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Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume II”

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

Crater population and resurfacing of the Martian north polar layered deposits

Present‐day accumulation in the north polar layered deposits (NPLD) is thought to occur via deposition on the north polar residual cap. Understanding current mass balance in relation to current climate would provide insight into the climatic record of the NPLD. To constrain processes and rates of NPLD resurfacing, a search for craters was conducted using images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Context Camera. One hundred thirty craters have been identified on the NPLD, 95 of which are located within a region defined to represent recent accumulation. High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment images of craters in this region reveal a morphological sequence of crater degradation that provides a qualitative understanding of processes involved in crater removal. A classification system for these craters was developed based on the amount of apparent degradation and infilling and where possible depth/diameter ratios were determined. The temporal and spatial distribution of crater degradation is interpreted to be close to uniform. Through comparison of the size‐frequency distribution of these craters with the expected production function, the craters are interpreted to be an equilibrium population with a crater of diameter D meters having a lifetime of ∼30.75 D 1.14 years. Accumulation rates within these craters are estimated at 7.2 D −0.14 mm/yr, which corresponds to values of ∼3–4 mm/yr and are much higher than rates thought to apply to the surrounding flat terrain. The current crater population is estimated to have accumulated in the last ∼20 kyr or less.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Lessons learned in applying decision analysis to natural resource management for high stakes issues surrounded by uncertainty

Management agencies are tasked with difficult decisions for conservation and management of natural resources. These decisions are difficult because of ecological and social uncertainties, the potential for multiple decision makers from multiple jurisdictions, and the need to account for the diverse values of stakeholders. Decision analysis provides a framework for accounting for these difficulties when making conservation and management decisions. We discuss the benefits of the application of decision analysis for these types of issues and provide insights from three case studies from the Laurentian Great Lakes. These case studies describe applications of decision analysis for decisions within an agency (management of double-crested cormorant), among agencies (response to invasive grass carp), and among agencies and stakeholders (sustainable fisheries harvest management). These case studies provide insight into the ways that decision analysis can be useful for conservation and management of natural resources, but we also highlight future needs for decision making for these resources. In particular, applications of decision analysis for conservation and management would benefit from enhanced integration of both ecological and social science, inclusion of a broader base of stakeholders and rightsholders, and better educational opportunities surrounding decision analysis for undergraduates and graduate students of natural resources management programs. Specific lessons from our experiences include the importance of establishing trust and transparency early through the formation of a working group, collaboratively defining objectives and evaluating uncertainties, risks, and tradeoffs, and implementing participatory modeling processes with an independent facilitator with appropriate quantitative skills.

Decision Analysis↗

The next frontier: Making research more reproducible

Science and engineering rest on the concept of reproducibility. An important question for any study is: are the results reproducible? Can the results be recreated independently by other researchers or professionals? Research results need to be independently reproduced and validated before they are accepted as fact or theory. Across numerous fields like psychology, computer systems, and water resources there are problems to reproduce research results (Aarts et al. 2015; Collberg et al. 2014; Hutton et al. 2016; Stagge et al. 2019; Stodden et al. 2018). This editorial examines the challenges to reproduce research results and suggests community practices to overcome these challenges. Coordination is needed among the authors, journals, funders and institutions that produce, publish, and report research. Making research more reproducible will allow researchers, professionals, and students to more quickly understand and apply research in follow-on efforts and advance the field.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

Global Positioning System data collection, processing, and analysis conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program

The U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center collects and processes Global Positioning System (GPS) data throughout the western United States to measure crustal deformation related to earthquakes and tectonic processes as part of a long‐term program of research and monitoring. Here, we outline data collection procedures and present the GPS dataset built through repeated temporary deployments since 1992. This dataset consists of observations at ∼1950 locations. In addition, this article details our data processing and analysis procedures, which consist of the following. We process the raw data collected through temporary deployments, in addition to data from continuously operating western U.S. GPS stations operated by multiple agencies, using the GIPSY software package to obtain position time series. Subsequently, we align the positions to a common reference frame, determine the optimal parameters for a temporally correlated noise model, and apply this noise model when carrying out time‐series analysis to derive deformation measures, including constant interseismic velocities, coseismic offsets, and transient postseismic motion.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Using decision science for monitoring threatened western snowy plovers to inform recovery

Western Snowy Plovers ( Charadrius nivosus nivosus ) are federally listed under the US Endangered Species Act as Threatened. They occur along the US Pacific coastline and are threatened by habitat loss and destruction and excessive levels of predation and human disturbance. Populations have been monitored since the 1970s for distribution, reproduction, and survival. Since the species was federally listed in 1993 and a recovery plan was approved under the US Fish and Wildlife Service in 2007, recovery actions have resulted in growing populations with increased presence at breeding and wintering sites throughout their Pacific Coast range. This success has created logistical challenges related to monitoring a recovering species and a need for identifying and instituting the best monitoring approach given recovery goals, budgets, and the likelihood of monitoring success. We devised and implemented a structured decision analysis to evaluate nine alternative monitoring strategies. The analysis included inviting plover biologists involved in monitoring to score each strategy according to a suite of performance measures. Using multi-attribute utility theory, we combined scores across the performance measures for each monitoring strategy, and applied weighted utility values to show the implications of tradeoffs and find optimal decisions. We evaluated four scenarios for weighting the monitoring objectives and how risk attitude affects optimal decisions. This resulted in identifying six strategies that best meet recovery needs and were Pareto optimal for cost-effective monitoring. Results were presented to the US Fish and Wildlife Service, responsible for monitoring as well as for consideration to ensure consistent monitoring methods across the species’ range. Our use of structured decision-making can be applied to cases of other species once imperiled but now on the road to recovery.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Mercury speciation and retention in a salt marsh undergoing long-term fertilization

Experimental plots in Great Sippewissett Marsh (Falmouth, MA USA) have been undergoing long-term (>48 years) fertilization through the application of commercial sewage sludge-based fertilizer. The experimental treatment focuses on the effect of added nitrogen on the salt marsh plots, but also supplies mercury (Hg) and other metals. This experiment provides a unique opportunity to test hypotheses regarding the Hg-related response of coastal marine ecosystems to eutrophication as well as assess the efficacy of salt marshes as sinks for increased loadings of Hg to the coastal zone. Hg inventories in sediments of control plots were similar to loadings from atmospheric deposition and inventories in the fertilized plots closely reflected the estimated loadings of Hg contained in the added fertilizer. In both the control and fertilized plots, distribution of Hg appeared somewhat different than the history of loadings, implying some level of Hg mobility. The relative abundance of monomethylmercury (CH 3 Hg + ) within the plots varied with the amount of fertilizer applied with the highest percentage of Hg as CH 3 Hg + found in the control plots, and the lowest percentages of CH 3 Hg + and S were measured in plots fertilized at the highest dose. The results from this marsh suggest that eutrophication indirectly lowers CH 3 Hg + production in this particular ecosystem, but perhaps not as a result of the sequestration of Hg(II) with S.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

Tide gates form physical and ecological obstacles to river herring (Alosa spp.) spawning migrations

River herring ( Alosa spp.) are anadromous fish that enter North American Atlantic coastal rivers and lakes each spring to spawn. Anthropogenic structures such as dams and tide gates serve as physical obstacles that limit river herring access to spawning habitat. This study examined the physical and ecological components affecting herring passage through a tide gate by applying a time-to-event analysis framework to multiple movement behaviors derived from telemetry data. Herring had higher passage success early in the season (78%) than later (16%). Key behaviors that govern passage varied with diel period, tide, and flow direction through the gates. Furthermore, these behaviors shifted as the season progressed, consistent with the hypothesis that predator avoidance may be driving passage failure late in the spawning season.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

When do climate services achieve societal impact? Evaluations of actionable climate adaptation science

To cope with complex environmental impacts in a changing climate, researchers are increasingly being asked to produce science that can directly support policy and decision making. To achieve such societal impact, scientists are using climate services to engage directly with stakeholders to better understand their needs and inform knowledge production. However, the wide variety of climate-services outcomes—ranging from establishing collegial relationships with stakeholders to obtaining specific information for inclusion into a pre-existing decision process—do not directly connect to traditional methods of measuring scientific impact (e.g., publication citations, journal impact factor). In this paper, we describe how concepts from the discipline of evaluation can be used to examine the societal impacts of climate services. We also present a case study from climate impacts and adaptation research to test a scalable evaluation approach. Those who conduct research for the purposes of climate services and those who fund applied climate research would benefit from evaluation from the beginning of project development. Doing so will help ensure that the approach, data collection, and data analysis are appropriately conceived and executed.

Sustainability↗

Coral 13C/12C records of vertical seafloor displacement during megathrust earthquakes west of Sumatra

The recent surge of megathrust earthquakes and tsunami disasters has highlighted the need for a comprehensive understanding of earthquake cycles along convergent plate boundaries. Space geodesy has been used to document recent crustal deformation patterns with unprecedented precision, however the production of long paleogeodetic records of vertical seafloor motion is still a major challenge. Here we show that carbon isotope ratios ( ) in the skeletons of massive Porites corals from west Sumatra record abrupt changes in light exposure resulting from coseismic seafloor displacements. Validation of the method is based on the coral response to uplift (and subsidence) produced by the March 2005 M w 8.6 Nias–Simeulue earthquake, and uplift further south around Sipora Island during a M∼8.4 megathrust earthquake in February 1797. At Nias, the average step-change in coral was 0.6±0.1‰/m for coseismic displacements of +1.8 m and −0.4 m in 2005. At Sipora, a distinct change in Porites microatoll growth morphology marks coseismic uplift of 0.7 m in 1797. In this shallow water setting, with a steep light attenuation gradient, the step-change in microatoll is 2.3‰/m , nearly four times greater than for the Nias Porites . Considering the natural variability in coral skeletal , we show that the lower detection limit of the method is around 0.2 m of vertical seafloor motion. Analysis of vertical displacement for well-documented earthquakes suggests this sensitivity equates to shallow events exceeding M w ∼7.2 in central megathrust and back-arc thrust fault settings. Our findings indicate that the coral paleogeodesy technique could be applied to convergent tectonic margins throughout the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian oceans, which host prolific coral reefs, and some of the world's greatest earthquake catastrophes. While our focus here is the link between coral , light exposure and coseismic crustal deformation, the same principles could be used to characterize interseismic strain during earthquake cycles over the last several millennia.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory news media management guide — General protocols and templates

This guide describes general protocols and provides templates for news media management at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO) and is intended for use by the CVO scientist-in-charge, communications staff, scientists, and guest communications colleagues. This public version, with CVO names and contact information removed, may be useful to other agencies developing their own protocols and templates. This guide evolved from a smaller document hastily assembled out of necessity during the complex and overwhelming news media interest in the 2004–2008 Mount St. Helens eruption. News media interest exceeded the need for life-saving crisis communication and foretold of the need for future multi-faceted and well-coordinated news media and social media responses during future volcanic events. This guide accompanies the USGS Volcano Science Center’s (VSC’s) general guidelines and protocols for how communications staff at all VSC observatories will work together to respond to news media requests. The protocols and templates are applicable to (1) normal conditions when CVO has an opportunity to be proactive with its messages and to raise general awareness, (2) general responses to news media and TV documentary inquiries, (3) intense news media interest where the responsibility to communicate information and hazards rests primarily with staff at CVO, and (4) intense and overwhelming news media interest that requires a multiagency response. This guide reflects general protocols in effect at the time of publication. The information will be modified as conditions change. Although “news media” generally refers to traditional outlets such as TV, radio, and newspapers, the protocols used to engage these traditional outlets apply also when responding to bloggers, online news services, and social media comments.

Circular↗

Cytochrome P450 1A expression in midwater fishes: Potential effects of chemical contaminants in remote oceanic zones

Cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A) induction is a robust marker for exposure to polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons and planar halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons that are aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists. We examined CYP1A expression in mesopelagic fishes from the western North Atlantic. Individuals in 22 species were obtained from slope water and the Sargasso Sea in 1977, 1978, and 1993. Aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase (AHH), a CYP1A activity, was detected in liver from all species in 1977/78. In some, including Gonostoma elongatum, AHH was inhibited by the CYP1A inhibitor ??-naphthoflavone. CYP1A-dependent ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) was detected in liver microsomes of all species in 1993; rates were highest in G. elongatum and Argyropelecus aculeatus. Immunoblot analysis with the CYP1A-specific monoclonal antibody 1-12-3 detected a single microsomal protein band in most 1993 samples; the highest content was in G. elongatum. Immunohistochemical analysis showed CYP1A staining in gill, heart, kidney, and/or liver of several species. Extracts of the 1993 G. elongatum and A. aculeatus, when applied to fish hepatoma cells (PLHC-1) in culture, elicited a significant induction of EROD in those cells. The capacity of the extracts to induce CYP1A correlated with the content of PCBs measured in the same fish (2-4.6 ng/g total body weight). Mesopelagic fish in the western North Atlantic, which experience no direct exposure to surface waters or sediments, are exposed chronically to inducers of CYP1A at levels that appear to be biochemically active in those fish.Cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A) induction is a robust marker for exposure to polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons and planar halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons that are awl hydrocarbon receptor agonists. We examined CYP1A expression in mesopelagic fishes from the western North Atlantic. Individuals in 22 species were obtained from slope water and the Sargasso Sea in 1977, 1978, and 1993. Aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase (AHH), a CYP1A activity, was detected in liver from all species in 1977/78. In some, including Gonostoma elongatum, AHH was inhibited by the CYP1A inhibitor ??-naphthoflavone. CYP1A-dependent ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) was detected in liver microsomes of all species in 1993; rates were highest in G. elongatum and Argyropelecus aculeatus. Immunoblot analysis with the CYP1A-specific monoclonal antibody 1-12-3 detected a single microsomal protein band in most 1993 samples; the highest content was in G. elongatum. Immunohistochemical analysis showed CYP1A staining in gill, heart, kidney, and/or liver of several species. Extracts of the 1993 G. elongatum and A. aculeatus, when applied to fish hepatoma cells (PLHC-1) in culture, elicited a significant induction of EROD in those cells. The capacity of the extracts to induce CYP1A correlated with the content of PCBs measured in the same fish (2-4.6 ng/g total body weight). Mesopelagic fish in the western North Atlantic, which experience no direct exposure to surface waters or sediments, are exposed chronically to inducers of CYP1A at levels that appear to be biochemically active in those fish.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Eye lenses reveal ontogenetic trophic and habitat shifts in an imperiled fish, Clear Lake hitch (Lavinia exilicauda chi)

Stable isotopes recorded in fish eye lenses are an emerging tool to track dietary shifts coincident with use of diverse habitats over the lifetime of individuals. Eye lenses are metabolically inert, sequentially deposited, archival tissues that can open avenues to chronicle contaminant exposures, diet histories, trophic dynamics and migratory histories of individual fishes. In this study, we demonstrated that trophic histories reconstructed using eye lenses can resolve key uncertainties regarding diet and trophic habitat shifts. Clear Lake hitch ( Lavinia exilicauda chi ), a threatened cyprinid, inhabits a single lake (Clear Lake, Lake County, California) and utilizes tributary streams for reproduction. Bayesian mixing models applied to δ 13 C and δ 15 N recorded in eye lenses uncovered ontogenetic diet shifts that corresponded with shifts in occupation of habitats providing spawning (tributary streams), rearing (littoral lake), and growth (pelagic lake) functions. The reconstruction of size-structured trophic and habitat information can provide vital information needed to manage and conserve imperiled species such as the Clear Lake hitch.

California↗

The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA

We summarize scientific methods for developing probabilistic seismic hazard assessments from 3-D earthquake ground motion simulations, describe current use of simulated ground motions for engineering applications, and discuss on-going efforts to incorporate these effects in the U.S. national seismic hazard model. The 3-D simulations provide important, additional information about earthquake ground-shaking, which is critical to proper characterization of potential ground motions. Example uses of these simulations for engineering applications provide alternative approaches to introducing the effects of deep basins on long-period ground motions into design requirements. In Seattle, Washington tall building design includes requirements for accounting for the effect of the Seattle basin, and one method for including this effect relies upon local 3-D simulations. In Los Angeles, California a working group of scientists and engineers is advancing the use of local 3-D simulations for local building codes. In light of the benefit to ground motion characterization from the use of 3-D simulations, similar efforts are underway for national-scale seismic hazard analyses, which seek to make use of the extensive work applied from local efforts; current methods for incorporating these effects on a national-scale are presented.

Conference Paper↗

Federal collaboration in science for invasive mammal management in U.S. National Parks and Wildlife Refuges of the Pacific Islands

Some of the most isolated islands in the Pacific Ocean are home to US National Parks and Wildlife Refuges. These islands are known for flora and fauna that occur nowhere else, but also for invasive species and other factors which have resulted in the disproportionate extinction of native species. The control of invasive mammals is the single most expensive natural resource management activity essential for restoring ecological integrity to parks in the Hawaiian Islands, American Samoa, and the islands of Guam and Saipan. Science-based applications supporting management efforts have been shaped by longstanding collaborative federal research programs over the past four decades. Consequently, feral goats (Capra hircus) have been removed from >690 km2 in National Parks, and feral pigs (Sus scrofa) have been removed from >367 km2 of federal lands of Hawai‘i, bringing about the gradual recovery of forest ecosystems. The exclusion of other non-native ungulates and invasive mammals is now being undertaken with more sophisticated control techniques and fences. New fence designs are now capable of excluding feral cats (Felis catus) from large areas to protect endangered native waterfowl and nesting seabirds. Rodenticides which have been tested and registered for hand and aerial broadcast in Hawai‘i have been used to eradicate rats from small offshore islands to protect nesting seabirds and are now being applied to montane environments of larger islands to protect forest birds. Forward-looking infrared radar (FLIR) is also being applied to locate wild ungulates which were more recently introduced to some islands. All invasive mammals have been eradicated from some remote small islands, and it may soon be possible to manage areas on larger islands to be free of invasive mammals at least during seasonally important periods for native species.

Conference Paper↗

Strengthening links between waterfowl research and management

Waterfowl monitoring, research, regulation, and adaptive planning are leading the way in supporting science-informed wildlife management. However, increasing societal demands on natural resources have created a greater need for adaptable and successful linkages between waterfowl science and management. We presented a special session at the 2016 North American Duck Symposium, Annapolis, Maryland, USA on the successes and challenges of linking research and management in waterfowl conservation, and we summarize those thoughts in this commentary. North American waterfowl management includes a diversity of actions including management of harvest and habitat. Decisions for waterfowl management are structured using decision analysis by incorporating stakeholder values into formal objectives, identifying research relevant to objectives, integrating scientific knowledge, and choosing an optimal strategy with respect to objectives. Recently, the consideration of the value of information has been proposed as a means to evaluate the utility of research designed to meet objectives. Despite these advances, the ability to conduct waterfowl research with direct management application may be increasingly difficult in research institutions for several reasons including reduced funding for applied research and the lower perceived value of applied versus theoretical research by some university academics. In addition, coordination between researchers and managers may be logistically constrained, and communication may be ineffective between the 2 groups. Strengthening these links would help develop stronger and more coordinated approaches for the conservation of waterfowl and the wetlands upon which they depend.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Exit here: Strategies for dealing with aging dams and reservoirs

Aging infrastructure is prevalent throughout the world but water control management structures, specifically dams are of growing concern. Dams and their corresponding reservoirs have inherent, but separate, lifespans. The proportion of dams around the world that continue operation beyond their intended lifespans is growing at an alarming rate. Society will not only have to navigate the tradeoffs associated with the deterioration of services provided by reservoirs and dams, but also impending structural failures. Society is nearing a critical pinch point where we will have to decide how to deal with dams and reservoirs at scales that range from a single system to multiple systems in large watersheds. No comprehensive strategy exists to inform both the range of actions that can be applied to such infrastructure and how such actions would influence biophysical, socioeconomic, and geopolitical tradeoffs. The development of proactive exit strategies is a critical first step in ensuring controlled transitions for aging dams and reservoirs. Herein, we present an overview of actions and considerations for aging dams and reservoirs in the USA followed by an initial framework for exit strategy development to launch further discussion on how society could deal with this aging infrastructure.

Aquatic Sciences↗

Modeling post-wildfire hydrologic response: Review and future directions for applications of physically based distributed simulation

Wildfire is a growing concern as climate shifts. The hydrologic effects of wildfire, which include elevated hazards and changes in water quantity and quality, are increasingly assessed using numerical models. Post-wildfire application of physically based distributed models provides unique insight into the underlying processes that affect water resources after wildfire. This work reviews and synthesizes post-wildfire applications of physically based distributed models by examining the scales and geographic/ecohydrologic distribution of model applications, hydrologic response process representation, model parameterization, and model performance metrics. Highlighted gaps and opportunities for advancing physically based distributed hydrologic response modeling after wildfire include the following: (a) applying models in under-represented geographic (S. America, Africa, Asia) and ecohydrologic regions (arid or dry subhumid climates), (b) incorporating all four major streamflow generation mechanisms (infiltration excess, saturation excess, subsurface storm flow, and groundwater flow), (c) representing integrated vadose zone and saturated zone processes to better capture subsurface streamflow generation, (d) building new remotely sensed model parameterization methods for precipitation interception, infiltration, and overland flow that account for burn severity and recovery, (e) incorporating distributed state variables (e.g., soil moisture, groundwater levels) in model performance assessment, (f) designing model intercomparison studies, including field datasets specifically for post-wildfire model development and validation, (g) linking mechanistic vegetation regrowth models with hydrologic models to improve simulation of process shifts as ecosystems recover, and (h) creating a new community modeling framework to integrate modeling advances across the wildfire science community.

Earth's Future↗