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Geohydrology of the Central Oahu, Hawaii, ground-water flow system and numerical simulation of the effects of additional pumping

A two-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model was developed for the central Oahu flow system, which is the largest and most productive ground-water flow system on the island. The model is based on the computer code SHARP which simulates both freshwater and saltwater flow. The ground-water model was developed using average pumping and recharge conditions during the 1950's, which was considered to be a steady-state period. For 1950's conditions, model results indicate that 62 percent (90.1 million gallons per day) of the discharge from the Schofield ground-water area flows southward and the remaining 38 percent (55.2 million gallons per day) of the discharge from Schofield flows northward. Although the contribution of recharge from infiltration of rainfall and irrigation water directly on top of the southern and northern Schofield ground-water dams was included in the model, the distribution of natural discharge from the Schofield ground-water area was estimated exclusive of the recharge on top of the dams. The model was used to investigate the long-term effects of pumping under future land-use conditions. Future recharge was conservatively estimated by assuming no recharge associated with agricultural activities. Future pumpage used in the model was based on the 1995-allocated rates. Model results indicate that the long-term effect of pumping at the 1995-allocated rates will be a reduction of water levels from present (1995) conditions in all ground-water areas of the central Oahu flow system. In the Schofield ground-water area, model results indicate that water levels could decline about 30 feet from the 1995 water-level altitude of about 275 feet. In the remaining ground-water areas of the central Oahu flow system, water levels may decline from less than 1 foot to as much as 12 feet relative to 1995 water levels. Model results indicate that the bottoms of several existing deep wells in northern and southern Oahu extend below the model-calculated freshwater-saltwater interface location for the future recharge and pumping conditions. Model results indicate that an additional 10 million gallons per day (beyond the 1995-allocated rates) of freshwater can potentially be developed from northern Oahu. Various distributions of pumping can be used to obtain the additional 10 million gallons per day of water. The quality of the water pumped will be dependent on site-specific factors and cannot be predicted on the basis of model results. If the additional 10 million gallons per day pumpage is restricted to the Kawailoa and Waialua areas, model results indicate that a regional drawdown (relative to the water-level distribution associated with the 1995-allocated pumping rates) of less than 0.6 foot can be maintained in these two areas. The additional pumping, however, would cause salinity increases in water pumped by existing deep wells. In addition, increases in salinity may occur at other wells in areas where the model indicates no significant problem with upconing.

Hawaii

Hydrogeology and Ground-Water Flow in the Opequon Creek Watershed area, Virginia and West Virginia

Due to increasing population and economic development in the northern Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and West Virginia, water availability has become a primary concern for water-resource managers in the region. To address these issues, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Health and Human Services and the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, developed a numerical steady-state simulation of ground-water flow for the 1,013-square-kilometer Opequon Creek watershed area. The model was based on data aggregated for several recently completed and ongoing USGS hydrogeologic investigations conducted in Jefferson, Berkeley, and Morgan Counties in West Virginia and Clarke, Frederick, and Warren Counties in Virginia. A previous detailed hydrogeologic assessment of the watershed area of Hopewell Run (tributary to the Opequon Creek), which includes the USGS Leetown Science Center in Jefferson County, West Virginia, provided key understanding of ground-water flow processes in the aquifer. The ground-water flow model developed for the Opequon Creek watershed area is a steady-state, three-layer representation of ground-water flow in the region. The primary objective of the simulation was to develop water budgets for average and drought hydrologic conditions. The simulation results can provide water managers with preliminary estimates on which water-resource decisions may be based. Results of the ground-water flow simulation of the Opequon Creek watershed area indicate that hydrogeologic concepts developed for the Hopewell Run watershed area can be extrapolated to the larger watershed model. Sensitivity analyses conducted as part of the current modeling effort and geographic information system analyses of spring location and yield reveal that thrust and cross-strike faults and low-permeability bedding, which provide structural and lithologic controls, respectively, on ground-water flow, must be incorporated into the model to develop a realistic simulation of ground-water flow in the larger Opequon Creek watershed area. In the model, recharge for average hydrologic conditions was 689 m3/d/km2 (cubic meters per day per square kilometer) over the entire Opequon Creek watershed area. Mean and median measured base flows at the streamflow-gaging station on the Opequon Creek near Martinsburg, West Virginia, were 604,384 and 349,907 m3/d (cubic meters per day), respectively. The simulated base flow of 432,834 m3/d fell between the mean and median measured stream base flows for the station. Simulated base-flow yields for subwatersheds during average conditions ranged from 0 to 2,643 m3/d/km2, and the median for the entire Opequon Creek watershed area was 557 m3/d/km2. A drought was simulated by reducing model recharge by 40 percent, a rate that approximates the recharge during the prolonged 16-month drought that affected the region from November 1998 to February 2000. Mean and median measured streamflows for the Opequon Creek watershed area at the Martinsburg, West Virginia, streamflow-gaging station during the 1999 drought were 341,098 and 216,551 m3/d, respectively. The simulated drought base flow at the station of 252,356 m3/d is within the range of flows measured during the 1999 drought. Recharge was 413 m3/d/km2 over the entire watershed during the simulated drought, and was 388 m3/d/km2 at the gaging station. Simulated base-flow yields for drought conditions ranged from 0 to 1,865 m3/d/km2 and averaged 327 m3/d/km2 over the entire Opequon Creek watershed. Water budgets developed from the simulation results indicate a substantial component of direct ground-water discharge to the Potomac River. This phenomenon had long been suspected but had not been quantified. During average conditions, approximately 564,176 m3/d of base flow discharges to the Potomac River. An additional 124,379 m3/d of ground water is also estimated to discharge directly to the Potomac River and rep

Scientific Investigations Report

Mathematical model of San Juan Valley ground-water basin, San Benito County, California

A mathematical model study of the San Juan Valley ground-water basin in San Benito County, Calif., has quantitatively described the ground-water hydrology of the basin under past, present, and future conditions of development. An analysis of conditions in the basin prior to large-scale ground-water development indicates that net recharge equaled 9.23 cubic feet per second and occurred as subsurface flow to the eastern part of the basin and infiltration of rain, direct runoff, and minor streamflows. Net predevelopment discharge equaled 9.23 cubic feet per second and occurred as aquifer discharge to the San Benito River. The 9.23 cubic feet per second of predevelopment recharge is considered to be perennial recharge to the basin. Large-scale ground-water development occurred in the area during the period 1945-68 and caused water levels to decline throughout most of the basin. Progressive depletion of aquifer storage during this period changed the San Benito River from a gaining (perennial) stream to a losing stream along most of its reach in the basin area. Net discharge from the basin during the period 1945-68 averaged 18.10 cubic feet per second. Of this amount 17.82 cubic feet per second occurred as pumpage from wells, and 0.28 cubic foot per second occurred as basin discharge to the San Benito River. Net recharge to the basin during the same period averaged 13.57 cubic feet per second. Of this amount 4.34 cubic feet per second occurred as infiltration from the San Benito River and 9.23 cubic feet per second occurred as perennial recharge. Use of the calibrated mathematical model to simulate quantities of imported water entering the basin from the San Benito River indicates that water levels in San Juan Valley will stabilize or recover when additional recharge equals or exceeds 3,000 acre-feet per year.

California

Ground water in Dale Valley, New York

Dale Valley is a broad valley segment, enlarged by glacial erosion, at the headwaters of Little Tonawanda Creek near Warsaw , New York. A thin, shallow alluvial aquifer immediately underlies the valley floor but is little used. A deeper gravel aquifer, buried beneath many feet of lake deposits, is tapped by several industrial wells. A finite-difference digital model treated the deep aquifer as two-dimensional with recharge and discharge through a confining layer. It was calibrated by simulating (1) natural conditions, (2) an 18-day aquifer test, and (3) 91 days of well-field operation. Streamflow records and model simulations suggest that in moderately wet years such as 1974, a demand of 750 gallons per minute could be met by withdrawal from the creek and from the aquifer without excessive drawdown at production wells or existing domestic wells. With reasonable but unverified model adjustments to simulate an unusually dry year, the model predicts that a demand of 600 gallons per minute could be met from the same sources. Water high in chloride has migrated from bedrock into parts of the deep aquifer. Industrial pumpage, faults in the bedrock, and the natural flow system may be responsible. (Woodard-USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Geohydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in the carbonate rocks of the Valley Creek basin, eastern Chester County, Pennsylvania

Sixty-eight percent of the 22.6-square-mile Valley Creek basin is underlain by Cambrian and Ordovician limestone and dolomite. Ground water flows through a network of interconnected secondary openings; primary porosity is virtually nonexistent. Some of these openings have been enlarged by solution. Secondary porosity and permeability exhibit great spatial variability, and the yield and specific capacity of wells are highly variable. The number of water-bearing zones decreases with depth. Fifty percent of water-bearing zones are encountered within 100 feet of the land surface, and 81 percent are within 200 feet. Most ground-water flow in the Valley Creek basin is local and discharges to nearby streams. Ground-water discharge comprised an average of 76 percent of the flow of Valley Creek during 1983--87, including both natural ground- water discharge and quarry pumpage discharged to Valley Creek. Discharge from the Cedar Hollow quarry comprised 21 to 26 percent of the base flow of Valley Creek; the average was 23 percent. The average natural base flow of Valley Creek would be 8 percent lower if the quarry were not operating. Regional ground-water flow is to the northeast to the Schuylkill River. On the western side of the Valley Creek basin, the ground-water divide is 1/2 mile west of the surface-water divide. An estimated 0.75 million gallons per day of ground water flows from the adjacent West Valley Creek basn eastward into the Valley Creek basin. A ground-water divide is not present on the eastern side of the basin; the water table slopes gently eastward toward the Schuylkill River. On the northeaster side, an estimated 1.76 million gallons per day of ground water flows northeastward out of the basin to the Schuylkill River beneath the surface-water divide. On the southeaster side, an estimated 0.85 million gallons per day of ground water flows beneath the surface-water divide into the basin. Annual water budgets and an average water budget were calculated for 1983-87 for the 20.8-square-mile area bove the streamflow-gaging station. Annual precipitation for 1983-87 ranged from 40.61 to 56.55 inches and averaged 47.25 inches; annual streamflow ranged from 15.55 to 28.57 inches and averaged 22.31 inches; annual evapotranspiration ranged from 18.21 to 24.83 inches and averaged 22.90 inches; and annual recharge ranged from 15.89 to 26.84 inches and averaged 21.04 inches. The Valley Creek basin was modeled as a two-dimensional water-table aquifer. Recharge to, ground-water flow through, and discharge from the rocks of Chester valley were simulated. In order to include the natural hydrologic boundaries of the ground-water-flwo system, the 66.4-square-mile area between the Brandywine Creek and the Schuylkill River was modeled. The model was calibrated under stead-state conditions using avareage recharge and evapotranspiration rates. Aquifer hydraulic conductivity was estimated from specific-capacity and quifer-test data. The average (1983-87) annual water budget for hte Valley Creek basin was simualted. The effect of increased ground-water development on base flow and underflow was simulated by locating a hypothetical well field produceing 4 million gallons per day in different parts of the basin. Pumpage from a well field near surface-water divides would induce as much as an additional 1.41 inches per year of underflow from an adjacent surface-water basin. Pumpage from a well field near the center of the basin would affect base flow more than underflow. Increased seepage of ground water into quarries as a result of their expansion was simulated as increased withdrawal by pumping. A 100-percent increase in the pumping rate of the Cedar Hollow quarry, from 3.93 to 7.86 million gallons per day, owuld reduce the natural base flow of Valley Creek by 18 percent. However, the quarry pumpage would be discharged to Valley Creek, thereby increasing the base flow at the gaging station by

Pennsylvania

Hydrogeology, ground-water quality, and source of ground water causing water-quality changes in the Davis well field at Memphis, Tennessee

An investigation was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1992 to 1994 to collect and interpret hydrogeologic and water-quality data to determine the source of ground water causing water-quality changes in water from wells screened in the Memphis aquifer in the Davis well field at Memphis, Tennessee. Water-quality changes in aquifers used for water supply are of concern because these changes can indicate a potential for contamination of the aquifers by downward leakage from near-surface sources. The water-quality changes at the Davis well field were detected by Memphis Light, Gas and Water Division, which has periodically sampled and analyzed water from many of the 14 production wells since the well field began operation in 1971. Memphis Light, Gas and Water Division analyzed the water samples primarily for hardness, alkalinity, chloride, ulfate, and iron. Results of the e analy es and results of more recent (1992) analyse of water samples by the U.S. Geological Survey indicate that the quality of water from eight of the production wells has changed since the well field began operation. For example, from 1972 to 1991, hardness of water from one well has increased from 90 to 292 milligrams per liter (224 percent). The confining unit, which separates the fluvial deposits aquifer from the Memphis aquifer in the area of the well field, is relatively thick and contains many clay layers. However, a test hole drilled for one of five shallow wells installed in the alluvial aquifer in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain just west of the well field indicated that the confining unit separating the alluvial aquifer from the Memphis aquifer locally is absent. Differences in hydrauLic head between the alluvial and fluvial deposits aquifers and the Memphis aquifer favor downward leakage of ground water. Thus, the absence of the confining unit beneath the Mississippi Alluvial Plain just west of the well field provides a direct pathway for water in the alluvial aquifer to enter the Memphis aquifer. Comparison of selected water-quality properties and major inorganic and trace element constituent concentrations in samples from the alluvial, fluvial deposits, and Memphis aquifers indicates that the source of ground water causing waterquality changes at the Davis well field is the alluvial aquifer west of the well field . The presence of tritium and chlorofluorocarbons in water from wells screened in the Memphis aquifer in the western part of the well field indicates that relatively young (post-1940) water from the alluvial aquifer has entered the Memphis aquifer. NETPATH geochemical model code was used to mix waters from the alluvial aquifer with water from the Memphis aquifer using chloride as a conservative tracer. The resulting models indicated that a mixture containing 3 percent alluvial aquifer water mixed with 97 percent unaffected Memphis aquifer water would produce the chloride concentration measured in water from the Memphis aquifer well most affected by water-quality changes. NETPATH also was used to calculate mixing percentages of alluvial and Memphis aquifer Abstract waters based on changes in the concentrations of selected dissolved major inorganic and trace element constituents that define the dominant reactions that occur during mixing. These models indicated that a mixture containing 18 percent alluvial aquifer water and 82 percent unaffected Memphis aquifer water would produce the major constituent and trace element concentrations measured in water from the Memphis aquifer well most affected by water-quality changes. However, these model simulations predicted higher dissolved methane concentrations than were measured in water samples from the Memphis aquifer wells.

Tennessee

Simulation of Regional Ground-Water Flow in the Suwannee River Basin, Northern Florida and Southern Georgia

The Suwannee River Basin covers a total of nearly 9,950 square miles in north-central Florida and southern Georgia. In Florida, the Suwannee River Basin accounts for 4,250 square miles of north-central Florida. Evaluating the impacts of increased development in the Suwannee River Basin requires a quantitative understanding of the boundary conditions, hydrogeologic framework and hydraulic properties of the Floridan aquifer system, and the dynamics of water exchanges between the Suwannee River and its tributaries and the Floridan aquifer system. Major rivers within the Suwannee River Basin are the Suwannee, Santa Fe, Alapaha, and Withlacoochee. Four rivers west of the Suwannee River are the Aucilla, the Econfina, the Fenholloway, and the Steinhatchee; all drain to the Gulf of Mexico. Perhaps the most notable aspect of the surface-water hydrology of the study area is that large areas east of the Suwannee River are devoid of channelized, surface drainage; consequently, most of the drainage occurs through the subsurface. The ground-water flow system underlying the study area plays a critical role in the overall hydrology of this region of Florida because of the dominance of subsurface drain-age, and because ground-water flow sustains the flow of the rivers and springs. Three principal hydrogeologic units are present in the study area: the surficial aquifer system, the intermediate aquifer system, and the Floridan aquifer system. The surficial aquifer system principally consists of unconsoli-dated to poorly indurated siliciclastic deposits. The intermediate aquifer system, which contains the intermediate confining unit, lies below the surficial aquifer system (where present), and generally consists of fine-grained, uncon-solidated deposits of quartz sand, silt, and clay with interbedded limestone of Miocene age. Regionally, the intermediate aquifer system and intermediate con-fining unit act as a confining unit that restricts the exchange of water between the over-lying surficial and underlying Upper Floridan aquifers. The Upper Floridan aquifer is present throughout the study area and is extremely permeable and typically capable of transmitting large volumes of water. This high permeability largely is due to the widening of fractures and formation of conduits within the aquifer through dissolu-tion of the limestone by infiltrating water. This process has also produced numerous karst features such as springs, sinking streams, and sinkholes. A model of the Upper Floridan aquifer was created to better understand the ground-water system and to provide resource managers a tool to evaluate ground-water and surface-water interactions in the Suwannee River Basin. The model was developed to simulate a single Upper Floridan aquifer layer. Recharge datasets were developed to represent a net flux of water to the top of the aquifer or the water table during a period when the system was assumed to be under steady-state conditions (September 1990). A potentiometric-surface map representing water levels during September 1990 was prepared for the Suwannee River Water Management District (SRWMD), and the heads from those wells were used for calibration of the model. Additionally, flows at gaging sites for the Suwannee, Alapaha, Withlacoochee, Santa Fe, Fenholloway, Aucilla, Ecofina, and Steinhatchee Rivers were used during the calibration process to compare to model computed flows. Flows at seven first-magnitude springs selected by the SRWMD also were used to calibrate the model. Calibration criterion for matching potentiometric heads was to attain an absolute residual mean error of 5 percent or less of the head gradient of the system which would be about 5 feet. An absolute residual mean error of 4.79 feet was attained for final calibration. Calibration criterion for matching streamflow was based on the quality of measurements made in the field. All measurements used were rated ?good,? so the desire was for simulated values to be wi

Florida, Georgia

Simulation of ground-water flow in an unconfined sand and gravel aquifer at Marathon, Cortland County, New York

The Village of Marathon, in Cortland County, N.Y., has three municipal wells that tap a relatively thin (25 to 40 feet thick) and narrow (less than 0.25 mile wide) unconfined sand and gravel aquifer in the Tioughnioga River valley. Only one of the wells is in use because water from one well has been contaminated by petroleum chemicals from a leaking storage tank, and water from the other well contains high concentrations of manganese. The operating well pumps about 0.1 million gallons per day and supplies about 1,000 people. A three-dimensional, finite-difference ground-water-flow model was used to (1) compute hydraulic heads in the aquifer under steady-state conditions, (2) develop a water budget, and (3) delineate the areas contributing recharge to two simulated wells that represent two of the municipal wells: one 57 feet east of the Tioughnioga River, the other 4,000 feet to the south and 75 feet from a man-made pond. The water budget for simulated long-term average, steady-state conditions with two simulated pumping wells indicates that the principal sources of recharge to the unconfined aquifer are unchanneled runoff and ground-water inflow from the uplands (41 percent of total recharge), precipitation that falls directly on the aquifer (34 percent), and stream leakage (23 percent). Only 2 percent of the recharge to the aquifer is from ground-water underflow into the northern end of the modeled area. Most of the simulated groundwater discharge from the modeled area (78 percent of total discharge) is to the Tioughnioga River; the rest discharges to the two simulated wells (19 percent) and as underflow at the southern end of the modeled area (3 percent). Results of a particle-tracking analysis indicate that the aquifer contributing area of the northern (simulated) well is 0.10 mile wide and 0.15 mile long and encompasses 0.015 square miles; the contributing area of the southern (simulated) well is 0.20 mile wide and 0.11 mile long and encompasses 0.022 square miles. The average traveltime of ground water from the valley wall to either simulated well is about 1.5 years, calculated on the basis of an assumed aquifer porosity of 0.3. The flowpath analysis indicates that both contributing areas contain surface-water sources of recharge; the Tioughnioga River and Hunts Creek contribute water to the northern well, and a pond and a small tributary contribute water to the southern well. Ground-water temperature in an observation well between the Tioughnioga River and the municipal well fluctuated several degrees Fahrenheit in response to pumping of the municipal well. This temperature fluctuation, in conjunction with the pumping well causing a ground-water gradient from the Tioughnioga River to the pumping well (ground-water levels in the pumping well were generally greater than 3 ft lower than that of the Tioughnioga River), indicate that there is a hydraulic connection between the river and aquifer at this site.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Hydrology of Cache Valley, Cache County, Utah, and adjacent part of Idaho, with emphasis on simulation of ground-water flow

A hydrologic investigation of Cache Valley was done to better understand the ground-water system in unconsolidated basin-fill deposits and the interaction between ground water and surface water. Ground-water recharge occurs by infiltration of precipitation and unconsumed irrigation water, seepage from canals and streams, and subsurface inflow from adjacent consolidated rock and adjacent unconsolidated basin-fill deposit ground-water systems. Ground-water discharge occurs as seepage to streams and reservoirs, spring discharge, evapotranspiration, and withdrawal from wells. Water levels declined during 1984-90. Less-than-average precipitation during 1987-90 and increased pumping from irrigation and public-supply wells contributed to the declines. A ground-water-flow model was used to simulate flow in the unconsolidated basin-fill deposits. Data primarily from 1969 were used to calibrate the model to steady-state conditions. Transient-state calibration was done by simulating ground-water conditions on a yearly basis for 1982-90. A hypothetical simulation in which the dry conditions of 1990 were continued for 5 years projected an average lO-foot water-level decline between Richmond and Hyrum. When increased pumpage was simulated by adding three well fields, each pumping 10 cubic feet per second, in the Logan, Smithfield, and College Ward areas, water-level declines greater than 10 feet were projected in most of the southeastern part of the valley and discharge from springs and seepage to streams and reservoirs decreased.

Idaho, Utah

Assessment of channel changes, model of historical floods, and effects of backwater on flood stage, and flood mitigation alternatives for the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas

In cooperation with the City of Wichita Falls, the U.S. Geological Survey assessed channel changes on the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas, and modeled historical floods to investigate possible causes and potential mitigation alternatives to higher flood stages in recent (2007 and 2008) floods. Extreme flooding occurred on the Wichita River on June 30, 2007, inundating 167 homes in Wichita Falls. Although a record flood stage was reached in June 2007, the peak discharge was much less than some historical floods at Wichita Falls. Streamflow and stage data from two gages on the Wichita River and one on Holliday Creek were used to assess the interaction of the two streams. Changes in the Wichita River channel were evaluated using historical aerial and ground photography, comparison of recent and historical cross sections, and comparison of channel roughness coefficients with those from earlier studies. The floods of 2007 and 2008 were modeled using a one-dimensional step-backwater model. Calibrated channel roughness was larger for the 2007 flood compared to the 2008 flood, and the 2007 flood peaked about 4 feet higher than the 2008 flood. Calibration of the 1941 flood yielded a channel roughness coefficient (Manning's n ) of 0.030, which represents a fairly clean natural channel. The step-backwater model was also used to evaluate the following potential mitigation alternatives: (1) increasing the capacity of the bypass channel near River Road in Wichita Falls, Texas; (2) removal of obstructions near the Scott Avenue and Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard bridges in Wichita Falls, Texas; (3) widening of aggraded channel banks in the reach between Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard and River Road; and (4) reducing channel bank and overbank roughness. Reductions in water-surface elevations ranged from 0.1 foot to as much as 3.0 feet for the different mitigation alternatives. The effects of implementing a combination of different flood-mitigation alternatives were not investigated.

Texas

Hydrogeology and simulated effects of ground-water withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system in Lake County and in the Ocala National Forest and vicinity, north-central Florida

The hydrogeology of Lake County and the Ocala National Forest in north-central Florida was evaluated (1995-2000), and a ground-water flow model was developed and calibrated to simulate the effects of both present day and future ground-water withdrawals in these areas and the surrounding vicinity. A predictive model simulation was performed to determine the effects of projected 2020 ground-water withdrawals on the water levels and flows in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems. The principal water-bearing units in Lake County and the Ocala National Forest are the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems. The two aquifer systems generally are separated by the intermediate confining unit, which contains beds of lower permeability sediments that confine the water in the Florida aquifer system. The Floridan aquifer system has two major water-bearing zones (the Upper Floridan aquifer and the Lower Floridan aquifer), which generally are separated by one or two less-permeable confining units. The Floridan aquifer system is the major source of ground water in the study area. In 1998, ground-water withdrawals totaled about 115 million gallons per day in Lake County and 5.7 million gallons per day in the Ocala National Forest. Of the total ground water pumped in Lake County in 1998, nearly 50 percent was used for agricultural purposes, more than 40 percent for municipal, domestic, and recreation supplies, and less than 10 percent for commercial and industrial purposes. Fluctuations of lake stages, surficial and Floridan aquifer system water levels, and Upper Floridan aquifer springflows in the study area are highly related to cycles and distribution of rainfall. Long-term hydrographs for 9 lakes, 8 surficial aquifer system and Upper Floridan aquifer wells, and 23 Upper Floridan aquifer springs show the most significant increases in water levels and springflows following consecutive years with above-average rainfall, and significant decreases following consecutive years with below-average rainfall. Long-term (1940-2000) hydrographs of lake and ground-water levels and springflow show a slight downward trend; however, after the early 1960's, this downward trend generally is more pronounced, which corresponds with accumulating rainfall deficits and increased development. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional ground-water flow model MODFLOW-2000 was used to simulate ground-water flow in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in Lake County, the Ocala National Forest, and adjacent areas. A steady-state calibration to average 1998 conditions was facilitated by using the inverse modeling capabilities of MODFLOW-2000. Values of hydrologic properties from the calibrated model were in reasonably close agreement with independently estimated values and results from previous modeling studies. The calibrated model generally produced simulated water levels and flows in reasonably close agreement with measured values and was used to simulate the hydrologic effects of projected 2020 conditions. Ground-water withdrawals in the model area have been projected to increase from 470 million gallons per day in 1998 to 704 million gallons per day in 2020. Significant drawdowns were simulated in Lake County from average 1998 to projected 2020 conditions: the average and maximum drawdowns, respectively, were 0.5 and 5.7 feet in the surficial aquifer system, 1.1 and 7.6 feet in the Upper Floridan aquifer, and 1.4 and 4.3 feet in the Lower Floridan aquifer. The largest drawdowns in Lake County were simulated in the southeastern corner of the County and in the vicinities of Clermont and Mount Dora. Closed-basin lakes and wetlands are more likely to be affected by future pumping in these large drawdown areas, as opposed to other areas of Lake County. However, within the Ocala National Forest, drawdowns were relatively small: the average and maximum drawdowns, respectively, were 0.1 and 1.0 feet in the surficial aquifer system, 0.2 and

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Documentation of a digital spatial data base for hydrologic investigations, Broward County, Florida

Geographic information systems have become an important tool in planning for the protection and development of natural resources, including ground water and surface water. A digital spatial data base consisting of 18 data layers that can be accessed by a geographic information system was developed for Broward County, Florida. Five computer programs, including one that can be used to create documentation files for each data layer and four that can be used to create data layers from data files not already in geographic information system format, were also developed. Four types of data layers have been developed. Data layers for manmade features include major roads, municipal boundaries, the public land-survey section grid, land use, and underground storage tank facilities. The data layer for topographic features consists of surveyed point land-surface elevations. Data layers for hydrologic features include surface-water and rainfall data-collection stations, surface-water bodies, water-control district boundaries, and water-management basins. Data layers for hydrogeologic features include soil associations, transmissivity polygons, hydrogeologic unit depths, and a finite-difference model grid for south-central Broward County. Each data layer is documented as to the extent of the features, number of features, scale, data sources, and a description of the attribute tables where applicable.

Florida

Hydrology and geochemistry of a slag-affected aquifer and chemical characteristics of slag-affected ground water, northwestern Indiana and northeastern Illinois

Slag is a by-product of steel manufacturing and a ubiquitous fill material in northwestern Indiana. Ground water associated with slag deposits generally is characterized by high pH and elevated concentrations of many inorganic water-quality constituents. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Environmental Management, conducted a study in northwestern Indiana from June 1995 to September 1996 to improve understanding of the effects of slag deposits on the water quality of a glacial-outwash aquifer. The Bairstow Landfill, a slag-fill deposit overlying the Calumet aquifer near Hammond, Indiana, was studied to represent conditions in slag-deposit settings that are common in northwestern Indiana. Ground water from 10 observation wells, located in four nests at the site, and surface water from the adjacent Lake George were analyzed for values of field-measured parameters and concentrations of major ions, nutrients, trace elements, and bulk properties. Solid-phase samples of slag and aquifer sediment collected during drilling were examined with X-ray diffraction and geochemical digestion and analysis. Concentrations of calcium, potassium, sodium, and sulfate were highest in wells screened partly or fully in slag. Potassium concentrations in ground water ranged from 2.9 to 120 milligrams per liter (mg/L), were highest in water from slag deposits, and decreased with depth. The highest concentrations for aluminum, barium, molybdenum, nickel, and selenium were in water from the slag. Silica concentrations were highest in wells screened directly beneath the slag-aquifer interface, and magnesium concentrations were highest in intermediate and deep aquifer wells. Silica concentrations in shallow and intermediate aquifer wells ranged from 27 to 41 mg/L and were about 10 times greater than those in water from slag deposits. The highest concentrations for chromium, lead, and zinc were in ground water from immediately below the slag-aquifer interface. The solid-phase analyses indicated that calcite, dolomite, and quartz generally were present throughout the slag-aquifer system; barian celestite, cristobalite, manganese-bearing calcite, and minrecordite were present in fewer samples. Trace elements that are liberated from the slag may be incorporated as impurities during precipitation of major minerals, sorbed onto clays and other grainsize fractions not analyzed as part of this study, or present in low-abundance minerals that were not detected by the X-ray analysis. Mass-balance and speciation programs were used to identify geochemical processes that may be occurring as water infiltrates through the slag, flows into the aquifer, and discharges into Lake George. The geochemical models indicate that precipitation of calcite may be occurring where slag-affected water enters the aquifer. Models also indicate that dolomite precipitation and clay-mineral dissolution may be occurring at the slag-aquifer interface; however, dolomite precipitation is generally believed to require geologically long time periods. Silica may be dissolving where slag-affected ground water enters the aquifer and may be precipitating where slag-affected ground water discharges to the lakebed of Lake George. In addition to the site-specific study, a statistical analysis of regional water quality was done to compare ground water in wells affected and unaffected by slag. When com-pared to wells in background locations in the Calumet aquifer, wells screened in slag across northwestern Indiana and northeastern Illinois generally had relatively higher pH and specific-conductance values and relatively higher concentrations of alkalinity, dissolved solids, suspended solids, total organic carbon, calcium, potassium, sodium, chloride, aluminum, barium, and possibly magnesium, sulfate, chromium, cobalt, copper, cyanide, manganese, mercury, nickel, and vanadium. When compared to wells in slag and wells in background locations, ground water from immediately beneath or immediately downgradient from slag had relatively high concentrations of arsenic and silica. Water-quality characteristics in ground water at the Bairstow Landfill were similar to water-quality characteristics in slag-contact and slag-affected wells throughout northwestern Indiana.

Illinois, Indiana

Hydrogeology and simulation of source areas of water to production wells in a colluvium-mantled carbonate-bedrock aquifer near Shippensburg, Cumberland and Franklin Counties, Pennsylvania

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Shippensburg Borough Authority to evaluate the source areas of water to production wells in a colluvium-mantled carbonate-bedrock aquifer in Cumberland and Franklin Counties, Pa. The areal extent of the zone of contribution was simulated for three production wells near Shippensburg, Pa. by use of a ground-water-flow model. A 111-square-mile area was selected as the model area and includes areas of the South Mountain Section and the Great Valley Section of the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province. Within the model area, the geologic units in the South Mountain area are predominantly metamorphic rocks and the geologic units in the Great Valley are predominantly carbonate rocks. Hydrologic and geologic information were compiled to establish a conceptual model of ground-water flow. Characteristics of aquifer materials were determined, and streamflow and water levels were measured. Streamflow measurements in November 2003 showed all streams lost water as they flowed from South Mountain over the colluvium-mantled carbonate aquifer into the Great Valley. Some streams lost more than 1 cubic foot per second to the aquifer in this area. The Shippensburg Borough Authority owns three production wells in the model area. Two wells, Cu 969 and Fr 823, are currently (2004) used as production wells and produce 500,000 and 800,000 gallons per day, respectively. Well Cu 970 is intended to be brought on line as a production well in the future. Water levels were measured in 43 wells to use for model calibration. Water-level fluctuations and geophysical logs indicated confined conditions in well Cu 970. Ground-water flow was simulated with a model that consisted of two vertical layers, with five zones in each layer. The units were hydrostratigraphic units that initially were based on geologic formations, but boundaries were adjusted during model calibration. Model calibration resulted in a root mean square error of 9.8 feet. A parameter-estimation package was used during model calibration to estimate three parameters. The parameter estimation resulted in a value of 233 feet per day for horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the highly fractured carbonate rocks and sandy colluvium in layer 1; 3.97 feet per day for horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the ridge-forming unit in layer 1; and a value of 1.73 for horizontal anisotropy in both layers. The calibrated model was used to delineate the areal extent of the zone of contribution for wells Cu 969 and Fr 823. Although well Cu 970 is not currently (2004) being used, the areal extent of its zone of contribution also was simulated without additional model calibration. The shape of the areal extent of the zone of contribution was similar for each well and included an area that extended from the well southwest along the Tomstown Formation, and then extended southeast into the metamorphic rocks of South Mountain. The contributing areas from the watersheds of losing streams were also delineated because losing stream reaches bisect the areal extent of the zones of contribution. Spatial uncertainty of the areal extent of the zone of contribution was illustrated using a Monte-Carlo analysis. The model was run 1,000 times using randomly generated parameter sets that were normally distributed within the confidence interval around the optimal values for the three estimated parameters. The model converged and had a reasonable water budget for 980 of the model runs. For each of those 980 model runs, the recharge area was determined, and the results for all runs were compiled and contoured. The results of the Monte-Carlo analysis were compared to the results of the deterministic model, illustrating that the deterministic model has the greatest certainty in the area closest to each well in the Tomstown Formation. The areas farther from the well, upgradient, and in the metamorphic rocks have a higher degree

Pennsylvania

Simulated interactions between the proposed Narrows Reservoir and the water-table aquifer along the South Platte River, Morgan County, Colorado

A computer model, including a ground-water-flow component and a mass balance reservoir-operations component, was developed to simulate the proposed Narrows Reservoir and the adjacent alluvial aquifer of the South Platte River, Morgan County, Colo. This model, using a weekly time step, simulated the transient interactions of these two systems for an initial-fill condition and general-operational condition. A sensitivity analysis was made to test the effects of possible errors in the description of aquifer characteristics on the model results. The initial-fill simulation indicated that to fill the reservoir when hydraulic connection between the surface-water system and the aquifer is simulated would take 2 additional years than if no connection was assumed. Simulated ground-water return flow to the river downstream of the proposed dam was about 85 percent of the estimated maximum values, computed under steady-state conditions in an earlier study. The general operation simulation indicated that during the period of lowest reservoir contents the aquifer provided about 80,000 acre-feet of recoverable storage to the reservoir 's capacity. Average return flow was only about 70 percent of the estimated maximum values computed in the earlier, steady-state analysis. Monthly ground-water outflow from the reservoir to the aquifer ranged from 55,200 to -10,400 acre-feet. Parameters tested for sensitivity, in order of decreasing sensitivity, were: Hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, hydraulic connection between reservoir and aquifer, local recharge, boundary conditions, and dam permeability. The probable error in the parameters tested would not seem to warrant significant new data collection. (USGS)

Colorado

Simulation of ground-water flow and areas contributing recharge to extraction wells at the Drake Chemical Superfund Site, City of Lock Haven and Castanea Township, Clinton County, Pennsylvania

Extensive remediation of the Drake Chemical Superfund Site has been ongoing since 1983. Contaminated soils were excavated and incinerated on site between 1996 and 1999. After 1999, remedial efforts focused on contaminated ground water. A ground-water remediation system was started in November 2000. The source area of the contaminated ground water was assumed to be the zone 1 area on the Drake Chemical site. The remedial system was designed to capture ground water migrating from zone 1. Also, the remediation system was designed to pump and treat the water in an anoxic environment and re-infiltrate the treated water underground through an infiltration gallery that is hydrologically downgradient of the extraction wells. A numerical ground-water flow model of the surrounding region was constructed to simulate the areas contributing recharge to remedial extraction wells installed on the Drake Chemical site. The three-dimensional numerical flow model was calibrated using the parameter-estimation process in MODFLOW-2000. The model included three layers that represented three poorly sorted alluvial sediment units that were characterized from geologic well and boring logs. Steady-state ground-water flow was simulated to estimate the areas contributing recharge to three extraction wells for three different pumping scenarios--all wells pumping at 2 gallons per minute, at approximately 5 gallons per minute, and at 8 gallons per minute. Simulation results showed the contributing areas to the three extraction wells encompassed 92 percent of zone 1 at a pumping rate of approximately 5 gallons per minute. The contributing areas did not include a very small area in the southwestern part of zone 1 when the three extraction wells were pumped at approximately 5 gallons per minute. Pumping from a fourth extraction well in that area was discontinued early in the operation of the remediation system because the ground water in that area met performance standards. The areas contributing recharge to the three extraction wells did encompass zone 1 at a pumping rate of 8 gallons per minute. At pumping rates of 2 gallons per minute, the contributing areas for the three extraction wells did not encompass zone 1.

Pennsylvania

Initial Results from a Study of Climatic Changes and the Effect on Wild Sheep Habitat in Selected Study Areas of Alaska

Climate change theorists have projected striking changes in local weather on earth due to increases in temperature. These predicted changes may cause melting glaciers and ice caps, rising sea levels, increasing desertification and other environmental changes which seem likely to affect presumed indicator species as harbingers of more significant changes. Wild sheep, even though they are one of the more successful mammalian taxa since Pleistocene times, exhibit a suite of adaptations to glacier driven environments which may be presumed to render them sensitive to environmental changes. The authors began investigation with these assumptions by comparing changes, as determined by satellite imagery, in glacier extent in our study areas in Denali National Park, Alaska, during the last 30 years. Our findings showed the extent of glacial retreat in Alaska during this time period was approximately 40-50 percent as measured by ablation zone and retreat of terminal moraines. During the first half of this 30-year period, Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) populations were stable at historically recorded highs. In the early to mid-1990s, Dall sheep populations in Alaska declined from an historical estimated high of 75,000 sheep to the presently estimated 40-50,000. The declines seemed to be weather related, on the basis of the presumption that lamb survival rates are primarily weather-mediated in Alaska. Changes in local weather appear, at this point, to be correlated with oscillation in the Pacific Current in the Northern Pacific ocean. Of course, changes in local weather affect forage abundance and quality seasonally. In investigating a possible linkage of weather to seasonal forage abundance and quality, we also investigated changes in snow and ice extent and distribution, as well as increased water runoff associated with permafrost and depleted glaciers. Databases were assembled from a wide variety of remotely sensed satellite data, ground-based observations, and historical data bases relating to Dall sheep habitats in selected study areas. Alaska's sheep habitats are typified by long, narrow bands of mountainous uplifts generally arrayed west-to-east, and perpendicular to prevailing south-to-north weather-front movements. Classic Dall sheep habitat occurs on snow-shadowed slopes within these narrow mountainous habitats. On the basis of these data, we offer an explanatory hypothesis relating Dall sheep welfare to weather and climate-influenced nutrition and a monitoring scheme, which should produce data sufficient to test the robustness of this hypothesis. If correlated with population changes, the methods used in our comparative observations may provide long-term monitoring tools for wildlife managers and be applicable in other widely-dispersed wild sheep habitats. If no significant correlations emerge from our modeling exercises, the notion that wild sheep are a sufficiently sensitive species to be seen as an indicator species will have to be reexamined.

Open-File Report

Site Selection for a Deep Monitor Well, Kualapuu, Molokai, Hawaii

Management of the ground-water resources near Kualapuu on the island of Molokai, Hawaii, is hindered by the uncertainty in the vertical salinity structure in the aquifer. In the State of Hawaii, vertical profiles of ground-water salinity are commonly obtained from deep monitor wells, and these profiles are used to estimate the thicknesses of the freshwater part of the ground-water flow system and the freshwater-saltwater transition zone. Information from a deep monitor well would improve the understanding of the ground-water flow system and the ability to effectively manage the ground-water resources near Kualapuu; however, as of mid-1999 no deep monitor wells had been drilled on the island of Molokai. Selection of an appropriate site for drilling a deep monitor well in the Kualapuu area depends partly on where future ground-water development may occur. Simulations using an areally two-dimensional, steady-state, sharp-interface ground-water flow model previously developed for the island of Molokai, Hawaii, indicate that the southeastern part of the Kualapuu area is a possible area of future ground-water development because (1) withdrawals from this area have a small effect on water levels at existing wells in the Kualapuu area (relative to effects from withdrawals in other parts of the Kualapuu area that are outside of the dike complex), and (2) model-calculated water levels in this part of the Kualapuu area are high relative to water levels in other parts of the Kualapuu area that are outside of the dike complex. Additional site-selection criteria include (1) ground-water level, (2) ground-surface altitude, (3) land classification, ownership, and accessibility, (4) geology, (5) locations of existing production wells, and (6) historical ground-water quality information. A deep monitor well in the Kualapuu area will likely be most useful for management purposes if it is located (1) in the vicinity of future ground-water development, (2) in an area where water levels are between about 8 and 12 feet above sea level, (3) at a ground-surface altitude that is between about 1,000 and 1,100 feet, (4) on government-owned land, (5) outside of the dike complex and as far from known volcanic vents as possible, (6) at least about 1,000 feet from, but within the same hydrogeologic setting as, existing or proposed production wells, and (7) east of well 0902-01. A viable area for drilling a deep monitor well is about a half mile southeast of existing wells 0801-01 to -03 and a half mile north of a known volcanic vent, Puu Luahine.

Water-Resources Investigations Report