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USGS2025

Coexistence beyond disciplinary silos: Five dimensions of analysis for more convivial human-predator interactions

Understanding human-predator interactions has been a central goal of conservation for decades, yet many previous efforts have approached this challenge from disciplinary perspectives focused on single case studies. There is a need for more transdisciplinary and multi-sited research to enrich our understandings of the complexity of human-nonhuman interactions and to design ways to make them more convivial. The multi-year CONVIVA “convivial conservation” research project addressed this gap, involving scholars from natural sciences, social sciences and humanities to promote coexistence, biodiversity and justice in conservation across four diverse case studies of apex predators: jaguars in Brazil, wolves in Finland, lions in Tanzania, and brown bears in California, United States. In this article, we set out two key contributions. First, we highlight how our project created iterative, dialogue-based reflections amongst different disciplines and perspectives to inform research questions, methods and units of analysis, fulfilling what we see as a key need in the literature. Second, we operationalise our collaboration beyond disciplinary silos into a novel framework of five interconnected dimensions of analysis, that characterise human-predator interactions, drawing on a range of lenses and including a series of guiding questions. We also showcase empirical material from our cases across wildlife, environment, interactions, institutions and justice dimensions. We present our approach, framework and findings with collective reflections and an invitation for adaptation and further research on their suitability to other contexts and species.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2016

Moving from awareness to action: Advancing climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning for Idaho and Montana National Forests

The rugged landscapes of northern Idaho and western Montana support biodiverse ecosystems, and provide a variety of natural resources and services for human communities. However, the benefits provided by these ecosystems may be at risk as changing climate magnifies existing stressors and allows new stressors to emerge. Preparation for and response to these potential changes can be most effectively addressed through multi-stakeholder partnerships, evaluating vulnerability of important resources to climate change, and developing response and preparation strategies for managing key natural resources in a changing world. This project will support climate-smart conservation and management across forests of northern Idaho and western Montana through three main components: (1) fostering partnerships among scientists, land managers, regional landowners, conservation practitioners, and the public; (2) assessing the vulnerability of a suite of regionally important resources to climate change and other stressors; and (3) creating a portfolio of adaptation strategies and actions to help resource managers prepare for and respond to the likely impacts of climate change. The results of this project will be used to inform the upcoming land management plan revisions for national forests, helping ensure that the most effective and robust conservation and management strategies are implemented to preserve our natural resources.

Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2011

Portrait of a small population of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas )

Much attention has been given to the conservation of small populations, those that are small because of decline, and those that are naturally small. Small populations are of particular interest because ecological theory suggests that they are vulnerable to the deleterious effects of environmental, demographic, and genetic stochasticity as well as natural and human-induced catastrophes. However, testing theory and developing applicable conservation measures for small populations is hampered by sparse data. This lack of information is frequently driven by computational issues with small data sets that can be confounded by the impacts of stressors. We present estimates of demographic parameters from a small population of Boreal Toads (Anaxyrus boreas) that has been surveyed since 2001 by using capture-recapture methods. Estimates of annual adult survival probability are high relative to other Boreal Toad populations, whereas estimates of recruitment rate are low. Despite using simple models, clear patterns emerged from the analyses, suggesting that population size is constrained by low recruitment of adults and is declining slowly. These patterns provide insights that are useful in developing management directions for this small population, and this study serves as an example of the potential for small populations to yield robust and useful information despite sample size constraints.

Herpetologica↗

USGS2022

Pathways for avian influenza virus spread: GPS reveals wild waterfowl in commercial livestock facilities and connectivity with the natural wetland landscape

Zoonotic diseases are of considerable concern to the human population and viruses such as avian influenza (AIV) threaten food security, wildlife conservation and human health. Wild waterfowl and the natural wetlands they use are known AIV reservoirs, with birds capable of virus transmission to domestic poultry populations. While infection risk models have linked migration routes and AIV outbreaks, there is a limited understanding of wild waterfowl presence on commercial livestock facilities, and movement patterns linked to natural wetlands. We documented 11 wild waterfowl (three Anatidae species) in or near eight commercial livestock facilities in Washington and California with GPS telemetry data. Wild ducks used dairy and beef cattle feed lots and facility retention ponds during both day and night suggesting use for roosting and foraging. Two individuals (single locations) were observed inside poultry facility boundaries while using nearby wetlands. Ducks demonstrated high site fidelity, returning to the same areas of habitats (at livestock facilities and nearby wetlands), across months or years, showed strong connectivity with surrounding wetlands, and arrived from wetlands up to 1251 km away in the week prior. Telemetry data provides substantial advantages over observational data, allowing assessment of individual movement behaviour and wetland connectivity that has significant implications for outbreak management. Telemetry improves our understanding of risk factors for waterfowl–livestock virus transmission and helps identify factors associated with coincident space use at the wild waterfowl–domestic livestock interface. Our research suggests that even relatively small or isolated natural and artificial water or food sources in/near facilities increases the likelihood of attracting waterfowl, which has important consequences for managers attempting to minimize or prevent AIV outbreaks. Use and interpretation of telemetry data, especially in near-real-time, could provide key information for reducing virus transmission risk between waterfowl and livestock, improving protective barriers between wild and domestic species, and abating outbreaks.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases↗

USGS2012

The Colorado Plateau V: research, environmental planning, and management for collaborative conservation

Roughly centered on the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States, the Colorado Plateau covers some 130,000 square miles of sparsely vegetated plateaus, mesas, canyons, arches, and cliffs in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. With elevations ranging from 3,000 to 14,000 feet, the natural systems found within the plateau are dramatically varied, from desert to alpine conditions.This volume, the fifth from the University of Arizona Press and the tenth overall, focuses on adaptation of resource management and conservation to climate change and water scarcity, protecting biodiversity through restructured energy policies, ensuring wildlife habitat connectivity across barriers, building effective conservation networks, and exploring new opportunities for education and leadership in conservation science.An informative read for people interested in the conservation and natural history of the region, the book will also serve as a valuable reference for those people engaged in the management of cultural and biological resources of the Colorado Plateau, as well as scientists interested in methods and tools for land and resource management throughout the West.

Book↗

USGS2017

Protected areas as social-ecological systems: perspectives from resilience and social-ecological systems theory

Conservation biology and applied ecology increasingly recognize that natural resource management is both an outcome and a driver of social, economic, and ecological dynamics. Protected areas offer a fundamental approach to conserving ecosystems, but they are also social-ecological systems whose ecological management and sustainability are heavily influenced by people. This editorial, and the papers in the invited feature that it introduces, discuss three emerging themes in social-ecological systems approaches to understanding protected areas: (1) the resilience and sustainability of protected areas, including analyses of their internal dynamics, their effectiveness, and the resilience of the landscapes within which they occur; (2) the relevance of spatial context and scale for protected areas, including such factors as geographic connectivity, context, exchanges between protected areas and their surrounding landscapes, and scale dependency in the provision of ecosystem services; and (3) efforts to reframe what protected areas are and how they both define and are defined by the relationships of people and nature. These emerging themes have the potential to transform management and policy approaches for protected areas and have important implications for conservation, in both theory and practice.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2022

Effective conservation of desert riverscapes requires protection and restoration of in-stream flows with rehabilitation approaches tailored to water availability

Desert riverscape rehabilitation practitioners must contend with compounding effects of increasing human water demand, persistent drought, non-native species establishment, and climate change, which further stress desert riverine ecosystems such as rivers in the Colorado River basin, United States. Herein, we provide our perspective on the importance of natural flows, large floods in particular, for successful conservation and rehabilitation of riverscapes. We present ideas developed from our experience with rehabilitation projects across multiple desert tributary rivers with varying levels of habitat degradation and water abstraction. We propose spatially extensive measures such as protection of in-stream flows, tailoring rehabilitation efforts to available annual water availability, and working with nature using low-tech process-based techniques to more completely address the mechanisms of habitat degradation, such as flow reduction and vegetation-induced channel narrowing. Traditionally, rehabilitation efforts in the Colorado River basin take place at relatively small spatial extents, at convenient locations and, largely focus on reducing non-native plant and fish species. We suggest that we need to think more broadly and creatively, and that conservation or recovery of natural flow regimes is crucial to long-term success of almost all management efforts for both in-stream and riparian communities.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

USGS2002

North Carolina's natural heritage program: A case for public-private cooperation

Voluntary conservation programs are an effective tool for recognizing and preserving the value of special places on private forestlands. We evaluate private landowner participation in the Natural Heritage Program of North Carolina, finding that landowners are more likely to enroll land with high ecological significance in this voluntary program. Voluntary conservation is less likely on lands that are remote from threats such as roads, that have higher value in other uses, and that are near lands already conserved by the public.

Journal of Forestry↗

USGS2019

Amphibian conservation in the Anthropocene

Research is necessary to identify patterns in nature, to understand how a system functions, and to make predictions about the future state of an ecosystem. Applied research in conservation biology can identify effective strategies to maintain biodiversity, though many papers end with the conclusion that more research is needed. However, more research does not necessarily lead to solutions. We use the ongoing global decline of amphibians as a salient example to highlight limitations in current conservation research, and to focus on finding solutions which are directly relevant for conservation. While research has been conducted since declines were first detected in the 1990s, outside a few specific examples, little progress in conservation has been achieved. We suggest that the case of amphibian declines is relevant to conservation science in general, as the current paradigm for conservation is that management is planned after research is completed; research and management are not effectively (and not directly) connected. This disconnect illustrates the knowledge-action divide which has been identified as a serious deficiency in conservation. Accordingly, we use this introductory paper to the Special Issue (Amphibian conservation in the Anthropocene: Progress and challenges) to describe amphibians as a conservation dilemma, and to make the case for a different, more pragmatic, and more solutions-focused view of conservation research.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗

USGS2010

The Colorado Plateau IV: shaping conservation through science and management

Roughly centered on the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States, the Colorado Plateau covers some 130,000 square miles of sparsely vegetated plateaus, mesas, canyons, arches, and cliffs in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. With elevations ranging from 3,000 to 14,000 feet, the natural systems found within the plateau are dramatically varied, from desert to alpine conditions. This book focuses on the integration of science and resource management issues in this unique and highly varied environment. Broken into three subsections, this volume addresses conservation biology, biophysical resources, and inventory and monitoring concerns. The chapters range in content, addressing conservation issues–past, present, and future–on the Colorado Plateau, measurement of human impacts on resources, grazing and wildland-urban interfaces, and tools and methods for monitoring habitats and species. An informative read for people interested in the conservation and natural history of the region, the book will also serve as a valuable reference for those people engaged in the management of cultural and biological resources of the Colorado Plateau, as well as scientists interested in methods and tools for land and resource management throughout the West.

Utah;Colorado;Arizona;New Mexico↗

USGS2025

Anthropogenic activities have greatly altered mangroves over the last hundred years

Mangroves not only provide ecosystem and cultural services but also contribute to the mitigation of global warming. Mangrove dynamics and their environmental responses as re-constructed from the past can inform current mangrove conservation and restoration. However, our understanding of mangrove dynamics over the past century and the impact of human activities on these ecosystems remains limited. Using the quantified mangrove-derived organic carbon (MOC) contributions of seven sediment cores, we reconstructed the historical mangrove dynamics in Yingluo Bay and the Maowei Sea in tropical China dating back to 1900. The results indicated that the natural undisturbed mangroves in Yingluo Bay flourished in response to rising temperatures. In contrast, the significantly human-disturbed mangroves in Maowei Sea experienced a marked decline. Although both areas share similar natural conditions, intense anthropogenic disturbance reversed the natural potential for mangrove growth in the Maowei Sea. To explore the global prevalence of this phenomenon, we compiled data on mangrove pollen, δ 13 C org , MOC, and mangrove area change from over 40 sites/regions worldwide, and re-constructed the natural and human-affected mangrove dynamics over the past century. Our findings indicated that, owing to the globally rising temperatures, natural undisturbed mangroves have gradually expanded as progressively more healthy forests, while human-disturbed mangroves exhibited three patterns: (1) continuous degradation, (2) flourishing-degradation, and (3) degradation-regeneration. Anthropogenic activities, such as seawall construction, aquaculture activity, agricultural expansion, logging, and urbanization have significantly reversed the natural health of mangroves such that any conservation and restoration strategy used for mangroves globally could inherently consider anthropogenic factors along with natural environmental change for better outcomes.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2022

Freshwater corridors in the conterminous US: A coarse-filter approach based on lake-stream networks

Maintaining regional-scale freshwater connectivity is challenging owing to the dendritic, easily fragmented structure of freshwater networks, but is essential for promoting ecological resilience under climate change. Although the importance of stream network connectivity has been recognized, lake-stream network connectivity has largely been ignored. Furthermore, protected areas are generally not designed to maintain or encompass entire freshwater networks. We applied a coarse-filter approach to identify potential freshwater corridors for diverse taxa by calculating connectivity scores for 385 lake-stream networks across the conterminous US based on network size, structure, resistance to fragmentation, and dam prevalence. We also identified 2080 disproportionately important lakes for maintaining intact networks (i.e., “hubs”; 2% of all network lakes) and analyzed the protection status of hubs and potential freshwater corridors. Just 3% of networks received high connectivity scores based on their large size and structure (medians of 1303 lakes, 498.6 km north-south stream distance), but these also contained a median of 454 dams. In contrast, undammed networks (17% of networks) were considerably smaller (medians of 6 lakes, 7.2 km north-south stream distance), indicating that the functional connectivity of the largest potential freshwater corridors in the conterminous US currently may be diminished compared to smaller, undammed networks. Network lakes and hubs were protected at similar rates nationally across different levels of protection (8-18% and 6-20%, respectively), but were generally more protected in the western US. Our results indicate that conterminous US protection of major freshwater corridors and the hubs that maintain them generally fell short of the international conservation goal of protecting an ecologically representative, well-connected set of fresh waters (≥ 17%) by 2020 (Aichi Target 11). Conservation planning efforts might consider focusing on restoring natural hydrologic connectivity at or near hubs, particularly in larger networks, less protected, or biodiverse regions, to support freshwater biodiversity conservation under climate change.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2006

Population momentum across vertebrate life histories

Population abundance is critically important in conservation, management, and demographic theory. Thus, to better understand how perturbations to the life history affect long-term population size, we examined population momentum for four vertebrate classes with different life history strategies. In a series of demographic experiments we show that population momentum generally has a larger effect on long-term population size for organisms with long generation times than for organisms with short generation times. However, patterns between population momentum and generation time varied across taxonomic groups and according to the life history parameter that was changed. Our findings indicate that momentum may be an especially important aspect of population dynamics for long-lived vertebrates, and deserves greater attention in life history studies. Further, we discuss the importance of population momentum in natural resource management, pest control, and conservation arenas. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2017

Population characteristics and the influence of discharge on Bluehead Sucker and Flannelmouth Sucker

Rivers are among some of the most complex and important ecosystems in the world. Unfortunately, many fishes endemic to rivers have suffered declines in abundance and distribution suggesting that alterations to lotic environments have negatively influenced native fish populations. Of the 35 fishes native to the Colorado River basin (CRB), seven are considered either endangered, threatened, or species of special concern. As such, the conservation of fishes native to the CRB is a primary interest for natural resource management agencies. One of the major factors limiting the conservation and management of fishes endemic to the CRB is the lack of basic information on their ecology and population characteristics. We sought to describe the population dynamics and demographics of three populations of Bluehead Suckers ( Catostomus discobolus ) and Flannelmouth Suckers ( C. latipinnis ) in Utah. Additionally, we evaluated the potential influence of altered flow regimes on the recruitment and growth of Bluehead Suckers and Flannelmouth Suckers. Mortality of Bluehead Suckers and Flannelmouth Suckers from the Green, Strawberry, and White rivers was comparable to other populations. Growth of Bluehead Suckers and Flannelmouth Suckers was higher in the Green, Strawberry, and White rivers when compared to other populations in the CRB. Similarly, recruitment indices suggested that Bluehead Suckers and Flannelmouth Suckers in the Green, Strawberry, and White rivers had more stable recruitment than other populations in the CRB. Models relating growth and recruitment to hydrological indices provided little explanatory power. Notwithstanding, our results indicate that Bluehead Suckers and Flannelmouth Suckers in the Green, Strawberry, and White rivers represent fairly stable populations and provide baseline information that will be valuable for the effective management and conservation of the species.

Utah↗

USGS2025

Endemic and invasive species: A history of distributional trends in the fish fauna of the lower New River drainage

Invasive species are often central to conservation efforts, particularly when concerns involve potential impacts on rare, endemic native species. The lower New River drainage of the eastern United States is a watershed that warrants conservation assessment, as the system is naturally depauperate of native fish species and it is nearly saturated with non-native fish species: there are 31 natives, including at least nine endemic taxa, and 63 non-natives. For endemic taxa, we examined temporal distribution shifts (range expansions or contractions) based on percent change in the occupied watershed area. We contrasted these findings with time series analyses on distribution trends of non-native minnows (Leuciscidae) and darters (Percidae) based on growth curve models of the cumulative sum of the total area of occupied 12-digit hydrologic unit codes. We documented range reductions for six of nine endemic taxa. We determined that 11 of 18 non-native minnows and 6 of 8 non-native darters were invasive based on range expansions and associated invasion curve models. The endemic taxa are of conservation concern given the limited distribution ranges and documented population declines. Although among-species comparisons of range shifts do not support causal inference, documentation of changes in distribution ranges of endemic and invasive species is critical to inform conservation efforts.

North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2017

Developing an effective Agassiz's Desert Tortoise monitoring program: Final report to the Coachella Valley Conservation Commission

Agassiz’s desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is a conservation-reliant species with populations north and west of the Colorado River protected as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (Averill-Murray et al. 2012). Since it was listed under this category in 1990, a great deal has been learned about the natural history of the species, and it is now one of the best-studied turtles in the United States (Lovich and Ennen 2013). However, the accumulated body of scientific data available for the species has not yet been translated into recovery or delisting of the species. Successful conservation of any species requires knowledge of their natural history and how vital rates affect their ability to maintain stable populations in the face of natural and anthropogenic stresses. Agassiz’s desert tortoises occur from southwestern Utah to near the Mexican border in California – a distance of over 450 km – but population densities vary greatly across this immense landscape (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2015). Tortoises occur in the Sonoran Desert of California, including the eastern and western ends of the Coachella Valley, where it is one of 27 species covered under the Coachella Valley Multiple Species Habitat Conservation Plan and Natural Community Conservation Plan (CVMSHCP/NCCP). The southern portion of Joshua Tree National Park (JTNP) lies within this 1.1 million acre planning area, and was predicted to be an area of low-density tortoise populations using habitat suitability modeling (Barrows 2011). JTNP is near the southern distributional limit of G. agassizii, yet very little has been published regarding the ecology of tortoises in the Sonoran Desert of California. Reproductive output is an important gross measure of the ability of a population to persist. When integrated with data on fertility and survivorship, this information forms a foundation for assessing population status and formulating effective management strategies (e.g., Congdon et al. 1993, 1994), especially for imperiled species. One aspect of the biology of G. agassizii that has been particularly well-studied is reproductive output. However, most of what we know about this topic comes from research in the Mojave Desert portion of the species’ range (Ernst and Lovich 2009). Comparatively little has been published on the reproductive ecology of populations living in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem of California. Publications by Lovich et al. (1999, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015) constitute the main body of literature on desert tortoise reproductive ecology in the Sonoran Desert of California, with one study population located at the western end of the CVMSHCP/NCCP area. Collecting data on Agassiz’s desert tortoise ecology in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem is important due to significant differences between the two adjacent desert ecosystems, especially the timing and amounts of annual precipitation, and their potential effects on reproductive output (e.g., Lovich et al. 5 2015). There are also differences in the vulnerability of tortoises to the effects of a warming, drying climate between the two deserts (Barrows 2011; Zylstra et al. 2012). The overall goal of this study was to collect data on demography, reproductive output, and genetic affinities at a study site in the Sonoran Desert portion of JTNP in the eastern end of the CVMSHCP/NCCP area. Specific objectives included: 1) Collect data to establish baselines on tortoise populations and/or their habitat suitability in core habitat within the CVNCCP area, including biotic and abiotic variables affecting persistence of tortoise populations; 2) Compare and contrast with data collected on desert tortoises at USGS/BLM study site near Palm Springs over 16 years; 3) Support long-term modeling efforts needed to determine tortoise population viability; 4) Refine modeled relationships with identified threats such as fire, invasive species and climate change; and 5) Prioritize adaptive management needs for the desert tortoise in and beyond the CVNCCP area. The data from this study will aid in determining baseline estimates of the desert tortoise population size within the planning area as well as establish a marked population of Agassiz’s desert tortoises for future monitoring. Data will be integrated with habitat modeling in order to refine model output. Genetic data will be collected on both the north and south sides of Interstate 10 to determine the potential effects of habitat fragmentation and genetic mixing. Analyses are ongoing and results beyond those presented in this report will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals following inclusion of additional data collected on the south side of Shavers Valley in 2017-2018.

Report↗

USGS2013

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 14: plants of conservation concern

Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks are located in the California Floristic Province, which has been named one of world‘s hotspots of endemic biodiversity (Myers et al. 2000). The California Floristic Province is the largest and most important geographic floristic unit in California and extends from the Klamath Mountains of southwestern Oregon to the northwestern portion of Baja California (Hickman 1993). The Sierra Nevada, one of six regions that make up the California Floristic Province, covers nearly 20% of the land in California yet contains over 50% of its flora. Within the Sierra Nevada, the southern Sierra supports more Sierran endemic and rare plant taxa than the central and northern portions of the region (Shevock 1996). Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) encompass roughly 20% of the southern Sierra Nevada region. The parks overlap three floristic subregions (central Sierra Nevada High, southern Sierra Nevada High, and southern Sierra Nevada Foothills), and border the Great Basin Floristic Province. The parks support a rich and diverse vascular flora composed of over 1,560 taxa. Of these, 150 taxa are identified as having special status. The term special status is applied here to include taxa that are state or federally listed, rare in California, or at risk because they have a limited distribution. Only one species from these parks is listed under the state or federal Endangered Species Acts ( Carex tompkinsii , Tompkins‘ sedge, is listed as a rare species under the California Endangered Species Act), and one species is under review for federal endangered listing ( Pinus albicaulis , whitebark pine). However, an absence of threatened and endangered species recognized by Endangered Species Acts is not equivalent to an absence of species at risk. There are 83 plant taxa documented as occurring in SEKI that are considered imperiled or vulnerable in the state by the California Department of Fish and Game‘s California Natural Diversity Database (CNDDB 2010a). There are an additional 66 taxa not formally listed by CNDDB that are recognized as having special status because their distribution is restricted to the Sierra Nevada. Special status plants are distributed throughout the two parks and inhabit a wide range of environments along the length of the elevation gradient that characterizes these parks. Ideally, we would assess the condition (status and trends) of each of the taxa on the SEKI special status plant list, documenting current population sizes, demographic rates and demographic trends. We would also hope to quantify the effects of individual stressors on each species based on existing monitoring and research. However, no data are available for most of the species on the special status plant list. For those few species (12 herbaceous species and two tree species) for which we possess some change over time information, the data are not adequate to make a competent assessment. Note that we have not explored the tree demographic information in any detail, as is covered in the NRCA Intact Forest/Five Needle Pines and Sequoia chapters. In general, we are unable to present an ‗integrity‘ metric for special status species in the parks, since the data to quantify the condition of each species in such a manner is not available. In contrast, the park does possess substantial data describing biodiversity in the parks. Therefore, our analysis focuses on describing the distribution and rarity of special status plants within the parks, with a particular focus on assessing the spatial distribution of species richness. We hope that such information will prove useful to park managers in determining which areas in the parks merit the most attention (for example in developing monitoring protocols). We also assess potential vulnerability of special status species to the stressors chosen by the NRCA working group, using both park data and available literature. As a first step, we spent considerable effort updating and refining the criteria for the special status plant list, as this list defines which taxa are considered in our assessment. Observation data of these species was then compiled from all known sources in order to provide a comprehensive view of where special status plants have been documented and, ultimately, to enable the most informed determinations of areas in the parks that potentially support the highest number of rare and endemic taxa. These ‗hot spot‘ analyses are presented by geographic region, vegetation type and elevation. For these and other analyses presented in this report, we place more focus on summarizing findings for the herbaceous and shrub special status taxa than on special status trees. The trees which qualify as special status are the focus of other NRCA chapters, including Giant Sequoia and Intact Forests/Five-needle Pines. We do, however, present their mapped distributions and provide overviews of research related to the special status tree taxa in the Stressors section of this report.

California↗

USGS2024

Climate futures for lizards and snakes in western North America may result in new species management issues

We assessed changes in fundamental climate-niche space for lizard and snake species in western North America under modeled climate scenarios to inform natural resource managers of possible shifts in species distributions. We generated eight distribution models for each of 130 snake and lizard species in western North America under six time-by-climate scenarios. We combined the highest-performing models per species into a single ensemble model for each scenario. Maps were generated from the ensemble models to depict climate-niche space for each species and scenario. Patterns of species richness based on climate suitability and niche shifts were calculated from the projections at the scale of the entire study area and individual states and provinces, from Canada to Mexico. Squamate species' climate-niche space for the recent-time climate scenario and published known ranges were highly correlated ( r = 0.81). Overall, reptile climate-niche space was projected to move northward in the future. Sixty-eight percent of species were projected to expand their current climate-niche space rather than to shift, contract, or remain stable. Only 8.5% of species were projected to lose climate-niche space in the future, and these species primarily occurred in Mexico and the southwestern U.S. We found few species were projected to lose all suitable climate-niche space at the state or province level, although species were often predicted to occupy novel areas, such as at higher elevations. Most squamate species were projected to increase their climate-niche space in future climate scenarios. As climate niches move northward, species are predicted to cross administrative borders, resulting in novel conservation issues for local landowners and natural resource agencies. However, information on species dispersal abilities, landscape connectivity, biophysical tolerances, and habitat suitability is needed to contextualize predictions relative to realized future niche expansions.

Ecology and Evolution↗