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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Biological response to climate change in the Arctic Ocean: The view from the past

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid climatic changes including higher ocean temperatures, reduced sea ice, glacier and Greenland Ice Sheet melting, greater marine productivity, and altered carbon cycling. Until recently, the relationship between climate and Arctic biological systems was poorly known, but this has changed substantially as advances in paleoclimatology, micropaleontology, vertebrate paleontology, and molecular genetics show that Arctic ecosystem history reflects global and regional climatic changes over all timescales and climate states (10 3 –10 7 years). Arctic climatic extremes include 25°C hyperthermal periods during the Paleocene-Eocene (56–46 million years ago, Ma), Quaternary glacial periods when thick ice shelves and sea ice cover rendered the Arctic Ocean nearly uninhabitable, seasonally sea-ice-free interglacials and abrupt climate reversals. Climate-driven biological impacts included large changes in species diversity, primary productivity, species’ geographic range shifts into and out of the Arctic, community restructuring, and possible hybridization, but evidence is not sufficient to determine whether or when major episodes of extinction occurred.

arktos↗
USGS2020

Restoration at the landscape scale as a means of mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Purpose of Review Although landscape-scale restoration efforts are gaining traction worldwide, their success is generally unknown. We review landscape-scale restorations to gain insight to whether focal ecological outcomes have been achieved, in the face of changing environmental conditions. Recent Findings Only 9% of the 477 articles that resulted from our search were studies of landscape-scale restorations. The majority (73%) of the landscape restorations from our study have occurred since the 1990s, indicating that this type of restoration has gained in popularity in the last 30 years. Furthermore, 67% of these restoration studies occurred in a single country: China. Many scientific studies have addressed the ability of a species to shift ranges with climate change, yet few of the landscape-scale restoration studies used for our study addressed this question. Instead, 87% of the studies focused on ecosystem function, rather than community-level processes, as a result of restoration. Summary There is a clear need for more research to be undertaken on the ecological outcomes of landscape-scale restorations to understand whether they enable species and communities to shift their ranges or adapt to climate change. Conservation practitioners could utilize our decision matrix as a tool to guide restoration of individual sites within a landscape context, as well as current and future climatic conditions, to guide ecological outcomes of interest. Optimal biodiversity maintenance requires habitat conservation in concert with restoration activities at the landscape scale, and the latter, likely increasingly so in a world of changing climate.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗
USGS2024

Declining ecological resilience and invasion resistance under climate change in the sagebrush region, United States

In water-limited dryland ecosystems of the Western United States, climate change is intensifying the impacts of heat, drought, and wildfire. Disturbances often lead to increased abundance of invasive species, in part, because dryland restoration and rehabilitation are inhibited by limited moisture and infrequent plant recruitment events. Information on ecological resilience to disturbance (recovery potential) and resistance to invasive species can aid in addressing these challenges by informing long-term restoration and conservation planning. Here, we quantified the impacts of projected future climate on ecological resilience and invasion resistance (R&R) in the sagebrush region using novel algorithms based on ecologically relevant and climate-sensitive predictors of climate and ecological drought. We used a process-based ecohydrological model to project these predictor variables and resulting R&R indicators for two future climate scenarios and 20 climate models. Results suggested widespread future R&R decreases (24%–34% of the 1.16 million km 2 study area) that are generally consistent among climate models. Variables related to rising temperatures were most strongly linked to decreases in R&R indicators. New continuous R&R indices quantified responses to climate change; particularly useful for areas without projected change in the R&R category but where R&R still may decrease, for example, some of the areas with a historically low R&R category. Additionally, we found that areas currently characterized as having high sagebrush ecological integrity had the largest areal percentage with expected declines in R&R in the future, suggesting continuing declines in sagebrush ecosystems. One limitation of these R&R projections was relatively novel future climatic conditions in particularly hot and dry areas that were underrepresented in the training data. Including more data from these areas in future updates could further improve the reliability of the projections. Overall, these projected future declines in R&R highlight a growing challenge for natural resource managers in the region, and the resulting spatially explicit datasets provide information that can improve long-term risk assessments, prioritizations, and climate adaptation efforts.

western United States↗
USGS2000

Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change

Simulations of future climate using general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. Of less certainty is the extent to which regional scale (i.e., sub-GCM grid) environmental processes will be affected. In this chapter, a range of downscaling techniques are critiqued. Then a relatively simple (yet robust) statistical downscaling technique and its use in the modelling of future runoff scenarios for three river basins in the Sierra Nevada, California, is described. This region was selected because GCM experiments driven by combined greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings consistently show major changes in the hydro-climate of the southwest United States by the end of the 21st century. The regression-based downscaling method was used to simulate daily rainfall and temperature series for streamflow modelling in three Californian river basins under current-and future-climate conditions. The downscaling involved just three predictor variables (specific humidity, zonal velocity component of airflow, and 500 hPa geopotential heights) supplied by the U.K. Meteorological Office couple ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM2) for the grid point nearest the target basins. When evaluated using independent data, the model showed reasonable skill at reproducing observed area-average precipitation, temperature, and concomitant streamflow variations. Overall, the downscaled data resulted in slight underestimates of mean annual streamflow due to underestimates of precipitation in spring and positive temperature biases in winter. Differences in the skill of simulated streamflows amongst the three basins were attributed to the smoothing effects of snowpack on streamflow responses to climate forcing. The Merced and American River basins drain the western, windward slope of the Sierra Nevada and are snowmelt dominated, whereas the Carson River drains the eastern, leeward slope and is a mix of rainfall runoff and snowmelt runoff. Simulated streamflow in the American River responds rapidly and sensitively to daily-scale temperature and precipitation fluctuations and errors; in the Merced and Carson Rivers, the response to the same short-term influences is much less. Consequently, the skill of simulated flows was significantly lower in the American River model than in the Carson and Merced. The physiography of the three basins also accounts for differences in their sensitivities to future climate change. Increases in winter precipitation exceeding +100% coupled with mean temperature rises greater than +2°C result in increased winter streamflows in all three basins. In the Merced and Carson basins, these streamflow increases reflect large changes in winter snowpack, whereas the streamflow changes in the lower elevation American basin are driven primarily by rainfall runoff. Furthermore, reductions in winter snowpack in the American River basin, owing to less precipitation falling as snow and earlier melting of snow at middle elevations, lead to less spring and summer streamflow. Taken collectively, the downscaling results suggest significant changes to both the timing and magnitude of streamflows in the Sierra Nevada by the end of the 21st Century. In the higher elevation basins, the HadCM2 scenario implies more annual streamflow and more streamflow during the spring and summer months that are critical for water-resources management in California. Depending on the relative significance of rainfall runoff and snowmelt, each basin responds in its own way to regional climate forcing. Generally, then, climate scenarios need to be specified — by whatever means — with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to capture subtle orographic influences if projections of climate-change responses are to be useful and reproducible.

California↗
USGS2024

Using climate-fire analog mapping to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildland fire in protected areas of the conterminous US

Potential changes in wildland fire regimes due to anthropogenic climate change can be projected using data from climate models, but directly applying these meteorological variables to long-term planning and adaptive management activities may be difficult for decision makers. Analog mapping, in contrast, creates more intuitive assessments of changing fire regimes that also recognize the complex, multivariate, and multi-scalar nature of ecosystems. Here, we use data from 20 downscaled climate models under two climate forcing scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to identify and map future climate-fire analogs for 655 protected areas in the conterminous U.S. based on annual temperature, cumulative precipitation amount and seasonality, and fire regime potentials derived from a simple process-based fire frequency model. Patterns of analogs were heavily influenced by gradients in latitude and topography, with longer time frames (end-of-century conditions) and the more extreme climate forcing scenario resulting in greater analog distances and more ensemble entropy (i.e., less consensus among climate models regarding the closest analog for a given management unit). Finer scale analyses for three protected areas (Yellowstone and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks, White Mountain National Forest) illustrate how climate-fire analog mapping can improve insight into the types of ecosystem responses that might occur under similar management conditions. Federally protected areas such as national parks, forests, and wildlife refuges have long served as reference sites for the study of fire regimes, a role that is likely to continue because many of these units are managed to allow at least some ecosystem processes to operate independently. The results suggest that analog mapping approaches are well-suited as part of qualitative assessments within climate- and fire-aware adaptive management processes. The use of analogs to depict relatable, real-world depictions of possible ecosystem changes in a given place, can help managers make more strategic choices about when and where to resist, accept, or direct climate change-driven ecological change.

Global Environmental Change Advances↗
USGS2024

Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of desert reptiles and amphibians: Assisted migration and acclimation rescue from extirpation

Recent climate change should result in expansion of species to northern or high elevation range margins, and contraction at southern and low elevation margins in the northern hemisphere, because of local extirpations or range shifts or both. We combined museum occurrence records from both the continental U.S. and Mexico with a new eco-physiological model of extinction developed for lizard families of the world to predict the distributions of 30 desert-endemic reptile and amphibian species under climate change scenarios. The model predicts that 38 % of local populations will go extinct in the next 50 years, across all 30 species. However, extinctions may be attenuated in forested sites and by the presence of montane environments in contemporary ranges. Of the 30 species, three were at very high risk of extinction as a result of their thermal limits being exceeded, which illustrates the predictive value of ecophysiological modeling approaches for conservation studies. In tandem with global strategies of limiting CO2 emissions, we propose urgent regional management strategies for existing and new reserves that are targeted at three species: Barred Tiger Salamander (Ambystomatidae: Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi), Desert Short-horned Lizard (Phrynosomatidae: Phrynosoma ornatissimum), and Morafka's Desert Tortoise (Testudinidae: Gopherus morafkai), which face a high risk of extinction by 2070. These strategies focus on assisted migration and preservation within climatic refugia, such as high-elevation and forested habitats. We forecast where new reserves should be established by merging our model of extinction risk with gap analysis. We also highlight that acclimation (i.e., phenotypic plasticity) could ameliorate risk of extinction but is rarely included in ecophysiological models. We use Ambystoma salamanders to show how acclimation can be incorporated into such models of extinction risk.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2013

Potential effects of climate change on inland glacial lakes and implications for lake-dependent biota in Wisconsin: final report April 2013

The economic vitality and quality of life of many northern Wisconsin communities is closely associated with the ecological condition of the abundant water resources in the region. Climate change models predict warmer temperatures, changes to precipitation patterns, and increased evapotranspiration in the Great Lakes region. Recently (1950-2006), many regions of Wisconsin have experienced warming, and precipitation has generally increased except in far northern Wisconsin. Modeling conducted by the University of Wisconsin Nelson Environmental Institute Center for Climate Research predicts an increase in annual temperature by the middle of the 21st century of approximately 6° F statewide, and an increase in precipitation of 1”–2”. However, summer precipitation in the northern part of the state is expected to be less and winter precipitation will be greater. By the end of the 21st century, the magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to intensify. Such climatic changes have altered, and would further alter hydrological, chemical, and physical properties of inland lakes. Lake-dependent wildlife sensitive to changes in water quality, are particularly susceptible to lake quality-associated habitat changes and are likely to suffer restrictions to current breeding distributions under some climate change scenarios. We have selected the common loon (Gavia immer) to serve as a sentinel lake-dependent piscivorous species to be used in the development of a template for linking primary lake-dependent biota endpoints (e.g., decline in productivity and/or breeding range contraction) to important lake quality indicators. In the current project, we evaluate how changes in freshwater habitat quality (specifically lake clarity) may impact common loon lake occupancy in Wisconsin under detailed climate-change scenarios. In addition, we employ simple land-use/land cover and habitat scenarios to illustrate the potential interaction of climate and land-use/land cover effects. The methods employed here provide a template for studies where integration of physical and biotic models is used to project future conditions under various climate and land use change scenarios. Findings presented here project the future conditions of lakes and loons within an important watershed in northern Wisconsin – of importance to water resource managers and state citizens alike.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2001

Eolian sediment responses to late Quaternary climate changes: Temporal and spatial patterns in the Sahara

This paper presents a compilation of eolian-based records of late Quaternary climate changes in the Sahara. Although the data are relatively sparse, when viewed as a whole, they reveal a general pattern of widespread eolian sediment mobilization prior to 11,000 cal. years BP, eolian sediment stabilization from 11,000 to 5000 cal. years BP, and a return to widespread eolian sediment mobilization after 5000 cal. years BP. Furthermore, an eolian-based record from southern Tunisia reveals the existence of millennial-scale changes in eolian sediment behavior. These millennial-scale variations provide examples of eolian sediment responses to climate changes at a scale intermediate between seasonal and orbital ('Milankovitch') changes, and they are also coincident with abrupt atmospheric and oceanic changes. The general synchroneity of the eolian stratigraphic records and their coincidence with various oceanic and atmospheric changes suggest that global forcing mechanisms have influenced late Quaternary eolian sediment behavior in the Sahara. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2010

Estimating salinity intrusion effects due to climate change on the Lower Savannah River Estuary

The ability of water-resource managers to adapt to future climatic change is especially challenging in coastal regions of the world. The East Coast of the United States falls into this category given the high number of people living along the Atlantic seaboard and the added strain on resources as populations continue to increase, particularly in the Southeast. Increased temperatures, changes in regional precipitation regimes, and potential increased sea level may have a great impact on existing hydrological systems in the region. The Savannah River originates at the confluence of the Seneca and Tugaloo Rivers, near Hartwell, Ga., and forms the state boundary between South Carolina and Georgia. The J. Strom Thurmond Dam and Lake, located 238 miles upstream from the Atlantic Ocean, is responsible for most of the flow regulation that affects the Savannah River from Augusta, Ga., to the coast. The Savannah Harbor experiences semi-diurnal tides of two low and two high tides in a 24.8-hour period with pronounced differences in tidal range between neap and spring tides occurring on a 14-day and 28-day lunar cycle. Salinity intrusion results from the interaction of three principal forces - streamflow, mean tidal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze, model, and simulate hydrodynamic behaviors at critical coastal streamgages in the Lower Savannah River Estuary, data-mining techniques were applied to over 15 years of hourly streamflow, coastal water-quality, and water-level data. Artificial neural network (ANN) models were trained to learn the variable interactions that cause salinity intrusions. Streamflow data from the 9,850 square-mile Savannah River Basin were input into the model as time-delayed variables. Tidal inputs to the models were obtained by decomposing tidal water-level data into a “periodic” signal of tidal range and a “chaotic” signal of mean water levels. The ANN models were able to convincingly reproduce historical behaviors and generate alternative scenarios of interest. Important freshwater resources are located proximal to the freshwater-saltwater interface of the estuary. The Savannah National Wildlife Refuge is located in the upper portion of the Savannah River Estuary. The tidal freshwater marsh is an essential part of the 28,000-acre refuge and is home to a diverse variety of wildlife and plant communities. Two municipal freshwater intakes are located upstream from the refuge. To evaluate the impact of climate change on salinity intrusion on these resources, inputs of streamflows and mean tidal water levels were modified to incorporate estimated changes in precipitation patterns and sea-level rise appropriate for the Southeastern United States. Changes in mean tidal water levels were changed parametrically for various sea-level rise conditions. Preliminary model results at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Interstate-95 streamgage (station 02198840) for a 7½-year simulation show that historical daily salinity concentrations never exceeded 0.5 practical salinity units (psu). A 1-foot sea-level rise (ft, 30.5 centimeters [cm]) would increase the number of days of salinity concentrations greater than 0.5 psu to 47 days. A 2-ft (61 cm) sea-level rise would increase the number of days to 248.

Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2011

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.

Biological Reviews↗
USGS2025

Effects of climate change on Midwestern ecosystems: Central and Eastern North American Grassland and Shrubland

The Central and Eastern North American Grassland and Shrubland ecosystem may be increasingly shaped by intensifying drought and shifting seasonality. Rising temperatures and more variable precipitation, marked by longer dry spells, are projected to increase evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficits, and yield more frequent drought. At the same time, warming temperatures are projected to advance spring onset and extend the growing season. Drought may alter habitat structure by accelerating soil erosion, disrupting nutrient cycling, increasing physiological stress on plants, and reducing productivity. These changes are expected to shift community composition toward species adapted to water limitation and fluctuating resources, reducing much of the herbaceous cover that characterizes this ecosystem. Seasonal shifts may restructure habitat by altering phenology and f lowering dynamics, potentially increasing productivity but also heightening the risk of late-season frost damage. Community composition is expected to shift toward early-emerging species, particularly coolseason (C3) grasses, and species with phenological flexibility. Altered phenology may also lead to mismatches between plants and pollinators and increase pollinator competition at the beginning and end of the growing season, with potential consequences for reproduction. Although these overarching stressors affect the entire ecosystem, their specific impacts likely vary with local habitat conditions. In the Central and Northern Tallgrass Prairie, which are historically firemaintained habitats dominated by a mix of warm-season (C4) and cool-season (C3) grasses and forbs, climate change may shift community composition by favoring deep-rooted forbs and established shrubs while displacing shallow-rooted species, including many native grasses. These changes, especially in the absence of fire, may promote woody encroachment and drive long-term community reassembly. In the Central Interior Acidic Open Glade and Barrens, characterized by shallow, drought-prone soils, climate change may reinforce xeric assemblages and reduce the abundance of mesic species. In the absence of f ire, shrubs rather than larger woody species, are more likely to increase, as water limitations constrain the establishment of trees. In the Eastern North American Ruderal Meadow and Shrubland, which lack native species richness and structural stability, disturbance-tolerant invaders may increasingly dominate. Drought and earlier springs are expected to reinforce early successional dynamics and further constrain the restoration potential of these already degraded habitats. Across the region, invasive species, herbivory, and microbial and fungal communities are also expected to respond to climate change. Invasive plants with ruderal traits and flexible phenologies are likely to benefit from drought-driven disturbance, post-drought resource pulses, and longer, earlier growing seasons. These species often germinate and flower earlier than natives, gaining priority access to resources as seasonal timing shifts. Herbivory by increasing white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations is expected to intensify, particularly during drought, when plant defenses are weakened, and during extended growing seasons, which prolong forage availability. This selective browsing may contribute to declines in native forbs while indirectly promoting non-native grasses. Microbial and fungal communities, like plant communities, are likely vulnerable to both drought and shifting seasonality. Reduced soil moisture may suppress microbial activity and decomposition, while shifts in fungal community composition, particularly declines in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, may impair plant drought tolerance. Adaptation strategies for the Central and Eastern North American Grassland and Shrubland may require managers to anticipate and respond to these changes through both resistance-based approaches, such as restoring fire regimes and reinforcing native species dominance, and acceptance of some potential transitions, such as facilitating drought-tolerant and phenologically flexible species establishment and adjusting fire regimes to align with altered phenology.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2016

Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2022

N and P constrain C in ecosystems under climate change: Role of nutrient redistribution, accumulation, and stoichiometry

We use the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to examine responses of twelve ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), warming, and 20% decreases or increases in precipitation. Ecosystems respond synergistically to elevated CO 2 , warming, and decreased precipitation combined because higher water-use efficiency with elevated CO 2 and higher fertility with warming compensate for responses to drought. Response to elevated CO 2 , warming, and increased precipitation combined is additive. We analyze changes in ecosystem carbon (C) based on four nitrogen (N) and four phosphorus (P) attribution factors: (1) changes in total ecosystem N and P, (2) changes in N and P distribution between vegetation and soil, (3) changes in vegetation C:N and C:P ratios, and (4) changes in soil C:N and C:P ratios. In the combined CO 2 and climate change simulations, all ecosystems gain C. The contributions of these four attribution factors to changes in ecosystem C storage varies among ecosystems because of differences in the initial distributions of N and P between vegetation and soil and the openness of the ecosystem N and P cycles. The net transfer of N and P from soil to vegetation dominates the C response of forests. For tundra and grasslands, the C gain is also associated with increased soil C:N and C:P. In ecosystems with symbiotic N fixation, C gains resulted from N accumulation. Because of differences in N versus P cycle openness and the distribution of organic matter between vegetation and soil, changes in the N and P attribution factors do not always parallel one another. Differences among ecosystems in C-nutrient interactions and the amount of woody biomass interact to shape ecosystem C sequestration under simulated global change. We suggest that future studies quantify the openness of the N and P cycles and changes in the distribution of C, N, and P among ecosystem components, which currently limit understanding of nutrient effects on C sequestration and responses to elevated CO 2 and climate change.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2019

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

Michigan↗
USGS2012

Elevated CO2 does not offset greater water stress predicted under climate change for native and exotic riparian plants

In semiarid western North American riparian ecosystems, increased drought and lower streamflows under climate change may reduce plant growth and recruitment, and favor drought‐tolerant exotic species over mesic native species. We tested whether elevated atmospheric CO 2 might ameliorate these effects by improving plant water‐use efficiency. We examined the effects of CO 2 and water availability on seedlings of two native ( Populus deltoides spp. monilifera , Salix exigua ) and three exotic ( Elaeagnus angustifolia , Tamarix spp., Ulmus pumila ) western North American riparian species in a CO 2 ‐controlled glasshouse, using 1‐m‐deep pots with different water‐table decline rates. Low water availability reduced seedling biomass by 70–97%, and hindered the native species more than the exotics. Elevated CO 2 increased biomass by 15%, with similar effects on natives and exotics. Elevated CO 2 increased intrinsic water‐use efficiency (Δ 13 C leaf ), but did not increase biomass more in drier treatments than wetter treatments. The moderate positive effects of elevated CO 2 on riparian seedlings are unlikely to counteract the large negative effects of increased aridity projected under climate change. Our results suggest that increased aridity will reduce riparian seedling growth despite elevated CO 2 , and will reduce growth more for native Salix and Populus than for drought‐tolerant exotic species.

New Phytologist↗
USGS2015

Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change

State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM). SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate continuous surfaces of species occurrence probabilities. These data were imported into ST-Sim, an STSM platform, where they dictated the probability of each cell transitioning between alternate potential vegetation types at each time step. The STSM was parameterized to capture additional processes of vegetation growth and disturbance that are relevant to a keystone species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem—whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ). We compared historical model runs against historical observations of whitebark pine and a key disturbance agent (mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae ), and then projected the simulation into the future. Using this combination of correlative and stochastic simulation models, we were able to reproduce historical observations and identify key data gaps. Results indicated that SDMs and STSMs are complementary tools, and combining them is an effective way to account for the anticipated impacts of climate change, biotic interactions, and disturbances, while also allowing for the exploration of management options.

AIMS Environmental Science↗
USGS2015

Potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on a shallow natural lake fish assemblage

Much uncertainty exists around how fish communities in shallow lakes will respond to climate change. In this study, we modelled the effects of increased water temperatures on consumption and growth rates of two piscivores (northern pike [Esox lucius] and largemouth bass [Micropterus salmoides]) and examined relative effects of consumption by these predators on two prey species (bluegill [Lepomis macrochirus] and yellow perch [Perca flavescens]). Bioenergetics models were used to simulate the effects of climate change on growth and food consumption using predicted 2040 and 2060 temperatures in a shallow Nebraska Sandhill lake, USA. The patterns and magnitude of daily and cumulative consumption during the growing season (April–October) were generally similar between the two predators. However, growth of northern pike was always reduced (−3 to −45% change) compared to largemouth bass that experienced subtle changes (4 to −6% change) in weight by the end of the growing season. Assuming similar population size structure and numbers of predators in 2040–2060, future consumption of bluegill and yellow perch by northern pike and largemouth bass will likely increase (range: 3–24%), necessitating greater prey biomass to meet future energy demands. The timing of increased predator consumption will likely shift towards spring and fall (compared to summer), when prey species may not be available in the quantities required. Our findings suggest that increased water temperatures may affect species at the edge of their native range (i.e. northern pike) and a potential mismatch between predator and prey could exist.

Nebraska↗
USGS2023

Forming regional soil carbon networks to support effective climate change solutions

Sequestration and storage of organic carbon (C) in soil is an essential component of climate change mitigation and fundamental in promoting the health and climate resilience of soils. Sources of available soil C data are increasing, which complicates efforts to consolidate the data in forms that can be readily used by stakeholders. Spatial and temporal gaps in data availability also limit the quantification of changes in soil C through space and time. Improved coordination among producers and users of soil C data would provide data compatibility at the spatial and temporal resolution required for C monitoring, accounting, and verification of policy implementation. These challenges can be addressed by forming regional-scale networks to coordinate the collection and use of soil C data by promoting consistency in methods, collecting new data to fill critical gaps, integrating existing data from multiple sources, and providing data interpretation to stakeholders in readily usable forms. Forming networks in regions such as the Northeastern United States would require close coordinationwith existing programs that are involved in collecting or aggregating soil C within that region. Network formation could be accomplished by (1) producing a planning document, (2) designing a network structure tailored to the region, and (3) acquiring the institutional support to establish and operate the network. Increasing the availability and usage of soil C data through regional networks would support the development of climate change solutions and increased ecosystem services through land management efforts that increase soil C storage.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗