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Methods used to estimate daily streamflow and water availability in the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator version 2.0

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator is a decision support tool that provides estimates of daily unaltered streamflow, water-use-adjusted streamflow, and water availability for ungaged, user-defined basins in Massachusetts. Daily streamflow at the ungaged site is estimated for unaltered (no water use) and water-use scenarios. The procedure for estimating streamflow was developed previously and has been implemented with minor changes and updated water-use data in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. Unaltered streamflow at selected exceedance probabilities is estimated by previously published regression equations. Streamflow is interpolated between the regressed quantiles to produce a continuous flow duration curve. A daily streamflow time series is produced for the ungaged site by relating the estimated flow duration curve at the ungaged site to a flow duration curve at a gaged reference site and then transferring the dates from the reference site to the ungaged site. Minor refinements were made to the previously published methods to estimate unaltered and water-use-adjusted streamflow, including a procedure to enforce the monotonic structure of the regression-based unaltered flow quantiles, improvements to the interpolation method used for computing the estimated flow duration curve, and updates to the methods used to compute time-lagged stream alterations from groundwater pumping or discharges. Additionally, a procedure was developed to estimate prediction intervals for daily and monthly unregulated streamflow time series at an ungaged site. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using water-use data provided by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection. Available water-use data included monthly withdrawal and wastewater discharge volumes from 2010 to 2014 for surface-water and groundwater sources. Water-use-adjusted streamflow represents the potential effect of current water use on natural streamflow in the basin over the range of historical hydrologic conditions. Georeferenced water withdrawal and discharge volumes were incorporated into the Massachusetts StreamStats web application for use in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. To compute water-use-adjusted streamflow, mean daily withdrawals and discharges within a user-defined basin are subtracted and added to the unaltered time series, respectively. Surface-water volumes are applied directly to the equation. Time-lagged streamflow alterations from groundwater withdrawal or wastewater discharge sources are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models in Massachusetts. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator was updated to version 2.0 to improve software stability and usability. The version 2.0 software application was developed in Microsoft Access with a graphical user interface. All geoprocessing steps, including basin delineation and compilation of basin characteristics and water use within the basin, were completed in the Massachusetts StreamStats web application and exported for use by the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator version 2.0.

Massachusetts↗

Differentiable modelling to unify machine learning and physical models for geosciences

Process-based modelling offers interpretability and physical consistency in many domains of geosciences but struggles to leverage large datasets efficiently. Machine-learning methods, especially deep networks, have strong predictive skills yet are unable to answer specific scientific questions. In this Perspective, we explore differentiable modelling as a pathway to dissolve the perceived barrier between process-based modelling and machine learning in the geosciences and demonstrate its potential with examples from hydrological modelling. ‘Differentiable’ refers to accurately and efficiently calculating gradients with respect to model variables or parameters, enabling the discovery of high-dimensional unknown relationships. Differentiable modelling involves connecting (flexible amounts of) prior physical knowledge to neural networks, pushing the boundary of physics-informed machine learning. It offers better interpretability, generalizability, and extrapolation capabilities than purely data-driven machine learning, achieving a similar level of accuracy while requiring less training data. Additionally, the performance and efficiency of differentiable models scale well with increasing data volumes. Under data-scarce scenarios, differentiable models have outperformed machine-learning models in producing short-term dynamics and decadal-scale trends owing to the imposed physical constraints. Differentiable modelling approaches are primed to enable geoscientists to ask questions, test hypotheses, and discover unrecognized physical relationships. Future work should address computational challenges, reduce uncertainty, and verify the physical significance of outputs.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗

Network global navigation satellite system survey to harmonize water-surface elevation data for the Rainy River Basin

Continuously recording water-level streamgages in Rainy Lake and Namakan Reservoir are used to regulate water levels according to rule curves established in 2000 by the International Joint Commission; however, water levels at streamgages were referenced to a variety of vertical datums, confounding efforts to model the flow of water through the system, regulate water levels during periods of high inflow, and evaluate the effectiveness of the rule curves. In October 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada, International Joint Commission, and National Park Service began a joint field study with the goal of obtaining precise elevations referenced to a uniform vertical datum for all reference marks used to set water levels at streamgages throughout Rainy Lake and Namakan Reservoir. This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Natural Resources Canada, International Joint Commission, and National Park Service. Three field crews deployed Global Navigation Satellite System receivers statically over 16 reference marks colocated with active and discontinued water-level streamgages throughout Rainy River, Rainy Lake, Namakan Reservoir, and select tributaries of Rainy Lake and Namakan Reservoir. A Global Navigation Satellite System receiver also was deployed statically over a National Geodetic Survey cooperative base network control station for use as a quality-control reference mark. Satellite data were collected simultaneously during a 5-day period and processed independently by the U.S. Geological Survey and Natural Resources Canada to obtain accurate positioning and elevations for the 17 surveyed reference marks. Processed satellite data were used to convert published water levels to elevations above sea level referenced to the Canadian Geodetic Vertical Datum of 2013 in order to compare water-surface elevations referenced to a uniform vertical datum throughout the study area. In this report, an “offset” refers to the correction applied to published data from a particular streamgage to produce elevation data referenced to a specified vertical datum. Offsets were applied to water-level data from surveyed streamgages to further evaluate the accuracy and utility of updated reference mark elevations presented in this report. Daily mean water levels from active streamgages surveyed in this study were converted to water-surface elevations referenced to the Canadian Geodetic Vertical Datum of 2013. Graphical comparisons of water-surface elevations for streamgages in Namakan Reservoir, Rainy Lake, and selected rivers are presented (referencing the Canadian Geodetic Vertical Datum of 2013). Offsets presented in this report can be used in the evaluation of rule curves and in flood damage curves that fully assess the benefits of one regulation approach over another. In addition, offsets may be used to calibrate hydraulic models developed for four narrows that connect lakes of Namakan Reservoir, refine digital elevation models, and support modeling studies designed to assess the effects of rule curves on aquatic vegetation, benthic invertebrates, northern pike, and walleye.

Minnesota, Ontario↗

Compilation of Regional Ground-Water Divides for Principal Aquifers Corresponding to the Great Lakes Basin, United States

A compilation of regional ground-water divides for the five principal aquifers corresponding to the Great Lakes Basin within the United States is presented. The principal aquifers (or aquifer systems) are the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system, Silurian-Devonian aquifers, Mississippian aquifers, Pennsylvanian aquifers, and the surficial aquifer system. The regional ground-water divides mark the boundary between ground-water flow that discharges to the Great Lakes or their tributaries and ground-water flow that discharges to other major surface-water bodies, such as the Mississippi River. Multicounty to multistate (regional) hydrologic studies of the five principal aquifers were reviewed to determine whether adequate data, such as potentiometric surfaces or ground-water divides, were available from which ground-water flow directions or ground-water-divide locations could be derived. Examination of regional studies indicate that the regional ground-water divides for the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system and Silurian-Devonian aquifers have changed over time and differ from the surface-water divides in some areas. These differences can be attributed to either pumping or natural processes. The limited information on the shallow Mississippian and Pennsylvanian bedrock aquifers indicate that these aquifers and the surficial aquifer system act as one hydrostratigraphic unit and that downdip flow is insignificant. Generally, in the Mississippian and Pennsylvanian aquifers, regional ground-water divides are similar to regional surface-water divides. Previous studies of the regional ground-water divide of the surficial aquifer system depict the regional ground-water divide as generally following the regional surface-water divide. Because studies commonly focus on areas where ground-water use from an aquifer system is concentrated, the regional ground-water divides are not known in large, unstudied parts of some of these aquifer systems. A composite ground-water divide for the region was generated and is estimated to generally follow the surface-water divide, except in areas where anthropogenic or natural factors affect its position.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water-resources activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in Texas; fiscal years 1982-84

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was established by an act of Congress on March 3, 1879, to provide a permanent Federal agency to conduct the systematic and scientific classification of the public lands, and examination of the geological structure, mineral resources, and products of national domain. An integral part of that original mission includes publishing and disseminating the earth-science information needed to understand, to plan the use of, and to manage the Nation's energy, land, mineral, and water resources. Since 1879, the research and fact-finding role of the USGS has grown and been modified to meet the changing needs of the Nation it serves. As part of that evolution, the USGS has become the Federal Government's largest earth-science research agency, the Nation's largest civilian mapmaking agency, the primary source of data on the Nation's surface- and ground-water resources, and the employer of the largest number of professional earth scientists. Today's programs serve a diversity of needs and users. Programs include: Conducting detailed assessments of the energy and mineral potential of the Nation's land and offshore areas. Investigating and issuing warnings of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and other geologic and hydrologic hazards. Conducting research on the geologic structure of the Nation. Studying the geologic features, structure, processes, and history of the other planets of our solar system. Conducting topographic surveys of the Nation and preparing topographic and thematic maps and related cartographic products. Developing and producing digital cartographic data bases and products. Collecting data on a routine basis to determine the quantity, quality, and use of surface and ground water. Conducting water-resources appraisals in order to describe the consequences of alternative plans for developing land and water resources. Conducting research in hydraulics and hydrology and coordinating all Federal water-data acquisition. Using remotely sensed data to develop new cartographic, geologic, and hydrologic research techniques for natural resources planning and management. Providing earth-science information through an extensive publications program and a network of public access points. Along with its continuing commitment to meet the growing and changing earthscience information needs of the Nation, the USGS remains dedicated to its original mission to collect, analyze, interpret, publish, and disseminate information about the natural resources of the Nation providing "earth science in the public service."

Open-File Report↗

Linear regression model documentation for computing water-quality constituent concentrations using continuous real-time water-quality data for the Republican River, Clay Center, Kansas, July 2018 through March 2021

The Republican River is the primary inflow to Milford Lake and drains areas of Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado. Milford Lake has been listed as impaired and designated hypereutrophic by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment because of excessive nutrient loading. Milford Lake had confirmed harmful algal blooms every summer from 2011 through 2017 and in 2020 and 2021. In the lower Republican River drainage basin, the Regional Conservation Partnership Program, administered by the Natural Resources Conservation Service, provides reimbursement to agricultural producers that implement best management practices intended to decrease sediment and nutrient runoff and loading into Milford Lake. Sediment and nutrient loads could potentially be driving factors in the development of harmful algal blooms in the reservoir. Since July 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Water Office, has collected continuous and discrete water-quality data at the Republican River at Clay Center, Kansas, streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 06856600), which is about 15 river miles upstream from Milford Lake. This report documents site-specific regression models for the computation of continuous concentrations of suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total carbon developed using continuous and discrete data collected from July 24, 2018, the date of continuous water-quality monitor installation, through March 31, 2021. The objective of this study is to characterize sediment and nutrient transport in the Milford Lake drainage basin before, during, and after best management practice implementation using the models described in this report. The explanatory variable turbidity explained a high amount (72–96 percent) of the variance in suspended-sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total carbon concentrations. Statistical plots for the four selected models showed the desired normality and homoscedasticity in residuals, and model standard error ratios indicated that recomputing each selected model after removing a randomly selected 10 percent of the data did not substantially change model coefficients.

Kansas↗

Large-scale variation in density of an aquatic ecosystem indicator species

Monitoring indicator species is a pragmatic approach to natural resource assessments, especially when the link between the indicator species and ecosystem state is well justified. However, conducting ecosystem assessments over representative spatial scales that are insensitive to local heterogeneity is challenging. We examine the link between polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination and population density of an aquatic habitat specialist over a large spatial scale using non-invasive genetic spatial capture-recapture. Using American mink (Neovison vison), a predatory mammal and an indicator of aquatic ecosystems, we compared estimates of density in two major river systems, one with extremely high levels of PCB contamination (Hudson River), and a hydrologically independent river with lower PCB levels (Mohawk River). Our work supports the hypothesis that the mink densities are substantially (1.64-1.67 times) lower in the contaminated river system. We demonstrate the value of coupling the indicator species concept with well-conceived and spatially representative monitoring protocols. PCBs have demonstrable detrimental effects on aquatic ecosystems, including mink, and these effects are likely to be profound and long-lasting, manifesting as population-level impacts. Through integrating non-invasive data collection, genetic analysis, and spatial capture-recapture methods, we present a monitoring framework for generating robust density estimates across large spatial scales.

New York↗

Vision for a worldwide fluvial-sediment information network

The nations of the world suffer both from the deleterious effects of some natural and human-altered fluxes of fluvial sediment and a lack of consistent and reliable information on the temporal and spatial occurrence of fluvial sediments. Decades ago, this difficulty was unavoidable due to a lack of understanding of the magnitude and scope of environmental influences exerted by fluvial sediment coupled with a dearth of tools for monitoring and studying the data. Such is no longer the case. Fluvial sediment has a broad influence on the environment and humanity. Data needs that were once limited primarily to reservoir and channel maintenance now include issues associated with public water supply; contaminated sediment management; productivity of agricultural lands; stream restoration and watershed health; in-stream biotic stability; post-wildfire channel morphology; dam decommissioning, rehabilitation, or removal; and legal requirements for sediment management (Gray and Glysson, 2005). The adverse effects of poorly managed or unmanaged sediment movement related to these and other issues are well-known qualitatively, and in some cases quantitatively. For example, physical, chemical, and biological damages attributable to fluvial sediment in North America alone are now estimated to range between $20 billion and $50 billion annually (Pimental and others, 1995; Osterkamp and others, 1998; 2004). Capabilities for monitoring, analyzing, storing, and sharing fluvial-sediment data have been developed and, in many cases, are sufficiently mature for consideration for global utilization. Hence, there is not only a strong and expanding need for a global effort to gauge and understand fluvial-sediment characteristics and processes better, but the knowledge and tools to achieve these ends are largely available and ready for their applicability to be evaluated. Given the increasing importance of erosion and sediment processes for water-resources management, an International Sedimentation Initiative (ISI, 2007a), under the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization’s International Hydrologic Programme (IHP, 2007) was adopted in 2004. The ISI, the focus of which is on sustainable water-resources management on the global scale, features six major activities and projects, which are listed as part of the section entitled, “Relation of the WoFSIN concept to the thrusts of the International Sedimentation Initiative,” that precedes the “Conclusions” section of this paper. Based on the need for more, and more consistent and reliable fluvial-sediment information and on the existence of the ISI and other international and national sediment programs, we envision the need for a Worldwide Fluvial Sediment-Information Network (WoFSIN) with a focus on data acquisition, storage, and dissemination globally. Envisioned components of a WoFSIN, administered largely via the Internet and relying mostly on the benefits derived from existing resources and programs, follow that summary. The goal of the WoFSIN is to maximize the availability and usefulness of the world’s historical and current fluvial-sediment and ancillary data through collaboration with existing programs so as to require few additional resources in the long-term. Thus, the WoFSIN concept was developed recognizing that informed resource management is predicated on the availability of adequate and reliable information. The WoFSIN is described in the ensuing sections in stand-alone fashion, followed by a section that describes the complementary aspects of the WoFSIN and the International Sediment Initiative. Thus, our first objective is to describe the fundamental components of a WoFSIN. Our second objective is to identify overlap or gaps between the WoFSIN and ISI concepts that might be useful in refining the ISI’s ability to meet its global mission to develop decision support for sediment management at the global scale more fully, cost-effectively, and (or) with enhanced quality.

Conference Paper↗

Using the precipitation-runoff modeling system to predict seasonal water availability in the upper Klamath River basin, Oregon and California

Accurate forecasts of the streamflow expected during late spring and summer in the Upper Klamath River Basin in southern-central Oregon and northern California are used by water management agencies to balance water allocations for agriculture, aquatic habitat, and hydropower-production needs. Streamflow forecasts are also used by irrigation farmers for planning. The forecasts are typically made twice a month starting as early in the water year as December. Multiple regression equations relating real-time snowpack and precipitation conditions to seasonal streamflow volumes have been used for many years in forecasting. However, with warming temperature trends and lower snowpack, such forecasts based on historical data could become less reliable in the future. If the timing and relation of snowpack and precipitation are outside of the range of the historical data used to create the equations, the forecasts become extrapolations. Statistical forecast equations are also limited in their ability to forecast streamflow in groundwater-dominated basins having inter-annual lag. As an additional method for seasonal streamflow forecasting, a physical-process-based hydrologic model employing the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was developed in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for the Upper Klamath Basin in this study. The model was calibrated for the portion of the basin draining into Upper Klamath Lake. PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. It simulates daily streamflow, snow, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, surface-water, and groundwater processes within the basin. A model calibration and validation period for water years 2000–15 and water years 1984–99, respectively, was used. The model was calibrated and validated using measured streamflow, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation data sets. Interpolated daily precipitation and air temperature data from 32 meteorological stations within and surrounding the Upper Klamath Basin were used as model input. Performance statistics, used to evaluate how well simulated daily streamflow matched with measured streamflow included percent bias, percent relative error, and root-mean-square error. The statistics were computed annually, monthly, for October–March, and for April–September. With the exception of the October–March period, percent bias statistics were all within plus or minus 5-percent for both the calibration and validation periods. Limitations to using the model are error in the precipitation and air temperature input time series data, which include measurement error and error in the spatial interpolation method. Other errors include measured daily streamflow data, which were adjusted for consumptive use losses to make them more closely resemble natural streamflow for calibration. The model developed for the Upper Klamath Basin can be used to forecast streamflow from the Sprague and Williamson River Basins and inflow to Upper Klamath Lake. Reliable forecasts at these locations are needed for managing water for irrigation, ecosystem health, and power production. Using the models in a forecast application requires assembling model input data sets of anticipated daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature for the period after the date the forecast is made and the end of the forecasted period. These climate data sets can be based on historical or synthetic records, at the discretion of the forecaster. With the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method, a suite of streamflow scenarios is simulated using multiple years of climate data as model input. The forecasted streamflow is determined from knowing the exceedance probabilities of the simulated streamflows. In this study, the model and the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method were used to forecast the volume of inflow to Upper Klamath Lake for a 6-month period from April 1, 2015, to September 30, 2015, using a range of climate data sets based on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) criteria. Because 2015 was a warm phase ENSO period, climate data for 10 warm phase ENSO years from 1980 to 2010 were used as input to the model. The simulated April–September 2015 UKL inflow volume based on measured 2015 climate data was 482,000 acre-feet, which was very close to the 50th percent exceedance probability computed from 10 simulated scenarios that used warm phase ENSO climate input data from 1980–2010.

California, Oregon↗

Linear regression model documentation for computing water-quality constituent concentrations or densities using continuous real-time water-quality data for the Kansas River above Topeka Weir at Topeka, Kansas, November 2018 through June 2021

The Kansas River and its associated alluvial aquifer provide drinking water to more than 950,000 people in northeastern Kansas. Water suppliers that rely on the Kansas River as a water-supply source use physical and chemical processes to treat and remove contaminants before public distribution. An early-notification system of changing water-quality conditions allows water suppliers to proactively make decisions that affect water treatment. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Kansas Water Office (funded in part through the Kansas Water Plan), the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, The Nature Conservancy, the City of Lawrence, the City of Manhattan, the City of Olathe, the City of Topeka, WaterOne, and Evergy, began collecting water-quality data at the Kansas River above Topeka Weir at Topeka, Kansas (USGS site 06888990, hereafter referred to as the “Topeka site”), during November 2018 to develop linear regression models that relate continuous in situ water-quality sensor measurements to discretely sampled water-quality constituent concentrations or densities. The addition of the Topeka site expanded an existing water-quality monitoring network, which included the upstream Kansas River at Wamego, Kans., and downstream Kansas River at De Soto, Kans., sites. Linear regression analysis was used to develop models that compute real-time concentrations or densities for total dissolved solids, major ions, hardness as calcium carbonate, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus species), chlorophyll a , total suspended solids, suspended sediment, and Escherichia coli at the Topeka site using data collected during November 2018 through June 2021. Water-quality constituent concentrations or densities computed from the models documented in this report are available at the USGS National Real-Time Water-Quality website (https://nrtwq.usgs.gov), are useful to the public for cultural and recreational purposes, and can be used to guide water-treatment processes, compare conditions with Federal and State water-quality criteria, and characterize changes in Kansas River water-quality conditions through time.

Kansas↗

Present and Reference Concentrations and Yields of Suspended Sediment in Streams in the Great Lakes Region and Adjacent Areas

In-stream suspended sediment and siltation and downstream sedimentation are common problems in surface waters throughout the United States. The most effective way to improve surface waters impaired by sediments is to reduce the contributions from human activities rather than try to reduce loadings from natural sources. Total suspended sediment/solids (TSS) concentration data were obtained from 964 streams in the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy River Basins from 1951 to 2002. These data were used to estimate median concentrations, loads, yields, and volumetrically (flow) weighted (VW) concentrations where streamflow data were available. SPAtial Regression-Tree Analysis (SPARTA) was applied to land-use-adjusted (residualized) TSS data and environmental-characteristic data to determine the natural factors that best described the distribution of median and VW TSS concentrations and yields and to delineate zones with similar natural factors affecting TSS, enabling reference or natural concentrations and yields to be estimated. Soil properties (clay and organic-matter content, erodibility, and permeability), basin slope, and land use (percentage of agriculture) were the factors most strongly related to the distribution of median and VW TSS concentrations. TSS yields were most strongly related to amount of precipitation and the resulting runoff, and secondarily to the factors related to high TSS concentrations. Reference median TSS concentrations ranged from 5 to 26 milligrams per liter (mg/L), reference median annual VW TSS concentrations ranged from 10 to 168 mg/L, and reference TSS yields ranged from about 980 to 90,000 kilograms per square kilometer per year. Independent streams (streams with no overlapping drainage areas) with TSS data were ranked by how much their water quality exceeded reference concentrations and yields. Most streams exceeding reference conditions were in the central part of the study area, where agricultural activities are the most intensive; however, other sites exceeding reference conditions were identified outside of this area. Whether concentrations or yields should be considered in guiding rehabilitation efforts depends on whether in-stream or downstream effects are more important. Although this study attempted to obtain all available water-quality data for the study area, any actual prioritization of sites for remediation would need to rely on more extensive data collection or numerical models that can accurately simulate the effects of various human activities in a range of environmental settings.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Preface: Marine gas hydrate reservoir systems along the eastern continental margin of India: Results of the National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02

The 2015 India National Gas Hydrate Program (NGHP) Expedition 02 was conducted to obtain new information on the occurrence of gas hydrate systems and to advance the understanding of geologic controls on the formation of gas hydrate accumulations in the offshore of India. The ultimate goal of the NGHP effort is to assess the energy resource potential of marine gas hydrates in India. The Guest Editors for this special thematic issue of the Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology (JMPG) have worked with more than 100 scientists and engineers to prepare the 45 individual reports included in this special issue to address the operational and technical contributions of the NGHP-02 Expedition. This thematic issue on natural gas hydrates in the offshore of India is built on the foundation of five previous JMPG thematic issues that focused on the scientific results of other marine gas hydrate expeditions. These foundational contributions include: (1) the “Scientific Results of the 2005 USDOE-Chevron JIP Drilling for Methane Hydrates Objectives in the Gulf of Mexico” (Volume 25, Issue 9, November 2008), (2) the “Resource and Hazard Implications of Gas Hydrates in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Results of the 2009 Joint Industry Project Leg II Drilling Expedition” (Volume 34, Issue 1, June 2012), (3) the “Scientific Results of the Second Gas Hydrate Drilling Expedition in the Ulleung Basin (UBGH2), East Sea of Korea” (Volume 47, November 2013), (4) “Geologic Implications of Gas Hydrates in the Offshore of India: Results of the National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01” (Volume 58, Part A, December 2014), and (5) “Gas Hydrate Drilling in Eastern Nankai” (Volume 66, Part 2, September 2015). The NGHP-02 Expedition was conducted from 03-March- 2015 to 28-July- 2015 off the eastern coast of India. The first two months of the expedition were dedicated to establishing 25 new research sites that featured the drilling of a dedicated downhole logging hole at each site. The next three months of the NGHP-02 Expedition were dedicated to sediment coring and other downhole measurement operations at 10 of the sites established during the expedition’s first phase. The results of downhole logging, coring and formation pressure testing operations during NGHP-02 have confirmed the presence of large, highly concentrated gas hydrate accumulations in coarse-grained, sand-rich depositional systems throughout large portions of the Krishna-Godavari Basin. Post expedition research and reporting efforts included collaborative analysis of the unprecedented number of shipboard acquired data sets and core samples obtained during NGHP-02. The presentation of the scientific results of the NGHP-02 Expedition has culminated in the publication of the NGHP Expedition 02 Scientific Results Volume, which is represented by this Special Issue of the Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology. This Special Issue features a series of four reports that summarize the operational and scientific results of NGHP-02 Expedition that are presented in the 41 technical reports included this Special Issue. The first summary report, “India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02: Operational and Technical Summary,” focuses on reviewing the tools and operational procedures for the NGHP-02 Expedition that led to the acquisition of an unprecedented amount of high-quality downhole logging and core data from numerous pore-filling, fracture-filling, and sediment-displacement type gas hydrate occurrences. The summary report titled “India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Gas Hydrate Systems Along the Eastern Continental Margin of India” documents gas hydrate occurrences discovered during the NGHP-02 Expedition and examines geologic controls on the gas hydrate systems along the Eastern Continental Margin of India.

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

Developing integrated methods to address complex resource and environmental issues

Introduction This circular provides an overview of selected activities that were conducted within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Integrated Methods Development Project, an interdisciplinary project designed to develop new tools and conduct innovative research requiring integration of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and remote-sensing expertise. The project was supported by the USGS Mineral Resources Program, and its products and acquired capabilities have broad applications to missions throughout the USGS and beyond. In addressing challenges associated with understanding the location, quantity, and quality of mineral resources, and in investigating the potential environmental consequences of resource development, a number of field and laboratory capabilities and interpretative methodologies evolved from the project that have applications to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster and hazard assessment, and planetary science. New or improved tools and research findings developed within the project have been applied to other projects and activities. Specifically, geophysical equipment and techniques have been applied to a variety of traditional and nontraditional mineral- and energy-resource studies, military applications, environmental investigations, and applied research activities that involve climate change, mapping techniques, and monitoring capabilities. Diverse applied geochemistry activities provide a process-level understanding of the mobility, chemical speciation, and bioavailability of elements, particularly metals and metalloids, in a variety of environmental settings. Imaging spectroscopy capabilities maintained and developed within the project have been applied to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster assessment, and planetary science. Brief descriptions of capabilities and laboratory facilities and summaries of some applications of project products and research findings are included in this circular. The work helped support the USGS mission to “provide reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life.” Activities within the project include the following: Spanned scales from microscopic to planetary; Demonstrated broad applications across disciplines; Included life-cycle studies of mineral resources; Incorporated specialized areas of expertise in applied geochemistry including mineralogy, hydrogeology, analytical chemistry, aqueous geochemistry, biogeochemistry, microbiology, aquatic toxicology, and public health; and Incorporated specialized areas of expertise in geophysics including magnetics, gravity, radiometrics, electromagnetics, seismic, ground-penetrating radar, borehole radar, and imaging spectroscopy. This circular consists of eight sections that contain summaries of various activities under the project. The eight sections are listed below: Laboratory Facilities and Capabilities, which includes brief descriptions of the various types of laboratories and capabilities used for the project; Method and Software Development, which includes summaries of remote-sensing, geophysical, and mineralogical methods developed or enhanced by the project; Instrument Development, which includes descriptions of geophysical instruments developed under the project; Minerals, Energy, and Climate, which includes summaries of research that applies to mineral or energy resources, environmental processes and monitoring, and carbon sequestration by earth materials; Element Cycling, Toxicity, and Health, which includes summaries of several process-oriented geochemical and biogeochemical studies and health-related research activities; Hydrogeology and Water Quality, which includes descriptions of innovative geophysical, remote-sensing, and geochemical research pertaining to hydrogeology and water-quality applications; Hazards and Disaster Assessment, which includes summaries of research and method development that were applied to natural hazards, human-caused hazards, and disaster assessments; and Databases and Framework Studies, which includes descriptions of fundamental applications of geophysical studies and of the importance of archived data.

Circular↗

A Comparison of Natural and Urban Characteristics and the Development of Urban Intensity Indices Across Six Geographic Settings

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, the effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems have been intensively investigated in six metropolitan areas in the United States. Approximately 30 watersheds in each area, ranging in size from 4 to 560 square kilometers (median is 50 square kilometers), and spanning a development gradient from very low to very high urbanization, were examined near Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh, North Carolina; Denver, Colorado; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Portland, Oregon; and Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin. These six studies are a continuation of three previous studies in Boston, Massachusetts; Birmingham, Alabama; and Salt Lake City, Utah. In each study, geographic information system data for approximately 300 variables were assembled to (a) characterize the environmental settings of the areas and (b) establish a consistent multimetric urban intensity index based on locally important land-cover, infrastructure, and socioeconomic variables. This paper describes the key features of urbanization and the urban intensity index for the study watersheds within each area, how they differ across study areas, and the relation between the environmental setting and the characteristics of urbanization. A number of features of urbanization were identified that correlated very strongly to population density in every study area. Of these, road density had the least variability across diverse geographic settings and most closely matched the multimetric nature of the urban intensity index. A common urban intensity index was derived that ranks watersheds across all six study areas. Differences in local natural settings and urban geography were challenging in (a) identifying consistent urban gradients in individual study areas and (b) creating a common urban intensity index that matched the site scores of the local urban intensity index in all areas. It is intended that the descriptions of the similarities and differences in urbanization and environmental settings across these study areas will provide a foundation for understanding and interpreting the effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems in the studies being conducted as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Low-flow characteristics and regionalization of low-flow characteristics for selected streams in Arkansas

Water use in Arkansas has increased dramatically in recent years. Since 1990, the use of water for all purposes except power generation has increased 53 percent (4,004 cubic feet per second in 1990 to 6,113 cubic feet per second in 2005). The biggest users are agriculture (90 percent), municipal water supply (4 percent) and industrial supply (2 percent). As the population of the State continues to grow, so does the demand for the State’s water resources. The low-flow characteristics of a stream ultimately affect its utilization by humans. Specific information on the low-flow characteristics of streams is essential to State water-management agencies such as the Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality, the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, and the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission when dealing with problems related to irrigation, municipal and industrial water supplies, fish and wildlife conservation, and dilution of waste. Low-flow frequency data are of particular value to management agencies responsible for the development and management of the State’s water resources. This report contains the low-flow characteristics for 70 active continuous-streamflow record gaging stations, 59 inactive continuous-streamflow record stations, and 101 partial-record gaging stations. These characteristics are the annual 7-day, 10-year low flow and the annual 7-day, 2-year low flow, and the seasonal, bimonthly, and monthly 7-day, 10-year low flow for the 129 active and inactive continuous-streamflow record and 101 partial-record gaging stations. Low-flow characteristics were computed on the basis of streamflow data for the period of record through September 2005 for the continuous-streamflow record and partial-record streamflow gaging stations. The low-flow characteristics of these continuous- and partial-record streamflow gaging stations were utilized in a regional regression analysis to produce equations for estimating the annual, seasonal, bimonthly, and monthly (November through April) 7-day, 10-year low flows and the annual 7-day, 2-year low flow for ungaged streams in the western two-thirds of Arkansas.

Arkansas↗

Scenarios for valuing sample information in natural resources

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in natural resource systems, science and management. Sample data are obtained in order to reduce uncertainty, thereby increasing knowledge and improving resource management, but sampling always comes at a cost of some sort. Is that cost worthwhile? Analysis of the value of sample information ( VSI ) addresses this question. In this paper we develop the valuation of sample information in terms of five elements: (a) a system whose attributes are the focus of analysis; (b) a range of management actions that affect the system's status; (c) uncertainty about system status or structure, as characterized by initial (prior) probabilities of possible system states or structures; (d) an experiment or other information source that produces new data points and updated (posterior) probabilities; and (e) a value measure that is a function of the management action taken, conditional on either the system state or structure. We describe five scenarios for analysing the VSI under uncertainty about system structure and state. Scenarios 1–3 comprise analyses of conditional, expected and optimal expected values of sample information. They focus primarily on choice of management adaptations with new information. Scenarios 4 and 5 involve pre-selected management actions, and are useful for comparing designs of data collection rather than for choosing a management action. These last scenarios expand the framework for VSI to include actions that have been selected independently of the updating of uncertainty. We discuss other extensions of VSI analysis, which include spatial applications, hybrid scenarios, applications involving dynamic systems, and a focus on costs rather than net benefits. Value of sample information analysis holds promise in emerging areas of ecology such as ecological forecasting and the use of remote sensing in conservation, where potential new data from models and satellites can be evaluated in advance, thereby allowing more efficient prioritization of scientific efforts. More generally, VSI can contribute to better ecological understanding and more effective management in a wide range of ecological situations.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

Water-resource management monitoring needs, State of Hawai‘i

In cooperation with the State of Hawai‘i Commission on Water Resource Management and in collaboration with the University of Hawaiʻi Water Resources Research Center, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a water-resource monitoring program—a rainfall, surface-water, and groundwater data-collection program—that is required to meet State needs for water-resource assessment, management, and protection in Hawai‘i. Current and foreseeable issues related to water-resource management and climate-change effects guided the evaluation of data-collection sites within the monitoring program. Data-collection sites currently (2018) being operated in Hawai‘i were evaluated, and additional data-collection sites were selected on the basis of their usefulness for characterizing anthropogenic effects on water resources or representing natural conditions. Data-collection strategies consist of a combination of continuous long-term monitoring to evaluate trends and climate-change effects and occasional and periodic intensive monitoring to enhance spatial understanding of hydrologic conditions and to address current issues in priority areas—areas that currently have water-availability issues or are expected to have the greatest socioeconomic or ecological effects because of climate change. Priority areas for rainfall monitoring consist of urban and agricultural lands, areas with high rainfall and high-rainfall gradient, and areas within the trade-wind inversion band. Surface-water priority areas consist of streams with major surface-water diversions, with established interim instream-flow standards, in a surface-water management area, that support water leases, and with uncertainties in hydrogeologic characteristics. Priority areas for groundwater monitoring consist of areas with high withdrawal, declining water levels, reduced recharge, limited alternative sources, and uncertainties in hydrogeologic characteristics. Data-quality objectives for the rainfall, surface-water, and groundwater monitoring programs that describe anticipated uses of the data were established with the goal of producing useful, reliable, and accurate water-resource information of sufficient precision to support decision making. The data-quality objectives also consider quality-assurance and quality-control programs that ensure defensible data. Establishment of common data-quality objectives not only assures comparability of data collected by multiple agencies but also allows data from academic, private, and public organizations to be useful for meeting State monitoring needs, provided the data meet appropriate data-quality objectives and data-accessibility requirements.

Hawaii↗

Proceedings of a Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning Workshop for the Western United States

Recent scientific and ocean policy assessments demonstrate that a fundamental change in our current management system is required to achieve the long-term health of our ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes in order to sustain the services and benefits they provide to society. The present (2011) species- and sector-centric way we manage these ecosystems cannot account properly for cumulative effects, sustaining multiple ecosystem services, and holistically and explicitly evaluating the tradeoffs associated with proposed alternative and multiple human uses. A transition to an ecosystem-based approach to management and conservation of coastal and marine resources is needed. Competing uses and activities such as commerce, recreation, cultural practices, energy development, conservation, and national security are increasing pressure for new and expanded resource usage in coastal marine ecosystems. Current management efforts use a sector-by-sector approach that mostly focuses on a limited range of tools and outcomes [for example, oil and gas leases, fishery management plans, and Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)]. A comprehensive, ecosystem-based, and proactive approach to planning and managing these uses and activities is needed. Further, scientific understanding and information are essential to achieve an integrated decision-making process that includes knowledge of ecosystem services, existing and possible future conditions, and potential consequences of natural and anthropogenic events. Because no single government agency has executive authority for coastal or ocean resources, conflicting objectives around competing uses abound. In recent years, regional- and state-level initiatives in Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) have emerged to coordinate management activities. In some respects, the components and steps of the overall CMSP process are similar to how existing ocean resources are regulated and managed. For example, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) uses spatial planning exercises in State Renewable Energy Task Force meetings to identify competing and conflicting ocean uses, and to delineate areas suitable for renewable energy development. Similarly terrestrial areas such as in national parks and national wildlife refuges managed by the Department of the Interior (DOI) prepare management plans for preservation and restoration of species and habitats of concern, some of which are protected by law. The analogy to CMSP is clear - multiple users and multiple expectations, resulting in the requirement to establish spatial plans for management of different resources and different ecosystem services. A two-day workshop on December 1-2, 2010, was convened for DOI representatives and several key non-DOI participants with roles in CMSP as a step toward clarifying national perspectives and consequences of the National Ocean Policy for the West (appendix 1). Discussions helped to develop an understanding of CMSP from the federal perspective and to identify regional priorities. An overarching theme was to promote a better understanding of current and future science needs. The workshop format included briefings by key Federal agencies on their understanding of the national focus followed by discussion of regional issues, including the needs for scientific information and coordination. The workshop also explored potential science contributions by Federal agencies and others; utilizing current capabilities, data, and information systems; and provided a foundation for possible future regional workshops focusing in turn on the West Coast Region (California, Oregon, and Washington), Pacific Islands (sometimes referred to as Oceania) and Alaska. Participants were asked to share information in the following areas, recognizing that the purpose would be to learn more about the national perspective (see appendixes 2-4): Explore how the Western U.S. (Alaska, Pacific Islands, and West Coast Region) migh

Open-File Report↗