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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

UAS and high-resolution satellite imagery improve the accuracy of cheatgrass detection across an invaded Yellowstone landscape

Context Cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) is a problem across the western United States, where it outcompetes and replaces native grass species, alters habitats, and increases the risk of wildfires. Cheatgrass greens up earlier in the growing season compared to native grasses, making it classifiable with multi-temporal and multi-spectral remote sensing. Objectives We mapped cheatgrass at different scales in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem using 10-m Sentinel-2 imagery, 3-m PlanetScope, and 10-cm Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS) imagery. We compared these maps to field-collected data to address 1) variation in seasonal phenological signals of native and cheatgrass patches, 2) the influence of scale on detectability and map accuracy across our study area. Results Model accuracy to predict cheatgrass presence increased with imagery resolution and ranged from 83% using 10-m Sentinel-2 to 94% with the integration of PlanetScope and UAS imagery. While there was spatial agreement across models, the fusion of UAS data with satellite sources allowed the detection of small cheatgrass with more precision. Our novel use of NExR and dNExR (a redness and differenced redness index) data in the classification of cheatgrass capitalizes on the senescence of cheatgrass during peak summer periods where cloud free imagery is more prevalent. Conclusions Our satellite and UAS-based models of cheatgrass prediction compare the fusion of very high resolution imagery and phenological time differencing to identify infested areas. Tradeoffs between accuracy and expense lead to important questions for management applications.

Montana

Simulation modeling to assess line transect distance sampling under a range of translocation scenarios

The accuracy of posttranslocation population monitoring methods is critical to assessing long-term success in translocation programs. Translocation can produce unique challenges to monitoring efforts; therefore, it is important to understand the flexibility and robustness of commonly used monitoring methods. In Florida, USA, thousands of gopher tortoises Gopherus polyphemus have been, and continue to be, translocated from development sites to permitted recipient sites. These recipient sites create a broad range of potential monitoring scenarios due to variability in soft-release strategies, habitat conditions, and population demographics. Line transect distance sampling is an effective method for monitoring natural tortoise populations, but it is currently untested for translocated populations. We therefore produced 3,024 individual-based, spatially explicit scenarios of translocated tortoise populations that differed in recipient site and tortoise population properties, based on real-world examples, literature review, and expert opinion. We virtually sampled simulated tortoise populations by using line transect distance sampling methods and built a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the population density for each simulation, which incorporated individual-level covariates (i.e., burrow width and burrow occupancy). Line transect distance sampling was largely appropriate for the conditions that typify gopher tortoise recipient sites, particularly when detection probability on the transect lines was greater than or equal to 0.85. Designing the layout of transects relative to the orientation of soft-release pens, to avoid possible sampling biases that lead to extreme outliers in estimates of tortoise densities, resulted in more accurate population estimates. We also suggest that use of individual-level covariates, applied using a Bayesian framework as demonstrated in our study, may improve the applicability of line transect distance sampling surveys in a variety of contexts and that simulation can be a powerful tool for assessing survey design in complex sampling situations.

Florida

Landscape capability models as a tool to predict fine-scale forest bird occupancy and abundance

Context Species-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning. Objectives We tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird species representative of spruce-fir, mixed conifer-hardwood, and riparian and wooded wetland macrohabitats. Methods We compiled point count data sets used for biological inventory, species monitoring, and field studies across the northeastern United States to create an independent validation data set. Our validation explicitly accounted for underestimation in validation data using joint distance and time removal sampling. Results Blackpoll warbler ( Setophaga striata ), wood thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ), and Louisiana ( Parkesia motacilla ) and northern waterthrush ( P. noveboracensis ) models were validated as predicting variation in abundance, although this varied from not biologically meaningful (1%) to strongly meaningful (59%). We verified all seven species models [including ovenbird ( Seiurus aurocapilla ), blackburnian ( Setophaga fusca ) and cerulean warbler ( Setophaga cerulea )], as all were positively related to occupancy data. Conclusions LC models represent a useful tool for conservation planning owing to their predictive ability over a regional extent. As improved remote-sensed data become available, LC layers are updated, which will improve predictions.

Landscape Ecology

A new global 1-km dataset of percentage tree cover derived from remote sensing

Accurate assessment of the spatial extent of forest cover is a crucial requirement for quantifying the sources and sinks of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere. In the more immediate context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, implementation of the Kyoto Protocol calls for estimates of carbon stocks for a baseline year as well as for subsequent years. Data sources from country level statistics and other ground-based information are based on varying definitions of 'forest' and are consequently problematic for obtaining spatially and temporally consistent carbon stock estimates. By combining two datasets previously derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 km spatial resolution, we have generated a prototype global map depicting percentage tree cover and associated proportions of trees with different leaf longevity (evergreen and deciduous) and leaf type (broadleaf and needleleaf). The product is intended for use in terrestrial carbon cycle models, in conjunction with other spatial datasets such as climate and soil type, to obtain more consistent and reliable estimates of carbon stocks. The percentage tree cover dataset is available through the Global Land Cover Facility at the University of Maryland at http://glcf.umiacs.umd.edu.

Global Change Biology

Defining blue carbon: The emergence of a climate context for coastal carbon dynamics

Blue Carbon Ecosystems (BCEs) are defined as coastal wetland ecosystems with manageable and atmospherically significant carbon stocks and fluxes. Policy and management opportunities have promoted the emergence of blue carbon as a concept and spurred scientific interest to reduce uncertainties in coastal carbon budgets. The four major BCEs are generally classified by their plant communities: tidal marshes, tidal freshwater forests, mangroves, and seagrass meadows.

Book chapter

Scale-specific habitat relationships influence patch occupancy: defining neighborhoods to optimize the effectiveness of landscape-scale grassland bird conservation

Context Beyond the recognized importance of protecting large areas of contiguous habitat, conservation efforts for many species are complicated by the fact that patch suitability may also be affected by characteristics of the landscape within which the patch is located. Currently, little is known about the spatial scales at which species respond to different aspects of the landscape surrounding an occupied patch. Objectives Using grassland bird point count data, we describe an approach to evaluating scale-specific effects of landscape composition on patch occupancy. Methods We used data from 793 point count surveys conducted in idle and grazed grasslands across Wisconsin, USA from 2012 to 2014 to evaluate scale-dependencies in the response of grassland birds to landscape composition. Patch occupancy models were used to evaluate the relationship between occupancy and landscape composition at scales from 100 to 3000 m. Results Bobolink ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus ) exhibited a pattern indicating selection for grassland habitats in the surrounding landscape at all spatial scales while selecting against other habitats. Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ) displayed evidence of scale sensitivity for all habitat types. Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ) showed a strong positive response to pasture and idle grass at all scales and negatively to cropland at large scales. Unlike other species, patch occupancy by Henslow’s Sparrow ( A. henslowii ) was primarily influenced by patch area. Conclusions Our results suggest that both working grasslands (pasture) and idle conservation grasslands can play an important role in grassland bird conservation but also highlight the importance of considering species-specific patch and landscape characteristics for effective conservation.

Landscape Ecology

Actualistic models of mantle metasomatism documented in a composite xenolith from Dish Hill, California

Major and trace-element whole rock and mineral variations in composite hornblendite-peridotite xenolith Ba-2-1, from Dish Hill, CA, are due to a single event of metasomatism in the mantle. The hornblendite is the crystallized selvage of a dike conduit charged with incompatible-element-enriched hydrous mafic magma. The magma infiltrated the refractory peridotite wallrock, reacted with its constituent minerals, and simultaneously deposited amphibole. The systematic data from this study show considerable variation in isotopic values and trace elements. These data provide insight into a mantle process that was defined previously from samples without context, lacking evidence about the number or source of metasomatic events. In the contact zone of Ba-2-1, peridotite is enriched in Fe, Ti, CO 2 ) and H 2 O; clinopyroxene and amphibole also are enriched in Fe and Ti, but clinopyroxene appears slightly depleted in CaO. Compared to chondrites, peridotite, clinopyroxene, and probably amphibole are enriched in light rare earth (LREE cn ) and other incompatible trace elements. Values of 87 Sr 86 Sr "> 87 Sr 86 Sr and 143 Nd 144 Nd "> 143 Nd 144 Nd in the contact zone are close to isotopic equilibrium with the dike. Whole rock and constituent clinopyroxene compositions change to those of refractory peridotite with distance from the contact. These compositional variations were modelled using Gresens' equation for whole-rock major and minor elements, and calculations for isotopic ratios and REEs, which emulate the effects of Chromatographic fractionation. The choice of endmembers was restricted to compositions actually present in mantle samples from Dish Hill. Model results indicate that: 1. the variations can be explained as the result of a single metasomatic event, probably a single pulse of previously fractionated liquid; 2. the ratio of total interacting liquid to peridotite was at least 1:3 by weight in the contact zone; and 3. the composition of the metasomatic liquid changed progressively as it infiltrated beyond that zone. The small distance over which variations occur is due to the small amount of liquid that infiltrated. Only in the contact zone was peridotite wallrock saturated by a liquid composition similar to the dike. Comparison of the Ba-2-1 data with those of another xenolith from Dish Hill suggests that the compositional variations of mantle metasomatism result from both the compositional contrast between the metasomatizing liquid and wallrock and the relative abundances of each. Compositional and volumetric variations of mantle partial melts and their fractionates, and repeated events of melting and reaction in contiguous mantle, can create broad ranges of metasomatic “signatures” from the same process.

California

Effect of stream permanence on predation risk of lotic crayfish by riparian predators

Given the importance of crayfish in stream ecosystems, gaining insight into the role of stream permanence in maintaining predator–prey interactions is critical. Our objectives were to determine the influence of stream permanence and season on crayfish predation and assess the role of stream permanence and crayfish density on the presence of predators, while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted surveys of crayfish density, mammalian scat, and environmental variables within 10 intermittent and 10 permanent streams in the Ozark Highlands. We used occupancy modeling to assess the relationship between predator presence, crayfish density, and environmental variables. Stream permanence did not play a role in determining relative frequency of occurrence or percent volume of crayfish prey in mammalian diets. However, percent volume and relative frequency of crayfish prey found in scats differed by season, with both highest in spring and summer. The relative frequency and percent volume of fish prey showed a significant interaction of season by stream permanence, which may be the first instance of this observation. Procyon lotor (Raccoon) had the highest detection probability ( p = 0.39), whereas Neovison vison (American Mink; p = 0.15) and Lontra canadensis (River Otter; p = 0.03) had low detection probabilities. Further study into predator–prey interactions in the context of hydrology, particularly when related to imperiled groups like freshwater crayfishes, is needed since climate change is expected to alter hydrologic patterns.

Arkansas, Missouri

Probabilistic patterns of inundation and biogeomorphic changes due to sea-level rise along the northeastern U.S. Atlantic coast

Context Coastal landscapes evolve in response to sea-level rise (SLR) through a variety of geologic processes and ecological feedbacks. When the SLR rate surpasses the rate at which these processes build elevation and drive lateral migration, inundation is likely. Objectives To examine the role of land cover diversity and composition in landscape response to SLR across the northeastern United States. Methods Using an existing probabilistic framework, we quantify the probability of inundation, a measure of vulnerability, under different SLR scenarios on the coastal landscape. Resistant areas—wherein a dynamic response is anticipated—are defined as unlikely (p < 0.33) to inundate. Results are assessed regionally for different land cover types and at 26 sites representing varying levels of land cover diversity. Results Modeling results suggest that by the 2050s, 44% of low-lying, habitable land in the region is unlikely to inundate, further declining to 36% by the 2080s. In addition to a decrease in SLR resistance with time, these results show an increasing uncertainty that the coastal landscape will continue to evolve in response to SLR as it has in the past. We also find that resistance to SLR is correlated with land cover composition, wherein sites containing land cover types adaptable to SLR impacts show greater potential to undergo biogeomorphic state shifts rather than inundating with time. Conclusions Our findings support other studies that have highlighted the importance of ecological composition and diversity in stabilizing the physical landscape and suggest that flexible planning strategies, such as adaptive management, are particularly well suited for SLR preparation in diverse coastal settings.

Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New H

Reservoir evolution, downstream sediment transport, downstream channel change, and synthesis of geomorphic responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to water years 2012–18 streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Chapter A. Introduction Fall Creek Dam impounds Fall Creek Lake, a 10-kilometer-long reservoir in western Oregon and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) primarily for flood-risk management (or flood control) in late autumn through early spring months, as well as for water quality, irrigation, recreation, and habitat in late spring through early autumn. Since 2011 (water year [WY] 2012), Fall Creek Lake has been temporarily drawn down each year to facilitate downstream passage of juvenile spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) through the 55-meter (m) high dam. This annual dam operation is temporary, typically lasting about 1–2 weeks from WY 2012 through 2020 (drawdown operations in WY 2022–24 have increased to more than 6 weeks). Drawdown of the reservoir results in lake levels being lowered to the elevation near the historical, pre-dam streambed. The annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18 have improved fish passage and led the USACE to formally adopt streambed drawdowns as part of annual operations at Fall Creek Dam. However, temporarily lowering the lake to streambed creates free-flowing conditions in the reservoir that result in the erosion and episodic export of predominantly sand and finer-grained sediments (less than 2 millimeters [mm]) to the lower gravel-bed reaches of Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The introduction of large volumes of sand and finer-grain sediment into the dam-regulated reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam prompted questions about the geomorphic responses to annual streambed drawdowns within Fall Creek Lake and downstream reaches along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with USACE initiated a comprehensive geomorphic and sediment transport investigation to assess the coupled processes of reservoir erosion, sediment evacuation from Fall Creek Lake, and patterns of sediment transport and deposition in reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam that have resulted from annual streambed drawdowns. The purpose of this report is to systematically describe the processes of sediment erosion, transport, and deposition at Fall Creek Lake and geomorphic interactions between reaches upstream and downstream from Fall Creek Dam that relate to dam operations. Specifically, this report focuses on evaluating geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 through 2018 and placing drawdown-induced geomorphic responses within the broader context of physiographic and historical conditions and dam operations of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers. Key objectives for this study were to characterize changes in reservoir morphology and substrate at Fall Creek Lake, describe the character and temporal pattern of sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam, characterize geomorphic changes in channel reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam, and relate these data to the annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18. This study uses multiple independent monitoring and measurement approaches to assess site, reach, and river-scale geomorphic responses to drawdowns to inform dam and reservoir management. Patterns and processes of reservoir evolution were assessed with geomorphic mapping and volumetric analyses of topography through comparison of multiple digital surface models (DSMs). Just downstream from Fall Creek Dam, analyses of sediment export from the reservoir focused on suspended sediment but also incorporated bedload analyses to assess sediment sizes. Geomorphic assessments downstream from the dam used reach-scale and site-scale approaches to document changes in channel morphology and substrate, including site measurements of sand and finer-grained sediment deposition and in-channel bed-material, volumetric change analyses from comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs), and repeat geomorphic mapping. Findings from this study inform river management and dam operations by providing an understanding of (1) coupled upstream-downstream geomorphic responses to the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns, (2) geomorphic responses of Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns in comparison to drawdowns at other large dams, (3) controls on reservoir erosion and downstream geomorphic responses, and (4) implications for future hydrogeomorphic changes that may result from continued drawdowns and monitoring activities to assess those changes. Chapter B. Reservoir Morphology and Evolution Related to Dam Operations at Fall Creek Lake To understand the volume and distribution of sediment accumulation in Fall Creek Lake since dam closure in 1965, decadal-scale sedimentation patterns (spanning approximately 1965–2016) are evaluated using a combination of storage curve analyses and geomorphic mapping. Short-term (drawdown event-scale) patterns of erosion, sedimentation, and sediment export downstream are evaluated using a combination of geomorphic mapping and change detection analyses that quantify the distribution and total volume of sediment erosion and deposition within Fall Creek Lake. Geomorphic mapping of reservoir topography and analyses of historical datasets reveals four categories of landforms and sediment processes within Fall Creek Lake related to lake level operations: lacustrine sedimentation expressed in the reservoir floor, fluvial erosion and deposition within historical stream channels during streambed drawdowns, channel-like features created by erosion within the reservoir floor during streambed drawdowns, and erosion on reservoir hillslopes. Where the reservoir floor is mapped for this study as pelagic (deep water), deposition up to 3 meters (m) thick by lacustrine processes and burial of pre-dam topography with deposits thinning toward the edges of the valley floor and upstream areas of reservoir are observed. Despite over 50 years of sediment accumulation since dam construction, the main stream channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks (or reservoir thalwegs) through the reservoir are well defined, though their distinct morphology is likely influenced by a long history of recurring historical drawdowns to or near streambed since dam construction. Unregulated streamflow and sediment transport through the reservoir primarily are confined to these channels during the streambed drawdown periods. Erosional channel-like features created by drawdowns are carved through underlying, unconsolidated reservoir floor sediments and are most prominent in the lower reservoir below minimum conservation pool (the low pool elevation during winter flood season); sediment generated from the formation of these drawdown channels is more likely to be transported through and out of the reservoir than sediment deposits along the reservoir hillslopes at the valley margins that are separated from main channels by areas of low-gradient reservoir floor. Morphologic changes in the lower reservoir topography between January 2012 and November 2016 indicate overall net erosion of about 129,500 cubic meters (m 3 ). The most prominent geomorphic changes occurred along the main channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks near the Fall Creek Dam where incision, lateral migration, and slumping banks resulted in vertical and lateral adjustments to channel position, whereas most changes fell below the detectable limit on higher-elevation reservoir floor surfaces except where erosion occurred along features mapped as drawdown channels. Chapter C. Sediment Delivery from Fall Creek Lake and Transport through Downstream Reaches USGS implemented a sediment monitoring program in WY 2013–18 to evaluate the quantity and character of reservoir sediment exported from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns. Turbidity and suspended sediments were monitored annually autumn through spring to span the WY 2013–18 streambed drawdowns; however, unequal monitoring timeframes each year reduced the ability to compare results and factors affecting sediment export from the reservoir difficult between years. These data were originally measured to develop regressions and compute suspended-sediment loads (SSL). Bedload sediment monitoring from a cableway at the Fall Creek streamgage was completed in the autumn-winter of WY 2013 and 2017. The limited number of samples and presumed variability in sediment supply from the reservoir precluded construction of streamflow and bedload discharge relations to compute more than instantaneous bedload. Sand and finer-grained silts and clays were transported from the reservoir in suspension, though some coarser grains (up to 32 mm) were also mobilized and transported downstream from the dam as bedload. Observations of increased sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam coincided with lake levels approaching about 3 m (10 feet [ft] or elevation 690 ft) above the streambed regulating outlets. Suspended-sediment loads computed for the full monitoring periods WY 2013–18 at the Fall Creek streamgage, located 1.4 kilometers (km) downstream from Fall Creek Dam, range from 54,700 metric tons (t) in WY 2013 to 13,900 t in WY 2018. Although the total annual SSL varied from year to year, the overall seasonal patterns of suspended sediment transport throughout each year were similar during monitoring in WY 2013-18. Suspended-sediment loads were low prior to the drawdown, then increased rapidly as lake levels lowered and approached the streambed. In the weeks following the drawdown period, as pool levels were increased, SSL remained slightly elevated above pre-drawdown levels but generally declined through the following winter and spring except during streamflow-driven pulses of suspended-sediment transport. WY 2013 had the greatest total computed SSL for each streambed drawdown and partial-year monitoring period. SSL computed for the partial-year period have generally decreased since WY 2013 and have varied by about 6,800 t with the exception of WY 2014. WY 2014 SSL reflects anomalously low sediment export due to low streamflows and freezing conditions that stabilized reservoir floor deposits. Bedload measurements in the short 1.4-km reach between Fall Creek Dam and the Fall Creek streamgage showed an inverse correlation between bedload transport rates and discharge, which probably reflects diminishing supply of coarse-sized sediment. Sand was more abundant (60–100 percent) than gravel in bedload samples confirming sand and finer-grained sediment dominated sediment evacuated from the reservoir during streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Chapter D. Geomorphic Responses to Fall Creek Lake Streambed Drawdowns Downstream from Fall Creek Dam In the days, weeks, and months following streambed drawdown operations at Fall Creek Dam through WY 2018, sites downstream from the dam displayed a variety of geomorphic responses to reservoir sediment delivery within the main channel and overbank areas. Evaluation of streambed elevations at two streamgages located 1.4 km downstream from the dam on Fall Creek and 16.3 km downstream from the dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River indicated the effects of drawdown sediment on bed elevations were modest and transient. Repeat particle size measurements (October 2015 and September 2016) at five sites along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River showed similar grain-sized distributions that do not reveal substantial deposition of fine-grained sediment related to the WY 2016 streambed drawdown. Altogether, these findings indicate that transport capacity in the main, low-flow channels of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River during WY 2012–18 was sufficient to mobilize and evacuate reservoir sediments from streambed drawdowns or other bank material and tributary sources. However, other monitoring for this study indicate low-velocity zones in off-channel areas are prime locations for sand and finer-grain sediment deposition. Patterns of overbank sediment accumulation indicate that the magnitude and timing of overbank deposition on bars and low-elevation floodplain varies with proximity to the dam, geomorphic setting, streamflows, and other factors. Sand and finer-grained reservoir sediments carried as suspended-sediment load in the reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam were deposited in overbank areas as observed with clay-horizon markers during WY 2016–17. Overbank deposition quantified with Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) software evaluated landform-scale patterns of erosion and deposition using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys at two sites in the Upper Fall Creek reach and one site in the Jasper reach for 3 years (2012–15) and one site in the Clearwater reach for 6 years (2009–15). Deposition thickness and spatial patterns from the GCD analysis were variable; some sites had dispersed but measurable deposition while at others, deposition was highly localized and exceeded 1 m in depth. Patterns of overbank deposition illustrate interactions among bar morphology, local hydraulics, and suspended-sediment transport dynamics that can create patches of highly localized deposition. The measured deposition at the two Fall Creek GCD sites likely resulted from reservoir sediments released from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns in WY 2016 and 2017 because the limited sediment inputs from bank material (geomorphically laterally stable reach) or tributaries (no significant tributaries) provided few other sediment sources. On the Middle Fork Willamette River, observed patterns of overbank deposition could reflect sediment sourced from upstream tributaries, bank erosion, or Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdown operations. Despite the introduction of several thousand tons of reservoir sediment delivered from the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns to below-dam river corridors, reach-scale mapping of channel features downstream from Fall Creek Dam shows minimal evidence of changes in channel planform or landforms that can be attributed to a drawdowns in WY 2012–16. On Upper Fall Creek reach, widespread increases in gravel bars or other in-channel sediment did not result from the five streambed drawdowns. The main changes attributable to sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake were localized increases in vegetated bar area, particularly on channel margin areas where sand and finer-grain sediment was deposited and rapidly colonized by vegetation. The area of mapped secondary water features decreased between 2005 and 2016, but that may be due to lower discharges depicted in the 2016 aerial photographs and less mapped area of inundation. Primary changes along the Lower Fall Creek reach include a 6.4 percent decrease in area of secondary water features between 2011 and 2016, and a nearly twofold increase in the area of unvegetated bars. Immediately downstream from the Fall Creek confluence, there were negligible changes in the location and areas of vegetated bars and the main wetted channel between 2005 and 2016, and local increases in bar area cannot be attributed solely to deposition of reservoir sediments from Fall Creek Lake because (1) areas along the Middle Fork Willamette River just upstream from the Fall Creek confluence display similar type and magnitude of changes and (2) some of the increases at the confluence area pre-date the drawdowns. The cumulative effect of sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 to 2016 on downstream channel planform and landforms are modest compared to the river-scale transformations and planform changes that occurred in the decades following dam construction. Chapter E. Discussion of Geomorphic Responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to Streambed Drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake Multiple aspects of Fall Creek Dam infrastructure and operations exert first-order controls on the magnitudes of reservoir erosion that occur during the streambed drawdowns and ultimately determine the sediment delivery to downstream reaches. Key aspects of the dam and its operations that are most relevant to assessing geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns include the (1) dam infrastructure, including configuration and size of regulating outlets and their proximity to the streambed which dictates the capacity and competence of the river to deliver sediment to downstream reaches and mode of sediment transport as suspended-sediment load or bedload; (2) frequency of historical drawdowns and long-term, year-round dam operations and lake level management, which partly dictate reservoir morphology and locations and magnitudes of readily erodible materials; (3) dam operations and hydroclimatic conditions during the streambed drawdown (including length of the drawdown and streamflows entering the reservoir), which directly control the timing, duration and magnitude of reservoir erosion and sediment evacuation; and (4) dam operations following the streambed drawdown operation that regulate streamflows (and thereby sediment transport conditions) downstream of Fall Creek Dam which primarily reflect interactions between hydroclimatic conditions and flood control operations. Patterns of sediment erosion and evacuation observed in this study at Fall Creek Lake from WY 2012–18 suggest that reservoir erosion during annual streambed drawdowns may remain similar or decrease in future years assuming (1) annual streambed drawdown operations are implemented in similar manner as the WY 2012–18 drawdowns (in terms of duration, late autumn or early winter implementation, rate of pool-level lowering to reach streambed, and other factors), (2) streambed drawdowns coincide with similar conditions as were observed WY 2012–18 (similar sediment yield into reservoir, low reservoir inflows, limited precipitation, moderate air temperature), and (3) no major geomorphic changes in the main reservoir channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks occur (for example, channel avulsion). Under such conditions, it is hypothesized that the stream channel within the reservoir would achieve a quasi-equilibrium state with respect to annual influx and export of sediment and aided by the substantial amount of in-channel bedrock, will remain laterally stable without erosion across reservoir deposits. Patterns of sediment transport measured at the Fall Creek streamgage downstream from Fall Creek Dam provide insight into the potential effects of future streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Analyses of suspended sediment measured in WY 2013–18 show a major reduction in suspended-sediment loads between WY 2013 and later years, indicating streamflows transporting sediment through the reservoir to downstream reaches during streambed drawdowns have become supply limited. The 6-year suspended-sediment monitoring and sampling program is insufficient to make predictions about future sediment transport conditions because of uneven monitoring periods and varying controls on reservoir sediment erosion. It is likely that future suspended-sediment loads will be variable but similar to those observed in WY 2015–18 if operational, climatic, and geomorphological factors remain similar to those monitored WY 2015–18. Suspended-sediment loads downstream from Fall Creek Lake will likely remain highest when regulating outlets are fully open and Fall Creek is free flowing with the reservoir fully drained with little to no residual pool. Over time, it is possible that the suspended-sediment loads would reflect mobilization of reservoir sediment deposited in the previous year rather than erosion of sediment deposited years or decades earlier. Bedload is likely to remain a small fraction of the total sediment load evacuated from the reservoir and is relatively modest compared with pre-dam bedload transport rates because most coarse sediment remains trapped by the dam. If sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake and ensuing streamflow conditions follow a similar pattern in the future as was assessed in this study spanning WY 2012–18, near-term geomorphic adjustments downstream of the dam are expected to be modest. Barring major operational, climatic, and geomorphological changes, local site-scale deposition on bars, overbank areas, or off-channel features that persists several months after the streambed drawdown will likely continue to be highly variable, ranging from negligible to several centimeters of deposition. At the landform-scale, low velocity areas nearest to Fall Creek Dam will likely continue to undergo rapid deposition immediately during and after a streambed drawdown event, similar to patterns observed for WY 2012–18. Some of the sediment entering these off-channel features and margin areas may be temporarily stored, then later remobilized and dispersed farther downstream. But if newly deposited sediment persists through the following spring, there is a greater likelihood that local vegetation will establish, reinforce deposited material, and trap sediment during later drawdowns. The reach-scale geomorphic changes may become more apparent if (1) streambed drawdowns continued for several decades, and geomorphic changes were measured at decadal scales or (2) the amount of sediment introduced to downstream reaches substantially increased and (or) sediment transport capacity decreased. The continued streamflow regulation of Fall Creek Dam after sediment releases provides an opportunity to strategically manage streamflows during and after the streambed drawdowns to minimize downstream sediment impacts and ensure other operational thresholds are satisfied. This study provides a comprehensive foundation of datasets and geomorphic analyses to inform dam operations at Fall Creek Lake, monitor sediment transport downstream, and consider operational schemes for future drawdowns. The datasets from this study also provide baselines of sediment transport and geomorphic conditions to assess future changes in reservoir and downstream environments. Future monitoring could be tailored to address specific questions regarding the long-term geomorphic effects of streambed drawdowns on fluvial habitats, flood hazards, cultural resources, or downstream water quality. Future monitoring activities could focus on the relevant geomorphic processes and spatial domains within the three categories used for this study: (1) reservoir erosion and net sediment evacuation, (2) sediment delivery to downstream reaches, including magnitude and temporal pattern of sediment transport, and (3) geomorphic responses of downstream reaches to sediment delivery. Specifically, high priority future monitoring activities could include: Repeat topographic or photographic surveys in the reservoir to characterize changes occurring within individual drawdowns, to quantify sediment export, to determine temporal changes in reservoir storage, and to identify locations of erosion and deposition. Continuous, year-round turbidity monitoring supplemented with suspended-sediment measurements at a streamflow-gaging station immediately downstream from the dam to quantify sediment export. Repeat geomorphic monitoring, mapping, or modeling in downstream reaches to track changes in channel and over bank features using a combination of site- and reach-scale monitoring approaches. This could support assessments of sediment deposition and ensuing vegetation encroachment on flood hazards and habitats and examine how sediment transport and depositional processes may be affected by different sediment supply, streamflow, or dam management scenarios.

Oregon

Public review draft: A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to enhance carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be solicited to construct realistic and meaningful scenarios. The methods for mapping the current LULC and ecosystem disturbances will require the extensive use of both remote-sensing data and in-situ (for example, forest inventory data) to capture and characterize landscape-change events. For future potential LULC and ecosystem disturbances, key drivers such as socioeconomic, policy, and climate assumptions will be used in addition to biophysical data. The product of these analyses will be a series of maps for each future year for each scenario. These annual maps will form the basis for estimating carbon storage and GHG emissions. For terrestrial ecosystems, carbon storage, carbon-sequestration capacities, and GHG emissions under the current and projected future conditions will be assessed using the LULC and ecosystem-disturbance estimates in map format with a spatially explicit biogeochemical ensemble modeling system that incorporates properties of management activities (such as tillage or harvesting) and properties of individual ecosystems (such as elevation, vegetation characteristics, and soil attributes). For aquatic ecosystems, carbon burial in sediments and GHG fluxes are functions of the current and projected future stream flow and sediment transports, and therefore will be assessed using empirical modeling methods. Validation and uncertainty analysis methods described in the methodology will follow established guidelines to assess the quality of the assessment results. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Level II ecoregions map (which delineates 24 ecoregions for the Nation) will be the practical instrument for developing and delivering assessment results. Consequently, the ecoregion will be the reporting unit of the assessment because the mitigation scenarios, assessment results, validation, and uncertainty analysis will be

Open-File Report

Long-term (1986–2015) crop water use characterization over the Upper Rio Grande Basin of United States and Mexico using Landsat-based evapotranspiration

The evaluation of historical water use in the Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB), United States and Mexico, using Landsat-derived actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from 1986 to 2015 is presented here as the first study of its kind to apply satellite observations to quantify long-term, basin-wide crop consumptive use in a large basin. The rich archive of Landsat imagery combined with the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model was used to estimate and map ETa across the basin and over irrigated fields for historical characterization of water-use dynamics. Monthly ETa estimates were evaluated using six eddy-covariance (EC) flux towers showing strong correspondence (r2 > 0.80) with reasonable error rates (root mean square error between 6 and 19 mm/month). Detailed spatiotemporal analysis using peak growing season (June–August) ETa over irrigated areas revealed declining regional crop water-use patterns throughout the basin, a trend reinforced through comparisons with gridded ETa from the Max Planck Institute (MPI). The interrelationships among seven agro-hydroclimatic variables (ETa, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), maximum air temperature (Ta), potential ET (ETo), precipitation, and runoff) are all summarized to support the assessment and context of historical water-use dynamics over 30 years in the URGB.

Colorado, New Mexico, Texas

Simple stated preference questions can enhance transdisciplinary projects: Linking perceived risks with willingness to spray and pay

Transdisciplinary projects can uncover crucial insights on people’s past and future risk-mitigation behavior. We focus on a novel risk context: increasing health threats from ticks on Staten Island, a New York City borough where the combination of high population density and extensive park systems and green spaces has resulted in a rise in locally-acquired tick-transmitted disease cases. We administered a knowledge, attitudes, and practices survey that additionally included simple economic stated preference questions about people’s willingness to spray tick pesticides in the future. We first analyze factors that are correlated with people’s perceptions of two types of risks: exposure to ticks and infection with Lyme disease. Next, we use the nonmarket valuation questions to test people’s willingness to spray and pay as a function of attributes of the hypothetical pesticides, including cost, effectiveness, and type. Across all model specifications, overall willingness to pay (WTP) to spray increases with increases in pesticide effectiveness, as well as with favorable pesticide type (organic). We uncover threshold pesticide effectiveness levels at which WTP to spray turns positive, and we find that lower pesticide effectiveness is required for organic pesticide. Finally, we test how perceived risks and various individual-specific characteristics correlate with WTP to spray. Combinations of higher perceived risks are linked both with higher WTP and lower breakeven pesticide effectiveness. Our work shows that a broad range of variables influence demand for self-protection actions, both directly and indirectly (through their effects on perceived risks). Such insights on people’s tradeoffs carry important policy implications, but they can be missed if economic information is either not elicited or elicited alone.

New York

Effects of northern bobwhite habitat management on avian species of conservation concern

The umbrella species concept is often used as a tool to guide management decisions and focus efforts towards one focal species whose habitat needs overlap that of other species. We assessed this concept in the context of an agriculturally dominant landscape using one of the most well-studied avian species in North America as a target for conservation efforts: Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ). This species is often viewed as an umbrella species for grassland and shrubland bird conservation throughout its native range due to its complex, year-round habitat requirements. We assessed the influence of Northern Bobwhite habitat management on six songbird species of conservation concern in Iowa by evaluating similarities and differences in habitat associations between each species. Our objectives were to (1) assess which vegetation characteristics were most strongly associated with Northern Bobwhite occupancy and (2) evaluate whether those characteristics were also associated with abundance of the focal songbird species. We used occupancy and N-mixture models to assess relationships between vegetation characteristics and Northern Bobwhite occupancy and songbird abundance, respectively. We found that the vegetation characteristics most strongly associated with Northern Bobwhite occupancy probability were the amounts of closed canopy forest, early successional woody vegetation, non-vegetated areas, and percent cover of bare ground. We found that for some of these covariates, including the amounts of forest and non-vegetated area, the effect on focal songbird species abundance aligned with Northern Bobwhite occupancy. For others, including the amount of early successional woody vegetation, the effects differed. This assessment of overlap and variability in habitat associations suggests that Northern Bobwhite-targeted management can provide benefits to other grassland and shrubland birds, but may also come with some trade-offs. This work adds to existing literature, further highlighting the nuances of the umbrella species concept in that land management benefits from the assessment of trade-offs and inclusion of local community dynamics.

Iowa

Characterizing the interface between wild ducks and poultry to evaluate the potential of transmission of avian pathogens

Background Characterizing the interface between wild and domestic animal populations is increasingly recognized as essential in the context of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) that are transmitted by wildlife. More specifically, the spatial and temporal distribution of contact rates between wild and domestic hosts is a key parameter for modeling EIDs transmission dynamics. We integrated satellite telemetry, remote sensing and ground-based surveys to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of indirect contacts between wild and domestic birds to estimate the risk that avian pathogens such as avian influenza and Newcastle viruses will be transmitted between wildlife to poultry. We monitored comb ducks ( Sarkidiornis melanotos melanotos ) with satellite transmitters for seven months in an extensive Afro-tropical wetland (the Inner Niger Delta) in Mali and characterise the spatial distribution of backyard poultry in villages. We modelled the spatial distribution of wild ducks using 250-meter spatial resolution and 8-days temporal resolution remotely-sensed environmental indicators based on a Maxent niche modelling method. Results Our results show a strong seasonal variation in potential contact rate between wild ducks and poultry. We found that the exposure of poultry to wild birds was greatest at the end of the dry season and the beginning of the rainy season, when comb ducks disperse from natural water bodies to irrigated areas near villages. Conclusions Our study provides at a local scale a quantitative evidence of the seasonal variability of contact rate between wild and domestic bird populations. It illustrates a GIS-based methodology for estimating epidemiological contact rates at the wildlife and livestock interface integrating high-resolution satellite telemetry and remote sensing data.

Inner Niger Delta

Capture-recapture survival models taking account of transients

The presence of transient animals, common enough in natural populations, invalidates the estimation of survival by traditional capture- recapture (CR) models designed for the study of residents only. Also, the study of transit is interesting in itself. We thus develop here a class of CR models to describe the presence of transients. In order to assess the merits of this approach we examme the bias of the traditional survival estimators in the presence of transients in relation to the power of different tests for detecting transients. We also compare the relative efficiency of an ad hoc approach to dealing with transients that leaves out the first observation of each animal. We then study a real example using lazuli bunting (Passerina amoena) and, in conclusion, discuss the design of an experiment aiming at the estimation of transience. In practice, the presence of transients is easily detected whenever the risk of bias is high. The ad hoc approach, which yields unbiased estimates for residents only, is satisfactory in a time-dependent context but poorly efficient when parameters are constant. The example shows that intermediate situations between strict 'residence' and strict 'transience' may exist in certain studies. Yet, most of the time, if the study design takes into account the expected length of stay of a transient, it should be possible to efficiently separate the two categories of animals.

Biometrics

A Framework for Long-term Ecological Monitoring in Olympic National Park: Prototype for the Coniferous Forest Biome

This report is the result of a five-year collaboration between scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Olympic Field Station, and the natural resources staff of Olympic National Park to develop a comprehensive strategy for monitoring natural resources of Olympic National Park. Olympic National Park is the National Park Serviceʼs prototype monitoring park, representing parks in the coniferous forest biome. Under the umbrella of the National Park Serviceʼs prototype parks program, U.S. Geological Survey and Olympic National Park staffs are obligated to: develop strategies and designs for monitoring the long-term health and integrity of national park ecosystems with a significant coniferous forest component. design exportable monitoring protocols that can be used by other parks within the coniferous forest biome (i.e., parks having similar environments), and create a demonstration area and ʻcenter of excellenceʼ for assisting other parks in developing ecological monitoring programs. Olympic National Park is part of the North Coast and Cascades Network, a network of seven Pacific Northwestern park units created recently by the National Park Serviceʼs Inventory and Monitoring Program to extend the monitoring of ʻvital signsʼ of park health to all National Park Service units. It is our intent and hope that the monitoring strategies and conceptual models described here will meet the overall purpose of the prototype parks monitoring program in proving useful not only to Olympic National Park, but also to parks within the North Coast and Cascades Network and elsewhere. Part I contains the conceptual design and sampling framework for the prototype long-term monitoring program in Olympic National Park. In this section, we explore key elements of monitoring design that help to ensure the spatial, ecological, and temporal integration of monitoring program elements and discuss approaches used to design an ecosystem-based monitoring program. Basic monitoring components include ecosystem drivers, (e.g., climate, atmospheric inputs, human pressures), indicators of ecosystem integrity (e.g., biogeochemical indicators), known threats (e.g., impacts of introduced mountain goats), and focal or ʻkeyʼ species (e.g., rare or listed species, Roosevelt elk). Monitoring system drivers and key indicators of ecosystem integrity provide the long-term baseline needed to judge what constitutes ʻunnaturalʼ variation in park resources and provide the earliest possible warning of unacceptable change. Monitoring effects of known threats and the status of focal species will provide information useful to park managers for dealing with current park issues. In Part I we describe the process of identifying potential indicators of ecological condition and present conceptual models of park ecosystems. In addition we report results from several workshops held in conjunction with Olympic National Park aimed at identifying potential indicators of change in the parkʼs ecosystem. First, we describe the responses of Olympic National Park staff to the generic question, “What is the most important resource to monitor in Olympic National Park and why?” followed by the responses from resource and land managers from areas adjoining the park. We also catalogue the responses of various expert groups that we asked to help identify the most appropriate system drivers and indicators of change in the Olympic National Park ecosystems. Results of the workshops provided the justification for selecting basic indicators of ecosystem integrity, effects of current threats to park resources, and focal resources of parks to detect both the currently evident and unforeseeable changes in park resources. We conclude Part I by exploring several generic statistical issues relevant to monitoring natural resources in Olympic National Park. Specifically we discuss trade-offs associated with sampling extensively versus sampling intensively in smaller geographic regions and describe a conceptual framework to guide development of a generic sampling frame for monitoring. We recommend partitioning Olympic National Park into three zones of decreasing accessibility to maximize monitoring efficiency. We present examples of how the generic sampling frame could be used to help ensure spatial integration of individual monitoring projects. Part II of the report is a record of the potential monitoring questions and indicators identified to date in our workshops. The presentation is organized according to the major system drivers, components, and processes identified in the intermediate-level working model of the Olympic National Park ecosystem. For each component of the park system, we develop the need and justification for monitoring, articulate park management issues, and describe key resources and ecosystem functions. We also present a pictorial conceptual model of each ecological subsystem, identify monitoring questions, and list potential indicators for each monitoring question. We conclude each section by identifying linkages of indicators to other ecological subsystems in our general ecosystem model, spatial and temporal contexts for monitoring (where and how often to monitor), and research and development needs. Part II represents the most current detailed listing of potential indicators—the material for subsequent discussions of monitoring priorities and selection of indicators for protocol development. Collectively, the sections of this report contain a comprehensive list of the important monitoring questions and potential indicators as well as recommendations for designing an integrated monitoring program. In Part I, Chapter 6 we provide recommendations on how to proceed with the important next steps in the design process: establishing priorities among the many possible monitoring questions and indicators, and beginning to research and design effective long-term monitoring protocols.

Information and Technology Report

Canopy volume removal from oil and gas development activity in the upper Susquehanna River basin in Pennsylvania and New York (USA): An assessment using lidar data

Oil and gas development is changing the landscape in many regions of the United States and globally. However, the nature, extent, and magnitude of landscape change and development, and precisely how this development compares to other ongoing land conversion (e.g. urban/sub-urban development, timber harvest) is not well understood. In this study, we examine land conversion from oil and gas infrastructure development in the upper Susquehanna River basin in Pennsylvania and New York, an area that has experienced much oil and gas development over the past 10 years. We quantified land conversion in terms of forest canopy geometric volume loss in contrast to previous studies that considered only areal impacts. For the first time in a study of this type, we use fine-scale lidar forest canopy geometric models to assess the volumetric change due to forest clearing from oil and gas development and contrast this land change to clear cut forest harvesting, and urban and suburban development. Results show that oil and gas infrastructure development removed a large volume of forest canopy from 2006 to 2013, and this removal spread over a large portion of the study area. Timber operations (clear cutting) on Pennsylvania State Forest lands removed a larger total volume of forest canopy during the same time period, but this canopy removal was concentrated in a smaller area. Results of our study point to the need to consider volumetric impacts of oil and gas development on ecosystems, and to place potential impacts in context with other ongoing land conversions.

New York, Pennsylvania