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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources

Quantifying long-term risks to sea otters from the 1989 'Exxon Valdez' oil spill: reply to Harwell & Gentile (2013)

Recovery of sea otter populations in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, has been delayed for more than 2 decades following the 1989 ‘Exxon Valdez’ oil spill. Harwell & Gentile (2013; Mar Ecol Prog Ser 488:291–296) question our conclusions in Bodkin et al. (2012; Mar Ecol Prog Ser 447:273-287) regarding adverse effects that oil lingering in the environment may have on sea otters. They agree that exposure may continue, but disagree that it constitutes a significant risk to sea otters. In Bodkin et al. (2012), we suggested that subtle effects of chronic exposure were the most reasonable explanation for delayed recovery of the sea otter population in areas of western PWS, where shorelines were most heavily oiled. Here, we provide additional information on the ecology of sea otters that clarifies why the toxicological effects of oral ingestion of oil do not reflect all effects of chronic exposure. The full range of energetic, behavioral, and toxicological concerns must be considered to appraise how chronic exposure to residual oil may constrain recovery of sea otter populations.

Alaska↗

Modeling structural mechanics of oyster reef self-organization including environmental constraints and community interactions

Self-organization is a process of establishing and reinforcing local structures through feedbacks between internal population dynamics and external factors. In reef-building systems, substrate is collectively engineered by individuals that also occupy it and compete for space. Reefs are constrained spatially by the physical environment, and by mortality, which reduces production but exposes substrate for recruits. Reef self-organization therefore depends on efficient balancing of production and occupancy of substrate. To examine this, we develop a three-dimensional individual-based model (IBM) of oyster reef mechanics. Shell substrate is grown by individuals as valves, accumulates at the reef level, and degrades following mortality. Single restoration events and subsequent dynamics are simulated for a case study in South Carolina (USA). Variability in model processes is included on recruitment, spatial environmental constraints, and predation, over multiple independent runs and five predator community scenarios. The main goal for this study is to summarize trends in dynamics that are robust across this uncertainty, and from these generate new hypotheses and predictions for future studies. Simulation results demonstrate three phases following restoration: initial transient dynamics with considerable shell loss, followed by growth and saturation of the live population, and then saturation of settlement habitat several years later. Over half of simulations recoup initial shell losses as populations grow, while others continue in decline. The balance between population density, substrate supporting the reef, and exposed surfaces for settlement is mediated by overall population size and size structure, presence of predators, and relative amounts of live individuals and intact dead shells. The efficiency of settlement substrate production improves through time as population size structure becomes more complex, and the population of dead valves accumulates.

Ecological Modelling↗

Techniques for restoring damaged Mojave and western Sonoran ecosystems, including those for threatened desert tortoises and Joshua trees

Ecological restoration has potential for contributing to conservation activities for threatened Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) and Joshua trees ( Yucca brevifolia , Y. jaegeriana ) and their broader ecosystems in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts. To be effective, restoration actions deployed strategically need to halt and reverse habitat degradation, replenish or enhance resources used by both species (e.g., large shrubs for protection of tortoises and nurse plants facilitating recruitment of Joshua tree seedlings), and ideally foster resilience during likely future environmental changes. We synthesized restoration techniques and their effectiveness in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts, provide estimated costs of candidate techniques, and anticipate future research needs for effective restoration in changing climates and environments. Over 50 published studies in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts demonstrate that restoration can improve soil features (e.g., biocrusts), increase cover of native perennial and annual plants, enhance native seed retention and seed banks, and reduce risk of fires to conserve mature shrubland habitat. We placed restoration techniques into three categories: restoration of site environments, revegetation, and management actions to limit further disturbance and encourage recovery. Within these categories, 11 major restoration techniques (and their variations) were evaluated by at least one published study and range from geomorphic (e.g., reestablishing natural topographic patterns) and abiotic structural treatments (e.g., vertical mulching) to active revegetation (e.g., outplanting, seeding). For example, 16 outplanting studies assessed performance of 46 species to begin identifying top-performing species, associated treatments (e.g., protection from herbivory) required to aid outplant survival, and potential for outplants to trigger formation of self-sustaining populations. Creosote bush (Larrea tridentata), a shrub that tortoises use for cover and that serves as a nurse plant for Joshua tree recruitment, achieved at least 50% survival in five of eight studies. Estimated costs for restoring desert habitats varied primarily with the severity of the disturbance, site factors including the diversity of vegetation that was lost, logistical factors such as accessibility of sites (influencing transportation costs), and the cost-effectiveness of the restoration techniques chosen. The review highlights six major research and adaptive management needs for advancing desert habitat restoration. These needs include: 1) continued development of innovative techniques and bet-hedging approaches to provide managers with “tool boxes” of candidate treatments to deploy in dynamic environmental and management conditions, 2) identifying how to optimize spatial deployment of limited restoration resources, 3) developing practical techniques for reducing non-native annual grasses across spatial scales, 4) improving linkages between habitat enhancements and short- and long-term indicators of tortoise usage and responses and Joshua tree population sustainability, 5) mitigating multiple, interacting stressors with cumulative impacts, and 6) integrating biotic (e.g., seeding) and abiotic (e.g., fencing, shade structures) treatments to complement each other at site and landscape scales in dynamic climates and environments. It is possible that bet-hedging approaches employing multiple treatment types (or phased treatments across years) and greater incorporation of abiotic treatments, which are less sensitive to timing of precipitation compared with biotic treatments, will become increasingly important under future climates projected to be drier and more variable. Existing research suggests that restoration can be deployed effectively even under adverse climatic conditions, but success requires identifying suitable techniques tailored to dynamic environments.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Sonora↗

Reduced population variance in strontium isotope values informs domesticated turkey use at Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, USA

Traditionally strontium isotopes (87Sr/86Sr) have been used as a sourcing tool in numerous archaeological artifact classes. The research presented here demonstrates that 87Sr/86Srbioapatite ratios also can be used at a population level to investigate the presence of domesticated animals and methods of management. The proposed methodology combines ecology, isotope geochemistry, and behavioral ecology to assess the presence and nature of turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) domestication. This case study utilizes 87Sr/86Srbioapatite ratios from teeth and bones of archaeological turkey, deer (Odocoileus sp.), lagomorph (Lepus sp. and Sylvilagus sp.), and prairie-dog (Cynomys sp.) from Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, U.S.A. (ca. A.D. 800 – 1250). Wild deer and turkey from the southwestern U.S.A. have much larger home ranges and dispersal behaviors (measured in kilometers) when compared to lagomorphs and prairie dogs (measured in meters). Hunted deer and wild turkey from archaeological contexts at Chaco Canyon are expected to have a higher variance in their 87Sr/86Srbioapatite ratios, when compared to small range taxa (lagomorphs and prairie dogs). Contrary to this expectation, 87Sr/86Srbioapatite values of turkey bones from Chacoan assemblages have a much lower variance than deer and are similar to that of smaller mammals. The sampled turkey values show variability most similar to lagomorphs and prairie dogs, suggesting the turkeys from Chaco Canyon were consuming a uniform diet and/or were constrained within a limited home range, indicating at least proto-domestication. The population approach has wide applicability for evaluating the presence and nature of domestication when combined with paleoecology and behavioral ecology in a variety of animals and environments.

New Mexico↗

Landscape capability models as a tool to predict fine-scale forest bird occupancy and abundance

Context Species-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning. Objectives We tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird species representative of spruce-fir, mixed conifer-hardwood, and riparian and wooded wetland macrohabitats. Methods We compiled point count data sets used for biological inventory, species monitoring, and field studies across the northeastern United States to create an independent validation data set. Our validation explicitly accounted for underestimation in validation data using joint distance and time removal sampling. Results Blackpoll warbler ( Setophaga striata ), wood thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ), and Louisiana ( Parkesia motacilla ) and northern waterthrush ( P. noveboracensis ) models were validated as predicting variation in abundance, although this varied from not biologically meaningful (1%) to strongly meaningful (59%). We verified all seven species models [including ovenbird ( Seiurus aurocapilla ), blackburnian ( Setophaga fusca ) and cerulean warbler ( Setophaga cerulea )], as all were positively related to occupancy data. Conclusions LC models represent a useful tool for conservation planning owing to their predictive ability over a regional extent. As improved remote-sensed data become available, LC layers are updated, which will improve predictions.

Landscape Ecology↗

Estimating millet production for famine early warning: An application of crop simulation modelling using satellite and ground-based data in Burkina Faso

Early warning of impending poor crop harvests in highly variable environments can allow policy makers the time they need to take appropriate action to ameliorate the effects of regional food shortages on vulnerable rural and urban populations. Crop production estimates for the current season can be obtained using crop simulation models and remotely sensed estimates of rainfall in real time, embedded in a geographic information system that allows simple analysis of simulation results. A prototype yield estimation system was developed for the thirty provinces of Burkina Faso. It is based on CERES-Millet, a crop simulation model of the growth and development of millet ( Pennisetum spp.). The prototype was used to estimate millet production in contrasting seasons and to derive production anomaly estimates for the 1986 season. Provincial yields simulated halfway through the growing season were generally within 15% of their final (end-of-season) values. Although more work is required to produce an operational early warning system of reasonable credibility, the methodology has considerable potential for providing timely estimates of regional production of the major food crops in countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗

Genomic signatures of thermal adaptation are associated with clinal shifts of life history in a broadly distributed frog

Temperature is a critical driver of ectotherm life-history strategies, whereby a warmer environment is associated with increased growth, reduced longevity and accelerated senescence. Increasing evidence indicates that thermal adaptation may underlie such life-history shifts in wild populations. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and copy number variants (CNVs) can help uncover the molecular mechanisms of temperature-driven variation in growth, longevity and senescence. However, our understanding of these mechanisms is still limited, which reduces our ability to predict the response of non-model ectotherms to global temperature change. In this study, we examined the potential role of thermal adaptation in clinal shifts of life-history traits (i.e. life span, senescence rate and recruitment) in the Columbia spotted frog Rana luteiventris along a broad temperature gradient in the western United States. We took advantage of extensive capture–recapture datasets of 20,033 marked individuals from eight populations surveyed annually for 14–18 years to examine how mean annual temperature and precipitation influenced demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, life span, senescence rate, recruitment and population growth). After showing that temperature was the main climatic predictor influencing demography, we used RAD-seq data (50,829 SNPs and 6,599 putative CNVs) generated for 352 individuals from 31 breeding sites to identify the genomic signatures of thermal adaptation. Our results showed that temperature was negatively associated with annual adult survival and reproductive life span and positively associated with senescence rate. By contrast, recruitment increased with temperature, promoting the long-term viability of most populations. These temperature-dependent demographic changes were associated with strong genomic signatures of thermal adaptation. We identified 148 SNP candidates associated with temperature including three SNPs located within protein-coding genes regulating resistance to cold and hypoxia, immunity and reproduction in ranids. We also identified 39 CNV candidates (including within 38 transposable elements) for which normalized read depth was associated with temperature. Our study indicates that both SNPs and structural variants are associated with temperature and could eventually be found to play a functional role in clinal shifts in senescence rate and life-history strategies in R. luteiventris . These results highlight the potential role of different sources of molecular variation in the response of ectotherms to environmental temperature variation in the context of global warming.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

Miocene−Pleistocene deformation of the Saddle Mountains: Implications for seismic hazard in central Washington, USA

The Yakima fold province, located in the backarc of the Cascadia subduction zone, is a region of active strain accumulation and deformation distributed across a series of fault-cored folds. The geodetic network in central Washington has been used to interpret large-scale N-S shortening and westward-increasing strain; however, geodetic data are unable to resolve shortening rates across individual structures in this low-strain-rate environment. Resolving fault geometries, slip rates, and timing of faulting in the Yakima fold province is critically important to seismic hazard assessment for nearby infrastructure and population centers. The Saddle Mountains anticline is one of the most prominent Yakima folds. It is unique within the Yakima fold province in that the syntectonic strata of the Ringold Formation are preserved and provide a record of deformation and drainage reorganization. Here, we present new stratigraphic columns, U-Pb zircon tephra ages, U-series caliche ages, and geophysical modeling that constrain two line-balanced and retrodeformed cross sections. These new constraints indicate that the Saddle Mountains anticline has accommodated 1.0−1.3 km of N-S shortening since 10 Ma, that shortening increases westward along the anticline, and that the average slip rate has increased 6-fold since 6.8 Ma. Provenance analysis suggests that the source terrane for the Ringold Formation was similar to that of the modern Snake River Plain. Using new slip rates and structural constraints, we calculate the strain accumulation time, interpretable as a recurrence interval, for earthquakes on the Saddle Mountains fault and find that large-magnitude earthquakes could rupture along the Saddle Mountains fault every 2−11 k.y.

Washington↗

New approaches to wildlife health

Recent environmental change and biodiversity loss have modified ecosystems, altering disease dynamics. For wildlife health, this trend has translated into increased potential for disease transmission and reduced capacity to overcome significant population-level impacts, which may place species at risk of extinction. Thus, current approaches to wildlife health focus not on the absence of disease but rather on the concept of health promotion. That is, wildlife populations will be more resilient to disease if they have the basic requirements for survival, as well as functioning ecosystems, within an enabling socio-economic environment. In this context, animal health programmes must adapt to design and implement wildlife health programmes that bridge knowledge gaps and fully integrate conservation goals. This article proposes new pathways and additions to the animal health management toolbox, including new approaches to surveillance and information management, partnerships and new wildlife health management practices. Solely because of risks to domesticated animals and human health, the traditional approach to disease surveillance in wild animals has now been replaced by a drive to recognise the intrinsic value of wildlife and the extended benefits of actively pursuing ecosystem health and associated life-sustaining ecosystem services. In this context, it is paramount to transition to holistic health programmes that embrace One Health as a pathway to set the health of all on equal footing.

Scientific and Technical Review↗

Atmospheric wet deposition of trace elements to a suburban environment, Reston, Virginia, USA

Wet deposition from a suburban area in Reston, Virginia was collected during 1998 and analyzed to assess the anion and trace-element concentrations and depositions. Suburban Reston, approximately 26 km west of Washington, DC, is densely populated and heavily developed. Wet deposition was collected bi-weekly in an automated collector using trace-element clean sampling and analytical techniques. The annual volume-weighted concentrations of As, Cd, and Pb were similar to those previously reported for a remote site on Catoctin Mt., Maryland (70 km northwest), which indicated a regional signal for these elements. The concentrations and depositions of Cu and Zn at the suburban site were nearly double those at remote sites because of the influence of local vehicular traffic. The 1998 average annual wet deposition (μg m −2 yr −1 ) was calculated for Al (52,000), As (94), Cd (54), Cr (160), Cu (700), Fe (23,000), Mn (2000), Ni (240), Pb (440), V (430), and Zn (4100). The average annual wet deposition (meq m −2 yr −1 ) was calculated for H + (74), Cl − (8.5), NO 3 − (33), and SO 4 2− (70). Analysis of digested total trace-element concentrations in a subset of samples showed that the refractory elements in suburban precipitation comprised a larger portion of the total deposition of trace elements than in remote areas.

Virginia↗

Limitations of captive breeding in endangered species recovery

The use of captive breeding in species recovery has grown enormously in recent years, but without a concurrent growth in appreciation of its limitations. Problems with (1) establishing self-sufficient captive populations, (2) poor success in reintroductions, (3) high costs, (4) domestication, (5) preemption of other recovery techniques, (6) disease outbreaks, and (7) maintaining administrative continuity have all been significant. The technique has often been invoked prematurely and should not normally be employed before a careful field evaluation of costs and benefits of all conservation alternatives has been accomplished and a determination made that captive breeding is essential for species survival. Merely demonstrating that a species’ population is declining or has fallen below what may be a minimum viable size does not constitute enough analysis to justify captive breeding as a recovery measure. Captive breeding should be viewed as a last resort in species recovery and not a prophylactic or long-term solution because of the inexorable genetic and phenotypic changes that occur in captive environments. Captive breeding can play a crucial role in recovery of some species for which effective alternatives are unavailable in the short term. However, it should not displace habitat and ecosystem protection nor should it be invoked in the absence of comprehensive efforts to maintain or restore populations in wild habitats. Zoological institutions with captive breeding programs should operate under carefully defined conditions of disease prevention and genetic/behavioral management. More important, these institutions should help preserve biodiversity through their capacities for public education, professional training, research, and support of in situ conservation efforts.

Conservation Biology↗

Beliefs and attitudes toward lethal management of deer in Cuyahoga Valley National Park

We used the theory of reasoned action to help understand attitudes and beliefs about lethal management of deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Cuyahoga Valley National Park (CVNP), Ohio. We used a mail-back survey to collect data from Ohio residents in the surrounding 9-county area. Two strata were defined: residents <10 km from CVNP (near n = 369) and residents =10 km from CVNP (far n = 312). Respondents indicated that lethal control of deer was acceptable (near 71%??4.7%, far 62%??5.5%) and taking no action to reduce deer populations was unacceptable (near 75%??4.5%, far 72%??5.1%). Beliefs about outcomes of lethal control and evaluation of those outcomes proved to be strong predictors of the acceptability of lethal control of deer in CVNP. Lethal control was more acceptable if it was done to prevent severe consequences for humans (e.g., spread of disease, car collisions) or the natural environment (e.g., maintain a healthy deer herd) than to prevent negative aesthetic impacts or personal property damage. Results from the study can be used to assist managers at CVNP as they make decisions regarding alternatives for deer management in the park and to inform others managing abundant deer populations of socially relevant impacts of management actions.

Conference Paper↗

Status of native stream fishes within selected protected areas of Niobrara River in western Nebraska

Lotic systems within the Great Plains are characterized by highly fluctuating conditions through both space and time. Fishes inhabiting these systems have adopted specific life-history strategies to survive in such environments; however, anthropogenic disturbance to prairie streams has resulted in declines and extirpation of many native stream fishes. Terrestrial protected areas (i.e., parks and reserves) are designated to support native flora and fauna and, it is assumed, to provide protection to native fishes. We assessed the presence and relative abundance of stream fish populations within protected areas along the Niobrara River in western Nebraska based on data collected during 1979, 1989, 2008, and 2011. The spatial extent of protection, landscape changes resulting in degraded physiochemical parameters, and introduced species may reduce the effectiveness of these terrestrial protected areas in protecting native fishes in Great Plains stream environments.

Great Plains Research↗

An evaluation of noninvasive sampling techniques for Malayan sun bears

Traditional mark–recapture studies to estimate abundance and trends of Malayan sun bear ( Helarctos malayanus ) populations are impeded by logistics of live-trapping wild individuals. The development of noninvasive sampling techniques for monitoring sun bear populations is therefore crucial for targeted conservation action. Sun bears have short fur, and conventional hair-snagging devices are ineffective. Moreover, scats are rapidly decomposed by the warm, humid environment, as well as by invertebrates. In combination with camera-sampling, we tested 2 designs of hair traps ( n = 45) in situ at Tabin Wildlife Reserve in Sabah, Malaysia, during April–October 2017, to obtain hair samples from wild sun bears. We also deployed 4 types of hair traps in rainforest enclosures with captive sun bears to evaluate hair-capture success and the effects of weathering, lure, and adhesive on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification success. Wild adult male sun bears displayed back-rubbing behavior at hair traps and 6 individuals were identified based on unique chest marks. We collected 30 hair samples from wild sun bears, including 15 chest mark images of 6 individuals over 1,260 trap-nights. We detected adult males at hair traps more frequently than females and subadults. We obtained 39 hair samples in the captive trials. Extracted DNA from hair roots successfully amplified with mitochondrial (wild bears: 95%; captive bears: 97%) and microsatellite primers (wild bears: 100%; captive bears 87%). Adhesive and lure type did not affect PCR amplification, but weathering reduced amplification of microsatellite loci. This study is the first successful attempt to obtain genetic samples from wild sun bears using inexpensive, readily available materials such as duct tape, polybutyl glue, and locally sourced lures. The quality of genetic material from these genetic samples should be suitable for studies of population size and gene flow.

Sabah↗

Reconnaissance of contaminants in selected wastewater-treatment-plant effluent and stormwater runoff entering the Columbia River, Columbia River Basin, Washington and Oregon, 2008-10

Toxic contamination is a significant concern in the Columbia River Basin in Washington and Oregon. To help water managers and policy makers in decision making about future sampling efforts and toxic-reduction activities, a reconnaissance was done to assess contaminant concentrations directly contributed to the Columbia River through wastewater-treatment-plant (WWTP) effluent and stormwater runoff from adjacent urban environments and to evaluate instantaneous loadings to the Columbia River Basin from these inputs. Nine cities were selected in Oregon and Washington to provide diversity in physical setting, climate characteristics, and population density&mdash;Wenatchee, Richland, Umatilla, The Dalles, Hood River, Portland, Vancouver, St. Helens, and Longview. Samples were collected from a WWTP in each city and analyzed for anthropogenic organic compounds, pharmaceuticals, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDEs [brominated flame-retardants]), organochlorine or legacy compounds, currently used pesticides, mercury, and estrogenicity. Of the 210 compounds analyzed in the WWTP-effluent samples, 112 (53 percent) were detected, and the detection rate for most compound classes was greater than 80 percent. Despite the differences in location, population, treatment type, and plant size, detection frequencies were similar for many of the compounds detected among the WWTPs. By contrast, the occurrence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was sporadic, and PCBs were detected at only three WWTPs. The stormwater-runoff samples were analyzed for a slightly different set of contaminants, with the focus on those expected to be related to road and land runoff&mdash;PCBs, PBDEs, organochlorine compounds, PAHs, currently used pesticides, trace elements, mercury, and oil and grease. A complex mixture of compounds was detected in stormwater runoff, with detections of 114 (58 percent) of the 195 compounds analyzed. The detection patterns and concentrations measured in the stormwater-runoff samples, however, were more heterogeneous than in the WWTP-effluent samples. This reflects differences in various factors, including suspended-sediment concentrations and known contamination sources present in some watersheds. Trace elements and PAHs, which are related to automobiles and impervious surfaces, were the most widespread compound classes detected in stormwater runoff, a typical finding in stormwater runoff in urban areas. With a better understanding of the presence of these contaminants in the environment, future work can focus on developing research to characterize the effects of these contaminants on aquatic life and prioritize toxic-reduction efforts for the Columbia River Basin.

Washington;Oregon↗

Egg size scales negatively with system size in a periodic fish species

Optimal egg size theory implies that female organisms balance between fecundity and individual offspring investment according to their environment. Past interspecific studies suggest that fishes in large marine systems generally produce smaller eggs than those in small freshwater systems. We tested whether intraspecific egg size variation reflected a similar pattern by comparing egg size among yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) populations inhabiting a range of system sizes. In 2018, 2019, and 2023, we collected yellow perch egg samples from 12 locations in systems ranging in surface area from 37 to 5,390,492 ha. First, we found that egg diameter significantly increased with maternal total length in five of eight individually tested populations. After accounting for these maternal effects, we found a significant interaction, where females inhabiting larger lakes, such as the main basins of Lakes Erie and Michigan, produced smaller eggs than those in smaller inland lakes, and the greatest differences were demonstrated among females of greater total length. This egg size variation in the largest females is consistent with interspecific egg size comparisons between marine and freshwater fishes. However, by examining a single species across vastly different environments, we were able to support theoretical expectations that maternal investment in offspring should vary with environmental conditions controlling early-life resource acquisition and competition.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Environmental systems and management activities on the Kennedy Space Center, Merritt Island, Florida: results of a modeling workshop

In the early 1960's, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began purchasing 140,000 acres on Merritt Island, Florida, in order to develop a center for space exploration. Most of this land was acquired to provide a safety and security buffer around NASA facilities. NASA, as the managing agency for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), is responsible for preventing or controlling environmental pollution from the Federal facilities and activities at the Space Center and is committed to use all practicable means to protect and enhance the quality of the surrounding environment. The Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge was established in 1963 when management authority for undeveloped lands at KSC was transferred to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In addition to manage for 11 Federally-listed threatened and endangered species and other resident and migratory fish and wildlife populations, the Refuge has comanagement responsibility for 19,000 acres of mosquito control impoundments and 2,500 acres of citrus groves. The Canaveral National Seashore was developed in 1975 when management of a portion of the coastal lands was transferred from NASA to the National Park Service. This multiagency jurisdiction on Merritt Island has resulted in a complex management environment. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted May 21-25, 1984, at the Kennedy Space Center to: (1) enhance communication among the agencies with management responsibilities on Merritt Island; (2) integrate available information concerning the development, management, and ecology of Merritt Island; and (3) identify key research and monitoring needs associated with the management and use of the island's resources. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a model that would simulate primary management and use activities on Merritt Island and their effects on upland, impoundment, and estuarine vegetation and associated wildlife. The simulation model is composed of four connected submodels. The Uplands submodel calculates changes in acres and structural components of vegetation communities resulting from succession, fire, facilities development, and shuttle launch depositions, as well as the quantity and quality of surface runoff and aquifer input to an impoundment and an estuary. The Impoundment submodel next determines water quality and quantity and changes in vegetation resulting from water level manipulation and prescribed burning. The Estuary submodel than determines water quality parameters and acres of seagrass beds. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates habitat suitability indices for key species of interest, based on vegetation conditions in the uplands and impoundments and on several hydrologic parameters. The model represents a hypothetical management unit with 2,500 acres of uplands, a 600-acre impoundment, and a 1,500-acre section of estuary. Two management scenarios were run to analyze model behavior. The scenarios differ in the frequency of shuttle launches and prescribed burning, the extent of facilities development, the amount of land disposed waste material applied, and the nature and timing of impoundment water level control. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. Open communication occurs among the Federal, State, and local agencies involved with activities on Merritt Island and the agencies have a cooperative working relationship. The workshop provided an opportunity for all of these agencies to meet at one time and have focused discussions on the key environmental and multiagency resource management issues. The workshop framework helped to integrate information and assumptions from a number of disciplines and agencies. This integration occurred in the computer simulation model and among workshop participants as submodel linkages were developed and scenario results discussed. A number of research needs were identified at the workshop during the model building and testing exercises and associated discussions. These needs were based on the informed judgement of researchers and managers familiar with Merritt Island or similar areas, rather than on a comprehensive literature review of sensitivity analysis of the preliminary model developed at the workshop. Some of the needs can be addressed by interpreting the results of completed studies from similar geographic areas as they relate to Merritt Island, while other will require additional research studies on Merritt Island. Major research needs associated with the Upland submodel include behavior of the near-surface aquifer, factors limiting slash pine regeneration, frequency and effects of natural fire on various cover types, cumulative effects of shuttle launches, and fate in upland soils of nitrogen and phosphorous from land applied waste material. Key Impoundment submodel needs include documentation of vegetation changes in response to altered water depth, salinity, and nutrient concentrations and better specification of the functional characteristics of impoundments as chemical filters. Important information gaps identified in the Estuary submodel include a more complete analysis of factors contributing to phytoplankton abundance, evaluation of sources of turbidity other than phytoplankton, and identification and quantification of factors limiting seagrass distribution. Primary research needs associated with the Wildlife submodel include a survey of breeding habitat, production data, and harvest data for mottled ducks; data on the emigration and immigration of juvenile mullet (and other transient fish) in the impoundment; the contribution of various seagrasses to habitat requirements of sea trout; and the effects of dissolved oxygen on survival of juvenile sea trout. Ideally, the modeling workshop process is iterative in nature. Periods between workshops are used for research, data collection, and model refinement. Each workshop integrates information collected since the last workshop and produces a more credible model that is more useful in evaluating management alternatives. Participants felt that continued application of this process would help provide ongoing integration and communication among agencies and would allow each agency's planning and management activities to be viewed within the context of an overall assessment.

Report↗

The macroecology of sustainability

The discipline of sustainability science has emerged in response to concerns of natural and social scientists, policymakers, and lay people about whether the Earth can continue to support human population growth and economic prosperity. Yet, sustainability science has developed largely independently from and with little reference to key ecological principles that govern life on Earth. A macroecological perspective highlights three principles that should be integral to sustainability science: 1) physical conservation laws govern the flows of energy and materials between human systems and the environment, 2) smaller systems are connected by these flows to larger systems in which they are embedded, and 3) global constraints ultimately limit flows at smaller scales. Over the past few decades, decreasing per capita rates of consumption of petroleum, phosphate, agricultural land, fresh water, fish, and wood indicate that the growing human population has surpassed the capacity of the Earth to supply enough of these essential resources to sustain even the current population and level of socioeconomic development.

PLoS Biology↗