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USGS2018

Inferred fish behavior its implications for hydroacoustic surveys in nearshore habitats

Population availability and vessel avoidance effects on hydroacoustic abundance estimates may be scale dependent; therefore, it is important to evaluate these biases across systems. We performed an inter-ship comparison survey to determine the effect of vessel size, day-night period, depth, and environmental gradients on walleye ( Sander vitreus ) density estimates in Lake Erie, an intermediate-scaled system. Consistent near-bottom depth distributions coupled with horizontal fish movements relative to vessel paths indicated avoidance behavior contributed to higher walleye densities from smaller vessels in shallow water (i.e., <15 m), although the difference decreased with increasing depth. Diel bank migrations in response to seasonally varying onshore-to-offshore environmental gradients likely contributed to day-night differences in densities between sampling locations and seasons. Spatial and unexplained variation accounted for a high proportion of total variation; however, increasing sampling intensity can mitigate effects on precision. Therefore, researchers should minimize systematic avoidance and availability related biases (i.e., vessel and day-night period) to improve population abundance estimates. Quantifying availability and avoidance behavior effects and partitioning sources of variation provides informed flexibility for designing future hydroacoustic surveys in shallow-water nearshore environments.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2024

Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of desert reptiles and amphibians: Assisted migration and acclimation rescue from extirpation

Recent climate change should result in expansion of species to northern or high elevation range margins, and contraction at southern and low elevation margins in the northern hemisphere, because of local extirpations or range shifts or both. We combined museum occurrence records from both the continental U.S. and Mexico with a new eco-physiological model of extinction developed for lizard families of the world to predict the distributions of 30 desert-endemic reptile and amphibian species under climate change scenarios. The model predicts that 38 % of local populations will go extinct in the next 50 years, across all 30 species. However, extinctions may be attenuated in forested sites and by the presence of montane environments in contemporary ranges. Of the 30 species, three were at very high risk of extinction as a result of their thermal limits being exceeded, which illustrates the predictive value of ecophysiological modeling approaches for conservation studies. In tandem with global strategies of limiting CO2 emissions, we propose urgent regional management strategies for existing and new reserves that are targeted at three species: Barred Tiger Salamander (Ambystomatidae: Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi), Desert Short-horned Lizard (Phrynosomatidae: Phrynosoma ornatissimum), and Morafka's Desert Tortoise (Testudinidae: Gopherus morafkai), which face a high risk of extinction by 2070. These strategies focus on assisted migration and preservation within climatic refugia, such as high-elevation and forested habitats. We forecast where new reserves should be established by merging our model of extinction risk with gap analysis. We also highlight that acclimation (i.e., phenotypic plasticity) could ameliorate risk of extinction but is rarely included in ecophysiological models. We use Ambystoma salamanders to show how acclimation can be incorporated into such models of extinction risk.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2025

Landscape transcriptomic analysis detects thermal stress responses and potential adaptive variation in wild brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) during successive heatwaves

Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, are becoming more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. Critically, such extreme weather events can be more important drivers of extirpation and selection than changes in annual or seasonal averages and they pose a particularly large threat to poikilothermic organisms. In this study, we evaluated the transcriptomic response of a coldwater adapted fish species, the eastern brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), to two successive heatwaves during July and August 2022. We sampled brook trout at eight time points from four streams ( N = 116 fish), sequenced mRNA from gill samples using TagSeq, and quantified expression levels of 32,670 unique transcripts. Multivariate analyses found that overall expression patterns in response to water temperature change were similar among streams. These analyses further detected groups of genes involved in immune response and oxygen carrier activity that were upregulated and downregulated respectively at higher water temperatures. We also detected 43 genes that were differentially expressed at different time points and followed the same expression pattern during the two heatwaves. Of these genes, 42 covaried with water temperature and most (27, 62.8 %) exhibited responses that varied by stream. Some of the differentially expressed genes, including heat shock proteins and cold-inducible RNA binding proteins, have been widely linked to temperature responses in experimental studies, whereas other genes we identified have functions that have not been well-studied in relationship to temperature or have unknown functions. This study shows the utility of landscape transcriptomic approaches to identify important biological processes governing wild organismal responses to short-term stressors. The results of this study can guide future investigations to identify phenotypic and genetic diversity that contribute to adaptive responses to heatwaves and improve predictions of how populations will respond to future climate change.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2012

Use of a storm water retention system for conservation of regionally endangered fishes

Maintaining aquatic biodiversity in urban or suburban areas can be problematic because urban landscapes can be nearly devoid of aquatic habitats other than engineered basins for storm water management. These areas are usually of questionable value for fish, but we examined a case study in which five regionally imperiled fish species were reintroduced into an artificial storm water detention pond and subsequently thrived. Although not a formal experiment, postintroduction survey data suggested that three of the five species maintained high population densities for 10 years after initial stocking, and two persisted in lower numbers. Success was likely due to a combination of unique design features and prior habitat preparation that resulted in clear water conditions that supported dense vegetation. Stocked fish persisted despite occasional bouts of low dissolved oxygen and increased chloride levels resulting from road salt application within the watershed. Transplanted fish served as a source population for both research and further reintroduction experiments. We suggest that, for some fish species, habitat preservation has a middle ground between natural habitats and completely artificial environments that require constant husbandry and that storm water systems could be used to create engineered sanctuaries within the human landscape that have many potential benefits for both humans and fish.

Fisheries↗

USGS2024

Hunting mode and habitat selection mediate the success of human hunters

Background As a globally widespread apex predator, humans have unprecedented lethal and non-lethal effects on prey populations and ecosystems. Yet compared to non-human predators, little is known about the movement ecology of human hunters, including how hunting behavior interacts with the environment. Methods We characterized the hunting modes, habitat selection, and harvest success of 483 rifle hunters in California using high-resolution GPS data. We used Hidden Markov Models to characterize fine-scale movement behavior, and k-means clustering to group hunters by hunting mode, on the basis of their time spent in each behavioral state. Finally, we used Resource Selection Functions to quantify patterns of habitat selection for successful and unsuccessful hunters of each hunting mode. Results Hunters exhibited three distinct and successful hunting modes (“coursing”, “stalking”, and “sit-and-wait”), with coursings as the most successful strategy. Across hunting modes, there was variation in patterns of selection for roads, topography, and habitat cover, with differences in habitat use of successful and unsuccessful hunters across modes. Conclusions Our study indicates that hunters can successfully employ a diversity of harvest strategies, and that hunting success is mediated by the interacting effects of hunting mode and landscape features. Such results highlight the breadth of human hunting modes, even within a single hunting technique, and lend insight into the varied ways that humans exert predation pressure on wildlife.

California↗

USGS2015

Patterns in diurnal airspace use by migratory landbirds along an ecological barrier

Migratory bird populations and survival are affected by conditions experienced during migration. While many studies and conservation and management efforts focus on terrestrial stoppage and staging areas, the aerial environment through which migrants move also is subjected to anthropogenic impacts with potential consequences to migratory movement and survival. During autumn migration, the northern coastline of Lake Superior acts as an ecological barrier for many landbirds migrating out of the boreal forests of North America. From 24 observation points, we assessed the diurnal movements of birds throughout autumn migration, 2008-2010, within a 210 km by 10 km coastal region along the northern coast of Lake Superior. Several raptor species showed patterns in airspace associated with topographic features such as proximity to the coastline and presence of ridgelines. Funneling movement, commonly used to describe the concentration of raptors along a migratory diversion line that either prevents or enhances migration progress, occurred only for Bald and Golden Eagles. This suggests a "leaky" migration funnel for most migratory raptors (e.g., migrating birds exiting the purported migration corridor). Passerines migrating during the late season showed more spatial and temporal structure in airspace distribution than raptors, including funneling and an association with airspace near the coast. We conclude that a) the diurnal use of airspace by many migratory landbirds is patterned in space and time, b) autumn count sites situated along ecological barriers substantially underestimate the number of raptors due to 'leakage' out of these concentration areas, and c) the magnitude and structure of diurnal passerine movements in airspace have been overlooked. The heavy and structured use of airspace by migratory landbirds, especially the airspace associated with anthropogenic development (e.g., buildings, towers, turbines) necessitates a shift in focus to airspace management and conservation attention for these animals.

Minnesota↗

USGS2019

Distribution of contaminants in the environment and wildlife habitat use: A case study with lead and waterfowl on the Upper Texas Coast

The magnitude and distribution of lead contamination remain unknown in wetland systems. Anthropogenic deposition of lead may be contributing to negative population-level effects in waterfowl and other organisms that depend on dynamic wetland habitats, particularly if they are unable to detect and differentiate levels of environmental contamination by lead. Detection of lead and behavioral response to elevated lead levels by waterfowl is poorly understood, but necessary to characterize the risk of lead-contaminated habitats. We measured the relationship between lead contamination of wetland soils and habitat use by mottled ducks ( Anas fulvigula ) on the Upper Texas Coast, USA. Mottled ducks have historically experienced disproportionate negative effects from lead exposure, and exhibit a unique nonmigratory life history that increases risk of exposure when inhabiting contaminated areas. We used spatial interpolation to estimate lead in wetland soils of the Texas Chenier Plain National Wildlife Refuge Complex. Soil lead levels varied across the refuge complex (0.01–1085.51 ppm), but greater lead concentrations frequently corresponded to areas with high densities of transmittered mottled ducks. We used soil lead concentration data and MaxENT species distribution models to quantify relationships among various habitat factors and locations of mottled ducks. Use of habitats with greater lead concentration increased during years of a major disturbance. Because mottled ducks use habitats with high concentrations of lead during periods of stress, have greater risk of exposure following major disturbance to the coastal marsh system, and no innate mechanism for avoiding the threat of lead exposure, we suggest the potential presence of an ecological trap of quality habitat that warrants further quantification at a population scale for mottled ducks.

Texas↗

USGS2026

Disease-associated mortality drives reduction in Yukon River Chinook salmon escapement: A novel method for quantifying the negative impacts of ‘misfit’ parasites to improve fisheries management

Parasites can suppress host populations through parasite-induced mortality. However, the negative effects of parasites are difficult to measure in wild populations and we have few tools for quantifying the magnitude of parasite-induced mortality. This is especially true for many ‘misfit’ parasites that do not fit into standard classifications (e.g. fungal-like parasites and myxozoans). As such, we are limited in our ability to include the effects of parasites in fish and wildlife management strategies. Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) are a species of immense cultural and ecological significance but populations are declining across much of their range. In the Yukon River, Alaska, USA, episodic outbreaks of the ichthyosporean parasite Ichthyophonus have been linked to declines, but population-level effects of Ichthyophonus on Yukon Chinook salmon remain largely unknown. We developed a novel model that leverages changes in parasite intensity distributions to quantify the magnitude of disease-induced mortality occurring in host populations. We used it to address two questions to inform management of Yukon Chinook salmon: (i) Is parasite-induced mortality occurring in Chinook salmon and at what magnitude? (ii) What are the drivers of spatio-temporal variability in parasite-induced mortality? Using 3 years of surveys, we quantified the evidence for the presence, magnitude, and variability in Ichthyophonus -induced mortality in Chinook salmon. Our model predicted that Ichthyophonus was responsible for between 8% and 15% mortality of the migrating Chinook salmon population prior to reaching the Canadian border and could describe nearly 35% of unaccounted for mortality at the border. The model predicted that variability in mortality among years could largely be explained by differences in parasite acquisition in the marine environment rather than differences in infection dynamics in the river. Synthesis and applications . Alaska Department of Fish and Game is implementing an annual monitoring program at the mouth of the Yukon River where our model will estimate the proportion of fish at risk from parasite-induced mortality to inform annual management. Moreover, the model is broadly applicable to other fungal-like and myxozoan parasites of conservation concern, where improved estimates of parasite-induced mortality could be used to predict parasite suppression of wild and managed host populations.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Replicated landscape genomics identifies evidence of local adaptation to urbanization in wood frogs

Native species that persist in urban environments may benefit from local adaptation to novel selection factors. We used double-digest restriction-side associated DNA (RAD) sequencing to evaluate shifts in genome-wide genetic diversity and investigate the presence of parallel evolution associated with urban-specific selection factors in wood frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ). Our replicated paired study design involved 12 individuals from each of 4 rural and urban populations to improve our confidence that detected signals of selection are indeed associated with urbanization. Genetic diversity measures were less for urban populations; however, the effect size was small, suggesting little biological consequence. Using an F ST outlier approach, we identified 37 of 8344 genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms with consistent evidence of directional selection across replicates. A genome-wide association study analysis detected modest support for an association between environment type and 12 of the 37 F ST outlier loci. Discriminant analysis of principal components using the 37 F ST outlier loci produced correct reassignment for 87.5% of rural samples and 93.8% of urban samples. Eighteen of the 37 F ST outlier loci mapped to the American bullfrog ( Rana [Lithobates] catesbeiana ) genome, although none were in coding regions. This evidence of parallel evolution to urban environments provides a powerful example of the ability of urban landscapes to direct evolutionary processes.

Maine↗

USGS2005

Occurrence of fecal-indicator bacteria and protocols for identification of fecal-contamination sources in selected reaches of the West Branch Brandywine Creek, Chester County, Pennsylvania

The presence of fecal-indicator bacteria indicates the potential presence of pathogens originating from the fecal matter of warm-blooded animals. These pathogens are responsible for numerous human diseases ranging from common diarrhea to meningitis and polio. The detection of fecal-indicator bacteria and interpretation of the resultant data are, therefore, of great importance to water-resource managers. Current (2005) techniques used to assess fecal contamination within the fluvial environment primarily assess samples collected from the water column, either as grab samples or as depth- and (or) width-integrated samples. However, current research indicates approximately 99 percent of all bacteria within nature exist as attached, or sessile, bacteria. Because of this condition, most current techniques for the detection of fecal contamination, which utilize bacteria, assess only about 1 percent of the total bacteria within the fluvial system and are, therefore, problematic. Evaluation of the environmental factors affecting the occurrence and distribution of bacteria within the fluvial system, as well as the evaluation and modification of alternative approaches that effectively quantify the larger population of sessile bacteria within fluvial sediments, will present water-resource managers with more effective tools to assess, prevent, and (or) eliminate sources of fecal contamination within pristine and impaired watersheds. Two stream reaches on the West Branch Brandywine Creek in the Coatesville, Pa., region were studied between September 2002 and August 2003. The effects of sediment particle size, climatic conditions, aquatic growth, environmental chemistry, impervious surfaces, sediment and soil filtration, and dams on observed bacteria concentrations were evaluated. Alternative approaches were assessed to better detect geographic sources of fecal contamination including the use of turbidity as a surrogate for bacteria, the modification and implementation of sandbag bacteria samplers, and the use of optical brighteners. For the purposes of this report, sources of bacteria were defined as geographic locations where elevated concentrations of bacteria are observed within, or expected to enter, the main branch of the West Branch Brandywine Creek. Biologic sources (for example, waterfowl) were noted where applicable; however, no specific study of biologic sources (such as bacterial source tracking) was conducted. Data indicated that specific bacterial populations within fluvial sediments could be related to specific particle-size ranges. This relation is likely the result of the reduced porosity and permeability associated with finer sediments and the ability of specific bacteria to tolerate particular environments. Escherichia coli (E. coli) showed a higher median concentration (2,160 colonies per gram of saturated sediment) in the 0.125 to 0.5-millimeter size range of natural sediments than in other ranges, and enterococcus bacteria showed a higher median concentration (61,830 colonies per gram of saturated sediment) in the 0.062 to 0.25-millimeter size range of natural sediments than in other ranges. There were insufficient data to assess the particle-size relation to fecal coliform bacteria and (or) fecal streptococcus bacteria. Climatic conditions were shown to affect bacteria concentrations in both the water column and fluvial sediments. Drought conditions in 2002 resulted in lower overall bacteria concentrations than the more typically wet year of 2003. E. coli concentrations in fluvial sediment along the Coatesville study reach in 2002 had a median concentration of 92 colonies per gram of saturated sediment; in 2003, the median concentration had risen to 4,752 colonies per gram of saturated sediment. Symbiotic relations between bacteria and aquatic growth were likely responsible for increased bacteria concentrations observed within an impoundment area on the Coatesville study reach. This reach showed evidence of elevated aquatic growth and sharp increases in E. coli concentrations from upstream to downstream through the impoundment area in both 2002 and 2003. In 2003, E. coli concentrations within the waters column increased from 940 colonies per 100 milliliters upstream to 6,000 colonies per 100 milliliters at the dam crest. Given that these bacteria likely resulted from natural bacterial regrowth, the use of E. coli as an indicator of fecal contamination was severely impaired. Variable environmental conditions along the West Branch Brandywine Creek made the common field-chemical parameters of specific conductance, temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen ineffective and (or) impossible to use for the determination of inputs of fecal contamination. Extreme variations in chemical gradients commonly were related to the urban/industrial signature of the watershed. For example, during base-flow sampling in 2002, specific-conductance values exceeding 1,000 microsiemens per centimeter observed in effluent from a local steel mill. This effluent raised the specific conductance within the West Branch Brandywine from just above 200 microsiemens per centimeter upstream from the outfall to just below 500 microsiemens per centimeter downstream from the outfall. These chemical gradients also, likely, had an effect on the initial colonization of bacteria, the formation of biofilms, and the persistence of certain types of bacteria along the study reach. Data collected in 2003 indicated that nutrients increased during both base-flow and stormflow conditions along the Coatesville study reach. For example, during base-flow sampling in 2003, 20 pounds of phosphorus was shown to enter the West Branch Brandywine Creek along the Coatesville study reach. The largest contributors to this base-flow nutrient load were likely two wastewater-treatment facilities adjacent to the study reach. During stormflow sampling in 2003, 480 pounds of phosphorus was shown to enter the West Branch Brandywine Creek along the Coatesville study reach. Data, along with other research, indicated the largest contributor to this stormflow nutrient load was likely remobilized sediment originating from a large dam impoundment. These elevated nutrient concentrations were considered sufficient to promote accelerated aquatic growth along the reach. Data collected in 2003 showed that wastewater constituents entered the West Branch Brandywine Creek largely from urban storm-sewer systems. Samples from the primary storm sewer for the city of Coatesville had detections for 20 of 69 wastewater constituents. These constituents included both strong and weak indicators of fecal contamination and generally indicated the storm-sewer system along the Coatesville study reach was a likely source of fecal-indicator bacteria and fecal contamination under base-flow conditions. By comparison, 5 constituents were detected in samples from the upstream end of the reach, and 10 constituents were detected in samples from the downstream end of the reach. During stormflow, numbers of detections were similar along the entire length of the study reach-five in samples from the upstream end, eight in samples from the center of the reach, and seven in samples from the downstream end of the reach. These data indicate that point sources (such as culverts and pipes, septic systems, and wastewater-treatment facilities) are not likely the origin of bacteria contamination during stormflow. The bacteria concentrations observed during stormflow events probably result from remobilized sessile bacteria stored within fluvial sediments. In this case, these bacteria should not be considered indicators of current fecal contamination. Impervious surfaces were found to increase bacteria concentrations along the West Branch Brandywine Creek because contaminated runoff from impervious areas generally flows into, and is concentrated within, the confines of the local storm-sewer system. During 2002, storm-sewer outfalls draining impervious areas were associated with all major locations of elevated bacterial concentrations (greater than 1,200 colonies per gram of saturated sediment) in fluvial sediments. During 2003, wetter conditions and overall bacteria concentrations higher than in 2002 resulted in point sources of bacterial contamination becoming less pronounced; however, the storm-sewer system, draining adjacent impervious areas, was still observed to be the primary source of bacteria along the reach. Where stormwater and (or) other runoff from these areas was allowed to infiltrate and (or) flow through wetland and riparian buffers, bacteria concentrations were not observed to be elevated above background levels commonly observed throughout similar areas of the same reach. Two run-of-the-river dams along the Coatesville study reach were evaluated for their effects on observed bacterial concentrations. These dams were shown to have greater or lesser effects on bacterial concentrations depending on the size of the structure and the capacity of the structure to impede flows. The smaller upstream dam had an approximate height of 3 feet and showed little observed effect on measured turbidity values; these data indicated that the dam did not effectively impede the flow of water or sediment within the West Branch Brandywine Creek. Consequently, this small dam did not show any observed effect on bacterial concentrations either upstream or downstream of the structure. The larger dam, near the middle of the reach, had an approximate height of 20 feet and showed greater effects on both turbidity and bacteria concentrations. The capacity of the larger dam to impede flows, combined with nutrients entering the reach, resulted in increased biologic activity throughout the impoundment area. Within this larger impoundment, enterococcus bacteria populations were observed to decrease sharply and E. coli bacteria populations were observed to increase sharply as flow approached the dam crest. All bacteria levels were then observed to drop to background levels, in both the water column and fluvial sediment, immediately downstream from the dam crest. Additional study is required to determine the cause for this rapid die off. Turbidity was assessed as a potential surrogate for E. coli bacteria. Regression analysis indicated higher turbidity levels usually can indicate higher concentrations of bacteria (R2 = 0.67), but the relation was too sporadic on the West Branch Brandywine Creek to use turbidity as a surrogate for estimated bacteria concentrations. Evaluation of data from individual base-flow and stormflow events resulted in variable and generally poor statistical relations between E. coli bacteria and turbidity (R2 values ranged from 0.02 to 0.94). Sandbag samplers were used in 2003 to determine their suitability for the assessment of fecal contamination. Sandbag samplers rely on the ability of bacteria to attach to surfaces and use the larger sessile bacteria populations instead of the more commonly used planktonic bacteria populations. E. coli bacteria concentrations observed in the sandbag samplers, after 1 week in place, were similar to those found within natural sediments collected concurrently. Enterococcus bacteria concentrations within the same sandbag samplers were not similar, and were generally lower, than those observed within the natural sediments. This discrepancy was likely because sand within the samplers was sieved to a size that was likely too coarse for enterococcus bacteria to persist. Optical-brightener samplers were installed along with each sandbag sampler. Optical brighteners are additives used in common household detergents; therefore, detection of optical brighteners, along with elevated fecal-indicator bacteria concentrations, strongly indicates a link to humans. Positive results for optical brighteners were detected only at the outfalls of two sewage-treatment facilities; because of treatment of the effluent from these facilities, these samples did not have elevated bacteria concentrations. The lack of additional positive results was largely because this method is not sensitive to low concentrations of optical brighteners.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2017

Acetoclastic Methanosaeta are dominant methanogens in organic-rich Antarctic marine sediments

Despite accounting for the majority of sedimentary methane, the physiology and relative abundance of subsurface methanogens remain poorly understood. We combined intact polar lipid and metagenome techniques to better constrain the presence and functions of methanogens within the highly reducing, organic-rich sediments of Antarctica’s Adélie Basin. The assembly of metagenomic sequence data identified phylogenic and functional marker genes of methanogens and generated the first Methanosaeta sp. genome from a deep subsurface sedimentary environment. Based on structural and isotopic measurements, glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers with diglycosyl phosphatidylglycerol head groups were classified as biomarkers for active methanogens. The stable carbon isotope (δ 13 C) values of these biomarkers and the Methanosaeta partial genome suggest that these organisms are acetoclastic methanogens and represent a relatively small (0.2%) but active population. Metagenomic and lipid analyses suggest that Thaumarchaeota and heterotrophic bacteria co-exist with Methanosaeta and together contribute to increasing concentrations and δ 13 C values of dissolved inorganic carbon with depth. This study presents the first functional insights of deep subsurface Methanosaeta organisms and highlights their role in methane production and overall carbon cycling within sedimentary environments.

ISME Journal↗

USGS2023

Evaluating management alternatives for Wyoming elk feedgrounds in consideration of chronic wasting disease

Executive Summary The authors used decision and modeling analyses to evaluate management alternatives for a decision on whether to permit Cervus canadensis (elk) feeding on two sites on Bridger-Teton National Forest, Dell Creek and Forest Park. Supplemental feeding of elk could increase the transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) locally and disease spread regionally, potentially impacting elk populations over time with wider implications for Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) populations and hunting, tourism, and regional revenue. Supplemental feeding is thought to improve overwinter elk survival and reduce the commingling of elk with cattle during months when brucellosis transmission risk is highest. We worked with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service to identify their fundamental objectives and associated performance metrics related to this feedground decision. We then developed disease and habitat selection models to quantify the effect of four management alternatives on select performance metrics. The four alternatives were to continue to permit feeding, phaseout permits to feed in three years, permit feeding on an emergency basis, or stop permitting feeding. In this report, we present methods and summarized results on disease and habitat selection models and summaries of other performance metrics analyzed by BIO-WEST, Inc. and Cirrus Ecological Solutions as part of an Environmental Impact Statement. Data from Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) supported the assumption that supplemental elk feeding allows for larger elk populations in a region. We documented that herd units (HU) without feedgrounds had 23 percent lower densities of elk per area of winter range when compared against HUs with feedgrounds, after accounting for differences in sightability of elk during counts on and off feedgrounds. Thus, throughout our analyses, we assumed feedground closures would reduce elk carrying capacity resulting in an average decline of previously fed elk population segments by 23 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [11 percent, 35 percent]) by year 20. Most of that decline occurred within the first few years after a feedground ceases to operate. We used a panel of CWD experts to help estimate CWD trans-mission in fed and unfed elk population segments. In aggregate, the expert panel estimated that median values of direct and indirect transmission of CWD are expected to be 1.9 and 4 times higher, respectively, in fed elk populations compared to unfed elk. We used these disease transmission estimates in combination with local elk demographic rates and carrying capacity estimates to project disease and population dynamics. In year 20, we predicted CWD prevalence would increase to 42 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [29 percent, 55 percent]), and 13 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [4 percent, 26 percent]) on average for fed and unfed elk population segments, respectively, given a starting prevalence of 1.6 percent. The prevalence estimates for the unfed elk population segments are in the range of previous observations of CWD in elk in the western United States. The average CWD prevalence from 2016 to 2018 in the unfed elk population of Wind Cave National Park in South Dakota was 18 percent overall but up to 30 percent in some regions (Sargeant and others, 2021). Meanwhile, CWD prevalence in the Iron Mountain and Laramie Peak elk herds in Wyoming from 2016 to 2018 was 14 percent and 7 percent, respectively, despite being present since at least 2002 (Wyoming Game and Fish Department, 2020b). From 2016 to 2020, elk that were fed at Dell Creek and Forest Park constituted on average 12–20 percent of the total elk on their respective HUs. As a result, the differences between management alternatives are modest when considering the closure of only one feedground on a HU. The no feeding alternative for Forest Park resulted in a CWD prevalence of 17 percent (SD = 7 percent) in the Afton HU compared to 20 percent (SD = 7 percent) with continued feeding by year 20. In the Upper Green River HU, no feeding on Dell Creek resulted in a CWD prevalence of 27 percent (SD = 6 percent) compared to 30 percent (SD = 5 percent) with continued feeding. In terms of disease-associated mortality, we predicted the closure of Forest Park and Dell Creek feedgrounds would reduce the total number of CWD mortalities by 9 percent in the Upper Green River HU and 26 percent in the Afton HU during the 20-year timespan. Our spatial analyses predicted that management alternative effects vary by HU as a function of private property and other wildlife winter ranges proximity relative to feedground location. The predicted number of elk abortions on private land, as a proxy for brucellosis risk to cattle, may increase by 8–21 percent in the absence of feeding at Dell Creek and Forest Park. Eight feedgrounds are located on Bridger-Teton National Forest, all of which have permits that have expired or will expire prior to 2028. In addition, WGFD could change their management of feedgrounds given new information; therefore, we also assessed the cumulative effects of continued feeding, phaseout, and no feeding management alternatives across five HUs south of Jackson, Wyoming (Afton HU, Fall Creek HU, Piney HU, Pinedale HU, and Upper Green River HU). These five HUs ranged from about 41 to 85 percent of the elk herd using feedgrounds, which corresponded to a CWD prevalence at year 20 of 23–34 percent if all feedgrounds in those five HUs remained open relative to 12 to 14 percent if all feedgrounds were closed. We predicted feedground closures may result in immediate reductions in population size relative to alternatives that continue feeding (for example, continued feeding and emergency feeding alternatives); however, over longer periods of time, CWD-associated mortality leads to larger population reductions. The no feeding alternative resulted in higher elk population sizes compared to the continued feeding alternative after about 10 years of implementation. Delayed action under a phaseout alternative resulted in increasing the CWD prevalence to 20 percent relative to 12 to 14 percent, on average, without feeding on HUs with a large population of fed elk such as the Upper Green River HU. Summarizing our cumulative results across all five of the analyzed HUs, we predicted continued feeding will lead to fewer elk by year 20 (mean = 8,300, standard deviation [SD] = 740) compared to no feeding at U.S. Department of Agri-culture Forest Service sites (10,700, SD = 890). The closure of all feedgrounds was projected to result in the largest elk populations at year 20 (12,500, SD = 980). No feeding at all sites also resulted in the largest cumulative harvest of 57,700 (SD = 2,600) compared to 51,100 (SD = 3,800) for continued feeding at all current feedground sites on the five HUs. Continued feeding also resulted in the lowest brucellosis costs to producers ($194,600, SD = $11,500) compared to no feeding on all feedgrounds ($243,000, SD = $13,700). Assuming moderate reductions in hunter interest because of increasing CWD prevalence in elk, we predicted that no feeding resulted in regional revenues generated by hunting activities of $190 million (SD = $10 million) compared to $173 million (SD = $10 million) for continued feeding over the 20-year timeframe. Recent CWD detections in mule deer and elk in Grand Teton National Park has elevated the importance of the cur-rent decision on whether, and how, to permit elk feeding on Dell Creek and Forest Park and the management of the other feedgrounds. Aggressive male harvest has slowed, but not stopped, the increasing prevalence of CWD in mule deer (Conner and others, 2021). It is unclear whether harvest management can be an effective tool to slow the spread of CWD in elk. There are also no effective treatments or vaccines for CWD, and it is unlikely that any will be developed that can be easily deployed in the near future. Thus, reducing artificial aggregations is one of the few management approaches suggested by the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (Almberg and others, 2017). Future surveillance and monitoring can be designed to resolve uncertainties that can improve future decision-making. If feedgrounds close, research could quantify elk population reductions in the absence of feeding, the redistribution of fed elk to other places, or the consequences of elk movement on private property. If feedgrounds remain open, research could assess how rapidly CWD spreads in artificial aggregations of elk; however, surveillance programs would need to be designed with sufficient power to detect initial changes of CWD prevalence. Delaying action on feedground management was projected to be costly. Results of the phaseout alternative relative to the no feeding alternative suggested a 3-year delay was enough for substantial long-term changes in CWD prevalence. The long-term persistence of infectious CWD prions in the environment suggests that feedground management decisions may have long-lasting consequences. Our results indicated tradeoffs in the ability of a management agency to achieve all their objectives, and all management alternatives resulted in significant reductions in elk population size. This report contains the foundational elements for formal decision analysis methods, which can be implemented to help decision makers transparently evaluate the consequences of decision alternatives and identify the set of actions that best achieve agency and stakeholder priorities.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Forest density intensifies the importance of snowpack to growth in water-limited pine forests

Warming climate and resulting declines in seasonal snowpack have been associated with drought stress and tree mortality in seasonally snow‐covered watersheds worldwide. Meanwhile, increasing forest density has further exacerbated drought stress due to intensified tree‐tree competition. Using a uniquely detailed dataset of population‐level forest growth (n=2495 sampled trees), we examined how inter‐annual variability in growth relates to snow volume across a range of forest densities (e.g., competitive environments) in sites spanning a broad aridity gradient across the United States. Forest growth was positively related to snowpack in water‐limited forests located at low latitude, and this relationship was intensified by forest density. However, forest growth was negatively related to snowpack in a higher latitude more energy‐limited forest, and this relationship did not interact with forest density. Future reductions in snowpack may have contrasting consequences, as growth may respond positively in energy‐limited forests and negatively in water‐limited forests; however, these declines may be mitigated by reducing stand density through forest thinning.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2021

Enigmatic near‐extirpation in a boreal toad metapopulation in northwestern Montana

North America's protected lands harbor biodiversity and provide habitats where species threatened by a variety of stressors in other environments can thrive. Yet disease, climate change, and other threats are not limited by land management boundaries and can interact with conditions within protected landscapes to affect sensitive populations. We examined the population dynamics of a boreal toad ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) metapopulation at a wildlife refuge in northwestern Montana, USA, over a 16‐year period (2003–2018). We used robust design capture‐recapture models to estimate male population size, recruitment, and apparent survival over time and in relation to the amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ). We estimated female population size in years with sufficient captures. Finally, we examined trends in male and female toad body size and condition. We found no evidence of an effect of disease or time on male toad survival but detected a strong negative trend in recruitment of new males to the population. Estimates of male and female abundance decreased over time. Body size of males and females was inversely related to estimated population size, consistent with reduced recruitment to replace adults, but body condition of adult males was only weakly associated with abundance. Together, these results describe the demography of a near‐extirpation event, and point to dramatic decreases in the recruitment of new individuals to the breeding population as the cause of this decline. We surmise that processes related to the restoration of historical hydrology within the refuge adversely affected amphibian breeding habitat, and that these changes interacted with disease, life history, and other factors to restrict the recruitment of new individuals to the breeding population over time. Our results point to challenges in understanding and predicting factors that influence population change and highlight that current metrics for assessing population status can have limited predictive ability. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Montana↗

USGS2016

Theory and application of semiochemicals in nuisance fish control

Controlling unwanted, or nuisance, fishes is becoming an increasingly urgent issue with few obvious solutions. Because fish rely heavily on semiochemicals, or chemical compounds that convey information between and within species, to mediate aspects of their life histories, these compounds are increasingly being considered as an option to help control wild fish. Possible uses of semiochemicals include measuring their presence in water to estimate population size, adding them to traps to count or remove specific species of fish, adding them to waterways to manipulate large-scale movement patterns, and saturating the environment with synthesized semiochemicals to disrupt responses to the natural cue. These applications may be especially appropriate for pheromones, chemical signals that pass between members of same species and which also have extreme specificity and potency. Alarm cues, compounds released by injured fish, and cues released by potential predators also could function as repellents and be especially useful if paired with pheromonal attractants in “push-pull” configurations. Approximately half a dozen attractive pheromones now have been partially identified in fish, and those for the sea lamprey and the common carp have been tested in the field with modest success. Alarm and predator cues for sea lamprey also have been tested in the laboratory and field with some success. Success has been hampered by our incomplete understanding of chemical identity, a lack of synthesized compounds, the fact that laboratory bioassays do not always reflect natural environments, and the relative difficulty of conducting trials on wild fishes because of short field seasons and regulatory requirements. Nevertheless, workers continue efforts to identify pheromones because of the great potential elucidated by insect control and the fact that few tools are available to control nuisance fish. Approaches developed for nuisance fish also could be applied to valued fishes, which suffer from a lack of powerful management tools.

Journal of Chemical Ecology↗

USGS2021

Invaders from islands: Thermal matching, potential or flexibility?

Native-range thermal constraints may not reflect the geographical distributions of species introduced from native island ranges in part due to rapid physiological adaptation in species introduced to new environments. Correlative ecological niche models may thus underestimate potential invasive distributions of species from islands. The northern curly-tailed lizard ( Leiocephalus carinatus ) is established in Florida, including populations north of its native range. Competing hypotheses may explain this distribution: Thermal Matching (distribution reflects thermal conditions of the native range), Thermal Potential (species tolerates thermal extremes absent in the native range) and/or Thermal Flexibility (thermal tolerance reflects local thermal extremes). We rejected the Thermal Matching hypothesis by comparing ecological niche models developed from native vs. native plus invasive distributions; L. carinatus exists in areas of low suitability in Florida as predicted by the native-distribution model. We then compared critical thermal limits of L. carinatus from two non-native populations to evaluate the Thermal Potential and Flexibility hypotheses: one matching native range latitudes, and another 160 km north of the native range that experiences more frequent cold weather events. Critical thermal minima in the northern population were lower than in the south, supporting the Thermal Flexibility hypothesis, whereas critical thermal maxima did not differ.

Florida↗

USGS2013

Challenge theme 3: Protecting the environment and safeguarding human health: Chapter 5 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Many of the diverse, fragile ecosystems of the United States–Mexican border region are reaching unsustainable levels because of rapid population growth and changes in land use. Water shortages and pollution, poor air quality, increased soil salinities, and pesticides and heavy metal contaminants are some of the many stressors that are degrading the quality of life in the Borderlands. Lack of water treatment and wastewater infrastructure on both sides of the United States–Mexican border contributes to elevated rates of various communicable diseases most commonly found in developing countries: tuberculosis, intestinal infections, and hepatitis. Chronic diseases (diabetes, cancer, and heart disease) also prevail at high rates along the border, resembling trends observed in developed countries. In addition, the subtropical climate of the Borderlands is particularly suited for vectors of tropical diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

USGS2008

Weather and Climate Monitoring Protocol, Channel Islands National Park, California

Weather and climate are strong drivers of population dynamics, plant and animal spatial distributions, community interactions, and ecosystem states. Information on local weather and climate is crucial in interpreting trends and patterns in the natural environment for resource management, research, and visitor enjoyment. This document describes the weather and climate monitoring program at the Channel Islands National Park (fig. 1), initiated in the 1990s. Manual and automated stations, which continue to evolve as technology changes, are being used for this program. The document reviews the history of weather data collection on each of the five Channel Islands National Park islands, presents program administrative structure, and provides an overview of procedures for data collection, archival, retrieval, and reporting. This program overview is accompanied by the 'Channel Islands National Park Remote Automated Weather Station Field Handbook' and the 'Channel Islands National Park Ranger Weather Station Field Handbook'. These Handbooks are maintained separately at the Channel Island National Park as 'live documents' that are updated as needed to provide a current working manual of weather and climate monitoring procedures. They are available on request from the Weather Program Manager (Channel Islands National Park, 1901 Spinnaker Dr., Ventura, CA 93001; 805.658.5700). The two Field Handbooks describe in detail protocols for managing the four remote automated weather stations (RAWS) and the seven manual Ranger Weather Stations on the islands, including standard operating procedures for equipment maintenance and calibration; manufacturer operating manuals; data retrieval and archiving; metada collection and archival; and local, agency, and vendor contracts.

Techniques and Methods↗