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USGS2009

Landbird migration in the American West: Recent progress and future research directions

Our knowledge of avian behaviors during the nonbreeding period still lags behind that of the breeding season, but the last decade has witnessed a proliferation in research that has yielded significant progress in understanding migration patterns of North American birds. And, although historically the great majority of migration research has been conducted in the eastern half of the continent, there has been much recent progress on aspects of avian migration in the West. In particular, expanded use of techniques such as radar, plasma metabolites, mist-netting, count surveys, stable isotopes, genetic data, and animal tracking, coupled with an increase in multi-investigator collaborations, have all contributed to this growth of knowledge. There is increasing recognition that migration is likely the most limiting time of year for migratory birds, increasing the importance of continuing to decipher patterns of stopover ecology, identifying critical stopover habitats, and documenting migration routes in the diverse and changing landscapes of the American West. Here, we review and briefly synthesize the latest findings and advances in avian migration and consider research needs to guide future research on migration in the West. ?? 2009 by The Cooper Ornithological Society. All rights reserved.

The Condor↗

USGS2010

Habitat suitability and conservation of the Giant Gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) in the Sacramento Valley of California

Resource managers often have little information regarding the habitat requirements and distribution of rare species. Factor analysis-based habitat suitability models describe the ecological niche of a species and identify locations where these conditions occur on the landscape using existing occurrence data. We used factor analyses to assess the suitability of habitats for Thamnophis gigas (Giant Gartersnake), a rare, threatened species endemic to the Central Valley of California, USA, and to map the locations of habitat suitable for T. gigas in the Sacramento Valley. Factor analyses indicated that the niche of T. gigas is composed of sites near rice agriculture with low stream densities. Sites with high canal densities and near wetlands also appeared suitable, but results for these variables were sensitive to potential sampling bias. In the Sacramento Valley, suitable habitats occur primarily in the central portion of the valley floor. Based upon the results of the factor analyses, recovery planning for T. gigas will require an on-the-ground assessment of the current distribution and abundance of T. gigas, maintaining the few remaining natural wetlands and the practice of rice agriculture in the Sacramento Valley, and studying the effects of agricultural practices and land use changes on populations of T. gigas. ?? 2010 by the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists.

Copeia↗

USGS2010

Habitat suitability and conservation of the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) in the Sacramento Valley of California

Resource managers often have little information regarding the habitat requirements and distribution of rare species. Factor analysis-based habitat suitability models describe the ecological niche of a species and identify locations where these conditions occur on the landscape using existing occurrence data.We used factor analyses to assess the suitability of habitats for Thamnophis gigas (Giant Gartersnake), a rare, threatened species endemic to the Central Valley of California, USA, and to map the locations of habitat suitable for T. gigas in the Sacramento Valley. Factor analyses indicated that the niche of T. gigas is composed of sites near rice agriculture with low stream densities. Sites with high canal densities and near wetlands also appeared suitable, but results for these variables were sensitive to potential sampling bias. In the Sacramento Valley, suitable habitats occur primarily in the central portion of the valley floor. Based upon the results of the factor analyses, recovery planning for T. gigas will require an on-the-ground assessment of the current distribution and abundance of T. gigas, maintaining the few remaining natural wetlands and the practice of rice agriculture in the Sacramento Valley, and studying the effects of agricultural practices and land use changes on populations of T. gigas.

California↗

USGS2025

Cryptic life history diversity supports endangered species recovery in an ultra-urbanized landscape

Urban landscapes are often overlooked in conservation planning, allowing human activities to take precedence in ecosystem management. However, even heavily modified environments can support diverse species profiles, but continued expansion of the human footprint could transform these biodiversity hotspots into ecological traps that serve as hidden catalysts for demographic declines. In the backdrop of one of the world’s most urbanized landscapes-New York City, USA—is a federally endangered population of shortnose sturgeon ( Acipenser brevirostrum ) that has been quietly recovering for several decades despite many demographic threats. Here, we identify a unique behavioral phenotype of shortnose sturgeon that occupies habitats in New York Harbor in late spring and fall, likely using the area to optimize bioenergetic processes. As this study highlights, urbanized environments can be a nexus for cryptic phenotypic diversity which, if overlooked, can disrupt eco-evolutionary processes and contribute to population and species loss.

New York↗

USGS2008

Use of an integrated flow model to estimate ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics at stream biomonitoring sites

We developed an integrated hydroecological model to provide a comprehensive set of hydrologic variables representing five major components of the flow regime at 856 aquatic-invertebrate monitoring sites in New Jersey. The hydroecological model simulates streamflow by routing water that moves overland and through the subsurface from atmospheric delivery to the watershed outlet. Snow accumulation and melt, evapotranspiration, precipitation, withdrawals, discharges, pervious- and impervious-area runoff, and lake storage were accounted for in the water balance. We generated more than 78 flow variables, which describe the frequency, magnitude, duration, rate of change, and timing of flow events. Highly correlated variables were filtered by principal component analysis to obtain a non-redundant subset of variables that explain the majority of the variation in the complete set. This subset of variables was used to evaluate the effect of changes in the flow regime on aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure at 856 biomonitoring sites. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to evaluate variation in aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure across a disturbance gradient. We employed multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to build a series of MLR models that identify the most important environmental and hydrologic variables driving the differences in the aquatic-invertebrate assemblages across the disturbance gradient. The first axis of NMS ordination was significantly related to many hydrologic, habitat, and land-use/land-cover variables, including the average number of annual storms producing runoff, ratio of 25-75% exceedance flow (flashiness), diversity of natural stream substrate, and the percentage of forested land near the stream channel (forest buffer). Modifications in the hydrologic regime as the result of changes in watershed land use appear to promote the retention of highly tolerant aquatic species; in contrast, species that are sensitive to hydrologic instability and other anthropogenic disturbance become much less prevalent. We also found strong relations between an index of invertebrate-assemblage impairment, its component metrics, and the primary disturbance gradient. The process-oriented watershed modeling approach used in this study provides a means to evaluate how natural landscape features interact with anthropogenic factors and assess their effects on flow characteristics and stream ecology. By combining watershed modeling and indirect ordination techniques, we were able to identify components of the hydrologic regime that have a considerable effect on aquatic-assemblage structure and help in developing short- and long-term management measures that mitigate the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in stream systems.

New Jersey↗

USGS2005

Quantile regression reveals hidden bias and uncertainty in habitat models

We simulated the effects of missing information on statistical distributions of animal response that covaried with measured predictors of habitat to evaluate the utility and performance of quantile regression for providing more useful intervals of uncertainty in habitat relationships. These procedures were evaulated for conditions in which heterogeneity and hidden bias were induced by confounding with missing variables associated with other improtant processes, a problem common in statistical modeling of ecological phenomena. Simulations for a large ( N = 10 000) finite population representing grid locations on a landscape demonstrated various forms of hidden bias that might occur when the effect of a measured habitat variable on some animal was confounded with the effect of another unmeasured variable. Quantile (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1) regression parameters for linear models that excluded the important, unmeasured variable revealed bias relative to parameters from the generating model. Depending on whether interactions of the measured and unmeasured variables were negative (interference interactions) or positive (facilitation interactions) in simulations without spatial structuring, either upper (τ > 0.5) or lower (τ < 0.5) quantile regression parameters were less biased than mean rate parameters. Heterogeneous, nonlinear response patterns occurred with correlations between the measured and unmeasured variables. When the unmeasured variable was spatially structured, variation in parameters across quantiles associated with heterogeneous effects of the habitat variable was reduced by modeling the spatial trend surface as a cubic polynomial of location coordinates, but substantial hidden bias remained. Sampling ( n = 20–300) simulations demonstrated that regression quantile estimates and confidence intervals constructed by inverting weighted rank score tests provided valid coverage of these parameters. Local forms of quantile weighting were required for obtaining correct Type I error rates and confidence interval coverage. Quantile regression was used to estimate effects of physical habitat resources on a bivalve ( Macomona liliana ) in the spatially structured landscape on a sandflat in a New Zealand harbor. Confidence intervals around predicted 0.10 and 0.90 quantiles were used to estimate sampling intervals containing 80% of the variation in densities in relation to bed elevation. Spatially structured variation in bivalve counts estimated by a cubic polynomial trend surface remained after accounting for the nonlinear effects of bed elevation, indicating the existence of important spatially structured processes that were not adequately represented by the measured habitat variables.

Ecology↗

USGS2023

AIMS for wildlife: Developing an automated interactive monitoring system to integrate real-time movement and environmental data for true adaptive management

To effectively manage species and habitats at multiple scales, population and land managers require rapid information on wildlife use of managed areas and responses to landscape conditions and management actions. GPS tracking studies of wildlife are particularly informative to species ecology, habitat use, and conservation. Combining GPS data with administrative data and a diverse suite of remotely sensed, geo-referenced environmental (e.g., climatic) data, would more comprehensively inform how animals interact with and utilize habitats and ecosystems and our goal was to create a conceptual model for a system that would accomplish this – the ‘Automated Interactive Monitoring System (AIMS) for Wildlife’. Our objective for this study was to develop a Customized Wildlife Report (CWR) - the first AIMS for Wildlife deliverable product. CWRs collate and summarize our 8-year GPS tracking dataset of ∼11 million locations from 1338 individual (16 species) avifauna and make actionable, real-time data on animal movements and trends in a specific area of interest available to managers and stakeholders for rapid application in day-to-day management. The CWR exemplar presented in this paper was developed to address needs identified by habitat managers of Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge and illustrates the highly specific, information offered and how it contributes to assessing the efficacy of conservation actions while allowing for near real-time adaptive management. The report can be easily customized for any of the thousands of wildlife refuges or regional areas of interest in the United States, emphasizing the broad application of an animal movement data stream. Utilizing diverse, extensive telemetry data streams through scientific collaboration can aid managers and conservation stakeholders with short and long-term research and conservation planning and help address a cadre of issues from local-scale habitat management to improving the understanding of landscape level impacts like drought, wildfire, and climate change on wildlife populations.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2015

Landscapes for energy and wildlife: conservation prioritization for golden eagles across large spatial scales

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publicly available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

Wyoming↗

USGS2024

2023-2024 Coastal sage scrub and chaparral community monitoring for western San Diego County

Western San Diego County is dominated by shrublands supporting biologically diverse native plant and animal communities. Widespread urbanization has led to regional habitat loss and fragmentation, and many species in these shrubland communities are rare, threatened, or endangered. Large-scale, multiple-species conservation planning has resulted in a regional preserve system that focuses on these shrubland communities. Several large-scale threats are leading to type conversion from shrub-dominated to non-native invasive annual grass-dominated vegetation. To understand the changes that are occurring to native shrublands, we have developed a vegetation monitoring program with several components at multiple spatial scales, focused on quantifying coastal sage scrub (CSS) and chaparral vegetation community characteristics. Several drivers of change associated with type conversion of native shrubland to non-native annual grassland have been identified by previous research including increasing fire frequency, nitrogen deposition from air pollution, and prolonged and intense drought associated with changing climate. Loss of ecological integrity indices have been proposed as useful measures of the threat of degradation and type conversion of shrublands in San Diego County. For this study, ecological integrity is defined as a system’s ability to maintain species’ relationships and functions comparable to natural habitat in the region. Previous studies have identified the percent cover of invasive non-native annual grasses as a proxy for overall ecological degradation (loss of integrity) that is consistent across native taxonomic groups. Increased cover of non-native grass is associated with lower integrity of the shrubland vegetation community as shrub-associated plant and animal species are replaced by species preferring grassy and disturbed habitats. The objectives of this CSS and chaparral vegetation community monitoring plan are to: 1) Determine the distribution, composition, structure, and integrity of CSS and chaparral vegetation communities on conserved lands in western San Diego County, 2) Identify whether these attributes of the vegetation communities are changing over time, and 3) Evaluate relationships of known drivers of change (threats) and environmental factors in association with changes in vegetation community attributes. The CSS and chaparral vegetation community monitoring program is divided into four components: 1) vegetation mapping, 2) GIS/remote sensing office analysis of landscape-scale data, 3) permanent field plots using Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and field data collections, and 4) animal and target species surveys and rapid assessment protocols. The first component, which is not detailed in this vegetation monitoring plan, aims to map vegetation communities every 10-15 years based on a classification developed for western San Diego County. High resolution aerial imagery will be used to update the 2012 vegetation map and expand it across the entire study area. The second component uses remote sensing models to annually track ecological integrity of shrublands across the study area and will include a map of areas of change and areas of stability over several decades. These landscape-scale integrity classifications will be used to analyze ecological processes, threats, and abiotic factors relative to changes to shrubland ecological integrity over time and space. The third component includes field surveys of 100 permanent plots across areas historically mapped as shrublands. Surveys in the 1930s mapped vegetation types using plot data. By using this historical classification map, we included areas that have already type-converted from shrubland to non-native annual grassland. The plots were split between CSS (55 plots) and chaparral (45 plots) and stratified into four geographical eco-subregions to guarantee coverage over small patches of habitat along the heavily developed coast. Surveys will include the collection of UAS imagery at a very high resolution. Species-level identifications will be made from the imagery based on a plant list compiled of all species detected in the plot during a thorough field survey by botanists, combined with geo-referenced samples of plant species locations. In addition, herbaceous cover will be estimated in the field using nine 1-m diameter circles (one per subplot) to obtain ocular estimates of cover for each plant species within the circle frame. Soil samples will be collected and analyzed for important element compositions. These data will be analyzed to evaluate plot-level ecological integrity based on species composition and cover. Repeated monitoring will allow evaluation of changes in vegetation attributes over time with known drivers or threats and other environmental factors. In addition, analyses will focus on indicator species and various measures of biological diversity for the vegetation communities. Finally, animal species and rare plants will be assessed using either taxa-based rapid assessment protocols or specialized species-specific protocols for rarer species. The purpose of these assessments is to document the status, habitat, and threat covariates of specific species and confirm the species composition and diversity of animal taxonomic groups (e.g., pollinators). Diversity and abundance of animal species at vegetation plots will be used to refine measures and thresholds of ecological integrity. Rapid assessment protocols for animal taxonomic groups can include multiple detection methods such as, camera traps, cover boards, and bird point counts. Pollinators will be monitored at plots using a protocol currently being developed in conjunction with but separately from this plan. Target rare plant species will be monitored using the regional Inspect and Manage (IMG) protocol that measures the status of rare plant occurrences and habitat and threat covariates over time. Species-specific animal survey methods will be refined as these species are prioritized for future monitoring. The goal of this monitoring program is to classify CSS and chaparral vegetation community integrity, identify areas of degradation across western San Diego County, and characterize drivers, and environmental factors associated with loss of ecological integrity. A combination of vegetation mapping, landscape-scale remote sensing, and field plots will be used to address all the aspects of our research questions. Data compiled and collected will be available to conservation partners to help inform future management decisions.

California↗

USGS2015

Encapsulating model complexity and landscape-scale analyses of state-and-transition simulation models: an application of ecoinformatics and juniper encroachment in sagebrush steppe ecosystems

State-and-transition simulation modeling relies on knowledge of vegetation composition and structure (states) that describe community conditions, mechanistic feedbacks such as fire that can affect vegetation establishment, and ecological processes that drive community conditions as well as the transitions between these states. However, as the need for modeling larger and more complex landscapes increase, a more advanced awareness of computing resources becomes essential. The objectives of this study include identifying challenges of executing state-and-transition simulation models, identifying common bottlenecks of computing resources, developing a workflow and software that enable parallel processing of Monte Carlo simulations, and identifying the advantages and disadvantages of different computing resources. To address these objectives, this study used the ApexRMS® SyncroSim software and embarrassingly parallel tasks of Monte Carlo simulations on a single multicore computer and on distributed computing systems. The results demonstrated that state-and-transition simulation models scale best in distributed computing environments, such as high-throughput and high-performance computing, because these environments disseminate the workloads across many compute nodes, thereby supporting analysis of larger landscapes, higher spatial resolution vegetation products, and more complex models. Using a case study and five different computing environments, the top result (high-throughput computing versus serial computations) indicated an approximate 96.6% decrease of computing time. With a single, multicore compute node (bottom result), the computing time indicated an 81.8% decrease relative to using serial computations. These results provide insight into the tradeoffs of using different computing resources when research necessitates advanced integration of ecoinformatics incorporating large and complicated data inputs and models. - See more at: http://aimspress.com/aimses/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=Environ2015030&flag=1#sthash.p1XKDtF8.dpuf

AIMS Environmental Science↗

USGS2013

Ecological feedbacks can reduce population-level efficacy of wildlife fertility control

1. Anthropogenic stress on natural systems, particularly the fragmentation of landscapes and the extirpation of predators from food webs, has intensified the need to regulate abundance of wildlife populations with management. Controlling population growth using fertility control has been considered for almost four decades, but nearly all research has focused on understanding effects of fertility control agents on individual animals. Questions about the efficacy of fertility control as a way to control populations remain largely unanswered. 2. Collateral consequences of contraception can produce unexpected changes in birth rates, survival, immigration and emigration that may reduce the effectiveness of regulating animal abundance. The magnitude and frequency of such effects vary with species-specific social and reproductive systems, as well as connectivity of populations. Developing models that incorporate static demographic parameters from populations not controlled by contraception may bias predictions of fertility control efficacy. 3. Many population-level studies demonstrate that changes in survival and immigration induced by fertility control can compensate for the reduction in births caused by contraception. The most successful cases of regulating populations using fertility control come from applications of contraceptives to small, closed populations of gregarious and easily accessed species. 4. Fertility control can result in artificial selection pressures on the population and may lead to long-term unintentional genetic consequences. The magnitude of such selection is dependent on individual heritability and behavioural traits, as well as environmental variation. 5. Synthesis and applications . Understanding species' life-history strategies, biology, behavioural ecology and ecological context is critical to developing realistic expectations of regulating populations using fertility control. Before time, effort and funding are invested in wildlife contraception, managers may need to consider the possibility that many species and populations can compensate for reduction in fecundity, and this could minimize any reduction in population growth rate.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2022

Developing common protocols to measure tundra herbivory across spatial scales

Understanding and predicting large-scale ecological responses to global environmental change requires comparative studies across geographic scales with coordinated efforts and standardized methodologies. We designed, applied and assessed standardized protocols to measure tundra herbivory at three spatial scales: plot, site (habitat), and study area (landscape). The plot and site-level protocols were tested in the field during summers 2014-2015 at eleven sites, nine of them comprising warming experimental plots included in the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). The study area protocols were assessed during 2014-2018 at 24 study areas across the Arctic. Our protocols provide comparable and easy-to-implement methods for assessing the intensity of invertebrate herbivory within ITEX plots and for characterizing vertebrate herbivore communities at larger spatial scales. We discuss methodological constraints and make recommendations for how these protocols can be used and how sampling effort can be optimized to obtain comparable estimates of herbivory, both at ITEX sites and at large landscape scales. The application of these protocols across the tundra biome will allow characterizing and comparing herbivore communities across tundra sites and at ecologically relevant spatial scales, providing an important step towards a better understanding of tundra ecosystem responses to large-scale environmental change.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Natural resource management decision-making under climate uncertainty: Building social-ecological resilience in southwestern Colorado

The goal of this project was to facilitate climate change adaptation that contributes to social-ecological resilience, ecosystem and species conservation, and sustainable human communities in southwestern Colorado. The team developed and piloted integrated adaptation planning tools and principles that merge the strengths of the iterative scenario process, the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning framework, institutional analysis, and climate modeling. These tools and principles generated practical strategies and scientific knowledge to advance climate change adaptation in both the Gunnison River Basin and San Juan River Basin and, potentially, other landscapes. A key objective of this project was to work with decision-makers to develop social-ecological adaptation strategies and coordinate actions to reduce the impacts of a changing climate on nature and people. To accomplish this, the project blended science (biophysical and social) and participatory approaches to integrate expert knowledge, land management decision making, and local needs. These adaptation strategies and their creation process were documented by the project team to assist communities and scientists elsewhere who are grappling with the challenges posed by climate change.

Colorado↗

USGS2013

Spatial ecological processes and local factors predict the distribution and abundance of spawning by steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) across a complex riverscape

Processes that influence habitat selection in landscapes involve the interaction of habitat composition and configuration and are particularly important for species with complex life cycles. We assessed the relative influence of landscape spatial processes and local habitat characteristics on patterns in the distribution and abundance of spawning steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a threatened salmonid fish, across ~15,000 stream km in the John Day River basin, Oregon, USA. We used hurdle regression and a multi-model information theoretic approach to identify the relative importance of covariates representing key aspects of the steelhead life cycle (e.g., site access, spawning habitat quality, juvenile survival) at two spatial scales: within 2-km long survey reaches (local sites) and ecological neighborhoods (5 km) surrounding the local sites. Based on Akaike’s Information Criterion, models that included covariates describing ecological neighborhoods provided the best description of the distribution and abundance of steelhead spawning given the data. Among these covariates, our representation of offspring survival (growing-season-degree-days, °C) had the strongest effect size (7x) relative to other predictors. Predictive performances of model-averaged composite and neighborhood-only models were better than a site-only model based on both occurrence (percentage of sites correctly classified = 0.80±0.03 SD, 0.78±0.02 vs. 0.62±0.05, respectively) and counts (root mean square error = 3.37, 3.93 vs. 5.57, respectively). The importance of both temperature and stream flow for steelhead spawning suggest this species may be highly sensitive to impacts of land and water uses, and to projected climate impacts in the region and that landscape context, complementation, and connectivity will drive how this species responds to future environments.

Oregon↗

USGS2009

Seasonal movements and home ranges of white-tailed deer in north-central South Dakota

Knowledge of movement patterns of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780)) inhabiting landscapes intensively modified by agricultural systems is important to the present and future understanding of deer ecology. Little information exists regarding daily and seasonal movements of white-tailed deer in north-central South Dakota. Therefore, our goal was to determine movement patterns and home-range use of female white-tailed deer in north-central South Dakota. From January 2005 to January 2007, 29 adult (>18 months) and 13 yearling (8–18 months) white-tailed deer were monitored for movement using radiotelemetry. We collected 2822 locations, calculated 76 home ranges, and documented 50 seasonal movements. Mean migration distance between summer and winter home ranges was 19.4 km (SE = 2.0 km). Mean 95% home-range size was 10.2 km 2 (SE = 1.2 km 2 , n = 27) during winter and 9.2 km 2 (SE = 1.0 km 2 , n = 49) during summer. Ambient temperature appeared to be a primary cause of seasonal migration. Additionally, movements exhibited by white-tailed deer in north-central South Dakota were influenced by a highly fragmented landscape dominated by row crops and pasture or grassland.

South Dakota↗

USGS2021

Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward‐moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold‐sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical–temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape‐scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical–temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change‐induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2002

Flood pulsing in wetlands: Restoring the natural hydrological balance

The latest cutting-edge research on flood pulsing and wetland restoration in North America. Presenting the latest research from leaders in the field of restoration ecology, Flood Pulsing in Wetlands reflects the current movement to incorporate flood pulsing into wetland restoration efforts. Emphasizing how integral flood pulsing is to successful wetland restoration, the book's contributors provide descriptions of restoration projects across North America in which flood pulsing has been primarily used to restore beneficial hydrodynamic conditions to floodplain areas, and improve or save vegetation, wildlife, and terrain. Detailing the importance and applicability of recreating flood-pulsed conditions on floodplains for successful restoration, the first chapter introduces the concept of flood pulse and its unique role in wetland restoration. The following chapters detail the strategies and results of individual projects and the impact flood pulsing had on the projects' overall goals. Case studies detail the history of each region, such as the Southwest, including the Sonoran Desert communities and the Middle Rio Grande; the Missouri River in Montana; the Illinois River Valley; and the Southeast, including Brushy Lake, Arkansas. Also documented is the most famous case of flood pulsing used in the restoration of an entire landscape, the Kissimmee River project. Approaches used to restore specific plant and animal populations, the unique ecological concerns of each region, and the future outlook for each area are fully described. Extensive bibliographies for each chapter make Flood Pulsing in Wetlands: Restoring the Natural Hydrological Balance the essential reference for restoration ecologists, consultants in wetland restoration, government and restoration agency employees, land managers, ecologists, foresters, and geologists.

Book↗

USGS2004

Tigers and their prey: Predicting carnivore densities from prey abundance

The goal of ecology is to understand interactions that determine the distribution and abundance of organisms. In principle, ecologists should be able to identify a small number of limiting resources for a species of interest, estimate densities of these resources at different locations across the landscape, and then use these estimates to predict the density of the focal species at these locations. In practice, however, development of functional relationships between abundances of species and their resources has proven extremely difficult, and examples of such predictive ability are very rare. Ecological studies of prey requirements of tigers Panthera tigris led us to develop a simple mechanistic model for predicting tiger density as a function of prey density. We tested our model using data from a landscape-scale long-term (1995-2003) field study that estimated tiger and prey densities in 11 ecologically diverse sites across India. We used field techniques and analytical methods that specifically addressed sampling and detectability, two issues that frequently present problems in macroecological studies of animal populations. Estimated densities of ungulate prey ranged between 5.3 and 63.8 animals per km 2 . Estimated tiger densities (3.2-16.8 tigers per 100 km 2 ) were reasonably consistent with model predictions. The results provide evidence of a functional relationship between abundances of large carnivores and their prey under a wide range of ecological conditions. In addition to generating important insights into carnivore ecology and conservation, the study provides a potentially useful model for the rigorous conduct of macroecological science.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗