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Water-resources activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in South Dakota; fiscal years 1986-87

In South Dakota, the first collection of streamflow data by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was in 1903. Despite its early beginning, it was not until October 16, 1944, that the Bismarck District, comprising the states of North Dakota and South Dakota , was created to assess the water resources of the two states. The next major increase in collection of surface water records occurred during the mid-1940 's as a result of the Pick-Sloan Plan for Missouri Basin development. Since 1944, about 98 water resources studies have been made in South Dakota. These range from reconnaissance-type studies of counties and Indian reservations to research on small basin runoff and toxic wastes, the quality of water in lakes, the use of remote sensing for defining aquifers, and studies using digital models to describe the groundwater regimen and surface water hydraulics such as those currently underway in the James River basin and the Big Sioux River basin. During the past 20 years, 140 formal reports describing the studies and results of investigations have been prepared to inform the public and the scientific community. The location of surface water stations and observation wells in bedrock are tabulated. Brief (1 page) descriptions of current water resources projects in South Dakota include information on the location, purpose, period of performance, cooperating agencies, project leader, and completed reports. (Lantz-PTT)

Open-File Report

Geohydrology, water quality, and simulation of groundwater flow in the stratified-drift aquifer system in Virgil Creek and Dryden Lake Valleys, Town of Dryden, Tompkins County, New York

In 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Tompkins County Planning Department and the Town of Dryden, New York, began a study of the stratified-drift aquifer system in the Virgil Creek and Dryden Lake Valleys in the Town of Dryden, Tompkins County. The study provided geohydrologic data needed by the town and county to develop a strategy to manage and protect their water resources. In this study area, three extensive confined sand and gravel aquifers (the upper, middle, and lower confined aquifers) compose the stratified-drift aquifer system. The Dryden Lake Valley is a glaciated valley oriented parallel to the direction of ice movement. Erosion by ice extensively widened and deepened the valley, truncated bedrock hillsides, and formed a nearly straight, U-shaped bedrock trough. The maximum thickness of the valley fill in the central part of the valley is about 400 feet (ft). The Virgil Creek Valley in the east part of the study area underwent less severe erosion by ice than the Dryden Lake Valley, and hence, it has a bedrock floor that is several hundred feet higher in altitude than that in the Dryden Lake Valley. The sources and amounts of recharge were difficult to identify in most areas because the confined aquifers are overlain by confining units. However, in the vicinity of the Virgil Creek Dam, the upper confined aquifer crops out at land surface in the floodplain of a gorge eroded by Virgil Creek, and this is where the aquifer receives large amounts of recharge from precipitation that directly falls over the aquifer and from seepage losses from Virgil Creek. The results of streamflow measurements made in Virgil Creek where it flows through the gorge indicated that the stream lost 1.2 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) or 0.78 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water in the reach extending from 220 ft downstream from the dam to 1,200 ft upstream from the dam. In the southern part of the study area, large amounts of recharge also replenish the stratified-drift aquifers at the Valley Heads Moraine, which consists of heterogeneous sediments including coarse-grained outwash and kame sediments, as well as zones containing till with a fine-grained matrix. In the southern part of the study area, the confining units are thin and likely to be discontinuous in some places, resulting in windows of permeable sediment, which can more readily transmit recharge from precipitation and from tributaries that lose water as they flow over the valley floor. In contrast, in the northern part of the study area, the confining units are thick, continuous, and comprise homogeneous fine-grained sediments that more effectively confine the aquifers than in the southern part of the study area. Most groundwater in the northern part of the study area discharges to the Village of Dryden municipal production wells, to the outlet to Dryden Lake, to Virgil Creek, and as groundwater underflow that exits the northern boundary of the study area. Most northward-flowing groundwater in the southern part of the study area discharges to Dryden Lake, to the inlet to Dryden Lake, and to homeowner, nonmunicipal community (a mobile home community and several apartments), and commercial wells. Most of this pumped water is returned to the groundwater system via septic systems. Most southward-flowing groundwater in the southern part of the study area discharges to the headwaters of Owego Creek and to agricultural wells; some flow also exits the southern boundary of the study area as groundwater underflow. The largest user of groundwater in the study area is the Village of Dryden. Water use in the village has approximately tripled between the early 1970s when withdrawals ranged between 18 and 30 million gallons per year (Mgal/yr) and from 2000 through 2008 when withdrawals ranged between 75 and 85 Mgal/yr. The estimated groundwater use by homeowners, nonmunicipal communities, and small commercial facilities outside the area supplied by the Village of Dryden municipal wells is estimated to be about 18.4 Mgal/yr. Most of this pumped water is returned to the groundwater system via septic systems. For this investigation, an aquifer test was conducted at the Village of Dryden production well TM 981 (finished in the middle confined aquifer at a well depth of 72 ft) at the Jay Street pumping station during June 19–21, 2007. The aquifer test consisted of pumping production well TM 981 at 104 gallons per minute over a 24-hour period. The drawdown in well TM 981 at the end of 24 hours of pumping was 19.2 ft. Results of the aquifer-test analysis for a partially penetrating well in a confined aquifer indicated that the transmissivity was 1,560 feet squared per day, and the horizontal hydraulic conductivity was 87 feet per day, based on a saturated thickness of 18 ft. During 2003–5, 14 surface-water samples were collected at 8 sites, including Virgil Creek, Dryden Lake outlet, and several tributaries. During 2003 through 2009, eight groundwater samples were collected from eight wells, including three municipal production wells, two test wells, and three domestic wells. Calcium dominates the cation composition, and bicarbonate dominates the anion composition in most groundwater and surface-water samples. None of the common inorganic constituents collected exceeded any Federal or State water-quality standards. Results from a three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater-flow model were used to compute a water budget and to estimate the areal extent of the zone of groundwater contribution to the Village of Dryden municipal production wells. The model-computed water budget indicated that the sources of recharge to the confined aquifer system are precipitation that falls directly on the valley-fill sediments (40 percent of total recharge), stream leakage (35.5 percent), seepage from wetlands and ponds (12 percent), unchanneled runoff and groundwater inflow from the uplands (8.5 percent), and groundwater underflow into the eastern end of the model area (4 percent). Most groundwater discharges to surface-water bodies, including Dryden Lake (33 percent), streams (33 percent), and wetlands and ponds (10 percent of the total). In addition, some groundwater discharges as underflow out of the southern and northern ends of the model area (15 percent), to simulated pumping wells (4.5 percent), and to drains that represent seepage from the bluffs exposed in the gorge in the vicinity of the Virgil Creek Dam (4.5 percent). The areal extents of the zones of groundwater contribution for Village of Dryden municipal production wells TM 202 (Lake Road pump station, finished in the upper confined aquifer) and TM 981 (Jay Street pump station, finished in the middle confined aquifer) are 0.5 square mile (mi 2 ) and 0.9 mi 2 , respectively. The areal extent of the zone of contribution to production well TM 202 extends 2.2 miles (mi) southeast into the Virgil Creek Valley, whereas production well TM 981 extends 3.8 mi south in the Dryden Lake Valley. The areal extent of the zone of contribution to production well TM1046 (South Street pump station) is 1.4 mi 2 and extends 2.4 mi into Dryden Lake Valley and 0.5 mi into Virgil Creek Valley.

New York

Potential effects of surface coal mining on the hydrology of the Greenleaf-Miller area, Ashland coal field, southeastern Montana

The Greenleaf-Miller area of the Ashland coal field contains reserves of Federal coal that have been identified for potential lease sale. A hydrologic study was conducted in the potential lease area in 1981 to describe the existing hydrologic system and to assess potential impacts of surface coal mining on local water resources. The hydrologic data collected from wells, test holes, and springs were used to identify aquifers in the alluvium (Pleistocene and Holocene age) and the Tongue River member of the Fort Union Formation (Paleocene age). Coal, clinker, and sandstone beds comprise the aquifers in the Tongue River Member. Most streams are ephemeral and flow only as a result of precipitation. The only perennial surface-water flow in the study area is along short reaches downstream from springs. A mine plan for the area is not available; thus, the location of mine cuts, direction and rate of the mine expansion, and duration of mining are unknown. The mining of the Sawyer and Knoblock coal beds in the Tonge River Member would effect ground-water flow in the area. Declines in the potentiometric surface would be caused by dewatering where the mine pits intersect the water table. Wells and springs would be removed in the mine area; however, deeper aquifers are available as replacement sources of water. The chemical quality of the ground water would change after moving through the spoils. The change would be an increase in the concentration of dissolved solids. (USGS)

Montana

Characterization and evaluation of channel and hillslope erosion on the Zuni Indian Reservation, New Mexico, 1992-95

Like many areas of the southwestern United States, the Zuni Indian Reservation, New Mexico, has high rates of erosion, ranging from 95 to greater than 1,430 cubic meters per square kilometer per year. Erosion on the Zuni Indian Reservation includes channel erosion (arroyo incision and channel widening) and hillslope (sheetwash) erosion. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a 3-year (1992-95) study on channel erosion and hillslope erosion in the portion of the Rio Nutria watershed that drains entirely within the Zuni Indian Reservation. Results of the study can be used by the Zuni Tribe to develop a plan for watershed rehabilitation. Channel changes, gully growth, headcuts, and changes in dirt roads over time were examined to characterize and evaluate channel erosion in the Rio Nutria watershed. Channel cross-sectional changes included width, depth, width-to-depth ratio, area, and geometry. Relative rates of gully growth, headcuts, and changes in dirt roads over time were examined using aerial photographs. Results of resurveys conducted between 1992 and 1994 of 85 channel cross sections indicated aggradation of 72 percent of cross sections in three subbasins of the Rio Nutria watershed. Forty-eight percent of resurveyed cross sections showed an increase in cross-sectional area and erosion; nine of these are in tributaries. Some channels (43 percent) aggraded and increased in cross-sectional area. This increase in cross- sectional area is due mostly to widening. Channel widening is a more pervasive form of erosion than channel scour on the Zuni Indian Reservation. The tops of channels widened in 67 percent and the bottoms of channels widened in 44 percent of resurveyed cross sections. Narrow, deep triangular channels are more erosive than rectangular cross sections. Five land-cover types--three sites on mixed-grass pasture, two sites on sites on unchained pi?on and juniper, one site on sagebrush, one site on ponderosa pine, and two sites on chained pi?on and juniper--were each instrumented with sediment traps between 1992 and 1994 to measure hillslope erosion. Highest sediment yields were measured at chained areas and mixed- grass pasture. Annual yields from sites that were operated for more than a year were 11.7, 6.0, and 6.5 metric tons per square kilometer per year at a pi?on and juniper site, mixed-grass pasture site, and sagebrush site, respectively.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Riparian vegetation response amid variable climate conditions across the Upper Gila River watershed: Informing Tribal restoration priorities

Riparian systems across the Southwest United States are extremely valuable for the human and ecological communities that engage with them. However, they have experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century, including non-native vegetation expansion, vegetation die-offs, and increased fire activity. Vegetation management approaches, such as ecological restoration, may address some of these stressors as well as reduce the risk of future impacts. We apply remote sensing to inform restoration priorities along the upper Gila River within the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed. First, we develop a spatially and temporally explicit trend analysis across three observed climate periods (1985–1993, 1993–2014, 2014–2021) using the Landsat-derived indices to quantify changes in riparian vegetation conditions. These maps can be used to identify areas potentially more at risk for degradation. Second, we analyze changes in riparian vegetation within a climate framework to better understand trends and the potential effect of climate change. Vegetation greenness has largely increased throughout the watershed despite intensifying drought conditions across our study period, though areas within the lower watershed have shown increased stress and higher rates of wildfire and other disturbances over the past 5-years. Nevertheless, small-scale restoration activities appear to show improving vegetation conditions, suggesting efficacy of these restoration activities. Results from this study may be integrated with restoration objectives to develop a restoration plan that will help riparian vegetation communities adapt to change.

Arizona

On the trail of Black Scoters

The location of breeding and molting areas of some seaduck species is uncertain, and little is known of seaducks' migrational paths and of habitats used during migration, breeding, and molting. The black scoter is of special concern among the seaducks, because it is both the least common of the three scoter species and the least studied. The Continental Technical Team of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan's Sea Duck Joint Venture recommended that research on this species be conducted to learn more about black scoter movements and to delineate its breeding and molting areas. The team received funding to implant satellite transmitters on this species in Baie des Chaleurs and Restigouche River in New Brunswick, Canada, with the purpose of delineating populations and identifying habitat affinities for staging, breeding, and molting

New Brunswick, Quebec

Ground-water resources of the White River basin, Randolph County, Indiana

The two major aquifer systems in Randolph County, Indiana are sand and gravel and bedrock (limestone, dolomite, and shale of Silurian to Odovician age). The average thickness of the sands and gravels is 15 ft, and the aquifers are areally discontinuous. The bedrock aquifer underlies the entire study area and is estimated to be 150 ft in thickness. Six pumping plans simulated in the two systems by a five-layer, digital, ground-water-flow model provide data for an assessment of the water-yielding potential of the systems. The model indicates that as much as 2.5 million gallons per day can be pumped from the aquifers at some locations. This and similar rates of pumping may cause drawdown greater than 5 feet in 10 to 50 percent of the study area. About half the stream reaches were reduced in flow by more than 10 percent by the simulated pumping. However, reaches where discharge exceeded more than 2 cubic feet per second were not affected to this degree. (USGS)

Indiana

Hydraulic and hydrologic aspects of flood-plain planning

The valid incentives compelling occupation of the flood plain, up to and eve n into the stream channel, undoubtedly have contributed greatly to the development of the country. But the result has been a heritage of flood disaster, suffering, and enormous costs. Flood destruction awakened a consciousness toward reduction and elimination of flood hazards, originally manifested in the protection of existing developments. More recently, increased knowledge of the problem has shown the impracticability of permitting development that requires costly flood protect/on. The idea of flood zoning, or flood-plain planning, has received greater impetus as a result of this realization. This study shows how hydraulic and hydrologic data concerning the flood regimen of a stream can be used in appraising its flood potential and the risk inherent in occupation of its flood plain. The approach involves the study of flood magnitudes as recorded or computed; flood frequencies based1 on experience shown by many years of gaging-station record; use of existing or computed stagedischarge relations and flood profiles; and, where required, the preparation of flood-zone maps to show the areas inundated by floods of several magnitudes and frequencies. The planner can delineate areas subject to inundation by floods o* specific recurrence intervals for three conditions: (a) for the immediate vicinity of a gaging station; (b) for a gaged stream at a considerable distance from a gaging station; and (c) for an ungaged stream. The average depth for a flood of specific frequency can be estimated on the basis of simple measurements of area of drainage basin, width of channel, and slope of streambed. This simplified approach should be useful in the initial stages of flood-plain planning. Brief discussions are included on various types of flood hazards, the effects of urbanization on flood runoff, and zoning considerations.

Pennsylvania

Spatially detailed quantification of metal loading for decision making: Metal mass loading to American fork and Mary Ellen Gulch, Utah

Effective remediation requires an understanding of the relative contributions of metals from all sources in a catchment, and that understanding must be based on a spatially detailed quantification of metal loading. A traditional approach to quantifying metal loading has been to measure discharge and chemistry at a catchment outlet. This approach can quantify annual loading and the temporal changes in load, but does not provide the needed spatial detail to evaluate specific sources, which is needed to support remediation decisions. A catchment or mass-loading approach provides spatial detail by combining tracer-injection and synoptic-sampling methods to quantify loading. Examples of studies in American Fork, Utah, and its tributary Mary Ellen Gulch illustrate this different approach. The mass-loading study in American Fork treated Mary Ellen Gulch as a single inflow. From that point of view, Mary Ellen Gulch was one of the greatest sources of Fe, Mn, Zn, and colloidal Pb loads to American Fork. But when Mary Ellen Gulch was evaluated in a separate catchment study, the detailed locations of metal loading were identified, and the extent of metal attenuation upstream from the mouth of Mary Ellen Gulch was quantified. The net, instantaneous load measured at the mouth of Mary Ellen Gulch for remediation planning would greatly underestimate the contributions of principal sources within the catchment. Extending the detailed sampling downstream from Mary Ellen Gulch indicated the possibility of diffuse groundwater inflow from Mary Ellen Gulch to American Fork. Comparing loads for Mary Ellen Gulch in the two studies indicates that metal loads could be substantially underestimated for planning purposes without the detailed catchment approach for the low-flow conditions in these studies. A mass-loading approach provides both the needed quantification of metal loading and the spatial detail to guide remediation decisions that would be the most effective in the catchments.

Mine Water and the Environment

Hydraulic and hydrologic aspects of flood-plain planning

The valid incentives compelling occupation of the flood plain, up to and even into the stream channel, undoubtedly have contributed greatly to the development of the country. But the result has been a heritage of flood disaster, suffering, and enormous costs. Flood destruction awakened a consciousness toward reduction and elimination of flood hazards, originally manifested in the protection of existing developments. More recently, increased information and realization of the problem have shown the impracticability of permitting developments that require costly flood protection. The idea of flood zoning, or flood-plain planning, has received greater impetus as a result of such realization. This study shows how hydraulic and hydrologic data concerning the flood regimen of a stream can be used in appraising its flood potential and the risk inherent in occupation of its flood plain. The approach involves the study of flood magnitudes as recorded or computed; flood frequencies based on the experience shown by many years of gaging-station record; use of existing or computed stage-discharge relations and flood profiles; and, where required, the preparation of flood-zone maps to show the areas inundated by floods of several magnitudes and frequencies. Methods are outlined that will enable the planner to delineate areas subject to inundation by floods of specific recurrence intervals for three conditions; (1) for the immediate vicinity of a gaging station, (2) for a gaged stream at a considerable distance from a gaging station, and (3) for an ungaged stream. Curves have been developed from which the average depth for a flood of specific frequency can be estimated on the basis of the average depth for bankfull flow; this simplified approach should be very useful in the initial stages of flood-plain planning. Brief discussions are included on various types of flood hazards, the effects of urbanization on flood runoff, and zoning considerations.

Pennsylvania

Hydraulic and Geomorphic Assessment of the Merced River and Historic Bridges in Eastern Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California: Sacramento, California

The Merced River in the popular and picturesque eastern-most part of Yosemite Valley in Yosemite National Park, California, USA, has been extensively altered since the park was first conceived in 1864. Historical human trampling of streambanks has been suggested as the cause of substantial increases in stream width, and the construction of undersized stone bridges in the 1920s has been suggested as the major factor leading to an increase in overbank flooding due to deposition of bars and islands between the bridges. In response, the National Park Service at Yosemite National Park (YNP) requested a study of the hydraulic and geomorphic conditions affecting the most-heavily influenced part of the river, a 2.4-km reach in eastern Yosemite Valley extending from above the Tenaya Creek and Merced River confluence to below Housekeeping Bridge. As part of the study, present-day conditions were compared to historical conditions and several possible planning scenarios were investigated, including the removal of an elevated road berm and the removal of three undersized historic stone bridges identified by YNP as potential problems: Sugar Pine, Ahwahnee and Stoneman Bridges. This Open-File Report will be superseded at a later date by a Scientific Investigations Report. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, the USGS FaSTMECH (Flow and Sediment Transport with Morphological Evolution of Channels) model, within the USGS International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) model framework, was used to compare the scenarios over a range of discharges with annual exceedance probabilities of 50-, 20-, 10-, and 5- percent. A variety of topographic and hydraulic data sources were used to create the input conditions to the hydrodynamic model, including aerial LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging), ground-based LiDAR, total station survey data, and grain size data from pebble counts. A digitized version of a historical topographic map created by the USGS in 1919, combined with estimates of grain size, was used to simulate historical conditions, and the planning scenarios were developed by altering the present-day topography. Roughness was estimated independently of measured water-surface elevations by using the mapped grain-size data and the Keulegan relation of grain size to drag coefficient. The FaSTMECH hydrodynamic model was evaluated against measured water levels by using a 130.9 m 3 s -1 flow (approximately a 33-percent annual exceedance probability flood) with 36 water-surface elevations measured by YNP personnel on June 8, 2010. This evaluation run had a root mean square error of 0.21 m between the simulated- and observed water-surface elevations (less than 10 percent of depth), though the observed water-surface elevations had relatively high variation due to the strong diurnal stage changes over the course of the 4.4-hour collection period, during which discharge varied by about 15 percent. There are presently no velocity data with which to test the model. A geomorphic assessment was performed that consisted of an estimate of the magnitude and frequency of bedload and suspended-sediment transport at “Tenaya Bar”, an important gravel-cobble bar located near the upstream end of the study site that determines the amount of flow across the floodplain at the Sugar Pine – Ahwahnee bend. An analysis of select repeat cross-sections collected by YNP since the late 1980s was done to investigate changes in channel cross-sectional area near the Tenaya Bar site. The results of the FaSTMECH models indicate that the maximum velocities in the present-day channel within the study reach are associated with Stoneman and Sugar Pine Bridges, at close to 3.0 m s -1 for the 5-percent annual exceedance probability flood. The modeled maximum velocities at Ahwahnee Bridge are comparatively low, at between 1.5 and 2.0 m s -1 , most likely due to the bridge's orientation parallel to down-valley floodplain flows. The results of the FaSTMECH models for the bridge removal scenarios indicate a reduction in average velocity at the bridge sites for the range of flows by approximately 23-38 percent (Sugar Pine Bridge), 32-42 percent (Ahwahnee Bridge), and 33-39 percent (Stoneman Bridge), though a side channel of concern to YNP management did not appear to be substantially affected by the removal scenarios. In comparison to the historical data, the FaSTMECH results suggest that flows for present-day conditions do not inundate the floodplain until between the 50- and 20-percent annual exceedance probability flood, whereas historically, a large portion of the floodplain was inundated during the 50-percent annual exceedance probability flood. Modeled maximum velocities in the present-day channel commonly exceed 2.0 m s -1 , whereas with the historical scenario, modeled maximum in-channel velocities rarely exceeded 2.0 m s -1 . The geomorphic analysis of the magnitude-frequency of bedload and suspended-sediment transport suggests that at the important Tenaya Bar site, the majority of bed sediment is mobile during most snowmelt-dominated floods. In contrast to sediment transport capacity, the analysis of repeat cross-sections suggests that bedload sediment supply into the eastern Yosemite Valley may be quite different between rain-on-snow floods and snowmelt-dominated floods, potentially with most sediment supply occurring during rain-on-snow floods, such as the 1997 flood. In contrast, the magnitude-frequency analysis of bedload and suspended-sediment transport suggests that long-term bedload sediment transport is likely dominated by snowmelt floods, and suspended-sediment transport is relatively low compared to bedload transport. Obtaining measured velocity data throughout the study reach would aid in model calibration, and thus would improve confidence in model results. Improved confidence in the model velocity results would allow additional substantial analyses of reach-scale effects of the planning scenarios and would enable the development of geomorphic models to evaluate the long-term geomorphic responses of the site. In addition, the collection of watershed sediment-supply data, about which little is presently known, would give planners helpful tools to plan restoration scenarios for this nationally important river.

California

Conceptualization and simulation of runoff generation from rainfall for three basins in Thurston County, Washington

A method to conceptualize and simulate the generation of runoff from rainfall was applied to three small drainage basins in north-central Thurston County, Washington. Because the study basins face continued urban development, this method was developed to provide a technique for assessing the effects of alternative urban-development plans on runoff characteristics. A conceptual model of runoff generation and three numerical simulation models, called basin models, were constructed for the study basins. Hydrologic Simulation Program- FORTRAN was the program used to construct the basin models. The basin models were constructed using parameter values based on qualitative rainfall- runoff relations defined in the conceptual model. The features of the conceptual model, incorporated in the basin models, were assessed by calibration and evaluation of the basin models with observed streamflow data collected from March 1988 through March 1990. The simulation results from the basin models generally confirmed the study's conceptual model of runoff generation. Absolute differences between simulated and observed streamflows were less than 6 percent for total runoff volumes, equal to or less than 32 percent for daily mean discharges, less than 32 percent for storm runoff volumes, and less than 33 percent for peak discharges. Although the conceptual model adequately described runoff generation from rainfall, it did not adequately describe the actual flow paths from land segments to streams.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on Sage-grouse declines and redistribution

Multiple environmental stressors impact wildlife populations, but we often know little about their cumulative and combined influences on population outcomes. We generally know more about past effects than potential future impacts, and direct influences such as changes of habitat footprints than indirect, long-term responses in behavior, distribution, or abundance. Yet, an understanding of all these components is needed to plan for future landscapes that include human activities and wildlife. We developed a case study to assess how spatially explicit individual-based modeling could be used to evaluate future population outcomes of gradual landscape change from multiple stressors. For Greater Sage-grouse in southwest Wyoming, USA, we projected oil and gas development footprints and climate-induced vegetation changes 50 years into the future. Using a time-series of planned oil and gas development and predicted climate-induced changes in vegetation, we recalculated habitat selection maps to dynamically modify future habitat quantity, quality, and configuration. We simulated long-term Sage-grouse responses to habitat change by allowing individuals to adjust to shifts in habitat availability and quality. The use of spatially explicit individual-based modeling offered a useful means of evaluating delayed indirect impacts of landscape change on wildlife population outcomes. The inclusion of movement and demographic responses to oil and gas infrastructure resulted in substantive changes in distribution and abundance when cumulated over several decades and throughout the regional population. When combined, additive development and climate-induced vegetation changes reduced abundance by up to half of the original size. In our example, the consideration of only a single population stressor the final possible population size by as much as 50%. Multiple stressors and their cumulative impacts need to be broadly considered through space and time to avoid underestimating the impacts of multiple gradual changes and overestimating the ability of populations to withstand change.

Wyoming

An integrated hydrologic model to support the Central Platte Natural Resources District Groundwater Management Plan, central Nebraska

The groundwater and surface-water supply of the Central Platte Natural Resources District supports a large agricultural economy from the High Plains aquifer and Platte River, respectively. This study provided the Central Platte Natural Resources District with an advanced numerical modeling tool to assist with the update of their Groundwater Management Plan. An integrated hydrologic model, called the Central Platte Integrated Hydrologic Model, was constructed using the MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Model code with the Newton solver. This code integrates climate, landscape, surface water, and groundwater-flow processes in a fully coupled approach. Model framework included 163 rows; 327 columns; 2,640 feet cell sides; and 3 vertical layers. A predevelopment model simulated steady-state hydrologic conditions prior to April 30, 1895, and a development period model discretized into 610 stress periods simulated transient hydrologic conditions from May 1, 1895, to December 31, 2016, using 170 biannual stress periods from 1895 to 1980, and monthly stress periods from May 1, 1980, to December 31, 2016. Calibration of the Central Platte Integrated Hydrologic Model involved two phases: a manual adjustment of parameters, followed by the automated calibration completed using BeoPEST that was facilitated by the employment of the singular value decomposition-assist features of PEST that specified 50 super parameters assembled from the 435 adjustable parameters and Tikhonov regularization. The average absolute groundwater-level residuals for model layers one, two, and three were 6.1, 12.4, and 7.4 feet, respectively. Calibrated horizontal hydraulic conductivity was about 70, 32, and 35 feet per day for layers 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The largest development period inflow to groundwater was recharge from deep percolation past the root zone, averaging 1,122,257 acre-feet per year (2.7 inches per year), and the largest outflow was to irrigation wells, averaging 693,171 acre-feet per year (10.2 inches per year for the Central Platte Natural Resources District). Other substantial groundwater outflows included evapotranspiration and base flow. For the total development period, there was a net change in storage of −122,393 acre-feet per year (−0.3 inch per year). The calibrated Central Platte Integrated Hydrologic Model was used to simulate eight different potential future climate and irrigation pumping conditions from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2049. Simulated future groundwater levels within the Central Platte Natural Resources District varied significantly between scenarios and locally, from 13.8 feet below to 7.6 feet above baseline 1982 groundwater levels. Most areas exhibited groundwater-level declines for the drought scenarios and rises for the alternate irrigation scenarios. Changes in scenario groundwater levels correlated with the relations between farm net recharge and irrigation pumping. Linear “first order second moment” techniques indicated that the uncertainty in projected groundwater altitudes was reduced by 15.33 feet through model calibration.

Nebraska

Socioeconomic issues for the Bear River Watershed Conservation Land Area Protection Plan

The Bear River Watershed Conservation Area is located in the Bear River Watershed, a vast basin covering fourteen counties across three states. Located in Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho, the watershed spans roughly 7,500 squares miles: 1,500 squares miles in Wyoming; 2,700 squares miles in Idaho; and 3,300 squares miles in Utah (Utah Division of Water Resources, 2004). Three National Wildlife Refuges are currently contained within the boundary of the BRWCA: the Bear River Migratory Bird Refuge in Utah, the Bear Lake National Wildlife Refuge in Idaho, and the Cokeville Meadows National Wildlife Refuge in Wyoming. In 2010, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service conducted a Preliminary Project Proposal and identified the Bear River Watershed Conservation Area as having high-value wildlife habitat. This finding initiated the Land Protection Planning process, which is used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to study land conservation opportunities including adding lands to the National Wildlife Refuge System. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service proposes to include part of the Bear River Watershed Conservation Area in the Refuge System by acquiring up to 920,000 acres of conservation easements from willing landowners to maintain landscape integrity and habitat connectivity in the region. The analysis described in this report provides a profile of the social and economic conditions in the Bear River Watershed Conservation Area and addresses social and economic questions and concerns raised during public involvement in the Land Protection Planning process.

Wyoming;Utah;Idaho

Major active faults and seismicity in and near the Big Fork-Avon area, Missoula-Kalispell region, northwestern Montana

This is one of a series of environmental maps of a study area that overlies parts of Flathead, Lake, Missoula, and Powell Counties, northwestern Montana. The area extends from Big Fork, in Lake County, on the north to Avon, in Powell County, on the south, essentially as outline in figure 1. The environmental study was undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey in response to a request from the Regional Planning Association of Western Montana who believed that the data gathered would be of significant use to county land-use planner.s

Montana

Mount Rainier National Park

Natural Resource Condition Assessments (NRCAs) evaluate current conditions for a subset of natural resources and resource indicators in national parks. NRCAs also report on trends in resource condition (when possible), identify critical data gaps, and characterize a general level of confidence for study findings. The resources and indicators emphasized in a given project depend on the park’s resource setting, status of resource stewardship planning and science in identifying high-priority indicators, and availability of data and expertise to assess current conditions for a variety of potential study resources and indicators. Although the primary objective of NRCAs is to report on current conditions relative to logical forms of reference conditions and values, NRCAs also report on trends, when appropriate (i.e., when the underlying data and methods support such reporting), as well as influences on resource conditions. These influences may include past activities or conditions that provide a helpful context for understanding current conditions and present-day threats and stressors that are best interpreted at park, watershed, or landscape scales (though NRCAs do not report on condition status for land areas and natural resources beyond park boundaries). Intensive cause-andeffect analyses of threats and stressors, and development of detailed treatment options, are outside the scope of NRCAs. It is also important to note that NRCAs do not address resources that lack sufficient data for assessment. For Mount Rainier National Park, this includes most invertebrate species and many other animal species that are subject to significant stressors from climate change and other anthropogenic sources such as air pollutants and recreational use. In addition, we did not include an analysis of the physical hydrology associated with streams (such as riverine landforms, erosion and aggradation which is significant in MORA streams), due to a loss of staff expertise from the USGS-BRD staff conducting the work, and human disturbance landcover issues such as the effects of roads, trails, and other anthropogenic developments due to lack of funds.

Report

Connecting flood-related fluvial erosion and deposition with vulnerable downstream road-stream crossings

Fluvial erosion is increasingly responsible for infrastructure and building damages associated with floods as the intensity of extreme rainfalls hit rural and urban rivers in a variety of climate settings across the United States. Extreme floods in 2016 and 2018 caused widespread culvert blockages and road failures, including extensive damage along steep tributaries and ravines in the Marengo River, Wisconsin, watershed during 2016 and 2018. A study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Wisconsin Wetlands Association (WWA), Ashland County, and the Northwest Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (NWRPC) investigated the special concern of fluvial erosion hazards (FEHs) associated with gullying, streamside landslides, and the loss of wetland storage in headwaters. In 2019, a pilot study was begun to map and classify ephemeral and perennial streams and wetlands in terms of their sensitivity to FEHs. This study combined data from field-based rapid geomorphic assessments (RGAs) coupled with a stream network-wide geographic information system (GIS) approach for mapping stream segments, referred to as fluvial process zones (FPZ), sensitive to erosion, deposition, and channel change. The GIS approach used nationally available 10-meter (m) resolution topology and an extended stream network to map FPZs based on Strahler stream order, stream power, channel slope, presence of adjacent steep valley sides and headwater flats, and adjacent landform setting. Bankfull channel widths derived from RGA-based hydraulic geometry curves combined with drainage areas, an estimate of bankfull flow, and channel slope were used to calculate specific stream power for the FPZs. Lastly, the FPZs were characterized by their location within three major landform settings that affect erosion potential. The resulting vulnerability maps provided a screening framework to identify FPZs that are sensitive to incision, gullying and mass wasting along steep headwater ephemeral channels, as well as downstream perennial channels that have the potential for valley-side landslides, coarse sediment deposition, and channel change. Lastly, each FPZ was characterized in terms of hydrologic alteration associated with ditching. The vulnerability mapping products and rankings of sensitivity of FPZs will ultimately be used by Ashland County and their collaborators to prioritize natural flood management projects that mitigate FEHs, restore hydrology, and reconnect channels with adjacent wetlands and floodplains.

Wisconsin