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Applications of a simulation model to decisions in mallard management

A system comprising simulation models and data bases for habitat availability and nest success rates was used to predict results from a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management plan and to compare six management methods with a control. Individual treatments in the applications included land purchase for waterfowl production, wetland easement purchase, lease of uplands for waterfowl management, cropland retirement, use of no-till winter wheat, delayed cutting of alfalfa, installation of nest baskets, nesting island construction, and use of predator-resistant fencing.The simulations predicted that implementation of the management plan would increase recruits by 24%. Nest baskets were the most effective treatment, accounting for 20.4% of the recruits. No-till winter wheat was the second most effective, accounting for 5.9% of the recruits. Wetland loss due to drainage would cause an 11% loss of breeding population in 10 years.The models were modified to account for migrational homing. The modification indicated that migrational homing would enhance the effects of management. Nest success rates were critical contributions to individual management methods. The most effective treatments, such as nest baskets, had high success rates and affected a large portion of the breeding population.Economic analyses indicated that nest baskets would be the most economical of the three techniques tested. The applications indicated that the system is a useful tool to aid management decisions, but data are scarce for several important variables. Basic research will be required to adequately model the effect of migrational homing and density dependence on production. The comprehensive nature of predictions desired by managers will also require that production models like the one described here be extended to encompass the entire annual cycle of waterfowl.

Fish and Wildlife Technical Report↗

Lead

Lead poisoning of waterfowl is neither a new disease nor a subject without controversy. The use of lead shot for waterfowl hunting within the United States has been prohibited and efforts are underway to ban the use of lead fishing sinkers and prohibit the use of lead shot for nonwaterfowl hunting. The first documented reports within the United States of lead-poisoned waterfowl were from Texas in 1874. Numerous other reports and studies added to those findings during the years and decades that followed. However, strong opposition to nontoxic shot requirements prevented full implementation of them until 1991. A full transition to nontoxic shot shells for all hunting and to nontoxic fishing sinkers and jig heads for fishing within the United States will not happen easily. The continued use of lead shot and lead fishing weights and the large amounts of these materials previously deposited in environments where birds feed assure that lead poisoning will remain a common bird disease for some time.

Information and Technology Report↗

Duck plague

Duck plague is caused by a herpesvirus. Infection often results in an acute, contagious, and fatal disease. As with many other herpesviruses, duck plague virus can establish inapparent infections in birds that survive exposure to it, a state referred to as latency. During latency, the virus cannot be detected by standard methods for virus isolation. Studies of domestic species of waterfowl have detected multiple strains of the virus that vary in their ability to cause disease and death. Little is known about the response of wild waterfowl to strain differences. Duck plague outbreaks are thought to be caused when birds that carry the virus shed it through fecal or oral discharge, thus releasing the virus into food and water with which susceptible birds may have contact. Experimental studies have demonstrated spontaneous virus shedding by duck plague carriers during spring. Changes in the duration of daylight and onset of breeding are thought to be physiological stresses that stimulate virus shedding at this time of year. The carriers are immune to the disease, but the virus shed by them causes infection and disease among susceptible waterfowl. Bird-to-bird contact and contact with virus that has contaminated the environment perpetuate an outbreak. Scavenging and decomposition of carcasses of infected birds also contaminate the environment by releasing viruses from tissues and body fluids. Virus transmission through the egg has been reported, but the role of the egg in the disease cycle remains to be resolved.

Information and Technology Report↗

High tides and rising seas: potential effects on estuarine waterbirds

Coastal waterbirds are vulnerable to water-level changes especially under predictions of accelerating sea-level rise and increased storm frequency in the next century. Tidal and wind-driven fluctuations in water levels affecting marshes, their invertebrate communities, and their dependent waterbirds are manifested in daily, monthly, seasonal, annual, and supra-annual (e.g., decadal or 18.6-yr) periodicities. Superimposed on these cyclic patterns is a long-term (50?80 yr) increase in relative sea-level rise that varies from about 2?4 + mm/yr along the Atlantic coastline. At five study sites selected on marsh islands from Cape Cod, Massachusetts to coastal Virginia, we monitored marsh elevation changes and flooding, tide variations over time, and waterbird use. We found from longterm marsh core data that marsh elevations at three of five sites may not be sufficient to maintain pace with current sea-level rise. Results of the short-term (3?4 yr) measures using surface elevation tables suggest a more dramatic difference, with marsh elevation change at four of five sites falling below relative sea-level rise. In addition, we have found a significant increase (in three of four cases) in the rate of surface marsh flooding in New Jersey and Virginia over the past 70?80 yr during May?July when waterbirds are nesting on or near the marsh surface. Short-term, immediate effects of flooding will jeopardize annual fecundity of many species of concern to federal and state agencies, most notably American Black Duck (Anas rubripes), Nelson?s Sharp-tailed Sparrow (Ammodramus nelsoni), Saltmarsh Sharp-tailed Sparrow (A. caudacutus), Seaside Sparrow (A. maritima), Coastal Plain Swamp Sparrow (Melospiza georgiana nigrescens), Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis), Forster?s Tern (Sterna forsteri), Gull-billed Tern (S. nilotica), Black Skimmer (Rynchops niger), and American Oystercatcher (Haemotopus palliatus). Forster?s Terns are probably most at risk given the large proportion of their breeding range in the mid-Atlantic and their saltmarsh specialization. At a scale of 1?2 decades, vegetation changes (saltmeadow cordgrass [Spartina patens] and salt grass [Distichlis spicata] converting to smooth cordgrass [Spartina alternifl ora]), interior pond expansion and erosion of marshes will reduce nesting habitat for many of these species, but may enhance feeding habitat of migrant shorebirds and/or migrant or wintering waterfowl. At scales of 50?100 yr, reversion of marsh island complexes to open water may enhance populations of open-bay waterfowl, e.g., Bufflehead (Bucephala albeola) and Canvasback (Aythya valisneria), but reduce nesting habitats dramatically for the above named marsh-nesting species, may reduce estuarine productivity by loss of the detrital food web and nursery habitat for fish and invertebrates, and cause redistribution of waterfowl, shorebirds, and other species. Such scenarios are more likely to occur in the mid- and north Atlantic regions since these estuaries are lower in sediment delivery on average than those in the Southeast. A simple hypothetical example from New Jersey is presented where waterbirds are forced to shift from submerged natural marshes to nearby impoundments, resulting in roughly a 10-fold increase in density. Whether prey fauna are sufficiently abundant to support this level of increase remains an open question, but extreme densities in confined habitats would exacerbate competition, increase disease risk, and possibly increase predation.

Book chapter↗

Fifty-sixth Christmas Bird Count. 147. Southern Dorchester County, Md

Summary and Recommendations: We suggest that managers are approaching the limits of their ability to improve waterfowl harvest management, primarily because the information needed to make better decisions is being sacrificed by the current approach to setting regulations. We propose an actively adaptive management strategy in which regulatory decisions play a dominant role in reducing uncertainty about population dynamics. The proposed strategy recognizes 'value' in acquiring knowledge only to the extent that it contributes to the objective of optimizing harvests. To implement this strategy, managers will need: (1) a set of regulatory options, with possible constraints on their use; (2) quantifiable harvest management objectives; (3) a set of models that represent an array of meaningful hypotheses about the effects of regulations on populations; and (4) a measure of credibility (or likelihood) for each model, which can be updated regularly using information from waterfowl monitoring programs. Adaptive optimization is an iterative process in which the harvest-management policy converges over time to one that maximizes harvest under the most appropriate model. At each time step, an optimal regulatory decision is identified based on the state of the system and the model likelihoods. In the next time step, predicted population changes from the alternative models are compared with the actual changes provided by the monitoring program, The likelihoods are increased or decreased to the extent that predicted and actual population changes correspond. These updated likelihoods then are used in setting regulations in the next cycle and the process begins again. This iterative process produces the most informative regulations when uncertainty is prevalent and produces maximum sustainable yields as uncertainty is eliminated. We see no major obstacles to implementing this adaptive strategy, although there are a number of practical considerations. First and foremost, managers should assess the 'value' of learning. Only when there is a high degree of uncertainty about the effects of hunting regulations on population dynamics will the merit of our proposed strategy be evident. We suggest that this almost always will be true given our current understanding of the relationship between annual regulations, survival and population growth in waterfowl. Nonetheless, careful consideration should be given to formulating the set of alternative models. There is no value in distinguishing between models which differ in their mathematical formulation or biological realism, but which suggest similar harvest strategies. We suspect that 'mechanistic' models (i.e., those that attempt to capture the essence of biological processes) will make better candidates for model sets than so-called 'phenomenological' models. Assuming that all model sets include a good approximation of reality, learning rates will be dependent on the quality of monitoring programs. Fortunately, a variety of high-quality monitoring plans for many duck and goose populations of North America, when used with our adaptive approach, should provide new knowledge about population dynamics and response to hunting, and, thus, lead to improved management.

Audubon Field Notes↗

Fifty-sixth Christmas Bird Count. 147. Southern Dorchester County, Md

Summary and Recommendations: We suggest that managers are approaching the limits of their ability to improve waterfowl harvest management, primarily because the information needed to make better decisions is being sacrificed by the current approach to setting regulations. We propose an actively adaptive management strategy in which regulatory decisions play a dominant role in reducing uncertainty about population dynamics. The proposed strategy recognizes 'value' in acquiring knowledge only to the extent that it contributes to the objective of optimizing harvests. To implement this strategy, managers will need: (1) a set of regulatory options, with possible constraints on their use; (2) quantifiable harvest management objectives; (3) a set of models that represent an array of meaningful hypotheses about the effects of regulations on populations; and (4) a measure of credibility (or likelihood) for each model, which can be updated regularly using information from waterfowl monitoring programs. Adaptive optimization is an iterative process in which the harvest-management policy converges over time to one that maximizes harvest under the most appropriate model. At each time step, an optimal regulatory decision is identified based on the state of the system and the model likelihoods. In the next time step, predicted population changes from the alternative models are compared with the actual changes provided by the monitoring program, The likelihoods are increased or decreased to the extent that predicted and actual population changes correspond. These updated likelihoods then are used in setting regulations in the next cycle and the process begins again. This iterative process produces the most informative regulations when uncertainty is prevalent and produces maximum sustainable yields as uncertainty is eliminated. We see no major obstacles to implementing this adaptive strategy, although there are a number of practical considerations. First and foremost, managers should assess the 'value' of learning. Only when there is a high degree of uncertainty about the effects of hunting regulations on population dynamics will the merit of our proposed strategy be evident. We suggest that this almost always will be true given our current understanding of the relationship between annual regulations, survival and population growth in waterfowl. Nonetheless, careful consideration should be given to formulating the set of alternative models. There is no value in distinguishing between models which differ in their mathematical formulation or biological realism, but which suggest similar harvest strategies. We suspect that 'mechanistic' models (i.e., those that attempt to capture the essence of biological processes) will make better candidates for model sets than so-called 'phenomenological' models. Assuming that all model sets include a good approximation of reality, learning rates will be dependent on the quality of monitoring programs. Fortunately, a variety of high-quality monitoring plans for many duck and goose populations of North America, when used with our adaptive approach, should provide new knowledge about population dynamics and response to hunting, and, thus, lead to improved management.

Audubon Field Notes↗

"Duck stamp" dollars reserve native prairie tracts

Ducks and wetlands are inseparable in the prairies. Hunters know this, bird watchers know this, wildlife managers know this, and most importantly people who manage the croplands and rangelands know this. The 1,746 tracts of native prairie within these upland-wetland complexes known as Waterfowl Production Areas are not the only lands purchased with "duck stamp" dollars. Considerable acreages have also been purchased in central and southern parts of the United States to provide staging, resting, and wintering areas for waterfowl. Since 1934, when "duck stamps" were first sold, nearly 2.5 million acres of waterfowl habitats have been acquired or taken under easement within the United States with revenue from these sales. By purchasing "duck stamps", more than 2.2 million people provide over $16.5 million in annual revenue. It is certainly gratifying to know that some of the remaining native prairie remnants in the Northern Great Plains are being reserved for the future with "duck stamp" dollars.

Rangelands↗

Results of a modeling workshop concerning preservation and protection of wetlands in North Dakota

In a recently signed letter, the Governor of North Dakota and the Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Fish and Wildlife and Parks charged a joint state-federal study group with examination of two separate questions: 1) mitigation for the Garrison Diversion Project; and 2) planning for long-range protection and preservation of fish and wildlife habitat in North Dakota. The cochair for this study group (the Secretary of the Interior's Field Representative, Denver, Colorado, and the Natural Resources Coordinator for North Dakota) further articulated the charge concerning the second of these two questions to include three steps: 1) development of a general plan for preservation and protection of migratory waterfowl and their associated wetland habitat; 2) a comprehensive analysis of alternative strategies, including opportunities and constraints, for achieving the goals articulated in Step 1; and 3) design of a coordinated state-federal public information program to assist in plan implementation. In order to obtain input from a variety of interests, the joint study group initiated step 2 activities with a five-day workshop in Bismarck, N. D.; December 8-12, 1980. The objectives of the workshop were: 1) to identify alternative strategies for preserving and enhancing waterfowl production habitat in North Dakota; 2) to identify opportunities and constraints associated with those alternatives; and 3) to promote communication and understanding of the implications of those alternatives for all affected parties. To achieve these objectives, the workshop utilized a group of concepts and techniques collectively known as Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA). Developed by Dr. C. S. Holling and his co-workers at the University of British Columbia, the AEA process involves planners, managers, scientists, and other interested parties in a structures atmosphere whose focus is the construction and examination of a computerized simulation model of the resource system under consideration. The modeling process is used to promote communication, identify pertinent issues, identify key data gaps and uncertainties, direct research efforts to fill those gaps, and explore the possible consequences of various management alternatives. The workshop, which was facilitated by the AEA Group of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), was attended by approximately 25 invited participants representing a variety of interests concerned with the wetlands protection issue in North Dakota. During the week workshop participants conceptualized and constructed a computerized simulation model incorporating many of the hydrologic, agricultural, and wildlife aspects of the wetlands issue. During the process of constructing this model and examining its behavior, participants identified several interesting alternative strategies that may prove useful in an overall wetland protection program, along with a variety of constraints associated with each. Perhaps the most interesting of these alternatives revolve around the idea that there may be a variety of cases in which water can be retained on the land, with concommitant benefits both for wildlife and flood control, without detriment to agricultural productivity. Examples of this kind of activity include flooding of previously drained Type I wetlands in summer fallow areas, installation of smaller drains in Type I and III wetlands to reduce the rate at which water runs off in the spring, and use of strategically located gates in drainage channels associated with the state highway system to slow runoff and create wetland habitat. Several other alternatives discussed at the workshop are related to the notion of using available, uncommitted water supplied to enhance or create wetlands. Several cases were cited in which more certain water supplies would be useful in increasing waterfowl production or reducing disease problems, especially in dry years. Water for such purposes might come from a variety of current of proposed water development projects, both large and small scale. Finally, the potential for re-establishment of "unsuccessfully" drained (i.e., not consistently usable for agricultural purposes) wetlands was discussed at some length. There are apparently substantial acreages of such wetlands in North Dakota and a program to acquire and rehabilitate them might be of considerable utility. The workshop was thus successful in accomplishing its first two objectives--identification of alternative strategies, opportunities, and constraints. However, it would be naive to suppose that any of the alternatives discussed offers a complete, simple solution to the wetlands issue in North Dakota. The most important result of the workshop may therefore be that which was accomplished relative to the third objective--promotion of communication and understanding. It was gratifying and encouraging to see the spirit of communication and cooperation that developed by the end of the workshop. The fact that representatives of many of the interests concerned with the wetlands issue participated in an open exchange of ideas and information marks an important step forward. We believe that it is imperative that this cooperative attitude be maintained, and that there are a variety of ways in which this might be accomplished. Perhaps the simplest would be a small-scale pilot project and research effort to determine the effects of wetland maintenance on summer fallow areas. Such a research program would provide not only useful information, but an opportunity for many of the affected interests to begin working toward mutually acceptable solutions to the overall wetlands issue.

North Dakota↗

Modeling potential impacts of the Garrison Diversion Unit project on Sand Lake and Arrowwood National Wildlife Refuges: a feasibility analysis

The Garrison Diversion Unit (GDU) of the Pick-Sloan Missouri Basin program was authorized in 1965, with the purpose of diverting Missouri River water to the James River for irrigation, municipal and industrial water supply, fish and wildlife habitat, recreation, and flood control. The project was reauthorized in 1986, with the specification that comprehensive studies be conducted to address a variety of issues. One of these ongoing studies addresses potential impacts of GDU construction and operation on lands of the National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) system, including Arrowwood and Sand Lake Refuges (the Refuges) on the James River. A number of concerns at these Refuges have been identified; the primary concerns addressed in this report include increased winter return flows, which would limit control of rough fish; increased turbidity during project construction, which would decrease production of sago pondweed; and increased water level fluctuations in the late spring and early summer, which would destroy the nests of some over-water nesting birds. The facilitated workshop described in this report was conducted February 18-20, 1987, under the joint sponsorship of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the North Dakota Game and Fish Department. The primary objectives of the workshop were to evaluate the feasibility of using simulation modeling techniques to estimate GDU impacts on Arrowwood and Sand Lake Refuges and to suggest enhancements to the James River Refuge monitoring program. The workshop was structured around the formulation of four submodels: a Hydrology and Water Quality submodel to simulate changes in Refuge pool elevations, turnover rates, and water quality parameters (e.g., total dissolved solids, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, water temperature, pesticides) due to GDU construction and operation; a Vegetation submodel to simulate concomitant changes in wetland communities (e.g., sago pondweed, wet meadows, deep and shallow marsh); a Fish submodel to estimate changes in abundance or biomass of rough fish (carp, buffalo) and sportfish (northern pike); and a Wildlife submodel to calculate indices of waterfowl abundance or habitat suitability (e.g., for mallards, western grebes, migrating diving ducks, white-faced ibis, egrets, over-water nesters). Submodels considered weekly to monthly changes in pools within a Refuge over a time horizon of 30-50 years. Based on workshop discussions and past experience with impact analysis modeling, a phased modeling approach was recommended for the James River Refuges analysis. The first phase would involve two modeling efforts. The existing Sand Lake hydrology model, and a similar one developed for Arrowwood NWR, would be validated and used to predict changes on pool elevations and winter inflows to each pool for a variety of GDU alternatives. Outputs from simulations would then be evaluated in terms of potential fish and wildlife impacts. For example, the models could generate indices comparing the magnitude and timing of winter inflows for pre- and postproject conditions; fisheries biologists could then use these indices to better quantify their concerns relative to potential changes in the frequency of rough-fish control. The other modeling effort in the first phase would involve developing a sago pondweed growth model to integrate Refuge monitoring data and existing literature and perhaps to address some questions concerning turbidity impacts. A second phase of simulation modeling would be undertaken only if the initial analyses of hydrologic outputs indicated significant potential problems and if monitoring and research projects had clarified some of the biological and physical processes that cannot be modeled reliably at the present time (e.g., resuspension of sediments by carp, immigration and winter mortality of fish, loss of waterfowl nests due to wave action). The second phase would attempt to develop an integrated impact assessment model. In order to address some of the biological and physical processes that presently are not well understood, a number of studies and enhancements to the Refuge monitoring program were suggested. The Hydrology and Water Quality workgroup recommended increasing turbidity and dissolved oxygen sampling, dropping expensive analysis of some trace elements, adding more pesticide analysis (including some biological monitoring), and developing better area-capacity data for the Sand Lake hydrology model. The Vegetation workgroup suggested expanding the number of monitoring stations, monitoring photosynthetically active radiation by depth, and modifying the biomass sampling procedure and schedule. Also suggested were additional analyses of existing Refuge monitoring data and additional field studies concerning sago growth under a variety of environmental conditions and effects of rough fish density on sago. A careful examination of Refuge narrative reports was recommended by the Fish workgroup to characterize conditions that led to various rates of winter-kill. Monitoring enhancement related to a better understanding of fish population dynamics included increasing dissolved oxygen monitoring, continuing present monitoring of fish movement upstream from Jamestown Reservoir into Arrowwood NWR, initiating similar efforts for upstream movement into Sand Lake NWR and downstream movements into both Refuges, and augmenting the present gillnetting program (or replacing it) with sampling for population and age/size structure estimates. The Wildlife workgroup suggested estimating the relative density of mallard nests in over-water and wet meadow nesting areas, estimating the number of western grebe nests lost due to wave action, delineating wet meadows on the Refuge vegetation maps, estimating annual tuber consumption by birds, and monitoring insect/macroinvertebrate abundance. The workgroup also suggested research studies to better understand the relationships between food supplies and the growth and survival of ducklings and young grebes. the workshop discussions also helped identify some suggestions for modifying project features that, if feasible from an engineering and operational standpoint, would reduce impacts on Refuge lands. These suggestions included: designing drains with control structures or small "reregulation" reservoirs to hold winter return flows that might adversely affect rough fish control, spreading construction activities over a number of years to reduce potential impacts of turbidity on sago pondweed in any single year, scheduling construction to occur after the spring sprouting and elongation growth stages to reduce impacts on sago pondweed, and installing "quick acting" control structures at Arrowwood NWR to reduce pool level fluctuations that might destroy nests of some over-water nesting waterfowl.

Report↗

A technique for estimating seed production of common moist soil plants

Seeds of native herbaceous vegetation adapted to germination in hydric soils (i.e., moist-soil plants) provide waterfowl with nutritional resources including essential amino acids, vitamins, and minerals that occur only in small amounts or are absent in other foods. These elements are essential for waterfowl to successfully complete aspects of the annual cycle such as molt and reproduction. Moist-soil vegetation also has the advantages of consistent production of foods across years with varying water availability, low management costs, high tolerance to diverse environmental conditions, and low deterioration rates of seeds after flooding. The amount of seed produced differs among plant species and varies annually depending on environmental conditions and management practices. Further, many moist-soil impoundments contain diverse vegetation, and seed production by a particular plant species usually is not uniform across an entire unit. Consequently, estimating total seed production within an impoundment is extremely difficult. The chemical composition of seeds also varies among plant species. For example, beggartick seeds contain high amounts of protein but only an intermediate amount of minerals. In contrast, barnyardgrass is a good source of minerals but is low in protein. Because of these differences, it is necessary to know the amount of seed produced by each plant species if the nutritional resources provided in an impoundment are to be estimated. The following technique for estimating seed production takes into account the variation resulting from different environmental conditions and management practices as well as differences in the amount of seed produced by various plant species. The technique was developed to provide resource managers with the ability to make quick and reliable estimates of seed production. Although on-site information must be collected, the amount of field time required is small (i.e., about 1 min per sample); sampling normally is accomplished on an area within a few days. Estimates of seed production derived with this technique are used, in combination with other available information, to determine the potential number of waterfowl use-days available and to evaluate the effects of various management strategies on a particular site.

Report↗

Marine birds

In this chapter we review existing knowledge of marine birds in the Gulf of Alaska. Three estuarine systems in the Gulf provide critical habitat for migratory shorebirds and waterfowl: 1) the Stikine River Delta, 2) Cook Inlet, and 3) the Copper River Delta. Over 20 million waterbirds are estimated to use the latter system during spring migration. Western sandpipers, dunlin, and northern pintails numerically dominate this migration. Breeding populations of shorebirds and waterfowl in the Gulf are small compared with those elsewhere in Alaska. Of those Gulf regions suitable for nesting waterfowl and shorebirds, the Copper River Delta is the most important. Species diversity and the number of shorebirds wintering in the Gulf are low; however, water- fowl wintering in the Gulf number at least in the low millions. These birds concentrated in sheltered, near-shore regions where their epibenthic and infaunal prey are accessible. Over nine million seabirds (twenty-six species) nest in the Gulf of Alaska at more than 800 sites. Seabird productivity varies markedly. Food availability seems to have a large influence on reproductive success, especially for surface-feeding species such as the black-legged kittiwake. Seabird densities are highest over shelf and shelf-break habitats during spring migration and in summer. Sooty and short-tailed shearwaters dominate the pelagic avifauna both numerically and in terms of biomass. Seabird densities are generally lower in winter than in summer as a result of both a southward migration of some species and offshore dispersal of others. A variety of prey species are used by seabirds in the Gulf; of these, capelin, sand lance, and euphausiids are of greatest importance. Trophically, seabirds in the Gulf range from near primary con- sumers to third-order carnivores, ingesting an estimated 1,120,000 mt during the 120-day summer period.

Alaska↗

California mallards: a review

Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) are the most abundant breeding waterfowl species in California and are important to waterfowl hunters in the state. California is unique among major North American wintering waterfowl areas, in that most mallards harvested in California are also produced in California, meaning that California must provide both high quality wintering and breeding habitats for mallard populations to remain stable. California’s breeding and wintering mallard population estimates have generally declined since the mid-1990s. Herein, we synthesized existing information on the ecology of breeding mallards in California and summarize key demographic rates. In general, demographic estimates differed substantially from other mallard populations in North America, highlighting the importance of separate management of western mallard populations. We suggest long-term research and monitoring activities to help improve management.

California Fish and Game↗

Aerial strip-transect surveys: Indexing autumn–winter waterbird abundance and distribution in South Carolina

Aerial surveys integrating probability-based sample designs have been implemented successfully to estimate relative abundance of wintering ducks in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri, but these approaches have not been evaluated in the Atlantic Flyway except for American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) along the Atlantic coast. Furthermore, these surveys have not been used to index abundance of other nonbreeding waterbirds. Given elimination or reduction of resources allocated to the Midwinter Waterfowl Survey in the Atlantic Flyway and elsewhere, the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR) expressed a need for reliable surveys to monitor waterfowl and other waterbirds during autumn through winter. We designed stratified aerial strip-transect surveys to estimate population indices for migrating and wintering dabbling ducks (Anatini), diving ducks (Aythini, Mergini, Oxyurini), pelagic and piscivorous waterbirds (Anhingidae, Laridae, Pelicanidae, Phalacrocoracidae), and wading birds (Ardeidae, Ciconiidae, Threskiornithidae) in coastal and inland regions of South Carolina during autumn-winter 2017–2019. We used unequal probability random sampling to estimate population indices with deemed adequate precision (i.e., coefficient of variation [CV] ≤ 20%) and estimated theoretical survey efforts needed to achieve desired precision for future aerial surveys. Indices met our goal for precision in September and January 2018 for wading birds, in February and November 2018 for pelagic waterbirds, and in February 2018 for diving ducks, but never for other ducks during South Carolina waterfowl hunting season. We detected peak abundance of dabbling and diving ducks in January and wading birds and wood storks ( Mycteria americana ) in September. We estimated ~2.5 times greater survey effort was needed across waterbird taxa than was expended to achieve a CV=20%. We also used survey data to depict spatiotemporal variation in waterbird distributions across the study area. Our surveys are applicable for the SCDNR and other agencies seeking to monitor autumn-winter waterbird populations. Although survey refinements are necessary to increase precision in South Carolina, our waterbird indices are useful to assess population trends through time, guide habitat management and restoration efforts, refine local harvest regulations, inform law enforcement to detected illicit activities (e.g., baiting), and monitor possible shifting waterbird distributions in response to land-use and climate change.

South Carolina↗

Premigrational movements and behavior of young mallards and wood ducks in north-central Minnesota

Movements and behavior of 89 young mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and 48 young wood ducks (Aix sponsa) were monitored on a 932-km2 study area in north-central Minnesota in late summer and fall, 1972-74, with telemetry, visual observation, and aerial surveys. Initial flights of both species were confined to the natal (brood) marsh; first flights away from the natal marsh occurred in the third week after fledging in both species. First flights of young mallards and wood ducks away from their natal marshes were not significantly different between the sexes (mallard, mean = 4.95 km for females and 5.83 km for males; wood ducks, mean = 2.31 km for females and 2.64 km for males). However, flights away from the brood marshes by wood ducks were significantly shorter than for mallards.As young mallards and wood ducks grew, their daytime use of the natal marshes decreased in an irregular pattern as both species began daily flights between day- and night-use areas. Locally reared mallards made longer daily flights between use areas than did wood ducks, but wood ducks changed use areas with greater frequency before 1 October. Despite often extensive movements, most locally reared mallards and wood ducks remained in the vicinity of their brood marshes throughout fall until migration.Movement of young birds to new habitat was not the result of random searching and thus fortuitous discovery of nearby areas. Instead, birds seemed to learn of new habitat and develop movement patterns by associating with other birds; locally reared young always moved in the company of flocks of conspecifics that included adults and older immatures.Differences in movement patterns between the sexes of young birds and between young and adult birds cause them to be differentially distributed by age and sex on and near the breeding grounds. These differences are ultimately reflected in the distribution of the hunter harvest. We have interpreted generalizations about such phenomena, developed from analysis of continent-wide mallard banding data, using our data obtained from individually marked birds. We document (a) greater distances moved by early than by late-hatched young in the postbreeding period before migration, (b) differential movement of age and sex cohorts that explains greater hunting mortality of young than adults and of females than males near natal marshes, (c) differences in length and timing of postbreeding movements of adult male mallards and the postfledging movements of immature male mallards that help explain the northerly continental recovery distribution of young males, and (d) differential timing and rate of movement by birds through harvest areas (early departure of males and some return of females to natal marshes after the beginning of hunting) that explain differences in the timing of hunting season recoveries. Behavioral differences between the age and sex cohorts in the fall waterfowl population on and near their breeding grounds in north-central Minnesota can explain observed differences in survival and recovery rates of adult and young birds.The behaviors observed suggest to us that restrictive harvest regulations such as small-area closure may have little or no local benefits at the breeding grounds because premigratory assemblages of birds make extensive movements. In particular, protection of postbreeding adult females and locally reared young might only occur by closing large areas or scheduling extreme delays in the season opening, neither of which may be compatible with equitably apportioning waterfowl harvest at higher latitudes. Additional research on the local effects of restrictive regulations, and on age- and sex-specific differences in the timing, rate, and direction of fall movements of postbreeding waterfowl is needed.

Fish and Wildlife Research↗

Population ecology of the mallard: II. Breeding habitat conditions, size of the breeding populations, and production indices

This report, the second in a series on a comprehensive analysis of mallard population data, provides information on mallard breeding habitat, the size and distribution of breeding populations, and indices to production. The information in this report is primarily the result of large-scale aerial surveys conducted during May and July, 1955-73. The history of the conflict in resource utilization between agriculturalists and wildlife conservation interests in the primary waterfowl breeding grounds is reviewed. The numbers of ponds present during the breeding season and the midsummer period and the effects of precipitation and temperature on the number of ponds present are analyzed in detail. No significant cycles in precipitation were detected and it appears that precipitation is primarily influenced by substantial seasonal and random components. Annual estimates (1955-73) of the number of mallards in surveyed and unsurveyed breeding areas provided estimates of the size and geographic distribution of breeding mallards in North America. The estimated size of the mallard breeding population in North America has ranged from a high of 14.4 million in 1958 to a low of 7.1 million in 1965. Generally, the mallard breeding population began to decline after the 1958 peak until 1962, and remained below 10 million birds until 1970. The decline and subsequent low level of the mallard population between 1959 and 1969 .generally coincided with a period of poor habitat conditions on the major breeding grounds. The density of mallards was highest in the Prairie-Parkland Area with an average of nearly 19.2 birds per square mile. The proportion of the continental mallard breeding population in the Prairie-Parkland Area ranged from 30% in 1962 to a high of 600/0 in 1956. The geographic distribution of breeding mallards throughout North America was significantly related to the number of May ponds in the Prairie-Parkland Area . Estimates of midsummer habitat conditions and indices to production from the July Production Survey were studied in detail. Several indices relating to production showed marked declines from west to east in the Prairie-Parkland Area , these are: (1) density of breeding mallards (per square mile and per May pond), (2) brood density (per square mile and per July pond), (3) average brood size (all species combined), and (4) brood survival from class II to class III. An index to late nesting and renesting efforts was highest during years when midsummer water conditions were good. Production rates of many ducks breeding in North America appear to be regulated by both density-dependent and density-independent factors. Spacing of birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area appeared to be a key factor in the density-dependent regulation of the population. The spacing mechanism, in conjunction with habitat conditions, influenced some birds to overfly the primary breeding grounds into less favorable habitats to the north and northwest where the production rate may be suppressed. The production rate of waterfowl in the Prairie Parkland Area seems to be independent of density (after emigration has taken place) because the production index appears to be a linear function of the number of breeding birds in the area. Similarly, the production rate of waterfowl in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba appeared to be independent of density. Production indices in these northern areas appear to be a linear function of the size of the breeding population. Thus, the density and distribution of breeding ducks is probably regulated through a spacing mechanism that is at least partially dependent on measurable environmental factors. The result is a density-dependent process operating to ultimately effect the production and production rate of breeding ducks on a continent-wide basis. Continental production, and therefore the size of the fall population, is probably partially regulated by the number of birds that are distributed north and northwest into environments less favorable for successful reproduction. Thus, spacing of the birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area and the movement of a fraction of the birds out of the prime breeding areas may be key factors in the density-dependent regulation of the total mallard population.

Resource Publication↗

Quantifying drought’s influence on moist soil seed vegetation in California’s Central Valley through remote sensing

Across the Central Valley of California, millions of wintering waterfowl rely on moist soil seed (MSS) plants that grow in managed seasonal wetlands as a critical source of food. Estimates of MSS plant production are used to set waterfowl habitat targets yet this information is not well known. We created the first Central Valley-wide time series maps of MSS plant distributions and productivity. We found that MSS plant seed yield declined in critical drought years, which corresponded with reduced water delivery to managed wetlands. Our results provide improved food resource estimates and information to help managers prioritize actions as water supply becomes more uncertain with climate change.

California↗

Estimating offsets for avian displacement effects of anthropogenic impacts

Biodiversity offsetting, or compensatory mitigation, is increasingly being used in temperate grassland ecosystems to compensate for unavoidable environmental damage from anthropogenic developments such as transportation infrastructure, urbanization, and energy development. Pursuit of energy independence in the United States will expand domestic energy production. Concurrent with this increased growth is increased disruption to wildlife habitats, including avian displacement from suitable breeding habitat. Recent studies at energy-extraction and -generation facilities have provided evidence for behavioral avoidance and thus reduced use of habitat by breeding waterfowl and grassland birds in the vicinity of energy infrastructure. To quantify and compensate for this loss in value of avian breeding habitat, it is necessary to determine a biologically-based currency so that the sufficiency of offsets in terms of biological equivalent value can be obtained. We describe a method for quantifying the amount of habitat needed to provide equivalent biological value for avifauna displaced by energy and transportation infrastructure, based on the ability to define five metrics: impact distance, impact area, pre-impact density, percent displacement, and offset density. We calculate percent displacement values for breeding waterfowl and grassland birds and demonstrate the applicability of our avian-impact offset method using examples for wind and oil infrastructure. We also apply our method to an example in which the biological value of the offset habitat is similar to the impacted habitat, based on similarity in habitat type (e.g., native prairie), geographical location, land use, and landscape composition, as well as to an example in which the biological value of the offset habitat is dissimilar to the impacted habitat. We provide a worksheet that informs potential users how to apply our method to their specific developments and a framework for developing decision-support tools aimed at achieving landscape-level conservation goals.

Ecological Applications↗

Quantifying drought’s influence on moist soil seed vegetation in California’s Central Valley through time-series remote sensing

Californias Central Valley, USA is a critical component of the Pacific Flyway despite loss of more than 90% of its wetlands. Moist soil seed (MSS) wetland plants are now produced by mimicking seasonal flooding in managed wetlands to provide an essential food resource for waterfowl. Managers need MSS plant area and productivity estimates to support waterfowl conservation, yet this remains unknown at the landscape scale. Also the effects of recent drought on MSS plants have not been quantified. We generated Landsat-derived estimates of extents and productivity (seed yield or its proxy, the green chlorophyll index) of major MSS plants including watergrass (Echinochloa crusgalli) and smartweed (Polygonum spp.) (WGSW), and swamp timothy (Crypsis schoenoides) (ST) in all Central Valley managed wetlands from 20072017. We tested the effects of water year, land ownership and region on plant area and productivity with a multifactor nested analysis of variance. For the San Joaquin Valley we explored the association between water year and water supply, and we developed metrics to support management decisions. MSS plant area maps were based on a support vector machine classification of Landsat phenology metrics (2017 map overall accuracy: 89%). ST productivity maps were created with a linear regression model of seed yield (n=68, R2 = 0.53, normalized RMSE = 10.5%). The Central Valley-wide estimated area for ST in 2017 was 32,369 ha 2,524 ha (95% C.I.), and 13,012 ha 1,384 ha for WGSW. Mean ST seed yield ranged from 577 kg/ha in the Delta Basin to 365 kg/ha in the San Joaquin Basin. WGSW area and ST seed yield decreased while ST area increased in critical drought years compared to normal water years (Scheffes test, p<0.05). Greatest ST area increases occurred in the Sacramento Valley (~75%). Voluntary water deliveries increased in normal water years, and ST seed yield increased with water supply. Z-scores of ST seed yield can be used to evaluate wetland performance and aid resource allocation decisions. Updated maps will support habitat monitoring, conservation planning and water management in future years, which are likely to face greater uncertainty in water availability with climate change.

California↗