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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources

Variation in δ 13 C and δ 15 N diet–vibrissae trophic discrimination factors in a wild population of California sea otters

The ability to quantify dietary inputs using stable isotope data depends on accurate estimates of isotopic differences between a consumer (c) and its diet (d), commonly referred to as trophic discrimination factors (TDFs) and denoted by Δ c-d . At present, TDFs are available for only a few mammals and are usually derived in captive settings. The magnitude of TDFs and the degree to which they vary in wild populations is unknown. We determined δ 13 C and δ 15 N TDFs for vibrissae (i.e., whiskers), a tissue that is rapidly becoming an informative isotopic substrate for ecologists, of a wild population of sea otters for which individual diet has been quantified through extensive observational study. This is one of the very few studies that report TDFs for free-living wild animals feeding on natural diets. Trophic discrimination factors of 2.2‰ ± 0.7‰ for δ 13 C and 3.5‰ ± 0.6‰ for δ 15 N (mean ± SD) were similar to those reported for captive carnivores, and variation in individual δ 13 C TDFs was negatively but significantly related to sea urchin consumption. This pattern may relate to the lipid-rich diet consumed by most sea otters in this population and suggests that it may not be appropriate to lipid-extract prey samples when using the isotopic composition of keratinaceous tissues to examine diet in consumers that frequently consume lipid-rich foods, such as many marine mammals and seabirds. We suggest that inherent variation in TDFs should be included in isotopically based estimates of trophic level, food chain length, and mixing models used to quantify dietary inputs in wild populations; this practice will further define the capabilities and limitations of isotopic approaches in ecological studies.

Ecological Applications↗

Age and paleoenvironmental significance of mega-invertebrates from the "San Pedro" Formation in the Coyote Hills, Fullerton and Buena Park, Orange County, Southern California

The "San Pedro" Formation in the Coyote Hills contains an invertebrate fossil as-semblage of 184 taxa from 158 localities. The fauna consists of two annelids, 174 mollusks (80 bivalves, 94 gastropods, and three scaphopods), five arthropods, and three echinoids, along with other minor constituents recognized by not specifically identified during the present study. These fossils are divided into three assemblages; 1) a lower, Pliocene assemblage (which may not differ ecologically from the middle fauna), 2) a middle, cool water assemblage, and 3) an upper, temperate to warm water. These fossils suggest a probably late Pliocene to early Pleistocene age for outcrops of the "San Pedro" Formation in the Coyote Hills. A fourth assemblage with a limited, restricted marine fauna occurs in the overlying Coyote Hills Formation. The occurrence of Solamen columbianum (Dall) (Mollusca: Bivalvia) in the "San Pedro" Formation of the Coyote Hills marks its first occurrence as a fossil. The oldest fossil occurrence of the gastropods Tegula pulligo (Gmelin), questionably Haliotis cracherodii Leach, and the crustacean Randallia ornata (Randell) occurs in the "San Pedroï" Formation in the Coyote Hills.

California↗

A preliminary report of ongoing research of the ecology of Black-capped Petrel (Pterodroma hasitata) in Sierra de Bahoruco, Dominican Republic – I: GPS tracking of breeding adults

The Black-capped Petrel (also known regionally as Diablotin) is a gadfly petrel endemic to the Caribbean. Population estimates based on at-sea observations range from 2,000 to 4,000 individuals, with a fragmented breeding population estimated at 500 to 1,000 pairs. At sea, the expansive marine range of the species exposes it to many conservation threats including fisheries activity, offshore energy development, marine pollution including mercury bio-accumulation, and climate change. Such disturbances at sea have been under-studied although they are likely to impact the survival of the species.

Sierra de Bahoruco↗

Does what go up also come down? Using a recruitment model to balance alewife nutrient import and export

Migrating adult Alewives Alosa pseudoharengus are a source of marine-derived nutrients on the East Coast of North America, importing nitrogen and phosphorus into freshwater habitats. Juvenile migrants subsequently transport freshwater-derived nutrients into the ocean. We developed a deterministic model to explore the theoretical nutrient dynamics of Alewife migrations at differing spawner abundances. Net nutrient balance was calculated relative to these abundances along the spawner–recruit curve. The ecological consequences of these subsidies in a particular watershed depend on the magnitude of adult escapement relative to the habitat’s carrying capacity for juveniles. At low escapement levels and assuming complete habitat access, the number of recruits produced per spawner was high and juvenile nutrient export dominated. At high escapement levels, fewer recruits were produced per spawner because recruitment is density dependent. As a result, adult nutrient import dominated. At varying levels of freshwater productivity and fisheries mortality for upstream spawners, this trend remained the same while the magnitude of the endpoints changed. Productivity level was the major determinant of export, while fisheries mortality had the strongest effect on adult import. The dynamics of this nutrient trade-off are important for managers to consider as a recovering population will likely shift from net export to net import as escapement increases. This transition will be sensitive to both harvest rates and to fish passage efficacy at dams and other barriers.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗

The effects of spilled oil on coastal ecosystems: Lessons from the Exxon Valdez spill

Oil spilled from ships or other sources into the marine environment often occurs in close proximity to coastlines, and oil frequently accumulates in coastal habitats. As a consequence, a rich, albeit occasionally controversial, body of literature describes a broad range of effects of spilled oil across several habitats, communities, and species in coastal environments. This statement is not to imply that spilled oil has less of an effect in pelagic marine ecosystems, but rather that marine spills occurring offshore may be less likely to be detected, and associated effects are more difficult to monitor, evaluate, and quantify (Peterson et al ., 2012). As a result, we have a much greater awareness of coastal pollution, which speaks to our need to improve our capacities in understanding the ecology of the open oceans. Conservation of coastal ecosystems and assessment of risks associated with oil spills can be facilitated through a better understanding of processes leading to direct and indirect responses of species and systems to oil exposure. It is also important to recognize that oil spilled from ships represents only ~9% of the nearly 700 000 barrels of petroleum that enter waters of North America annually from anthropogenic sources (NRC, 2003). The immediate effects of large spills can be defined as acute, due to the obvious and dramatic effects that are observed. In contrast, the remaining 625 000 barrels that are released each year can be thought of as chronic non-point pollution, resulting from oil entering the coastal ocean as runoff in a more consistent but much less conspicuous rate. In this chapter, we primarily address the effects of large oil spills that occur near coastlines and consider their potential for both acute and chronic effects on coastal communities. As described below, in some instances, the effects from chronic exposure may meet or exceed the more evident acute effects from large spills. Consequently, although quantifying chronic effects from low exposure rates can be challenging and time-consuming, the results of such efforts provide insights into the understudied effects of chronic non-point oil pollution.

Alaska↗

Atlantic reef fish biogeography and evolution

Aim: To understand why and when areas of endemism (provinces) of the tropical Atlantic Ocean were formed, how they relate to each other, and what processes have contributed to faunal enrichment. Location: Atlantic Ocean. Methods: The distributions of 2605 species of reef fishes were compiled for 25 areas of the Atlantic and southern Africa. Maximum-parsimony and distance analyses were employed to investigate biogeographical relationships among those areas. A collection of 26 phylogenies of various Atlantic reef fish taxa was used to assess patterns of origin and diversification relative to evolutionary scenarios based on spatio-temporal sequences of species splitting produced by geological and palaeoceanographic events. We present data on faunal (species and genera) richness, endemism patterns, diversity buildup (i.e. speciation processes), and evaluate the operation of the main biogeographical barriers and/or filters. Results: Phylogenetic (proportion of sister species) and distributional (number of shared species) patterns are generally concordant with recognized biogeographical provinces in the Atlantic. The highly uneven distribution of species in certain genera appears to be related to their origin, with highest species richness in areas with the greatest phylogenetic depth. Diversity buildup in Atlantic reef fishes involved (1) diversification within each province, (2) isolation as a result of biogeographical barriers, and (3) stochastic accretion by means of dispersal between provinces. The timing of divergence events is not concordant among taxonomic groups. The three soft (non-terrestrial) inter-regional barriers (mid-Atlantic, Amazon, and Benguela) clearly act as 'filters' by restricting dispersal but at the same time allowing occasional crossings that apparently lead to the establishment of new populations and species. Fluctuations in the effectiveness of the filters, combined with ecological differences among provinces, apparently provide a mechanism for much of the recent diversification of reef fishes in the Atlantic. Main conclusions: Our data set indicates that both historical events (e.g. Tethys closure) and relatively recent dispersal (with or without further speciation) have had a strong influence on Atlantic tropical marine biodiversity and have contributed to the biogeographical patterns we observe today; however, examples of the latter process outnumber those of the former. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Journal of Biogeography↗

Continuous water-quality and suspended-sediment transport monitoring in the San Francisco Bay, California, water years 2016–17

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors water quality and suspended-sediment transport in the San Francisco Bay (Bay) as part of a multi-agency effort to address estuary management, water supply, and ecological concerns. The San Francisco Bay area is home to millions of people, and the Bay teems with plants and both resident and migratory wildlife, and fish. Freshwater mixes with salt water in the Bay and is subject to riverine influences (floods, droughts, managed reservoir releases, and freshwater diversions) and marine influences (tides, waves, and effects of salt water). To understand this environment, the USGS along with its cooperators (see “Acknowledgments”), has been monitoring the Bay’s waters continuously since 1988.

California↗

Patterns and controlling factors of species diversity in the Arctic Ocean

Aim The Arctic Ocean is one of the last near-pristine regions on Earth, and, although human activities are expected to impact on Arctic ecosystems, we know very little about baseline patterns of Arctic Ocean biodiversity. This paper aims to describe Arctic Ocean-wide patterns of benthic biodiversity and to explore factors related to the large-scale species diversity patterns. Location Arctic Ocean. Methods We used large ostracode and foraminiferal datasets to describe the biodiversity patterns and applied comprehensive ecological modelling to test the degree to which these patterns are potentially governed by environmental factors, such as temperature, productivity, seasonality, ice cover and others. To test environmental control of the observed diversity patterns, subsets of samples for which all environmental parameters were available were analysed with multiple regression and model averaging. Results Well-known negative latitudinal species diversity gradients (LSDGs) were found in metazoan Ostracoda, but the LSDGs were unimodal with an intermediate maximum with respect to latitude in protozoan foraminifera. Depth species diversity gradients were unimodal, with peaks in diversity shallower than those in other oceans. Our modelling results showed that several factors are significant predictors of diversity, but the significant predictors were different among shallow marine ostracodes, deep-sea ostracodes and deep-sea foraminifera. Main conclusions On the basis of these Arctic Ocean-wide comprehensive datasets, we document large-scale diversity patterns with respect to latitude and depth. Our modelling results suggest that the underlying mechanisms causing these species diversity patterns are unexpectedly complex. The environmental parameters of temperature, surface productivity, seasonality of productivity, salinity and ice cover can all play a role in shaping large-scale diversity patterns, but their relative importance may depend on the ecological preferences of taxa and the oceanographic context of regions. These results suggest that a multiplicity of variables appear to be related to community structure in this system.

Journal of Biogeography↗

Ecological effects of the harvest phase of geoduck clam (Panopea generosa Gould, 1850) aquaculture on infaunal communities in southern Puget Sound, Washington USA.

Intertidal aquaculture for geoducks ( Panopea generosa Gould, 1850) is expanding in southern Puget Sound, Washington, where gently sloping sandy beaches are used for field culture. Geoduck aquaculture contributes significantly to the regional economy, but has become controversial because of a range of unresolved questions involving potential biological impacts on marine ecosystems. From 2008 through 2012, the authors used a “before-after-control-impact” experimental design, emphasizing spatial scales comparable with those used by geoduck culturists to evaluate the effects of harvesting market-ready geoducks on associated benthic infaunal communities. Infauna were sampled at three different study locations in southern Puget Sound at monthly intervals before, during, and after harvests of clams, and along extralimital transects extending away from the edges of cultured plots to assess the effects of harvest activities in adjacent uncultured habitat. Using multivariate statistical approaches, strong seasonal and spatial signals in patterns of abundance were found, but there was scant evidence of effects on the community structure associated with geoduck harvest disturbances within cultured plots. Likewise, no indications of significant “spillover” effects of harvest on uncultured habitat adjacent to cultured plots were noted. Complementary univariate approaches revealed little evidence of harvest effects on infaunal biodiversity and indications of modest effects on populations of individual infaunal taxa. Of 10 common taxa analyzed, only three showed evidence of reduced densities, although minor, after harvests whereas the remaining seven taxa indicated either neutral responses to harvest disturbances or increased abundance either during or in the months after harvest events. It is suggested that a relatively active natural disturbance regime, including both small-scale and large-scale events that occur with comparable intensity but more frequently than geoduck harvest events in cultured plots, has facilitated assemblage-level infaunal resistance and resilience to harvest disturbances.

Washington↗

Stony coral tissue loss disease accelerated shifts in coral composition and declines in reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys

Outbreaks of coral disease have been a dominant force shaping western Atlantic coral-reef assemblages since the late 1970s. Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) is nonetheless having an unprecedented impact in the region. Whereas numerous studies over the last decade have worked to characterize this novel pathogen and its impacts on coral populations, few have quantified its functional effects on reef ecosystems. Of particular importance is how SCTLD may be impacting the essential reef-accretion process and the myriad ecosystem services it supports. Here, we evaluated the impact of SCTLD on reef-accretion potential by estimating carbonate budgets and taxon-level carbonate production at 43 sites throughout the Florida Keys from 2016−2022. Average regional reef-accretion potential declined from an already low, but positive rate of 0.30 ± 0.16 mm y -1 (mean ± standard error) in 2016 before the disease was first observed, to a state of accretionary stasis (0.08 ± 0.12 mm y -1 ) by 2022. This 70% relative decline in reef-accretion potential was driven by the loss of reef-building corals, with significant decreases in carbonate production by massive taxa including Colpophyllia natans , Montastraea cavernosa , Pseudodiploria strigosa , Orbicella spp., and Siderastrea siderea , and increasing contributions from less susceptible, weedy taxa including Millepora spp., Agaricia spp., and Porites astreoides . In general, changes in taxon-level carbonate production following the SCTLD outbreak mirror long-term shifts in reef assemblages in response to previous stressors. One striking exception, however, is S. siderea , which had become increasingly dominant in recent decades, but declined significantly in response to SCTLD. Overall, by further decimating the already depauperate reef-building coral populations in the Florida Keys, SCTLD has caused a functionally significant shift in the composition of Florida’s coral-reef assemblages and accelerated the loss of regional reef-building capacity. The dire impacts of the disease in south Florida may serve as an early warning that the persistence of the invaluable ecological and socioeconomic functions coral reefs provide will be increasingly threatened throughout the western Atlantic in the aftermath of SCTLD.

Florida↗

Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years

In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

Mercury contamination and stable isotopes reveal variability in foraging ecology of generalist California gulls

Environmental contaminants are a concern for animal health, but contaminant exposure can also be used as a tracer of foraging ecology. In particular, mercury (Hg) concentrations are highly variable among aquatic and terrestrial food webs as a result of habitat- and site-specific biogeochemical processes that produce the bioaccumulative form, methylmercury (MeHg). We used stable isotopes and total Hg (THg) concentrations of a generalist consumer, the California gull ( Larus californicus ), to examine foraging ecology and illustrate the utility of using Hg contamination as an ecological tracer under certain conditions. We identified four main foraging clusters of gulls during pre-breeding and breeding, using a traditional approach based on light stable isotopes. The foraging cluster with the highest δ 15 N and δ 34 S values in gulls (cluster 4) had mean blood THg concentrations 614% (pre-breeding) and 250% (breeding) higher than gulls with the lowest isotope values (cluster 1). Using a traditional approach of stable-isotope mixing models, we showed that breeding birds with a higher proportion of garbage in their diet (cluster 2: 63–82% garbage) corresponded to lower THg concentrations and lower δ 15 N and δ 34 S values. In contrast, gull clusters with higher THg concentrations, which were more enriched in 15 N and 34 S isotopes, consumed a higher proportion of more natural, estuarine prey. δ 34 S values, which change markedly across the terrestrial to marine habitat gradient, were positively correlated with blood THg concentrations in gulls. The linkage we observed between stable isotopes and THg concentrations suggests that Hg contamination can be used as an additional tool for understanding animal foraging across coastal habitat gradients.

Ecological Indicators↗

Continuous water-quality and suspended-sediment transport monitoring in the San Francisco Bay, California, water years 2014–15

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors water quality and suspended-sediment transport in the San Francisco Bay (bay) as part of a multi-agency effort to address management, water supply, and ecological concerns. The San Francisco Bay area is home to millions of people, and the bay teems both with resident and with migratory wildlife, plants, and fish. Freshwater mixes with salt water in the bay, which is subject both to riverine influences (floods, droughts, managed reservoir releases and freshwater diversions) and to marine influences (tides, waves, effects of salt water). To understand this environment, the USGS, along with its partners (see “Acknowledgements”), has been monitoring the bay’s waters continuously since 1988. Several water-quality variables are of particular importance to State and Federal resource managers and are monitored at key locations throughout the bay (fig. 1). Salinity, which indicates the relative mixing of fresh and ocean waters in the bay, is derived from specific conductance measurements. Water temperature, along with salinity, affects the density of water, which controls gravity-driven circulation patterns and stratification in the water column. Turbidity, a measure of light scattered from suspended particles in the water, is used to estimate suspended-sediment concentration (SSC). Suspended sediment affects the bay in multiple ways: attenuation of sunlight in the water column, affecting phytoplankton growth; deposition on tidal marsh and intertidal mudflats, which can help sustain these habitats as sea level rises; deposition in ports and shipping channels, which can necessitate dredging; and often, adsorption of contaminants, affecting their distribution and concentrations in the environment. Dissolved oxygen concentration, essential to a healthy ecosystem and a fundamental indicator of water quality, is affected by water temperature, salinity, ecosystem metabolism, tidal currents, and wind. Tidal currents in the bay reverse four times a day, and wind direction and intensity typically vary on a daily cycle. Consequently, salinity, water temperature, SSC, and dissolved-oxygen concentration vary spatially and temporally throughout the bay. Therefore, continuous measurements are needed to observe these changes. The purpose of this fact sheet is to provide information about these variables, as well as internet links to access these continuous water-quality data collected by the USGS.

California↗

Relationship between fibropapillomatosis and environmental quality: A case study with Chelonia mydas off Brazil

We documented the presence of fibropapillomatosis (FP), a debilitating tumor-forming disease, in marine turtles in Espírito Santo Bay (Brazil) from March 2007 to April 2008, and assessed the value of a specific environmental index for predicting the prevalence of FP. Turtles were captured monthly with entanglement nets and scored for presence and severity of FP. For the assessment of habitat quality, we used the ecological evaluation index (EEI) based on benthic macrophytes. The FPfree control area was classified as good quality (EEI = 8) and the study area, with high FP prevalence, was classified as bad quality (EEI = 2). Prevalence of FP in the study area was 58.3% with an average of 40 tumors per individual, and prevalence varied positively with curved carapace length (CCL). No FP was seen in the control area. The number of turtles heavily afflicted (tumor score category 3) was 10 times larger than those lightly affected (tumor score category 1). Most tumors were found on or near the front and rear flippers; no oral tumors or internal tumors were found. At recapture, 41% of formerly tumor-free turtles revealed FP, often increasing in severity with time, and very few turtles showed signs of disease regression. From the results of this study we concluded that FP is particularly severe in Espírito Santo Bay. Future studies should focus on evaluating how widespread FP is in Brazil, whether prevalence is increasing or decreasing, and elucidating the pathology and pathogenesis of FP in sea turtles in Brazil.

Diseases of Aquatic Organisms↗

Fine scale relationships between sex, life history, and dispersal of masu salmon

Identifying the patterns and processes driving dispersal is critical for understanding population structure and dynamics. In many organisms, sex-biased dispersal is related to the type of mating system. Considerably less is known about the influence of life history variability on dispersal. Here we investigated patterns of dispersal in masu salmon (Oncorhynchus masou) to evaluate influences of sex and life history on dispersal. As expected, assignment tests and isolation by distance analysis revealed that dispersal of marine-migratory masu salmon was male-biased. However, dispersal of resident and migratory males did not follow our expectation and marine-migratory individuals dispersed more than residents. This may be because direct competition between marine-migratory and resident males is weak or that the cost of dispersal is smaller for marine-migratory individuals. This study revealed that both sex and migratory life history influence patterns of dispersal at a local scale in masu salmon.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Spatial and temporal diet patterns of subadult and small adult striped bass in Massachusetts estuaries: Data, a synthesis, and trends across scales

Subadult and small adult (375–475 mm total length) striped bass Morone saxatilis are abundant and represent an important component of the recovered U.S. Atlantic coast stocks. However, little is known about these large aggregations of striped bass during their annual foraging migrations to New England. A quantitative understanding of trends in the diets of subadult and small adult migrants is critical to research and management. Because of the complexity of the Massachusetts coast, we were able to compare diets at multiple spatial, temporal, and taxonomic scales and evaluate which of these provided the greatest insights into the foraging patterns of this size of fish. Specifically, during spring through autumn, we quantified the diets of 797 migratory striped bass collected from 13 Massachusetts estuaries distributed among three geographic regions in two biogeographic provinces. Our data provided three useful results. First, subadult and young adult striped bass ate a season-specific mixture of fish and invertebrates. For example, more juvenile Atlantic herring Clupea harengus were eaten in spring than in summer or autumn, more juvenile Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus were eaten in autumn than in spring or summer, amphipods were eaten primarily in the southern biogeographic province, and shrimp Crangon sp. were eaten in all locations and seasons. Second, examining diets by season was essential because of the temporal variability in striped bass prey. Grouping prey by fish and invertebrates revealed the potential for predictable differences in growth across geographic locations and seasons, based on the output from simple bioenergetics simulations. Third, of the three spatial scales examined, region provided the most quantitative and interpretable ecological trends. Our results demonstrate the utility of comparing multiple scales to evaluate the best way to depict diet trends in a migrating predator that seasonally uses different geographic locations.

Massachusetts↗

Mercury speciation in piscivorous fish from mining-impacted reservoirs

Guadalupe Reservoir (GUA), California, and Lahontan Reservoir (LAH), Nevada, U.S. are both affected either directly or indirectly by the legacy of gold and silver mining in the Sierra Nevada during the nineteenth century. Analysis of total mercury in fish from these lentic systems consistently indicate elevated concentrations (>1 μg·g-1 wet weight; hereinafter, all concentrations are reported as wet weight unless indicated otherwise) well above the U.S. Environmenal Protection Agency's human consumption advisory level for fish (<0.3 μg·g-1). Replicate X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) analyses on largemouth bass and hybrid striped bass from GUA and LAH were performed to determine predominant chemical species of mercury accumulated by these high-trophic-level piscivores that are exposed to elevated mercury through trophic transfer in mining-impacted lentic systems. Despite distinct differences in mercury source, the proximity of the source, and concentrations of complexing ligands, results of XANES analysis clearly indicated that mercury accumulated in these individual fish from the two reservoirs were dominated by methylmercury cysteine complexes. These findings are consistent with results from commercial fish species inhabiting marine environments which are presumed to include differing mercury sources (e.g., atmospheric, hydrothermal, or benthic). The dominance of methylmercury cysteine complexes in muscle tissues of fish obtained from such contrasting environments and exposure conditions suggests that a generic toxicological model for the consumption of fish could be applicable over a wide range of ecologic settings.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Projecting management-relevant change of undeveloped coastal barriers with the Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) v1.0

Models of coastal barrier geomorphic and ecologic change are valuable tools for understanding and predicting when, where, and how barriers evolve and transition between ecogeomorphic states. Few existing models of barrier systems are designed to operate over spatiotemporal scales congruous with effective management practices (i.e., decades/kilometers, referred to herein as “mesoscales”), incorporate important ecogeomorphic feedbacks, and provide probabilistic projections of future change. Here, we present a new numerical model designed to address these gaps by explicitly yet efficiently simulating coupled aeolian, marine, vegetation, and shoreline components of barrier evolution over spatiotemporal scales relevant to management. The Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) simulates subaerial ecomorphologic change of undeveloped barrier systems over kilometers and decades using meter-scale spatial resolution and weekly time steps. MEEB applies simplified parameterizations to represent and couple key ecogeomorphic processes: dune growth, vegetation expansion and mortality, beach and foredune erosion, barrier overwash, and shoreline and shoreface change. The model is parameterized and calibrated with observed elevation, vegetation, and water level data for a case study site of North Core Banks, NC, USA. Simulated ecogeomorphic change in model hindcasts agrees well with observations, demonstrating both favorable skill scores and qualitatively correct behavior. We also describe an additional model framework for producing probabilistic projections that account for uncertainties related to future forcing conditions and intrinsic stochastic dynamics and demonstrate the probabilistic framework's utility with example forecast simulations. As a mesoscale model, MEEB is designed to investigate questions about future barrier ecogeomorphic change of moderate complexity, offering semi-qualitative predictions and semi-quantitative explanations. For example, MEEB can be used to investigate how climate-induced shifts in ecological composition may alter the likelihood of morphologic impacts or to generate probabilistic projections of ecogeomorphic state change.

Geoscientific Model Development↗