response to landscape-scale post-fire herbicide (imazapic) application

Disturbances such as wildfire create time-sensitive windows of opportunity for invasive plant treatment, and the timing of herbicide application relative to the time course of plant community development following fire can strongly influence herbicide effectiveness. We evaluated the effect of herbicide (imazapic) applied in the first winter or second fall after the 113,000 ha Soda wildfire on the target exotic annual grasses and also key non-target components of the plant community. We measured responses of exotic and native species cover, species diversity, and occurrence frequency of shrubs and forbs seeded before (1 to 2 or 9 to 10 mo) herbicide application. Additionally, we asked whether landscape factors, including topography, species richness, and/or soil characteristics, influenced the effectiveness of imazapic. Cover of exotic annual grass cover, but not of deep-rooted perennial bunchgrass, was less where imazapic had been applied, whereas more variability was evident in the response of Sandberg bluegrass ( Poa secunda J. Presl) and seeded shrubs and forbs. Regression-tree analysis of the subset of plots measured both before and after the second fall application revealed greater reductions of exotic annual grass cover in places where their cover was <42% before spraying. Otherwise, imazapic effects did not vary with the landscape factors we analyzed.

Invasive Plant Science and Management↗

Lunar surface chemistry: A new imaging technique

Detailed chemical maps of the lunar surface have been constructed by applying a new weighted-filter imaging technique to Apollo 15 and Apollo 16 x-ray fluorescence data. The data quality improvement is amply demonstrated by (i) modes in the frequency distribution, representing highland and mare soil suites, which are not evident before data filtering and (ii) numerous examples of chemical variations which are correlated with small-scale (about 15 kilometer) lunar topographic features.

Science↗

Hydraulic modeling development and application in water resources engineering

The use of modeling has become widespread in water resources engineering and science to study rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal regions. For example, computer models are commonly used to forecast anthropogenic effects on the environment, and to help provide advanced mitigation measures against catastrophic events such as natural and dam-break floods. Linking hydraulic models to vegetation and habitat models has expanded their use in multidisciplinary applications to the riparian corridor. Implementation of these models in software packages on personal desktop computers has made them accessible to the general engineering community, and their use has been popularized by the need of minimal training due to intuitive graphical user interface front ends. Models are, however, complex and nontrivial, to the extent that even common terminology is sometimes ambiguous and often applied incorrectly. In fact, many efforts are currently under way in order to standardize terminology and offer guidelines for good practice, but none has yet reached unanimous acceptance. This chapter provides a view of the elements involved in modeling surface flows for the application in environmental water resources engineering. It presents the concepts and steps necessary for rational model development and use by starting with the exploration of the ideas involved in defining a model. Tangible form of those ideas is provided by the development of a mathematical and corresponding numerical hydraulic model, which is given with a substantial amount of detail. The issues of model deployment in a practical and productive work environment are also addressed. The chapter ends by presenting a few model applications highlighting the need for good quality control in model validation.

Book chapter↗

Structural and functional effects of herbicides on non-target organisms in aquatic ecosystems with an emphasis on atrazine

Herbicide use has increased dramatically around the world over the past 6 decades (Gianessi and Reigner, 2007). Few herbicides were in use in the 1950s. However, by 2001 approximately 1.14 billion kilograms of herbicides were applied globally for the control of undesireable vegetation in agricultural, silvicultural, lawncare, aquacultural, and irrigation/recreational water management activities (Kiely et al., 2004). Twenty-eight percent of the total mass of herbicides is applied in the United States, with the remaining 72 percent being applied elsewhere around the globe (Kiely et al., 2004). Herbicides represent 36% of global pesticide use, followed by insecticides (25%), fungicides (10%) and other chemical classes (Kiely et al., 2004). Agricultural production accounts for approximately 90% of herbicide use in the U.S. (Kiely et al., 2004). Gianessi and Reigner (2007) indicated that herbicides are routinely used on more than 90% of the area designated for large commercial crops including corn, soybeans, cotton, sugar beets, peanuts, and rice. Increased farm mechanization, technological advancements in production of inexpensive sources of inorganic nitrogen fertilizer (e.g., anhydrous ammonia), and conversion of forest, grassland, and wetland habitats to cropland has led to a tremendous increase in global food production over the past half-century. Herbicides have augmented advances in large-scale agricultural systems and have largely replaced mechanical and hand-weeding control mechanisms (Gianessi and Reigner, 2007). The wide-spread use of herbicides in agriculture has resulted in frequent chemical detections in surface and groundwaters (Gilliom, 2007). The majority of herbicides used are highly water soluble and are therefore prone to runoff from terrestrial environments. In additon, spray drift and atmospheric deposition can contribute to herbicide contamination of aquatic environments. Lastly, selected herbicides are deliberately applied to aquatic environments for controlling nuisance aquatic vegetation. Although aquatic herbicide exposure has been widely documented, these exposures are not necessarily related to adverse non-target ecological effects on natural communities in aquatic environments. This chapter evaluates the potential for effects of herbicides on the structure and function of aquatic envrionments at the population, community, and ecosystem levels of biological organization. In this manuscript I examine several critical aspects of the subject matter area: primary herbicides in use and chemical modes of action; the regulatory process used for registration and risk assessment of herbicides; data regarding non-target risks and the relative sensitivity of aquatic plants, inveretebrates, and fish to herbicides; and emerging areas of science regarding the potential for endocrine-disrupting effects of herbicides on aquatic vertebrates. Much of the focus of this paper is on atrazine due to the extensive database which exists regarding its fate and effects.

Book chapter↗

Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered efforts by multiple modeling groups to forecast disease trajectory, assess interventions, and improve understanding of the pathogen. Such models can often differ substantially in their projections and recommendations, reflecting different policy assumptions and objectives, as well as scientific, logistical, and other uncertainty about biological and management processes (1). Disparate predictions during any outbreak can hinder intervention planning and response by policy-makers (2, 3), who may instead choose to rely on single trusted sources of advice, or on consensus where it appears. Thus, valuable insights and information from other models may be overlooked, limiting the opportunity for decision-makers to account for risk and uncertainty and resulting in more lives lost or resources used than necessary. We advocate a more systematic approach, by merging two well-established research fields. The first element involves formal expert elicitation methods applied to multiple models to deliberately generate, retain, and synthesize valuable individual model ideas and share important insights during group discussions, while minimizing various cognitive biases. The second element uses a decision-theoretic framework to capture and account for within- and between-model uncertainty as we evaluate actions in a timely manner to achieve management objectives.

Science↗

Estimation of runoff and sediment yield in the Redrock Creek watershed using AnnAGNPS and GIS

Sediment has been identified as a significant threat to water quality and channel clogging that in turn may lead to river flooding. With the increasing awareness of the impairment from sediment to water bodies in a watershed, identifying the locations of the major sediment sources and reducing the sediment through management practices will be important for an effective watershed management. The annualized agricultural non-point source pollution (AnnAGNPS) model and newly developed GIS interface for it were applied in a small agricultural watershed, Redrock Creek watershed, Kansas, in this pilot study for exploring the effectiveness of using this model as a management tool. The calibrated model appropriately simulated monthly runoff and sediment yield through the practices in this study and potentially suggested the ways of sediment reduction through evaluating the changes of land use and field operation in the model for the purpose of watershed management.

Journal of Environmental Sciences↗