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Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Water Resources Research↗

Comment on "Revisiting the 1872 owens valley, California, earthquake" by Susan E. Hough and Kate Hutton

Bakun (2009) argues that the conclusions of Hough and Hutton (2008) are wrong because the study failed to take into account the Sierra Nevada attenuation model of Bakun (2006). In particular, Bakun (2009) argues that propagation effects can explain the relatively high intensities generated by the 1872 Owens Valley earthquake. Using an intensity attenuation model that attempts to account for attenuation through the Sierra Nevada, Bakun (2006) infers the magnitude estimate (M w 7.4–7.5) that is currently accepted by National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Toward a Federal Land Information System: Experiences and issues

From 1983 to 1987, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted research to develop a national resource data base of Federal lands under the auspices of the Federal Land Information System (FLIS) program. The program's goal was to develop the capability to provide information to national mineral-use policymakers. Prototype spatial data bases containing mineral, land status, and base cartographic data were developed for the Medford, Oreg., area, the State of Alaska, and the Silver City, N. Mex., area. Other accomplishments included (1) the preparation of a digital format for U.S. Geological Survey mineral assessment data and (2) the development of a procedure for integrating parcel-level tabular Alaska land status data into a section-level geographic information system. Overall findings indicated that both vector and raster capabilities are required for a FLIS and that nationwide data availability is a limiting factor in FLIS development. As a result of a 1986 interbureau (U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Land Management, and Bureau of Mines) review of the FLIS program, activities were redirected to undertake research on large-area geographic information system techniques. Land use and land cover data generalization strategies were tested, and areafiltering software was found to be the optimum type. In addition, a procedure was developed for transferring tabular land status data of surveyed areas in the contiguous 48 States to spatial data for use in geographic information systems. The U.S. Geological Survey FLIS program, as an administrative unit, ended in 1987, but FLIS-related research on large-area geographic information systems continues.

Bulletin↗

U.S. Geological Survey Trace Elements and related reports through 1953

This report combines and brings up-to-date the information previously given in Trace Elements Investigations Report 325, "Numerical list of U.S. Geological Survey Trace Elements Reports to April 30, 1953," and Trace Elements Investigations Report 301, "Topical index and bibliography of U.S. Geological Survey Trace Elements and related reports." Part I is a numerical list of U.S. Geological Survey Trace Elements Investigations and Memorandum reports. It supersedes TEI-325. This part lists not only reports (followed by a date) that have been transmitted to the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, but also reports in preparation (followed by an asterisk) for which tentative titles were available on December 31, 1953. Reports that have been published are indicated by the abbreviation of the medium of publication. (See also part II.) Part II is a reference guide to Trace Elements and related reports that are available to the public; this part supersedes Part 2 of the TEI-301 (published as Geological survey Circular 281). These reports are grouped according to the type of publication or release. Abstracts published in Nuclear Science Abstracts are not included in Part II, although certain TEI and TEM reports, the abstracts of which have been published in NSA, are so indicated in Part I. Publications in process on December 31, 1953, are designated by an asterisk. Part III is a finding list of states, areas, and subjects. It is based on information derived mostly from the titles of reports and, where titles are of a general nature, from a cursory review of the reports. This list is not a complete index of the information given in Trace Elements and related reports, but is designed to find subjects of major interest. Because of the numerous entries for Colorado and Utah, information has been listed by counties and, where possible, by subject under these states. Other states have county listings only if a county is included in the title of a report; otherwise, areas may be listed separately under the state. Major subjects are listed separately in the index and also where appropriate under states. Analytical methods and subjects related to analytical research are listed under Analytical Methods and Research, but not separately throughout the index. Most mineralogic studies are included under the heading Mineralogy, but are not necessarily listed according to location. Part IV is a finding list of authors. The words “with” and “and” are used to indicate seniority of authorship. For example, a listing of Jones and Brown indicates that Jones is the senior author. A listing of Jones with Brown indicates that Brown is the senior author. In both parts III and IV all Trace Elements reports are listed, as well as other related reports that have not been issued as Trace Elements reports. The following standard abbreviations have been used: TEI, Trace Elements Investigations report; TEM, Trace Elements Memorandum report; P, Professional Paper; B, Bulletin; C, Circular; J, Journal; OF, open file; TIS, Technical Information Service release; NSA, Nuclear Science Abstracts; QM, Quadrangle Map Series; and OM, Oil and Gas map or Mineral Investigations map or report.

Trace Elements Investigations↗

Compilation of Disruptions to Airports by Volcanic Activity (Version 1.0, 1944-2006)

Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. To more fully characterize the nature and scope of volcanic hazards to airports, we collected data on incidents of airports throughout the world that have been affected by volcanic activity, beginning in 1944 with the first documented instance of damage to modern aircraft and facilities in Naples, Italy, and extending through 2006. Information was gleaned from various sources, including news outlets, volcanological reports (particularly the Smithsonian Institution's Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network), and previous publications on the topic. This report presents the full compilation of the data collected. For each incident, information about the affected airport and the volcanic source has been compiled as a record in a Microsoft Access database. The database is incomplete in so far as incidents may not have not been reported or documented, but it does present a good sample from diverse parts of the world. Not included are en-route diversions to avoid airborne ash clouds at cruise altitudes. The database has been converted to a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. To make the PDF version of table 1 in this open-file report resemble the spreadsheet, order the PDF pages as 12, 17, 22; 13, 18, 23; 14, 19, 24; 15, 20, 25; and 16, 21, 26. Analysis of the database reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were impacted on 171 occasions from 1944 through 2006 by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. The number of affected airports (101) probably is better constrained than the number of incidents (171) because recurring disruptions at a given airport may have been lumped together or not reported by news agencies, whereas the initial disruption likely is noticed and reported and thus the airport correctly counted.

Open-File Report↗

GAP Analysis Bulletin Number 15

The Mission of the Gap Analysis Project (GAP) <http://gapanalysis.nbii.gov> is to promote conservation by providing broad geographic information on biological diversity to resource managers, planners, and policy makers who can use the information to make informed decisions. As part of the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) <http://www.nbii.gov>?a collaborative program to provide increased access to data and information on the nation?s biological resources--GAP data and analytical tools have been used in hundreds of applications: from basic research to comprehensive state wildlife plans; from educational projects in schools to ecoregional assessments of biodiversity. The challenge: keeping common species common means protecting them BEFORE they become threatened. To do this on a state or regional basis requires key information such as land cover descriptions, predicted distribution maps for native animals, and an assessment of the level of protection currently given to those plants and animals. GAP works cooperatively with Federal, state, and local natural resource professionals and academics to provide this kind of information. GAP activities focus on the creation of state and regional databases and maps that depict patterns of land management, land cover, and biodiversity. These data can be used to identify ?gaps? in conservation--instances where an animal or plant community is not adequately represented on the existing network of conservation lands. GAP is administered through the U.S. Geological Survey. Through building partnerships among disparate groups, GAP hopes to foster the kind of collaboration that is needed to address conservation issues on a broad scale. For more information, contact: John Mosesso National GAP Director 703-648-4079 Kevin Gergely National GAP Operations Manager 208-885-3565

GAP Bulletin↗

Studies of pre-Selma Cretaceous core samples from the outcrop area in western Alabama

In 1954 four core holes were drilled in the pre-Selma Cretaceous strata of the Alabama Coastal Plain in order to get unweathered samples within a few miles of the outcrops. During the next few years several specialists studied the cores, and their reports are published as consecutive parts of this bulletin. Watson H. Monroe, who spent many years studying the Coastal Plain strata in Alabama and Mississippi, conceived and supervised the drilling and planned the later studies. His earlier published report (W. H. Monroe, 1955, Cores of pre-Selma Cretaceous rocks in the outcrop area in western Alabama: Gulf Coast Geol. Societies Trans., v. 5, p. 11-37) contains a brief description of the stratigraphy, together with logs and other information regarding the core holes, and he has provided the introductory chapter to this bulletin. Richard E. Bergenback studied the petrology of the cores, which included finding the distribution of grain sizes, determining the mineralogy of the grains and the matrix of the sediments, and having X-Ray identifications made of the clay minerals. Norman F. Sohl studied the mollusks and other large fossils obtained from the cores and compared them with other faunal suites collected in Alaban1a and Texas. Esther R. Applin studied the sparse microfauna, comparing it with faunas obtained from deep wells downdip in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi and with outcrop samples fron1 Texas, and has described a new species of Foraminifera. Estella B. Leopold and Helen M. Pakiser obtained a large pollen and spore assemblage by digesting carbonaceous layers of some of the cores in acid; this flora includes much new material, which is not described here. The Bergenback, Sohl, and Applin reports discuss the probable environment in which the sediments accumulated. Louis C. Conant, who spent several years studying and mapping these sediments, has written a summary chapter integrating some of the surface and subsurface information. Quarter-cuts of the cores belonging to the U.S. National Museum have been deposited on indefinite loan with the Alabama Geological Survey at University, Ala., and with the Shell Oil Co. at Jackson, Miss. They are available there for inspection and study.

Bulletin↗

Methods for peak-flow frequency analysis and reporting for streamgages in or near Montana based on data through water year 2015

This report documents the methods for peak-flow frequency (hereinafter “frequency”) analysis and reporting for streamgages in and near Montana following implementation of the Bulletin 17C guidelines. The methods are used to provide estimates of peak-flow quantiles for 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for selected streamgages operated by the U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center (WY–MT WSC). These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Standard procedures specific to the WY–MT WSC for implementing the Bulletin 17C guidelines include (1) the use of the Expected Moments Algorithm analysis for fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution, incorporating historical information where applicable; (2) the use of weighted skew coefficients (based on weighting at-site station skew coefficients with generalized skew coefficients from the Bulletin 17B national skew map); and (3) the use of the Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test for identifying potentially influential low flows. For some streamgages, the peak-flow records are not well represented by the standard procedures and require user-specified adjustments informed by hydrologic judgement. The specific characteristics of peak-flow records addressed by the informed-user adjustments include (1) regulated peak-flow records, (2) atypical upper-tail peak-flow records, and (3) atypical lower-tail peak-flow records. In all cases, the informed-user adjustments use the Expected Moments Algorithm fit of the log-Pearson Type III distribution using the at-site station skew coefficient, a manual potentially influential low flow threshold, or both. Appropriate methods can be applied to at-site frequency estimates to provide improved representation of long-term hydroclimatic conditions. The methods for improving at-site frequency estimates by weighting with regional regression equations and by Maintenance of Variance Extension Type III record extension are described. Frequency analyses were conducted for 99 example streamgages to indicate various aspects of the frequency- analysis methods described in this report. The frequency analyses and results for the example streamgages are presented in a separate data release associated with this report consisting of tables and graphical plots that are structured to include information concerning the interpretive decisions involved in the frequency analyses. Further, the separate data release includes the input files to the PeakFQ program, version 7.1, including the peak-flow data file and the analysis specification file that were used in the peak-flow frequency analyses. Peak-flow frequencies are also reported in separate data releases for selected streamgages in the Beaverhead River and Clark Fork Basins and also for selected streamgages in the Ruby, Jefferson, and Madison River Basins.

Montana↗

Emplacement temperatures of unsorted and unstratified deposits of volcanic rock debris as determined by paleomagnetic techniques

Unsorted and unstratified deposits of volcanic rock debris typically flank recently active stratovolcanoes. It is often difficult, using standard geologic procedures, to establish whether a particular deposit was emplaced by a pyroclastic flow, lahar, rock avalanche, or glacier. Determination of the emplacement temperatures of clasts contained in the deposit aids in discriminating among some of these possibilities. The emplacement temperature of a clast can be estimated by analyzing its thermoremanent magnetization. To do this, oriented samples of the clasts are submitted to progressive thermal demagnetization; the directions and magnitudes of the resulting residual remanent vectors provide the information necessary to estimate the temperatures at which the clasts were emplaced. Studies of samples that were given artificial emplacement temperatures reveal that estimates are within plus or minus 25 degree C of the actual values. The temperature range within which estimates are possible depends on the thermoremanent magnetization acquisition curve of a clast. Data obtained from deposits of volcanic rock debris from Mount St. Helens, Washington, indicate that for andesitic and dacitic rocks, the range is roughly 100 to 550 degree C. The procedure probably can be applied to other geologic problems that require temperature information.

Washington↗

The geologic story of Yosemite National Park

Within 150 years, Yosemite has moved from great obscurity to worldwide fame as one of the most visited of our national parks. As a remarkable place where people can enjoy unparalleled scenes of natural beauty and where many easily observed geologic features are concentrated, the park is rivaled by few other areas on the planet. The majesty and immense variety of these features have inspired artists and photographers, intrigued tourists, and stirred controversy among geologists. Field studies in the Yosemite area have contributed to the development of our ideas about geologic processes, including the different actions of streams and glaciers in the evolution of the landscape, and the formation of granite, the basic bedrock of much of the Earth's continents. The park's role as a natural laboratory for geologic research cannot be overemphasized, and its investigation has led to many landmark studies by U.S. Geological Survey geologists over the past 70 years. In 1913, the first detailed program of research on the geology of the park and the origin ofYosemite Valley was begun by Francois Matthes and Frank Calkins. Their work, along with that of later generations of Survey geologists, myself included, serves as the basis for our present understanding of the geologic history of Yosemite and of the processes that formed and continue to mold its landscape. This book, which makes available in one volume a comprehensive summary of the current geologic knowledge of Yosemite National Park, is an excellent example of the Survey's continuing effort to provide earth-science information in the public service.

California↗

Hummingbirds of North America

Hummingbirds of North America. By Sheri Williamson and John W. Vanderpoel. Peregrine Video Productions, Niwot, Colorado. 2004: 178 minutes. VHS $34.95, DVD $39.95.—This video is the third in the Advanced Birding Series by Peregrine Video Productions, following the two videos on gull identification. The format will be familiar to those who have seen the gull videos, with Jon Dunn providing the narration and acting as a personal guide throughout the video. I particularly enjoyed Jon's asides on such subjects as how the vocalizations of an Anna's Hummingbird ( Calypte anna ) sound like a “familiar” typewriter to him—before he acknowledges that the typewriter is not as familiar as it once was. The identification information is commensurate with that presented in the gull videos, although the editing and overall presentation of the information is perhaps more polished.

The Wilson Bulletin↗

Guidebook of the western United States: Part E - The Denver & Rio Grande Western route

The United States of America comprise an area so vast in extent and so diverse in natural features as well as in characters due to human agency that the American citizen who knows thoroughly his own country must have traveled widely and observed wisely. To 'know America first' is a patriotic obligation, but to meet this obligation the railroad traveler needs to have his eyes directed toward the more important or essential things within his field of vision and then to have much that he sees explained by what is unseen in the swift passage of the train. Indeed, many things that attract his attention are inexplicable except as the story of the past is available to enable him to interpret the present. Herein lie the value and the charm of history, whether human or geologic. The present stimulus given to travel in the home country will encourage many thousands of Americans to study geography at first hand. To make this study most profitable the traveler needs a handbook that will answer the questions that come to his mind so readily along the way. Furthermore, the aim of such a guide should be to stimulate the eye in the selection of the essentials in the scene that so rapidly unfolds itself in the crossing of the continent. In recognition of the opportunity to render service of this kind to an unusually large number of American citizens, as well as to visitors from other countries, the United States Geological Survey has published a series of guidebooks covering four of the older railroad routes west of the Mississippi. The present volume is an addition to this series and covers one of the finest scenic routes of the continent. These books are educational in purpose, but the method adopted is to entertain the traveler by making more interesting what he sees from the car window. The plan of the series is to present authoritative information that may enable the reader to realize adequately the scenic and material resources of the region he is traversing, to comprehend correctly the basis of its development, and above all to appreciate keenly the real value of the country he looks out upon, not as so many square miles of territory represented on the map in a railroad folder by meaningless spaces, but rather as land - real estate, if you please - varying widely in present appearance because differing largely in its history, and characterized by even greater variation in values because possessing diversified natural resources. One region may be such as to afford a livelihood for only a pastoral people; another may present opportunity for intensive agriculture; still another may contain hidden stores of mineral wealth that may attract large industrial development; and, taken together, these varied resources afford, the promise of long-continued prosperity for this or that State. Items of interest in civic development or references to significant epochs in the record of discovery and settlement may be interspersed. with explanations of mountain and valley or statements of geologic history. In a broad way the story of the West is a unit, and every chapter should be told in order to meet fully the needs of the tourist who aims to understand all that he sees. To such a traveler-reader this series of guidebooks is addressed. To this interpretation of our own country the United States Geological Survey brings the accumulated data of decades of pioneering investigation, and the present contribution is only one type of return to the public which has supported this scientific work under the Federal Government - a by-product of research. In the preparation of the description of the country traversed by the Denver & Rio Grande Western Route the geographic and geologic information already published as well as unpublished material in the possession of the Geological Survey has been utilized, but to supplement this material Mr. Campbell made a field examination of the entire route in 1915-1916. Information has been furnished by others,

Bulletin↗

Geologic investigations of radioactive deposits, semiannual progress report for June 1 to November 30, 1955

This report is a statement of progress during the six-months period from June 1 to November 30, 1955 on investigations of radioactive materials in the United States and Alaska, undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey under the sponsorship of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. During the period the Geological Survey's program has been directed to an increasing extent toward the understanding of geologic conditions favorable for the concentration of uranium, rather than the search for minable deposits as such. This shift in emphasis is reflected in the decreased amount of exploration drilling during the period, and the accompanying increase in geologic programs of a long-range nature. The program is now directed toward a comprehensive understanding of the many factors involved in uranium geology, and the publication of reports that will make available information on all phases of the uranium program. Many investigations have progressed to the point where final reports are in preparation for future publication with the permission of the Atomic Energy Commission; for other investigations of a continuing nature it will be several years before final reports can be prepared. Formal publications (as distinguished from administrative Trace Elements Reports) published during the period include 10 Geological Survey Bulletins or Bulletin Chapters; 116 Geological Survey maps; 15 reports published in scientific journals; seven Trace Elements Reports sent to the Technical Information Service of the Atomic Energy Commission for distribution and sale to the public; and four Trace Elements reports placed on open file. In addition, a large number •of papers by geologists in the program were presented before scientific societies, and the 61 papers prepared for the United Nations International Conference .on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy during the preceding report period were published by the United Nations.

Trace Elements Investigations↗

Estimating magnitude and frequency of floods using the PeakFQ 7.0 program

Flood-frequency analysis provides information about the magnitude and frequency of flood discharges based on records of annual maximum instantaneous peak discharges collected at streamgages. The information is essential for defining flood-hazard areas, for managing floodplains, and for designing bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other flood-control structures. Bulletin 17B (B17B) of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (IACWD; 1982) codifies the standard methodology for conducting flood-frequency studies in the United States. B17B specifies that annual peak-flow data are to be fit to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. Specific methods are also prescribed for improving skew estimates using regional skew information, tests for high and low outliers, adjustments for low outliers and zero flows, and procedures for incorporating historical flood information. The authors of B17B identified various needs for methodological improvement and recommended additional study. In response to these needs, the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI, successor to IACWD; http://acwi.gov/ , Subcommittee on Hydrology (SOH), Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG), has recommended modest changes to B17B. These changes include adoption of a generalized method-of-moments estimator denoted the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) (Cohn and others, 1997) and a generalized version of the Grubbs-Beck test for low outliers (Cohn and others, 2013). The SOH requested that the USGS implement these changes in a user-friendly, publicly accessible program.

Fact Sheet↗

Design concepts for a Global Telemetered Seismograph Network

This study represents a first step in developing an integrated, real-time global seismic data acquisition system a Global Telemetered Seismograph Network (GTSN). The principal objective of the GTSN will be to acquire reliable, high-quality, real-time seismic data for rapid location and analysis of seismic events. A secondary, but important, objective of the GTSN is to augment the existing off-line seismic data base available for research. The deployment of the GTSN will involve a variety of interrelated activities development of the data acquisition and receiving equipment, establishment of satellite and terrestrial communication links, site selection and preparation, training of station personnel, equipment installation, and establishment of support facilities. It is a complex program and the development of a sound management plan will be essential. The purpose of this study is not to fix design goals or dictate avenues of approach but to develop working concepts that may be used as a framework for program planning. The international exchange of seismic data has been an important factor in the progress that has been made during the past two decades in our understanding of earthquakes and global tectonics. The seismic data base available for analysis and research is derived principally from the Global Seismograph Network (GSN), which is funded and managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The GSN comprises some 120 seismograph stations located in more than 60 countries of the world. Established during the 1960 s with the installation of the World-Wide Standardized Seismograph Network (WWSSN) , the GSN has been augmented in recent years by the installation of more advanced data systems, such as the Seismic Research Observatories (SRO), the modified High-Gain LongPeriod (ASRO) seismographs, and the digital WWSSN (DWWSSN). The SRO, ASRO, and DWWSSN stations have the common, distinctive feature of digital data recording, so they are known collectively as the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN). The fundamental objective in operating the GSN is to create and update a seismic data base that is accessible without restrictions to organizations and research scientists throughout the world. The USGS provides cooperating stations with instrumentation, training, and continuing support, including supplies and on-site maintenance. In return, the host organization operates the equipment and sends the recorded data to the USGS. Analog data (seismograms) are microfilmed and about four million copies are requested annually by researchers. Digital data, which are recorded on magnetic tape, are organized by the USGS Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) into networkday tapes and copies of the day tapes are furnished to data users through national and regional data centers. After copying, original data are returned to the stations and used for local research. Most of the stations in the GSN also provide the USGS with seismic readings « phase arrival times and amplitudes scaled from the seismograms. These readings are transmitted on a daily or biweekly basis via commercial or diplomatic communication channels. They are used by the USGS National Earthquake Information Service (NEIS) to determine the location and magnitude of earthquakes occurring throughout the world. The results are published monthly in bulletins that are distributed to the participating stations and virtually all scientific organizations that are involved in seismological studies. It is a much-valued service that provides a current, updated catalog of seismic activity on a global scale. The NEIS also has the responsibility for rapid reporting of large and potentially destructive earthquakes. The NEIS issues news bulletins as soon as possible after the occurrence of magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes (magnitude 5 or greater in the conterminous United States). The news bulletins are sent to disaster relief, public safety, and other interested organizations. Tsunami warnings issued to countries bordering the Pacific Ocean are based initially on earthquake location and magnitude data. Rapid reporting of earthquakes requires real-time waveform data or readings. Currently, signals are being telemetered from more than thirty stations in the United States to the NEIS, which is located in Golden, Colorado. An extension of the telemetry network to other countries will provide the seismological community with a significantly improved means of monitoring earthquake activity in real time; it will lower the response time for determining the location and magnitude of potentially destructive or tsunamigenic earthquakes and it will provide more timely information that may be needed by governments to respond promptly.

Open-File Report↗

Comparison of shear-wave slowness profiles at 10 strong-motion sites from noninvasive SASW measurements and measurements made in boreholes

The spectral-analysis-of-surface-waves (SASW) method is a relatively new in situ method for determining shear-wave slownesses. All measurements are made on the ground surface, making it much less costly than methods that require boreholes. The SASW method uses a number of active sources (ranging from a commercial Vibroseis truck to a small handheld hammer for the study conducted here) and different receiver spacings to map a curve of apparent phase velocity versus frequency. With the simplifying assumption that the phase velocities correspond to fundamental mode surface waves, forward modeling yields an estimate of the sub-surface shear-wave slownesses. To establish the reliability of this indirect technique, we conducted a blind evaluation of the SASW method. SASW testing was performed at 10 strong-motion stations at which borehole seismic measurements were previously or subsequently made; if previously made, the borehole results were not used for the interpretation of the SASW data, and vice-versa. Comparisons of the shear-wave slownesses from the SASW and borehole measurements are generally very good. The differences in predicted ground-motion amplifications are less than about 15% for most frequencies. In addition, both methods gave the same NEHRP site classification for seven of the sites. For the other three sites the average velocities from the downhole measurements were only 5-13 m/sec larger than the velocity defining the class C/D boundary. This study demonstrates that in many situations the SASW method can provide subsurface information suitable for site response predictions.

California↗

Observation and prediction of dynamic ground strains, tilts, and torsions caused by the Mw 6.0 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake and aftershocks, derived from UPSAR array observations

The 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake (Mw 6.0) and four aftershocks (Mw 4.7-5.1) were recorded on 12 accelerograph stations of the U.S. Geological Survey Parkfield seismic array (UPSAR), an array of three-component accelerographs occupying an area of about 1 km2 located 8.8 km from the San Andreas fault. Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity at UPSAR during the mainshock were 0.45g and 27 cm/sec, respectively. We determined both time-varying and peak values of ground dilatations, shear strains, torsions, tilts, torsion rates, and tilt rates by applying a time-dependent geodetic analysis to the observed array displacement time series. Array-derived dilatations agree fairly well with point measurements made on high sample rate recordings of the Parkfield-area dilatometers (Johnston et al., 2006). Torsion Fourier amplitude spectra agree well with ground velocity spectra, as expected for propagating plane waves. A simple predictive relation, using the predicted peak velocity from the Boore-Atkinson ground-motion prediction relation (Boore and Atkinson, 2007) scaled by a phase velocity of 1 km/sec, predicts observed peak Parkfield and Chi-Chi rotations (Huang, 2003) well. However, rotation rates measured during Mw 5 Ito, Japan, events observed on a gyro sensor (Takeo, 1998) are factors of 5-60 greater than those predicted by our predictive relation. This discrepancy might be caused by a scale dependence in rotation, with rotations measured over a short baseline exceeding those measured over long baselines. An alternative hypothesis is that events having significant non-double-couple mechanisms, like the Ito events, radiate much stronger rotations than double-couple events. If this is true, then rotational observations might provide an important source of new information for monitoring seismicity in volcanic areas.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗