SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Climate Change Ecology”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Promoting synergy in the innovative use of environmental data—Workshop summary

From December 2 to 4, 2015, NatureServe and the U.S. Geological Survey organized and hosted a biodiversity and ecological informatics workshop at the U.S. Department of the Interior in Washington, D.C. The workshop objective was to identify user-driven future directions and areas of collaboration in advanced applications of environmental data applied to forecasting and decision making for the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Substantial effort to recruit attendees from diverse Federal, State, and private sector organizations successfully attracted participants from 20 Federal agencies and 48 different institutions in the academic, nonprofit, State government, and commercial sectors; the total number of attendees ranged from 100 to 144 during the 3-day workshop. The first one-half of the workshop was divided into 7 plenary sessions and 3 sets of lightning talk sessions organized by sector, providing 48 oral and visual plenary presentations that shared diverse perspectives on biodiversity and ecological informatics, including original biospatial analyses from 6 graduate student map contest winners. The second one-half of the workshop focused on 10 breakout sessions with participant-driven themes from the environmental data sphere and concluded with an address by the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The workshop was structured to encourage interactivity. About 80–90 percent of attendees provided direct feedback using clicker devices for specific questions related to biodiversity and ecological data uses and needs, and 10 breakout session leaders shared the highlights of their group discussions during the final workshop plenary sessions. Participants were encouraged to use the Twitter hashtag #ShareUrData. Over lunch on day 2 there were 20 simultaneous presentations of tools and apps during a special “Tools Café” session. The 10 participant-defined breakout session topics are listed below: Ecosystem services and ecological indicators Inventory and monitoring Biogeographic map of the Nation Pollinators Invasive species Remote sensing Drivers of agricultural change Citizen science Climate Hydrology and watersheds Numerous common themes that emerged from the workshop include the following: The vital importance of completing foundational environmental datasets that are nationally consistent and are essential to multiple sectors, such as the Soil Survey Geographic database high-resolution soils data, a minimum 5-meter resolution digital elevation model, national hydrographic data, high-resolution land cover data, time series high-resolution spatial climate data from historical to future time steps, and a national wetland inventory. Improved, nationally consistent environmental datasets (integrated with targeted observations) will dramatically advance forecasting capacity and support early warning systems (that is, drought, forest disease); however, multiagency coordination should focus on decision support tools that convey appropriate actions and responses to adapt to, and mitigate, potential negative consequences. Digitizing and providing access to the vast stores of underused historical data that can be leveraged for this purpose is of national importance. Modern computational techniques and the ever-increasing flow of environmental data from ground and remote observations can support improved understanding of environmental change. Success of understanding patterns of change for decision making requires establishing baselines from which change can be measured. The value of digitized historical data is greater than ever before. There is a need to recognize the multifaceted potential of citizen science to engage the public in resource stewardship, to create the next generation of science, technology, engineering, math, and environmental leaders, and to have sufficient field personnel to monitor environmental trends, including early detection of alien invasive species, phenological shifts, shifting distribution and abundance of indicator species, and species inventories. The Federal government has an essential role in creating the infrastructure to dramatically improve mobilization of citizen science (and other) data by fostering the following: creation of data standards, creation of nationally consistent framework datasets, vertical integration of observation data, visualization and dissemination of aggregated datasets, and calculation and communication of derived trends. Current and near future trends in the availability of remotely sensed data (rapid expansion of satellite fleets and drones) is revolutionizing access to near-real-time ecological data. Targeted integration with ground-based observations and instrumentation has an extremely valuable role in validating remotely sensed data, filling data gaps, improving data quality, and fully realizing the potential of the near-real-time monitoring of environmental indicator trends. Integrated management of environmental data at the landscape scale is required even as specific actions on the ground are largely local in nature. The workshop highlighted numerous success stories; however, almost every breakout group pointed out the still-too-fragmented nature of the current data landscape. Management and delivery of the necessary data, tools, and analyses to sustain our Nation’s environmental capital must be a collaborative effort between Federal, State, and local governments, academia, nonprofits, and the commercial sector, even though the responsibilities of each sector are different.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

A trait-based framework for predicting when and where microbial adaptation to climate change will affect ecosystem functioning

As the earth system changes in response to human activities, a critical objective is to predict how biogeochemical process rates (e.g. nitrification, decomposition) and ecosystem function (e.g. net ecosystem productivity) will change under future conditions. A particular challenge is that the microbial communities that drive many of these processes are capable of adapting to environmental change in ways that alter ecosystem functioning. Despite evidence that microbes can adapt to temperature, precipitation regimes, and redox fluctuations, microbial communities are typically not optimally adapted to their local environment. For example, temperature optima for growth and enzyme activity are often greater than in situ temperatures in their environment. Here we discuss fundamental constraints on microbial adaptation and suggest specific environments where microbial adaptation to climate change (or lack thereof) is most likely to alter ecosystem functioning. Our framework is based on two principal assumptions. First, there are fundamental ecological trade-offs in microbial community traits that occur across environmental gradients (in time and space). These trade-offs result in shifting of microbial function (e.g. ability to take up resources at low temperature) in response to adaptation of another trait (e.g. limiting maintenance respiration at high temperature). Second, the mechanism and level of microbial community adaptation to changing environmental parameters is a function of the potential rate of change in community composition relative to the rate of environmental change. Together, this framework provides a basis for developing testable predictions about how the rate and degree of microbial adaptation to climate change will alter biogeochemical processes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across the planet.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2015

Persistence at distributional edges: Columbia spotted frog habitat in the arid Great Basin, USA

A common challenge in the conservation of broadly distributed, yet imperiled species is understanding which factors facilitate persistence at distributional edges, locations where populations are often vulnerable to extirpation due to changes in climate, land use, or distributions of other species. For Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) in the Great Basin (USA), a genetically distinct population segment of conservation concern, we approached this problem by examining (1) landscape-scale habitat availability and distribution, (2) water body-scale habitat associations, and (3) resource management-identified threats to persistence. We found that areas with perennial aquatic habitat and suitable climate are extremely limited in the southern portion of the species’ range. Within these suitable areas, native and non-native predators (trout and American bullfrogs [Lithobates catesbeianus]) are widespread and may further limit habitat availability in upper- and lower-elevation areas, respectively. At the water body scale, spotted frog occupancy was associated with deeper sites containing abundant emergent vegetation and nontrout fish species. Streams with American beaver (Castor canadensis) frequently had these structural characteristics and were significantly more likely to be occupied than ponds, lakes, streams without beaver, or streams with inactive beaver ponds, highlighting the importance of active manipulation of stream environments by beaver. Native and non-native trout reduced the likelihood of spotted frog occupancy, especially where emergent vegetation cover was sparse. Intensive livestock grazing, low aquatic connectivity, and ephemeral hydroperiods were also negatively associated with spotted frog occupancy. We conclude that persistence of this species at the arid end of its range has been largely facilitated by habitat stability (i.e., permanent hydroperiod), connectivity, predator-free refugia, and a commensalistic interaction with an ecosystem engineer. Beaver-induced changes to habitat quality, stability, and connectivity may increase spotted frog population resistance and resilience to seasonal drought, grazing, non-native predators, and climate change, factors which threaten local or regional persistence.

California, Idaho, Oregon, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2016

Landscape composition creates a threshold influencing Lesser Prairie-Chicken population resilience to extreme drought

Habitat loss and degradation compound the effects of climate change on wildlife, yet responses to climate and land cover change are often quantified independently. The interaction between climate and land cover change could be intensified in the Great Plains region where grasslands are being converted to row-crop agriculture concurrent with increased frequency of extreme drought events. We quantified the combined effects of land cover and climate change on a species of conservation concern in the Great Plains, the Lesser Prairie-Chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ). We combined extreme drought events and land cover change with lek count surveys in a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify changes in abundance of male Lesser Prairie-Chickens from 1978 to 2014 in Kansas, the core of their species range. Our estimates of abundance indicate a gradually decreasing population through 2010 corresponding to drought events and reduced grassland areas. Decreases in Lesser Prairie-Chicken abundance were greatest in areas with increasing row-crop to grassland land cover ratio during extreme drought events, and decreased grassland reduces the resilience of Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations to extreme drought events. A threshold exists for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in response to the gradient of cropland:grassland land cover. When moving across the gradient of grassland to cropland, abundance initially increased in response to more cropland on the landscape, but declined in response to more cropland after the threshold ( δ=0.096 , or 9.6% cropland). Preservation of intact grasslands and continued implementation of initiatives to revert cropland to grassland should increase Lesser Prairie-Chicken resilience to extreme drought events due to climate change.

Kansas↗

USGS2023

Patterns and controls of foliar nutrient stoichiometry and flexibility across United States forests

Plant element stoichiometry and stoichiometric flexibility strongly regulate ecosystem responses to global change. Here, we tested three potential mechanistic drivers (climate, soil nutrients, and plant taxonomy) of both using paired foliar and soil nutrient data from terrestrial forested National Ecological Observatory Network sites across the USA. We found that broad patterns of foliar nitrogen (N) and foliar phosphorus (P) are explained by different mechanisms. Plant taxonomy was an important control over all foliar nutrient stoichiometries and concentrations, especially foliar N, which was dominantly related to taxonomy and did not vary across climate or soil gradients. Despite a lack of site-level correlations between N and environment variables, foliar N exhibited intraspecific flexibility, with numerous species-specific correlations between foliar N and various environmental factors, demonstrating the variable spatial and temporal scales on which foliar chemistry and stoichiometric flexibility can manifest. In addition to plant taxonomy, foliar P and N:P ratios were also linked to soil nutrient status (extractable P) and climate, especially actual evapotranspiration rates. Our findings highlight the myriad factors that influence foliar chemistry and show that broad patterns cannot be explained by a single consistent mechanism. Furthermore, differing controls over foliar N versus P suggests that each may be sensitive to global change drivers on distinct spatial and temporal scales, potentially resulting in altered ecosystem N:P ratios that have implications for processes ranging from productivity to carbon sequestration.

Ecology↗

USGS2024

Environmental variation structures reproduction and recruitment in long-lived mega-herbivores: Galapagos giant tortoises

Migratory, long-lived animals are an important focus for life-history theory because they manifest extreme trade-offs in life-history traits: delayed maturity, low fecundity, variable recruitment rates, long generation times, and vital rates that respond to variation across environments. Galapagos tortoises are an iconic example: they are long-lived, migrate seasonally, face multiple anthropogenic threats, and have cryptic early life-history stages for which vital rates are unknown. From 2012 to 2021, we studied the reproductive ecology of two species of Galapagos tortoises ( Chelonoidis porteri and C. donfaustoi ) along elevation gradients that coincided with substantial changes in climate and vegetation productivity. Specifically, we (1) measured the body and reproductive condition of 166 adult females, (2) tracked the movements of 33 adult females using global positioning system telemetry, and monitored their body condition seasonally, (3) recorded nest temperatures, clutch characteristics, and egg survival from 107 nests, and (4) used radiotelemetry to monitor growth, survival, and movements of 104 hatchlings. We also monitored temperature and rainfall from field sites, and remotely sensed primary productivity along the elevation gradient. Our study showed that environmental variability, mediated by elevation, influenced vital rates of giant tortoises, specifically egg production by adult females and juvenile recruitment. Adult females were either elevational migrants or year-round lowland residents. Migrants had higher body condition than residents, and body condition was positively correlated with the probability of being gravid. Nests occurred in the hottest, driest parts of the tortoise's range, between 6 and 165 m elevation. Clutch size increased with elevation, whereas egg survival decreased. Hatchling survival and growth were highest at intermediate elevations. Hatchlings dispersed rapidly to 100–750 m from their nests before becoming sedentary (ranging over <0.2 ha). Predicted future climates may impact the relationships between elevation and vital rates of Galapagos tortoises and other species living across elevation gradients. Resilience will be maximized by ensuring the connectivity of foraging and reproductive areas within the current and possible future elevational ranges of these species.

Galapagos Islands, Santa Cruz Island↗

USGS2016

Ecology and conservation of Lesser Prairie-Chickens in sand shinnery oak prairies

Sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii) prairies are unique ecosystems endemic to sandy soils of eastern New Mexico, northwestern Texas, and western Oklahoma; the historic and current distribution of the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) overlaps these prairie systems. Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations in sand shinnery oak prairies of the Southern Great Plains have declined substantially since the late 1980s, most likely due to conversion of nesting and brood-rearing habitat to row-crop agriculture and extended periods of drought. In addition to threats universal throughout the species distribution, this population is susceptible to a changing climate in an area that is already representative of an extreme environment for ground-nesting birds. Recent studies of Lesser Prairie-Chicken ecology in sand shinnery oak prairies have expanded our knowledge on the ecology and management of the species, but a thorough review of the historic and current literature is lacking. In addition, current management guidelines exist for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in mixed grass and sand sagebrush prairies, but there are no comprehensive management guidelines for the species in sand shinnery oak prairies. This information is paramount given unique aspects of the vegetation community, relative ecosystem drivers, and environmental variation in sand shinnery oak prairie and the species’ current status as a proposed threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. Herein, we provide a thorough synthesis of literature pertaining to the life history, habitat requirements, habitat management, and population management for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in sand shinnery oak prairie, provide management guidelines and recommendations for the species in this ecoregion, and highlight current and future research needs. Within our objectives, we place emphasis on two recently completed long-term investigations into Lesser Prairie-Chicken ecology in sand shinnery oak prairie - a 10-year vegetation data set collected in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, 2001–2011 and a 6-year Lesser Prairie-Chicken data set collected in Roosevelt County, New Mexico and Cochran, Hockley, Terry, and Yoakum counties, Texas, 2006–2012.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Capturing interactions between nitrogen and hydrological cycles under historical climate and land use: Susquehanna watershed analysis with the GFDL land model LM3-TAN

We developed a process model LM3-TAN to assess the combined effects of direct human influences and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen (TAN) cycling. The model was developed by expanding NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land model LM3V-N of coupled terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (C-N) cycling and including new N cycling processes and inputs such as a soil denitrification, point N sources to streams (i.e., sewage), and stream transport and microbial processes. Because the model integrates ecological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes, it captures key controls of the transport and fate of N in the vegetation–soil–river system in a comprehensive and consistent framework which is responsive to climatic variations and land-use changes. We applied the model at 1/8° resolution for a study of the Susquehanna River Basin. We simulated with LM3-TAN stream dissolved organic-N, ammonium-N, and nitrate-N loads throughout the river network, and we evaluated the modeled loads for 1986–2005 using data from 16 monitoring stations as well as a reported budget for the entire basin. By accounting for interannual hydrologic variability, the model was able to capture interannual variations of stream N loadings. While the model was calibrated with the stream N loads only at the last downstream Susquehanna River Basin Commission station Marietta (40°02' N, 76°32' W), it captured the N loads well at multiple locations within the basin with different climate regimes, land-use types, and associated N sources and transformations in the sub-basins. Furthermore, the calculated and previously reported N budgets agreed well at the level of the whole Susquehanna watershed. Here we illustrate how point and non-point N sources contributing to the various ecosystems are stored, lost, and exported via the river. Local analysis of six sub-basins showed combined effects of land use and climate on soil denitrification rates, with the highest rates in the Lower Susquehanna Sub-Basin (extensive agriculture; Atlantic coastal climate) and the lowest rates in the West Branch Susquehanna Sub-Basin (mostly forest; Great Lakes and Midwest climate). In the re-growing secondary forests, most of the N from non-point sources was stored in the vegetation and soil, but in the agricultural lands most N inputs were removed by soil denitrification, indicating that anthropogenic N applications could drive substantial increase of N 2 O emission, an intermediate of the denitrification process.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2023

Aging, climate, and invasions threaten reservoirs in the Mississippi basin

Reservoirs in the Mississippi River basin are facing three momentous threats. The first two, aging and climate change, are relatively slow moving and their signal can be hard to discern given their stretched temporal scales. The third, species invasions, is faster paced and discernable within shorter temporal scales and restricted spatial scales. Aging and climate directly affect reservoir environments and indirectly affect their biotic communities. Climate change is expected to interact with aging to speed up and, in some instances, slow down aging. Conversely, invasions primarily imperil biotic communities but can also impact environmental elements. This triple jeopardy is expected to transform reservoir environs and their biotic assemblages in various, often uncertain, ways. I take a broad view of these threats within the Mississippi River basin. A basin-scale perspective, in contrast to a single reservoir or regional scale, may enhance awareness of reservoirs at a larger level and produce understanding less evident at local levels, hence possibly offering a wider range of choices for confronting threats. My aim is to (1) provide a synopsis of the assemblage of reservoirs and their attributes over the Mississippi River basin, (2) describe the issues related to aging, climate change, and invasions, and (3) consider a conservation framework for confronting these pressures. Given the overlapping temporal, spatial, and ecological effects of these threats, it is essential to address their effects simultaneously.

Mississippi River basin↗

USGS2009

Fires and landscape conservation in mediterranean ecosystems

Protected areas are some of the last remaining areas on Earth where fire can play its natural role at a landscape-scale. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has developed a system for categorizing protected areas. The role fire can play in the various categories depends on the management objectives of the category, the size of the individual units, and the laws and policies of the country in which the unit is located. An analysis of all the IUCN protected areas showed that 505 areas had the potential for conserving landscape fire. Areas in Europe, Africa, South America, Australia, and North America show promise for being able to include fire in the conservation of landscapes. Examples from South Africa, Australia, and the United States show how fire can be incorporated at the landscape scale. Future challenges include increasing urban encroachment, climate change, and air pollution. Society will have to deal with these challenges if fire is to continue its essential ecological role in Mediterranean ecosystems.

Book chapter↗

USGS2024

Ohi'a lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha): A most resilient and persistent foundation species in Hawaiian forests

Metrosideros polymorpha (‘ōhi‘a, ‘ōhi‘a lehua) is an important foundation species in Hawaiian forest habitats. The genus originated in New Zealand and was dispersed to the Hawaiian archipelago approximately 3.9 million years ago. It evolved into five distinct endemic species and one of these, Metrosideros polymorpha , further differentiated into eight varieties across what are now the main Hawaiian Islands. ‘Ōhi‘a is a tree that has great significance in indigenous Hawaiian culture. It is considered a physical manifestation of several principal Hawaiian deities, and serves a broad range of uses in Hawaiian material culture. It occupies a wide diversity of habitats, extending from sea level to over 2,200 m elevation, occupying habitats that range from extremely wet to dry rainfall zones. It is the dominant or co-dominant tree species in wet and mesic forests and is also one of the first woody species to become established on young lava flows. Although ‘ōhi‘a is a dominant forest tree it also exhibits many characteristics of a pioneer species. ‘Ōhi‘a provides the matrix for a wide diversity of endemic plants and animals found in these habitats and functions as the primary vegetation cover on native Hawaiian watersheds, facilitating groundwater recharge and regulating surface runoff. ‘Ōhi‘a has shown remarkable resilience by recolonizing forests that were opened up by disturbance, such as the widespread ‘ōhi‘a canopy dieback that occurred on East Maui in the 1900s and on the east side of the Island of Hawai‘i in the 1970s. Several human-related conditions threaten the continued stability of Hawaii’s native ecosystems, including invasive plants, plant diseases, introduced animals, and changing climate. The research and conservation legacy of Dr. Dieter Mueller-Dombois helped to expand our knowledge of the ecology and importance of ‘ōhi‘a forests, and to increase awareness and appreciation of the remarkable Hawaiian ecosystems that are unique to the world.

Hawaii↗

USGS2013

NW CSC annual report fiscal year 2013

The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) was established in 2010 as one of eight regional Climate Science Centers created by the Department of the Interior (DOI). The NW CSC encompasses Washing-ton, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana and has overlapping boundaries with three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): the Great Northern, the Great Basin, and the North Pacific. With guidance from its Executive Stakeholder Advisory Committee (ESAC), the NW CSC and its partner LCCs are addressing the highest priority regional climate science needs of Northwest natural and cultural resource managers. Climate Science Centers tap into the scientific expertise of both the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and academic institutions. The NW CSC is supported by an academic consortium with the capacity to generate climate science and tools in a coordinated fashion, serving stakeholders across the Northwest region. This consortium is primarily represented by Oregon State University (OSU), the University of Id-ho (UI), and the University of Washington (UW). The academic consortium and USGS provide capabilities in climate science, ecology, impacts and vulnerability assessment, modeling, adaptation planning, and advanced information technology, all necessary to address and respond to climate change in the Northwest. University members also recruit and train graduate students and early-career scientists. This Annual Report summarizes progress for the goals set out in the NW CSC Strategic Plan for 2012-2015 (http://www.doi.gov/csc/northwest/upload/Northwest-CSC-Strategic-Plan.cfm) and the NW CSC Work-plan for Fiscal Year (FY) 2013 (October 1, 2012 through September 30, 2013). The report follows the structure of the Strategic Plan, which describes the five core services (Executive, Science, Data, Communications, and Education and Training) provided by the NW CSC in support of the stated vision: Our Vision: To become nationally recognized as a best-practice model for the provision of climate science and decision support tools to address conservation and management issues in the Pacific Northwest Region.

Report↗

USGS2017

U.S. Geological Survey shrub/grass products provide new approach to shrubland monitoring

In the Western United States, shrubland ecosystems provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational services. However, disturbances such as livestock grazing, exotic species invasion, conversion to agriculture, climate change, urban expansion, and energy development are altering these ecosystems. Improving our understanding of how shrublands are distributed, where they are changing, the extent of the historical change, and likely future change directions is critical for successful management of these ecosystems. Remote-sensing technologies provide the most likely data source for large-area monitoring of ecosystem disturbance—both near-real time and historically. A monitoring framework supported by remote-sensing data can offer efficient and accurate analysis of change across a range of spatial and temporal scales. The U.S. Geological Survey has been working to develop new remote-sensing data, tools, and products to characterize and monitor these changing shrubland landscapes. Nine individual map products (components) have been developed that quantify the percent of shrub, sagebrush, big sagebrush, herbaceous, annual herbaceous, litter, bare ground, shrub height, and sagebrush height at 1-percent intervals in each 30-meter grid cell. These component products are designed to be combined and customized to widely support different applications in rangeland monitoring, analysis of wildlife habitat, resource inventory, adaptive management, and environmental review.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2023

Sea level rise may pose conservation challenges for the endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow

Biodiversity conservation under a changing climate is a challenging endeavor. Landscapes are shifting as a result of climate change and sea level rise but plant communities in particular may not keep up with the pace of change. Predictive ecological models can help decision makers understand how species are likely to respond to change and then adjust management actions to align with desired future conditions. Florida’s Everglades is a wetland ecosystem that is host to many species, including a large number of endangered and endemic species. Everglades ecosystem restoration has been ongoing for decades, but consideration of sea level rise impacts in restoration planning is more recent. Incorporating potential impacts from sea level rise into restoration planning should benefit species and their coastal habitats, most notably at the southern Florida peninsula. The endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow ( Ammospiza maritima mirabilis ) occurs in marl prairie habitat at the southern end of the Everglades. The locations of three of its six subpopulations are proximate to the coast. We used a spatially explicit predictive model, EverSparrow, to estimate probability of sparrow presence considering both hydrologic change from restoration and sea level rise. We found that the probability of sparrow presence decreased with increasing sea level rise. Within approximately 50 years, probability of presence significantly decreased for all three coastal subpopulation areas, with areas above 40% probability increasingly limited. Given the exceptionally low dispersal ability of this species and the geographic restrictions for habitat expansion, our results highlight the importance of freshwater flow into the southern Everglades marl prairie for habitat conservation.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Framework for a hydrologic climate-response network in New England

Many climate-related hydrologic variables in New England have changed in the past century, and many are expected to change during the next century. It is important to understand and monitor these changes because they can affect human water supply, hydroelectric power generation, transportation infrastructure, and stream and riparian ecology. This report describes a framework for hydrologic monitoring in New England by means of a climate-response network. The framework identifies specific inland hydrologic variables that are sensitive to climate variation; identifies geographic regions with similar hydrologic responses; proposes a fixed-station monitoring network composed of existing streamflow, groundwater, lake ice, snowpack, and meteorological data-collection stations for evaluation of hydrologic response to climate variation; and identifies streamflow basins for intensive, process-based studies and for estimates of future hydrologic conditions.

Conecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, R↗

USGS2016

FishVis, A regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change in the Great Lakes Region

Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish species within each stream reach in the study area. Downscaled climate data from general circulation models were integrated with the fish species occurrence models to project fish species occurrence under future climate conditions. The 13 fish species represented three ecological guilds associated with water temperature (cold, cool, and warm), and the species were distributed in streams across the Great Lakes region. Vulnerability (loss of species) and opportunity (gain of species) scores were calculated for all stream reaches by evaluating changes in fish species occurrence from present-day to future climate conditions. The 13 fish species included 4 cold-water species, 5 cool-water species, and 4 warm-water species. Presently, the 4 cold-water species occupy from 15 percent (55,000 kilometers [km]) to 35 percent (130,000 km) of the total stream length (369,215 km) across the study area; the 5 cool-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 58 percent (215,000 km); and the 4 warm-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 38 percent (141,000 km). Fish models linked to projections from 13 downscaled climate models projected that in the mid to late 21st century (2046–65 and 2081–2100, respectively) habitats suitable for all 4 cold-water species and 4 of 5 cool-water species under present-day conditions will decline as much as 86 percent and as little as 33 percent, and habitats suitable for all 4 warm-water species will increase as much as 33 percent and as little as 7 percent. This report documents the approach and data used to predict and project fish species occurrence under present-day and future climate conditions for 13 lotic fish species in the United States Great Lakes Basin. A Web-based decision support mapping application termed “FishVis” was developed to provide a means to integrate, visualize, query, and download the results of these projected climate-driven responses and help inform conservation planning efforts within the region.

Great Lakes Region↗

USGS2024

Supporting climate adaptation for rural Mekong River Basin communities in Thailand

Climate change impacts on large river basins, such as the Mekong River Basin (MRB), are complex due to shared governance and interconnected socioeconomic areas, making them highly vulnerable to change. The MRB, spanning six countries including Thailand, is crucial for the food and economic security of > 60 million people. However, in 2021, Thailand was ranked as the 9th highest risk country affected by climate change. To integrate climate adaptation in Thailand's MRB, we examined the effects of climate change on rapidly developing farmer and fisher communities in northeastern Thailand and explored feasible adaptation options. Using an interdisciplinary approach that included literature review, participatory action methods, and the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework, we found that climate change is projected to increase temperatures, precipitation, extreme events, erosion, and water clarity, while decreasing heavy sediment transport. These changes negatively impact agriculture, fisheries, human health, and tourism. We identified several adaptation strategies across environmental, ecological, and human health categories to accommodate local needs, such as preventing habitat degradation (e.g., from dams and deforestation), providing fish refuge and passage, and supporting technical capacity. Community-driven adaptation planning and implementation are essential for supporting global sustainable development in a changing climate.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Ch↗

USGS2015

Transforming ecosystems: When, where, and how to restore contaminated sites

Chemical contamination has impaired ecosystems, reducing biodiversity and the provisioning of functions and services. This has spurred a movement to restore contaminated ecosystems and develop and implement national and international regulations that require it. Nevertheless, ecological restoration remains a young and rapidly growing discipline and its intersection with toxicology is even more nascent and underdeveloped. Consequently, we provide guidance to scientists and practitioners on when, where, and how to restore contaminated ecosystems. Although restoration has many benefits, it also can be expensive, and in many cases systems can recover without human intervention. Hence, the first question we address is: “When should we restore contaminated ecosystems?” Second, we provide suggestions on what to restore—biodiversity, functions, services, all 3, or something else—and where to restore given expected changes to habitats driven by global climate change. Finally, we provide guidance on how to restore contaminated ecosystems. To do this, we analyze critical aspects of the literature dealing with the ecology of restoring contaminated ecosystems. Additionally, we review approaches for translating the science of restoration to on-the-ground actions, which includes discussions of market incentives and the finances of restoration, stakeholder outreach and governance models for ecosystem restoration, and working with contractors to implement restoration plans. By explicitly considering the mechanisms and strategies that maximize the success of the restoration of contaminated sites, we hope that our synthesis serves to increase and improve collaborations between restoration ecologists and ecotoxicologists and set a roadmap for the restoration of contaminated ecosystems.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗