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USGS2007

Red shiner invasion and hybridization with blacktail shiner in the upper Coosa River, USA

Human disturbance increases the invasibility of lotic ecosystems and the likelihood of hybridization between invasive and native species. We investigated whether disturbance contributed to the invasion of red shiner (Cyprinella lutrensis) and their hybridization with native blacktail shiner (C. venusta stigmatura) in the Upper Coosa River System (UCRS). Historical records indicated that red shiners and hybrids rapidly dispersed in the UCRS via large, mainstem rivers since the mid to late 1990s. We measured the occurrence and abundance of parental species and hybrids near tributary-mainstem confluences and characterized populations at these incipient contact zones by examining variation across morphological traits and molecular markers. Red shiners represented only 1.2% of total catch in tributaries yet introgression was widespread with hybrids accounting for 34% of total catch. Occurrence of red shiners and hybrids was highly correlated with occurrence of blacktail shiners, indicating that streams with native populations are preferentially colonized early in the invasion and that hybridization is a key process in the establishment of red shiners and their genome in new habitats. Tributary invasion was driven by post-F1 hybrids with proportionately greater genomic contributions from blacktail shiner. Occurrence of red shiners and hybrids and the relative abundance of hybrids significantly increased with measures of human disturbance including turbidity, catchment agricultural land use, and low dissolved oxygen concentration. Red shiners are a significant threat to Southeast Cyprinella diversity, given that 41% of these species hybridize with red shiner, that five southeastern drainages are invaded, and that these drainages are increasingly disturbed by urbanization. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Biological Invasions↗

USGS2024

Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush) origin, behavior, and habitat residency in Sherbrooke Lake, Nova Scotia, Canada

The southeastern edge of the Lake Trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) range extends to Nova Scotia (NS), Canada, including Sherbrooke Lake, Lunenburg County. These Lake Trout may be of native origin; however, the putatively native population was historically supplemented by stocking from nonindigenous strains. To determine genetic origin of this population, 25 Lake Trout from Sherbrooke Lake were used to compare genetic likeness to populations that had been stocked into the lake. Lake Trout of Sherbrooke Lake were determined to be highly genetically distinct from source populations in Ontario, Manitoba, New York, and Vermont, suggesting that the extant population is of native origin. To identify suitable habitat of Lake Trout in Sherbrooke Lake, acoustic telemetry was used to track the depth and temperature residency of 11 Lake Trout in tandem with measuring lake bathymetric and water column temperature and oxygen. During spring and summer, 2022, Lake Trout occupied a hypolimnetic residency, ranging from 11 to 22 m of depth and 8.5 to 10.0 °C. Suitable conditions for Lake Trout were available in the south basin. The main basin, containing ~ 80% of the lake’s volume, was unstratified and unsuitable for Lake Trout. The effects of Hurricane Fiona caused the hypolimnion in the south basin to shrink via the thermal mixing of the epilimnion, forcing adult Lake Trout to a depth range of 16–18 m for ~ 1 month. During this time, suitable Lake Trout habitat comprised only ~ 0.5% of the total volume of Sherbrooke Lake.

Nova Scotia↗

USGS2011

On valuing patches: Estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modelling

Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture–recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use ‘contribution metrics’ to infer demographic connectedness among eight local populations of banner-tailed kangaroo rats, to assess their demographic closure, and to investigate sources of variation in these contributions. Using a 7 year dataset, we show that: (i) local populations are relatively independent demographically, and contributions to local population growth via dispersal within the system decline with distance; (ii) growth contributions via local survival and recruitment are greater for adults than juveniles, while contributions involving dispersal are greater for juveniles; (iii) central populations rely more on local recruitment and survival than peripheral populations; (iv) contributions involving dispersal are not clearly related to overall metapopulation density; and (v) estimated contributions from outside the system are unexpectedly large. Our analytical framework can classify metapopulations on a continuum between demographic independence and panmixia, detect hidden population growth contributions, and make inference about other population linkage forms, including rescue effects and source–sink structures. Finally, we discuss differences between demographic and genetic population linkage patterns for our system.

Arizona↗

USGS2018

Plasticity in physiological condition of female brown bears across diverse ecosystems

Variation in life history strategies facilitates the near global distribution of mammals by expanding realized niche width. We investigated physiological plasticity in the spring body composition of adult female brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) across 4 diverse Alaskan ecosystems. Brown bears are a highly intelligent omnivore with a historic range spanning much of North America, Europe, and Asia. We hypothesized that body mass, fat mass, lean mass, and total caloric content would increase across populations with increasing food resource availability. Throughout their range, brown bears enter a period of torpor during winter months, decreasing their metabolic rate as an adaptation to this period of reduced food availability. They also give birth to and nourish offspring during this time. Due to this specific life history strategy, we further hypothesized that proportional body fat and the proportion of total calories derived from fat would be consistent across populations. Our results supported our first hypothesis: body, fat, and lean masses, and caloric content of bears across populations increased with the quality and abundance of available food. However, the proportional body fat content and proportion of calories from fat differed across populations indicating population-specific strategies to meet the demands of reduced seasonal food availability, offspring production and rearing, and climate as well as some plasticity to respond to environmental change or ecosystem perturbations. Investigations of body condition and energetics benefit from combined assessments of absolute, proportional, and caloric metrics to understand the nuances of brown bear physiological dynamics across and within populations.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Genetic assessment of the effects of streamscape succession on coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch colonization in recently deglaciated streams

Measures of genetic diversity within and among populations and historical geomorphological data on stream landscapes were used in model simulations based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to examine hypotheses of the relative importance of stream features (geomorphology and age) associated with colonization events and gene flow for coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch breeding in recently deglaciated streams (50–240 years b.p .) in Glacier Bay National Park (GBNP), Alaska. Population estimates of genetic diversity including heterozygosity and allelic richness declined significantly and monotonically from the oldest and largest to youngest and smallest GBNP streams. Interpopulation variance in allele frequency increased with increasing distance between streams ( r = 0·435, P < 0·01) and was inversely related to stream age ( r = –0·281, P < 0·01). The most supported model of colonization involved ongoing or recent (<10 generations before sampling) colonization originating from large populations outside Glacier Bay proper into all other GBNP streams sampled. Results here show that sustained gene flow from large source populations is important to recently established O. kisutch metapopulations. Studies that document how genetic and demographic characteristics of newly founded populations vary associated with successional changes in stream habitat are of particular importance to and have significant implications for, restoration of declining or repatriation of extirpated populations in other regions of the species' native range.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Assessment of metal and trace element contamination in water, sediment, plants, macroinvertebrates, and fish in Tavasci Marsh, Tuzigoot National Monument, Arizona

Tavasci Marsh is a large freshwater marsh within the Tuzigoot National Monument in central Arizona. It is the largest freshwater marsh in Arizona that is unconnected to the Colorado River and is designated as an Important Bird Area by the Audubon Society. The marsh has been altered significantly by previous land use and the monument’s managers are evaluating the restoration of the marsh. In light of historical mining activities located near the marsh from the first half of the 20th century, evaluations of water, sediment, plant, and aquatic biota in the marsh were conducted. The evaluations were focused on nine metals and trace elements commonly associated with mining and other anthropogenic activities (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn) together with isotopic analyses to understand the presence, sources and timing of water and sediment contaminants to the marsh and the occurrence in aquatic plants, dragonfly larvae, and fish. Results of water analyses indicate that there were two distinct sources of water contributing to the marsh during the study: one from older high elevation recharge entering the marsh at Shea Spring (as well as a number of unnamed seeps and springs on the northeastern edge of the marsh) and the other from younger low elevation recharge or from Pecks Lake. Water concentrations for arsenic exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary drinking water standard of 10 μg/L at all sampling sites. Surface waters at Tavasci Marsh may contain conditions favorable for methylmercury production. All surficial and core sediment samples exceeded or were within sample concentration variability of at least one threshold sediment quality guideline for As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn. Several sediment sites were also above or were within sample concentration variability of severe or probable effect sediment quality guidelines for As, Cd, and Cu. Three sediment cores collected in the marsh have greater metal and trace element concentrations at depth for Bi, Cd, Cu, Hg, In, Pb, Sb, Sn, Te, and Zn. Radioisotope dating indicates that the elevated metal and trace element concentrations are associated with sediments deposited before 1963. Arsenic concentration was greater in cattail roots compared with surrounding sediment at Tavasci Marsh. Concentrations of As, Ni, and Se from yellow bullhead catfish (Ameiurus natalis) in Tavasci Marsh exceeded the 75th percentile of several other regional studies. Mercury concentration in dragonfly larvae and fish from Tavasci Marsh were similar to or greater than in Tavasci Marsh sediment. Future work includes a biologic risk assessment utilizing the data collected in this study to provide the monument management with additional information for their restoration plan.

Arizona↗

USGS2014

Island history affects faunal composition: the treeshrews (Mammalia: Scandentia: Tupaiidae) from the Mentawai and Batu Islands, Indonesia

The Mentawai and Batu Island groups off the west coast of Sumatra have a complicated geological and biogeographical history. The Batu Islands have shared a connection with the Sumatran ‘mainland’ during periods of lowered sea level, whereas the Mentawai Islands, despite being a similar distance from Sumatra, have remained isolated from Sumatra, and probably from the Batu Islands as well. These contrasting historical relationships to Sumatra have influenced the compositions of the respective mammalian faunas of these island groups. Treeshrews (Scandentia, Tupaiidae) from these islands have, at various times in their history, been recognized as geographically circumscribed populations of a broadly distributed Tupaia glis, subspecies, or distinct species. We used multivariate analyses of measurements from the skull and hands to compare the island populations from Siberut (Mentawai Islands) and Tanahbala (Batu Islands) with the geographically adjacent species from the southern Mentawai Islands (T. chrysogaster) and Sumatra (T. ferruginea). Results from both the skull and manus of the Siberut population show that it is most similar to T. chrysogaster, whereas the Tanahbala population is more similar to T. ferruginea, confirming predictions based on island history. These results are further corroborated by mammae counts. Based on these lines of evidence, we include the Siberut population in T. chrysogaster and the Tanahbala population in T. ferruginea. Our conclusions expand the known distributions of both the Mentawai and Sumatran species. The larger geographical range of the endangered T. chrysogaster has conservation implications for this Mentawai endemic, so populations and habitat should be re-evaluated on each of the islands it inhabits. However, until such a re-evaluation is conducted, we recommend that the IUCN Red List status of this species be changed from ‘Endangered’ to ‘Data Deficient’.

Mentawai;Batu Islands↗

USGS2010

Patch dynamics and the timing of colonization-abandonment events by male Kirtland’s Warblers in an early succession habitat

Habitat colonization and abandonment affects the distribution of a species in space and time, ultimately influencing the duration of time habitat is used and the total area of habitat occupied in any given year. Both aspects have important implications to long-term conservation planning. The importance of patch isolation and area to colonization–extinction events is well studied, but little information exists on how changing regional landscape structure and population dynamics influences the variability in the timing of patch colonization and abandonment events. We used 26 years of Kirtland’s Warbler ( Dendroica kirtlandii ) population data taken during a habitat restoration program (1979–2004) across its historical breeding range to examine the influence of patch attributes and temporal large-scale processes, specifically the rate of habitat turnover and fraction of occupied patches, on the year-to-year timing of patch colonization and abandonment since patch origin. We found the timing of patch colonization and abandonment was influenced by patch and large-scale regional factors. In this system, larger patches were typically colonized earlier (i.e., at a younger age) and abandoned later than smaller patches. Isolated patches (i.e., patches farther from another occupied patch) were generally colonized later and abandoned earlier. Patch habitat type affected colonization and abandonment; colonization occurred at similar patch ages between plantation and wildfire areas (9 and 8.5 years, respectively), but plantations were abandoned at earlier ages (13.9 years) than wildfire areas (16.4 years) resulting in shorter use. As the fraction of occupied patches increased, patches were colonized and abandoned at earlier ages. Patches were abandoned at older ages when the influx of new habitat patches was at low and high rates. Our results provide empirical support for the temporal influence of patch dynamics (i.e., patch destruction, creation, and succession) on local colonization and extinction processes that help explain large-scale patterns of habitat occupancy. Results highlight the need for practitioners to consider the timing of habitat restoration as well as total amount and spatial arrangement of habitat to sustain populations.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2022

The population genetics of the causative agent of snake fungal disease indicate recent introductions to the USA

Snake fungal disease (SFD; ophidiomycosis), caused by the pathogen Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola ( Oo ), has been documented in wild snakes in North America and Eurasia, and is considered an emerging disease in the eastern United States of America. However, a lack of historical disease data has made it challenging to determine whether Oo is a recent arrival to the USA or whether SFD emergence is due to other factors. Here, we examined the genomes of 82 Oo strains to determine the pathogen’s history in the eastern USA. Oo strains from the USA formed a clade (Clade II) distinct from European strains (Clade I), and molecular dating indicated that these clades diverged too recently (approximately 2,000 years ago) for transcontinental dispersal of Oo to have occurred via natural snake movements across Beringia. A lack of nonrecombinant intermediates between clonal lineages in Clade II indicates that Oo has actually been introduced multiple times to North America from an unsampled source population, and molecular dating indicates that several of these introductions occurred within the last few hundred years. Molecular dating also indicated that the most common Clade II clonal lineages have expanded recently in the USA, with time of most recent common ancestor mean estimates ranging from 1985 to 2007 CE. The presence of Clade II in captive snakes worldwide demonstrates a potential mechanism of introduction and highlights that additional incursions are likely unless action is taken to reduce the risk of pathogen translocation and spillover into wild snake populations.

PLoS Biology↗

USGS2010

Sedimentation, sediment quality, and upstream channel stability, John Redmond Reservoir, east-central Kansas, 1964-2009

A combination of available bathymetric-survey information, bottom-sediment coring, and historical streamgage information was used to investigate sedimentation, sediment quality, and upstream channel stability for John Redmond Reservoir, east-central Kansas. Ongoing sedimentation is reducing the ability of the reservoir to serve several purposes including flood control, water supply, and recreation. The total estimated volume and mass of bottom sediment deposited between 1964 and 2009 in the conservation pool of the reservoir was 1.46 billion cubic feet and 55.8 billion pounds, respectively. The estimated sediment volume occupied about 41 percent of the conservation-pool, water-storage capacity of the reservoir. Water-storage capacity in the conservation pool has been lost to sedimentation at a rate of about 1 percent annually. Mean annual net sediment deposition since 1964 in the conservation pool of the reservoir was estimated to be 1.24 billion pounds per year. Mean annual net sediment yield from the reservoir basin was estimated to be 411,000 pounds per square mile per year Information from sediment cores shows that throughout the history of John Redmond Reservoir, total nitrogen concentrations in the deposited sediment generally were uniform indicating consistent nitrogen inputs to the reservoir. Total phosphorus concentrations in the deposited sediment were more variable than total nitrogen indicating the possibility of changing phosphorus inputs to the reservoir. As the principal limiting factor for primary production in most freshwater environments, phosphorus is of particular importance because increased inputs can contribute to accelerated reservoir eutrophication and the production of algal toxins and taste-and-odor compounds. The mean annual net loads of total nitrogen and total phosphorus deposited in the bottom sediment of the reservoir were estimated to be 2,350,000 pounds per year and 1,030,000 pounds per year, respectively. The estimated mean annual net yields of total nitrogen and total phosphorus from the reservoir basin were 779 pounds per square mile per year and 342 pounds per square mile per year, respectively. Trace element concentrations in the bottom sediment of John Redmond Reservoir generally were uniform over time. As is typical for eastern Kansas reservoirs, arsenic, chromium, and nickel concentrations typically exceeded the threshold-effects guidelines, which represent the concentrations above which toxic biological effects occasionally occur. Trace element concentrations did not exceed the probable-effects guidelines (available for eight trace elements), which represent the concentrations above which toxic biological effects usually or frequently occur. Organochlorine compounds either were not detected or were detected at concentrations that were less than the threshold-effects guidelines. Stream channel banks, compared to channel beds, likely are a more important source of sediment to John Redmond Reservoir from the upstream basin. Other sediment sources include surface-soil erosion in the basin and shoreline erosion in the reservoir.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

Hawai'i↗

USGS1994

Seabird population trends along the west coast of North America: Causes and the extent of regional concordance

We compared trends in breeding population size among cormorants, gulls, alcids, and others, among the Farallon Islands, and sites in northern California and Washington, Gulf of Alaska, and Bering Sea, but in most cases only during the last two decades. For a given species, trends were usually concordant within the same oceanographic domain, except for Rhinoceros Auklet, which increased across all domains in its northeastern Pacific range. Overall, humans and their domestic animals have had severe negative impacts to individual islands, but recent restoration efforts have had spectacular results. On the other hand, the California Current and the eastern Bering Sea now seem unable to support historic populations of natural, top-trophic predators. The major factor responsible appears to be overfishing by humans of important seabird prey, especially, in a period when climate has been unstable. Notable trends indicating these general patterns were as follows: 1) The Ashy Storm-Petrel on the Farallon Islands, where 80% of this species breeds, may have decreased in response to the increase of gulls in the storm-petrel breeding habitat. 2) Brandt's and Pelagic cormorants in the central California Current declined radically owing to El Nino and antropogenic factors in the early 1980s, and have since failed to recover, contrary to trends in the 1970s; farther north, populations fluctuated slightly but at low levels during this period. 3) Large Larus gulls have increased. 4) Common Murres in the central and northern portions of the California Current exhibited a marked decline during the early 1980s and have since failed to recover. 5) Most Common Murre populations in the Gulf of Alaska appear to be stable; whereas those in the eastern Bering Sea are decreasing. 6) Rhinoceros Auklet has increased throughout its range and has (re-)colonized new sites in the southern portion of it. 7) Tufted Puffin has ceased recovery in the California Current, but in Alaska it has continued to recover from former anthropogenic impacts. 8) Cassin's Auklet has declined in the central California Current region.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

USGS2022

The past, present, and future of coral reef growth in the Florida Keys

Coral-reef degradation is driving global-scale reductions in reef-building capacity and the ecological, geological, and socioeconomic functions it supports. The persistence of those essential functions will depend on whether coral-reef management is able to rebalance the competing processes of reef accretion and erosion. Here, we reconstructed census-based carbonate budgets of 46 reefs throughout the Florida Keys from 1996 to 2019. We evaluated the environmental and ecological drivers of changing budget states and compared historical trends in reef-accretion potential to millennial-scale baselines of accretion from reef cores and future projections with coral restoration. We found that historically, most reefs had positive carbonate budgets, and many had reef-accretion potential comparable to the ~3 mm year −1 average accretion rate during the peak of regional reef building ~7000 years ago; however, declines in reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. corals following a series of thermal stress events and coral disease outbreaks resulted in a shift from positive to negative budgets for most reefs in the region. By 2019, only ~15% of reefs had positive net carbonate production. Most of those reefs were in inshore, Lower Keys patch-reef habitats with low water clarity, supporting the hypothesis that environments with naturally low irradiance may provide a refugia from thermal stress. We caution that our estimated carbonate budgets are likely overly optimistic; comparison of reef-accretion potential to measured accretion from reef cores suggests that, by not accounting for the role of nonbiological physical and chemical erosion, census-based carbonate budgets may underestimate total erosion by ~1 mm year −1 (−1.15 kg CaCO 3 m −2 year −1 ). Although the present state of Florida's reefs is dire, we demonstrate that the restoration of reef-building corals has the potential to help mitigate declines in reef accretion in some locations, which could allow some key ecosystem functions to be maintained until the threat of global climate change is addressed.

Florida↗

USGS2018

Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks

In the event of a new infectious disease outbreak, mathematical and simulation models are commonly used to inform policy by evaluating which control strategies will minimize the impact of the epidemic. In the early stages of such outbreaks, substantial parameter uncertainty may limit the ability of models to provide accurate predictions, and policymakers do not have the luxury of waiting for data to alleviate this state of uncertainty. For policymakers, however, it is the selection of the optimal control intervention in the face of uncertainty, rather than accuracy of model predictions, that is the measure of success that counts. We simulate the process of real-time decision-making by fitting an epidemic model to observed, spatially-explicit, infection data at weekly intervals throughout two historical outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease, UK in 2001 and Miyazaki, Japan in 2010, and compare forward simulations of the impact of switching to an alternative control intervention at the time point in question. These are compared to policy recommendations generated in hindsight using data from the entire outbreak, thereby comparing the best we could have done at the time with the best we could have done in retrospect. Our results show that the control policy that would have been chosen using all the data is also identified from an early stage in an outbreak using only the available data, despite high variability in projections of epidemic size. Critically, we find that it is an improved understanding of the locations of infected farms, rather than improved estimates of transmission parameters, that drives improved prediction of the relative performance of control interventions. However, the ability to estimate undetected infectious premises is a function of uncertainty in the transmission parameters. Here, we demonstrate the need for both real-time model fitting and generating projections to evaluate alternative control interventions throughout an outbreak. Our results highlight the use of using models at outbreak onset to inform policy and the importance of state-dependent interventions that adapt in response to additional information throughout an outbreak.

PLOS Computational Biology↗

USGS2008

Determination of Baseline Periods of Record for Selected Streamflow-Gaging Stations in New Jersey for Determining Ecologically Relevant Hydrologic Indices (ERHI)

Hydrologic changes in New Jersey stream basins resulting from human activity can affect the flow and ecology of the streams. To assess future changes in streamflow resulting from human activity an understanding of the natural variability of streamflow is needed. The natural variability can be classified using Ecologically Relevant Hydrologic Indices (ERHIs). ERHIs are defined as selected streamflow statistics that characterize elements of the flow regime that substantially affect biological health and ecological sustainability. ERHIs are used to quantitatively characterize aspects of the streamflow regime, including magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, and rate of change. Changes in ERHI values can occur as a result of human activity, and changes in ERHIs over time at various stream locations can provide information about the degree of alteration in aquatic ecosystems at or near those locations. New Jersey streams can be divided into four classes (A, B, C, or D), where streams with similar ERHI values (determined from cluster analysis) are assigned the same stream class. In order to detect and quantify changes in ERHIs at selected streamflow-gaging stations, a 'baseline' period is needed. Ideally, a baseline period is a period of continuous daily streamflow record at a gaging station where human activity along the contributing stream reach or in the stream's basin is minimal. Because substantial urbanization and other development had already occurred before continuous streamflow-gaging stations were installed, it is not possible to identify baseline periods that meet this criterion for many reaches in New Jersey. Therefore, the baseline period for a considerably altered basin can be defined as a period prior to a substantial human-induced change in the drainage basin or stream reach (such as regulations or diversions), or a period during which development did not change substantially. Index stations (stations with minimal urbanization) were defined as streamflow-gaging stations in basins that contain less than 15 percent urban land use throughout the period of continuous streamflow record. A minimum baseline period of record for each stream class was determined by comparing the variability of selected ERHIs among consecutive 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year time increments for index stations. On the basis of this analysis, stream classes A and D were assigned a minimum of 20 years of continuous record as a baseline period and stream classes B and C, a minimum of 10 years. Baseline periods were calculated for 85 streamflow-gaging stations in New Jersey with 10 or more years of continuous daily streamflow data, and the values of 171 ERHIs also were calculated for these baseline periods for each station. Baseline periods were determined by using historical streamflow-gaging station data, estimated changes in impervious surface in the drainage basin, and statistically significant changes in annual base flow and runoff. Historical records were reviewed to identify years during which regulation, diversions, or withdrawals occurred in the drainage basins. Such years were not included in baseline periods of record. For some sites, the baseline period of record was shorter than the minimum period of record specified for the given stream class. In such cases, the baseline period was rated as 'poor'. Impervious surface was used as an indicator of urbanization and change in streamflow characteristics owing to increases in storm runoff and decreases in base flow. Percentages of impervious surface were estimated for 85 streamflow-gaging stations from available municipal population-density data by using a regression model. Where the period of record was sufficiently long, all years after the impervious surface exceeded 10 to 20 percent were excluded from the baseline period. The percentage of impervious surface also was used as a criterion in assigning qualitative ratings to baseline periods. Changes in trends of annual base fl

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2026

Long lives, short futures: Freshwater turtle and tortoise imports to the United States highlight global trade and conservation challenges

Global trade of freshwater turtles and tortoises presents substantial conservation, biosecurity, and regulatory challenges, particularly for long-lived species that are already highly imperiled. While the United States has historically played a key role in supplying the international chelonian trade, investigations into its role as an importer remain limited. We used import data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Law Enforcement Management Information System (LEMIS) between 2000 and 2022 to evaluate the trade of freshwater turtles and tortoises. Over 2.5 million individuals were imported into the United States during this period, comprising 172 species that are likely imported for the pet trade, food, and traditional medicine markets. Reported annual imports for freshwater turtles increased until approximately 2013 and decreased thereafter, whereas reported annual imports for tortoises have remained relatively constant. Two species, Chinese softshell turtles ( Pelodiscus sinensis ) and Horsfield's tortoises ( Testudo horsfieldii ) represent 62.9% of all imports. Imported species were largely classified as Vulnerable, Endangered, or Critically Endangered by the IUCN Red List, yet the conservation status of a concerning number of species ( n = 45; 26.2%) has not been evaluated. Many imports appear to be sourced from wild populations (28.3% of freshwater turtles, 71.3% of tortoises); however, captive-sourced imports increased significantly over time across both groups. Import volumes raise concerns regarding the sustainability of freshwater turtle and tortoise trade, the potential for invasive species establishment, and disease spread. Our results highlight the need for updated IUCN assessments, verification of trade records, and strengthening of biosecurity screening at U.S. ports of entry.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2025

Widespread dispersal of a human commensal across the Pacific: Reconstructing the human-mediated invasion history of the house gecko (Hemidactylus frenatus)

The spread of human commensal species is intricately tied to human movements and historical events. Through waves of human migrations, colonization, trade routes, commercial activities, and war, humans have redistributed species from their native ranges to widely scattered areas across the Pacific. Deciphering the invasion history of recent human-mediated introductions is challenging due to similar genetic signatures arising from these factors, which complicates the identification of specific pathways or sources. The extensive timeline of human events in the Pacific further compounds this challenge, potentially leading to numerous introductions from various regions over an extended period. The house gecko ( Hemidactylus frenatus ), a human commensal native to Southeast Asia, is now widespread in the Pacific region. While its current range is often attributed to activities during and following World War II (WWII), its invasion history necessitates a finer-scale dissection given the dynamic and extensive history of human-mediated introductions in the Pacific. We combine population genetics, phylogenetics, and approximate Bayesian computation to infer the invasion history of the house gecko from its native to its introduced range in the Pacific. Patterns of differentiation across native and introduced populations align with the extent of each region’s wartime involvement and the invasion history reconstruction supports the predicted chronology of introductions given a war-induced spread. This marks the first comprehensive genetic assessment of the house gecko’s invasion history in the Pacific and provides evidence in support of an initial spread across the Pacific consistent with WWII activities.

Biological Invasions↗

USGS2007

Historic distribution and challenges to bison recovery in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Ecologists and conservationists have long assumed that large grazers, including bison ( Bison bison ), did not occur in post-Pleistocene southwestern North America. This perception has been influential in framing the debate over conservation and land use in the northern Chihuahuan Desert. The lack of an evolutionary history of large grazers is being used to challenge the validity of ranching as a conservation strategy and to limit the protection and reintroduction of bison as a significant component of desert grassland ecosystems. Archeological records and historical accounts from Mexican archives from AD 700 to the 19th century document that the historic range of the bison included northern Mexico and adjoining areas in the United States. The Janos-Hidalgo bison herd, one of the few free-ranging bison herds in North America, has moved between Chihuahua, Mexico, and New Mexico, United States, since at least the 1920s. The persistence of this cross-border bison herd in Chihuahuan Desert grasslands and shrublands demonstrates that the species can persist in desert landscapes. Additional lines of evidence include the existence of grazing-adapted grasslands and the results of experimental studies that document declines in vegetation density and diversity following the removal of large grazers. The Janos-Hidalgo herd was formed with animals from various sources at the turn of the 19th century. Yet the future of the herd is compromised by differing perceptions of the ecological and evolutionary role of bison in the Desert Grasslands of North America. In Mexico they are considered native and are protected by federal law, whereas in New Mexico, they are considered non-native livestock and therefore lack conservation status or federal protection. Evidence written in Spanish of the presence of bison south of the accepted range and evidence from the disciplines of archaeology and history illustrate how differences in language and academic disciplines, in addition to international boundaries, have acted as barriers in shaping comprehensive approaches to conservation. Bison recovery in the region depends on binational cooperation.

Arizona, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, New Mexico,↗