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At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Relative prediction intervals reveal larger uncertainty in 3D approaches to predictive digital soil mapping of soil properties with legacy data

Fine scale maps of soil properties enable efficient land management and inform earth system models. Recent efforts to create soil property maps from field observations tend to use similar tree-based machine learning interpolation approaches, but often deal with depth of predictions, validation, and uncertainty differently. One of the main differences in approaches is whether to model individual depths of interest separately as ‘2D’ models, or to create models that incorporate depth as a predictor variable creating a ‘3D’ model that can make pre-dictions for all depths. It is unclear how choice of 2D or 3D approach influences model accuracy and uncertainty due to lack of direct comparison and inconsistent presentation of results in past studies. This study compares 2D and 3D methods for mapping soil electrical conductivity (salinity), pH, sum of fine and very fine sands, and organic carbon at 30 m resolution for the upper 432,000 km 2 of the Colorado River Watershed of the United States of America. A new, simple, model-agnostic relative prediction interval (RPI) approach to report un-certainty is presented that scales prediction interval width to the 95% interquantile width of the original training sample distribution. The RPI approach enables direct comparison of uncertainty between properties and depths and is easily interpretable by end users. Results indicate that 3D mapping of soil properties with strong variation with depth can result in substantial areas with much higher uncertainty that coincide with unrealistic predictions relative to 2D models, even though 3D models had slightly better global cross-validation scores. Maps and global model summaries of RPI proved helpful in identifying these issues with 3D models. These results suggest that the use of RPI or similar approaches to evaluate models can identify accuracy problems not evident in global va-lidation diagnostics.

Geoderma↗

USGS1997

Kinetics of the coesite to quartz transformation

The survival of coesite in ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) rocks has important implications for the exhumation of subducted crustal rocks. We have conducted experiments to study the mechanism and rate of the coesite→quartz transformation using polycrystalline coesite aggregates, fabricated by devitrifying silica glass cylinders containing 2850 H/10 6 Si at 1000°C and 3.6 GPa for 24 h. Conditions were adjusted following synthesis to transform the samples at 700–1000°C at pressures 190–410 MPa below the quartz–coesite equilibrium boundary. Reaction proceeds via grain-boundary nucleation and interface-controlled growth, with characteristic reaction textures remarkably similar to those seen in natural UHP rocks. We infer that the experimental reaction mechanism is identical to that in nature, a prerequisite for reliable extrapolation of the rate data. Growth rates obtained by direct measurement differ by up to two orders of magnitude from those estimated by fitting a rate equation to the transformation–time data. Fitting the rates to Turnbull's equation for growth therefore yields two distinct sets of parameters with similar activation energies (242 or 269 kJ/mol) but significantly different pre-exponential constants. Extrapolation based on either set of growth rates suggests that coesite should not be preserved on geologic time scales if it reaches the quartz stability field at temperatures above 375–400°C. The survival of coesite has previously been linked to its inclusion in strong phases, such as garnet, that can sustain a high internal pressure during decompression. Other factors that may play a crucial role in preservation are low fluid availability — possibly even less than that of our nominally “dry” experiments — and the development of transformation stress, which inhibits nucleation and growth. These issues are discussed in the context of our experiments as well as recent observations from natural rocks.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS1961

Paleomagnetism

This chapter highlights the ways in which rocks become magnetized. It also interprets paleomagnetic results in terms of the theories of polar wandering, continental drift, and an expanding Earth. The chapter describes the salient characteristics and trends of the geomagnetic field during the period of direct observation. Several questions are posed concerning the extension of these properties back to earlier times. Some of these questions can now be answered from the results of paleomagnetic research. The intensity of the main dipole component of the geomagnetic field appears to have been decreasing since well before the period of direct observation. Furthermore, two important properties of the geomagnetic field have been established by spherical harmonic analysis. First, the field is derivable from a potential and, hence, contributions to the total field from currents flowing across the Earth–air interface are negligibly small. Secondly, 2–5% of the field is of external origin and is because of movements of charged particles in the space around the Earth.

Advances in Geophysics↗

USGS2012

Excitation of a buried magmatic pipe: A seismic source model for volcanic tremor

Recent observations of seismic events at various volcanoes suggest that harmonic tremor results from the sustained occurrence of so-called long-period or low-frequency events. Accordingly, we can view the long-period volcanic event as the elementary process of tremor and interpret it as the impulse response of the tremor-generating system. We present a seismic model in which the source of tremor is the acoustic resonance of a fluid-filled volcanic pipe triggered by excess gas pressure. The model consists of three elements, namely, a triggering mechanism, a resonator, and a radiator. For simplicity, we assume a hemispherical trigger, cylindrial resonator, and circular radiator set in a vertical configuration with the trigger capping the top of the pipe and the disk-shaped radiator shutting off its bottom. Considering the simple case of a source buried in a homogeneous half space, we then apply the discrete wave number method to obtain a complete representation of the ground motion response at near and intermediate distances. The results demonstrate that the displacement attributed to the pipe dominates the near-field motion, while that due to the disk is representative of the intermediate and far fields. The trigger itself has a smaller contribution, mainly limited to the field in the proximity of the source. The characteristics displayed by the free surface response evolve from a strong impulsive signature in the immediate vicinity of the epicenter to a well-developed harmonic wave train dominated by Rayleigh waves at larger distances. No clear shear arrival can be detected in the synthetic seismograms. The displacement spectrum reflects the organ-pipe modes of the conduit, and the bandwidth associated with the dominant spectral peak of motion is controlled by the combined losses due to viscous attenuation in the fluid and elastic radiation into the solid. In the case of the cylindrical magma column considered, the radiation loss is proportional to the square of the pipe radius, while the loss related to viscous damping is inversely proportional to the same factor, indicating that the relative importance of the two loss mechanisms is critically dependent on the geometry of the magma reservoir. The relative importance of the pipe and disk elements, likewise, is a function of the conduit cross section. This suggests the possibility of determining the geometry of the source as well as the radiation loss and in situ magma viscosity from a comparison of near- and far-field observations.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Real-time control of the robotic lunar observatory telescope

The US Geological Survey operates an automated observatory dedicated to the radiometry of the Moon with the objective of developing a multispectral, spatially resolved photometric model of the Moon to be used in the calibration of Earth-orbiting spacecraft. Interference filters are used with two imaging instruments to observe the Moon in 32 passbands from 350-2500 nm. Three computers control the telescope mount and instruments with a fourth computer acting as a master system to control all observation activities. Real-time control software has been written to operate the instrumentation and to automate the observing process. The observing software algorithms use information including the positions of objects in the sky, the phase of the Moon, and the times of evening and morning twilight to decide how to observe program objects. The observatory has been operating in a routine mode since late 1995 and is expected to continue through at least 2002 without significant modifications.

Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pa↗

USGS1971

Upper Cenozoic basalts with high Sr87/Sr86 and Sr/Rb ratios, southern Great Basin, western United States

Upper Cenozoic basalts from southwestern Nevada and east-central California are unusually rich in both strontium (~ 1,200 ppm) and Sr 87 (initial Sr 87 /Sr 86 ~ 0.707). The average Rb/Sr ratio of these basalts is too low to have generated the observed Sr 87 /Sr 86 ratio during the 4.6 b.y. of the Earth's existence, and the high strontium contents and low Rb/Sr ratios effectively rule out introduction to the basalts of the high Sr 87 /Sr 86 values through contamination by more radiogenic material during ascent through the crust. Instead, the basalts must have been derived from unusual mantle material in which an originally high Rb/Sr ratio was markedly lowered during an earlier phase of magmatic activity.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2016

Geologic map of the Valdez D-1 and D-2 quadrangles (Mount Wrangell Volcano), Alaska

Geologic Note Mount Wrangell (elev. 4,317 m) is the youngest and only active volcano in the Oligocene to Holocene-aged Wrangell volcanic field that extends from beyond the Alaska-Yukon border northwest through the Wrangell Mountains to the Copper River Basin. The volcano is a very large (900 km 3 ) broad shield containing an ice-filled, nonexplosive, collapse caldera measuring 3.2 by 5.6 kilometers. Three known craters, the West, North, and East occur along the north and west margins of the caldera; the caldera is open to the southeast. The volcano is best exposed on its southwest flank (this map area) where a number of deep glaciated canyons cut through hundreds of meters of shield lava flows creating routes for younger, valley-filling lava flows. The shield extends north into the Gulkana A-1 quadrangle, northeast into the Nabesna A-6 quadrangle, and east into the McCarthy quadrangle where it is almost entirely covered by ice. The present extent of the Mount Wrangell shield showing the entire caldera and locations of the three summit craters is depicted in figure 1. Mount Wrangell was built rapidly beginning about 650 ka by the outpourings of hundreds of voluminous lava flows from a vent, or vents, apparently in the present summit area. By 200 ka to 300 ka, activity waned and only an occasional lava flow coursed down the glacially carved valleys radiating from the summit or flowed over the upper summit area above the heads of the glacial valleys. The youngest dated valley-fill lava flow is approximately 25,000 years old; one or two undated flows may be younger. In historical times there have been several reports of lava flows issuing from the summit area. The most reliable and convincing of these were two independent observations from Copper Center, Alaska on September 3, 1899 that described great earth movements (the 1899 Yakutat Bay earthquake) followed by an eruption at Mount Wrangell’s summit, consisting of vigorous ash emission and flowing lava on the volcano’s northwest flank. This eruptive activity apparently continued for several years after the earthquake, as a photo taken around 1901–02 shows a large part of Mount Wrangell’s summit blanketed by ash. During this study, no evidence of young lava flows in the region were found, although it is very possible that a small-volume flow could be entirely hidden by snow and ice in the 100 years since the event. However, abundant juvenile andesitic pumice was found on the upper Chetaslina Glacier, strongly supporting a very young pyroclastic eruption. In addition to the 1899–1902 eruptions there have been accounts of strong ash-producing activity on at least four different occasions: 1912, July 3, 1921, April 6, 1930, and February 20, 1982. Of these, the 1921 activity was the most spectacular, and possibly erupted from the northeast side of the summit caldera. Present activity is limited to fumaroles in North and West Crater at the summit, at the summit ridge near East Crater, and at two localities at an elevation of 3,657 m on the southwest flank. The summit fumaroles frequently give rise to visible steam plumes, and occasionally sporadic explosive phreatic activity in North and West Crater will put a thin dusting of ash on the summit ice. This study was directed toward Mount Wrangell volcano and the older Wrangell volcanic field rocks that underlie the volcano. These older lavas include the Chetaslina lavas (867 ka–1,650 ka) and a basaltic andesite–dacite center (1,590 ka–1,640 ka) whose source areas are not well defined. Older Paleozoic and Mesozoic sedimentary, igneous, and metamorphic rocks of the Wrangellia terrane underlie the entire Wrangell volcanic field.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Petrology of volcanic rocks associated with silver-gold (Ag-Au) epithermal deposits in the Tonopah, Divide, and Goldfield Mining Districts, Nevada

Miocene calc-alkaline volcanic rocks, part of the southern segment of the ancestral Cascades magmatic arc, are spatially, temporally, and likely genetically associated with precious metal epithermal deposits in the Tonopah, Divide, and Goldfield Districts of west-central Nevada. In the Tonopah mining district, volcanic rocks include the Mizpah Trachyte, Fraction Tuff, and Oddie Rhyolite; in the Divide mining district, they include the Heller Tuff, Brougher Rhyolite, trachyandesite of Red Mountain, Divide Andesite, and volcanics of Donovan Peak (which includes rhyolite, dacite, and rhyodacite units); in the Goldfield mining district they include the Milltown Andesite, an unnamed porphyritic andesite, and latite. All these rocks are porphyritic and contain phenocryst assemblages that include plagioclase, pyroxene, hornblende, biotite, quartz, alkali feldspar, and olivine. These mostly subalkaline, metaluminous, calc-alkalic, and magnesian rocks range from basaltic trachyandesite to rhyolite and contain 54 to 78 weight percent silicon dioxide. In the Divide mining district, the Divide Andesite and the volcanics of Donovan Peak are compositionally distinct from volcanic rocks in the other two mining districts. These rocks define a somewhat more restricted range of silicon dioxide content; are more alkalic; have greater titanium dioxide, sodium oxide, barium, hafnium, lanthanum, niobium, tantalum, yttrium, ytterbium, and zirconium abundances; and lower magnesium oxide, strontium, and vanadium abundances. Elevated zirconium contents are particularly characteristic of these rocks, which are also distinctly younger than most of the rocks in the other two mining districts. The alkalic character (principally higher sodium oxide abundances) and elevated zirconium contents characteristic of the Divide Andesite and the volcanics of Donovan Peak suggest that distinctive sources and (or) processes contributed to the petrogenesis of these rocks. In the Tonopah, Divide, and Goldfield mining districts the geochemistry of Oligocene and Miocene volcanic rocks constrain the processes that contributed to the petrogenesis of these rocks. Specifically, major oxide compositional variation among these rocks is consistent with crystallization and fractionation of the observed phenocryst minerals. In addition, these rocks have negatively sloping rare-earth element patterns consistent with partial melting in a high-pressure, garnet stable regime. Elevated strontium concentrations and small negative europium anomalies are consistent with partial melting in a plagioclase-unstable setting. However, larger negative europium anomalies among the more silica-rich volcanic rocks indicates a progressively greater role for plagioclase fractionation among these rocks. The importance of hornblende in the petrogenesis of these rocks is reflected in subtly U-shaped middle rare-earth element pattern segments. Increasing lead/cerium and decreasing phosphorus pentoxide/potassium oxide with increasing silicon dioxide are characteristic of these volcanic rocks. These characteristics and their distinctive pre-Cenozoic xenolith content suggest a significant role for crustal contamination in their petrogenesis. Diagnostic textural features preserved by phenocrysts, especially plagioclase, constitute additional evidence that open-system behavior, including reservoir-scale mixing, recharge, and assimilation, was critical to the petrogenesis of volcanic rocks in the Tonopah, Divide, and Goldfield mining districts.

Nevada↗

USGS2011

Seismically observed seiching in the Panama Canal

A large portion of the seismic noise spectrum is dominated by water wave energy coupled into the solid Earth. Distinct mechanisms of water wave induced ground motions are distinguished by their spectral content. For example, cultural noise is generally <1 s period, microseisms dominate the seismic spectrum from periods of 2 to 20 s, and the Earth's "hum" is in the range of 50 to 600 s. We show that in a large lake in the Panama Canal there is an additional source of long-period noise generated by standing water waves, seiches, induced by disturbances such as passing ships and wind pressure. We compare seismic waveforms to water level records and relate these observations to changes in local tilt and gravity due to an oscillating seiche. The methods and observations discussed in this paper provide a first step toward quantifying the impact of water inundation as recorded by seismometers. This type of quantified understanding of water inundation will help in future estimates of similar phenomena such as the seismic observations of tsunami impact. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2009

Constructing constitutive relationships for seismic and aseismic fault slip

For the purpose of modeling natural fault slip, a useful result from an experimental fault mechanics study would be a physically-based constitutive relation that well characterizes all the relevant observations. This report describes an approach for constructing such equations. Where possible the construction intends to identify or, at least, attribute physical processes and contact scale physics to the observations such that the resulting relations can be extrapolated in conditions and scale between the laboratory and the Earth. The approach is developed as an alternative but is based on Ruina (1983) and is illustrated initially by constructing a couple of relations from that study. In addition, two example constitutive relationships are constructed; these describe laboratory observations not well-modeled by Ruina's equations: the unexpected shear-induced weakening of silica-rich rocks at high slip speed (Goldsby and Tullis, 2002) and fault strength in the brittle ductile transition zone (Shimamoto, 1986). The examples, provided as illustration, may also be useful for quantitative modeling.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2014

Mineral evolution and Earth history

The field of mineral evolution—a merger of mineralogy and Earth history—coalesced in 2008 with the first of several global syntheses by Robert Hazen and coworkers in the American Mineralogist. They showed that the cumulative abundance of mineral species has a stepwise trend with first appearances tied to various transitions in Earth history such as the end of planetary accretion at ca. 4.55 Ga and the onset of bio-mediated mineralogy at ca. >2.5 Ga. A global age distribution is best established for zircon. Observed abundance of zircon fluctuates through more than an order of magnitude during successive supercontinent cycles. The pulse of the Earth is also recorded, albeit imperfectly, by the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr composition of marine biogenic calcite; the Sr-isotopic ratio of this mineral reflects the balance of inputs of primitive strontium at mid-ocean ridges and evolved strontium that drains off the continents. A global mineral evolution database, currently in the works, will greatly facilitate the compilation and analysis of extant data and the expansion of research in mineralogy outside its traditional bounds and into more interdisciplinary realms.

American Mineralogist↗

USGS1957

Systematic variation of rare-earth elements in cerium-earth minerals

In a continuation of a study reported previously, rare-earth elements and thorium have been determined in monazite, allanite, cerite, bastnaesite, and a number of miscellaneous cerium-earth minerals. A quantity called sigma (∑), which is the sum of the atomic percentages of La, Ce, and Pr, is proposed as an index of composition of all cerium-earth minerals with respect to the rare-earth elements. The value of ∑ for all of the minerals analysed falls between 58 and 92 atomic per cent. Monazites, allanites, and cerites cover the entire observed range, whereas bastnaesites are sharply restricted to the range between 80 and 92 atomic per cent. The minimum value of ∑ for a cerium-earth mineral corresponds to the smallest possible unit-cell size of the mineral. In monazite, this structurally controlled minimum value of ∑ is estimated to be around 30 atomic per cent. Neodymium, because of its abundance, and yttrium, because of its small size, have dominant roles in contraction of the structure. In the other direction, the limit of variation in composition will be reached when lanthanum becomes the sole rare-earth element in a cerium-earth mineral. Cerium-earth minerals from alkalic rocks are all characterized by values of ∑ greater than 80 atomic per cent, indicating that the processes that formed these rocks were unusually efficient in fractionating the rare-earth elements—efficient in the sense that a highly selected assemblage is produced without eliminating the bulk of these elements. Analyses of inner and outer parts of two large crystals of monazite from different deposits show no difference in ∑ in one crystal and a slightly smaller value of ∑ in the outer part of the other crystal compared to the inner part. The ∑ of monazites from pegmatites that intrude genetically related granitic rocks in North Carolina is found to be either higher or lower than the ∑ of monazites in the intruded host rock. These results indicate that the fractionation of the rare-earth elements is not a simple unidirectional process. When a cerium-earth mineral undergoes replacement, its rare-earth elements may be fractionated into two parts, one forming a new mineral with ∑ that is smaller, and the other a second new mineral with ∑ that is larger than that of the original mineral. The complete analysis of a cerium-earth mineral to determine its ∑ is time consuming. The discovery of a direct relationship between ∑ and the Ce/(Nd + Y) atomic ratio in cerium earth minerals allows a rapid determination of ∑ from spectrograms obtained in a previously described method for determining thorium in these minerals.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS1996

Galileo photometry of asteroid 243 Ida

Galileo imaging observations over phase angles 19.5?? to 109.8?? are combined with near-opposition Earth-based data to derive the photometric properties of Ida. To first order these properties are uniform over the surface and well modeled at ?? = 0.55 ??m by Hapke parameters ????0 = 0.22, h = 0.020, B0 = 1.5, g = -0.33, and ?? = 18?? with corresponding geometric albedo p = 0.21??0.030.01 and Bond albedo AB = 0.081??0.0170.008. Ida's photometric properties are more similar to those of "average S-asteroids" (P. Helfenstein and J. Veverka 1989, Asteroids II, Univ. of Arizona Press, Tucson) than are those of 951 Gaspra. Two primary color units are identified on Ida: Terrain A exhibits a spectrum with relatively shallower 1-??m absorption and a relatively steeper red spectral slope than average Ida, while Terrain B has a deeper 1-??m absorption and a less steep red slope. The average photometric properties of Ida and Terrain A are similar while those of Terrain B differ mostly in having a slightly higher value of ????0 (0.22 versus 0.21), suggesting that Terrain B consists of slightly brighter, more transparent regolith particles. Galileo observations of Ida's satellite Dactyl over phase angles 19.5?? to 47.6?? suggest photometric characteristics similar to those of Ida, the major difference being Dactyl's slightly lower albedo (0.20 compared to 0.21). ?? 1990 Academic Press, Inc.

Icarus↗

USGS1976

Progress in remote sensing (1972-1976)

This report concerns the progress in remote sensing during the period 1972–1976. Remote sensing has been variously defined but is basically the art or science of telling something about an object without touching it. During the past four years, the major research thrusts have been in three areas: (1) computer-assisted enhancement and interpretation systems; (2) earth science applications of Landsat data; (3) and investigations of the usefulness of observations of luminescence, thermal infrared, and microwave energies. Based on the data sales at the EROS Data Center, the largest users of the Landsat data are industrial companies, followed by government agencies (both national and foreign), and academic institutions. Thermal surveys from aircraft have become largely operational, however, significant research is being undertaken in the field of thermal modeling and analysis of high altitude images. Microwave research is increasing rapidly and programs are being developed for satellite observations. Microwave research is concentrating on oil spill detection, soil moisture measurement, and observations of ice distributions. Luminescence investigations offer promise for becoming a quantitative method of assessing vegetation stress and pollutant concentrations.

Photogrammetria↗

USGS2012

Interactive terrain visualization enables virtual field work during rapid scientific response to the 2010 Haiti earthquake

The moment magnitude (M w ) 7.0 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake is the first major earthquake for which a large-footprint LiDAR (light detection and ranging) survey was acquired within several weeks of the event. Here, we describe the use of virtual reality data visualization to analyze massive amounts (67 GB on disk) of multiresolution terrain data during the rapid scientific response to a major natural disaster. In particular, we describe a method for conducting virtual field work using both desktop computers and a 4-sided, 22 m 3 CAVE immersive virtual reality environment, along with KeckCAVES (Keck Center for Active Visualization in the Earth Sciences) software tools LiDAR Viewer, to analyze LiDAR point-cloud data, and Crusta, for 2.5 dimensional surficial geologic mapping on a bare-earth digital elevation model. This system enabled virtual field work that yielded remote observations of the topographic expression of active faulting within an ∼75-km-long section of the eastern Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault spanning the 2010 epicenter. Virtual field observations indicated that the geomorphic evidence of active faulting and ancient surface rupture varies along strike. Landform offsets of 6–50 m along the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault east of the 2010 epicenter and closest to Port-au-Prince attest to repeated recent surface-rupturing earthquakes there. In the west, the fault trace is well defined by displaced landforms, but it is not as clear as in the east. The 2010 epicenter is within a transition zone between these sections that extends from Grand Goâve in the west to Fayette in the east. Within this transition, between L'Acul (lat 72°40′W) and the Rouillone River (lat 72°35′W), the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault is undefined along an embayed low-relief range front, with little evidence of recent surface rupture. Based on the geometry of the eastern and western faults that show evidence of recent surface rupture, we propose that the 2010 event occurred within a stepover that appears to have served as a long-lived boundary between rupture segments, explaining the lack of 2010 surface rupture. This study demonstrates how virtual reality–based data visualization has the potential to transform rapid scientific response by enabling virtual field studies and real-time interactive analysis of massive terrain data sets.

Geosphere↗

USGS2012

The new IASPEI standards for determining magnitudes from digital data and their relation to classical magnitudes

Why there is a need for measurement standards of magnitudes: In October 2005, the Commission on Seismic Observation and Interpretation of the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth´s Interior (IASPEI) adopted the summary recommendations made by the IASPEI Working Group on Magnitudes on new measurement standards for widely used local, regional and teleseismic magnitude scales (IASPEI, 2005). These recommendations have recently been refined and detailed (IASPEI, 2013) and a final scientific report, to be published in a reputable international journal, is currently under preparation.

Book chapter↗

USGS1969

Temporal variation of alkaline earth element/chlorinity ratios in the sargasso sea

An open ocean hydrographic station located 14 miles SE of the Bermuda Islands was sampled at two week intervals through a vertical profile of 2600 meters and over the period June 1966 to March 1967. 428 samples were analyzed for Ca, Mg, Sr and chlorinity. Large temporal variations in element/chlorinity ratios were observed throughout the water column.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2017

The finite, kinematic rupture properties of great-sized earthquakes since 1990

Here, I present a database of >160 finite fault models for all earthquakes of M 7.5 and above since 1990, created using a consistent modeling approach. The use of a common approach facilitates easier comparisons between models, and reduces uncertainties that arise when comparing models generated by different authors, data sets and modeling techniques. I use this database to verify published scaling relationships, and for the first time show a clear and intriguing relationship between maximum potency (the product of slip and area) and average potency for a given earthquake. This relationship implies that earthquakes do not reach the potential size given by the tectonic load of a fault (sometimes called “moment deficit,” calculated via a plate rate over time since the last earthquake, multiplied by geodetic fault coupling). Instead, average potency (or slip) scales with but is less than maximum potency (dictated by tectonic loading). Importantly, this relationship facilitates a more accurate assessment of maximum earthquake size for a given fault segment, and thus has implications for long-term hazard assessments. The relationship also suggests earthquake cycles may not completely reset after a large earthquake, and thus repeat rates of such events may appear shorter than is expected from tectonic loading. This in turn may help explain the phenomenon of “earthquake super-cycles” observed in some global subduction zones.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗