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At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources

USGS2013

Conditions favouring Bromus tectorum dominance of endangered sagebrush steppe ecosystems

1. Ecosystem invasibility is determined by combinations of environmental variables, invader attributes, disturbance regimes, competitive abilities of resident species and evolutionary history between residents and disturbance regimes. Understanding the relative importance of each factor is critical to limiting future invasions and restoring ecosystems. 2. We investigated factors potentially controlling Bromus tectorum invasions into Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis communities across 75 sites in the Great Basin. We measured soil texture, cattle grazing intensity, gaps among perennial plants and plant cover including B. tectorum, biological soil crusts (BSCs) and bare soil. Using a priori knowledge, we developed a multivariate hypothesis of the susceptibility of Artemisia ecosystems to B. tectorum invasion and used the model to assess the relative importance of the factors driving the magnitude of such invasions. 3. Model results imply that bunchgrass community structure, abundance and composition, along with BSC cover, play important roles in controlling B. tectorum dominance. Evidence suggests abundant bunchgrasses limit invasions by limiting the size and connectivity of gaps between vegetation, and BSCs appear to limit invasions within gaps. Results also suggest that cattle grazing reduces invasion resistance by decreasing bunchgrass abundance, shifting bunchgrass composition, and thereby increasing connectivity of gaps between perennial plants while trampling further reduces resistance by reducing BSC. 4. Synthesis and applications. Grazing exacerbates Bromus tectorum dominance in one of North America's most endangered ecosystems by adversely impacting key mechanisms mediating resistance to invasion. If the goal is to conserve and restore resistance of these systems, managers should consider maintaining or restoring: (i) high bunchgrass cover and structure characterized by spatially dispersed bunchgrasses and small gaps between them; (ii) a diverse assemblage of bunchgrass species to maximize competitive interactions with B. tectorum in time and space; and (iii) biological soil crusts to limit B. tectorum establishment. Passive restoration by reducing cumulative cattle grazing may be one of the most effective means of achieving these three goals.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2023

Hypoxia and anoxia tolerance in diploid and triploid eastern oysters at high temperature

Increasing reliance on the use of triploid oysters to support aquaculture production relies on their generally superior growth rate and meat quality over that of diploid oysters. Reports of elevated triploid mortality have generated questions about potential trade-offs between growth and tolerance to environmental stressors. These questions are particularly relevant as climate change, coastal activities, and river management impact water salinity, temperature, nutrients, pH, and oxygen levels within key estuarine oyster growing areas. In particular, the co-occurrence of warm water temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) events are increasingly reported in estuaries, with potentially lethal impacts on sessile, oyster resources. To investigate potential differences in DO tolerance, diploid and triploid market-sized or seed oysters were exposed to continuous normoxia (DO > 5.0 mg L –1 ), hypoxia (DO < 2.0 mg L –1 ), and anoxia (DO < 0.5 mg L –1 ) at 28°C and their mortalities were monitored. The hemolymph of the market-sized oysters was collected to measure cellular and biochemical changes in response to hypoxia and anoxia, whereas their valve movements were also measured. In general, about half of market-sized oysters died within about 1 wk under anoxia (LT 50 : 5.7–8.9 days) and within about 2 wk under hypoxia (LT 50 : 11.9–19.4 days) with diploid oysters tending to die faster than triploid oysters. Seed oysters took longer to die than market-sized oysters under both anoxia (LT 50 : 9.5–12.1 days) and hypoxia (LT 50 : 21.8–25.0 days) with diploid oysters (LT 50 : 9.5–11.8 days) dying slightly faster than triploid oysters (LT 50 : 11.8–12.1 days) under anoxia. Hemolymph pH decreased and plasma calcium and glutathione concentrations increased with decreasing DO, with values under anoxia being different than those under normoxia. Hemocyte density was also lower under anoxia than under either normoxia or hypoxia. Overall, few differences in physiological responses to hypoxia and anoxia were found between diploid and triploid oysters suggesting that ploidy (2N versus 3N) had limited effect on the tolerance and response of eastern oysters to low DO.

Journal of Shellfish Research↗

USGS2017

Long-term monitoring data provide evidence of declining species richness in a river valued for biodiversity conservation

Free-flowing river segments provide refuges for many imperiled aquatic biota that have been extirpated elsewhere in their native ranges. These biodiversity refuges are also foci of conservation concerns because species persisting within isolated habitat fragments may be particularly vulnerable to local environmental change. We have analyzed long-term (14- and 20-y) survey data to assess evidence of fish species declines in two southeastern U.S. rivers where managers and stakeholders have identified potentially detrimental impacts of current and future land uses. The Conasauga River (Georgia and Tennessee) and the Etowah River (Georgia) form free-flowing headwaters of the extensively dammed Coosa River system. These rivers are valued in part because they harbor multiple species of conservation concern, including three federally endangered and two federally threatened fishes. We used data sets comprising annual surveys for fish species at multiple, fixed sites located at river shoals to analyze occupancy dynamics and temporal changes in species richness. Our analyses incorporated repeated site-specific surveys in some years to estimate and account for incomplete species detection, and test for species-specific (rarity, mainstem-restriction) and year-specific (elevated frequencies of low- or high-flow days) covariates on occupancy dynamics. In the Conasauga River, analysis of 26 species at 13 sites showed evidence of temporal declines in colonization rates for nearly all taxa, accompanied by declining species richness. Four taxa (including one federally endangered species) had reduced occupancy across the Conasauga study sites, with three of these taxa apparently absent for at least the last 5 y of the study. In contrast, a similar fauna of 28 taxa at 10 sites in the Etowah River showed no trends in species persistence, colonization, or occupancy. None of the tested covariates showed strong effects on persistence or colonization rates in either river. Previous studies and observations identified contaminants, nutrient loading, or changes in benthic habitat as possible causes for fish species declines in the Conasauga River. Our analysis provides baseline information that could be used to assess effectiveness of future management actions in the Conasauga or Etowah rivers, and illustrates the use of dynamic occupancy models to evaluate evidence of faunal decline from time-series data.

Georgia↗

USGS2016

An evaluation of methods for estimating decadal stream loads

Effective management of water resources requires accurate information on the mass, or load of water-quality constituents transported from upstream watersheds to downstream receiving waters. Despite this need, no single method has been shown to consistently provide accurate load estimates among different water-quality constituents, sampling sites, and sampling regimes. We evaluate the accuracy of several load estimation methods across a broad range of sampling and environmental conditions. This analysis uses random sub-samples drawn from temporally-dense data sets of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate, and suspended-sediment concentration, and includes measurements of specific conductance which was used as a surrogate for dissolved solids concentration. Methods considered include linear interpolation and ratio estimators, regression-based methods historically employed by the U.S. Geological Survey, and newer flexible techniques including Weighted Regressions on Time, Season, and Discharge (WRTDS) and a generalized non-linear additive model. No single method is identified to have the greatest accuracy across all constituents, sites, and sampling scenarios. Most methods provide accurate estimates of specific conductance (used as a surrogate for total dissolved solids or specific major ions) and total nitrogen – lower accuracy is observed for the estimation of nitrate, total phosphorus and suspended sediment loads. Methods that allow for flexibility in the relation between concentration and flow conditions, specifically Beale’s ratio estimator and WRTDS, exhibit greater estimation accuracy and lower bias. Evaluation of methods across simulated sampling scenarios indicate that (1) high-flow sampling is necessary to produce accurate load estimates, (2) extrapolation of sample data through time or across more extreme flow conditions reduces load estimate accuracy, and (3) WRTDS and methods that use a Kalman filter or smoothing to correct for departures between individual modeled and observed values benefit most from more frequent water-quality sampling.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2021

Group density, disease, and season shape territory size and overlap of social carnivores

1. The spatial organization of a population can influence the spread of information, behaviour, and pathogens. Territory size and territory overlap, components of spatial organization, provide key information as these metrics may be indicators of habitat quality, resource dispersion, contact rates, and environmental risk (e.g., indirectly transmitted pathogens). Furthermore, sociality and behaviour can also shape space use, and subsequently, how space use and habitat quality together impact demography. 2. Our study aims to identify factors shaping the spatial organization of wildlife populations and assess the impact of epizootics on space use. We also use network analysis to describe spatial organization and connectivity of social groups. 3. Here, we assessed the seasonal spatial organization of Serengeti lions and Yellowstone wolves at the group level. We examine the factors predicting mean territory size and mean territory overlap for each population using generalized additive models. We further explore the mechanisms by which disease perturbations could cause changes in spatial organization. 4. We demonstrate that lions and wolves were similar in that group-level factors, such as number of groups, shaped spatial organization more than population-level factors, such as population density. Factors shaping territory size were slightly different than factors shaping territory overlap; for example, wolf pack size was an important predictor of territory overlap, but not territory size. Lion spatial networks were more highly connected, while wolf spatial networks varied seasonally. We found that resource dispersion may be more important for driving territory size and overlap for wolves than for lions. Additionally, canine distemper epizootics may alter lion spatial organization, highlighting the importance of including behavioural and movement ecology in studies of pathogen transmission dynamics. 5. We provide insight about when we might expect to observe the impacts of resource dispersion, disease perturbations, and other ecological factors on spatial organization. Our work highlights the importance of monitoring and managing social carnivore populations at the group level. Future research should elucidate the complex relationships between demographics, social and spatial structure, abiotic and biotic conditions, and pathogen infections.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2021

Investigation of scale-dependent groundwater/surface-water exchange in rivers by gradient self-potential logging: Numerical modeling and field experiments

Exchanges of groundwater and surface-water are fundamental to a wide range of water-supply and water-quality management issues but challenging to map beyond the reach scale. Waterborne gradient self-potential (SP) measurements are directly sensitive to water flow through riverbed sediments and can be used to infer exchange locations, direction (gain versus loss), scale, and relative changes, but to date applications to river corridor hydrology are limited. Numerical modeling and field experiments were therefore performed herein, each emphasizing waterborne gradient SP logging for identifying and locating focused vertical groundwater discharge (surface-water gain) and recharge (surface-water loss) in a river. Two and three-dimensional numerical models were constructed to simulate the polarities, appearances, and peak amplitudes of streaming-potential and electric-field anomalies on a riverbed and in the surface-water that were attributable to steady-state vertical fluxes of groundwater through high-permeability conduits in the riverbed. Effects of varied hydraulic length-scale of exchange and surface-water depth were tested through numerical modeling. Modeling results aided in data acquisition and interpretation for three repeated field experiments performed along a 1.5–2.0 km reach of the Quashnet River in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where focused, meter-scale groundwater discharges occur at discrete locations within otherwise ubiquitous and more diffuse groundwater upwelling conditions. Strong gradient SP anomalies were repeatedly measured in the Quashnet River at previously confirmed locations of focused groundwater discharge, showing the efficacy of waterborne gradient SP logging in identifying and characterizing groundwater/surface water exchange dynamics at multiple river network scales.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2020

Improving the ability to include freshwater wetland plants in process-based models

Considerable effort and resources have been placed into conservation programs designed to reduce or alleviate negative environmental effects of crop production and into evaluation of the benefits of these programs. Wetlands are an important source of ecosystem services, but modeling wetland plants is an emerging science. To date, wetland plant growth has not been explicitly accounted for in ecosystem service models that quantify conservation program effects. As part of an effort to more accurately simulate wetland plants within process-based models, we expanded upon plant growth data collected in an earlier effort with additional sampling at two of four previously sampled areas, and included a fifth sampling site. We then used data from the five sites spanning five years as wetland plant parameters at both the species and functional group levels for the Agricultural Land Management Alternative with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) model. In addition to individual species, modelers are interested in functional groups representing a collection of species because it is unrealistic to model every species occurring in an ecosystem. ALMANAC simulations were completed at three sites for both individual wetland plant species and functional groups. At each site, simulated plant yields were within 1 Mg ha –1 (±7%) of measured values ( r 2 = 0.99). Multisite species simulated yields were within 37% of measured values ( r 2 = 0.95). Functional groups performed as well as individual species simulations. Functional group simulated yields were within 1 Mg ha –1 (±5%) of measured yields. Plant growth is a major component of these wetland ecosystems, and ALMANAC verified wetland plant parameters support more accurate assessments of conservation programs and practices on the influence of wetland ecosystems embedded within agricultural fields. The improved plant parameters we provide here will be transferred to other process-based models that focus on other ecosystem components such as soil and water effects, facilitating wetland evaluations across the United States and elsewhere.

California, Delaware, Maryland, North Dakota, Texa↗

USGS2026

When best intentions are not enough - A collaboration between scientists, policymakers, and an agricultural community

Rocky Mountain National Park is a Congressionally mandated Clean Air Act Class I Area, but years of research have documented evidence of biogeochemical and ecological change caused by atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. A coalition of government agencies—National Park Service, the Environmental Protection Agency Region 8, and the State of Colorado—developed the 2007 Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan to reduce wet nitrogen deposition to the park from the baseline in 2006 by 50% by 2032. Fifty-four percent of wet nitrogen deposition is ammonium, primarily sourced from industrial cattle and dairy operations east of the park. An Agriculture Subcommittee, meeting with regulatory and management agencies and scientists since 2006, has explored voluntary options to reduce ammonia emissions. Ammonia emissions are unregulated in the U.S. Despite sustained efforts, neither ammonium deposition nor total inorganic nitrogen deposition have declined at the rate determined to reach the targeted value by 2032. In fact, ammonia is increasing over the Front Range agricultural area. Wet nitrogen deposition in 2024 was 2.81 kg N ha −1 yr −1 , 0.61 kg N ha −1 yr −1 higher than targeted in the Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan. The collaborative approach between agricultural producers, regulatory entities, and resource managers is not working, but not for lack of effort by all parties. Cattle process nitrogen inefficiently, and while management practices can somewhat reduce the proportion of ammonia emitted from feedlots, with more than one million head of cattle east of Rocky Mountain National Park, large-scale reductions are unlikely. New programs to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (46% of wet nitrogen deposition) may reduce nitrogen deposition that is changing park ecosystems. Improved integration of crop and livestock agriculture and valuation of the ecosystem services and economy of Rocky Mountain National Park alongside agricultural value are topics for further discussion. Implications : Nitrogen deposition in precipitation to Rocky Mountain National Park has changed natural ecosystems. To protect its Clean Air Act Class I status a 2007 Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan agreed upon by state and federal agencies set a goal to reduce wet nitrogen deposition to the Park by half by 2032. Industrial livestock operations are a large source of nitrogen; an Agriculture Subcommittee explored voluntary options to reduce emissions from cattle. Despite sustained efforts nitrogen deposition has not declined. Further reductions in industry and transportation emissions will be needed reduce nitrogen deposition to Rocky Mountain National Park.

Colorado↗

USGS2018

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF 6 , CFCs, and 3 H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

Maryland↗

USGS1999

Determining travel time and stream mixing using tracers and empirical equations

Water-supply managers need adequate warning to protect water supplies if a contaminant is spilled in an upgradient tributary. The city of Lincoln draws water from alluvium associated with the Platte River near Ashland, eastern Nebraska. Using constant-rate injection methods and a conservative tracer, travel time and degree of mixing of contaminants in the Elkhorn and Platte Rivers were evaluated in 1995 and 1996. The results indicate that, for flows of 584 to 162 m 3 /s in the Platte River at Ashland with 13 to 28% of its flow contributed by the Elkhorn River, 8.2 to 13.2 h are required for the leading edge of a chemical plume to travel from the Elkhorn River at Waterloo to the Platte River at Ashland. The peak concentration of a chemical spilled as a slug in the Elkhorn River near Waterloo would pass the well field after 11.3 to 16.1 h. Existing empirical equations for calculation of travel time were shown to apply to reaches of streams studied, but underestimated the leading edge up to 14% and overestimated the plateau concentration up to 11% at Site 5. However, time of travel may be influenced by the relative contribution of a tributary. The plateau concentration of the chemical in the Platte River at Ashland was 45 to 60% of its concentration in the Elkhorn River. The degree of mixing of the tracer in the Platte River at Ashland increased from 53 to 65% as the relative contribution of the Elkhorn River increased.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2013

Wetland management reduces sediment and nutrient loading to the upper Mississippi River

Restored riparian wetlands in the Upper Mississippi River basin have potential to remove sediment and nutrients from tributaries before they flow into the Mississippi River. For 3 yr we calculated retention efficiencies of a marsh complex, which consisted of a restored marsh and an adjacent natural marsh that were connected to Halfway Creek, a small tributary of the Mississippi. We measured sediment, N, and P removal through a mass balance budget approach, N removal through denitrification, and N and P removal through mechanical soil excavation. The marsh complex had average retention rates of approximately 30 Mg sediment ha −1 yr −1 , 26 kg total N ha −1 yr −1 , and 20 kg total P ha −1 yr −1 . Water flowed into the restored marsh only during high-discharge events. Although the majority of retention occurred in the natural marsh, portions of the natural marsh were hydrologically disconnected at low discharge due to historical over-bank sedimentation. The natural marsh removed >60% of sediment, >10% of P, and >5% of N loads (except the first year, when it was a N source). The marsh complex was a source of NH 4 + and soluble reactive P. The average denitrification rate for the marsh complex was 2.88 mg N m −2 h −1 . Soil excavation removed 3600 Mg of sediment, 5.6 Mg of N, and 2.7 Mg of P from the restored marsh. The marsh complex was effective in removing sediment and nutrients from storm flows; however, retention could be increased if more water was diverted into both restored and natural marshes before entering the river.

Mississippi↗

USGS2026

Linking distribution and return-on-investment models to optimize woody management for prairie grouse in Nebraska

Grasslands in Nebraska, USA, face threats from agricultural conversion, urban development, and woody encroachment, all of which negatively affect prairie grouse ( Tympanuchus spp.) populations. To optimize conservation planning, Nebraska wildlife agencies developed probabilistic area-based surveys for greater prairie-chicken ( T. cupido ) and sharp-tailed grouse ( T. phasianellus ) to sample landscapes across a range of environmental conditions. This design improves historical surveys and enables the development of distribution models that quantitatively define habitat associations and support scenario-based conservation planning. Using survey data collected during 2020–2022, we modeled prairie grouse occurrence and abundance as functions of land cover, topography, and climate using Bayesian logistic and zero-inflated negative binomial models with regularized horseshoe priors. We then conducted a maximum potential return-on-investment analysis of woody cover treatments, assuming sustained treatment success, relative to projected impacts of woody encroachment on prairie grouse populations by 2050. Among modeled associations were a positive association with grasslands having low woody cover and a negative association with grasslands having high woody cover. Across the 3-year period, median estimated annual populations were 142,380 for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs across years = 68,821–277,615) and 64,154 for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs across years = 27,550–146,559). Under projected woody encroachment, mean predicted population declines were 10% for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs = 7–14%) and 6% for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs = 5–7%). Areas with high prairie grouse density and low treatment costs in 2021, and high projected woody encroachment and population loss by 2050, offered the greatest return on investment for woody management. Return on investment was greatest in the northwestern Shortgrass Prairie ecoregion (northwestern Nebraska) for sharp-tailed grouse and the eastern Sandhills ecoregion (central Nebraska) for both species. These models underscore the value of evidence-based, quantitative approaches for prioritizing conservation actions on working lands. Scenario-based modeling could be extended to guide other treatments, such as optimizing restoration (e.g., Conservation Reserve Program) or incentivizing grassland persistence in areas with predicted climate resilience.

Nebraska↗

USGS2020

Does fecundity of cisco vary in the Upper Great Lakes?

Fecundity of fish is influenced by several factors, including body length, condition, population density, and environmental conditions. It follows that fecundity of fish populations can exhibit spatiotemporal variability; thus, periodic quantification of length–fecundity relationships is important for management. We hypothesized that average fecundity of Cisco Coregonus artedi in the upper Laurentian Great Lakes would be lower in Lake Superior than in Lakes Huron and Michigan. The trophic status of these lakes recently converged, but Lakes Huron and Michigan currently support lower Cisco densities; thus, we expected that they would reach larger sizes and have greater fecundity owing to lower intraspecific competition. Ovaries were collected from prespawn Cisco during 2008–2010 to test this hypothesis. We also compared length–fecundity relationships for 2008–2010 to those of precollapse (1930s–1950s) populations to explore how relationships have changed. Average fecundity of Cisco during 2008–2010 was lower in Lake Superior compared to Lakes Huron and Michigan; length–fecundity relationships in the latter two lakes did not vary significantly, so they were combined. Body condition was highest in Lakes Huron and Michigan. We used otoliths to determine age and found that body condition was domed shaped with respect to age in Lakes Huron and Superior. There were no females older than age 5 in our samples from Lake Michigan because that population was just beginning to recover from very low levels. Females of intermediate age had the highest fecundities in both Lake Huron (ages 7–13) and Lake Superior (ages 8–18). We hypothesize that differences in body morphometry may also influence fecundity, with deeper‐bodied C. artedi albus , the predominant form in Lakes Michigan and Huron, having greater fecundity than shallower‐bodied C. artedi artedi in Lake Superior. Moreover, varying Cisco diets and seasonal movement patterns across lakes may have also contributed to differences. Females in Lakes Superior and Michigan are currently more fecund than their precollapse counterparts.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2016

Desert bighorn sheep lambing habitat: Parturition, nursery, and predation sites

Fitness of female ungulates is determined by neonate survival and lifetime reproductive success. Therefore, adult female ungulates should adopt behaviors and habitat selection patterns that enhance survival of neonates during parturition and lactation. Parturition site location may play an important role in neonatal mortality of desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis mexicana ) when lambs are especially vulnerable to predation, but parturition sites are rarely documented for this species. Our objectives were to assess environmental characteristics at desert bighorn parturition, lamb nursery, and predation sites and to assess differences in habitat characteristics between parturition sites and nursery group sites, and predation sites and nursery group sites. We used vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) to identify parturition sites and capture neonates. We then compared elevation, slope, terrain ruggedness, and visibility at parturition, nursery, and lamb predation sites with paired random sites and compared characteristics of parturition sites and lamb predation sites to those of nursery sites. When compared to random sites, odds of a site being a parturition site were highest at intermediate slopes and decreased with increasing female visibility. Odds of a site being a predation site increased with decreasing visibility. When compared to nursery group sites, odds of a site being a parturition site had a quadratic relationship with elevation and slope, with odds being highest at intermediate elevations and intermediate slopes. When we compared predation sites to nursery sites, odds of a site being a predation were highest at low elevation areas with high visibility and high elevation areas with low visibility likely because of differences in hunting strategies of coyote ( Canis latrans ) and puma ( Puma concolor ). Parturition sites were lower in elevation and slope than nursery sites. Understanding selection of parturition sites by adult females and how habitat characteristics at these sites differ from those at predation and nursery sites can provide insight into strategies employed by female desert bighorn sheep and other species during and after parturition to promote neonate survival.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1993

Flow recommendations for maintaining riparian vegetation along the Upper Missouri River, Montana

Montana Power Company, Inc. (MPC) submitted a final license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on November 30, 1992. In this application, MPC proposed a plan for the protection of fish, wildlife, habitat, and water-quality resources. One concern was maintenance of woody riparian vegetation along the Missouri River, especially along the Wild and Scenic reach of the river, where the riparian forest occurs in relatively small discontinuous stands. The objectives of this project were 1) to recommend flows that would protect and enhance riparian forests along the Missouri River, and 2) to develop elements of an environmental monitoring program that could be used to assess the effectiveness of the recommended flows. Plains cottonwood ( Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera ) is the key structural component of riparian forests along the Missouri River. Therefore, we focused our analysis on factors affecting populations of this species. Previous work had demonstrated that the age structure of cottonwood populations is strongly influenced by aspects of flow that promote successfully establishment. In this study our approach was to determine the precise age of plains cottonwood trees growing along the Upper Missouri River and to relate years of establishment to the flow record. Our work was carried out between Coal Banks Landing and the Fred G. Robinson Bridge within the Wild and Scenic portion of the Missouri River. This segment of the river occupies a narrow valley and exhibits little channel migration. Maps and notes from the journals of Lewis and Clark (1804-1806) suggest that the present distribution and abundance of cottonwoods within the study reach is generally similar to presettlement conditions. Flows in the study reach are influenced by a number of dams and diversions, most importantly, Canyon Ferry and Tiber Dams. Although flow regulation has decreased peak flows and increased low flows, the gross seasonal pattern of flow has not been greatly altered. Most cottonwood establishment in our study reach occurred in years with a peak mean daily flow greater than 1,400 m 3 /s (49,434 cfs), or in the two years following such a flow. These years include 35 out of the 111 years of record, and account for establishment of 47 of 60 trees examined, a highly significant relationship. Infrequent establishment of cottonwood trees is not the result of scarcity of seed or seedlings. In the study reach seedlings become established most years on bare, relatively low surfaces deposited by the river. However, the high elevation of establishment of all trees dating to before 1978 indicates that only individuals established on high flood deposits are able to survive subsequent floods and ice jams. In order to maintain the present abundance of plains cottonwood in the study area we recommend flood flows in excess of 1,400 m 3 /s (49,434 cfs) measures as mean daily discharge at Fort Benton (U.S. Geological Survey gage 06090800) with a recurrence interval of approximately 9 years. Because cottonwood seeds remain viable for only a few weeks, and because seedling require a moist, bare surface, we further recommend maintenance of the historic timing of flooding with peak flood flows occurring between mid-May and late-June. Flow is not the only factor influencing cottonwood regeneration along this reach of the Missouri River. Land management, especially cattle grazing, is clearly having an impact, and changes in cottonwood populations could be expected if these practices were altered. However, the dependence of cottonwood establishment on high flow is clear in this reach in spite of the effects of other factors. Given the value of the resource, we strongly suggest establishment of a monitoring program to determine the effectiveness of the recommended flows and to provide the data necessary for refining them. We recommend a monitoring program that would include: 1) ten permanent, widely space channel cross sections for annual measurement of channel geometry and cottonwood establishment, growth, and survival; 2) five livestock enclosures to monitor the influence of grazing in the study area; and 3) low-elevation aerial photography of the reach every five years and after every flood to detect changes in channel geometry and forested area. Because cottonwood establishment is episodic, a long-term commitment to the monitoring effort is essential. In addition, cross sections and exclosures should be easy enough to access that measurements during flood years are possible.

Montana↗

USGS2018

Accuracy assessment of NLCD 2011 impervious cover data for the Chesapeake Bay region, USA

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) contains three eras (2001, 2006, 2011) of percentage urban impervious cover (%IC) at the native pixel size (30 m-x-30 m) of the Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite. These data are potentially valuable to environmental managers and stakeholders because of the utility of %IC as an indicator of watershed and aquatic condition, but lack an accuracy assessment because of the absence of suitable reference data. Recently developed 1 m2 land cover data for the Chesapeake Bay region makes it possible to assess NLCD %IC accuracy for a 262,000 km2 region based on a census rather than a sample of reference data. We report agreement between the two %IC datasets for watersheds and the riparian zones within watersheds and four additional square units. The areas of the six assessment units were 40 ha cell, 433 ha (riparian unit average), 2,756 ha cell, 5,626 ha cell, 8,569 ha (watershed unit average) and 22,500 ha cell. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) was ≤ 1.6% for each of the six assessment units and Mean Deviation (MD) was only slightly less, indicating NLCD reliably reproduced %IC from the 1 m2 data with a small (≤ 1.6%) and consistent tendency for underestimation. Results were sensitive to assessment unit choice. The results for the four largest assessment units had very similar regression parameters, R2 values, and patterns of bias. Results for the riparian assessment were different from those for the watershed unit and the other three larger units. MAD was about 50% less for the riparian zones than it was for the watersheds, the direction of bias was less consistent, and NLCD %IC was uniformly higher than 1 m2 %IC in urbanized riparian zones. For the smallest unit, bias patterns were more similar to the riparian unit and regression results were more similar to the four larger units. MAD and MD were also sensitive to the amount of urbanization, increasing as NLCD %IC increased. The low overall bias and positive relationship between bias and level of urbanization suggest that the benefits of obtaining 1 m2 IC data outside of urban areas may not outweigh the costs of obtaining such data.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2016

Optimizing selection of training and auxiliary data for operational land cover classification for the LCMAP initiative

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative is a new end-to-end capability to continuously track and characterize changes in land cover, use, and condition to better support research and applications relevant to resource management and environmental change. Among the LCMAP product suite are annual land cover maps that will be available to the public. This paper describes an approach to optimize the selection of training and auxiliary data for deriving the thematic land cover maps based on all available clear observations from Landsats 4–8. Training data were selected from map products of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Land Cover Trends project. The Random Forest classifier was applied for different classification scenarios based on the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. We found that extracting training data proportionally to the occurrence of land cover classes was superior to an equal distribution of training data per class, and suggest using a total of 20,000 training pixels to classify an area about the size of a Landsat scene. The problem of unbalanced training data was alleviated by extracting a minimum of 600 training pixels and a maximum of 8000 training pixels per class. We additionally explored removing outliers contained within the training data based on their spectral and spatial criteria, but observed no significant improvement in classification results. We also tested the importance of different types of auxiliary data that were available for the conterminous United States, including: (a) five variables used by the National Land Cover Database, (b) three variables from the cloud screening ‘‘Function of mask” (Fmask) statistics, and (c) two variables from the change detection results of CCDC. We found that auxiliary variables such as a Digital Elevation Model and its derivatives (aspect, position index, and slope), potential wetland index, water probability, snow probability, and cloud probability improved the accuracy of land cover classification. Compared to the original strategy of the CCDC algorithm (500 pixels per class), the use of the optimal strategy improved the classification accuracies substantially (15-percentage point increase in overall accuracy and 4-percentage point increase in minimum accuracy).

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2015

Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations

Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (<1 year old) sandhill crane Grus canadensis recruitment of the Rocky Mountain Population (RMP). We consider spatial climate predictors motivated by hypotheses of how drought across multiple time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment. Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression. Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring–summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect. Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond. Generalizable predictive models (trained by out-of-sample fit and based on ecological hypotheses) are needed by conservation and management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗