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USGS2009

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5?? (latitude ?? longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960-2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991-2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041-2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5-5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long-term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2007

Development and application of a spatial hydrology model of Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia

The model described herein was used to assess effects of the Suwannee River sill (a low earthen dam constructed to impound the Suwannee River within the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge to eliminate wildfires) on the hydrologic environment of Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia. Developed with Arc/Info Macro Language routines in the GRID environment, the model distributes water in the swamp landscape using precipitation, inflow, evapotranspiration, outflow, and standing water. Water movement direction and rate are determined by the neighborhood topographic gradient, determined using survey grade Global Positioning Systems technology. Model data include flow rates from USGS monitored gauges, precipitation volumes and water levels measured within the swamp, and estimated evapotranspiration volumes spatially modified by vegetation type. Model output in semi-monthly time steps includes water depth, water surface elevation above mean sea level, and movement direction and volume. Model simulations indicate the sill impoundment affects 18 percent of the swamp during high water conditions when wildfires are scarce and has minimal spatial effect (increasing hydroperiods in less than 5 percent of the swamp) during low water and drought conditions when fire occurrence is high but precipitation and inflow volumes are limited.

Georgia↗

USGS2019

Long‐term plant community trajectories suggest divergent responses of native and non‐native perennials and annuals to vegetation removal and seeding treatments

Land managers frequently apply vegetation removal and seeding treatments to restore ecosystem function following woody plant encroachment, invasive species spread, and wildfire. However, the long‐term outcome of these treatments is unclear due to a lack of widespread monitoring. We quantified how vegetation removal (via wildfire or management) with or without seeding and environmental conditions related to plant community composition change over time in 491 sites across the intermountain western United States. Most community metrics took over 10 years to reach baseline conditions posttreatment, with the slowest recovery observed for native perennial cover. Total cover was initially higher in sites with seeding after vegetation removal than sites with vegetation removal alone, but increased faster in sites with vegetation removal only. Seeding after vegetation removal was associated with rapidly increasing non‐native perennial cover and decreasing non‐native annual cover. Native perennial cover increased in vegetation removal sites irrespective of seeding and was suppressed by increasing non‐native perennial cover. Seeding was associated with higher non‐native richness across the monitoring period as well as initially higher, then declining, total and native species richness. Several cover and richness recovery metrics were positively associated with mean annual precipitation and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, whereas relationships with weather extremes depended on the lag time and season. Our results suggest that key plant groups, such as native perennials and non‐native annuals, respond to restoration treatments at divergent timescales and with different sensitivities to climate and weather variation.

Utah↗

USGS2020

Postfire growth of seeded and planted big sagebrush - Strategic designs for restoring Greater Sage-grouse nesting habitat

Wildfires change plant community structure and impact wildlife habitat and population dynamics. Recent wildfire‐induced losses of big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) in North American shrublands are outpacing natural recovery and leading to substantial losses in habitat for sagebrush‐obligate species such as Greater Sage‐grouse. Managers are considering restoration strategies that include planting container‐grown sagebrush to improve establishment within areas using more conventional seeding methods. Although it is thought that planting sagebrush provides initial structural advantages over seeding, empirical comparisons of sagebrush growth are lacking between individuals established post‐fire using both methods. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we evaluated sagebrush height and canopy area growth rates for plants established in 26 seeded and 20 planted locations within the Great Basin. We then related recovery rates to previously published nesting habitat requirements for sage‐grouse. Under average weather conditions, planted or seeded sagebrush will require 3 or 4 years, respectively, and a relatively high density (≥ 2 plants/m 2 ) to achieve the minimum recommended canopy cover for sage‐grouse (15 %). Sagebrush grown in warmer and drier conditions met this cover goal months earlier. Although planted sagebrush reached heights to meet sage‐grouse nesting requirements (30 cm) one year earlier than seeded plants, seeded individuals were ~19 cm taller with 410 cm 2 more canopy area than planted sagebrush after 8 years. However, big sagebrush establishment from seed is unreliable. Strategically planting small, high density patches of container‐grown sagebrush in historic sage‐grouse nesting habitat combined with lower density seedings in larger surrounding areas may accelerate sage‐grouse habitat restoration.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2023

A nontarget, disturbance-resilient native species influences post-fire recovery and multiphasic herbicide-seeding outcomes in drylands threatened by exotic annual grasses

Native species that are abundant and persistent across disturbance-succession cycles can affect recovery and restoration of plant communities, especially in drylands. In the sagebrush-steppe deserts of North America, restoring deep-rooted perennial bunchgrasses (DRPBGs) is key to the strategy for breaking an increasingly problematic cycle of wildfire promoted by exotic annual grasses (EAGs) and displacement of perennials by post-fire increases in EAGs. We asked how Sandberg bluegrass ( Poa secunda , POSE)—a common native grass that shares traits with EAGs such as resilience to disturbance and rapid, shallow-rooted, early season growth—(1) recovered after wildfire, (2) responded to different combinations of native-plant seedings of DRPBGs and EAG-targeting herbicides; and (3) in turn, related to DRPBG recovery. In repeated sampling of up to approximately 2,000 plots spanning 113,000 burned hectares, POSE was initially more abundant than DRPBGs until POSE began to decline 5 years post-fire, and POSE was marginally affected or unaffected by restoration treatments targeting DRPBGs or EAGs. In comparison, EAG cover decreased 8–16% where preemergent herbicide was sprayed and DRPBG cover increased 3–9% where they were drill-seeded, and the greatest EAG reductions and DRPBG increases were seen where seeding and herbicides were combined in a time-staggered fashion. Treatments had less target effects where POSE cover was high (>18%), which is also where EAG cover was scarcer and DRPBG cover greater, regardless of post-fire interventions. Consideration of the ecological role of disturbance-resilient species with ruderal characteristics that match traits of key invaders may improve the efficiency and effectiveness of restoration interventions.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS1999

Reexamining fire suppression impacts on brushland fire regimes

California shrubland wildfires are increasingly destructive, and it is widely held that the problem has been intensified by fire suppression, leading to larger, more intense wildfires. However, analysis of the California Statewide Fire History Database shows that, since 1910, fire frequency and area burned have not declined, and fire size has not increased. Fire rotation intervals have declined, and fire season has not changed, implying that fire intensity has not increased. Fire frequency and population density were correlated, and it is suggested that fire suppression plays a critical role in offsetting potential impacts of increased ignitions. Large fires were not dependent on old age classes of fuels, and it is thus unlikely that age class manipulation of fuels can prevent large fires. Expansion of the urban-wildland interface is a key factor in wildland fire destruction.

Science↗

USGS2008

Four centuries of soil carbon and nitrogen change after stand-replacing fire in a forest landscape in the western Cascade Range of Oregon

Episodic stand-replacing wildfire is a significant disturbance in mesic and moist Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) forests of the Pacific Northwest. We studied 24 forest stands with known fire histories in the western Cascade Range in Oregon to evaluate long-term impacts of stand-replacing wildfire on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools and dynamics within the forest floor (FF, Oe and Oa horizons) and the mineral soil (0-10 cm). Twelve of our stands burned approximately 150 years ago ('young'), and the other 12 burned approximately 550 years ago ('old'). Forest floor mean C and N pools were significantly greater in old stands than young stands (N pools: 1823 ?? 132 kg??ha-1 vs. 1450 ?? 98 kg??ha -1; C pools: 62 980 ?? 5403 kg??ha-1 vs. 49 032 ?? 2965 kg??ha-1, mean ?? SE) as a result of significant differences in FF mass. Forest floor C and N concentrations and C/N ratios did not differ by time since fire, yet potential N mineralization rates were significantly higher in FF of old sites. Old and young mineral soils did not differ significantly in pools, concentrations, C/N ratios, or cycling rates. Our results suggest that C and N are sequestered in FF of Pacific Northwest Douglas-fir forests over long (???400 year) intervals, but that shorter fire return intervals may prevent that accumulation. ?? 2008 NRC.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2010

Resilience of Alaska’s boreal forest to climatic change

This paper assesses the resilience of Alaska’s boreal forest system to rapid climatic change. Recent warming is associated with reduced growth of dominant tree species, plant disease and insect outbreaks, warming and thawing of permafrost, drying of lakes, increased wildfire extent, increased postfire recruitment of deciduous trees, and reduced safety of hunters traveling on river ice. These changes have modified key structural features, feedbacks, and interactions in the boreal forest, including reduced effects of upland permafrost on regional hydrology, expansion of boreal forest into tundra, and amplification of climate warming because of reduced albedo (shorter winter season) and carbon release from wildfires. Other temperature-sensitive processes for which no trends have been detected include composition of plant and microbial communities, long-term landscape-scale change in carbon stocks, stream discharge, mammalian population dynamics, and river access and subsistence opportunities for rural indigenous communities. Projections of continued warming suggest that Alaska’s boreal forest will undergo significant functional and structural changes within the next few decades that are unprecedented in the last 6000 years. The impact of these social–ecological changes will depend in part on the extent of landscape reorganization between uplands and lowlands and on policies regulating subsistence opportunities for rural communities.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Toward probabilistic post-fire debris-flow hazard decision support

Post-wildfire debris flows (PFDF) threaten life and property in western North America. They are triggered by short-duration, high-intensity rainfall. Following a wildfire, rainfall thresholds are developed that, if exceeded, indicate high likelihood of a PFDF. Existing weather forecast products allow forecasters to identify favorable atmospheric conditions for rainfall intensities that may exceed established thresholds at lead times needed for decision-making (e.g., ≥24 h). However, at these lead times, considerable uncertainty exists regarding rainfall intensity and whether the high-intensity rainfall will intersect the burn area. The approach of messaging on potential hazards given favorable conditions is generally effective in avoiding unanticipated PFDF impacts, but may lead to “messaging fatigue” if favorable triggering conditions are forecast numerous times, yet no PFDF occurs (i.e., false alarm). Forecasters and emergency managers need additional tools that increase their confidence regarding occurrence of short-duration, high-intensity rainfall as well as tools that tie rainfall forecasts to potential PFDF outcomes. We present a concept for probabilistic tools that evaluate PFDF hazards by coupling a high-resolution (1-km), large (100-member) ensemble 24-h precipitation forecast at 5-min resolution with PFDF likelihood and volume models. The observed 15-min maximum rainfall intensities are captured within the ensemble spread, though in highest ∼10% of members. We visualize the model output in several ways to demonstrate most likely and most extreme outcomes and to characterize uncertainty. Our experiment highlights the benefits and limitations of this approach, and provides an initial step toward further developing situational awareness and impact-based decision-support tools for forecasting PFDF hazards.

California↗

USGS2025

Determination of provenance soil type using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) analyses of Pinus ponderosa ash

This study demonstrates the feasibility of determining soil provenance from tree ash composition using elemental analysis and chemometric techniques. To date, no published studies have applied chemometric approaches to classify ash for provenance determination following forest fires. In this work, Pinus ponderosa ash was analyzed to distinguish samples based on soil type and geographic location. Pinus ponderosa , a widely distributed pine species in the western United States where wildfires are prevalent, was selected as a model system. Needles were collected from trees grown in five distinct soil types across northern Arizona and Colorado, then dry-ashed under controlled conditions. Classification was performed using three preprocessing techniques and five machine learning algorithms, including hierarchical modeling structures to optimize separation. Partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) following a Box-Cox transformation yielded the highest classification accuracy, achieving a prediction kappa value of 0.98 for soil type identification. However, classification performance decreased when distinguishing both soil type and geographic location, indicating that additional variability may influence predictive accuracy in broader applications. These findings highlight the potential of inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and machine learning for post-wildfire forensic analysis and environmental monitoring.

Applied Spectroscopy↗

USGS2026

Invasion resistance varies by fuel break type in sagebrush ecosystems

Background Wildfire is an increasingly important driver of changes within sagebrush (Artemisia spp. L.) ecosystems of the western USA, often resulting in increased spread of exotic annual grasses, such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), and subsequent losses of native vegetation and wildlife habitat. Fuel breaks— areas of land treated to reduce or redistribute fuel loads — are widely implemented to help prevent the spread of wildfires and provide areas to facilitate firefighting efforts. However, localized installation and maintenance of fuel breaks directly reduce or remove vegetation and may propagate the spread of exotic annual grasses into fuel break boundaries and surrounding areas, inadvertently weakening ecological resilience to disturbance. To investigate if exotic annual grass cover was associated with mowed or green strip fuel breaks across the sagebrush biome, we combined multiple data sources and methodologies. We used targeted field surveys and land-management agency monitoring data within a space-for-time substitution framework coupled with a progressive-change before-after control-impact (PC BACI) study design using historical remotely sensed vegetation cover data which allowed us to account for potential confounding effects of roads on annual grass cover. Results Models using both field collected and remotely sensed vegetation indices estimated increases in exotic annual grass cover over time following mowed fuel break installation, and higher exotic annual grass cover closer to mowed fuel breaks. These increases in exotic annual grass occurred within, at 500 m and at 1000 m from mowed fuel breaks. However, we found variable patterns of exotic annual grass after green strip fuel break installation depending on the data source. No increase in exotic annual grass were indicated by either analysis at distances greater than 500 m from green strip fuel breaks. However, our and field data analyses disagreed on the direction of the association of exotic annual grass cover and green strip fuel breaks. Conclusions Although fuel breaks are an important tool in managing wildland fire, our analysis underscores the importance of planting fire-resistant vegetation, rather than mowing alone, to reduce invasion by annual grasses within and around fuel breaks in sagebrush ecosystems. In addition, site characteristics that hinder the proliferation of exotic annual grasses could be evaluated when installing fuel breaks to minimize unintended effects of exotic annual grass on surrounding sagebrush habitat.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2025

The mountains are calling, but will visitors go? Modeling the effect of weather and air quality on visitation to Pacific Northwest parks and protected areas using mobile device data

We investigated how visitors to federal, state, and local parks and protected areas (PPAs) respond to weather and air quality conditions in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), United States. Specifically, we modeled the relationship between weekly visitation and mean weekly minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, Air Quality Index (AQI), and particulate matter 2.5 concentration (PM2.5, often used as an indicator of wildfire smoke) during an extended peak visitation season from 2017 to 2021 in 91 PNW PPAs. We used mobile device data from StreetLight Data Inc. to estimate weekly vehicular visitation. Our findings indicate that increasing precipitation corresponded with decreased weekly visitation to all three types of PPAs and rising minimum temperatures corresponded with increased visitation. We found that rising maximum temperatures corresponded with increased visitation in federal and local PPAs, but corresponded with decreased visitation in local PPAs once temperatures reach a maximum threshold. We did not observe a maximum threshold effect in federal or state settings. Further, we found that the effect of air quality and smoke on visitation varies based on the metric used: increased PM2.5 concentrations (possibly indicating the presence of wildfire smoke) in federal and local PPAs corresponded with decreased visitation, while increased AQI in federal PPAs corresponded with increased visitation. These findings indicate that visitors may respond differently to different types of air pollution. Our results have implications for adapting peak- and shoulder- season visitor use management to current and future climate change within and beyond PPAs of the PNW.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2013

Woodland dynamics at the northern range periphery: A challenge for protected area management in a changing world

Managers of protected natural areas increasingly are confronted with novel ecological conditions and conflicting objectives to preserve the past while fostering resilience for an uncertain future. This dilemma may be pronounced at range peripheries where rates of change are accelerated and ongoing invasions often are perceived as threats to local ecosystems. We provide an example from City of Rocks National Reserve (CIRO) in southern Idaho, positioned at the northern range periphery of pinyon-juniper (P-J) woodland. Reserve managers are concerned about P-J woodland encroachment into adjacent sagebrush steppe, but the rates and biophysical variability of encroachment are not well documented and management options are not well understood. We quantified the rate and extent of woodland change between 1950 and 2009 based on a random sample of aerial photo interpretation plots distributed across biophysical gradients. Our study revealed that woodland cover remained at approximately 20% of the study area over the 59-year period. In the absence of disturbance, P-J woodlands exhibited the highest rate of increase among vegetation types at 0.37% yr −1 . Overall, late-successional P-J stands increased in area by over 100% through the process of densification (infilling). However, wildfires during the period resulted in a net decrease of woody evergreen vegetation, particularly among early and mid-successional P-J stands. Elevated wildfire risk associated with expanding novel annual grasslands and drought is likely to continue to be a fundamental driver of change in CIRO woodlands. Because P-J woodlands contribute to regional biodiversity and may contract at trailing edges with global warming, CIRO may become important to P-J woodland conservation in the future. Our study provides a widely applicable toolset for assessing woodland ecotone dynamics that can help managers reconcile the competing demands to maintain historical fidelity and contribute meaningfully to the U.S. protected area network in a future with novel, no-analog ecosystems.

Idaho↗

USGS2016

Trace elements in stormflow, ash, and burned soil following the 2009 station fire in southern California

Most research on the effects of wildfires on stream water quality has focused on suspended sediment and nutrients in streams and water bodies, and relatively little research has examined the effects of wildfires on trace elements. The purpose of this study was two-fold: 1) to determine the effect of the 2009 Station Fire in the Angeles National Forest northeast of Los Angeles, CA on trace element concentrations in streams, and 2) compare trace elements in post-fire stormflow water quality to criteria for aquatic life to determine if trace elements reached concentrations that can harm aquatic life. Pre-storm and stormflow water-quality samples were collected in streams located inside and outside of the burn area of the Station Fire. Ash and burned soil samples were collected from several locations within the perimeter of the Station Fire. Filtered concentrations of Fe, Mn, and Hg and total concentrations of most trace elements in storm samples were elevated as a result of the Station Fire. In contrast, filtered concentrations of Cu, Pb, Ni, and Se and total concentrations of Cu were elevated primarily due to storms and not the Station Fire. Total concentrations of Se and Zn were elevated as a result of both storms and the Station Fire. Suspended sediment in stormflows following the Station Fire was an important transport mechanism for trace elements. Cu, Pb, and Zn primarily originate from ash in the suspended sediment. Fe primarily originates from burned soil in the suspended sediment. As, Mn, and Ni originate from both ash and burned soil. Filtered concentrations of trace elements in stormwater samples affected by the Station Fire did not reach levels that were greater than criteria established for aquatic life. Total concentrations for Fe, Pb, Ni, and Zn were detected at concentrations above criteria established for aquatic life.

California↗

USGS2024

Abiotic and demographic drivers of flea parasitism on deer mice in a recovering mixed-conifer forest a decade postfire

With the intensity and frequency of wildfires increasing rapidly, the need to study the ecological effects of these wildfires is also growing. An understudied aspect of fire ecology is the effect fires have on parasite–host interactions, including ectoparasites that might be pathogen vectors. Although some studies have examined the impacts of fire on ticks, studies on other ectoparasites, including pathogen vectors, are rare. To help address this knowledge gap, we examined the abiotic and biotic factors that predict the likelihood and extent of parasitism of deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ) by fleas within a landscape of unburned and recovering burned (>9 yr postfire) mixed conifer forests. We sampled 227 individual deer mice across 27 sites within the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico in 2022 and quantified measures of parasitism by fleas (primarily Aetheca wagneri ). These sites were distributed in both unburned areas (n = 15) and recovering burned areas (n = 12), with the latter derived from 2 large fires, the Las Conchas fire (2011) and the Thompson Ridge fire (2013). Using these data, we tested for differences in prevalence, mean abundance, and mean intensity of fleas on deer mice, focusing on the predictive importance of host sex and fire history. We also created generalized linear mixed-effects models to investigate the best host and environmental predictors of parasitism by fleas. Approximately a decade postfire, we found minimal evidence to suggest that fire history influenced either the presence or intensity of fleas on deer mice. Rather, at the current forest-regeneration stage, the extent of parasitism by fleas was best predicted by measures of host sex, body condition, and the trapline's ability to accumulate water, as measured through topography. As host body condition increased, the probability of males being parasitized increased, whereas the opposite pattern was seen for females. Male mice also had significantly greater flea loads. Among potential abiotic predictors, the topographic wetness index or compound topographic index (a proxy for soil moisture) was positively related to flea intensity, suggesting larger flea populations in burrows with higher relative humidity. In summary, although fire may potentially have short-term impacts on the likelihood and extent of host parasitism by fleas, in this recovering study system, host characteristics and topographic wetness index are the primary predictors of parasitism by fleas.

New Mexico↗

USGS2016

Nesting ecology of Whimbrels in boreal Alaska

Breeding ecology studies of boreal waders have been relatively scarce in North America. This paucity is due in part to boreal habitats being difficult to access, and boreal waders being widely dispersed and thus difficult to monitor. Between 2008 and 2014 we studied the nesting ecology of Whimbrels Numenius phaeopus hudsonicus in interior Alaska, a region characterized by an active wildfire regime. Our objectives were to (1) describe the nesting ecology of Whimbrels in tundra patches within the boreal forest, (2) assess the influence of habitat features at multiple scales on nest-site selection, and (3) characterize factors aﬀecting nest survival. Whimbrels nested in the largest patches and exhibited a consistently compressed annual breeding schedule. We hypothesized that these Whimbrels would exhibit synchronous and clustered nesting, but observed synchronous nesting in only 2009 and 2011, and evidence of clustered nesting at just one study area in 2009, providing limited support for the hypothesis. Nests tended to be on hummocks and exhibited lateral concealment around the bowl, suggesting a trade-oﬀ between a greater view from the nest and concealment. However, our analysis failed to identify other important habitat features at scales from 1–400 m from the nest. Our best-supported nest survival model showed a strong difference between our two main study areas, but this difference remains largely unexplained. Given the increased frequency, severity, and extent of wildfires predicted under climate change scenarios, our study highlights the importance of monitoring the persistence of boreal tundra patches and the Whimbrels breeding therein.

Alaska↗

USGS2007

Human influence on California fire regimes

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2008

Fire severity and ecosytem responses following crown fires in California shrublands

Chaparral shrublands burn in large high-intensity crown fires. Managers interested in how these wildfires affect ecosystem processes generally rely on surrogate measures of fire intensity known as fire severity metrics. In shrublands burned in the autumn of 2003, a study of 250 sites investigated factors determining fire severity and ecosystem responses. Using structural equation modeling we show that stand age, prefire shrub density, and the shortest interval of the prior fire history had significant direct effects on fire severity, explaining >50% of the variation in severity. Fire severity per se is of interest to resource managers primarily because it is presumed to be an indicator of important ecosystem processes such as vegetative regeneration, community recovery, and erosion. Fire severity contributed relatively little to explaining patterns of regeneration after fire. Two generalizations can be drawn: fire severity effects are mostly short-lived, i.e., by the second year they are greatly diminished, and fire severity may have opposite effects on different functional types. Species richness exhibited a negative relationship to fire severity in the first year, but fire severity impacts were substantially less in the second postfire year and varied by functional type. Much of this relationship was due to alien plants that are sensitive to high fire severity; at all scales from 1 to 1000 m 2 , the percentage of alien species in the postfire flora declined with increased fire severity. Other aspects of disturbance history are also important determinants of alien cover and richness as both increased with the number of times the site had burned and decreased with time since last fire. A substantial number of studies have shown that remote-sensing indices are correlated with field measurements of fire severity. Across our sites, absolute differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) was strongly correlated with field measures of fire severity and with fire history at a site but relative dNBR was not. Despite being correlated with fire severity, absolute dNBR showed little or no relationship with important ecosystem responses to wildfire such as shrub resprouting or total vegetative regeneration. These findings point to a critical need for further research on interpreting remote sensing indices as applied to postfire management of these shrublands.

Ecological Applications↗