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Dinehart, R.L., Culbertson, J.K., 1982, Sediment-discharge characteristics of the Toutle River following the Mount St. Helens eruption, [abs.]: in Proceedings from the Conference on Mount St. Helens— Effects on water resources: State of Washington Water Research Center, p. 149.
This publication summarizes the results of a Pellston Workshop sponsored by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), held 17-22 August 2002 in Fairmont, Montana, USA. The full technical proceedings of the workshop will be published separately by SET AC in 2003. Previous SETAC workshops have focused on sediment ecological risk assessment (ERA) (Dickson et al. 1987; Ingersoll et al. 1997) and porewater toxicity testing (Carr and Nipper 2003). Another recent workshop addressed the application of weight-of-evidence (WOE) methods in ERA (Burton et al. 2002). These previous workshops focused on how, when, and why ERAs are needed in sediment assessments. However, more focused discussion among scientists, environmental regulators, and environmental managers is now needed to build on this previous work. Specifically, additional guidance is needed on procedures that can be used to integrate the information derived from multiple chemical and biological lines of evidence (LOE). These LOE, which are developed through the application of different assessment tools, often include the use of chemically based sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) to evaluate sediment contamination and to help practitioners in sediment assessment and management formulate risk management decisions. This workshop focused on evaluation of the scientific foundations supporting different chemically based numeric SQGs and methods to improve the integration of SQGs into different sediment quality assessment frameworks that include information derived from multiple chemical and biological LOE.
This volume comprises the proceedings of a symposium on marine mammal survey assessment methods, which took place in Seattle, Washington, USA.
Estimates of migration rates and travel times of juvenile salmonids within index reaches of the Columbia River basin are collected through the Smolt Monitoring Program for use by the Fish Passage Center. With increased reliance upon travel time estimates in 1988 by the Fish Passage Center, this study was implemented to monitor the biological attributes of juvenile chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead trout 0.- mykiss used for the travel time estimates, The physiological ability of fish to respond to stress was assessed by measuring levels of plasma cortisol, glucose, and chloride before and after a stress-challenge test. Most mid-Columbia and Snake river groups responded normally to the stress challenge exhibiting an increase in plasma glucose and cortisol and a slight decrease in chloride. Fish trucked to release sites were more stressed than those released directly from the hatchery, but most still responded to the stress challenge test normally. An abnormal or extreme stress response occurred when there were deviations from preferred protocol, disease problems at hatcheries, or when fish were trucked over long periods (7h). The development of smoltification was evaluated by measuring gill Na+K+-ATPase, plasma thyroxine, purines, and body morphology. Most groups were similar at the hatcheries but differed as the migration to McNary Dam proceeded. Gill ATPase activity increased 2-3 fold during the first 20 days of migration, after which it changed little. Fish with longer in-river travel times appeared to be more smolted than those which were in the river for a shorter period of time. The prevalence of bacterial kidney disease (BKD) in spring chinook salmon was evaluated using the enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and fluorescent antibody technique (FAT). Prevalence of BKD in groups tested using the ELISA method was as high as 99% at some downstream locations. A review of indices is presented as a guide, to the development of an index of smolt condition and preliminary data are presented. An index could be used as a tool to synthesize information on fish condition to assist with management and evaluation of the Water Budget.
In 1998, the U.S. Geological Survey Biological Resources Division (USGS-BRD), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge (AMNWR), and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) began the Seabird Tissue Archival and Monitoring Project (STAMP) to collect and cryogenically bank tissues from seabirds in Alaska for future retrospective analysis of anthropogenic contaminants. The approach of STAMP was similar to that of the Alaska Marine Mammal Tissue Archival Project (AMMTAP). AMMTAP was started in 1987 by NIST and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as part of the Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Assessment Program sponsored by the Minerals Management Service. Presently sponsored by the USGS-BRD, AMMTAP continues its work as part of a larger national program, the Marine Mammal Health and Stranding Response Program. AMMTAP developed carefully designed sampling and specimen banking protocols. Since 1987, AMMTAP has collected tissues from marine mammals taken in Alaska Native subsistence hunts and has cryogenically banked these tissues at the NIST National Biomonitoring Specimen Bank (NBSB). Through its own analytical work and working in partnership with other researchers both within and outside Alaska, AMMTAP has helped to develop a substantial database on contaminants in Alaska marine mammals. In contrast, data and information is limited on contaminants in Alaska seabirds, which are similar to marine mammals in that they feed near the top of the food chain and have the potential for accumulating anthropogenic contaminants. During its early planning stages, STAMP managers identified the seabird egg as the first tissue of choice for study by the project. There is a relatively long history of using bird eggs for environmental monitoring and for investigating the health status of bird populations. Since 1998, protocols for collecting and processing eggs, and cryogenically banking egg samples have been developed by STAMP (see York et al. 2001). Eggs are being collected on an annual basis for several species at nesting colonies throughout Alaska. Aliquots of these egg samples are being analyzed on a regular basis for persistent organic pollutants and mercury. Results of this work have been published in scientific journals (Christopher et al. 2002) and in conference proceedings (Kucklick et al. 2002; Vander Pol et al. 2002a, 2002b). The intent of this report is to provide an up-to-date description of STAMP. The report contains the most recent egg collection inventory, analytical data, preliminary interpretations based on these data, and a discussion of possible future directions of the project.
Global biodiversity loss is proceeding at an accelerating pace (Newbold et al. 2015, 2016) in large part due to land use and, climate change, and associated spread of disease and non-native species (Hobbs et al. 2006, Williams and Jackson 2007, Ellis 2011, Radeloff et al. 2015). Over the last century, U.S. average temperature has increased 0.7–1.1°C, leading to an increased frost-free season, more frequent and intense heat waves, and increased frequency and intensity of winter storms; mean precipitation has increased, with increases in heavy downpours (Melillo et al. 2014). The dominant land uses in the U.S. are lands devoted to forest (671 million acres; 30%), pasture/range (614 million acres, 27%), and agriculture (408 million acres, 18%) (Economic Research Service 2011). Martinuzzi et al. (2015) projected changes in land use to the middle of the 21st century and found that at least 11% of the U.S. land cover (an area larger than Texas) was expected to change cover class (Figure 1). At the same time, mean temperature is expected to further increase 1.1–1.7°C by mid-century and 2.2–3.9°C by end-of-century (Melillo et al. 2014). In this age of unprecedented human-induced environmental change, understanding the relationships of species to the habitat and climatic conditions they experience is crucial to conservation and management. Improved understanding of relationships with habitat and climate will better inform management decisions designed to reduce crop depredation caused by blackbirds.
An investigation of the water resources of Salt Lake County, Utah, was undertaken by the Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey in July 1963. This investigation is a cooperative project financed equally by the State of Utah and the Federal Government in accordance with an agreement between the State Engineer and the Geological Survey. The Utah Water and Power Board, Utah Fish and Game Commission, Salt Lake County Water Conservancy District, Metropolitan Water District of Salt Lake City, Salt Lake County, Kennecott Copper Corporation, Utah Power and Light Company, Salt Lake City Chamber of Commerce, and the Central Utah Water Conservancy District. contributed funds to the State Engineer's office toward support of the project. The investigation encompasses the collection and interpretation of a large variety of climatologic, hydrologic, and geologic data in and near Salt Lake County. Utah Basic-Data Release No. 11 contains data collected through 1964. This release contains climatologic and surface-water data for the 1965 water year (October 1964 to September 1965) and ground-water data collected during the 1965 calendar year. Similar annual releases will contain data collected during the remainder of the investigation, and interpretive reports will be prepared as the investigation proceeds. Organizations that furnished data are acknowledged in station descriptions and footnotes to tables.
An investigation of the water resources of Salt Lake County, Utah, was undertaken by the Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey in July 1963. This investigation is a cooperative project financed equally by the State of Utah and the Federal Government in accordance with an agreement between the State Engineer and the Geological Survey. The Utah Water and Power Board, Utah Fish and Game Commission, Salt Lake County Water Conservancy District, Metropolitan Water District of Salt Lake City, Salt Lake County, Kennecott Copper Corporation, Utah Power and Light Company, Salt Lake City Chamber of Commerce, and the Central Utah Water Conservancy District contributed funds to the State Engineer's office toward support of the project. The investigation encompasses the collection and interpretation of a large variety of climatologic, hydrologic, and geologic data in and near Salt Lake County. Utah Basic-Data Releases 11 and 12 contain data collected through 1965. This release contains climatologic and surface-water data for the 1966 water year (October 1965 to September 1966) and groundwater data collected during the 1966 calendar year. Similar annual releases will contain data collected during the remainder of the investigation, and interpretive reports will be prepared as the investigation proceeds. Organizations that furnished data are acknowledged in station descriptions and footnotes to tables.
An investigation of the water resources of Salt Lake County, Utah, was undertaken by the Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey in July 1963. This investigation is a cooperative project financed chiefly by equal contributions of the State of Utah and the Federal Government in accordance with an agreement between the Division of Water Rights, Utah Department of Natural Resources, and the Geological Survey. The investigation was financed during the period covered by this report by the following organizations: Utah Division of Water Rights (formerly State Engineer), Utah Division of Water Resources (formerly Water and Power Board), Salt Lake County, Salt Lake County Water Conservancy District, Central Utah Water Conservancy District, Metropolitan Water District of Salt Lake City, City of Murray, Granger-Hunter Improvement District, Taylorsville-Bennion Improvement District, Holladay Water Company, Magna Water and Sewer District, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey. The investigation encompasses the collection and interpretation of a large variety of climatologic, hydrologic, and geologic data in and near Salt Lake County. Utah Basic-Data Releases 11-13 contain data collected through 1966. This release contains climatologic and surfacewater data for the 1967 water year (October 1966 to September 1967) and ground-water data collected during the 1967 calendar year. A similar annual release will contain data collected during the remainder of the investigation, and interpretive reports will be prepared as the investigation proceeds. Organizations that furnished data are acknowledged in station descriptions and footnotes to tables.
Unlike scientific literature pertaining to most other coal-bearing regions in the conterminous United States, this bibliography on the coal geology of the Gulf Coastal Plain is dominated by work from the late 20th century. Although coals of this region were mined commercially in the late 1800s and early 1900s, they were eclipsed by the production and use of oil and gas in the middle 1920s and were not mined again as a significant fuel source until the 1970s. As a result, the literature consists mainly of a relatively small number of pre-1920 contributions in state and federal reports, followed by a plethora of technical papers, symposia proceedings, field guides, theses, dissertations, and abstracts over the past 40 years. The purpose of this chapter is to record the present work used by U.S. Geological Survey personnel preparing the Gulf Coast Coal Resource Assessment and to furnish an introduction to the larger body of sedimentary, stratigraphic, paleontologic, geochemical, hydrologic, and mining literature that exists in the region. This bibliography is an update of an earlier compilation (Tewalt et al., 1990). Despite its length, it is not exhaustive. Nor is it restricted to papers that focus solely upon coals because an understanding of these coals is rooted in the general geologic literature of the Gulf Coastal Plain.
Chapter 2 focused on the environmental results of the ARP, presenting data from national monitoring networks on SO2 and NOx emissions, air quality, atmospheric deposition, surface water chemistry, and visibility. This chapter expands on this information by examining the most recent research into how ecosystems respond to acid deposition, especially the processes that control the recovery of ecosystems as acid deposition decreases. In Chapter 2, two general trends were discussed regarding the current recovery status of affected ecosystems: (1) these ecosystems are trending generally towards recovery, but improvements in ecosystem condition shown by surface water chemistry monitoring data thus far have been less than the improvements in deposition; and (2) ecosystem impacts and trends vary widely by geographic region, but the evidence of improvement is strongest and most evident in the Northeast. These trends are not uniform across the United States, however, and in some regions (e.g., central Appalachian Mountain region), trends in improved water quality are generally not evident. Despite the strong link in many areas between reduced emissions and reduced acidity of atmospheric deposition, the link is less clear between reduced acidity and recovery of the biological communities that live in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that have experienced deleterious effects from acid deposition. The recovery of these communities is proceeding at a slower pace than, for example, the improvements in stream and lake ANC would indicate. The goal of this chapter is to synthesize the science in a weightof-evidence manner to provide policy makers with tangible evidence and likely causative factors regarding ecosystem status and recovery patterns to date. This chapter serves as an update to the 2005 NAPAP RTC (NSTC, 2005), with an emphasis on scientific studies and monitoring since 2003, which was the last year for consideration of research results in the 2005 report. Several issues pertinent to ecosystem response to emission controls and acid deposition are receiving increasing attention in the scientific literature and will be discussed in this chapter, including the (1) observed delay in ecosystem recovery in the eastern United States, even with decreases in emissions and deposition over the past 30 years; (2) emerging ecosystem impacts of nitrogen deposition in the western United States; (3) the application of critical deposition loads as a tool for scientists to better inform air quality policies; (4) the role of changes in climate and the carbon cycle as factors that affect the response of ecosystems to acid deposition; and (5) the interaction of multiple pollutants in ecosystems. Throughout this chapter, the value of long-term environmental monitoring data in informing air quality policy will be highlighted, including the limitations of assessing the current status of some ecosystem indicators for which continuous, long-term data are lacking.
Enhanced reservoir connectivity generally requires maximizing the intersection between hydraulic fracture (HF) and preexisting underground natural fractures (NF), while having the hydraulic fracture continue to propagate across the natural fractures. Observations of downhole core samples suggest that these natural fractures are in fact veins filled with minerals such as calcite (Mighani et al., 2016). We study this interaction during the approach of a hydraulic fracture to a smooth saw-cut fracture under triaxial stress conditions. The specimen is Solnhofen limestone, a fine-grained (<5 µm grain), low permeability (<10 nD) carbonate. The differential stress (1-20 MPa) and inclination of the fault which determines the approach angle, θ (30, 60°) are the experimental variables. We conduct the experiments on both bare surface and gouge-filled fault surfaces. The gouge is a 1 mm thick crushed powder of Solnhofen limestone with <106 µm grain size. During the hydraulic fracture, acoustic emissions (AE), inferred slip velocity, axial stress and pore pressure are recorded at a 5 MHz sampling rate. The hydraulic fracture was able to cross the bare surface fault with small induced fault slip. The fault gouge increased the coefficient of friction significantly from 0.12 (bare, polished surface) to > 0.44 (gouged layer). However, the gouge-filled fault arrested the hydraulic fracture and generated a slip event with different characteristics: 1- The stress drop was larger while the generated AE signals had lower magnitude. 2- Slip velocity recorded by the vibrometer was of the same order of magnitude for the bare and gouge-filled faults, but the slip duration increased from 29 µsec for bare surface to ~2.5 msec (~90 times longer rise time) for the gouge-filled fault. The experiments suggest that the gouge-filled fault can accommodate much larger displacement while promoting slow slip on the fault which is harder to detect as AE signals. The observed long duration slip events are similar to the field observations of the long period and long duration (LPLD) events during the stimulation of clay-rich shale formations (Zoback et al., 2012). While the intrinsic low strength, high ductility, and unfavorably oriented natural fractures in shale formations are expected to reduce the occurrence of induced seismicity, our experiments suggest an additional mechanism for the observed LPLD events, i.e. the role of fault gouge. They also suggest that the microseismic detection techniques may under-predict the stimulated volume as the activation of natural gouge-filled fractures may proceed aseismically.
This chapter is concerned with GIS applications made to inland fisheries. These include fisheries in freshwater rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although these GIS applications have increased rapidly since the late 1980s, this area of fish production receives less attention than either aquaculture or marine fisheries. This is probably because inland fisheries are often practised in remote areas, at a semi-subsistence level, or are recreational in many developed countries, and data on most aspects of the fisheries are scattered, fragmented and frequently unsuited for use as inputs to GIS. The GIS-based inland fisheries work has concentrated on mapping the distribution and abundance of fish species and mapping and modelling habitats in rivers, reservoirs and lakes, and relating the two. Much of the material included in the chapter on inland fisheries comes from either Fisher and Rahel (2004) or from the series of symposium proceedings published by the Fishery-Aquatic GIS Research Group (Nishida and Caton, 2010).
Along the San Bernardino Valley, the Santa Ana River decreases in slope, increases in width, and deposits particles from boulders to sand as it loses transport capacity. Episodic rainfalls feed very large winter floods, but dry summer and fall periods lead to extensive dry alluvial reaches due to surface water infiltration into subsurface aquifers. Within one of these dry reaches, a small inset channel has developed to effectively convey year-round wastewater discharges. This flow creates a coarse bed substrate composed of gravel and cobble that is home for diatoms and algae, the diet for the Santa Ana Sucker, a threatened native fish. Field-based observations include: • Shear stresses in the inset channel are capable of transporting sand as bedload, but not gravel and cobble. Bedload measurements (at several locations and times under wastewater discharge conditions) indicate that about 90% of the bedload is sand. The median grain size of bedload samples is consistently in the 0.5–1-mm range with little longitudinal variability. • The upstream supply of sand decreases through time as winnowing proceeds in the downstream direction. Bedload transport rates increase in the downstream direction by an order of magnitude over just 7 km, despite the fact that water discharge decreases downstream due to infiltration (typically by 25–50% over the 7-km reach). • The location of the gravel-to-sand bed transition is variable from year to year and is related to the amount of time that has elapsed since the most recent upstream runoff event. These events supply new sediment to the reach and reset the winnowing process. • Direct observations of the inset channel following upstream runoff events revealed many instances of large areas of substantial sand deposition in the channel, in areas that were previously entirely gravel and cobble sizes. We propose a qualitative function to predict the bed substrate of the inset channel at any given time and location. A one-dimensional model of bedload transport and bed substrate in the study reach is being developed to quantify and test the predictive function. Preliminary results indicate that the winnowing process is quite sensitive to wastewater discharge levels. The calibrated model will be used to assess how treatment plant discharge scenarios might be used to strategically manage winnowing rates and the amount of gravel and cobble exposed on the bed in the reach.
Executive Summary Drainage for agricultural production over the past 150 years has been an integral component of human-driven change to Minnesota’s rural landscapes. Benefits of drainage Historically, poorly drained soils across much of the State would often remain saturated or flooded after spring snowmelt, preventing timely farm operations such as tilling and planting crops (Arneman, 1963). Installation of agricultural drainage, both surface ditches and subsurface drainage, accelerated transport of water off farm fields and imparted producers higher crop yields (Beauchamp, 1987; Stoner and others, 1993). Agricultural drainage offered many other benefits such as preventing crop drown out, aerating the soil profile for improved plant growth, limiting surface runoff and soil erosion, and allowing farmers better access to croplands (Fausey and others, 1987). Without agricultural drainage on much of Minnesota’s croplands, it would have been difficult to realize high enough crop yields to remain economically viable. Environmental concerns While drainage of Minnesota croplands provided the benefits mentioned above, several environmental concerns result. These include wetland loss, degradation of downstream water quality, and reduced [potential for] recharge. Early agricultural drainage efforts (pre-20th century) led to the disappearance of much of Minnesota’s natural wetlands. Increased focus on preventing or mitigating wetland loss over the last 50 years has helped curtail further losses, even as agricultural drainage proceeds. Prior to establishment of Minnesota statehood, wetlands accounted for more than 10 million acres in Minnesota, including prairie wetlands, peatlands, and forest wetlands that comprised approximately 19 percent of the total land area (Palmer, 1915; King, 1980). In 2018, only half of Minnesota’s pre-settlement wetlands remain, mostly in parts of the State that have not experienced widespread drainage, such as northern Minnesota. Water-quality monitoring has shown that agricultural drainage, in particular the practice of subsurface drainage, provides a direct flow path for nutrient (nitrogen and soluble phosphorus) losses to surface water resources. The negative consequences of agricultural drainage on surface water quality are well documented (for example, Dinnes and others, 2002; Kladivko and others, 2004; Richards and others, 2008; Rozemeijer and others, 2010; Schottler and others, 2013). Agricultural basins with a high percentage of agricultural drainage have been implicated as part of the cause of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia zone due to excessive nitrogen export (Goolsby and Battaglin, 2001; Randall and Mulla, 2001). The connection of hydrological effects of agricultural subsurface drainage on groundwater recharge and aquifers, on the other hand, has not been well-established. Agricultural subsurface drainage intercepts infiltrating water below croplands and directly discharges the water to nearby surface waters. However, the size of the water balance shift from drained water that would have evapotranspired or run off the land to drained water that would recharge underlying aquifers has been poorly characterized (Schuh, 2008). Drain Tiles and Groundwater Given the poor accounting of subsurface drainage effects on groundwater resources, the Minnesota Ground Water Association (MGWA) deemed it imperative that we document these effects so that groundwater resources in agricultural regions with substantial drainage can be effectively managed. This white paper documents the relations of drain tiles and groundwater resources and discusses the historical significance of agricultural drainage practices, the recognized positive benefits and potential negative consequences of agricultural drainage practices, and the gaps in understanding of the connections between agricultural drainage and groundwater resources. The major messages emerged from the findings of this white paper are: Complex history. Minnesota has a long history of agricultural drainage, spanning over 150 years. Agricultural drainage, and the eventual widespread usage of subsurface drainage, can be separated into at least four distinct periods of time: (a) early drainage to get water off the land, pre-20th century; (b) the boom and bust era (1900-1945); (c) postwar resurgence of subsurface drainage and early conservation efforts (1945-1960); and, (d) emergence of the environmental movement (1960 to present). The State’s regulatory framework that both allowed for drainage and controlled its usage during these periods is complicated and has been governed by a patchwork of both State and Federal statutes. Drainage Provinces. This white paper advances the concept of tile drainage provinces to aid in the discussion of regional differences in subsurface drainage and its overall effect on groundwater resources. Built upon the concept of groundwater provinces (Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 2001), three distinct tile drainage provinces were conceptualized: (1) the Southeastern Province; (2) the SouthCentral Province; and, (3) the Western Province. The distinct geology and the soils that developed in these regions have implications for each region’s subsurface drainage density and the potential implications for groundwater. Knowledge gaps. Several critical knowledge gaps are identified in this paper, creating opportunities for further research to improve our understanding for better managed water resources: Extent of drainage is unknown. Direct estimates of the extent of subsurface drainage do not exist in Minnesota. However, several indirect methods have been utilized to estimate subsurface drainage, from the field-scale to countylevel through the use of geographic information system (GIS) analysis and aerial photography. Based on a 2012 U.S. Geological Survey estimate of subsurface drainage extent (Nakagaki and Wieczorek, 2016), about 21% of the land area in Minnesota has some density of subsurface drainage. Effect of drainage on underlying aquifers is unknown. A basic understanding of unconfined and confined aquifers and their recharge is necessary to connect any hydrological effects from agricultural drainage to groundwater. The basic goal of subsurface drainage to efficiently drain saturated soils clearly alters the water balance in croplands. However, its overall effect on groundwater resources has been poorly characterized, and is in large part determined by the geology below drained areas and the arrangement of underlying aquifers. Water balance shifts. An improved understanding of historical water balance shifts from pre- to post-drainage periods is necessary to understand long-term implications on net groundwater recharge. Also, more direct field-scale studies and indirect modeling studies are needed to characterize water budgets for fields with subsurface drainage.
Alviso Slough area, South San Francisco Bay, California, is the site of an ongoing effort to restore former salt production ponds to intertidal habitat. As restoration proceeds and the levees surrounding the former salt production ponds are breached, the increase in tidal prism and associated sediment scour in the sloughs will remobilize legacy mercury deposits. A numerical model that is able to assess patterns of sediment transport, erosion, and the fate of remobilized sediments can improve mercury remobilization estimates and inform management actions. The goals of the current research are to (1) validate a 2D geomorphic model for Alviso Slough using bathymetric surveys and to (2) apply the validated model for Alviso Slough to investigate scenarios of sea level rise and levee breaching on the long-term scour in Alviso Slough. The 2D geomorphic numerical model applies the Delft3D Flexible Mesh (software by Deltares) that describes detailed interaction between hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and geomorphic change on a high resolution mesh. The morphodynamic modeling exercise shows that observed erosion and sedimentation patterns can be reproduced with skill. The associated suspended sediment concentrations are more difficult to reproduce. The model reveals tide residual flow patterns that are difficult to measure. These residual flow and transport patterns are the result of subtle, tide residual transport trends so that their effect becomes visible in multi-year simulations. Scenario model simulations show possible, illustrative impacts of sea level rise and potential management interventions (additional levee breaches).
We applied magnetotellurics (MT), diagnostic structural affiliations, soil gas flux, and fluid geochemistry to assist in identifying hidden, high-enthalpy geothermal systems in extensional regimes of the U.S. Great Basin. We are specifically looking for high-angle, low-resistivity zones and dilatant geologic structures that can carry fluids from magmatic or high-grade metamorphic conditions in the deep crust upward to exploitable depths, and to verify the nature of the deep sources through soil gas and fluid compositions. The project was motivated by prior MT transect coverage of western and central Nevada centered upon the Dixie Valley producing geothermal system where such favorable indicators were first recognized. The high-angle MT structures are taken to be fluidized fault zones connecting deep magmatic/metamorphic activity with the geothermal system, but the concept required verification by testing at other systems. The project was set up with a two-phased organization. Phase I was carried out at the McGinness Hills system, central Nevada, where Ormat Inc flagship power facility is located and a considerable amount of pre-existing data were available. Resistivity models along MT transects also showed a strong low-resistivity upwelling originating from interpreted deep crustal magmatic underplating. Controlling structures on production as indicated by Ormat data and our new mapping were favorable to dilatancy, comprising an accommodation zone between major normal faults of opposing dip. A 3D MT survey and inversion confirmed the existence of the steep low-resistivity zone dipping ESE toward the deep crust and placed N-S bounds upon the feature. In cooperation with Ormat personnel, we sampled well fluids from production intervals for He isotope composition. Elevated 3He was verified through mass spectrometry analysis confirming a magmatic connection with the producing system. High CO2 soil gas flux including possibly metamorphic 13C and 14C component was measured over the area of dilatant structures. Hence, the triad of indicators posed above was confirmed in Phase I. Subsequently, Phase II of the project proceeded in the greenfield Kumiva-Blackrock Desert district of northwestern Nevada to see if a new system could be identified. Transect MT data also showed a low-resistivity upwelling originating from interpreted deep crustal magmatic underplating. An MT survey of 131 sites was imaged through 3D inversion using an in-house, DOE-supported finite element algorithm. Low resistivity upwellings that warranted follow up study occur under the flanks of the Seven Troughs Range, under Kumiva Playa immediately west of the Blue Wing Mountains, and under northern Granite Springs Valley. Structural assessment of the project area by Co-I J. Faulds at UNR provided numerous favorable Quaternary fault settings, which were correlated to the MT upwelling structures. Soil CO2 gas flux anomalies generally were not large but did show correlation with resistivity upwelling structure and favorable geological structures. Isotope analyses showed presence of possible inorganic/metamorphic 13C but 14C concentrations did not exceed background values. We view the initial concept of a confluence of low-resistivity upwelling, favorably dilatant 3D geological structure, and elevated soil gas flux including 13C component to be supported by the further evidence of this project although the indicators in the Phase II study were more diffuse. Mass balance calculations based upon 3He R/Ra values indicates that the proportion of magmatic fluids in a producing system is fairly low, 10-15% by volume. We suggest that the diagnostic MT geophysical structures denote zones of concentrated extensional deformation that increases permeability, potentially enabling a circulating upper crustal geothermal system, while at the same time connecting telltale deep component signatures to the upper crust. The northern Granite Springs Valley structure is receiving followup stu
Predicting the consequences of alternative actions in terms of the objectives is central to decision making. Modeling in the broadest sense, from simple to complex and based on data or expert judgment, comprises the essential toolkit for making decision-relevant predictions. Gaps in knowledge and the resulting uncertainty can make predictive modeling challenging. Gathering information to address knowledge gaps, thereby reducing uncertainty, can improve predictions. However, within a decision analysis, the value of information gathering depends on the extent that reduced uncertainty will improve the decision’s outcome. Decision makers commonly confront the choice to proceed directly to a decision in the face of uncertainty or to delay and attempt to reduce the uncertainty significantly before making the decision. Value of information analysis can help make a smart choice. This chapter introduces the purpose, approaches, and tools for addressing knowledge gaps within decision analysis. The three case studies, which follow, illustrate some of the challenges and solutions encountered when addressing knowledge gaps within a decision analysis.