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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Analyses of meteorological and hydrological records support Tribal members’ accounts of changing climate on the Fort Apache Reservation, east–central Arizona

The Fort Apache Reservation in east–central Arizona, home to the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, contains several climate zones because of the large variation in surface elevation within the reservation. This study was carried out in cooperation with the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, to raise awareness of how the changing climate affects the Fort Apache Reservation. This report documents the evaluation of existing multidecadal meteorological and hydrological datasets for the Fort Apache Reservation, used to evaluate the effects of a changing climate on the reservation. In this evaluation, near-surface air temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent, precipitation, and streamflow datasets were analyzed for monotonic trends indicative of changing climatic conditions during specified periods of time. The results of these trend analyses were then compared with the Tribal community's memories of the changing climate. Trend analysis of near-surface air temperatures from a U.S. Historical Climatological Network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at Whiteriver, Arizona, indicated that mean annual air temperatures have increased by an average of 2.48 degrees Fahrenheit from 1980 to 2023. Records from the same station also indicated that average monthly maximum temperatures recorded for March increased by 5.39 degrees Fahrenheit for the same time period. Annual precipitation at the five precipitation stations used in this study decreased greatly from the 1980s to 2023. The largest total decrease was 10.07 inches, or 34.7 percent. However, only one of the two precipitation stations with longer term data available prior to 1980 had a significant negative trend when data from the entire period of record, from 1901 to 2023, were analyzed. Trend analyses show a decrease in the annual maximum snow water equivalent and an earlier disappearance of the snowpack at two Natural Resources Conservation Service snow telemetry stations in the mountainous region just east of the Fort Apache Reservation from 1981 to 2023. Based on the trend analyses, the average annual maximum snow water equivalent has decreased by more than 40 percent at both stations, and the average date when the snowpack was fully melted at the stations in the spring has moved earlier in time from late April to early April or late March. However, a statistically significant trend was not determined for the early April snow water equivalent measured at a nearby Natural Resources Conservation Service snow course across its period of record, indicating that the history of mountain snowpack in this area is not fully understood. Analysis of snowfall data from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Cooperative Observer Program network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at McNary 2N, AZ (station 025412) indicated that, on average, the measured total annual snowfall at the station decreased 42.4 percent from 1935 to 2023. Streamflow data from six U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on the Fort Apache Reservation were analyzed for trends. For most streamflow gages, statistically significant trends were not determined for tested parameters when the entire streamflow period of record was used for stations with records going back to at least the 1960s. However, when the data from 1980 to 2023 was tested, most of the streamflow parameters had statistically significant negative trends. All six streamgages showed a decrease in average annual runoff of at least 50 percent from 1980 to 2023; one streamgage showed an 81.8 percent decrease. A similar statistical finding was observed in the analysis of the annual spring snowmelt peak from one of the six streamgages used in the study and located in an area receiving measurable amounts of snowmelt runoff. When data from the entire period of record (1958–2023) was used, no trend in streamflow was determined; however, a significant negative trend was determined from 1980 to 2023, indicating a decrease in average annual springtime runoff of 62.6 percent. Statistical analysis on the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak at the same streamgage indicated the snowmelt peak is happening on average about 12 days earlier now (2023) than it did in the past. The trend results for the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak were the same and statistically significant for both periods tested (1958–2023 and 1980–2023). Two of the streamflow records from the Fort Apache Reservation were compared to the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index computed for Arizona Climate Division 4 (East Central) by the National Centers for Environmental Information. The comparison showed that the streamflow records generally tracked the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. In interviews, Tribal community members living on the Fort Apache Reservation described the changes in climate that they observed during their lifetimes. Common themes reported were that air temperatures have become warmer, and the weather is less predictable with changes in seasonal patterns. Drier conditions, lower snowfall, shorter winters, and lower river levels were also reported. These community member observations align with the results of this study.

Arizona↗
USGS2013

Resilience to stress and disturbance, and resistance to Bromus tectorum L. invasion in cold desert shrublands of western North America

Alien grass invasions in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are resulting in grass–fire cycles and ecosystem-level transformations that severely diminish ecosystem services. Our capacity to address the rapid and complex changes occurring in these ecosystems can be enhanced by developing an understanding of the environmental factors and ecosystem attributes that determine resilience of native ecosystems to stress and disturbance, and resistance to invasion. Cold desert shrublands occur over strong environmental gradients and exhibit significant differences in resilience and resistance. They provide an excellent opportunity to increase our understanding of these concepts. Herein, we examine a series of linked questions about (a) ecosystem attributes that determine resilience and resistance along environmental gradients, (b) effects of disturbances like livestock grazing and altered fire regimes and of stressors like rapid climate change, rising CO 2 , and N deposition on resilience and resistance, and (c) interacting effects of resilience and resistance on ecosystems with different environmental conditions. We conclude by providing strategies for the use of resilience and resistance concepts in a management context. At ecological site scales, state and transition models are used to illustrate how differences in resilience and resistance influence potential alternative vegetation states, transitions among states, and thresholds. At landscape scales management strategies based on resilience and resistance—protection, prevention, restoration, and monitoring and adaptive management—are used to determine priority management areas and appropriate actions.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2017

Rigorously valuing the role of coral reefs in coastal protection: An example from Maui, Hawaii, U.S.A.

The degradation of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, raises risks by exposing communities to flooding hazards. The protective services of these natural defenses are not assessed in the same rigorous, economic terms as artificial defenses such as seawalls, and therefore often not considered in decision-making. Here we present a new methodology that combines economic, ecological, and engineering tools to provide a rigorous financial valuation of the coastal protection benefits of coral reefs off Maui, Hawaii, USA. We follow risk-based valuation guidelines to quantitatively estimate the risk reduction benefits from coral reefs in terms of annual expected benefits in economic terms. Our ultimate goal is to identify how, where, and when coral reefs provide the most flood reduction benefits under current and future climates to inform reef conservation and management priorities.

Hawaii↗
USGS2017

Development of a robust analytical framework for assessing landbird trends, dynamics and relationships with environmental covariates in the North Coast and Cascades Network

During 2015-2016, we completed development of a new analytical framework for landbird population monitoring data from the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN). This new tool for analysis combines several recent advances in modeling population status and trends using point-count data and is designed to supersede the approach previously slated for analysis of trends in the NCCN and other networks, including the Sierra Nevada Network (SIEN). Advances supported by the new model-based approach include 1) the use of combined data on distance and time of detection to estimate detection probability without assuming perfect detection at zero distance, 2) seamless accommodation of variation in sampling effort and missing data, and 3) straightforward estimation of the effects of downscaled climate and other local habitat characteristics on spatial and temporal trends in landbird populations. No changes in the current field protocol are necessary to facilitate the new analyses. We applied several versions of the new model to data from each of 39 species recorded in the three mountain parks of the NCCN, estimating trends and climate relationships for each species during 2005-2014. Our methods and results are also reported in a manuscript in revision for the journal Ecosphere (hereafter, Ray et al.). Here, we summarize the methods and results outlined in depth by Ray et al., discuss benefits of the new analytical framework, and provide recommendations for its application to synthetic analyses of long-term data from the NCCN and SIEN. All code necessary for implementing the new analyses is provided within the Appendices to this report, in the form of fully annotated scripts written in the open-access programming languages R and JAGS.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2022

Supporting the development and use of native plant materials for restoration on the Colorado Plateau (Fiscal Year 2021 Report)

A primary focus of the Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program (CPNPP) is to identify and develop appropriate native plant materials (NPMs) for current and future restoration projects. Multiple efforts have characterized the myriad challenges inherent in providing appropriate seed resources to enable effective, widespread restoration and have identified a broad suite of research activities to provide the information necessary to overcome those challenges (e.g., Plant Conservation Alliance 2015; Breed et al. 2018; Winkler et al. 2018; McCormick et al. 2021). Many of the most complex information needs relate to identifying the appropriate sources of plant species that can successfully establish in dryland environments, like the Colorado Plateau, where low and highly variable precipitation is standard. Providing this information requires synergistic research efforts in which results from earlier investigations inform the design of subsequent investigations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center’s (SBSC’s) research activities to support CPNPP in FY21 followed the FY21 Statement of Work to support a research framework that is continually adapting based on the needs of the restoration community and results from previous investigations; the long-term research framework is outlined in the 2019-2023 5-Year Research Strategy (hereafter referred to as the 5-year plan). This research framework provides support for the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (Plant Conservation Alliance 2015), Biden-Harris Administration Executive Order 14008 (Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad), and Department of Interior Priority #4 (Working to conserve at least 30% each of our lands and waters by the year 2030). Research activities in FY21 centered on landscape genomics, implementing and monitoring a common garden experiment near Vernal, UT, conducting experimental treatments using the GRID (Germination for Restoration Information and Decision-making) framework, and initiating new genetics projects to investigate the impact of production techniques on plant materials and restoration treatments on native plant communities. These activities were supported by four biological science technicians. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic delayed some aspects of the FY21 workplan, especially for outside laboratory services. However, goals were largely met, and the overall progress of research remains on track with respect to the 5-year plan. While Dr. Rob Massatti was the only scientist supported by the SBSC-CPNPP agreement in FY21, other scientists, including Drs. John Bradford, Seth Munson, Mike Duniway, Sasha Reed, and Daniel Winkler, spent a considerable amount of time providing expertise and support for individual projects. Work activities performed in support of each 5-year plan goal are discussed in turn. Products resulting from FY21 research activities are reported in Appendix 1.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2024

Phenology forecasting models for detection and management of invasive annual grasses

Non-native annual grasses can dramatically alter fire frequency and reduce forage quality and biodiversity in the ecosystems they invade. Effective management techniques are needed to reduce these undesirable invasive species and maintain ecosystem services. Well-timed management strategies, such as grazing, that are applied when invasive grasses are active prior to native plants can control invasive species spread and reduce their impact; however, anticipating the timing of key phenological stages that are susceptible to management over vast landscapes is difficult, as the phenology of these species can vary greatly over time and space. To address this challenge, we created range-wide phenology forecasts for two problematic invasive annual grasses: cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ), and red brome ( Bromus rubens ). We tested a suite of 18 mechanistic phenology models using observations from monitoring experiments, volunteer science, herbarium records, timelapse camera imagery, and downscaled gridded climate data to identify the models that best predicted the dates of flowering and senescence of the two invasive grass species. We found that the timing of flowering and senescence of cheatgrass and red brome were best predicted by photothermal time models that had been adjusted for topography using gridded continuous heat-insolation load index values. Phenology forecasts based on these models can help managers make decisions about when to schedule management actions such as grazing to reduce undesirable invasive grasses and promote forage production, quality, and biodiversity in grasslands; to predict the timing of greatest fire risk after annual grasses dry out; and to select remote sensing imagery to accurately map invasive grasses across topographic and latitudinal gradients. These phenology models also have the potential to be operationalized for within-season or within-year decision support.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2019

Genetically-informed seed transfer zones for Pleuraphis jamesii, Sphaeralcea parvifolia, and Sporobolus cryptandrus across the Colorado Plateau and adjacent regions

(Massatti) Introduction: The majority of native plant materials (NPMs) utilized for restoration purposes are developed for widely distributed species that provide a variety of ecosystem services (Wood et al. 2015; Butterfield et al. 2017). Disturbed ecosystems benefit from the use of appropriate NPMs, which are those that display ecological fitness at the restoration site, are compatible with conspecifics and other members of the plant community, and that do not demonstrate invasive tendencies (Jones 2013). Furthermore, the use of appropriate NPMs can help address specific environmental challenges, rejuvenate ecosystem function, and improve the delivery of ecosystem services (Hughes 2008). While many NPMs have been developed for restoration (e.g., Aubry et al. 2005), there is interest in broadening the diversity of species available and the geographic representation of sources to provide appropriate choices in relation to the characteristics of any restoration site. In addition, researchers are providing guidance to managers and practitioners regarding how best to transfer NPMs across the landscape. For example, guidance on seed transfer has been derived from genecological studies, which utilize common gardens to correlate phenotypic variation to environmental gradients (summarized in Kilkenny 2015), molecular studies, which identify putative adaptive genetic loci and infer environmental drivers of variation (Shryock et al. 2017), and climate modeling studies, which can provide guidance when species-specific data are unavailable (Bower et al. 2014; Doherty et al. 2017). All of these approaches intend to improve the long-term viability of NPMs at restoration sites, thereby improving outcomes and stretching limiting restoration resources (e.g., time and money).

Colorado Plateau↗
USGS2022

What determines the effectiveness of Pinyon-Juniper clearing treatments? Evidence from the remote sensing archive and counter-factual scenarios

In the intermountain western US, expansion of Pinyon ( Pinus edulis) and Juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (PJ) into grasslands and shrublands is a pervasive phenomenon, and an example of the global trend towards enhanced woody growth in drylands. Due to the perceived impacts of these expansions on ecosystem services related to biodiversity, hydrology, soil stability, fire prevention, and livestock forage, mechanical and chemical PJ reduction treatments have been a long-standing practice in the region. More recently, PJ reduction practices have come under enhanced public scrutiny, due to potential impacts on PJ-dependent wildlife, risk of erosion due to soil disturbance, and cost effectiveness due to variable rates of long-term success. Moreover, there is growing interest in understanding the biotic, abiotic, and management conditions under which PJ reduction treatments are effective. Here, we evaluated PJ reduction treatment outcomes leveraging large, curated databases of land treatments, new remotely sensed fractional cover time-series products, gridded climate and soils data, and analytical approaches adopted from the econometric literature. From 302 treatment events and 1569 distinct treatment polygons we found evidence that treatments reduced tree cover and largely increased shrub and perennial herbaceous cover for 10 or more years. However, treatments were also associated with increases in annual, likely non-native, herbaceous cover . Importantly, we noted treatment outcomes varied by landscape context, with some soil and geomorphic settings exhibiting consistent returns to pre-treatment conditions within 10–15 years, and others exhibiting more persistent changes in functional type composition. Despite the overall trends we observed, there was considerable unexplained variability in outcomes from treatment to treatment, highlighting the need for caution and attention to local geomorphic and biological context in planning future treatments.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2009

Occurrence of viable avian influenza viruses in water and bed sediments from selected water bodies along the Atlantic Flyway, February and May 2006 and January 2007

Water and bed-sediment samples were collected from selected water bodies along the Atlantic Flyway and analyzed for the presence of viable avian influenza viruses. Samples were collected during February and May 2006 and January 2007 at U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuges in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland. Avian influenza viruses were detected in samples collected from the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge in Georgia during February 2006 and from the Santee National Wildlife Refuge in South Carolina and the Pee Dee National Wildlife Refuge in North Carolina during January 2007. Avian influenza virus was detected in water temperatures ranging from 11.8 to 12.7 degrees Celsius when birds were either present or had departed at least 10 days prior to sampling. Although the literature indicates that avian influenza virus persists in the environment more effectively at colder temperature regimes, these detections were made in a comparatively warmer climate at a time of the year when cooler water temperatures prevail.

Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina,↗
USGS2026

Columbia Basin pygmy rabbit recovery planning through structured decision making

The endangered Columbia Basin pygmy rabbit (CBPR) faces multiple threats, particularly increasing risk of larger and more intense wildfires due to climate change, emerging disease, and sagebrush habitat loss due to agriculture and development. Through the use of conservation breeding, the CBPR wild population grew from a low of 16 individuals captured in 2001 to over 100 individuals in two subpopulations in 2024. However, these subpopulations are geographically proximate, with potential risk that both subpopulations could be affected by a single wildfire or disease event. Additionally, a succession of setbacks in the breeding program has prompted a natural re-evaluation point for the CBPR conservation program. We undertook a structured decision-making (SDM) process with participants from both Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) and US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to develop a strategy that is sustainable and implementable for guiding management in the coming decades across the range of the CBPR, taking into account changing conditions and updated information. A population model that incorporated both demographic and high impact event uncertainties was developed to test how alternative strategies – defined by conservation breeding program, vaccination, and translocation components – affect CBPR population growth and cost objectives. Based on analysis of the model results, we identified the following actions that appear to have the greatest potential to allow WDFW and USFWS to meet their conservation objectives for CBPR: Continue conservation breeding program, and possibly expand to include an island subpopulation (an isolated, unfenced area that can serve as a source for rabbits while requiring fewer management inputs) Continue Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV2) annual vaccinations in both breeding and wild populations When juveniles are available for translocation, prioritize recovery areas that are in the establishing phase In addition, while not analyzed explicitly in the model, discussions during the SDM process led to the identification of the following actions, which the group considered to have potential to benefit the CBPR either directly or indirectly: Increase the amount of suitable habitat available to pygmy rabbits Increase protections for existing and potential recovery areas Design future monitoring to better estimate survival and reproduction, with an emphasis on understanding how these vital rates vary between wild and semi-captive individuals, between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, and as a function of habitat factors

BioRxiv↗
USGS2016

Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulnerability and estimation uncertainty will positively bias the year-to-year variance in productivity because raw age ratios are the product of sampling variation, the year-specific vulnerability, and year-specific reproductive success. Therefore, we estimated the effects of cumulative winter precipitation in the California Central Valley and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley on pintail ( Anas acuta ) and mallard ( Anas platyrhnchos ) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods to correct for sampling bias in productivity estimates and observation error in covariates. We applied the model to a hunter-collected parts survey implemented by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and band recoveries reported to the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory using data from 1961 to 2013. We compared our results to previous estimates that used simple linear regression on uncorrected age ratios from a smaller subset of years in pintail (1961–1985). Like previous analyses, we found large and consistent effects of population size and wetland conditions in prairie Canada on mallard productivity, and large effects of population size and mean latitude of the observed breeding population on pintail productivity. Unlike previous analyses, we report a large amount of uncertainty in the estimated effects of wintering-ground precipitation on pintail and mallard productivity, with considerable uncertainty in the sign of the estimated main effect, although the posterior medians of precipitation effects were consistent with past studies. We found more consistent estimates in the sign of an interaction effect between population size and precipitation, suggesting that wintering-ground precipitation has a larger effect in years of high population size, especially for pintail. When we used the estimated effects in a population model to derive a sustainable harvest and population size projection (i.e., a yield curve), there was considerable uncertainty in the effect of increased or decreased wintering-ground precipitation on sustainable harvest potential and population size. These results suggest that the mechanism of cross-seasonal effects between winter habitat and reproduction in ducks occurs through a reduction in the strength of density dependence in years of above-average wintering-ground precipitation. We suggest additional investigation of the underlying mechanisms and that habitat managers and decision-makers consider the level of uncertainty in these estimates when attempting to integrate habitat management and harvest management decisions. Collection of annual data on the status of wintering-ground habitat in a rigorous sampling framework would likely be the most direct way to improve understanding of mechanisms and inform management.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2026

Southeastern Utah Federal lands science needs survey

Evidence-based scientific information can help support defensible decision making in the management of public lands. This report sought to identify current (2024–25) Federal agency research needs in southeastern Utah and to synthesize common management challenges and questions across jurisdictional boundaries. We implemented a science needs assessment focused on lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (FS), and National Park Service (NPS) in southeastern Utah—the area delineated by BLM’s Canyon Country District Office, portions of the FS Manti-La Sal National Forest, and Southeast Utah Group NPS units. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers met with and surveyed BLM, NPS, and FS staff in 2024 and 2025 to understand their science needs and preferred modes of information delivery. The USGS’s approach may be unrepresentative in terms of which topic areas were addressed, but the responses nevertheless highlight challenges and high-priority research areas that could contribute positively to agency decision making. Common management challenges and areas where additional research could be beneficial to land managers include the effects of climate change, recreation effects and visitor behavior, hydrology and hydrologic changes due to anthropogenic pressures, and the capacity for inventory and monitoring across essentially all resource types. Research on site-specific restoration techniques and their outcomes was also a common theme. In this report we discuss ways in which researchers can increase the extent to which their work could be actionable for resource managers and provide suggestions for potential priority research areas for the study region.

Utah↗
USGS2003

Investigation of water quality in the Great Sand Dunes National Monument and Preserve, Saguache County, Colorado, February 1999 through September 2000: Qualifying for outstanding waters designation

Great Sand Dunes National Monument and Preserve is located on the eastern side of the San Luis Valley in south-central Colorado. The monument covers 60.4 square miles in Saguache and Alamosa Counties and lies at the base of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, where a unique combination of climate, topography, and hydrology has created and maintained the Nation?s tallest inland sand dunes. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains, which rise to more than 14,000 feet to the north and east of the dunes, are the source of several streams that flow around the dunes and eventually recharge the aquifer beneath the valley. Sand Creek and Medano Creeks are the largest of the streams in the monument that originate in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains; several ephemeral streams flow into Sand Creek and Medano Creek. Maintaining the high surface-water quality in the Great Sand Dunes National Monument and Preserve is identified as a critical issue by the National Park Service. Additionally, the National Park Service has indicated a desire to pursue an Outstanding Waters Designation, which offers the highest level of water-quality protection available under the Clean Water Act and Colorado regulations. This designation is designed to prevent any degradation from existing conditions (Chatman and others, 1997). Assessment is needed to evaluate whether the water quality of the streams in the monument meets the requirements for an Outstanding Waters Designation. Historically, prospecting and mining activities have occurred in the watersheds of Sand and Medano Creeks; currently, however, there is no mining activity in those watersheds. In addition, the camping and recreation that occur upstream from the monument on national preserve lands and water activities that occur in Medano Creek during the summer are a potential source of human-waste contamination. Figure 1. Location of study area, sampling sites, and indication of sites that meet or exceed instream standards. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Park Service, investigated the water quality at 15 sites (fig. 1) from February 1999 through September 2000 to identify baseline water-quality conditions and to determine if the water met standards to qualify for the Outstanding Waters Designation. This report describes current water-quality conditions in streams in the monument and compares the water-quality data to Colorado instream standards to assist the State of Colorado Water Quality Control Commission in the determination of qualification for Outstanding Waters Designation.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2021

Nearshore water quality and coral health indicators along the west coast of the Island of Hawaiʻi, 2010–2014

Coral reefs worldwide are experiencing rapid degradation in response to climate and land-use change, namely effects of warming sea-surface temperatures, contaminant runoff, and overfishing. Extensive coral bleaching caused by the steady rise of sea-surface temperatures is projected to increase, but our understanding and ability to predict where corals may be most resilient to this effect is limited owing to a lack of knowledge of nearshore habitat conditions and the role of compromised coral health in preconditioning bleaching vulnerability. On high islands and most atolls, fresh to brackish groundwater discharges to the coast through the beach face and seafloor, where it mixes with marine waters and commonly creates cool estuarine nearshore waters that are important to wildlife and ecosystem services that benefit people. Here, we summarize results of a study to evaluate the ecosystem services and effects of groundwater on coral reef health and the potential role of groundwater to maintain cold-water refugia that can buffer corals from thermal stress during temperature maxima. Across 75 kilometers of the west coastline of the Island of Hawaiʻi, paired time-series and discrete measurements of water quality, coral-community and colony size structures, and coral health indicators, including bleaching, at 33 stations grouped into 12 study areas were made from July 2010 to December 2013. The results show that nearshore water temperatures are depressed by groundwater across extensive areas of the nearshore. Persistent cold-water refugia ranging from 1 to 5 degrees Celsius below surrounding marine water temperatures are shown to be associated with identified groundwater inputs. Significant correlations were found between metrics of coral health and water temperature. Because areas of temperature refugia were notable along the west coast of the Island of Hawaiʻi and are identified by ecologists as increasingly important to valued wildlife, improved understanding of groundwater flux to the long-term resilience of coral reefs is likely important. In particular, evaluating the extent that the magnitude and timing of groundwater discharge across the nearshore mitigate thermal bleaching stress may help inform the fate of coral reefs projected to experience rising sea-surface temperatures worldwide.

Hawaii↗
USGS2018

Hydrologic conditions and simulation of groundwater and surface water in the Great Dismal Swamp of Virginia and North Carolina

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S Fish and Wildlife Service, has investigated the hydrology of the Great Dismal Swamp (Swamp) National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) in Virginia and North Carolina and developed a three-dimensional numerical model to simulate groundwater and surface-water hydrology. The model was developed with MODFLOW-NWT, a USGS numerical groundwater flow modeling program, in combination with the Surface-Water Routing Process, a software package that simulates dynamic surface-water flows, water control structure management, and groundwater/surface-water interactions. The steady-state model was calibrated to average spring conditions by using automated parameter estimation software (PEST) to reduce simulation errors and assess model parameter sensitivity. The model was then used to simulate wet and dry climatic conditions and a variety of hypothetical scenarios in which water levels in the Swamp were raised and lowered by simulated management of water control structures. Results of the model simulations indicate that, under average spring conditions, precipitation is the primary water input (92%); surface-water (5%) and groundwater (3%) inflows make up the remainder. The primary outflow (or loss) is evapotranspiration (55%), with surface outflows (about 41%) and groundwater outflow (about 4%) making up the remainder. Simulated adjustment of water control structure weir levels demonstrates that groundwater levels are affected by water levels in adjacent ditches and that surface-water and groundwater levels can be controlled through management of water control structures, allowing the Refuge to better manage fire risks and preserve forested-wetland ecosystems in the Refuge. The 13 water control structures proposed in the simulated scenario representing possible future conditions effectively raised simulated water levels in the northeastern corner of the study area, a goal of the Refuge management. Results of this study demonstrate use of MODFLOW with the Surface-Water Routing Process for simulating water management options in peat wetlands and will help Refuge managers to better understand existing hydrologic conditions, assess the hydrologic effects of planned changes to water control structures, and apply the new simulation tool to guide water management on the Refuge.

North Carolina↗
USGS2015

Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested that a long-term solution will require a significant reassessment of objectives to better reflect the comprehensive values of refuges to society. We discuss some future considerations to integrate these two problems into a single framework by developing novel optimization approaches for dynamic problems that account for uncertainty in future conditions.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2003

A Framework for Long-term Ecological Monitoring in Olympic National Park: Prototype for the Coniferous Forest Biome

This report is the result of a five-year collaboration between scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Olympic Field Station, and the natural resources staff of Olympic National Park to develop a comprehensive strategy for monitoring natural resources of Olympic National Park. Olympic National Park is the National Park Serviceʼs prototype monitoring park, representing parks in the coniferous forest biome. Under the umbrella of the National Park Serviceʼs prototype parks program, U.S. Geological Survey and Olympic National Park staffs are obligated to: develop strategies and designs for monitoring the long-term health and integrity of national park ecosystems with a significant coniferous forest component. design exportable monitoring protocols that can be used by other parks within the coniferous forest biome (i.e., parks having similar environments), and create a demonstration area and ʻcenter of excellenceʼ for assisting other parks in developing ecological monitoring programs. Olympic National Park is part of the North Coast and Cascades Network, a network of seven Pacific Northwestern park units created recently by the National Park Serviceʼs Inventory and Monitoring Program to extend the monitoring of ʻvital signsʼ of park health to all National Park Service units. It is our intent and hope that the monitoring strategies and conceptual models described here will meet the overall purpose of the prototype parks monitoring program in proving useful not only to Olympic National Park, but also to parks within the North Coast and Cascades Network and elsewhere. Part I contains the conceptual design and sampling framework for the prototype long-term monitoring program in Olympic National Park. In this section, we explore key elements of monitoring design that help to ensure the spatial, ecological, and temporal integration of monitoring program elements and discuss approaches used to design an ecosystem-based monitoring program. Basic monitoring components include ecosystem drivers, (e.g., climate, atmospheric inputs, human pressures), indicators of ecosystem integrity (e.g., biogeochemical indicators), known threats (e.g., impacts of introduced mountain goats), and focal or ʻkeyʼ species (e.g., rare or listed species, Roosevelt elk). Monitoring system drivers and key indicators of ecosystem integrity provide the long-term baseline needed to judge what constitutes ʻunnaturalʼ variation in park resources and provide the earliest possible warning of unacceptable change. Monitoring effects of known threats and the status of focal species will provide information useful to park managers for dealing with current park issues. In Part I we describe the process of identifying potential indicators of ecological condition and present conceptual models of park ecosystems. In addition we report results from several workshops held in conjunction with Olympic National Park aimed at identifying potential indicators of change in the parkʼs ecosystem. First, we describe the responses of Olympic National Park staff to the generic question, “What is the most important resource to monitor in Olympic National Park and why?” followed by the responses from resource and land managers from areas adjoining the park. We also catalogue the responses of various expert groups that we asked to help identify the most appropriate system drivers and indicators of change in the Olympic National Park ecosystems. Results of the workshops provided the justification for selecting basic indicators of ecosystem integrity, effects of current threats to park resources, and focal resources of parks to detect both the currently evident and unforeseeable changes in park resources. We conclude Part I by exploring several generic statistical issues relevant to monitoring natural resources in Olympic National Park. Specifically we discuss trade-offs associated with sampling extensively versus sampling intensively in smaller geographic regions and describe a conceptual framework to guide development of a generic sampling frame for monitoring. We recommend partitioning Olympic National Park into three zones of decreasing accessibility to maximize monitoring efficiency. We present examples of how the generic sampling frame could be used to help ensure spatial integration of individual monitoring projects. Part II of the report is a record of the potential monitoring questions and indicators identified to date in our workshops. The presentation is organized according to the major system drivers, components, and processes identified in the intermediate-level working model of the Olympic National Park ecosystem. For each component of the park system, we develop the need and justification for monitoring, articulate park management issues, and describe key resources and ecosystem functions. We also present a pictorial conceptual model of each ecological subsystem, identify monitoring questions, and list potential indicators for each monitoring question. We conclude each section by identifying linkages of indicators to other ecological subsystems in our general ecosystem model, spatial and temporal contexts for monitoring (where and how often to monitor), and research and development needs. Part II represents the most current detailed listing of potential indicators—the material for subsequent discussions of monitoring priorities and selection of indicators for protocol development. Collectively, the sections of this report contain a comprehensive list of the important monitoring questions and potential indicators as well as recommendations for designing an integrated monitoring program. In Part I, Chapter 6 we provide recommendations on how to proceed with the important next steps in the design process: establishing priorities among the many possible monitoring questions and indicators, and beginning to research and design effective long-term monitoring protocols.

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USGS1994

U.S. Geological Survey yearbook, fiscal year 1993: At work across the Nation

The need for earth science has never been more paramount. The devastating flooding of the Mississippi River this past year, strikingly portrayed on the cover and discussed in detail in this report (p. 37-42), was a sobering reminder of nature's elemental power. As a Nation, we face many environmental and economic challenges, such as natural hazards, that can be addressed effectively only through science. Water quality, resource assessments, climate change, and toxic wastes are all critical issues that can best be dealt with when approached from a sound scientific base. The goal of the U.S. Geological Survey is to provide hydrologic, geologic, and topographic information and understanding that contribute to the wise management of the Nation's natural resources and that promote the health, safety, and well-being of all Americans. FY1993 has proven to be a particularly challenging one for the USGS. We entered into a time of transition from the long-term leadership of Director Dallas Peck and Associate Director Doyle Frederick to the appointment of a new director. We thank Dallas and Doyle for their many years of service and for their support during the transition.

Yearbook↗