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Estimation of alewife biomass in Lake Michigan, 1967-1978

The buildup of salmonid populations in Lake Michigan through annual stockings of hatchery-reared fish may become limited by the quantity of forage fish, mainly alewives Alosa pseudoharengus, available for food. As a part of a continuing examination of salmonid predator-prey relations in Lake Michigan, we traced changes in alewife biomass estimated from bottom-trawl surveys conducted in late October and early November 1967–1978. Weight of adult alewives trawled per 0.5 hectare of bottom (10-minute drag) at 16 depths along eight transects between 1973 and 1977 formed a skewed distribution: 72 of 464 drags caught no alewives; 89 drags caught less than 1 kg; and 2 drags caught more than 100 kg (maximum 159 kg). Analysis of variance in normalized catch per tow indicated highly significant differences between the main effects of years and depths, and highly significant differences in the interactions of years and transects, years and depths, and transects and depths. Five geographic and depth strata, formed by combining parts of transects wherein mean catch rate did not differ significantly, were the basis for calculating annual estimates of adult alewife biomass (with 90% confidence intervals). Estimated biomass of alewives (±90% confidence limits) in Lake Michigan proper (Green Bay and Grand Traverse Bay excluded) rose gradually from 46,000 (±9,000) t in 1967 to 114,000 (±17,000) t in 1973, declined to 45,000 (±8,000) t in 1977, and rose to 77,000 (±19,000) t in 1978.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

Applied cartographic communication: map symbolization for atlases.

A detailed investigation of the symbolization used on general-purpose atlas reference maps. It indicates how theories of cartographic communication can be put into practice. Two major points emerge. First, that a logical scheme can be constructed from existing cartographic research and applied to an analysis of the choice of symbolization on a map. Second, the same structure appears to allow the cartographer to specify symbolization as a part of map design. An introductory review of cartographic communication is followed by an analysis of selected maps' usage of point, area and line symbols, boundaries, text and colour usage.-after Author

Cartographica: The International Journal for Geogr

From ecological test site to geographic information system: lessons for the 1980's

Geographic information systems were common elements in two kinds of interdisciplinary regional demonstration projects in the 1970's. Ecological test sits attempted to provide for more efficient remote-sensing data delivery for regional environmental management. Regional environmental systems analysis attempted to formally describe and model the interacting regional social and environmental processes, including the resource-use decision making process. Lessons for the 1980's are drawn from recent evaluations and assessments of these programs, focusing on cost, rates of system development and technology transfer, program coordination, integrative analysis capability, and the involvement of system users and decision makers.

Pecora VII Symposium

The spatial scale of biotic change in Chihuahuan Desert fish assemblages

1. We examined riverine desert fish assemblages in the Chihuahuan Desert, USA at multiple spatial scales of similarity to assess long-term changes to assemblage distinctiveness, identify individual species responsible for changes, and determine the importance of geographic context and species resolution in interpreting patterns of change. 2. We used a well-documented historical data set on fish distribution and abundance, and recent collections of fishes that provided a paired analytical design across 36 localities spanning nearly three decades of time. Patterns of faunal homogenization and differentiation were assessed at basin-wide, sub-basin and river-reach scales with species occurrence and relative abundance data. Individual species responses were examined to identify the drivers of assemblage change across time. 3. Patterns of similarity varied across spatial scales and produced seemingly incongruous trends in assemblage similarity across time. Patterns of assemblage distinctiveness depended on the spatial extent of the analyses, the geographical structuring of the fish assemblages, and whether occurrence or relative abundance data were used. These dependencies led to interesting and conflicting patterns of homogenization and differentiation. The Rio Grande sub-basin showed strong homogenization with convergence between upstream and downstream reaches that corresponded to declining water quality and quantity from the Rio Conchos in Mexico. In contrast, the Pecos River sub-basin showed strong differentiation between upstream and downstream reaches that corresponded to the successful colonization and spread of the non-native gulf killifish (Fundulus grandis) in the highly degraded upper reach. Spatial variability in fish assemblages and their degree of change from historical conditions were largely dependent on anthropogenic modifications to the flow regime and variability in the success of invasive gulf killifish in the basin. 4. The use of species occurrence or abundance data, and the spatial scale of analysis are crucial choices in studies of faunal homogenization and differentiation, and we have demonstrated how these choices lead to variable results for our study system. Our multi-scale approach and examination of individual species responses identified the ultimate drivers of these differences and illustrated the importance of scale-dependent effects and geographical context on patterns of assemblage distinctiveness, especially with regard to species invasion, species loss and abundance shifts.

Texas

Simulated groundwater flow paths, travel time, and advective transport of nitrogen in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, Barnegat Bay–Little Egg Harbor Watershed, New Jersey

Elevated concentrations of nitrogen in groundwater that discharges to surface-water bodies can degrade surface-water quality and habitats in the New Jersey Coastal Plain. An analysis of groundwater flow in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and deeper confined aquifers that underlie the Barnegat Bay–Little Egg Harbor (BB-LEH) watershed and estuary was conducted by using groundwater-flow simulation, in conjunction with a particle-tracking routine, to provide estimates of groundwater flow paths and travel times to streams and the BB-LEH estuary. Water-quality data from the Ambient Groundwater Quality Monitoring Network, a long-term monitoring network of wells distributed throughout New Jersey, were used to estimate the initial nitrogen concentration in recharge for five different land-use classes—agricultural cropland or pasture, agricultural orchard or vineyard, urban non-residential, urban residential, and undeveloped. Land use at the point of recharge within the watershed was determined using a geographic information system (GIS). Flow path starting locations were plotted on land-use maps for 1930, 1973, 1986, 1997, and 2002. Information on the land use at the time and location of recharge, time of travel to the discharge location, and the point of discharge were determined for each simulated flow path. Particle-tracking analysis provided the link from the point of recharge, along the particle flow path, to the point of discharge, and the particle travel time. The travel time of each simulated particle established the recharge year. Land use during the year of recharge was used to define the nitrogen concentration associated with each flow path. The recharge-weighted average nitrogen concentration for all flow paths that discharge to the Toms River upstream from streamflow-gaging station 01408500 or to the BB-LEH estuary was calculated. Groundwater input into the Barnegat Bay–Little Egg Harbor estuary from two main sources— indirect discharge from base flow to streams that eventually flow into the bay and groundwater discharge directly into the estuary and adjoining coastal wetlands— is summarized by quantity, travel time, and estimated nitrogen concentration. Simulated average groundwater discharge to streams in the watershed that flow into the BB-LEH estuary is approximately 400 million gallons per day. Particle-tracking results indicate that the travel time of 56 percent of this discharge is less than 7 years. Fourteen percent of the groundwater discharge to the streams in the BB-LEH watershed has a travel time of less than 7 years and originates in urban land. Analysis of flow-path simulations indicate that approximately 13 percent of the total groundwater flow through the study area discharges directly to the estuary and adjoining coastal wetlands (approximately 64 million gallons per day). The travel time of 19 percent of this discharge is less than 7 years. Ten percent of this discharge (1 percent of the total groundwater flow through the study area) originates in urban areas and has a travel time of less than 7 years. Groundwater that discharges to the streams that flow into the BB-LEH, in general, has shorter travel times, and a higher percentage of it originates in urban areas than does direct groundwater discharge to the Barnegat Bay–Little Egg Harbor estuary. The simulated average nitrogen concentration in groundwater that discharges to the Toms River, upstream from streamflow-gaging station 01408500 was computed and compared to summary concentrations determined from analysis of multiple surface-water samples. The nitrogen concentration in groundwater that discharges directly to the estuary and adjoining coastal wetlands is a current data gap. The particle tracking methodology used in this study provides an estimate of this concentration."

New Jersey

Origins and philosophy of building a temporal database to examine human transformation processes

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in partnership with the University of Maryland Baltimore County, is using historical maps and satellite images to map human-induced land transformations for the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. This work builds on an earlier effort that documented the historical urban development for the San Francisco Bay area. That effort used a geographic information system to compile a database that provided a visual and historical perspective of the urban growth experienced in the Bay area between 1850 and 1990. Historical overviews of urban development can be used to provide insights into the future. The Bay area work was inspired by the desire to draw upon the USGS's rich 100-year topographic map, and 20-year Landsat satellite data archives. A methodology was developed to combine the information from a variety of sources into an integrated, multi-scale, and multi-resolution dataset. Temporal urban mapping is used to examine past landscapes by incorporating historic maps, census statistics, and commerce records to generate a progressive geo-referenced representation of the past changes in the region. Contemporary analysis focuses on the use of remotely sensed data, existing digital land use data, digital census information, and a variety of Earth science infrastructure data, such as Digital Line Graphs, Digital Elevation Models, and key ancillary demographic information. The resulting database of temporal urban demographic changes provides an ideal source of test data and information for both urban geographers and global change research scientists.

San Francisco Bay

How does landscape structure influence catchment transit time across different geomorphic provinces?

Despite an increasing number of empirical investigations of catchment transit times (TTs), virtually all are based on individual catchments and there are few attempts to synthesize understanding across different geographical regions. Uniquely, this paper examines data from 55 catchments in five geomorphic provinces in northern temperate regions (Scotland, United States of America and Sweden). The objective is to understand how the role of catchment topography as a control on the TTs differs in contrasting geographical settings. Catchment inverse transit time proxies (ITTPs) were inferred by a simple metric of isotopic tracer damping, using the ratio of standard deviation of ?? 18 O in streamwater to the standard deviation of ?? 18 O in precipitation. Quantitative landscape analysis was undertaken to characterize the catchments according to hydrologically relevant topographic indices that could be readily determined from a digital terrain model (DTM). The nature of topographic controls on transit times varied markedly in different geomorphic regions. In steeper montane regions, there are stronger gravitational influences on hydraulic gradients and TTs tend to be lower in the steepest catchments. In provinces where terrain is more subdued, direct topographic control weakened; in particular, where flatter areas with less permeable soils give rise to overland flow and lower TTs. The steeper slopes within this flatter terrain appear to have a greater coverage of freely draining soils, which increase sub-surface flow, therefore increasing TTs. Quantitative landscape analysis proved a useful tool for intercatchment comparison. However, the critical influence of sub-surface permeability and connectivity may limit the transferability of predictive tools of hydrological function based on topographic parameters alone. Copyright ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes

Evaluating the effects of future climate change and elevated CO 2 on the water use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems of China

Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important variable used in climate change and hydrological studies in relation to how it links ecosystem carbon cycles and hydrological cycles together. However, obtaining reliable WUE results based on site-level flux data remains a great challenge when scaling up to larger regional zones. Biophysical, process-based ecosystem models are powerful tools to study WUE at large spatial and temporal scales. The Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change and elevated CO 2 concentrations on ecosystem-level WUE (defined as the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET)) in relation to terrestrial ecosystems in China for 2009–2099. Climate scenario data (IPCC SRES A2 and SRES B1) generated from the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) was used in the simulations. Seven simulations were implemented according to the assemblage of different elevated CO 2 concentrations scenarios and different climate change scenarios. Analysis suggests that (1) further elevated CO 2 concentrations will significantly enhance the WUE over China by the end of the twenty-first century, especially in forest areas; (2) effects of climate change on WUE will vary for different geographical regions in China with negative effects occurring primarily in southern regions and positive effects occurring primarily in high latitude and altitude regions (Tibetan Plateau); (3) WUE will maintain the current levels for 2009–2099 under the constant climate scenario (i.e. using mean climate condition of 1951–2006 and CO 2 concentrations of the 2008 level); and (4) WUE will decrease with the increase of water resource restriction (expressed as evaporation ratio) among different ecosystems.

Ecological Modelling

New geochemical tools for investigating resource and energy functions at deep-sea cold seeps using amino-acid δ15N in chemosymbiotic mussels (Bathymodiolus childressi)

In order to reconstruct the ecosystem structure of chemosynthetic environments in the fossil record, geochemical proxies must be developed. Here, we present a suite of novel compound-specific isotope parameters for tracing chemosynthetic production with a focus on understanding nitrogen dynamics in deep-sea cold seep environments. We examined the chemosymbiotic bivalve Bathymodiolus childressi from three geographically distinct seep sites on the NE Atlantic Margin and compared isotope data to non-chemosynthetic littoral mussels to test whether water depth, seep activity, and/or mussel bed size are linked to differences in chemosynthetic production. The bulk isotope analysis of carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N), and δ 15 N values of individual amino acids (δ 15 N AA ) in both gill and muscle tissues, as well as δ 15 N AA- derived parameters including trophic level (TL), baseline δ 15 N value (δ 15 N Phe ), and a microbial resynthesis index (Σ V ), were used to investigate specific geochemical signatures of chemosynthesis. Our results show that δ 15 N AA values provide a number of new proxies for relative reliance on chemosynthesis, including TL, ∑V, and both δ 15 N values and molar percentages (Gly/Glu mol% index) of specific AA. Together, these parameters suggested that relative chemoautotrophy is linked to both degree of venting from seeps and mussel bed size. Finally, we tested a Bayesian mixing model using diagnostic AA δ 15 N values, showing that percent contribution of chemoautotrophic versus heterotrophic production to seep mussel nutrition can be directly estimated from δ 15 N AA values. Our results demonstrate that δ 15 N AA analysis can provide a new set of geochemical tools to better understand mixotrophic ecosystem function and energetics, and suggest extension to the study of ancient chemosynthetic environments in the fossil record.

Geobiology

Land-Cover Trends of the Southern California Mountains Ecoregion

This report presents an assessment of land-use and land-cover (LU/LC) change in the Southern California Mountains ecoregion for the period 1973-2001. The Southern California Mountains is one of 84 Level-III ecoregions as defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Ecoregions have served as a spatial framework for environmental resource management, denoting areas that contain a geographically distinct assemblage of biotic and abiotic phenomena including geology, physiography, vegetation, climate, soils, land use, wildlife, and hydrology. The established Land Cover Trends methodology generates estimates of change for ecoregions using a probability sampling approach and change-detection analysis of thematic land-cover images derived from Landsat satellite imagery.

Scientific Investigations Report

Hydrogeology of Lower Amargosa Valley and groundwater discharge to the Amargosa Wild and Scenic River, Inyo and San Bernardino Counties, California, and adjacent areas in Nye and Clark Counties, Nevada

In 2009, Congress designated certain reaches of the Amargosa River in Inyo County, California between the town of Shoshone and Dumont Dunes as a Wild and Scenic River. As part of the management of the Amargosa Wild and Scenic River, the Bureau of Land Management cooperated with the U.S. Geological Survey to assess the surface and groundwater resources of the Tecopa basin. Groundwater is the primary source of water to the perennial reaches of the Amargosa River. The U.S. Geological Survey studied the surface and groundwater systems in the basin, and assessed the sources and volume of groundwater discharging into the perennial reaches of the Amargosa Wild and Scenic River. The springs within the Tecopa basin (and the greater Lower Amargosa Valley Hydrographic Area) can be generally grouped by spring type and geographic location. There are four types of groundwater discharge points in the Tecopa basin—regional carbonate-rock springs and seeps, Tecopa Hills springs and seeps, thermal springs and seeps, and Amargosa Canyon hillslope springs and seeps. Results of chemical analysis indicate that water from all of these springs in the Lower Amargosa Valley and particularly in the Tecopa basin, is sourced in the carbonate-rock aquifer, with a local component of recharge. Groundwater is recharged in the Spring Mountains and moves through and around the Nopah and Resting Spring Ranges and into the Tecopa basin. A small (less than 1 cubic foot per second [ft 3 /s] or 500 acre‑feet per year) component of flow from the Amargosa Desert moves through the river channel alluvium and basin fill from the north. The location and type of spring appear to be controlled by the geology and geologic structure of the Lower Amargosa Valley. The regional springs (such as Shoshone and Borax Springs) and associated seeps tend to occur along the west side of the basin whereas other carbonate-rock aquifer springs discharge from adjacent mountain ranges, such as the Resting Spring Range, and as a result of low-permeability barriers, such as the Tecopa Hills. The thermal springs and seeps discharge from an area near the town of Tecopa, California. The Amargosa Canyon hillslope springs and seeps discharge directly into the river. Salt-crusted soils adjacent to the river indicate additional areas of diffuse discharge where groundwater is being evaporated. Perennial flow in the main channel of the Amargosa River appears to originate in an area of thermal springs near Tecopa. Persistent groundwater-fed pools begin to appear along the river channel just to the south of the Tecopa Hills. Flow between these pools is evident, but difficult to measure. During the synoptic seepage measurement survey in February 2014, flow in the Amargosa River at the Tecopa streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey site 10251300, Amargosa River at Tecopa, California) was approximately 1 ft 3 /s. Just to the south of the Tecopa streamgage, a line of cooler water springs (the Amargosa Canyon hillslope springs) emerges east of the river channel and continues for approximately 1 mile along the Amargosa Canyon wall. At the end of the spring reach, the flow in the river increased to just over 4 ft 3 /s. Flow then decreased to approximately 3 ft 3 /s at the confluence of Willow Creek, approximately 3.5 miles downstream. Downstream from the confluence of Willow Creek, the river consistently loses water and was dry just north of Dumont Dunes during the February 2014 synoptic seepage measurement survey.

California, Nevada

Multi-resource analysis: A proof of concept study of natural resource tradeoffs in the Piceance Basin, Colorado, using the net resources assessment (NetRA) decision support tool

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing a multi-resource analysis (MRA) line of products to inform land-use decision makers. Specifically, MRA products will integrate scientific information, include considerations for natural resource interrelations, and quantify the effects of resource management decisions in biophysical, economic, and societal terms. As part of the establishment of the MRA, the USGS, in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, has developed the Net Resources Assessment (NetRA) decision support tool. As a proof of concept analysis, the NetRA was applied to the Piceance basin in Colorado in a hypothetical example to illustrate how resource managers could use the NetRA to consider tradeoffs of natural resources among alternative development plans and land cover patterns within a geographic region. The NetRA is a policy-relevant approach to assess the availability of multiple natural resources. It is an analytical toolset that may be used to examine the spatiotemporal relations between development of energy and mineral resources and delivery of biological natural resources. The NetRA operates at multiple map scales and contains a set of integrated, compatible submodels with specific data requirements for natural resource stocks, engineering economics, biophysical, and ecological data for ecosystem services stocks, market prices, regulations, and nonmarket values. The NetRA includes an explicit process to consider the interdependence between development and conservation, which is a crucial consideration in land-management and land-use decisions. The NetRA is used to estimate an expected net resource value (NRV). The NRV is the expected, present value, economic benefit from the extraction of a resource (for example, natural gas) minus the total cost of production, which is the aggregation of the development, production, and social costs. Social costs include private costs plus any external costs. There can be external social benefits associated with natural gas production, such as increased demand for locally produced goods and increased employment in the local area through backward and forward linkages of natural gas production. The NRV is used to compare development outcomes (scenarios) from a range of exploration and development plans for cumulative energy production. The Piceance basin application of the NetRA uses the NRV to assess the tradeoff between continuous natural gas extraction and the effects to the local populations of Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and aquatic species and to consumptive water uses for an area the size and resolution of a USGS energy resource assessment unit. In the proof of concept simulation, the 2.9-square-mile-area of USGS oil and gas assessment unit 50200263 (Piceance basin continuous gas unit of the Mesaverde Total Petroleum System) was gridded into 588 cells. From this area, seven clusters with potential for development and three that cannot be developed were identified; the three clusters that cannot be developed were identified as wilderness study areas, areas of critical environmental concern, and national forests. On the basis of these criteria, there are 118 cells unsuitable for development in the oil and gas assessment unit: 84 are in national forests, 23 are areas of critical environmental concern, and 11 are wilderness study areas. The remaining cells in the oil and gas assessment unit can be developed on both private and public lands. Two scenarios were considered that are distinguished as plan 1 and plan 2. Plan 1 keeps the amount of land disturbance unchanged and limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period, which constrains the amount of the energy resources available for development; the plan requires the usage of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) unsuitability criteria. Plan 2 also limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period but provides a constant volume of energy production by increasing the density of well pads within the cells. The effects of plan 2 to the NRV when there are five wells per pad and five pads per square mile happen mostly in the first 5 years of development, even though the effects on the population of mule deer continue in later years. This outcome is the result of the upfront development and investment costs and the initial effect to the ecosystem services.

Colorado

Probability of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate in ground water in a six-county area of south-central Idaho

A probability map constructed for this study identified several areas in a six-county region of south-central Idaho with high probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations (greater than 2 milligrams per liter) of nitrate. An increasing proportion of Idaho’s ground water being used for drinking water and large increases in the inputs of nitrogen to ground water in Cassia, Gooding, Jerome, Lincoln, Minidoka, and Twin Falls Counties have prompted concerns about the quality of the resource. The probability map was constructed to assist regulatory and resource agencies in managing land use and protecting water resources. To construct the probability map, hydrogeologic and anthropogenic data were integrated with ground-water quality data in a geographic information system. The resulting data set contained land use, geology, precipitation, soil characteristics, depth to ground water, nitrogen input, and ground-water velocity information for each of the 1,365 samples collected from 1991 to 2001. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the most statistically significant variables related to the detection of elevated nitrate concentrations. The resulting multivariate probability model showed that ground-water velocity, nitrogen input, precipitation, soil drainage, land use, and depth to ground water were significantly correlated with elevated nitrate concentrations. A subset of the water-quality data set was used to verify these results. Linear regression of the percentage of predicted probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations and the actual percentage of elevated nitrate concentrations with the model data set and the verification data set both showed good correlations: r-squared values were 0.96 and 0.97, respectively. Statistical comparisons of both data sets showed that ground-water samples containing elevated nitrate concentrations had significantly higher probabilities of detection (p < 0.001) than samples without elevated nitrate concentrations. On the basis of these results, a map identifying the probability of detecting elevated nitrate concentrations was constructed. High-probability areas on the map coincided with regions of agricultural land use and high nitrogen input, except in southern Gooding County and western Jerome County. In these areas, high ground-water velocities representing a predominance of regional ground water resulted in a low probability of detecting elevated nitrate concentrations. Areas of poor prediction tended to be congregated along the transition zone between high and low ground-water velocities in Jerome and Gooding Counties, indicating a mix of regional and recently recharged ground water.

Idaho

Diet of Myotis ciliolabrum from six sites in the southwestern United States

With bat populations declining in many parts of the world, detailed life history information will be critical for assessing vulnerabilities of bat populations and associated trophic effects. Myotis ciliolabrum (western small-footed bat) is a species of insectivorous bat distributed from the Great Plains to the Pacific Coast and from British Columbia to Central Mexico. The species is spottily distributed within this wider range but is locally abundant in areas containing appropriate rocky habitat. Despite M. ciliolabrum being relatively common, little information is available about its feeding ecology. Earlier studies have suggested that skull morphology can be used to determine whether insectivorous bats select for soft- or hard-bodied prey, but we hypothesized that M. ciliolabrum may feed opportunistically on a variety of insect types. To test this hypothesis, we examined the feeding habits of western small-footed bats captured during 2000–2022 at 6 national parks and 1 national conservation area across the Southwest. Visual analysis of prey remains in guano revealed that western small-footed bats within our study area consumed insects belonging to 7 orders (Lepidoptera, Coleoptera, Hymenoptera, Hemiptera, Neuroptera, Diptera, and Odonata) and 20 families. Diet varied over time and across geographic space, though we observed a general trend in which the orders Lepidoptera, Coleoptera, and Hymenoptera were consumed at the highest volumes. This varied diet indicates opportunistic feeding in which M. ciliolabrum makes use of locally abundant resources.

Colorado, New Mexico, Texas

Space-time modelling of lightning-caused ignitions in the Blue Mountains, Oregon

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were used to study the effect of vegetation cover, elevation, slope, and precipitation on the probability of ignition in the Blue Mountains, Oregon, and to estimate the probability of ignition occurrence at different locations in space and in time. Data on starting location of lightning-caused ignitions in the Blue Mountains between April 1986 and September 1993 constituted the base for the analysis. The study area was divided into a pixela??time array. For each pixela??time location we associated a value of 1 if at least one ignition occurred and 0 otherwise. Covariate information for each pixel was obtained using a geographic information system. The GLMMs were fitted in a Bayesian framework. Higher ignition probabilities were associated with the following cover types: subalpine herbaceous, alpine tundra, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.), whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.), subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.), and grand fir (Abies grandis (Dougl.) Lindl.). Within each vegetation type, higher ignition probabilities occurred at lower elevations. Additionally, ignition probabilities are lower in the northern and southern extremes of the Blue Mountains. The GLMM procedure used here is suitable for analysing ignition occurrence in other forested regions where probabilities of ignition are highly variable because of a spatially complex biophysical environment.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Habitat Suitability Index Models and Instream Flow Suitability Curves: Spotted bass

The Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models presented in this publication aid in identifying habitat variable important to the growth and survival of spotted bass (Micropterus punctulatus). Facts, ideas, and concepts obtained from the research literature and expert reviews are synthesized and presented in a format that can be used for impact assessment. The models are hypotheses of species-habitat relationships, and model users should recognize that the degree of veracity of the HSI model, SI graphs, and assumptions will vary according to geographical area and the extent of the data base for individual variables. A brief discussion of selected Suitability Index (SI) curves as used in the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM), and a discussion of SI curves available for the IFIM analysis of Spotted bass habitat are also included.

FWS/OBS

Analysis and review of fishery-dependent data for Hawaiian nearshore noncommercial fisheries

Noncommercial, shore-based fisheries provide economic, social, and cultural services to communities throughout the Hawaiian Islands. The State of Hawai‘i Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), Division of Aquatic Resources (DAR) routinely conducts surveys to monitor noncommercial fisheries such that estimates of fishing effort and catch by gear type can be generated and used to implement more sustainable management practices. DAR executes both the Hawai‘i Marine Recreational Fishery Survey (HMRFS), a nationally standardized survey that focuses on intercepting fishers at access points (i.e., boat ramps) across the main Hawaiian Islands, and a set of roving creel surveys on O‘ahu, Maui Nui, and Kaua‘i that observe and intercept fishers at locations along the shoreline outside of those targeted by HMRFS. The latter set of creel surveys were designed to complement HMRFS by expanding its geographic coverage and thus providing a more representative picture of noncommercial fishing in Hawai‘i. Sustainable management priorities set by DAR rely on the availability of statewide, fishery- dependent data. Thus, we collate information from island-based roving creel surveys into a cohesive Statewide Creel Survey Database. Further, we provide preliminary analyses and describe ways that surveys could be streamlined to improve future data collection, analysis, and utility. In so doing, we synthesize the most detailed information to-date about noncommercial shore-based fisheries of Hawai‘i. The unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage of DAR’s dataset reveals the value of their survey efforts over the last decade to address fishery management needs. Our primary objectives, results, and conclusions are summarized below: 1) Integrate DAR roving creel survey data from different islands into a single Statewide Creel Survey Dataset (Chapter II). We describe the collation of creel survey data from O‘ahu, Maui Nui, and Kaua‘i into a statewide dataset. We also offer ways in which these surveys could be streamlined to meet the needs of managers and decision makers. Briefly, these are to create a statewide strategic plan, standardize the execution of standard operating procedures, centralize the creel survey database and associated metadata, and consider using technology that improves the data pipeline, including transitioning from paper-based to electronic systems for data entry and processing. 2) Assess whether the new Statewide Creel Survey Dataset can provide inputs for length-based stock assessments (Chapter III). Only on Maui were interviews conducted with associated catch data. There was reasonably high taxonomic coverage (42 species from 186 interviews with 310 fishers), but low sample sizes for nearly all species precluded the development of length-based stock assessments. We provide summary statistics from the existing data and briefly discuss how technologies could be used to automate analysis of images of noncommercial catch. 3) Analyze the Statewide Creel Survey Dataset for spatial and temporal patterns in fishing effort (Chapter IV): a. Visualizing noncommercial fishing pressure . We found that fishing effort (mean number of fishers observed per survey event at a site) on O'ahu was over three times greater than that recorded during similar surveys conducted on Maui or Kaua'i. We create maps that display the distribution of angling and spearfishing effort around each of the three islands. b. Factors that predict fishing “hotspots” around Maui . Fishing effort on Maui was associated with areas with more wave power and less parking availability. There were half as many fishers in areas with parking lots than in areas with parking on the road shoulder only. c. Changes in fishing effort during the COVID-19 pandemic . There was no change in fishing effort on O‘ahu during the first year of the pandemic, but there was a 20% decline in year 2 and a 33% decline in year 3, both in comparison to pre-pandemic levels. Pre-pandemic creel survey data were unavailable for Maui and Kaua‘i, but fishing effort on these islands also declined as the pandemic progressed at similar or greater rates than those observed on O‘ahu. 4) Quantify potential bias in survey methods by experimentally deriving fisher detection probabilities of shore-based and drone-based surveys (Chapter V): a. Shore-based surveys . We conducted roving creel surveys for four months at three locations around Hilo Bay, designed to emulate and estimate the efficacy of DAR standard operating procedures. There was high agreement between paired observers in counting fishers, leading to near-perfect detection probabilities of both anglers (94%) and spearfishers (97%), but relatively low agreement and detection probabilities of other fishers (throw net, ‘opihi picking, etc.) (52%). b. Drone-based surveys . We used an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV; operated by DAR staff) to collect imagery of fishers along the Hilo Bay shoreline. We used still images and video clips (with known fishing activity) to build an online survey that was distributed to DAR and HCFRU personnel, asking them to count and categorize resource users as a snorkeler, spearfisher, angler, or other fisher. Only 40.0% of the responses correctly counted and categorized resource users in the image. Anglers were correctly identified and enumerated in 90.0% of the responses, but the correct response rates of the other three user categories ranged from 67.8% – 79.4%. Snorkelers and anglers tended to be undercounted while spearfishers and other fishers were overcounted. 5) Review the potential for incorporating emerging technologies that will improve, augment, and evolve creel survey data collection, especially for spearfishing (Chapter VI). Within the context of monitoring shore-based noncommercial fishing, we review the use of electronic data entry/processing systems with geospatial and image capabilities, field cameras, drones, smart buoys, citizen science apps, data mining social media, artificial intelligence and machine learning. We highlight several of the challenges and considerations when implementing these technologies into creel surveys and provide a synthesis of options that could be used to better estimate spearfishing. The general conclusion of this assessment is that the DAR roving creel survey program is collecting valuable data that supplement the existing HMRFS efforts. However, there are a number of areas that could be improved to make these efforts a more effective tool for decision-making processes in resource management and conservation: 1) Establishment of clear statewide and island objectives for the Statewide Creel Survey Dataset. Currently, data collection efforts are focused towards addressing a very broad purpose – supplementing the HMRFS data collection efforts. However, the results of the preliminary analyses conducted as part of this project suggest that the data could be used to address other areas of need if these objectives were clearly defined. Further, the design of the creel survey would benefit from greater standardization of survey protocols between islands and an effort to define a) the acceptable margins of error associated with the estimates generated by these data and b) the minimum level of change that the surveys would need to detect to be useful to managers. 2) Centralization of data entry, data quality assessment, and data accessibility. Currently, each DAR office manages data entry, checks the data for errors, and is responsible for managing and storing the data. Instituting a centralized data entry system, particularly an online database that can receive survey data from tablets or smartphones running a standardized data collection application would improve efficiency, reduce data entry errors, and accelerate the availability of data to managers. A substantial amount of time and effort from the project described in this report was devoted to checking the dataset for errors. The development and application of data quality assurance protocols would ensure that the data are reliable and available in a timely fashion to support management decisions. 3) Address lingering questions regarding the efficacy of current survey protocols to capture and characterize the spearfishing component of the noncommercial fishery. The results presented in the report suggest that the current creel survey protocols do a good job detecting spearfishers when present but are not capturing sufficient data about their catch or total effort. There are also questions remaining as to whether the survey times and sites are sufficiently capturing the behavior of spearfishers in Hawai‘i. A more thorough assessment – whether through additional research, alteration of survey design, or review of data by representatives of the spearfishing community – would provide insight on how to use the Statewide Creel Survey Database to inform management of spearfishing. 4) Investigate the integration of technological advancements into the creel survey methods. As priorities and needs are developed and formalized, it would be valuable to consider how various technological advancements might enhance and streamline data collection or open new avenues of inquiry.

Hawaii

Introduction: Hazard mapping

Twenty papers were accepted into the session on landslide hazard mapping for oral presentation. The papers presented susceptibility and hazard analysis based on approaches ranging from field-based assessments to statistically based models to assessments that combined hydromechanical and probabilistic components. Many of the studies have taken advantage of increasing availability of remotely sensed data and nearly all relied on Geographic Information Systems to organize and analyze spatial data. The studies used a range of methods for assessing performance and validating hazard and susceptibility models. A few of the studies presented in this session also included some element of landslide risk assessment. This collection of papers clearly demonstrates that a wide range of approaches can lead to useful assessments of landslide susceptibility and hazard.

Book chapter