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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Evaluating the negative effect of benthic egg predators on bloater recruitment in northern Lake Michigan

As the only extant deepwater cisco in Lake Michigan, bloater is currently at record low levels of abundance. Several mechanisms to regulate their recruitment have been proposed, including skewed sex ratios, predation on their larvae by adult alewife, and climatic factors during early life history stages, but none has unequivocal support. In this research, we evaluated an alternative mechanism of egg predation that was supported by an inverse relationship between bloater recruitment and biomass of slimy sculpin , which are known to be effective egg predators. To that end, we used a combination of field sampling, laboratory experiments, and modeling to estimate the proportion of bloater eggs consumed by sculpins each year between 1973 and 2008. Monthly field sampling between January through May 2009-2010 (when bloater eggs were incubating) offshore of Frankfort (Michigan), Sturgeon Bay (Wisconsin), Two Rivers (Wisconsin), and Muskegon (Michigan) provided benthivore diets for subsequent laboratory processing. Identification and enumeration of stomach contents and subsequent genetic analyses of eggs revealed that the mean proportion of bloater eggs in slimy sculpin diets (N = 1016) equaled 0.04. Bloater eggs also were consumed by deepwater sculpins (N = 699) at a slightly lower mean proportion (0.02), and only one round goby diet among 552 enumerated revealed a bloater egg. Based on the diet results, we developed daily ration models to estimate consumption for both deepwater and slimy sculpins . We conducted feeding experiments to estimate gastric evacuation (GEVAC) for water temperatures ranging 2-5 °C, similar to those observed during egg incubation. GEVAC rates equaled 0.0115/ h for slimy sculpin and 0.0147/h for deepwater sculpin , and did not vary between 2.7 and 5.1 °C for either species or between prey types ( Mysis relicta and fish eggs) for slimy sculpin . Index of fullness [(g prey/g fish weight)100%] was estimated from sculpins sampled in bottom trawls in the same seasons and years as the diets, and varied with fish size (averaging 1.93% and 1.85% for slimy and deepwater sculpins , respectively). Estimates of daily consumption ranged from 0.2-0.8% of sculpin body weight. Annual estimates of bloater egg consumption predicted higher values for deepwater sculpin than slimy sculpin between 1973 and 2005. This pattern was reversed in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010 as slimy sculpin abundance increased while that of deepwater sculpin declined. The sum of sculpin consumption of bloater eggs exceeded 25% of bloater population egg production early (1975-1980) and late (2008-2010) in the time series. Despite the strong field pattern implicating egg predation by slimy sculpin , our consumption models failed to fully support this hypothesis. In particular, our results were unable to explain why bloater recruitment was relatively poor during 1995-2005 when the proportion of bloater eggs consumed was very low ( < 0.06). The results did, however, demonstrate that bloater recruitment was consistently poor when the proportion of eggs consumed was relatively high. In conclusion, consumption by native benthivores can be a contributing factor to poor recruitment of bloater, especially when slimy sculpin reach high levels of abundance. This result exemplifies the importance of ecosystem-based fishery management, given that the maintenance of healthy lake trout populations in the Great Lakes should control the abundance of slimy sculpin egg predators. In addition, future research will be required to fully understand the primary bottleneck to bloater recruitment in Lake Michigan so that efforts to stock and restore bloater in Lake Ontario have a greater probability of resulting in naturalized and sustainable populations.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2023

A conceptual workflow for projecting future riverine and coastal flood hazards to support the federal flood risk management standard

In 2021, the reinstatement of the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS) required federally funded projects to recognize potential increases in flood hazards over their service lives due to climate change or local anthropogenic perturbations. Recognizing that the state of the science had advanced since the implementation guidelines for this standard were published in 2015 (WRC, 2015, Appendix H), an interagency state-of-the-science review committee conceptualized a workflow to guide the mapping and risk communication of projected future flood hazards in both riverine and coastal settings. This five-element workflow connects climate, hydrologic, and hydraulic models, incorporates land and water management impacts and ongoing geomorphic changes, and can be tailored to the unique nature of different agency needs and resources. These conceptual workflows also provide a basis for a Climate-Informed Science Approach (CISA) implementation roadmap that identifies incremental steps for addressing the research and data gaps elucidated in our review. Many of these incremental steps present opportunities for interagency collaboration that would facilitate the rollout of the FFRMS in diverse riverine and coastal settings of the United States. We conduct case-study thought experiments to evaluate the implementation of the riverine and coastal workflows at three different locations in the United States: central Indiana, Galveston, Texas, and a small coastal community in western Alaska (Shaktoolik). Our thought experiments consider different project horizons, data availability, failure consequences, technical training requirements, and computational resources.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2022

How shall we meet? Embracing the opportunities of virtual conferencing

The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic triggered dramatic shifts in the way that ecologists teach, research, and interact (e.g., Cooke et al. 2021 ). As the world now adjusts to a “new normal” era, there is notable and open discussion about the merits or desire to return to practices used prior to the pandemic (e.g., Roulson 2021 ). A dominant aspect of these discussions is when and how researchers can return to the practice of large, centralized, in-person conferences that have been the primary mode of professional interaction for decades. While questions of safety are naturally paramount and will guide decision making for some time, there remains the broader question of whether and how to implement virtual and hybrid formats in the future. Discussions about the return to in-person meetings and expressed resentment about the use of virtual formats (Stevens and Murphy 2021 ) that we routinely see circulated by professional organizations and on social media assume that the latter is a lesser-quality version of the former. However, we put forward that these sentiments neglect the diversity of opinions among scientists and evidence of prevalent, positive attitudes about the use of virtual (and possibly, as yet undeveloped) modes of conferences. For example, 74% of more than 900 researchers surveyed by the journal Nature during the initial phase of the pandemic expressed a desire for virtual conferences to remain in practice even when travel restrictions were eased (Remmel 2021 ). Other surveys have shown that scientists are highly interested in alternative conference formats due to concerns about climate change (Nursey-Bray et al. 2019 ; Haage 2020 ) and access (Niner and Wassermann 2021 ). These data indicate most researchers have personal circumstances or perspectives that recognize the value of a broader discussion about how conferences and interactions among researchers can be shaped.

Fisheries Magazine↗

USGS2002

Integrating satellite and climate data for U.S. drought mapping and monitoring: First steps

Although droughts are normal, recurring climate phenomena, they challenge our current ability to plan, predict, monitor, and provide relief to drought stricken areas. Because of the spatial and temporal variability of droughts, we need to improve the tools available to map and monitor them on many scales from local to national. A team of researchers from the US Geological Survey’s EROS Data Center, the National Drought Mitigation Center, and the High Plains Regional Climate Center are developing a prototype system for regional-scale drought monitoring for the conterminous US. This project is in its first year of development. The ultimate goal is to deliver near real-time geo-referenced information (in the form of maps and data) about drought-impacted areas in the US, using the Internet as a primary delivery mechanism. For the pilot study, the project team is developing methods to integrate satellite data and traditional climate data over the central US. Although, these two information sources reflect different spatial resolutions they should prove complementary for the mapping goals of the project. During the summer of 2002, much of the Great Plains and the Southwest U.S. experienced drought conditions. We initiated a case study in South Dakota and Nebraska to develop and test methods.

Nebraska, South Dakota↗

USGS2013

Comparison of elevation and remote sensing derived products as auxiliary data for climate surface interpolation

Climate models may be limited in their inferential use if they cannot be locally validated or do not account for spatial uncertainty. Much of the focus has gone into determining which interpolation method is best suited for creating gridded climate surfaces, which often a covariate such as elevation (Digital Elevation Model, DEM) is used to improve the interpolation accuracy. One key area where little research has addressed is in determining which covariate best improves the accuracy in the interpolation. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation was carried out in determining which covariates were most suitable for interpolating climatic variables (e.g. precipitation, mean temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature). We compiled data for each climate variable from 1950 to 1999 from approximately 500 weather stations across the Western United States (32° to 49° latitude and −124.7° to −112.9° longitude). In addition, we examined the uncertainty of the interpolated climate surface. Specifically, Thin Plate Spline (TPS) was used as the interpolation method since it is one of the most popular interpolation techniques to generate climate surfaces. We considered several covariates, including DEM, slope, distance to coast (Euclidean distance), aspect, solar potential, radar, and two Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A tenfold cross-validation was applied to determine the uncertainty of the interpolation based on each covariate. In general, the leading covariate for precipitation was radar, while DEM was the leading covariate for maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures. A comparison to other products such as PRISM and WorldClim showed strong agreement across large geographic areas but climate surfaces generated in this study (ClimSurf) had greater variability at high elevation regions, such as in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2025

How can we sea change? Audience subgroups and psychological cognitions to target in action-oriented ocean change communication

Climate change’s impacts on the oceans (“ocean change”) threaten people globally. Climate action is needed at multiple scales, from individual to collective action, and yet there is limited research on what motivates this action in response to ocean change. In this study, we conducted an online survey of residents of the state of Oregon, United States ( n = 1414), to assess concerns, personal importance, and risk perceptions regarding ocean change and explore potential psychological cognitions to target in action-oriented communication efforts. Our latent class analysis identified four distinct audience subgroups ranging from individuals who are Doubtful (9 %) about ocean change to those who are Cautious (20 %), Concerned (33 %), and Alarmed (38 %). Audience subgroups varied in their climate action intentions and associated psychological cognitions (i.e., psychological distance, efficacy beliefs, social norm perceptions). The climate action intentions of the Alarmed and Concerned were positively predicted by all cognitions, those of the Cautious were significantly predicted by social norms ( β = .15, p = .002) and efficacy beliefs ( β = .34, p < .001), and those of the Doubtful were only predicted by efficacy beliefs ( β = .23, p < .001). Across all four audiences, efficacy beliefs were strongly associated with intended climate action ( β = .30, p < .001), suggesting efficacy beliefs may be a practical cognition to target in broad audience communication efforts on ocean change. These findings reinforce the importance of targeting specific psychological cognitions and, ideally, distinct audiences in ocean change communication efforts intending to motivate widespread climate action.

Marine Policy↗

USGS2004

Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Little Ice Age (14th-19th centuries A.D.) glacial maxima and 20th century retreat have been well documented in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. However, the influence of regional and Pacific Basin driven climate variability on these events is poorly understood. We use tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial accumulation and summer ablation, respectively, over the past three centuries. These records show that the 1850's glacial maximum was likely produced by ???70 yrs of cool/wet summers coupled with high snowpack. Post 1850, glacial retreat coincides with an extended period (>50 yr) of summer drought and low snowpack culminating in the exceptional events of 1917 to 1941 when retreat rates for some glaciers exceeded 100 m/yr. This research highlights potential local and ocean-based drivers of glacial dynamics, and difficulties in separating the effects of global climate change from regional expressions of decadal-scale climate variability. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Montana↗

USGS2000

Effects of climate variability and human activities on Chesapeake Bay and the implications for ecosystem restoration

Chesapeake Bay, the Nation’s largest and most productive estuary (fig. 1), faces complex environmental issues related to nutrients and oxygen, turbidity and sedimentation, toxic dinoflagellates, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a partnership among the Chesapeake Bay Commission, the Federal Government, the District of Columbia, and the States of Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. The CBP is working to preserve, restore, and protect the bay’s living resources, vital habitats, and water quality, to protect human health, and to promote sound land-use policies in the watershed. The CBP began to set restoration goals for the ecosystem in the mid-1980’s and is now refining current goals and setting new ones as part of a new bay agreement— Chesapeake 2000. As the CBP sets restoration goals for the next 10–20 years, it will be critical to understand the long-term changes of the bay ecosystem due to climate variability and the influence of past and future human activities. For the past 4 years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been engaged in research designed to provide objective scientific answers to questions about long-term changes in the bay ecosystem: What paleoecological and geochemical methods are best for documenting trends in the bay ecosystem? How does climate variability, including drought, affect the bay? What are historical trends in dissolved oxygen? What is the relationship between sedimentation and water clarity, and what is the effect of turbidity on living resources? How have past land-use changes affected bay habitats and living resources?

Chesapeake Bay Watershed↗

USGS2017

Forecasting weed distributions using climate data: a GIS early warning tool

The number of invasive exotic plant species establishing in the United States is continuing to rise. When prevention of exotic species from entering into a country fails at the national level and the species establishes, reproduces, spreads, and becomes invasive, the most successful action at a local level is early detection followed eradication. We have developed a simple geographic information system (GIS) analysis for developing watch lists for early detection of invasive exotic plants that relies upon currently available species distribution data coupled with environmental data to aid in describing coarse-scale potential distributions. This GIS analysis tool develops environmental envelopes for species based upon the known distribution of a species thought to be invasive and represents the first approximation of its potential habitat while the necessary data are collected to perform more in-depth analyses. To validate this method we looked at a time series of species distributions for 66 species in Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountain counties. The time series analysis presented here did select counties that the invasive exotic weeds invaded in subsequent years, showing that this technique could be useful in developing watch lists for the spread of particular exotic species. We applied this same habitat-matching model based upon bioclimaric envelopes to 100 invasive exotics with various levels of known distributions within continental U.S. counties. For species with climatically limited distributions, county watch lists describe county-specific vulnerability to invasion. Species with matching habitats in a county would be added to that county's list. These watch lists can influence management decisions for early warning, control prioritization, and targeted research to determine specific locations within vulnerable counties. This tool provides useful information for rapid assessment of the potential distribution based upon climate envelopes of current distributions for new invasive exotic species.

Invasive Plant Science and Management↗

USGS2016

Climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages

Climate is a critical driver of many fish populations, assemblages, and aquatic communities. However, direct observational studies of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes are rare. In this synthesis, we (1) summarize climate trends that may influence North American inland fish populations and assemblages, (2) compile 31 peer-reviewed studies of documented climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages, and (3) highlight four case studies representing a variety of observed responses ranging from warmwater systems in the southwestern and southeastern United States to coldwater systems along the Pacific Coast and Canadian Shield. We conclude by identifying key data gaps and research needs to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches to managing North American inland fishes and fisheries in a changing climate.

Fisheries↗

USGS2020

Ecological effects of climate-driven salinity variation in the San Francisco Estuary: Can we anticipate and manage the coming changes?

Climate change-driven sea level rise and altered precipitation regimes are predicted to alter patterns of salt intrusion within the San Francisco Estuary. A central question is: Can we use existing knowledge and future projections to predict and manage the anticipated ecological impacts? This was the subject of a 2018 symposium entitled “Ecological and Physiological Impacts of Salinization of Aquatic Systems from Human Activities.” The symposium brought together an inter-disciplinary group of scientists and researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers. Here, we summarize and review the presentations and discussions that arose during the symposium. From a historical perspective, salt intrusion has changed substantially over the past 10,000 years as a result of changing climate patterns, with additional shifts from recent anthropogenic effects. Current salinity patterns in the San Francisco Estuary are driven by a suite of hydrodynamic processes within the given contexts of water management and geography. Based on climate projections for the coming century, significant changes are expected in the processes that determine the spatial and temporal patterns of salinity. Given that native species—including fishes such as the Delta Smelt and Sacramento Splittail—track favorable habitats, exhibit physiological acclimation, and can adaptively evolve, we present a framework for assessing their vulnerability to altered salinity in the San Francisco Estuary. We then present a range of regulatory and structural management tools that are available to control patterns of salinity within the San Francisco Estuary. Finally, we identify major research priorities that can help fill critical gaps in our knowledge about future salinity patterns and the consequences of climate change and sea level rise. These research projects will be most effective with strong linkages and communication between scientists and researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers.

California↗

USGS1983

The past is the key to the future

A new major frontier of geological research, which was initiated in the 1970's, involves predicting future geologic trends or events through study of the present and past, rather than trying to understand the past, often using what one knows about the present. Like most scientific frontiers, this one began from practical considerations—environmental concerns. The lack of formal recognition of this frontier results from fragmentation among many Federal agencies and highly focused mission-oriented programs ( e.g. , earthquake prediction, CO 2 , nuclear-energy safety, etc.). Most programs aim to predict only the next 50–100 years, but much longer periods of the past need to be studied to do this. Nuclear-waste disposal has sometimes been considered in terms of the next million years, a period of time permitting significant and broad geologic changes. Decreasing public interest in environmental concerns relegates many questions from the realm of applied research back to that of basic research. Most of these questions are so fascinating, however, that the frontier is still worth pursuing. Such questions include whether a phenomenon will or will not take place and the rates at which it can develop ( e.g. , how fast do rifts form, how fast can a caldera event begin, and how quickly can a glacial maximum arrive?). Common elements of all studies include the historic record, trends in the Quaternary, analogues in various periods of the geologic time scale, and allowance for phenomena never experienced before. Other examples of studies include the Cretaceous as a period of a climatic extreme, an especially interesting time period; establishing the amount of paleocloudiness, a particularly challenging and important research area; acid rain as a possible new phenomenon. Geochemistry has much to contribute to this frontier science.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2006

The hydrology of northern peatlands as affected by biogenic gas: Current developments and research needs

Recent research indicates that accumulation and release of biogenic gas from northern peatlands may substantially affect future climate. Sudden release of free-phase gas bubbles into the atmosphere may preclude the conversion of methane to carbon dioxide in the uppermost oxic layer of the peat, resulting in greater contribution of methane to the atmosphere than is currently estimated. The hydrology of these peatlands also affects and is affected by this process, especially when gas is released suddenly and episodically. Indirect hydrological evidence indicates that ebullitive gas releases are relatively frequent in some peatlands and time-averaged rates may be significantly greater than diffusive releases. Estimates of free-phase gas contained in peat have ranged from 0 to nearly 20% of the peat volume. Abrupt changes in the volume of gas may alter hydraulic gradients and movement of water and solutes in peat, which in turn could alter composition and fluxes of the gas. Peat surfaces also move vertically and horizontally in response to accumulation and release of free-phase gas. Future research should address the distribution, temporal variability, and relative significance of ebullition in peatlands and the consequent hydrological responses to these gas-emission events. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2014

Disentangling the effects of climate and landscape change on bird population trends in the western U.S. and Canada

Changes in climate are often assumed result in changes to species’ ranges, with potential impacts on natural system functioning and ecosystem services. ‘Climate envelope models’, which rely on correlations between climate and species distributions, have been used to predict the future of biodiversity under these assumptions. However, other factors including land-cover, dispersal ability and interspecific competition and facilitation may play an important role in driving species distributions and population trends either alone or in combination with climate. In an ongoing project, we used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance to develop climate envelope and land-use models for 161 species in order to provide a multi-species test of the degree to which climate envelope versus land-use models are useful in predicting species distributions and population trends of birds in forest ecosystems of the western U.S. and Canada. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can be used for some species to predict changes through time, and that changes in climate have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America. For other species, models using land-use variables including raw remote-sensing variables may provide the best predictions for abundance change. The results of this research showing the reliability of models across multiple species will aid managers in understanding which species are most vulnerable to changes from climate, land-use change and their interaction.

Final Report↗

USGS2018

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of flooded seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands in San Joaquin and Tulare Basins during fall-winter. The main objective of this research is to provide decision-support for achieving waterbird conservation goals in the valley and to inform CVJV's regional conservation planning.

California↗

USGS2022

Drought and water management in ancient Maya society

Paleoclimate research in the Maya region of Mesoamerica provides compelling evidence of drought during key periods of cultural transition in Maya society. These include the transition from the Preclassic to the Classic, and from Classic to the Postclassic. Previous research emphasized a causal relationship between drought and cultural change, or so-called “collapse” in the Maya region. Recent advances in the range and precision of climate-sensitive proxies and the development of new archives have enabled quantitative reconstructions of past hydroclimate, as well as providing evidence of high impact, short-duration events, such as tropical cyclones. Simultaneously, archaeological research has unearthed widespread evidence of technologies used by the Maya to exert control over water resources in urban, rural, and agricultural settings. Evidence suggests that many of these water features were in use for multiple generations, possibly centuries, and many were constructed during the Terminal Preclassic and Terminal Classic periods. We suggest that, given the availability of new archaeological and paleoclimate records, these data can be combined to identify the full complexity of Maya adaptation to hydroclimate variability to emphasize adaptation and resilience to both water scarcity and over-abundance (e.g., flooding). Such syntheses, which can offer lessons for present-day efforts to grapple with regional climate change, will benefit from additional studies in data-poor zones of the Maya region, as well as public archiving of paleoclimate and archaeological data.

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environm↗

USGS2020

Bellwether sites for evaluating changes in landslide frequency and magnitude in cryospheric mountainous terrain: A call for systematic, long-term observations to decipher the impact of climate change

Permafrost and glaciers are being degraded by the warming effects of climate change. The impact that this degradation has on slope stability in mountainous terrain is the subject of ongoing research efforts. The relatively new availability of high-resolution (≤ 10 m) imagery with worldwide coverage and short (≤ 30 days) repeat acquisition times, as well as the emerging field of environmental seismology, presents opportunities for making remote, systematic observations of landslides in cryospheric mountainous terrain. I reviewed the literature and evaluated landslide activity in existing imagery to select five ~ 5000-km 2 sites where long-term, systematic observations could take place. The five proposed sites are the northern and eastern flanks of the Northern Patagonia Ice Field, the Western European Alps, the eastern Karakoram Range in the Himalayan Mountains, the Southern Alps of New Zealand, and the Fairweather Range in Southeast Alaska. Systematic observations of landslide occurrence, triggers, size, and travel distance at these sites, especially if coupled with observations from in situ instrumental monitoring, could lead to a better understanding of changes in slope stability induced by climate change. The suggested sites are not meant to be absolute and unalterable. Rather, they are intended as a starting point and discussion starter for new work in this expanding landslide research frontier.

Landslides↗

USGS2016

Pika ( Ochotona princeps ) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region

Although biotic responses to contemporary climate change are spatially pervasive and often reflect synergies between climate and other ecological disturbances, the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat extent for species persistence remains poorly understood. To address this shortcoming, we performed surveys for American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) at > 910 locations in 3 geographic regions of western North America during 2014 and 2015, complementing earlier modern (1994–2013) and historical (1898–1990) surveys. We sought to compare extirpation rates and the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat area for pikas in a mainland-versus-islands framework. In each region, we found widespread evidence of distributional loss—local extirpations, upslope retractions, and encounter of only old sign. Locally comprehensive surveys suggest extirpation of O. princeps from 5 of 9 new sites from the hydrographic Great Basin and from 11 of 29 sites in northeastern California. Although American pikas were recorded as recently as 2011 in Zion National Park and in 2012 from Cedar Breaks National Monument in Utah, O. princeps now appears extirpated from all reported localities in both park units. Multiple logistic regressions for each region suggested that both temperature-related and water-balance-related variables estimated from DAYMET strongly explained pika persistence at sites in the Great Basin and in Utah but not in the Sierra-Cascade “mainland” portion of northeastern California. Conversely, talus-habitat area did not predict American pika persistence in the Great Basin or Utah but strongly predicted persistence in the Sierra-Cascade mainland. These results not only add new areas to our understanding of long-term trend of the American pika’s distribution, but also can inform decisions regarding allocation of conservation effort and management actions. Burgeoning research on species such as O. princeps has collectively demonstrated the heterogeneity and nuance with which climate can act on the distribution of mountain-dwelling mammals.

Journal of Mammalogy↗