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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Testing megathrust rupture models using tsunami deposits

The 26 January 1700 CE Cascadia subduction zone earthquake ruptured much of the plate boundary and generated a tsunami that deposited sand in coastal marshes from northern California to Vancouver Island. Although the depositional record of tsunami inundation is extensive in some of these marshes, few sites have been investigated in enough detail to map the inland extent of sand deposition and depict variability in tsunami deposit thickness and grain size. We collected 129 cores in marshes of the Salmon River estuary in Oregon and reanalyzed 114 core logs from a 1987–88 study that mapped the inland extent of circa 1700 CE sandy tsunami deposits. The ca. 1700 CE tsunami deposit in the Salmon River estuary is easily recognized in cores ≤1 m deep in which a buried marsh peat is overlain by a well sorted sand bed with a sharp lower contact that thins and fines inland. We use tsunami deposit data and models of sandy tsunami sediment transport (using Delft3D-FLOW) to test 15 rupture models that could represent a ca. 1700 CE earthquake. At least 12–16 m of slip offshore of the Salmon River, which results in 0.8–1.0 m of coastal coseismic subsidence, is required to match the ca. 1700 CE sand deposit's inland extent, which is consistent with models of heterogeneous megathrust slip in ca. 1700 CE. Our methods of detailed tsunami deposit mapping, combined with sediment transport modeling, can be used to test models of megathrust ruptures and their tsunamis to potentially improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessments.

JGR Earth Surface↗
USGS2008

Large-scale natural gradient tracer test in sand and gravel, Cape Cod, Massachusetts: 2. Analysis of spatial moments for a nonreactive tracer

A large-scale natural gradient tracer test was conducted to examine the transport of reactive and nonreactive tracers in a sand and gravel aquifer on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. As part of this test the transport of bromide, a nonreactive tracer, was monitored for about 280 m and quantified using spatial moments. The calculated mass of bromide for each sampling date varied between 85% and 105% of the injected mass using an estimated porosity of 0.39, and the center of mass moved at a nearly constant horizontal velocity of 0.42 m per day. A nonlinear change in the bromide longitudinal variance was observed during the first 26 m of travel distance, but afterward the variance followed a linear trend, indicating the longitudinal dispersivity had reached a constant value of 0.96 m. The transverse dispersivities were much smaller; transverse horizontal dispersivity was 1.8 cm, and transverse vertical dispersivity was about 1.5 mm.

Massachusetts↗
USGS1998

Simulation of variable-density flow and transport of reactive and nonreactive solutes during a tracer test at Cape Cod, Massachusetts

A multispecies numerical code was developed to simulate flow and mass transport with kinetic adsorption in variable-density flow systems. The two-dimensional code simulated the transport of bromide (Br − ), a nonreactive tracer, and lithium (Li + ), a reactive tracer, in a large-scale tracer test performed in a sand-and-gravel aquifer at Cape Cod, Massachusetts. A two-fraction kinetic adsorption model was implemented to simulate the interaction of Li + with the aquifer solids. Initial estimates for some of the transport parameters were obtained from a nonlinear least squares curve-fitting procedure, where the breakthrough curves from column experiments were matched with one-dimensional theoretical models. The numerical code successfully simulated the basic characteristics of the two plumes in the tracer test. At early times the centers of mass of Br − and Li + sank because the two plumes were closely coupled to the density-driven velocity field. At later times the rate of downward movement in the Br − plume due to gravity slowed significantly because of dilution by dispersion. The downward movement of the Li + plume was negligible because the two plumes moved in locally different velocity regimes, where Li + transport was retarded relative to Br − . The maximum extent of downward transport of the Li + plume was less than that of the Br − plume. This study also found that at early times the downward movement of a plume created by a three-dimensional source could be much more extensive than the case with a two-dimensional source having the same cross-sectional area. The observed shape of the Br − plume at Cape Cod was simulated by adding two layers with different hydraulic conductivities at shallow depth across the region. The large dispersion and asymmetrical shape of the Li + plume were simulated by including kinetic adsorption-desorption reactions.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2014

Globigerinoides ruber morphotypes in the Gulf of Mexico: a test of null hypothesis

Planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber ( G. ruber ), due to its abundance and ubiquity in the tropical/subtropical mixed layer, has been the workhorse of paleoceanographic studies investigating past sea-surface conditions on a range of timescales. Recent geochemical work on the two principal white G. ruber (W) morphotypes, sensu stricto (ss) and sensu lato (sl), has hypothesized differences in seasonal preferences or calcification depths, implying that reconstructions using a non-selective mixture of morphotypes could potentially be biased. Here, we test these hypotheses by performing stable isotope and abundance measurements on the two morphotypes in sediment trap, core-top, and downcore samples from the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a test of null hypothesis, we perform the same analyses on couplets of G. ruber (W) specimens with attributes intermediate to the holotypic ss and sl morphologies. We find no systematic or significant offsets in coeval ss-sl δ 18 O, and δ 13 C. These offsets are no larger than those in the intermediate pairs. Coupling our results with foraminiferal statistical model INFAUNAL, we find that contrary to previous work elsewhere, there is no evidence for discrepancies in ss-sl calcifying depth habitat or seasonality in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2015

Detecting the influence of rare stressors on rare species in Yosemite National Park using a novel stratified permutation test

Statistical models often use observational data to predict phenomena; however, interpreting model terms to understand their influence can be problematic. This issue poses a challenge in species conservation where setting priorities requires estimating influences of potential stressors using observational data. We present a novel approach for inferring influence of a rare stressor on a rare species by blending predictive models with nonparametric permutation tests. We illustrate the approach with two case studies involving rare amphibians in Yosemite National Park, USA. The endangered frog, Rana sierrae , is known to be negatively impacted by non-native fish, while the threatened toad, Anaxyrus canorus , is potentially affected by packstock. Both stressors and amphibians are rare, occurring in ~10% of potential habitat patches. We first predict amphibian occupancy with a statistical model that includes all predictors but the stressor to stratify potential habitat by predicted suitability. A stratified permutation test then evaluates the association between stressor and amphibian, all else equal. Our approach confirms the known negative relationship between fish and R. sierrae , but finds no evidence of a negative relationship between current packstock use and A. canorus breeding. Our statistical approach has potential broad application for deriving understanding (not just prediction) from observational data.

California↗
USGS2014

Experimental test of theory for the stability of partially saturated vertical cut slopes

This paper extends Culmann's vertical-cut analysis to unsaturated soils. To test the extended theory, unsaturated sand was compacted to a uniform porosity and moisture content in a laboratory apparatus. A sliding door that extended the height of the free face of the slope was lowered until the vertical cut failed. Digital images of the slope cross section and upper surface were acquired concurrently. A recently developed particle image velocimetry (PIV) tool was used to quantify soil displacement. The PIV analysis showed strain localization at varying distances from the sliding door prior to failure. The areas of localized strain were coincident with the location of the slope crest after failure. Shear-strength and soil-water-characteristic parameters of the sand were independently tested for use in extended analyses of the vertical-cut stability and of the failure plane angle. Experimental failure heights were within 22.3% of the heights predicted using the extended theory.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin↗
USGS2009

Scaling effects in direct shear tests

Laboratory experiments of the direct shear test were performed on spherical particles of different materials and diameters. Results of the bulk friction vs. non-dimensional shear displacement are presented as a function of the non-dimensional particle diameter. Simulations of the direct shear test were performed using the Discrete Element Method (DEM). The simulation results show Considerable differences with the physical experiments. Particle level material properties, such as the coefficients of static friction, restitution and rolling friction need to be known a priori in order to guarantee that the simulation results are an accurate representation of the physical phenomenon. Furthermore, laboratory results show a clear size dependency on the results, with smaller particles having a higher bulk friction than larger ones. ?? 2009 American Institute of Physics.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

A test of the variable circular-plot method where exact density of a bird population was known

Variable circular-plot (VCP) counts are statistically more sound than point counts because they are adjusted for the probability of detecting birds at different distances and under different conditions. However, many ornithologists use point counts rather than VCP counts because they believe that assumptions of the VCP method are almost always violated, leading to poor results, and because earlier field tests using ad hoc analysis methods gave variable and relatively poor results. We conducted the first field test of the VCP method where the exact density of a forest bird was known as part of re-establishing the 'Oma'o Myadestes obscurus in former range. All 'Oma'o in the new population were intensively monitored by radio telemetry so that the number present during four VCP censuses was known. Excluding the first census, when three of the four detections were of the same individual, differences in VCP density estimates ranged from -34% to +24% (mean 0%) even though =18 'Oma'o were detected per survey. We review critical assumptions of the VCP method and make recommendations for data analysis based on our experience with the method on Pacific islands.

Pacific Conservation Biology↗
USGS1993

Simulation testing of unbiasedness of variance estimators

In this article I address the evaluation of estimators of variance for parameter estimates. Given an unbiased estimator X of a parameter θ, and an estimator V of the variance of X , how does one test (via simulation) whether V is an unbiased estimator of the variance of X? The derivation of the test statistic illustrates the need for care in substituting consistent estimators for unknown parameters.

American Statistician↗
USGS2017

Optimization of a Plaque Neutralization Test (PNT) to identify the exposure history of Pacific Herring to viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV)

Methods for a plaque neutralization test (PNT) were optimized for the detection and quantification of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) neutralizing activity in the plasma of Pacific Herring Clupea pallasii. The PNT was complement dependent, as neutralizing activity was attenuated by heat inactivation; further, neutralizing activity was mostly restored by the addition of exogenous complement from specific-pathogen-free Pacific Herring. Optimal methods included the overnight incubation of VHSV aliquots in serial dilutions (starting at 1:16) of whole test plasma containing endogenous complement. The resulting viral titers were then enumerated using a viral plaque assay in 96-well microplates. Serum neutralizing activity was virus-specific as plasma from viral hemorrhagic septicemia (VHS) survivors demonstrated only negligible reactivity to infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus, a closely related rhabdovirus. Among Pacific Herring that survived VHSV exposure, neutralizing activity was detected in the plasma as early as 37 d postexposure and peaked at approximately 64 d postexposure. The onset of neutralizing activity was slightly delayed in fish reared at 7.4°C relative to those in warmer temperatures (9.9°C and 13.1°C); however, neutralizing activity persisted for at least 345 d postexposure in all temperature treatments. It is anticipated that this novel ability to assess VHSV neutralizing activity in Pacific Herring will enable retrospective comparisons between prior VHS infections and year-class recruitment failures. Additionally, the optimized PNT could be employed as a forecasting tool capable of identifying the potential for future VHS epizootics in wild Pacific Herring populations.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health↗
USGS2024

Detecting stochasticity in population time series using a non-parametric test of intrinsic predictability

1. Many ecological systems dominated by stochastic dynamics can produce complex time series that inherently limit forecast accuracy. The ‘intrinsic predictability’ of these systems can be approximated by a time series complexity metric called weighted permutation entropy (WPE). While WPE is a useful metric to gauge forecast performance prior to model building, it is sensitive to noise and may be biased depending on the length of the time series. Here, we introduce a simple randomized permutation test (rWPE) to assess whether a time series is intrinsically more predictable than white noise. 2. We apply rWPE to both simulated and empirical data to assess its performance and usefulness. To do this, we simulate population dynamics under various scenarios, including a linear trend, chaotic, periodic and equilibrium dynamics. We further test this approach with observed abundance time series for 932 species across four orders of animals from the Global Population Dynamics Database. Finally, using Adélie ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) and emperor penguin ( Aptenodytes forsteri ) time series as case studies, we demonstrate the application of rWPE to multiple populations for a single species. 3. We show that rWPE can determine whether a system is significantly more predictable than white noise, even with time series as short as 10 years that show an apparent trend under biologically realistic stochasticity levels. Additionally, rWPE has statistical power close to 100% when time series are at least 30 time steps long and show chaotic or periodic dynamics. Power decreases to ~10% under equilibrium dynamics, irrespective of time series length. Among four classes of animal taxa, mammals have the highest relative frequency (28%) of time series that are both longer than 30 time steps and indistinguishable from white noise in terms of complexity, followed by insects (16%), birds (16%) and bony fishes (11%). 4. rWPE is a straightforward and useful method widely applicable to any time series, including short ones. By informing forecasters of the inherent limitations to a system's predictability, it can guide a modeller's expectations for forecast performance.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

From theory to experiments for testing the proximate mechanisms of mast seeding: An agenda for an experimental ecology

Highly variable and synchronised production of seeds by plant populations is called masting and is implicated in many important ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. The lack of experimental studies prevents underlying mechanisms from being explicitly tested, and thereby precludes meaningful predictions on the consequences of changing environments for plant reproductive patterns and global vegetation dynamics. Here we review the most relevant hypothetical drivers of masting and outline a research agenda that takes the biology of masting from a largely observational field of ecology to one rooted in mechanistic understanding. We divide the experimental framework into three main processes: resource dynamics, pollen limitation, and genetic and hormonal regulation, and illustrate how specific predictions about proximate mechanisms can be tested, highlighting the few successful experiments as examples. We envision that the experiments we outline will deliver new insights into how and why masting patterns might respond to a changing environment.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2013

Testing common assumptions in studies of songbird nest success

We studied Ovenbird Seiurus aurocapilla and Golden-winged Warbler Vermivora chrysoptera populations in northern Minnesota, USA, to test two common assumptions in studies of songbird nest success: (1) that the condition of an empty nest on or near its expected fledge date is an indicator of nest fate; and (2) that the presence of a fledgling or family group within a territory confirms a successful nest in that territory. We monitored the condition of nests and used radiotelemetry to monitor juveniles through the expected fledging date and early post-fledging period. Of nests that contained nestlings 1–2 days before the expected fledge date, fates were misidentified using nest condition alone for 9.5% of Ovenbird nests, but those misidentifications were made in both directions (succeeded or failed), yielding only a small bias in estimated nest success. However, 20% of Golden-winged Warbler nests were misidentified as successful using nest condition during the final visit interval, biasing the nest success estimate upward by 21–28% depending on the treatment of uncertain nest fates. Fledgling Ovenbirds from 58% of nests travelled beyond their natal territory within 24 h, rising to 98% after 5 days, and those fledglings travelled up to 390 m from nests within 10 days of fledging. Fledgling Golden-winged Warblers from 13% of nests travelled beyond their natal territory within 24 h, rising to 85% after 5 days, and those fledglings travelled up to 510 m from nests within 10 days of fledging. We conclude that nest condition and fledgling presence can be misleading indicators of nest fate, probably commonly biasing nest success estimates upward, and we recommend that these assumptions should be tested in additional species.

Minnesota↗
USGS2012

Using stable isotopes to test for trophic niche partitioning: a case study with stream salamanders and fish

1. Stream salamanders and fish often co-occur even though fish prey on and outcompete salamanders. However, the mechanisms that allow palatable salamanders to coexist with fish are unknown. 2. We tested mechanisms in the field that promote coexistence between Idaho giant salamanders ( Dicamptodon aterrimus ) and stream salmonid fishes in headwater streams. Previous research in this system indicated that salamander dispersal did not promote coexistence with fish. We tested the hypothesis that D. aterrimus shift their diet when they occur with fish, facilitating coexistence through local niche partitioning. 3. We used nitrogen and carbon stable isotopes to describe the trophic niche of D. aterrimus and fish in three co-occurring populations of salamanders and fish and three populations of salamanders without fish. We used two approaches to quantify trophic niche partitioning with stable isotopes: 95% kernel density estimators and isotopic mixing models. 4. We found that salamanders and fish were generalists that consumed aquatic invertebrates primarily, but both species were also cannibalistic and predatory on one another. We also found no support for trophic niche partitioning as a coexistence mechanism because there were no differences in the trophic niche metrics among salamander populations with and without fish. 5. Although we did not identify mechanisms that facilitate salamander and fish coexistence, our empirical data and use of novel approaches to describe the trophic niche did yield important insights on the role of predator–prey interactions and cannibalism as alternative coexistence mechanisms. In addition, we found that 95% kernel estimators are a simple and robust method to describe population-level measure of trophic structure.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2009

Habitat structure mediates predation risk for sedentary prey: Experimental tests of alternative hypotheses

Predation is an important and ubiquitous selective force that can shape habitat preferences of prey species, but tests of alternative mechanistic hypotheses of habitat influences on predation risk are lacking. 2. We studied predation risk at nest sites of a passerine bird and tested two hypotheses based on theories of predator foraging behaviour. The total-foliage hypothesis predicts that predation will decline in areas of greater overall vegetation density by impeding cues for detection by predators. The potential-prey-site hypothesis predicts that predation decreases where predators must search more unoccupied potential nest sites. 3. Both observational data and results from a habitat manipulation provided clear support for the potential-prey-site hypothesis and rejection of the total-foliage hypothesis. Birds chose nest patches containing both greater total foliage and potential nest site density (which were correlated in their abundance) than at random sites, yet only potential nest site density significantly influenced nest predation risk. 4. Our results therefore provided a clear and rare example of adaptive nest site selection that would have been missed had structural complexity or total vegetation density been considered alone. 5. Our results also demonstrated that interactions between predator foraging success and habitat structure can be more complex than simple impedance or occlusion by vegetation. ?? 2008 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2009

Pilot- and bench-scale testing of faecal indicator bacteria survival in marine beach sand near point sources

Aim: Factors affecting faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and pathogen survival/persistence in sand remain largely unstudied. This work elucidates how biological and physical factors affect die-off in beach sand following sewage spills. Methods and Results: Solar disinfection with mechanical mixing was pilot-tested as a disinfection procedure after a large sewage spill in Los Angeles. Effects of solar exposure, mechanical mixing, predation and/or competition, season, and moisture were tested at bench scale. First-order decay constants for Escherichia coli ranged between -0??23 and -1??02 per day, and for enterococci between -0??5 and -1??0 per day. Desiccation was a dominant factor for E. coli but not enterococci inactivation. Effects of season were investigated through a comparison of experimental results from winter, spring, and fall. Conclusions: Moisture was the dominant factor controlling E. coli inactivation kinetics. Initial microbial community and sand temperature were also important factors. Mechanical mixing, common in beach grooming, did not consistently reduce bacterial levels. Significance and Impact of the Study: Inactivation rates are mainly dependent on moisture and high sand temperature. Chlorination was an effective disinfection treatment in sand microcosms inoculated with raw influent. ?? 2009 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Journal of Applied Microbiology↗
USGS2005

Species-energy relationship in the deep sea: A test using the Quaternary fossil record

Little is known about the processes regulating species richness in deep-sea communities. Here we take advantage of natural experiments involving climate change to test whether predictions of the species-energy hypothesis hold in the deep sea. In addition, we test for the relationship between temperature and species richness predicted by a recent model based on biochemical kinetics of metabolism. Using the deep-sea fossil record of benthic foraminifera and statistical meta-analyses of temperature-richness and productivity-richness relationships in 10 deep-sea cores, we show that temperature but not productivity is a significant predictor of species richness over the past c. 130 000 years. Our results not only show that the temperature-richness relationship in the deep-sea is remarkably similar to that found in terrestrial and shallow marine habitats, but also that species richness tracks temperature change over geological time, at least on scales of c. 100 000 years. Thus, predicting biotic response to global climate change in the deep sea would require better understanding of how temperature regulates the occurrences and geographical ranges of species. ??2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2005

Cross-well slug testing in unconfined aquifers: A case study from the Sleepers River Watershed, Vermont

Normally, slug test measurements are limited to the well in which the water level is perturbed. Consequently, it is often difficult to obtain reliable estimates of hydraulic properties, particularly if the aquifer is anisotropic or if there is a wellbore skin. In this investigation, we use partially penetrating stress and observation wells to evaluate specific storage, radial hydraulic conductivity and anisotropy of the aquifer, and the hydraulic conductivity of the borehole skin. The study site is located in the W9 subbasin of the Sleepers River Research Watershed, Vermont. At the site, ∼3 m of saturated till are partially penetrated by a stress well located in the center of the unconfined aquifer and six observation wells located above, below, and at the depth of the stress well at radial distances of 1.2 and 2.4 m. The observation wells were shut in with inflatable packers. The semianalytical solution of Butler (1995) was used to conduct a sensitivity analysis and to interpret slug test results. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the response of the stress well is primarily sensitive to radial hydraulic conductivity, less sensitiive to anisotropy and the conductivity of the borehole skin, and nearly insensitive to specific storage. In contrast, the responses of the observation wells are sensitive to all four parameters. Interpretation of the field data was facilitated by generating type curves in a manner analogous to the method of Cooper et al. (1967). Because the value of radial hydraulic conductivty is obtained from a match point, the number of unknowns is reduced to three. The estimated values of radial hydraulic conductivity and specific storage are comparable to those derived from the methods of Bouwer and Rice (1976) and Cooper et al. (1967). The values and skin conductivity, however, could not have been obtained without the use of observation wells.

Ground Water↗