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North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) scenario planning summary report

Scenario planning provides a structured framework that can be used in strategic planning to help manage risk and prioritize actions (Schwartz 1996; Peterson et al. 2003). By providing a mechanism to communicate about complex situations, scenario planning encourages “out-of-the-box” thinking to help groups assess the impacts of plausible future scenarios on a target or resource. The outcomes from scenario planning can be used to improve management decisions, highlight data gaps, and/or identify future science priorities (Star et al. 2015; Borggaard et al. 2019). The application of scenario planning by resource management organizations (e.g., Borggaard et al. 2019; Runyon et al. 2020; Star et al. 2015) and the urgency surrounding the recovery of the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), led to a 2018 NOAA Fisheries scenario planning initiative for the species. In addition to complementing the many management and conservation efforts already underway, this initiative was designed to address the uncertainties around future anthropogenic and environmental changes and how these uncertainties may impact species recovery. We used a scenario planning framework to explore plausible future conditions for North Atlantic right whales and to develop possible options to address those conditions and improve recovery. Specific objectives were to: 1) better understand the challenges of right whale management in a changing climate; 2) identify potential research activities and recovery needs across the species’ range; 3) increase coordination and collaboration related to recovery efforts; and 4) explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Using projected changes in ocean conditions coupled with anthropogenic stressors, we built four plausible future scenarios for right whales. These scenarios helped identify priority research and management actions that NOAA Fisheries and our partners can undertake to improve right whale recovery. We identified priority actions related to science, management, and partnerships including, but not limited to, 1) research on shifting spatial and temporal distributions of right whales and prey in a changing climate; 2) development of technology to further reduce impacts from human activities; 3) continuation of ongoing management efforts related to vessel traffic and fishing; and 4) continued maintenance of existing and development of new partnerships (e.g., industry engagement in problem solving). This scenario planning exercise helped prioritize North Atlantic right whale management and science needs in light of changing ocean conditions and anthropogenic impacts. It can also serve as a reference for how NOAA Fisheries and its partners can better prepare for multiple plausible futures while complementing other on-going initiatives. Priorities identified here can be considered in conjunction with implementation and monitoring actions such as with the Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Team (ALWTRT) and/or regional Right Whale U.S. Implementation Teams. The framework can also be repeated and improved upon as additional information becomes available to support future exercises.

Technical Memorandum

Bear reintroduction: Lessons and challenges

Reintroduction is defined as an attempt to establish a species in an area that was once part of its historical range, but from which it has been extirpated or become extinct. Historically, one of the most successful programs was the reintroduction of 254 American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) from Minnesota to the Interior Highlands of Arkansas in the 1960s; that population has grown to >2,500 today. More recent efforts have involved fewer but better monitored animals and have sometimes employed techniques to improve site fidelity and survival. In Pennsylvania, for example, pregnant female American black bears were successfully translocated from winter dens, the premise being that the adult females would be less likely to return because of the presence of young cubs. That winter-release technique was compared to summer trapping and release in Tennessee; winter releases resulted in greater survival and reduced post-release movements. Homing has not been a problem for small numbers of brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) reintroduced to the Cabinet-Yaak ecosystem in Montana and Idaho and to the mountains of Austria and France. Reintroduction success appears to be correlated with translocation distance and is greater for subadults and females. As with any small population, reintroduced bear populations are susceptible to environmental variation and stochastic demographic and genetic processes. Although managers have focused on these biological barriers, sociopolitical impediments to bear reintroduction are more difficult to overcome. Poor public acceptance and understanding of bears are the main reasons some reintroduction programs have been derailed. Consequently, the public should be involved in the reintroduction process from the outset; overcoming negative public perceptions about bear reintroduction will be our greatest challenge.

Ursus

The role of behavioral ecotoxicology in environmental protection

For decades, we have known that chemicals affect human and wildlife behavior. Moreover, due to recent technological and computational advances, scientists are now increasingly aware that a wide variety of contaminants and other environmental stressors adversely affect organismal behavior and subsequent ecological outcomes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. There is also a groundswell of concern that regulatory ecotoxicology does not adequately consider behavior, primarily due to a lack of standardized toxicity methods. This has, in turn, led to the exclusion of many behavioral ecotoxicology studies from chemical risk assessments. To improve understanding of the challenges and opportunities for behavioral ecotoxicology within regulatory toxicology/risk assessment, a unique workshop with international representatives from the fields of behavioral ecology, ecotoxicology, regulatory (eco)toxicology, neurotoxicology, test standardization, and risk assessment resulted in the formation of consensus perspectives and recommendations, which promise to serve as a roadmap to advance interfaces among the basic and translational sciences, and regulatory practices.

Environmental Science & Technology

Nutrient vectors and riparian processing: A review with special reference to African semiarid savanna ecosystems

This review article describes vectors for nitrogen and phosphorus delivery to riparian zones in semiarid African savannas, the processing of nutrients in the riparian zone and the effect of disturbance on these processes. Semiarid savannas exhibit sharp seasonality, complex hillslope hydrology and high spatial heterogeneity, all of which ultimately impact nutrient fluxes between riparian, upland and aquatic environments. Our review shows that strong environmental drivers such as fire and herbivory enhance nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment transport to lower slope positions by shaping vegetative patterns. These vectors differ significantly from other arid and semiarid ecosystems, and from mesic ecosystems where the impact of fire and herbivory are less pronounced and less predictable. Also unique is the presence of sodic soils in certain hillslopes, which substantially alters hydrological flowpaths and may act as a trap where nitrogen is immobilized while sediment and phosphorus transport is enhanced. Nutrients and sediments are also deposited in the riparian zone during seasonal, intermittent floods while, during the dry season, subsurface movement of water from the stream into riparian soils and vegetation further enrich riparian zones with nutrients. As is found in mesic ecosystems, nutrients are immobilized in semiarid riparian corridors through microbial and plant uptake, whereas dissimilatory processes such as denitrification may be important where labile nitrogen and carbon are in adequate supply and physical conditions are suitable-such as in seeps, wallows created by animals, ephemeral wetlands and stream edges. Interaction between temporal hydrologic connectivity and spatial heterogeneity are disrupted by disturbances such as large floods and extended droughts, which may convert certain riparian patches from sinks to sources for nitrogen and phosphorus. In the face of increasing anthropogenic pressure, the scientific challenges are to provide a basic understanding of riparian biogeochemistry in semiarid African savannas to adequately address the temporal and spatial impact of disturbances, and to apply this knowledge to better regional land and water management. An integrated, multidisciplinary approach applied in protected as well as human-disturbed ecosystems in southern Africa is essential for underpinning a strong environmental basis for sustainable human-related expansion.

Ecosystems

Changing perceptions of change: The role of scientists in tamarix and river management

Initially introduced to western United States to provide ecosystem services such as erosion control, Tamarix by the mid-1900s had became vilified as a profligate waster of water. This large shrub continues, today, to be indicted for various presumed environmental and economic costs, and millions of dollars are expended on its eradication. In this review, we examine the role of scientists in driving changes in perceptions of Tamarix from valuable import to vilified invader and (in some instances) back to a productive member of riparian plant communities. Scientists over the years have sustained a negative perception of Tamarix by, among other things, (1) citing outmoded sources; (2) inferring causation from correlative studies; (3) applying conclusions beyond the scope (domain) of the studies; and (4) emphasizing findings that present the species as an extreme or unnatural agent of change. Recent research is challenging the prevailing dogma regarding Tamarix ’s role in ecosystem function and habitat degradation and many scientists now recommend management shifts from “pest plant” eradication to systemic, process-based restoration. However, prejudice against this and other non-native species persists. To further close the gap between science and management, it is important for scientists to strive to (1) cite sources appropriately; (2) avoid reflexive antiexotic bias; (3) avoid war-based and pestilence-based terminology; (4) heed the levels of certainty and the environmental domain of studies; (5) maintain up-to-date information on educational Web sites; and (6) prior to undertaking restoration or management actions, conduct a thorough and critical review of the literature.

Restoration Ecology

Ranking river basins for stream temperature research and monitoring in the contiguous United States

There is a need to prioritize research and data collection in river basins by integrating information from environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic datasets to maintain acceptable water quality for human uses and ecosystem health. Multiple anthropogenic and natural stressors are responsible for driving changes in stream temperatures that can alter ecosystems and degrade water quality. These stressors are variable spatially and temporally, which can be challenging for prioritizing monitoring and research. In this study, an evaluation of variables related to stream temperature was performed for 163 candidate basins of the contiguous United States to highlight potential focal areas. Thirty variables were combined in six components: anthropogenic forcing, natural forcing, climate change, ecological sensitivity, socioeconomic sensitivity, and data availability. The components were incorporated into three themes: vulnerability of streams to thermal change, vulnerability of ecosystems, and vulnerability of communities. By evaluating each theme separately, patterns of vulnerability and potential resiliency were identified as well as consistency in ranks within the themes. For example, results of the national scale ranking indicated the Southern California Coastal basin (within California-Nevada region) was the highest-ranking priority in vulnerability of streams to thermal change and vulnerability of ecosystems. The analysis also identified vulnerable basins with gaps in monitoring. For example, the Missouri-Oahe basin (within the Northern High Plains region) was the highest-ranking priority for vulnerable communities with limitations in data availability. The ranking approach provides insight into basins that are resilient and are ideal candidates for monitoring and research.

Journal of Hydrology

Uncertainty of groundwater vulnerability assessments for agricultural regions in Hawaii: Review

There are important challenges associated with assessing potential groundwater vulnerability hazards that may result from regional scale applications of agrochemicals. The increasing availability of Geographic Information System (GIS) software to those involved in assisting with landuse decisions has resulted in the widespread production of multicolored risk management maps for many environmentally sensitive issues. Soil-based GIS's have recently been coupled to various solute-leaching models to make near-surface groundwater vulnerability assessments for guidance in pesticide regulation in several states. In general, these assessments rest on soil, climatic, and chemical data that are extremely sparse and contain considerable uncertainty. It is also important to acknowledge the uncertainty associated with the transport/fate processes that are not accounted for by the modeling approach used to make the assessment. In this paper, we review the results from a series of papers that have focused on characterization of uncertainty in pesticide mobility estimates, using the attenuation and retardation indices (AF and RF), for the Pearl Harbor Basin on the Hawaiian island of Oahu. Relative to data error uncertainties, we discuss the impacts of: (i) soil, climatic, and chemical data base uncertainties, (ii) reductions in data base uncertainties, (iii) extrapolation of soil data base information based on soil taxonomy and soil survey, and (iv) importing information from outside the region of interest. Relative to model error uncertainties, we compare pesticide leaching estimates from the simple AF and RF mobility indices with simulations from the EPA's Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM) and field observations. Finally, we outline a Regional Integrated Risk Assessment approach for characterizing regional scale groundwater vulnerability for near-surface nonpoint sources.

Hawaii

Understanding aquatic animal virus survival and trafficking and its role in risk assessment

The stability of infectious agents in different media and under different physical and chemical environments has been extensively studied for some viruses and virtually ignored for others. Gaps in our knowledge are due in part to difficulties in reproducing virus «life cycles» and determination if the agent is in fact inactive. Additionally, isolation of the agent under certain conditions can present significant challenges. Studies on the susceptibility of viruses to different physical or chemical parameters have often been conducted under artificial conditions and quantitative data on the rate of inactivation are lacking for many agents. Using infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) as an example, survival was assessed under different environmental conditions. Three IHNV isolates that exhibited antigenic and genetic differences were diluted either in freshwater collected from a spring, after it passed through a fish farm, or the river that received water from the fish farm. Each treatment was incubated at 15o C in a water bath and samples were removed daily. Virus concentrations were determined by plaque assay on EPC cells. Virus suspended in spring water survived longer than virus incubated in water obtained from a fish farm or the river. Virus suspended in river water exhibited a 99.99% reduction in virus concentrations in less than 24 h. Survival of IHNV was also evaluated at different temperatures. A 1982 isolate appeared to be less temperature sensitive than isolates collected in 1990. A preliminary study was also conducted to determine the genetic similarity of IHNV isolates present downstream in a river system from the state of Idaho. Isolates were analyzed using the RNase protection assay (RPA) and by nucleotide sequencing of RT-PCR products of specific isolates. Genetic typing of IHNV allows monitoring of virus traffic and may provide insight into the epizootiology and mechanisms of virus spread. These results illustrate the complexity in evaluating virus survival and trafficing and using this sort of information in risk assessment.

Conference Paper

2nd interface between ecology and land development in California

The 2nd Interface Between Ecology and Land Development Conference was held in association with Earth Day 1997, five years after the first Interface Conference. Rapid population growth in California has intensified the inevitable conflict between land development and preservation of natural ecosystems. Sustainable development requires wise use of diminishing natural resources and, where possible, restoration of damaged landscapes. These Earth Week Celebrations brought together resource managers, scientists, politicians, environmental consultants, and concerned citizens in an effort to improve the communication necessary to maintain our natural biodiversity, ecosystem processes and general quality of life. As discussed by our keynote speaker, Michael Soule, the best predictor of habitat loss is population growth and nowhere is this better illustrated than in California. As urban perimeters expand, the interface between wildlands and urban areas increases. Few problems are more vexing than how to manage the fire prone ecosystems indigenous to California at this urban interface. Today resource managers face increasing challenges of dealing with this problem and the lead-off section of the proceedings considers both the theoretical basis for making decisions related to prescribed burning and the practical application. Habitat fragmentation is an inevitable consequence of development patterns with significant impacts on animal and plant populations. Managers must be increasingly resourceful in dealing with problems of fragmentation and the often inevitable consequences, including susceptibility to invasive oganisms. One approach to dealing with fragmentation problems is through careful landplanning. California is the national leader in the integration of conservation and economics. On Earth Day 1991, Governor Pete Wilson presented an environmental agenda that promised to create between land owners and environmentalists, agreements that would guarantee the protection of -endangered species and out of this grew the pioneering initiative, known as the Natural Communities Conservation Planning (NCCP) program. California's vast expanse of seemingly endless resources has traditionally been viewed as justification for abusive land use practices. The modem day recognition that resources are finite has led to greater concern, not only for conserving what is left, but for restoring abused landscapes. Ecological restoration is a new science devoted to returning disturbed environments to a semblance of their 'pristine' state. Based on principles of 'revegetation,' restoration goes far beyond simple replanting, rather the ambition of ecological restoration is to return landscapes to functioning ecosystems and is the focus of the last section.

Open-File Report

Effects of dams in river networks on fish assemblages in non-impoundment sections of rivers in Michigan and Wisconsin, USA

Regional assessment of cumulative impacts of dams on riverine fish assemblages provides resource managers essential information for dam operation, potential dam removal, river health assessment and overall ecosystem management. Such an assessment is challenging because characteristics of fish assemblages are not only affected by dams, but also influenced by natural variation and human-induced modification (in addition to dams) in thermal and flow regimes, physicochemical habitats and biological assemblages. This study evaluated the impacts of dams on river fish assemblages in the non-impoundment sections of rivers in the states of Michigan and Wisconsin using multiple fish assemblage indicators and multiple approaches to distinguish the influences of dams from those of other natural and human-induced factors. We found that environmental factors that influence fish assemblages in addition to dams should be incorporated when evaluating regional effects of dams on fish assemblages. Without considering such co-influential factors, the evaluation is inadequate and potentially misleading. The role of dams alone in determining fish assemblages at a regional spatial scale is relatively small (explained less than 20% of variance) compared with the other environmental factors, such as river size, flow and thermal regimes and land uses jointly. However, our results do demonstrate that downstream and upstream dams can substantially modify fish assemblages in the non-impoundment sections of rivers. After excluding river size and land-use influences, our results clearly demonstrate that dams have significant impacts on fish biotic-integrity and habitat-and-social-preference indicators. The influences of the upstream dams, downstream dams, distance to dams, and dam density differ among the fish indicators, which have different implications for maintaining river biotic integrity, protecting biodiversity and managing fisheries.

Wisconsin and Michigan

Gauging state-level and user group views of oyster reef restoration activities in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Successful oyster reef restoration, like many conservation challenges, requires not only biological understanding of the resource, but also stakeholder cooperation and political support. To measure perceptions of oyster reef restoration activities and priorities for future restoration along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, a survey of 1500 individuals representing 4 user groups (oyster harvesters, shrimpers, environmental organization members, professionals), across 5 states (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida) was conducted in 2011. All respondents highly supported reef restoration efforts, but there was a dichotomy in preferred restoration goals with commercial fishermen more likely to support oyster reef restoration for stock enhancement, while professionals and environmental organization members were more likely to support oyster reef restoration to enhance ecosystem services. All user groups identified enforcement, funding, and appropriate site selection as basic requirements for successful reef restoration. For management of restored oyster reefs, oyster harvesters and shrimpers were less likely to support options that restricted the use of reefs, including gear restrictions and permanent closures, but did support rotating annual reef closures, while other stakeholders were willing to consider all options, including annual reef closures and sanctuary reefs. Overall, there were clear differences in management and communication preferences across user groups, but few differences across states. Understanding these key differences in stakeholder support for, and willingness to accept specific management actions is critical in moving management and restoration forward while minimizing conflict.

Ocean and Coastal Management

How to accelerate advances in ecological forecasting

Ecological forecasting offers critical insights for managing natural resources and safeguarding public well-being. Despite growing demand for these forecasts, progress is hindered by fragmented systems, redundant workflows, and limited interoperability. Drawing lessons from weather forecasting and recent successes like the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge, shared cyberinfrastructure is important for advancing ecological prediction. By adopting common standards, open-source tools, and scalable architectures, and fostering transdisciplinary collaboration, the ecological forecasting community can overcome technical and institutional barriers. Such investments could accelerate scientific understanding, improve forecast reliability, and empower decisionmakers to anticipate environmental change and respond effectively.

Eos, American Geophysical Union

Submersed aquatic vegetation in Chesapeake Bay: Sentinel species in a changing world

Chesapeake Bay has undergone profound changes since European settlement. Increases in human and livestock populations, associated changes in land use, increases in nutrient loadings, shoreline armoring, and depletion of fish stocks have altered the important habitats within the Bay. Submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) is a critical foundational habitat and provides numerous benefits and services to society. In Chesapeake Bay, SAV species are also indicators of environmental change because of their sensitivity to water quality and shoreline development. As such, SAV has been deeply integrated into regional regulations and annual assessments of management outcomes, restoration efforts, the scientific literature, and popular media coverage. Even so, SAV in Chesapeake Bay faces many historical and emerging challenges. The future of Chesapeake Bay is indicated by and contingent on the success of SAV. Its persistence will require continued action, coupled with new practices, to promote a healthy and sustainable ecosystem.

Chesapeake Bay

Feeding ecology of the walleye (Percidae, Sander vitreus), a resurgent piscivore in Lake Huron (Laurentian Great Lakes) after shifts in the prey community

Recovering populations of piscivores can challenge understanding of ecosystem function due to impacts on prey and to potentially altered food webs supporting their production. Stocks of walleye (Percidae, Sander vitreus ), an apex predator in the Laurentian Great Lakes, crashed in the mid‐1900s. Management efforts led to recovery by 2009, but recovery coincided with environmental and fish community changes that also had implications for the feeding ecology of walleye. To evaluate potential changes in feeding ecology for this apex predator, we assessed diets in the main basin of Lake Huron and in Saginaw Bay, a large embayment of Lake Huron, during 2009–2011. Walleye switched their diets differently in the main basin and Saginaw Bay, with non‐native round goby (Gobiidae, Neogobius melanostomus ) and rainbow smelt (Osmeridae, Osmerus mordax ) more prevalent in diets in the main basin, and invertebrates, yellow perch (Percidae, Perca flavescens ) and gizzard shad (Clupeidae, Dorosoma cepedianum ) more prevalent in diets in the bay. Feeding strategy plots indicated that there was a high degree of individual specialisation by walleye in the bay and the main basin. Bioenergetic simulations indicated that walleye in Saginaw Bay need to consume 10%–18% more food than a walleye that spends part or all of the year in the main basin, respectively, in order to achieve the same growth rate. The differences in diets between the bay and main basin highlight the flexibility of this apex predator in the face of environmental changes, but changes in diet can alter energy pathways supporting piscivore production.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish

The consequences of climate change for dryland biogeochemistry

Drylands, which cover more than 40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, are dominant drivers of global biogeochemical cycling and home to more than one third of the human population. Climate projections predict warming, drought frequency and severity, and evaporative demand will increase in drylands at faster rates than global means. Due to extreme temperatures and high biological dependency on limited water availability, drylands are predicted to be exceptionally sensitive to climate change and, indeed, significant climate impacts are already being observed. Yet our understanding and ability to forecast climate change effects on dryland biogeochemistry and ecosystem functions lag behind many mesic systems. To improve our capacity to forecast ecosystem change, we propose focusing on the controls and consequences of two key characteristics affecting dryland biogeochemistry: i) high spatial and temporal heterogeneity in environmental conditions and ii) generalized resource scarcity. In addition to climate change, drylands are experiencing accelerating land use change. Building our understanding of dryland biogeochemistry in both intact and disturbed systems will better equip us to address the interacting effects of climate change and landscape degradation. Responding to these challenges will require a diverse, globally distributed, and interdisciplinary community of dryland experts united towards better understanding these vast and important ecosystems.

New Phytologist Foundation

Estimating Piacenzian sea surface temperature using an alkenone-calibrated transfer function

Stationarity of environmental preferences is a primary assumption required for any paleoenvironmental reconstruction using fossil materials based upon calibration to modern organisms. Confidence in this assumption decreases the further back in time one goes, and the validity of the assumption that species temperature tolerances have not changed over time has been challenged in Pliocene studies. We use paired U K′ 37 (unsaturated ketones with 37 carbon atoms) sea surface temperature (SST) and faunal assemblage data to directly calibrate North Atlantic Piacenzian planktonic foraminifer assemblages to Piacenzian alkenone paleotemperature estimates to provide an alternative paleoceanographic reconstruction approach that does not rely on stationarity. In doing so, we extend Pliocene SST estimates to sites where only quantitative faunal assemblage data were previously available and improve the spatial resolution of the North Atlantic SST reconstruction.

Scientific Investigations Report

The Global Land-Cover Characteristics Database: The users' perspective

A unique global land-cover characteristics database developed by the U.S. Geological Survey has been available to users since mid-1997. Access to the data is through the internet under the EROS (Earth Resources Observation Systems) Data Center's home page (http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/landdaac/glcc/glcc.html). Since the release of the database, the data have been incorporated into various environmental research and modeling applications, including mapping global biodiversity, mesoscale climate simulations, carbon cycle modeling, and estimating habitat destruction. Since the early stages of the project, user feedback has provided a means to understand data utility in applications, garner suggestions for data improvements, and gain insights into the technical challenges faced by users. Synthesis of user feedback provided a means to generate a user profile and derive a list of applications-critical criteria for land-cover data. User suggestions have lead to revisions in the database, including label changes, alternative classification schemes, and additional projections for the data.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing

Selenium and mercury tissue partitioning and trophodynamics in the Lake Koocanusa (USA–Canada) fish community

Mining-related contaminants such as selenium (Se) and mercury (Hg) accumulate in aquatic organisms and transfer through aquatic food webs, where they can exert toxic effect undermining the ecological health of aquatic resources. Yet, how Se and Hg co-distribute within food webs and within individual organisms remains poorly understood. We compiled muscle and ovary Se and Hg concentration data from fishes captured in Lake Koocanusa—a North American reservoir receiving elevated Se and Hg inputs from coal mining operations in the Elk River Valley, Canada—to provide insights into the co-processing of Se and Hg within fish and among fish species, including how ecological or seasonal factors shift these distribution patterns. Se and Hg concentrations (ranges: 0.21–38.7 μg Se g −1 dry weight and 0.01–0.84 μg Hg g −1 wet weight), as well as Se:Hg molar ratios, varied substantially between tissues and among species, reflecting biological and ecological differences. Our results suggest that the decoupling of Se or Hg deposition in fish muscle versus ovary may reflect different pathways of impairment, at the individual and population levels, and that interspecific and tissue-specific variability makes it challenging to set a universal Se:Hg threshold for the protection of aquatic organisms.

British Columbia, Montana