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At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Characterizing the movement of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in an avian aquatic–terrestrial food web

The movement of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) through linked aquatic–terrestrial food webs is not well understood. Tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor ) in such systems may be exposed to PFAS from multiple abiotic and/or biotic compartments. We show from fatty acid signatures and carbon stable isotopes that tree swallow nestlings in southwestern Ontario fed on both terrestrial and aquatic macroinvertebrates. The PFAS profiles of air, terrestrial invertebrates, and swallows were dominated by perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS). Short-chain perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) were largely restricted to air, surface water, and sediment, and long-chain PFAAs were mainly found in aquatic invertebrates and tree swallows. PFOS, multiple long-chain perfluorocarboxylic acids [perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA)] and perfluorooctane sulfonamide precursors were estimated to bioaccumulate from air to tree swallows. PFOS bioaccumulated from air to terrestrial invertebrates, and PFOS, PFDA, and perfluorooctane sulfonamidoacetic acids (FOSAAs) bioaccumulated from water to aquatic invertebrates. PFOS showed biomagnification from both terrestrial and aquatic invertebrates to tree swallows, and PFDA and FOSAAs were also biomagnified from aquatic invertebrates to tree swallows. The movement of PFAS through aquatic–terrestrial food webs appears congener- and compartment-specific, challenging the understanding of PFAS exposure routes for multiple species involved in these food webs.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2023

Environmental DNA as a tool for better understanding the distribution, abundance, and health of Atlantic and Pacific salmon

The development and application of approaches to detect and quantify environmental DNA (eDNA) have potential to improve our understanding of the distribution, abundance, and health of Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar and Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. Here, we review 61 articles focusing on eDNA applications pertaining to salmon occupying natural habitat and aquaculture facilities in the context of advances, opportunities, and challenges. Given recent advances, eDNA now serves as a useful tool for detecting Atlantic Salmon and Pacific salmon and understanding threats to the health of fish and their habitats. Opportunities exist to apply sensitive and minimally invasive eDNA approaches to detect fish and assess fish habitat, assess range expansions of salmon and salmon pathogens, and detect invasive species that may threaten salmon health and abundance. Near real-time eDNA detection and quantification approaches to inform fisheries management may be on the horizon. Challenges limiting the widespread application of eDNA approaches for informing salmon management include accounting for the many factors affecting detection and quantification of eDNA, limits of data for deriving inference, and expense. Through continued development and refinement, eDNA approaches are anticipated to become increasingly available to, and utilized by, managers of Atlantic Salmon and Pacific salmon fisheries.

Fisheries Magazine↗

USGS2007

Predicting the potential distribution of invasive exotic species using GIS and information-theoretic approaches: A case of ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) distribution in China

Invasive exotic species pose a growing threat to the economy, public health, and ecological integrity of nations worldwide. Explaining and predicting the spatial distribution of invasive exotic species is of great importance to prevention and early warning efforts. We are investigating the potential distribution of invasive exotic species, the environmental factors that influence these distributions, and the ability to predict them using statistical and information-theoretic approaches. For some species, detailed presence/absence occurrence data are available, allowing the use of a variety of standard statistical techniques. However, for most species, absence data are not available. Presented with the challenge of developing a model based on presence-only information, we developed an improved logistic regression approach using Information Theory and Frequency Statistics to produce a relative suitability map. This paper generated a variety of distributions of ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) from logistic regression models applied to herbarium specimen location data and a suite of GIS layers including climatic, topographic, and land cover information. Our logistic regression model was based on Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) from a suite of ecologically reasonable predictor variables. Based on the results we provided a new Frequency Statistical method to compartmentalize habitat-suitability in the native range. Finally, we used the model and the compartmentalized criterion developed in native ranges to "project" a potential distribution onto the exotic ranges to build habitat-suitability maps. ?? Science in China Press 2007.

Chinese Science Bulletin↗

USGS2013

Predicting ecosystem stability from community composition and biodiversity

As biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate, an important current scientific challenge is to understand and predict the consequences of biodiversity loss. Here, we develop a theory that predicts the temporal variability of community biomass from the properties of individual component species in monoculture. Our theory shows that biodiversity stabilises ecosystems through three main mechanisms: (1) asynchrony in species’ responses to environmental fluctuations, (2) reduced demographic stochasticity due to overyielding in species mixtures and (3) reduced observation error (including spatial and sampling variability). Parameterised with empirical data from four long-term grassland biodiversity experiments, our prediction explained 22–75% of the observed variability, and captured much of the effect of species richness. Richness stabilised communities mainly by increasing community biomass and reducing the strength of demographic stochasticity. Our approach calls for a re-evaluation of the mechanisms explaining the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem stability.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2005

Water availability for the Western United States--Key scientific challenges

In the Western United States, the availability of water has become a serious concern for many communities and rural areas. Near population centers, surface-water supplies are fully appropriated, and many communities are dependent upon ground water drawn from storage, which is an unsustainable strategy. Water of acceptable quality is increasingly hard to find because local sources are allocated to prior uses, depleted by overpumping, or diminished by drought stress. Some of the inherent characteristics of the West add complexity to the task of securing water supplies. The Western States, including the arid Southwest, have the most rapid population growth in the United States. The climate varies widely in the West, but it is best known for its low precipitation, aridity, and drought. There is evidence that the climate is warming, which will have consequences for Western water supplies, such as increased minimum streamflow and earlier snowmelt events in snow-dominated basins. The potential for departures from average climatic conditions threatens to disrupt society and local to regional economies. The appropriative rights doctrine governs the management of water in most Western States, although some aspects of the riparian doctrine are being incorporated. The 'use it or lose it' provisions of Western water law discourage conservation and make the reallocation of water to instream environmental uses more difficult. The hydrologic sciences have defined the interconnectedness of ground water and surface water, yet these resources are still administered separately by most States. The definition of water availability has been expanded to include sustaining riparian ecosystems and individual endangered species, which are disproportionately represented in the Western States. Federal reserved rights, common in the West because of the large amount of Federal land, exist with quite senior priority dates whether or not water is currently being used. A major challenge for water users in the West is that these reserved rights may supersede other existing users. The minimum amount of water required, however, to sustain native peoples, a riparian system, or an endangered species eventually will need to be known in order to manage the available water supply. Periodic inventory and assessment of the amounts and trends of water available in surface water and ground water are needed to support water management. There is a widespread perception that the amount of available water is diminishing with time. This and other perceptions about water availability should be replaced by objective data and analysis. Some data are presented here for the major Western rivers that show that flows are not decreasing in most streams and rivers in the West. Systematic information is lacking to make broad assessments of ground-water availability, but available data for specific aquifers indicate that these aquifers are being depleted, especially near population centers. The complexity added to the issue of Western water availability by these and other factors gives rise to a significant role of science. Science has played a role in support of Western water development from the beginning, and the role has evolved and changed over time as society's values have changed. In this report, the role of science is discussed in three phases: (1) development and construction, (2) consequences and environmental awareness, and (3) sustainability. The development and construction phase includes some historical accounting of water development in the West and shows how some precedents set in those early days are still applied today.

western United States↗

USGS2017

Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region

Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential impacts from climate-driven coastal hazards have called for collaboration among communities to strengthen the application of best practices. However, communities currently lack practical tools for identifying potential partner communities based on similar hazard exposure characteristics. This study uses statistical cluster analysis to identify similarities in community exposure to flooding hazards for a suite of sea level rise and storm scenarios. We demonstrate this approach using 63 jurisdictions in the San Francisco Bay region of California (USA) and compare 21 distinct exposure variables related to residents, employees, and structures for six hazard scenario combinations of sea level rise and storms. Results indicate that cluster analysis can provide an effective mechanism for identifying community groupings. Cluster compositions changed based on the selected societal variables and sea level rise scenarios, suggesting that a community could participate in multiple networks to target specific issues or policy interventions. The proposed clustering approach can serve as a data-driven foundation to help communities identify other communities with similar adaptation challenges and to enhance regional efforts that aim to facilitate adaptation planning and investment prioritization.

California↗

USGS2019

Statistical power of dynamic occupancy models to identify temporal change: Informing the North American Bat Monitoring Program

Dynamic occupancy models provide a flexible framework for estimating and mapping species occupancy patterns over space and time for large-scale monitoring programs (e.g., the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative). Challenges for designing surveys using the dynamic occupancy modeling framework include defining appropriate derived trend parameters, and providing usable tools for researchers to conduct project-specific sample size investigations. We present a simulation-based power analysis framework for dynamic occupancy models that allows for the incorporation of the underlying environmental space (i.e., as covariates) within a specific study region to inform sample size estimation. We investigate two definitions of temporal trend: (1) a gradual, sustained (linear or nonlinear) change over a period of many years, and (2) an abrupt increase or decrease between two time periods. We draw upon pilot data collected following NABat protocols to inform assumed data generating values in a demonstration of our approach. Due to the complicated parameter structure of dynamic occupancy models, we emphasize the importance of visualizing simulated changes over time based on different parameter settings prior to conducting a power analysis. Our simulations revealed that the linearity of short-term trends (five years in our investigation) conferred higher power with lower sample size than longer trends where occupancy probabilities approached zero (ten years in our investigation). We provide an example of how to use our tools to conduct customized investigations using questions posed by NABat, and in doing so, we shed light on general guidelines that can be applied to programs monitoring species occupancy for other taxa. Importantly, we created an R package to execute our approach for informing program-, species-, and study-specific investigations aimed at identifying changes in species occupancy.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2019

On the use of indices to study extreme precipitation on sub-daily and daily timescales

While there are obstacles to the exchange of long-term high temporal resolution precipitation data, there have been few barriers to the exchange of so-called ‘indices’ which are derived from daily and sub-daily data and measure aspects of precipitation frequency, duration and intensity that could be used for the study of extremes. This paper outlines the history of the rationale and use of these indices, the types of indices that are frequently used and the advantages and pitfalls in analysing them. Moving forward, satellite precipitation products are now showing the potential to provide global climate indices to supplement existing products using longer-term in situ gauge records but we suggest that to advance this area differences between data products, limitations in satellite-based estimation processes, and inherent challenges of scale need to be better understood.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2026

Alternative future vegetation pathways reveal potential transformations of western US ecosystems

Managing ecosystems in an era of rapid change is inherently challenging not only because of uncertainty in future climate but also due to diverse responses of ecosystems to climate. Projections of ecological transformation alongside information about plausible vegetation trajectories can help land managers explore divergent scenarios and consider how modeled outcomes match their observations. Climate-analog impact models (AIMs) compare environmental information (e.g., vegetation types) between sets of climatically similar locations to infer change and can be used to identify multiple outcomes. We used AIMs to project changes in vegetation across the western United States under a mid-21st century climate scenario, characterize ecological transformation vulnerability based on projection divergence, and demonstrate how AIMs can inform decision-making. We projected high or very high vulnerability to ecological transformation across 29% of the western US, nearly 1 M km 2 . Vulnerability varied among vegetation groups; 75% of alpine vegetation had high or very high vulnerability vs. 6% of desert scrub. We estimate that 9% of the study area faces a high likelihood of transformation based on combined measures of vulnerability and projection agreement. Transformation at the vegetation type ( n = 50) level is projected for 40% (1.4 M km 2 ) of the study area, based on primary projections. As vegetation shifts towards types supported by a more arid climate, forested area is expected to contract by 9% and subalpine forests specifically by 54%. Elsewhere, vulnerability is low or trajectories are uncertain, implying opportunities for managers to intervene. Dry forests, for example, could be stabilized through vegetation management and intentional fire use. Our findings suggest likely ecological transformations with significant downstream consequences for ecosystem services and natural resources. They are best used within decision-making frameworks that draw on multiple lines of evidence including local expertise and complementary knowledge systems.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2020

Effects of snowpack, temperature, and disease on the demography of a wild population of amphibians

Understanding the demographic consequences of interactions among pathogens, hosts, and weather conditions is critical in determining how amphibian populations respond to disease and in identifying site-specific conservation actions that can be developed to bolster persistence of amphibian populations. We investigated population dynamics in Boreal Toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) relative to abiotic (fall temperatures and snowpack) and biotic (the abundance of another anuran host and disease) characteristics of the local environment in Wyoming, USA. We used capture–recapture data and a multistate model where state was treated as a hidden Markov process to incorporate disease state uncertainty and assess our a priori hypotheses. Our results indicated that snowpack during the coldest week of winter is more influential to toad survival, disease transition probabilities, and the population-level prevalence of the amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ) in the spring, than temperatures in the fall or the presence of another host. As hypothesized, apparent survival at low (i.e., <25 cm) snowpack (0.22; confidence interval [CI] = 0.15–0.31) was lower than apparent survival at high snowpack (90.65; CI = 0.50–0.78). Our findings highlight the potential for local environmental factors, like snowpack, to influence disease and host persistence, and demonstrate the ecological complexity of disease effects on population demography in natural environments. This work further emphasizes the need for improved understanding of how climate change may influence the relationships among pathogens, hosts, and their environment for wild animal populations challenged by disease.

Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Towards an urgent yet deliberate conservation strategy: Sustaining social-ecological systems in rangelands of the Northern Great Plains, Montana

Urgency and deliberateness are often at odds when executing conservation projects, especially as the scale and complexity of objectives increases. The pace of environmental degradation supports immediate and measurable action. However, best practices for adaptive governance and building resilient social-ecological systems call for more deliberate efforts and participatory processes, which can be slow. We explore conflicts between urgency and deliberateness and the potential for their reconciliation through a case study of the challenges of conserving native rangelands in North America’s Northern Great Plains, an ecoregion targeted for global conservation initiatives. This region is undergoing a significant social-ecological transition, which underscores a need to rethink conservation strategies in light of the social-ecological system dynamics and potential future trajectories. Based on a structured narrative literature review process and iterative engagement with key regional stakeholders, we identify three interrelated factors critical to the system’s future outcomes that illustrate system complexity as well as trade-offs between urgent and deliberate action and unilateral and multilateral approaches to conservation: (1) influences of land management on biodiversity, (2) economic restructuring and shifting land use priorities, and (3) changing climate and disturbance regimes. We identify key gaps in the literature for each factor and across the factors—an effort that informs our call for research and practice agendas that address uncertainty and complexity at regional scales through more inclusive and future-oriented approaches.

Montana↗

USGS2022

The researcher's lament: Why do they ignore my science?

The researcher's lament is shared by many environmental and conservation scientists who complain about the little support they receive for their research proposals during the review and selection process. Understandably, any hopes of having their anticipated scientific findings applied toward the formulation of environmental management decisions or natural resource policy action are shattered. They attribute this lack of endorsement to shortcomings and limitations among decision makers and proposal selection officials when, in many cases, the rejection of project proposals is often a function of a handful of self-inflicted failures by applied scientists who anchor themselves stubbornly to doomed approaches. Familiar deficiencies in their research proposals perpetuate the disconnect between the enterprise of science and real-world resource management challenges. Researchers themselves can affect conditions that turn up the appetite for their scientific endeavors as a more meaningful component of the decision-making process, namely, to stage and deliver science that is more readily "actionable." Perhaps it is time for them to consider a course correction to improve the viability of their actionable science proposals. A few basic steps may help rejigger the science planning process in this direction and, consequently, help avoid the researcher's lament. The likelihood of gaining support during the proposal review and award adjudication process, and securing practical application of scientific products, increases when the products are (1) the result of active engagement of researchers with decision makers; (2) better connected to social and political priorities; (3) clearly designed to inform specific management decisions; and (4) tailored to fit the needs of targeted end users. These considerations and activities exist beyond the comfort zone of many environmental or conservation scientists. Yet, those who adopt them will spend less time lamenting rejection and become more influential in the production of actionable knowledge.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2010

Challenges in merging fisheries research and management: The Upper Mississippi River experience

The Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) is a geographically diverse basin extending 10?? north temperate latitude that has produced fishes for humans for millennia. During European colonization through the present, the UMRS has been modified to meet multiple demands such as navigation and flood control. Invasive species, notably the common carp, have dominated fisheries in both positive and negative ways. Through time, environmental decline plus reduced economic incentives have degraded opportunities for fishery production. A renewed focus on fisheries in the UMRS may be dawning. Commercial harvest and corresponding economic value of native and non-native species along the river corridor fluctuates but appears to be increasing. Recreational use will depend on access and societal perceptions of the river. Interactions (e. g., disease and invasive species transmission) among fish assemblages within the UMRS, the Great Lakes, and other lakes and rivers are rising. Data collection for fisheries has varied in intensity and contiguousness through time, although resources for research and management may be growing. As fisheries production likely relies on the interconnectivity of fish populations and associated ecosystem processes among river reaches (e. g., between the pooled and unpooled UMRS), species-level processes such as genetics, life-history interactions, and migratory behavior need to be placed in the context of broad ecosystem- and landscape-scale restoration. Formal communication among a diverse group of researchers, managers, and public stakeholders crossing geographic and disciplinary boundaries is necessary through peer-reviewed publications, moderated interactions, and the embrace of emerging information technologies. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010.

Hydrobiologia↗

USGS2008

Effectiveness of an alluvial wetland on improving ground-water quality in a municipal well field, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, 1998-2006

Nutrients and pesticides are water-quality topics of concern in Iowa. Nitrate concentrations in the Cedar River and other streams in Iowa are among the highest in the Nation. A 12-mile reach of the Cedar River upstream from Cedar Rapids, Iowa, is identified on the Total Maximum Daily Load list for nitrate impairment by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In addition, pesticide concentrations in water samples from alluvial aquifers in Iowa have been ranked as some of the largest in the Nation. The Cedar River, like many rivers with alluvium, affects the alluvial aquifer that is used as a municipal water supply for Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A continuing challenge for the Cedar Rapids Water Department is to provide drinking water that meets all drinking-water regulations; this is made more of a challenge because of the high (often over 10 milligrams per liter) nitrate concentrations in the Cedar River and the presence of other potential chemicals of concern, such as pesticides. An alluvial wetland proved useful in improving water quality. Samples from observation wells completed in the alluvial wetland near the municipal well field had nitrate concentrations that were four to six times lower when compared to river or upland sites; however, iron and manganese concentrations in samples from observation wells in the wetland areas were an order of magnitude higher when compared to the river or an upgradient well. Biological and chemical reduction processes were determined to mobilize inorganic constituents in accordance with physical chemistry principles. Generally, selected pesticides and two pesticide degradates of atrazine that were sampled for in alluvial wetland wells remained relatively unchanged, and indicated only a slight decrease in concentration compared to the Cedar River water samples. Pesticides were not detected above regulatory limits in any of the observation wells; however, one sample from the Cedar River had an atrazine detection at 4.5 micrograms per liter, which is above the maximum contaminant level of 3.0 micrograms per liter for drinking-water regulations for that compound. Results indicate that alluvial wetlands may provide substantial reductions of nitrate concentrations in ground water, and may be a useful strategy for the reduction of nitrate for municipal wells. Results for reducing pesticides were less dramatic than for nitrate, as pesticide concentrations were reduced slightly from the river to the wetland.

Iowa↗

USGS2016

Review and synthesis: Changing permafrost in a warming world and feedbacks to the Earth System

The permafrost component of the cryosphere is changing dramatically, but the permafrost region is not well monitored and the consequences of change are not well understood. Changing permafrost interacts with ecosystems and climate on various spatial and temporal scales. The feedbacks resulting from these interactions range from local impacts on topography, hydrology, and biology to complex influences on global scale biogeochemical cycling. This review contributes to this focus issue by synthesizing its 28 multidisciplinary studies which provide field evidence, remote sensing observations, and modeling results on various scales. We synthesize study results from a diverse range of permafrost landscapes and ecosystems by reporting key observations and modeling outcomes for permafrost thaw dynamics, identifying feedbacks between permafrost and ecosystem processes, and highlighting biogeochemical feedbacks from permafrost thaw. We complete our synthesis by discussing the progress made, stressing remaining challenges and knowledge gaps, and providing an outlook on future needs and research opportunities in the study of permafrost–ecosystem–climate interactions.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2017

A field study of selected U.S. Geological Survey analytical methods for measuring pesticides in filtered stream water, June - September 2012

U.S. Geological Survey monitoring programs extensively used two analytical methods, gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry, to measure pesticides in filtered water samples during 1992–2012. In October 2012, the monitoring programs began using direct aqueous-injection liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry as a new analytical method for pesticides. The change in analytical methods, however, has the potential to inadvertently introduce bias in analysis of datasets that span the change. A field study was designed to document performance of the new method in a variety of stream-water matrices and to quantify any potential changes in measurement bias or variability that could be attributed to changes in analytical methods. The goals of the field study were to (1) summarize performance (bias and variability of pesticide recovery) of the new method in a variety of stream-water matrices; (2) compare performance of the new method in laboratory blank water (laboratory reagent spikes) to that in a variety of stream-water matrices; (3) compare performance (analytical recovery) of the new method to that of the old methods in a variety of stream-water matrices; (4) compare pesticide detections and concentrations measured by the new method to those of the old methods in a variety of stream-water matrices; (5) compare contamination measured by field blank water samples in old and new methods; (6) summarize the variability of pesticide detections and concentrations measured by the new method in field duplicate water samples; and (7) identify matrix characteristics of environmental water samples that adversely influence the performance of the new method. Stream-water samples and a variety of field quality-control samples were collected at 48 sites in the U.S. Geological Survey monitoring networks during June–September 2012. Stream sites were located across the United States and included sites in agricultural and urban land-use settings, as well as sites on major rivers. The results of the field study identified several challenges for the analysis and interpretation of data analyzed by both old and new methods, particularly when data span the change in methods and are combined for analysis of temporal trends in water quality. The main challenges identified are large (greater than 30 percent), statistically significant differences in analytical recovery, detection capability, and (or) measured concentrations for selected pesticides. These challenges are documented and discussed, but specific guidance or statistical methods to resolve these differences in methods are beyond the scope of the report. The results of the field study indicate that the implications of the change in analytical methods must be assessed individually for each pesticide and method. Understanding the possible causes of the systematic differences in concentrations between methods that remain after recovery adjustment might be necessary to determine how to account for the differences in data analysis. Because recoveries for each method are independently determined from separate reference standards and spiking solutions, the differences might be due to an error in one of the reference standards or solutions or some other basic aspect of standard procedure in the analytical process. Further investigation of the possible causes is needed, which will lead to specific decisions on how to compensate for these differences in concentrations in data analysis. In the event that further investigations do not provide insight into the causes of systematic differences in concentrations between methods, the authors recommend continuing to collect and analyze paired environmental water samples by both old and new methods. This effort should be targeted to seasons, sites, and expected concentrations to supplement those concentrations already assessed and to compare the ongoing analytical recovery of old and new methods to those observed in the summer and fall of 2012.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

A pesticide paradox: Fungicides indirectly increase fungal infections

There are many examples where the use of chemicals have had profound unintended consequences, such as fertilizers reducing crop yields (paradox of enrichment) and insecticides increasing insect pests (by reducing natural biocontrol). Recently, the application of agrochemicals, such as agricultural disinfectants and fungicides, has been explored as an approach to curb the pathogenic fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ), which is associated with worldwide amphibian declines. However, the long-term, net effects of early-life exposure to these chemicals on amphibian disease risk have not been thoroughly investigated. Using a combination of laboratory experiments and analysis of data from the literature, we explored the effects of fungicide exposure on Bd infections in two frog species. Extremely low concentrations of the fungicides azoxystrobin, chlorothalonil, and mancozeb were directly toxic to Bd in culture. However, estimated environmental concentrations of the fungicides did not reduce Bd on Cuban tree frog ( Osteopilus septentrionalis ) tadpoles exposed simultaneously to any of these fungicides and Bd , and fungicide exposure actually increased Bd -induced mortality. Additionally, exposure to any of these fungicides as tadpoles resulted in higher Bd abundance and greater Bd -induced mortality when challenged with Bd post-metamorphosis, an average of 71 d after their last fungicide exposure. Analysis of data from the literature revealed that previous exposure to the fungicide itraconazole, which is commonly used to clear Bd infections, made the critically endangered booroolong frog ( Litoria booroolongensis ) more susceptible to Bd . Finally, a field survey revealed that Bd prevalence was positively associated with concentrations of fungicides in ponds. Although fungicides show promise for controlling Bd , these results suggest that, if fungicides do not completely eliminate Bd or if Bd recolonizes, exposure to fungicides has the potential to do more harm than good. To ensure that fungicide applications have the intended consequence of curbing amphibian declines, researchers must identify which fungicides do not compromise the pathogen resistance mechanisms of amphibians.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2021

Habitat features predict carrying capacity of a recovering marine carnivore

The recovery of large carnivore species from over‐exploitation can have socioecological effects; thus, reliable estimates of potential abundance and distribution represent a valuable tool for developing management objectives and recovery criteria. For sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ), as with many apex predators, equilibrium abundance is not constant across space but rather varies as a function of local habitat quality and resource dynamics, thereby complicating the extrapolation of carrying capacity ( K ) from one location to another. To overcome this challenge, we developed a state‐space model of density‐dependent population dynamics in southern sea otters ( E. l. nereis ), in which K is estimated as a continuously varying function of a suite of physical, biotic, and oceanographic variables, all described at fine spatial scales. We used a theta‐logistic process model that included environmental stochasticity and allowed for density‐independent mortality associated with shark bites. We used Bayesian methods to fit the model to time series of survey data, augmented by auxiliary data on cause of death in stranded otters. Our model results showed that the expected density at K for a given area can be predicted based on local bathymetry (depth and distance from shore), benthic substrate composition (rocky vs. soft sediments), presence of kelp canopy, net primary productivity, and whether or not the area is inside an estuary. In addition to density‐dependent reductions in growth, increased levels of shark‐bite mortality over the last decade have also acted to limit population expansion. We used the functional relationships between habitat variables and equilibrium density to project estimated values of K for the entire historical range of southern sea otters in California, USA, accounting for spatial variation in habitat quality. Our results suggest that California could eventually support 17,226 otters (95% CrI = 9,739–30,087). We also used the fitted model to compute candidate values of optimal sustainable population abundance (OSP) for all of California and for regions within California. We employed a simulation‐based approach to determine the abundance associated with the maximum net productivity level (MNPL) and propose that the upper quartile of the distribution of MNPL estimates (accounting for parameter uncertainty) represents an appropriate threshold value for OSP. Based on this analysis, we suggest a candidate value for OSP (for all of California) of 10,236, which represents 59.4% of projected K .

California↗