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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

USGS2009

The source of infrasound associated with long-period events at mount St. Helens

During the early stages of the 2004-2008 Mount St. Helens eruption, the source process that produced a sustained sequence of repetitive long-period (LP) seismic events also produced impulsive broadband infrasonic signals in the atmosphere. To assess whether the signals could be generated simply by seismic-acoustic coupling from the shallow LP events, we perform finite difference simulation of the seismo-acoustic wavefield using a single numerical scheme for the elastic ground and atmosphere. The effects of topography, velocity structure, wind, and source configuration are considered. The simulations show that a shallow source buried in a homogeneous elastic solid produces a complex wave train in the atmosphere consisting of P/SV and Rayleigh wave energy converted locally along the propagation path, and acoustic energy originating from , the source epicenter. Although the horizontal acoustic velocity of the latter is consistent with our data, the modeled amplitude ratios of pressure to vertical seismic velocity are too low in comparison with observations, and the characteristic differences in seismic and acoustic waveforms and spectra cannot be reproduced from a common point source. The observations therefore require a more complex source process in which the infrasonic signals are a record of only the broadband pressure excitation mechanism of the seismic LP events. The observations and numerical results can be explained by a model involving the repeated rapid pressure loss from a hydrothermal crack by venting into a shallow layer of loosely consolidated, highly permeable material. Heating by magmatic activity causes pressure to rise, periodically reaching the pressure threshold for rupture of the "valve" sealing the crack. Sudden opening of the valve generates the broadband infrasonic signal and simultaneously triggers the collapse of the crack, initiating resonance of the remaining fluid. Subtle waveform and amplitude variability of the infrasonic signals as recorded at an array 13.4 km to the NW of the volcano are attributed primarily to atmospheric boundary layer propagation effects, superimposed upon amplitude changes at the source.

Washington↗

USGS1986

The initial giant umbrella cloud of the May 18th, 1980, explosive eruption of Mount St. Helens

The initial eruption column of May 18th, 1980 reached nearly 30 km altitude and released 1017 joules of thermal energy into the atmosphere in only a few minutes. Ascent of the cloud resulted in forced intrusion of a giant umbrella-shaped cloud between altitudes of 10 and 20 km at radial horizontal velocities initially in excess of 50 m/s. The mushroom cloud expanded 15 km upwind, forming a stagnation point where the radial expansion velocity and wind velocity were equal. The cloud was initiated when the pyroclastic blast flow became buoyant. The flow reduced its density as it moved away from the volcano by decompression, by sedimentation, and by mixing with and heating the surrounding air. Observations indicate that much of the flow, covering an area of 600 km2, became buoyant within 1.5 minutes and abruptly ascended to form the giant cloud. Calculations are presented for the amount of air that must have been entrained into the flow to make it buoyant. Assuming an initial temperature of 450??C and a magmatic origin for the explosion, these calculations indicate that the flow became buoyant when its temperature was approximately 150??C and the flow consisted of a mixture of 3.25 ?? 1011 kg of pyroclasts and 5.0 ?? 1011 kg of air. If sedimentation is considered, these figures reduce to 1.1 ?? 1011 kg of pyroclasts and 1.0 ?? 1011 kg of air. ?? 1986.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2016

Assessing spring direct mortality to avifauna from wind energy facilities in the Dakotas

T he Northern Great Plains (NGP) contains much of the remaining temperate grasslands, an ecosystem that is one of the most converted and least protected in the world. Within the NGP, the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) provides important habitat for >50% of North America's breeding waterfowl and many species of shorebirds, waterbirds, and grassland songbirds. This region also has high wind energy potential, but the effects of wind energy developments on migratory and resident bird and bat populations in the NGP remains understudied. This is troubling considering >2,200 wind turbines are actively generating power in the region and numerous wind energy projects have been proposed for development in the future. Our objectives were to estimate avian and bat fatality rates for wind turbines situated in cropland- and grassland-dominated landscapes, document species at high risk to direct mortality, and assess the influence of habitat variables on waterfowl mortality at 2 wind farms in the NGP. From 10 March to 7 June 2013–2014, we completed 2,398 searches around turbines for carcasses at the Tatanka Wind Farm (TAWF) and the Edgeley-Kulm Wind Farm (EKWF) in South Dakota and North Dakota. During spring, we found 92 turbine-related mortalities comprising 33 species and documented a greater diversity of species ( n  = 30) killed at TAWF (predominately grassland) than at EKWF ( n  = 9; predominately agricultural fields). After accounting for detection rates, we estimated spring mortality of 1.86 (SE = 0.22) deaths/megawatt (MW) at TAWF and 2.55 (SE = 0.51) deaths/MW at EKWF. Waterfowl spring (Mar–Jun) fatality rates were 0.79 (SE = 0.11) and 0.91 (SE = 0.10) deaths/MW at TAWF and EKWF, respectively. Our results suggest that future wind facility siting decisions consider avoiding grassland habitats and locate turbines in pre-existing fragmented and converted habitat outside of high densities of breeding waterfowl and major migration corridors.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2013

Spatially explicit modeling of lesser prairie-chicken lek density in Texas

As with many other grassland birds, lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) have experienced population declines in the Southern Great Plains. Currently they are proposed for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act. In addition to a history of land-uses that have resulted in habitat loss, lesser prairie-chickens now face a new potential disturbance from energy development. We estimated lek density in the occupied lesser prairie-chicken range of Texas, USA, and modeled anthropogenic and vegetative landscape features associated with lek density. We used an aerial line-transect survey method to count lesser prairie-chicken leks in spring 2010 and 2011 and surveyed 208 randomly selected 51.84-km(2) blocks. We divided each survey block into 12.96-km(2) quadrats and summarized landscape variables within each quadrat. We then used hierarchical distance-sampling models to examine the relationship between lek density and anthropogenic and vegetative landscape features and predict how lek density may change in response to changes on the landscape, such as an increase in energy development. Our best models indicated lek density was related to percent grassland, region (i.e., the northeast or southwest region of the Texas Panhandle), total percentage of grassland and shrubland, paved road density, and active oil and gas well density. Predicted lek density peaked at 0.39leks/12.96km(2) (SE=0.09) and 2.05leks/12.96km(2) (SE=0.56) in the northeast and southwest region of the Texas Panhandle, respectively, which corresponds to approximately 88% and 44% grassland in the northeast and southwest region. Lek density increased with an increase in total percentage of grassland and shrubland and was greatest in areas with lower densities of paved roads and lower densities of active oil and gas wells. We used the 2 most competitive models to predict lek abundance and estimated 236 leks (CV=0.138, 95% CI=177-306leks) for our sampling area. Our results suggest that managing landscapes to maintain a greater percentage of grassland and shrubland on the landscape with a greater ratio of grasses to shrubs in the northeast Panhandle should promote greater lek density. Furthermore, increases in paved road and active oil and gas well densities may reduce lek density. This information will be useful for future conservation planning efforts for land protection, policy decisions, and decision analyses.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2014

Exploring the long-term balance between net precipitation and net groundwater exchange in Florida seepage lakes

The long-term balance between net precipitation and net groundwater exchange that maintains thousands of seepage lakes in Florida’s karst terrain is explored at a representative lake basin and then regionally for the State’s peninsular lake district. The 15-year water budget of Lake Starr includes El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related extremes in rainfall, and provides the longest record of Bowen ratio energy-budget (BREB) lake evaporation and lake-groundwater exchanges in the southeastern United States. Negative net precipitation averaging -25 cm/yr at Lake Starr overturns the previously-held conclusion that lakes in this region receive surplus net precipitation. Net groundwater exchange with the lake was positive on average but too small to balance the net precipitation deficit. Groundwater pumping effects and surface-water withdrawals from the lake widened the imbalance. Satellite-based regional estimates of potential evapotranspiration at five large lakes in peninsular Florida compared well with basin-scale evaporation measurements from seven open-water sites that used BREB methods. The regional average lake evaporation estimated for Lake Starr during 1996-2011 was within 5 percent of its measured average, and regional net precipitation agreed within 10 percent. Regional net precipitation to lakes was negative throughout central peninsular Florida and the net precipitation deficit increased by about 20 cm from north to south. Results indicate that seepage lakes farther south on the peninsula receive greater net groundwater inflow than northern lakes and imply that northern lakes are in comparatively leakier hydrogeologic settings. Findings reveal the peninsular lake district to be more vulnerable than was previously realized to drier climate, surface-water withdrawals from lakes, and groundwater pumping effects.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Life-stage-specific physiology defines invasion extent of a riverine fish

Many ecologists have called for mechanism-based investigations to identify the underlying controls on species distributions. Understanding these controls can be especially useful to construct robust predictions of how a species range may change in response to climate change or the extent to which a non-native species may spread in novel environments. Here, we link spatially intensive observations with mechanistic models to illustrate how physiology determines the upstream extent of the aquatic ectotherm smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) in two headwater rivers. Our results demonstrate that as temperatures become increasingly cold across a downstream to upstream gradient, food consumption in age 0 bass becomes increasingly constrained, and as a result, these fish become growth limited. Sufficient first summer growth of age 0 bass is essential for overwinter survival because young bass must persist from energy reserves accumulated during the summer, and those reserves are determined by body size. Our field data reveal the upstream extent of adult bass reproduction corresponds to a point in the downstream/upstream gradient where cold temperatures impair growth opportunities in young bass. This pattern was repeated in both study streams and explained why bass positioned nests twice as far upstream in the warm compared to the cold stream in the same basin. Placement of spawning nests by adult bass is likely subject to strong evolutionary selection in temperate systems: if bass spawn too far upstream, their young are unlikely to grow large enough to survive the winter. Consumption and growth in older bass (age 3–4) was far less sensitive to temperature. Based on these data, we suggest that temperature-sensitive age 0 bass constrain the upstream distribution limits of bass within temperate streams. In this study, we investigated how temperature-dependent physiology changed through the life history of a species and, in doing so, identified a climate-sensitive life-history stage that likely sets the distributional limits of all other life-history stages. We anticipate the framework developed here could be employed to identify how similar stage-specific environmental sensitivity determines distribution in many other ectothermic species.

Oregon↗

USGS2012

Resonance of a fluid-driven crack: Radiation properties and implications for the source of long-period events and harmonic tremor

A dynamic source model is presented, in which a three-dimensional crack containing a viscous compressible fluid is excited into resonance by an impulsive pressure transient applied over a small area ΔS of the crack surface. The crack excitation depends critically on two dimensionless parameters called the crack stiffness, C = ( b /μ)( L / d ), and viscous damping loss, F = (12η L )/(ρ ƒ d 2 α), where b is the bulk modulus, η is the viscosity, ρ ƒ is the density of the fluid, μ is the rigidity, α is the compressional velocity of the solid, L is the crack length, and d is the crack thickness. The first parameter characterizes the ability of the crack to vibrate and shapes the spectral signature of the source, and the second quantifies the effect of fluid viscosity on the duration of resonance. Resonance is sustained by a very slow wave trapped in the fluid-filled crack. This guided wave, called the crack wave, is similar to the tube wave propagating in a fluid-filled borehole; it is inversely dispersive, showing a phase velocity that decreases with increasing wavelength, and its wave speed is always lower than the acoustic velocity of the fluid, decreasing rapidly as the crack stiffness increases. The source spectrum shows many sharp peaks characterizing the individual modes of vibration of the crack; the variation of spectral shape, both in the number and width of peaks, is surprisingly complex, reflecting the interference between the lateral and longitudinal modes of resonance, as well as nodes for these modes. The far-field spectrum is marked by narrow-band dominant and subdominant peaks that reflect the interaction of the various source modes. The frequency of the dominant spectral peak radiated by the source is independent of the radiation direction. The frequency, bandwidth, and spacing of the resonant peaks are strongly dependent on the crack stiffness, larger values of the stiffness factor shifting these peaks to lower frequencies and decreasing their bandwidth. The excitation of a particular mode depends on the position of the trigger and on the extent of the crack surface affected by the pressure transient. Fluid viscosity decreases the amplitudes of the main spectral peaks, smears out the finer structure of the spectrum, and greatly reduces the duration of the radiated signal. The energy loss by radiation is stronger for high frequencies, producing a seismic signature that is marked by a high-frequency content near the onset of the signal and dominated by a longer-period component of much longer duration in the signal coda. Such signature is in harmony with those displayed by long-period events observed on active volcanoes and in hydrofracture experiments. The very low velocity which is possible in a crack with high stiffness ( C ≥ 100) also provides an attractive explanation for very long period tremor, such as type 2 tremor at Aso volcano, Japan, without the requirement of an unrealistically large magma container. The standing wave pattern set up on the crack surface by the sustained resonance in the fluid is observable in the near field of the crack, suggesting that the location and extent of the source may be estimated from the mapping of the pattern of nodes and antinodes seen in its vicinity. According to the model, the long-period event and harmonic tremor share the same source but differ in the boundary conditions for fluid flow and in the triggering mechanism setting up the resonance of the source, the former being viewed as the impulse response of the tremor generating system and the latter representing the excitation due to more complex forcing functions.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2024

Contrasting migratory chronology and routes of Lesser Scaup: Implications of different migration strategies in a broadly distributed species

Migration allows birds to improve fitness by exploiting seasonal resource peaks and avoiding limitations. Migration strategies may differ among individuals within a species, but for all strategies, the benefit of increased fitness should outweigh the costs of migration. These costs can include increased mortality risk, time constraints in the annual cycle, and metabolic energy loss. We compared migratory chronology and routes of individuals from a broadly distributed species of waterfowl, the Lesser Scaup ( Aythya affinis ; hereafter Scaup), marked at the northern (66.51000° N, 145.98556° W) and southern (44.63778° N, 111.73694° W) extents of its breeding distribution in North America. Scaup breeding farther north in interior Alaska, USA migrated greater distances and had protracted migrations, especially in fall, compared to Scaup breeding farther south in southwest Montana, USA. During migration, Scaup breeding in Alaska used more staging and stopover areas compared to Scaup breeding in Montana. Scaup breeding in Alaska also spent less time at their breeding area and more time at their wintering areas compared to Scaup breeding in Montana. In addition, Scaup breeding in Alaska were largely absent from wintering areas in the Intermountain West that were used by Scaup breeding in Montana. These differences could have important effects on Scaup fitness and could contribute to differences in fecundity and recruitment observed across the Scaup’s broad latitudinal distribution. Understanding the fitness implications of intraspecific variation in migration strategies of broadly distributed species can assist resource managers by focusing conservation efforts on specific breeding populations, informing models of disease transmission, and improving projections of species’ responses to environmental change.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

USGS2008

Distributed energy balance modeling of South Cascade Glacier, Washington and assessment of model uncertainty

We have developed a physically based, distributed surface energy balance model to simulate glacier mass balance under meteorological and climatological forcing. Here we apply the model to estimate summer ablation on South Cascade Glacier, Washington, for the 2004 and 2005 mass balance seasons. To arrive at optimal mass balance simulations, we investigate and quantify model uncertainty associated with selecting from a range of physical parameter values that are not commonly measured in glaciological mass balance field studies. We optimize the performance of the model by varying values for atmospheric transmissivity, the albedo of surrounding topography, precipitation-elevation lapse rate, surface roughness for turbulent exchange of momentum, and snow albedo aging coefficient. Of these the snow aging parameter and precipitation lapse rates have the greatest influence on the modeled ablation. We examined model sensitivity to varying parameters by performing an additional 103 realizations with parameters randomly chosen over a ??5% range centered about the optimum values. The best fit suite of model parameters yielded a net balance of -1.69??0.38 m water equivalent (WE) for the 2004 water year and -2.10??0.30 m WE up to 11 September 2005. The 2004 result is within 3% of the measured value. These simulations account for 91% and 93% of the variance in measured ablation for the respective years. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2013

Salmon-mediated nutrient flux in selected streams of the Columbia River basin, USA

Salmon provide an important resource subsidy and linkage between marine and land-based ecosystems. This flow of energy and nutrients is not uni-directional (i.e., upstream only); in addition to passive nutrient export via stream flow, juvenile emigrants actively export nutrients from freshwater environments. In some cases, nutrient export can exceed import. We evaluated nutrient fluxes in streams across central Idaho, USA using Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) adult escapement and juvenile production data from 1998 to 2008. We found in the majority of stream-years evaluated, adults imported more nutrients than progeny exported; however, in 3% of the years, juveniles exported more nutrients than their parents imported. On average, juvenile emigrants exported 22 ± 3% of the nitrogen and 30 ± 4% of the phosphorus their parents imported. This relationship was density dependent and nonlinear; during periods of low adult abundance juveniles were larger and exported up to 194% and 268% of parental nitrogen and phosphorus inputs, respectively. We highlight minimum escapement thresholds that appear to 1) maintain consistently positive net nutrient flux and 2) reduce the average proportional rate of export across study streams. Our results suggest a state-shift occurs when adult spawner abundance falls below a threshold to a point where the probability of juvenile nutrient exports exceeding adult imports becomes increasingly likely.

Idaho↗

USGS2007

Evapotranspiration from a bulrush-dominated wetland in the Klamath Basin, Oregon

Growing-season evapotranspiration and surface energy and water balances were investigated for an extensive, bulrush-dominated wetland in the Upper Klamath National Wildlife Refuge of south-central Oregon, a semi-arid region with competing demands for scarce water resources. Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat were measured by eddy covariance for 1.2 to 1.9 days during each of four site visits during late-May to mid-October 1997. Mean daytime latent heat flux and the Bowen ratio ranged from 148 to 178 W m −2 and from 0.38 to 0.51, respectively, during late May, mid-July, and late August site visits. By mid-October, when the plant canopy had senesced, daytime latent heat flux and the Bowen ratio averaged 46 W m −2 and 2.8, respectively. An hourly Penman-Monteith (PM) model that was fitted to the surface-flux data provided values for the surface resistance to water-vapor diffusion that ranged from 78 s m −1 during late August to 206 s m −1 during mid-October. Similarly, a Priestley-Taylor (PT) model provided values for the PT multiplier (a) that ranged from 0.96 during late August to 0.37 during mid-October. The PM and PT models predicted evapotranspiration totals of 560 and 480 mm, respectively, for May 28 to October 12, 1997.

Oregon↗

USGS1975

Experimental abrasion of detrital gold

The physical breakdown and abrasion rates of gold were studied using a tumbler to simulate natural high-energy environments. The gold fragments were tumbled for periods ranging from 30 to 240 h with different combinations of sand, cobbles, and water at velocities of 0.5 and 2.0 mi/h (0.85 and 3.22 km/h). With sand and gravel, the common bedload of the rivers that deposited the gold-bearing Tertiary sedimentary rocks of the Sierra Nevada, gold is abraded at rates of 0.015 to 0.007 percent (by weight) per hour of travel (at 0.5 mi/h or 0.845 km/h). Cobbles, rather than sand, are responsible for most of the physical changes and abrasion of the gold. Ten gold fragments tumbled for 120 h with cobbles and water (no sand) were broken down to 68 recoverable fragments and lost about 25 percent of their weight to particles smaller than could be recovered using conventional panning techniques. Gold tumbled for 120 h with sand and water lost less than 1 percent of its weight. Gold was abraded faster by wet sand than by dry sand. Velocity appears to be more important as a factor in abrasion of gold than travel distance a fourfold increase in velocity produced a tenfold increase in hourly abrasion rates of gold. Scanning electron microscope examination of the gold fragments after the tumbling experiments revealed differences in surface texture between fragments tumbled with (1) sand, (2) sand and cobbles, and (3) cobbles only.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗

USGS2010

The aquatic turtle assemblage inhabiting a highly altered landscape in southeast Missouri

Turtles are linked to energetic food webs as both consumers of plants and animals and prey for many species. Turtle biomass in freshwater systems can be an order of magnitude greater than that of endotherms. Therefore, declines in freshwater turtle populations can change energy transfer in freshwater systems. Here we report on a mark–recapture study at a lake and adjacent borrow pit in a relict tract of bottomland hardwood forest in the Mississippi River floodplain in southeast Missouri, which was designed to gather baseline data, including sex ratio, size structure, and population size, density, and biomass, for the freshwater turtle population. Using a variety of capture methods, we captured seven species of freshwater turtles (snapping turtle Chelydra serpentina ; red-eared slider Trachemys scripta ; southern painted turtle Chrysemys dorsalis ; river cooter Pseudemys concinna ; false map turtle Graptemys pseudogeographica ; eastern musk turtle Sternotherus odoratus ; spiny softshell Apalone spinifera ) comprising four families (Chelydridae, Emydidae, Kinosternidae, Trinoychidae). With the exception of red-eared sliders, nearly all individuals captured were adults. Most turtles were captured by baited hoop-nets, and this was the only capture method that caught all seven species. The unbaited fyke net was very successful in the borrow pit, but only captured four of the seven species. Basking traps and deep-water crawfish nets had minimal success. Red-eared sliders had the greatest population estimate (2,675), density (205/ha), and biomass (178 kg/ha). Two species exhibited a sex-ratio bias: snapping turtles C. serpentina in favor of males, and spiny softshells A. spinifera in favor of females.

Missouri↗

USGS2016

Habitat selection by juvenile Mojave Desert tortoises

Growing pressure to develop public lands for renewable energy production places several protected species at increased risk of habitat loss. One example is the Mojave desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ), a species often at the center of conflicts over public land development. For this species and others on public lands, a better understanding of their habitat needs can help minimize negative impacts and facilitate protection or restoration of habitat. We used radio-telemetry to track 46 neonate and juvenile tortoises in the Eastern Mojave Desert, California, USA, to quantify habitat at tortoise locations and paired random points to assess habitat selection. Tortoise locations near burrows were more likely to be under canopy cover and had greater coverage of perennial plants (especially creosote [ Larrea tridentata ]), more coverage by washes, a greater number of small-mammal burrows, and fewer white bursage ( Ambrosia dumosa ) than random points. Active tortoise locations away from burrows were closer to washes and perennial plants than were random points. Our results can help planners locate juvenile tortoises and avoid impacts to habitat critical for this life stage. Additionally, our results provide targets for habitat protection and restoration and suggest that diverse and abundant small-mammal populations and the availability of creosote bush are vital for juvenile desert tortoises in the Eastern Mojave Desert.

California↗

USGS2021

Remote sensing-based actual evapotranspiration assessment in a data-scarce area of Brazil: A case study of the Urucuia Aquifer System

The large groundwater reserves of the Urucuia Aquifer System (UAS) enabled agricultural development and economic growth in the western Bahia State, in northeastern Brazil. Over the last several years, concern has grown around the aquifer’s diminishing water levels, and water balance (WB) studies are in demand. Considering the lack of measured actual evapotranspiration (ET a ), a major component of the water cycle, this work uses the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model to estimate ET a , and compares it to basin-scale estimates from the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) monthly model and from an annual WB closure method, based on gridded meteorological data and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) product. Additionally, a comparative assessment of different versions of the SSEBop parameterization was performed. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery was used to implement eight different versions of the SSEBop algorithm over the UAS between 2000 and 2013. SSEBop and SMAP ET a yielded similar seasonal patterns, with correlation coefficient (r) up to 0.65, mean difference (MD) of 0.8 mm/month and mean absolute difference (MAD) of 18.5 mm/month. Comparison of SSEBop annual ET a estimates to annual SMAP and WB closure estimates yielded low MD (12.1 and −7.3 mm/year, respectively) and MAD (82.5 and 82.8 mm/year, respectively), but also low r values (0.00 and 0.37, respectively). The comparison of the different SSEBop versions indicated the need to incorporate a calibration step of the aerodynamic heat resistance (r ah ) parameter. SSEBop results were also used for land cover and drought monitoring. Analysis indicates that agriculture, associated with an increasing trend of atmospheric evaporative demand, is responsible for the decrease in groundwater levels and streamflow in the studied time period.

Urucuia Aquifer System↗

USGS2002

Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part III: Interannual variability

The Land Dynamics (LaD) model is tested by comparison with observations of interannual variations in discharge from 44 large river basins for which relatively accurate time series of monthly precipitation (a primary model input) have recently been computed. When results are pooled across all basins, the model explains 67% of the interannual variance of annual runoff ratio anomalies (i.e., anomalies of annual discharge volume, normalized by long-term mean precipitation volume). The new estimates of basin precipitation appear to offer an improvement over those from a state-of-the-art analysis of global precipitation (the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation, CMAP), judging from comparisons of parallel model runs and of analyses of precipitation-discharge correlations. When the new precipitation estimates are used, the performance of the LaD model is comparable to, but not significantly better than, that of a simple, semiempirical water-balance relation that uses only annual totals of surface net radiation and precipitation. This implies that the LaD simulations of interannual runoff variability do not benefit substantially from information on geographical variability of land parameters or seasonal structure of interannual variability of precipitation. The aforementioned analyses necessitated the development of a method for downscaling of long-term monthly precipitation data to the relatively short timescales necessary for running the model. The method merges the long-term data with a reference dataset of 1-yr duration, having high temporal resolution. The success of the method, for the model and data considered here, was demonstrated in a series of model-model comparisons and in the comparisons of modeled and observed interannual variations of basin discharge.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗

USGS2015

Monitoring and modeling wetland chloride concentrations in relationship to oil and gas development

Extraction of oil and gas via unconventional methods is becoming an important aspect of energy production worldwide. Studying the effects of this development in countries where these technologies are being widely used may provide other countries, where development may be proposed, with some insight in terms of concerns associated with development. A fairly recent expansion of unconventional oil and gas development in North America provides such an opportunity. Rapid increases in energy development in North America have caught the attention of managers and scientists as a potential stressor for wildlife and their habitats. Of particular concern in the Northern Great Plains of the U.S. is the potential for chloride-rich produced water associated with unconventional oil and gas development to alter the water chemistry of wetlands. We describe a landscape scale modeling approach designed to examine the relationship between potential chloride contamination in wetlands and patterns of oil and gas development. We used a spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to assess multiple models explaining chloride concentrations in wetlands. These models included effects related to oil and gas wells (e.g. age of wells, number of wells) and surficial geology (e.g. glacial till, outwash). We found that the model containing the number of wells and the surficial geology surrounding a wetland best explained variation in chloride concentrations. Our spatial predictions showed regions of localized high chloride concentrations. Given the spatiotemporal variability of regional wetland water chemistry, we do not regard our results as predictions of contamination, but rather as a way to identify locations that may require more intensive sampling or further investigation. We suggest that an approach like the one outlined here could easily be extended to more of an adaptive monitoring approach to answer questions about chloride contamination risk that are of interest to managers.

Montana, North Dakota↗

USGS2012

Synthesis study of an erosion hot spot, Ocean Beach, California

A synthesis of multiple coastal morphodynamic research efforts is presented to identify the processes responsible for persistent erosion along a 1-km segment of 7-km-long Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California. The beach is situated adjacent to a major tidal inlet and in the shadow of the ebb-tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay. Ocean Beach is exposed to a high-energy wave climate and significant alongshore variability in forcing introduced by varying nearshore bathymetry, tidal forcing, and beach morphology ( e.g. , beach variably backed by seawall, dunes, and bluffs). In addition, significant regional anthropogenic factors have influenced sediment supply and tidal current strength. A variety of techniques were employed to investigate the erosion at Ocean Beach, including historical shoreline and bathymetric analysis, monthly beach topographic surveys, nearshore and regional bathymetric surveys, beach and nearshore grain size analysis, two surf-zone hydrodynamic experiments, four sets of nearshore wave and current experiments, and several numerical modeling approaches. Here, we synthesize the results of 7 years of data collection to lay out the causes of persistent erosion, demonstrating the effectiveness of integrating an array of data sets covering a huge range of spatial scales. The key findings are as follows: anthropogenic influences have reduced sediment supply from San Francisco Bay, leading to pervasive contraction ( i.e. , both volume and area loss) of the ebb-tidal delta, which in turn reduced the regional grain size and modified wave focusing patterns along Ocean Beach, altering nearshore circulation and sediment transport patterns. In addition, scour associated with an exposed sewage outfall pipe causes a local depression in wave heights, significantly modifying nearshore circulation patterns that have been shown through modeling to be key drivers of persistent erosion in that area.

California↗