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USGS2025

Shortening migration by 4500 km does not affect nesting phenology or increase nest success for black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) breeding in Arctic and subarctic Alaska

Background Since the 1980s, Pacific Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans , hereafter brant) have shifted their winter distribution northward from Mexico to Alaska (approximately 4500 km) with changes in climate. Alongside this shift, the primary breeding population of brant has declined. To understand the population-level implications of the changing migration strategy of brant, it is important to connect movement and demographic data. Our objectives were to calculate migratory connectivity, a measure of spatial and temporal overlap during the non-breeding period, for Arctic and subarctic breeding populations of brant, and to determine if variation in migration strategies affected nesting phenology and nest survival. Methods We derived a migratory network using light-level geolocator migration tracks from an Arctic site (Colville River Delta) and a subarctic site (Tutakoke River) in Alaska. Using this network, we quantified the migratory connectivity of the two populations during the winter. We also compared nest success rates among brant that used different combinations of winter sites and breeding sites. Results The two breeding populations were well mixed during the winter, as indicated by a migratory connectivity score close to 0 (− 0.06) at the primary wintering sites of Izembek Lagoon, Alaska (n = 11 brant) and Baja California, Mexico (n = 48). However, Arctic birds were more likely to migrate the shorter distance to Izembek (transition probability = 0.24) compared to subarctic birds (transition probability = 0.09). Nest survival for both breeding populations was relatively high (0.88–0.92), and we did not detect an effect of wintering site on nest success the following year. Conclusions Nest survival of brant did not differ among brant that used wintering sites despite a 4500 km difference in migration distances. Our results also suggested that the growing Arctic breeding population is unlikely to compensate for declines in the larger breeding population of brant in the subarctic. However, this study took place in 2011–2014 and wintering at Izembek Lagoon may have greater implications for reproductive success under future climate conditions.

Movement Ecology↗

USGS1961

Correlation of tertiary formations of Alaska

Recent stratigraphic and paleontologic studies have resulted in substantial revision of the age assignments and inter-basin correlations of the Tertiary formations of Alaska as given in both an earlier compilation by P. S. Smith (1939) and a tentative chart prepared for distribution at the First International Symposium on Arctic Geology at Calgary, Alberta (Miller, MacNeil, and Wahrhaftig, 1960). Current work in Alaska by the U. S. Geological Survey and several oil companies is furnishing new information at a rapid rate and further revisions may be expected. The correlation chart (Fig. 1), the first published chart to deal exclusively with the Tertiary of Alaska, had the benefit of a considerable amount of stratigraphic data and fossil collections from some oil companies, but recent surface mapping and drilling by other oil companies in several Tertiary basins undoubtedly must have produced much more information. Nevertheless, the extent of available data justifies the publication of a revised correlation chart at this time.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

High seroprevalence of antibodies to avian influenza viruses among wild waterfowl in Alaska: implications for surveillance

We examined seroprevalence (presence of detectable antibodies in serum) for avian influenza viruses (AIV) among 4,485 birds, from 11 species of wild waterfowl in Alaska (1998–2010), sampled during breeding/molting periods. Seroprevalence varied among species (highest in eiders (Somateria and Polysticta species), and emperor geese (Chen canagica)), ages (adults higher than juveniles), across geographic locations (highest in the Arctic and Alaska Peninsula) and among years in tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus). All seroprevalence rates in excess of 60% were found in marine-dependent species. Seroprevalence was much higher than AIV infection based on rRT-PCR or virus isolation alone. Because pre-existing AIV antibodies can infer some protection against highly pathogenic AIV (HPAI H5N1), our results imply that some wild waterfowl in Alaska could be protected from lethal HPAIV infections. Seroprevalence should be considered in deciphering patterns of exposure, differential infection, and rates of AIV transmission. Our results suggest surveillance programs include species and populations with high AIV seroprevalences, in addition to those with high infection rates. Serologic testing, including examination of serotype-specific antibodies throughout the annual cycle, would help to better assess spatial and temporal patterns of AIV transmission and overall disease dynamics.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

The structure of genetic diversity in eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) along the North Pacific and Bering Sea coasts of Alaska

Eelgrass ( Zostera marina) populations occupying coastal waters of Alaska are separated by a peninsula and island archipelago into two Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs). From populations in both LMEs, we characterize genetic diversity, population structure, and polarity in gene flow using nuclear microsatellite fragment and chloroplast and nuclear sequence data. An inverse relationship between genetic diversity and latitude was observed (heterozygosity: R 2 = 0.738, P < 0.001; allelic richness: R 2 = 0.327, P = 0.047), as was significant genetic partitioning across most sampling sites (θ = 0.302, P < 0.0001). Variance in allele frequency was significantly partitioned by region only in cases when a population geographically in the Gulf of Alaska LME (Kinzarof Lagoon) was instead included with populations in the Eastern Bering Sea LME (θ p = 0.128–0.172; P < 0.003), suggesting gene flow between the two LMEs in this region. Gene flow among locales was rarely symmetrical, with notable exceptions generally following net coastal ocean current direction. Genetic data failed to support recent proposals that multiple Zostera species (i.e. Z . japonica and Z . angustifolia ) are codistributed with Z . marina in Alaska. Comparative analyses also failed to support the hypothesis that eelgrass populations in the North Atlantic derived from eelgrass retained in northeastern Pacific Last Glacial Maximum refugia. These data suggest northeastern Pacific populations are derived from populations expanding northward from temperate populations following climate amelioration at the terminus of the last Pleistocene glaciation.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Maintenance of influenza A viruses and antibody response in mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) sampled during the non-breeding season in Alaska

Prevalence of influenza A virus (IAV) infections in northern-breeding waterfowl has previously been reported to reach an annual peak during late summer or autumn; however, little is known about IAV infection dynamics in waterfowl populations persisting at high-latitude regions such as Alaska, during winter. We captured mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) throughout the non-breeding season (August–April) of 2012–2015 in Fairbanks and Anchorage, the two largest cities in Alaska, to assess patterns of IAV infection and antibody production using molecular methods and a standard serologic assay. In addition, we used virus isolation, genetic sequencing, and a virus microneutralization assay to characterize viral subtypes and to evaluate the immune response of mallards captured on multiple occasions through time. We captured 923 mallards during three successive sampling years: Fairbanks in 2012/13 and 2013/14, and Anchorage in 2014/15. Prevalence varied by age, season, and year/site with high and relatively stable estimates throughout the non-breeding season. Infected birds were detected in all locations/seasons except early-winter in Fairbanks during 2013/14. IAVs with 17 combinations of hemagglutinin (H1–5, H7–9, H11, H12) and neuraminidase (N1–6, N8, N9) subtypes were isolated. Antibodies to IAVs were detected throughout autumn and winter for all sampling locations and years, however, seroprevalence was higher among adults and varied among years. Mallards exhibited individual heterogeneity with regard to immune response, providing instances of both seroconversion and seroreversion to detected viral subtypes. The probability that an individual transitioned from one serostatus to another varied by age, with juvenile mallards having higher rates of seroconversion and seroreversion than adults. Our study provides evidence that a diversity of IAVs circulate in populations of mallards wintering at urban locations in Alaska, and we suggest waterfowl wintering at high-latitudes may play an important role in maintenance of viruses across breeding seasons.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

International migration patterns of Red-throated Loons (Gavia stellata) from four breeding populations in Alaska

Identifying post-breeding migration and wintering distributions of migratory birds is important for understanding factors that may drive population dynamics. Red-throated Loons ( Gavia stellata ) are widely distributed across Alaska and currently have varying population trends, including some populations with recent periods of decline. To investigate population differentiation and the location of migration pathways and wintering areas, which may inform population trend patterns, we used satellite transmitters (n = 32) to describe migration patterns of four geographically separate breeding populations of Red-throated Loons in Alaska. On average (± SD) Red-throated Loons underwent long (6,288 ± 1,825 km) fall and spring migrations predominantly along coastlines. The most northern population (Arctic Coastal Plain) migrated westward to East Asia and traveled approximately 2,000 km farther to wintering sites than the three more southerly populations (Seward Peninsula, Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, and Copper River Delta) which migrated south along the Pacific coast of North America. These migration paths are consistent with the hypothesis that Red-throated Loons from the Arctic Coastal Plain are exposed to contaminants in East Asia. The three more southerly breeding populations demonstrated a chain migration pattern in which the more northerly breeding populations generally wintered in more northerly latitudes. Collectively, the migration paths observed in this study demonstrate that some geographically distinct breeding populations overlap in wintering distribution while others use highly different wintering areas. Red-throated Loon population trends in Alaska may therefore be driven by a wide range of effects throughout the annual cycle.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Influenza A virus recovery, diversity, and intercontinental exchange: A multi-year assessment of wild bird sampling at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska

Western Alaska is a potential point-of-entry for foreign-origin influenza A viruses (IAVs) into North America via migratory birds. We sampled waterfowl and gulls for IAVs at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in western Alaska, USA, during late summer and autumn months of 2011–2015, to evaluate the abundance and diversity of viruses at this site. We collected 4842 samples across five years from 25 species of wild birds resulting in the recovery, isolation, and sequencing of 172 IAVs. With the intent of optimizing sampling efficiencies, we used information derived from this multi-year effort to: 1) evaluate from which species we consistently recover viruses, 2) describe viral subtypes of isolates by host species and year, 3) characterize viral gene segment sequence diversity with respect to host species, and assess potential differences in the viral lineages among the host groups, and 4) examine how evidence of intercontinental exchange of IAVs relates to host species. We consistently recovered viruses from dabbling ducks ( Anas spp .), emperor geese ( Chen canagica ) and glaucous-winged gulls ( Larus glaucescens ). There was little evidence for differences in viral subtypes and diversity from different waterfowl hosts, however subtypes and viral diversity varied between waterfowl host groups and glaucous-winged gulls. Furthermore, higher proportions of viral sequences from northern pintails ( Anas acuta ), emperor geese and glaucous-winged gulls were grouped in phylogenetic clades that included IAV sequences originating from wild birds sampled in Asia as compared to non-pintail dabbling ducks, a difference that may be related to intercontinental migratory tendencies of host species. Our summary of research and surveillance efforts at Izembek NWR will assist in future prioritization of which hosts to sample and swab types to collect in Alaska and elsewhere in order to maximize isolate recovery, subtype and sequence diversity for resultant viruses, and detection of evidence for intercontinental viral exchange.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Major-oxide and trace-element geochemical data from rocks collected on Little Sitkin Island, from Little Sitkin Volcano, Alaska

During the 2005 summer field season, geologists Michelle Coombs, Christina Neal, and Jessica Larsen from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks and the U.S. Geological survey, Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) conducted fieldwork on Little Sitkin Island in the western Aleutians of Alaska. The primary purpose of the fieldwork was to install geophysical networks for volcano monitoring. As part of this effort, AVO geologists conducted reconnaissance fieldwork focused primarily on sample collection for geochemistry.

Alaska↗

USGS2010

Epizootic of beak deformities among wild birds in Alaska: An emerging disease in North America?

The sudden appearance of a large cluster of animals with gross abnormalities may signal a significant change in an ecosystem. We describe an unusual concentration of beak deformities that appear to have arisen rapidly within Alaska and now extend southward along the Pacific Coast. In Alaska we have documented 2,160 Black-capped Chickadees ( Poecile atricapillus ) and 435 individuals of 29 other species of birds, primarily during the past decade, with grossly overgrown and often crossed beaks. The annual prevalence of beak abnormalities among adult Black-capped Chickadees in south-central Alaska varied from 3.6% to 9.7% and averaged 6.5 ± 0.5% between 1999 and 2008. Only 0.05 ± 0.05% of nestlings and 0.3 ± 0.2% of juveniles <6 months old had abnormal beaks, which suggests that this is either a latent developmental or an acquired condition. We documented 80 cases in which a Black-capped Chickadee captured with an apparently normal beak was subsequently recaptured with a beak abnormality and 8 cases in which a beak deformity was no longer detectable upon recapture. Necropsy and histopathology of a sample of affected individuals provided no conclusive evidence of the etiology of this condition. Deformities appear to affect primarily the keratin layer of the beak and may result from abnormally rapid growth of the rhamphotheca. Some affected birds also exhibited lesions in other keratinized tissues of the skin, legs, feet, claws, and feathers, which may represent a systemic disorder or secondary conditions. Additional studies are currently underway to determine diagnostic signs and the underlying cause of this avian keratin disorder.

Alaska↗

USGS2008

Alaska Melilotus invasions: Distribution, origin, and susceptibility of plant communities

Melilotus alba and M. officinalis were introduced to Alaska in 1913 as potential forage crops. These species have become naturalized and are now invading large, exotic plant-free regions of Alaska. We determined distributions of M. alba and M. officinalis in Alaska from surveys conducted each summer from 2002 to 2005. Melilotus alba and M. officinalis occurred at 721 and 205 sites, respectively (39,756 total sites surveyed). The northward limit for M. alba and M. officinalis was 67.15??N and 64.87??N, respectively. Both species were strictly associated with soil disturbance. Melilotus alba extended no farther than 15 m from road edges except where M. alba on roadsides met river floodplains and dispersed downriver (Matanuska and Nenana Rivers). Melilotus has now reached the Tanana River, a tributary of the Yukon River. Populations on floodplains were most extensive on braided sections. On the Nenana River, soil characteristics did not differ between where M. alba was growing versus similar areas where it had not yet reached. The pH of river soils (7.9-8.3) was higher than highway soils (7.3). Upland taiga plant communities grow on acid soils which may protect them from invasion by Melilotus, which prefer alkaline soils; however, early succession communities on river floodplains are susceptible because soils are alkaline. ?? 2008 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research↗

USGS2008

Paleoclimatic significance of chemical weathering in loess-derived paleosols of subarctic central Alaska

Chemical weathering in soils has not been studied extensively in high-latitude regions. Loess sequences with modern soils and paleosols are present in much of subarctic Alaska, and allow an assessment of present and past chemical weathering. Five sections were studied in detail in the Fairbanks, Alaska, area. Paleosols likely date to mid-Pleistocene interglacials, the last interglacial, and early-to-mid-Wisconsin interstadiale. Ratios of mobile (Na, Ca, Mg, Si) to immobile (Ti or Zr) elements indicate that modern soils and most interstadial and interglacial paleosols are characterized by significant chemical weathering. Na2O/TiO2 is lower in modern soils and most paleosols compared to parent loess, indicating depletion of plagioclase. In the clay fraction, smectite is present in Tanana and Yukon River source sediments, but is absent or poorly expressed in modern soils and paleosols, indicating depletion of this mineral also. Loss of both plagioclase and smectite is well expressed in soils and paleosols as lower SiO 2/TiO2. Carbonates are present in the river source sediments, but based on CaO/TiO2, they are depleted in soils and most paleosols (with one exception in the early-to-mid-Wisconsin period). Thus, most soil-forming intervals during past interglacial and interstadial periods in Alaska had climatic regimes that were at least as favorable to mineral weathering as today, and suggest boreal forest or acidic tundra vegetation. ?? 2008 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research↗

USGS2006

Biogeochemical characterization of an undisturbed highly acidic, metal-rich bryophyte habitat, east-central Alaska, U.S.A.

We report on the geochemistry of soil and bryophyte-laden sediment and on the biogeochemistry of willows growing in an undisturbed volcanogenic massive sulfide deposit in the Alaska Range ecoregion of east-central Alaska. We also describe an unusual bryophyte assemblage found growing in the acidic metal-rich waters that drain the area. Ferricrete-cemented silty alluvial sediments within seeps and streams are covered with the liverwort Gymnocolea inflata whereas the mosses Polytrichum commune and P. juniperinum inhabit the area adjacent to the water and within the splash zone. Both the liverwort-encrusted sediment and Polytrichum thalli have high concentrations of major and trace metal cations (e.g., Al, As, Cu, Fe, Hg, La, Mn, Pb, and Zn). Soils in the area do not reflect the geochemical signature of the mineral deposit and we postulate they are influenced by the chemistry of eolian sediments derived from outside the deposit area. The willow, Salix pulchra, growing mostly within and adjacent to the larger streams, has much higher concentrations of Al, As, Cd, Cr, Fe, La, Pb, and Zn when compared to the same species collected in non-mineralized areas of Alaska. The Cd levels are especially high and are shown to exceed, by an order of magnitude, levels demonstrated to be toxic to ptarmigan in Colorado. Willow, growing in this naturally occurring metal-rich Red Mountain alteration zone, may adversely affect the health of browsing animals. ?? 2006 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research↗

USGS2010

Reproductive ecology and habitat use of pacific Black Scoters (Melanitta nigra americana) nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Abundance indices of Black Scoters (Melanitta nigra. americana) breeding in Alaska indicate a long-term population decline without obvious cause (s). However, few life history data are available for the species in North America. In 2001–2004, information was collected on nesting habitat and reproductive parameters (i.e. components of productivity) from a population of Black Scoters nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. A total of 157 nests were found over four years. Primarily, nests were among dense vegetation in shrub edge habitat, predominantly dwarf birch (Betula glandulosa) and Alaska spiraea (Spiraea beauverdiana), an average of 58 m from water. Females initiated nests from 11 June and 17 July across years. Clutch size averaged 7.5 eggs and did not vary annually. Nest success was highly variable among years and ranged from 0.01 to 0.37. Duckling survival to 30 days old varied among years, and ranged from 0.09 – 0.35. Nest success was poor in three of four years, likely due to predation by Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes). Black Scoters appear to have low but variable productivity, consistent with life-history patterns of other sea duck species. Information gained will direct future demographic research on Black Scoters, and highlights knowledge gaps impeding management strategies needed for population recovery.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Indigenous observations of climate change in the Lower Yukon River Basin, Alaska

Natural science climate change studies have led to an overwhelming amount of evidence that the Arctic and Subarctic are among the world's first locations to begin experiencing climate change. Indigenous knowledge of northern regions is a valuable resource to assess the effects of climate change on the people and the landscape. Most studies, however, have focused on coastal Arctic and Subarctic communities with relatively little focus on inland communities. This paper relates the findings from fieldwork conducted in the Lower Yukon River Basin of Alaska in the spring of 2009. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with hunters and elders in the villages of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska to document observations of climate change. This study assumes that scientific findings and indigenous knowledge are complementary and seeks to overcome the false dichotomy that these two ways of knowing are in opposition. The observed changes in the climate communicated by the hunters and elders of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska are impacting the community in ways ranging from subsistence (shifting flora and fauna patterns), concerns about safety (unpredictable weather patterns and dangerous ice conditions), and a changing resource base (increased reliance on fossil fuels). Here we attempt to address the challenges of integrating these two ways of knowing while relating indigenous observations as described by elders and hunters of the study area to those described by scientific literature.

Human Organization↗

USGS2004

Geophysical data reveal the crustal structure of the Alaska range orogen within the aftershock zone of the Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake

Geophysical information, including deep-crustal seismic reflection, magnetotelluric ( mt ), gravity, and magnetic data, cross the aftershock zone of the 3 November 2002 M w 7.9 Denali fault earthquake. These data and aftershock seismicity, jointly interpreted, reveal the crustal structure of the right-lateral-slip Denali fault and the eastern Alaska Range orogen, as well as the relationship between this structure and seismicity. North of the Denali fault, strong seismic reflections from within the Alaska Range orogen show features that dip as steeply as 25° north and extend downward to depths between 20 and 25 km. These reflections reveal crustal structures, probably ductile shear zones, that most likely formed during the Late Cretaceous, but these structures appear to be inactive, having produced little seismicity during the past 20 years. Furthermore, seismic reflections mainly dip north, whereas alignments in aftershock hypocenters dip south. The Denali fault is nonreflective, but modeling of mt , gravity, and magnetic data suggests that the Denali fault dips steeply to vertically. However, in an alternative structural model, the Denali fault is defined by one of the reflection bands that dips to the north and flattens into the middle crust of the Alaska Range orogen. Modeling of mt data indicates a rock body, having low electrical resistivity (>10 Ω·m), that lies mainly at depths greater than 10 km, directly beneath aftershocks of the Denali fault earthquake. The maximum depth of aftershocks along the Denali fault is 10 km. This shallow depth may arise from a higher-than-normal geothermal gradient. Alternatively, the low electrical resistivity of deep rocks along the Denali fault may be associated with fluids that have weakened the lower crust and helped determine the depth extent of the aftershock zone.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Landslides and megathrust splay faults captured by the late Holocene sediment record of eastern Prince William Sound, Alaska

We present new marine seismic‐reflection profiles and bathymetric maps to characterize Holocene depositional patterns, submarine landslides, and active faults beneath eastern and central Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, which is the eastern rupture patch of the 1964 Mw 9.2 earthquake. We show evidence that submarine landslides, many of which are likely earthquake triggered, repeatedly released along the southern margin of Orca Bay in eastern PWS. We document motion on reverse faults during the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake and estimate late Holocene slip rates for these growth faults, which splay from the subduction zone megathrust. Regional bathymetric lineations help define the faults that extend 40–70 km in length, some of which show slip rates as great as 3.75  mm/yr. We infer that faults mapped below eastern PWS connect to faults mapped beneath central PWS and possibly onto the Alaska mainland via an en echelon style of faulting. Moderate (Mw>4) upper‐plate earthquakes since 1964 give rise to the possibility that these faults may rupture independently to potentially generate Mw 7–8 earthquakes, and that these earthquakes could damage local infrastructure from ground shaking. Submarine landslides, regardless of the source of initiation, could generate local tsunamis to produce large run‐ups along nearby shorelines. In a more general sense, the PWS area shows that faults that splay from the underlying plate boundary present proximal, perhaps independent seismic sources within the accretionary prism, creating a broad zone of potential surface rupture that can extend inland 150 km or more from subduction zone trenches.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Seismic envelope-based detection and location of ground-coupled airwaves from volcanoes in Alaska

Volcanic explosions and other infrasonic sources frequently produce acoustic waves that are recorded by seismometers. Here we explore multiple techniques to detect, locate, and characterize ground‐coupled airwaves (GCA) on volcano seismic networks in Alaska. GCA waveforms are typically incoherent between stations, thus we use envelope‐based techniques in our analyses. For distant sources and planar waves, we use f ‐ k beamforming to estimate back azimuth and trace velocity parameters. For spherical waves originating within the network, we use two related time difference of arrival (TDOA) methods to detect and localize the source. We investigate a modified envelope function to enhance the signal‐to‐noise ratio and emphasize both high energies and energy contrasts within a spectrogram. We apply these methods to recent eruptions from Cleveland, Veniaminof, and Pavlof Volcanoes, Alaska. Array processing of GCA from Cleveland Volcano on 4 May 2013 produces robust detection and wave characterization. Our modified envelopes substantially improve the short‐term average/long‐term average ratios, enhancing explosion detection. We detect GCA within both the Veniaminof and Pavlof networks from the 2007 and 2013–2014 activity, indicating repeated volcanic explosions. Event clustering and forward modeling suggests that high‐resolution localization is possible for GCA on typical volcano seismic networks. These results indicate that GCA can be used to help detect, locate, characterize, and monitor volcanic eruptions, particularly in difficult‐to‐monitor regions. We have implemented these GCA detection algorithms into our operational volcano‐monitoring algorithms at the Alaska Volcano Observatory.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Predicting breeding shorebird distributions on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska is an important region for millions of migrating and nesting shorebirds. However, this region is threatened by climate change and increased human development (e.g., oil and gas production) that have the potential to greatly impact shorebird populations and breeding habitat in the near future. Because historic data on shorebird distributions in the ACP are very coarse and incomplete, we sought to develop detailed, contemporary distribution maps so that the potential impacts of climate-mediated changes and development could be ascertained. To do this, we developed and mapped habitat suitability indices for eight species of shorebirds (Black-bellied Plover [Pluvialis squatarola], American Golden-Plover [Pluvialis dominica], Semipalmated Sandpiper [Calidris pusilla], Pectoral Sandpiper [Calidris melanotos], Dunlin [Calidris alpina], Long-billed Dowitcher [Limnodromus scolopaceus], Red-necked Phalarope [Phalaropus lobatus], and Red Phalarope [Phalaropus fulicarius]) that commonly breed within the ACP of Alaska. These habitat suitability models were based on 767 plots surveyed during nine years between 1998 and 2008 (surveys were not conducted in 2003 and 2005), using single-visit rapid area searches during territory establishment and incubation (8 June, 1 July). Species specific habitat suitability indices were developed and mapped using presence-only modeling techniques (partitioned Mahalanobis distance) and landscape environmental variables. For most species, habitat suitability was greater at lower elevations (i.e., near the coast and river deltas) and lower within upland habitats. Accuracy of models was high for all species, ranging from 65 -98%. Our models predicted that the largest fraction of suitable habitat for the majority of species occurred within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, with highly suitable habitat also occurring within coastal areas of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge west to Prudhoe Bay.

Alaska↗