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Linking geology and health sciences to assess childhood lead poisoning from artisanal gold mining in Nigeria

Background: In 2010, Médecins Sans Frontières discovered a lead poisoning outbreak linked to artisanal gold processing in northwestern Nigeria. The outbreak has killed approximately 400 young children and affected thousands more. Objectives: Our aim was to undertake an interdisciplinary geological- and health-science assessment to clarify lead sources and exposure pathways, identify additional toxicants of concern and populations at risk, and examine potential for similar lead poisoning globally. Methods: We applied diverse analytical methods to ore samples, soil and sweep samples from villages and family compounds, and plant foodstuff samples. Results: Natural weathering of lead-rich gold ores before mining formed abundant, highly gastric-bioaccessible lead carbonates. The same fingerprint of lead minerals found in all sample types confirms that ore processing caused extreme contamination, with up to 185,000 ppm lead in soils/sweep samples and up to 145 ppm lead in plant foodstuffs. Incidental ingestion of soils via hand-to-mouth transmission and of dusts cleared from the respiratory tract is the dominant exposure pathway. Consumption of water and foodstuffs contaminated by the processing is likely lesser, but these are still significant exposure pathways. Although young children suffered the most immediate and severe consequences, results indicate that older children, adult workers, pregnant women, and breastfed infants are also at risk for lead poisoning. Mercury, arsenic, manganese, antimony, and crystalline silica exposures pose additional health threats. Conclusions: Results inform ongoing efforts in Nigeria to assess lead contamination and poisoning, treat victims, mitigate exposures, and remediate contamination. Ore deposit geology, pre-mining weathering, and burgeoning artisanal mining may combine to cause similar lead poisoning disasters elsewhere globally.

Environmental Health Perspectives

The surface elevation table: marker horizon method for measuring wetland accretion and elevation dynamics

Tidal wetlands are highly sensitive to processes that affect their elevation relative to sea level. The surface elevation table–marker horizon (SET–MH) method has been used to successfully measure these processes, including sediment accretion, changes in relative elevation, and shallow soil processes (subsidence and expansion due to root production). The SET–MH method is capable of measuring changes at very high resolution (±millimeters) and has been used worldwide both in natural wetlands and under experimental conditions. Marker horizons are typically deployed using feldspar over 50- by 50-cm plots, with replicate plots at each sampling location. Plots are sampled using a liquid N 2 cryocorer that freezes a small sample, allowing the handling and measurement of soft and easily compressed soils with minimal compaction. The SET instrument is a portable device that is attached to a permanent benchmark to make high-precision measurements of wetland surface elevation. The SET instrument has evolved substantially in recent decades, and the current rod SET (RSET) is widely used. For the RSET, a 15-mm-diameter stainless steel rod is pounded into the ground until substantial resistance is achieved to establish a benchmark. The SET instrument is attached to the benchmark and leveled such that it reoccupies the same reference plane in space, and pins lowered from the instrument repeatedly measure the same point on the soil surface. Changes in the height of the lowered pins reflect changes in the soil surface. Permanent or temporary platforms provide access to SET and MH locations without disturbing the wetland surface.

Book chapter

Selected Geochemical Data for Modeling Near-Surface Processes in Mineral Systems

The database herein was initiated, designed, and populated to collect and integrate geochemical, geologic, and mineral deposit data in an organized manner to facilitate geoenvironmental mineral deposit modeling. The Microsoft Access database contains data on a variety of mineral deposit types that have variable environmental effects when exposed at the ground surface by mining or natural processes. The data tables describe quantitative and qualitative geochemical analyses determined by 134 analytical laboratory and field methods for over 11,000 heavy-mineral concentrate, rock, sediment, soil, vegetation, and water samples. The database also provides geographic information on geology, climate, ecoregion, and site contamination levels for over 3,000 field sites in North America.

Data Series

Bedrock morphology and structure, upper Santa Cruz Basin, south-central Arizona, with transient electromagnetic survey data

The upper Santa Cruz Basin is an important groundwater basin containing the regional aquifer for the city of Nogales, Arizona. This report provides data and interpretations of data aimed at better understanding the bedrock morphology and structure of the upper Santa Cruz Basin study area which encompasses the Rio Rico and Nogales 1:24,000-scale U.S. Geological Survey quadrangles. Data used in this report include the Arizona Aeromagnetic and Gravity Maps and Data referred to here as the 1996 Patagonia Aeromagnetic survey, Bouguer gravity anomaly data, and conductivity-depth transforms (CDTs) from the 1998 Santa Cruz transient electromagnetic survey (whose data are included in appendixes 1 and 2 of this report). Analyses based on magnetic gradients worked well to identify the range-front faults along the Mt. Benedict horst block, the location of possibly fault-controlled canyons to the west of Mt. Benedict, the edges of buried lava flows, and numerous other concealed faults and contacts. Applying the 1996 Patagonia aeromagnetic survey data using the horizontal gradient method produced results that were most closely correlated with the observed geology. The 1996 Patagonia aeromagnetic survey was used to estimate depth to bedrock in the upper Santa Cruz Basin study area. Three different depth estimation methods were applied to the data: Euler deconvolution, horizontal gradient magnitude, and analytic signal. The final depth to bedrock map was produced by choosing the maximum depth from each of the three methods at a given location and combining all maximum depths. In locations of rocks with a known reversed natural remanent magnetic field, gravity based depth estimates from Gettings and Houser (1997) were used. The depth to bedrock map was supported by modeling aeromagnetic anomaly data along six profiles. These cross sectional models demonstrated that by using the depth to bedrock map generated in this study, known and concealed faults, measured and estimated magnetic susceptibilities of rocks found in the study area, and estimated natural remanent magnetic intensities and directions, reasonable geologic models can be built. This indicates that the depth to bedrock map is reason-able and geologically possible. Finally, CDTs derived from the 1998 Santa Cruz Basin transient electromagnetic survey were used to help identify basin structure and some physical properties of the basin fill in the study area. The CDTs also helped to confirm depth to bedrock estimates in the Santa Cruz Basin, in particular a region of elevated bedrock in the area of Potrero Canyon, and a deep basin in the location of the Arizona State Highway 82 microbasin. The CDTs identified many concealed faults in the study area and possibly indicate deep water-saturated clay-rich sediments in the west-central portion of the study area. These sediments grade to more sand-rich saturated sediments to the south with relatively thick, possibly unsaturated, sediments at the surface. Also, the CDTs may indicate deep saturated clay-rich sediments in the Highway 82 microbasin and in the Mount Benedict horst block from Proto Canyon south to the international border.

Arizona

Sediment mobility and river corridor assessment for a 140-kilometer segment of the main-stem Klamath River below Iron Gate Dam, California

This river corridor assessment documents sediment mobility and river response to flood disturbance along a 140-kilometer segment of the main-stem Klamath River below Iron Gate Dam, California. Field and remote sensing methods were used to assess fundamental indicators of active sediment transport and river response to a combination of natural runoff events and reservoir releases during the study period from 2005 to 2019. Discharge measurements at two gaged sites and bed-material samples at two ungaged sites provided direct and indirect evidence of mobile bed conditions, scour and fill, and surface flushing of fine sediment. Available remote-sensing datasets collected in 2005, 2009, 2010, and 2016 were used to determine sediment storage, flood inundation boundaries, and provide indirect evidence of flood-induced scour. These datasets validate channel-maintenance flows defined by Shea and others (2016). During the study period, flows greater than or equal to 6,030 cubic feet per second mobilized the substrate, caused localized scour, and flushed fine sediment from bar surfaces. Flows greater than or equal to 10,400 cubic feet per second stripped vegetation from bars and floodplains and produced deeper scour. Flood disturbance within the study reach is produced by the combined effect of natural flows and reservoir releases, which resulted in mobile bed conditions during the study period. Periodic scour and substrate disturbance are considered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to be integral for managing disease-induced mortality of juvenile and adult salmonids. Substrate conditions conducive to parasites that host infectious diseases, particularly Ceratonova shasta, occur periodically. Additional studies are required to determine whether disease prevalence can be mitigated by well-timed reservoir releases. Study results are useful for interpreting linkages among physical and biological processes and for evaluating the effectiveness of flow management targeted to improve river bed conditions for endangered salmonid populations.

California

Methods of analysis by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory-Determination of low-level silver by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry

Increased awareness of the quality of water in the United States has led to the development of a method for determining low levels (0.2-5.0 microg/L) of silver in water samples. Use of graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry provides a sensitive, precise, and accurate method for determining low-level silver in samples of low ionic-strength water, precipitation water, and natural water. The minimum detection limit determined for low-level silver is 0.2 microg/L. Precision data were collected on natural-water samples and SRWS (Standard Reference Water Samples). The overall percent relative standard deviation for natural-water samples with silver concentrations more than 0.2 microg/L was less than 40 percent throughout the analytical range. For the SRWS with concentrations more than 0.2 microg/L, the overall percent relative standard deviation was less than 25 percent throughout the analytical range. The accuracy of the results was determined by spiking 6 natural-water samples with different known concentrations of the silver standard. The recoveries ranged from 61 to 119 percent at the 0.5-microg/L spike level. At the 1.25-microg/L spike level, the recoveries ranged from 92 to 106 percent. For the high spike level at 3.0 microg/L, the recoveries ranged from 65 to 113 percent. The measured concentrations of silver obtained from known samples were within the Branch of Quality Assurance accepted limits of 1 1/2 standard deviations on the basis of the SRWS program for Inter-Laboratory studies.

Open-File Report

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model accurately simulated streamflow at four of six uncalibrated sites within the basin. Overall, there was good agreement between simulated and measured seasonal and annual volumes throughout the basin for calibration and validation sites. The calibration period ranged from 0.2 to 20.8 percent difference, and the validation period ranged from 0.0 to 19.5 percent difference across all seasons and total annual runoff. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model tended to underestimate lower streamflows compared to the observed streamflow values. This is an indication that the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling model needs more detailed groundwater and storage information to properly model the low-flow conditions in the Cedar River Basin.

Iowa

Surface adsorption of Cs137 ions on quartz crystals

Adsorption tests were made on four large synthetic and three natural quartz crystals to see if surface defects might be detected by subsequent autoradiography techniques. The adsorbent used was radioactive Cs137 in a solution of Cs 137Cl. Natural quartz crystals adsorbed more cesium than the synthetic crystals. Certain surface defects were made evident by this method, but twinning features could not be detected.

Trace Elements Memorandum

Monkeypox virus in animals: Current knowledge of viral transmission and pathogenesis in wild animal reservoirs and captive animal models

Mpox, formerly called monkeypox, is now the most serious orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infection in humans. This zoonotic disease has been gradually re-emerging in humans with an increasing frequency of cases found in endemic areas, as well as an escalating frequency and size of epidemics outside of endemic areas in Africa. Currently, the largest known mpox epidemic is spreading throughout the world, with over 85,650 cases to date, mostly in Europe and North America. These increased endemic cases and epidemics are likely driven primarily by decreasing global immunity to OPXVs, along with other possible causes. The current unprecedented global outbreak of mpox has demonstrated higher numbers of human cases and greater human-to-human transmission than previously documented, necessitating an urgent need to better understand this disease in humans and animals. Monkeypox virus (MPXV) infections in animals, both naturally occurring and experimental, have provided critical information about the routes of transmission; the viral pathogenicity factors; the methods of control, such as vaccination and antivirals; the disease ecology in reservoir host species; and the conservation impacts on wildlife species. This review briefly described the epidemiology and transmission of MPXV between animals and humans and summarizes past studies on the ecology of MPXV in wild animals and experimental studies in captive animal models, with a focus on how animal infections have informed knowledge concerning various aspects of this pathogen. Knowledge gaps were highlighted in areas where future research, both in captive and free-ranging animals, could inform efforts to understand and control this disease in both humans and animals.

Viruses

An automated and universal method for measuring mean grain size from a digital image of sediment

Existing methods for estimating mean grain size of sediment in an image require either complicated sequences of image processing (filtering, edge detection, segmentation, etc.) or statistical procedures involving calibration. We present a new approach which uses Fourier methods to calculate grain size directly from the image without requiring calibration. Based on analysis of over 450 images, we found the accuracy to be within approximately 16% across the full range from silt to pebbles. Accuracy is comparable to, or better than, existing digital methods. The new method, in conjunction with recent advances in technology for taking appropriate images of sediment in a range of natural environments, promises to revolutionize the logistics and speed at which grain-size data may be obtained from the field.

Conference Paper

Field application methods for recovery of the selective lampricide, 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol

Colorimetric methods are described for the detection of residues of the selective lampricide, 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM), in natural waters and fish tissues. Solvent extraction and anion exchange were used to separate and concentrate the lampricide, and to reduce high background colors which often interfere with the determinations. Data from the Pentwater and Muskegon Rivers (Michigan) showed an exponential rate of disappearance of TFM from the water immediately after treatments to eradicate larvae of the sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ). No TFM was recovered from fish exposed in their natural environment to low levels of the lampricide during treatment; residues were recovered, however, from fish exposed to high concentrations in the laboratory.

Conference Paper

Reassessment of mercury in surface water in the Adirondack region, New York

A study in 1970 established a natural background concentration of mercury in surface water in the Adirondack region of New York. In 1974, new methods of sample preservation and analysis were used in determining concentrations of mercury of samples of water from the same surface-water sites sampled in 1970-71. Concentrations of mercury for all sites in the 1974 study were virtually the same as those obtained in 1970-71, less than 0.5 microgram per litre, which is the detection limit of the methods.

New York

A framework for estimating economic impacts of ecological restoration

Ecological restoration projects are designed to improve natural and cultural resources. Spending on restoration also stimulates economic impacts to the restoration economy through the creation or support of jobs and business activity. This paper presents accessible methods for quantifying the economic impacts supported by restoration spending and is written to be a guide and toolbox for an interdisciplinary audience of restoration practitioners and economists. Measuring the economic impacts of restoration can be challenging due to lacking or limited data. The complex, collaborative, and heterogeneous nature of restoration projects can make it difficult to clearly track costs, contributing to limited availability and inconsistency in restoration cost data. And business classification systems, such as the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS), do not include restoration-sectors that consistently describe the patterns of restoration spending. The aims of this paper are to (1) provide restoration practitioners and program managers with a clear understanding of the application of economic impact analyses to restoration, (2) provide a framework for collecting project cost data for economic impact analyses, and (3) provide modeling best practices and an example application of the framework.

Environmental Management

Quantification of aquifer properties with surface nuclear magnetic resonance in the Platte River valley, central Nebraska, using a novel inversion method

Surface nuclear magnetic resonance, a noninvasive geophysical method, measures a signal directly related to the amount of water in the subsurface. This allows for low-cost quantitative estimates of hydraulic parameters. In practice, however, additional factors influence the signal, complicating interpretation. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Central Platte Natural Resources District, evaluated whether hydraulic parameters derived from surface nuclear magnetic resonance data could provide valuable input into groundwater models used for evaluating water-management practices. Two calibration sites in Dawson County, Nebraska, were chosen based on previous detailed hydrogeologic and geophysical investigations. At both sites, surface nuclear magnetic resonance data were collected, and derived parameters were compared with results from four constant-discharge aquifer tests previously conducted at those same sites. Additionally, borehole electromagnetic-induction flowmeter data were analyzed as a less-expensive surrogate for traditional aquifer tests. Building on recent work, a novel surface nuclear magnetic resonance modeling and inversion method was developed that incorporates electrical conductivity and effects due to magnetic-field inhomogeneities, both of which can have a substantial impact on the data. After comparing surface nuclear magnetic resonance inversions at the two calibration sites, the nuclear magnetic-resonance-derived parameters were compared with previously performed aquifer tests in the Central Platte Natural Resources District. This comparison served as a blind test for the developed method. The nuclear magnetic-resonance-derived aquifer parameters were in agreement with results of aquifer tests where the environmental noise allowed data collection and the aquifer test zones overlapped with the surface nuclear magnetic resonance testing. In some cases, the previously performed aquifer tests were not designed fully to characterize the aquifer, and the surface nuclear magnetic resonance was able to provide missing data. In favorable locations, surface nuclear magnetic resonance is able to provide valuable noninvasive information about aquifer parameters and should be a useful tool for groundwater managers in Nebraska.

Nebraska

Sampling design for groundwater solute transport: Tests of methods and analysis of Cape Cod tracer test data

Tests of a one-dimensional sampling design methodology on measurements of bromide concentration collected during the natural gradient tracer test conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, demonstrate its efficacy for field studies of solute transport in groundwater and the utility of one-dimensional analysis. The methodology was applied to design of sparse two-dimensional networks of fully screened wells typical of those often used in engineering practice. In one-dimensional analysis, designs consist of the downstream distances to rows of wells oriented perpendicular to the groundwater flow direction and the timing of sampling to be carried out on each row. The power of a sampling design is measured by its effectiveness in simultaneously meeting objectives of model discrimination, parameter estimation, and cost minimization. One-dimensional models of solute transport, differing in processes affecting the solute and assumptions about the structure of the flow field, were considered for description of tracer cloud migration. When fitting each model using nonlinear regression, additive and multiplicative error forms were allowed for the residuals which consist of both random and model errors. The one-dimensional single-layer model of a nonreactive solute with multiplicative error was judged to be the best of those tested. Results show the efficacy of the methodology in designing sparse but powerful sampling networks. Designs that sample five rows of wells at five or fewer times in any given row performed as well for model discrimination as the full set of samples taken up to eight times in a given row from as many as 89 rows. Also, designs for parameter estimation judged to be good by the methodology were as effective in reducing the variance of parameter estimates as arbitrary designs with many more samples. Results further showed that estimates of velocity and longitudinal dispersivity in one-dimensional models based on data from only five rows of fully screened wells each sampled five or fewer times were practically equivalent to values determined from moments analysis of the complete three-dimensional set of 29,285 samples taken during 16 sampling times.

Water Resources Research

Design and function of the Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System (ABISS) for remote sensing of lake and seabed environments

Lake and seabed environments are home to fisheries and other biota that are important to ecosystems and economies, yet these environments and the species that use them are difficult to accurately assess and monitor. Traditional benthic survey techniques, like bottom trawling used by the U.S. Geological Survey, are limited by substrate constraints, poor spatial resolution and precision, and operational depth limits, hindering accurate assessment of benthic species and habitats. In response to these limitations, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System, a camera system integrated into underwater vehicles, to capture high-resolution images of the lakebed. The system uses color and stereo cameras to collect imagery, which can be analyzed using computational methods to detect organisms and (or) characterize habitat features, such as geologic substrate types. The system has been integrated into autonomous underwater vehicles and into an underwater housing used by self-contained underwater breathing apparatus (SCUBA) divers. Although the engineering of the system was motivated by the need for data collection in the Great Lakes, it has potential to collect high quality data in any aqueous setting with sufficient water clarity and safe operating conditions. The Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System can operate across diverse depths and light conditions to map and quantify ecological patterns that were difficult or impossible to assess using traditional methods. The Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System offers the potential for accurate and precise monitoring and assessment of native benthic biota, invasive species, and habitat, potentially providing natural resource managers with improved information to support decision making about benthic resource management.

Great Lakes

Organic-carbon sequestration in soil/sediment of the Mississippi River deltaic plain — Data; landscape distribution, storage, and inventory; accumulation rates; and recent loss, including a post-Katrina preliminary analysis

Soil/sediment of the Mississippi River deltaic plain (MRDP) in southeastern Louisiana is rich in organic carbon (OC). The MRDP contains about 2 percent of all OC in the surface meter of soil/sediment in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). Environments within the MRDP differ in soil/sediment organic carbon (SOC) accumulation rate, storage, and inventory. The focus of this study was twofold: (1) develop a database for OC and bulk density for MRDP soil/sediment; and (2) estimate SOC storage, inventory, and accumulation rates for the dominant environments (brackish, intermediate, and fresh marsh; natural levee; distributary; backswamp; and swamp) in the MRDP. Comparative studies were conducted to determine which field and laboratory methods result in the most accurate and reproducible bulk-density values for each marsh environment. Sampling methods included push-core, vibracore, peat borer, and Hargis1 sampler. Bulk-density data for cores taken by the "short push-core method" proved to be more internally consistent than data for samples collected by other methods. Laboratory methods to estimate OC concentration and inorganic-constituent concentration included mass spectrometry, coulometry, and loss-on-ignition. For the sampled MRDP environments, these methods were comparable. SOC storage was calculated for each core with adequate OC and bulk-density data. SOC inventory was calculated using core-specific data from this study and available published and unpublished pedon data linked to SSURGO2 map units. Sample age was estimated using isotopic cesium ( 37 Cs), lead ( 210 Pb), and carbon ( 14 C), elemental Pb, palynomorphs, other stratigraphic markers, and written history. SOC accumulation rates were estimated for each core with adequate age data. Cesium-137 profiles for marsh soil/sediment are the least ambiguous. Levee and distributary 137 Cs profiles show the effects of intermittent allochthonous input and/or sediment resuspension. Cesium-137 and 210 Pb data gave the most consistent and interpretable information for age estimations of soil/sediment deposited during the 1900s. For several cores, isotopic 14 C and 137 Cs data allowed the 1963-64 nuclear weapons testing (NWT) peak-activity datum to be placed within a few-centimeter depth interval. In some cores, a too old 14 C age (when compared to 137 Cs and microstratigraphic-marker data) is the probable result of old carbon bound to clay minerals incorporated into the organic soil/sediment. Elemental Pb coupled with Pb source-function data allowed age estimation for soil/sediment that accumulated during the late 1920s through the 1980s. Exotic pollen (for example, Vigna unguiculata and Alternanthera philoxeroides ) and other microstratigraphic indicators (for example, carbon spherules) allowed age estimations for marsh soil/sediment deposited during the settlement of New Orleans (1717-20) through the early 1900s. For this study, MRDP distributary and swamp environments were each represented by only one core, backswamp environment by two cores, all other environments by three or more cores. MRDP core data for the surface meter soil/sediment indicate that (1) coastal marshes, abandoned distributaries, and swamps have regional SOC-storage values >16 kg m -2 ; (2) swamps and abandoned distributaries have the highest SOC storage values (swamp, 44.8 kg m -2 ; abandoned distributary, 50.9 kg m -2 ); (3) fresh-to-brackish marsh environments have the second highest site-specific SOC-storage values; and (4) site-specific marsh SOC storage values decrease as the salinity of the environment increases (fresh-marsh, 36.2 kg m -2 ; intermediate marsh, 26.2 kg m -2 ; brackish marsh, 21.5 kg m -2 ). This inverse relation between salinity and SOC storage is opposite the regional systematic increase in SOC storage with increasing salinity that is evident when SOC storage is mapped by linking pedon data to SSURGO map units (fresh marsh, 47 kg m -2 ; intermediate marsh, 67 kg m -2 ; brackish marsh, 75 kg m -2 ; and salt marsh, 80 kg m -2 ). MRDP core data for this study also indicate that levees and backswamp have regional SOC-storage values <16 kg m -2 . Group-mean SOC storage for cores from these environments are natural levee (17.0 kg m -2 ) and backswamp (14.1 kg m -2 ). An estimate for the SOC inventory in the surface meter of soil/sediment in the MRDP can be made using the SSURGO mapped portion of the coastal-marsh vegetative-type map (13,236 km 2 , land-only area) published by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries and U.S. Geological Survey (1997). This area has a SOC inventory (surface meter) of 677 Tg (slightly more than 2 percent of the 30,289 Tg SOC inventory for the MRB). The MRDP (6,180 km2, land-only area) has an estimated SOC inventory of 397 Tg. Most of the MRDP is located within the SSURGO mapped coastal marshlands. The entire MRDP, including water, has an area of about 10,800 km 2 . Using the ratio of total MRDP area to SSURGO mapped MRDP area as an adjustment, the MRDP SOC inventory is estimated at 694 Tg. This larger estimate of 694 Tg for the SOC inventory is probably more realistic, because it is reasonable to assume that the marsh sediments overlain by shallow water have comparable SOC storage to that of the adjacent land areas. MRDP core data for this study indicate that there is some variability in long-term SOC mass-accumulation rates for centuries and millennia and that this variability may indicate important geologic changes or changes in land use. However, the consistency of the range in rates of SOC accumulation through time suggests a remarkable degree of marsh sustainability throughout the Holocene, including the recent period of significant marsh modification/channelization for human use. One example of marsh sustainability is its present ability to function as a SOC sink even with Louisiana's large-scale coastal land loss during the last several decades. With coastal-marsh restoration efforts, this sink potential will increase. Looking to the future, a total of 1,101 g m -2 yr -1 SOC is projected to be lost from all of coastal Louisiana (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) subprovinces 1-4; not just the MRDP) through coastal erosion from year 2000 to 2050. This translates to a projected SOC-loss rate of about 0.20 percent per year. The recent Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which devastated the Louisiana coast during late August and late September 2005, transformed about 259 km 2 (100 mi 2 ) of marsh to open water (U.S. Geological Survey, 2005). To the extent that some or all of this land loss is permanent, this result equates to a SOC loss of about 15 Tg. This estimate is based on the year-2000 15,153-km 2 land area for the LCA study area that includes LCA subprovince 4. Using the year-2000 land area, the LCA study area had an estimated SOC inventory of 858 Tg. The estimated 15 Tg SOC loss attributable to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita is 1.7 percent of the year-2000 LCA inventory and 2.3 percent of the year-2000 MRDP inventory. If this SOC loss is included in the projection for the year 2050, then the MRDP would either remain a source with a net SOC loss of 3 Tg or become a weak sink with a net SOC gain of 4 Tg. These estimates are lower bounds for potential SOC flux because they are only for the surface meter of landmass.

Louisiana

Structural Equation Modeling: Applications in ecological and evolutionary biology

This book presents an introduction to the methodology of structural equation modeling, illustrates its use, and goes on to argue that it has revolutionary implications for the study of natural systems. A major theme of this book is that we have, up to this point, attempted to study systems primarily using methods (such as the univariate model) that were designed only for considering individual processes. Understanding systems requires the capacity to examine simultaneous influences and responses. Structural equation modeling (SEM) has such capabilities. It also possesses many other traits that add strength to its utility as a means of making scientific progress. In light of the capabilities of SEM, it can be argued that much of ecological theory is currently locked in an immature state that impairs its relevance. It is further argued that the principles of SEM are capable of leading to the development and evaluation of multivariate theories of the sort vitally needed for the conservation of natural systems. Supplementary information can be found at the authors website, http://www.jamesbgrace.com/ . • Details why multivariate analyses should be used to study ecological systems • Exposes unappreciated weakness in many current popular analyses • Emphasizes the future methodological developments needed to advance our understanding of ecological systems.

Book